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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Diet composition, quality and overlap of sympatric American pronghorn and gemsbok

Species with a long evolutionary history of sympatry often have mechanisms for resource partitioning that reduce competition. However, introduced non-native ungulates often compete with native ungulates and competitive effects can be exacerbated in arid regions due to low primary productivity. Our objectives were to characterize diet composition, quality, and overlap between American pronghorn Antilocapra americana and introduced non-native gemsbok Oryx gazella in southcentral New Mexico, USA. Severe drought occurred between 2010 and 2011, which allowed us to evaluate drought impacts on diet composition, quality, and overlap. Using feces collected from each species, we assessed diet composition and overlap with microhistological analysis and diet quality using fecal nitrogen (FN) and fecal 2,6-diaminopimelic acid (FDAPA). Pronghorn diet was primarily composed of shrubs in the cool—dry season (64.5%) then shifted to forbs in the warm—dry (64.7%) and warm—wet (54.1%) seasons. Pronghorn diet also shifted to shrubs during drought (50.7%). Gemsbok diets were evenly distributed across forage types. Fifty-three percent of the species of plants consumed by pronghorn and gemsbok were shared; diet overlap averaged 0.44 ± 0.06 (SE) and 0.49 ± 0.06 during the warm—dry seasons of 2010 and 2011, respectively. During drought, key forage species shared between pronghorn and gemsbok included yucca Yucca spp., prickly pear Opuntia spp., globemallow Sphaeralcea coccinea and horsenettle Solanum elaeagnifolium, comprising 50% of the pronghorn and 40% of the gemsbok diets. Fecal nitrogen and FDAPA decreased in pronghorn by 26% and 27% between the warm—dry season of 2010 (non-drought) and the warm—dry season of 2011 (drought), respectively. Drought had little effect on dietary quality for gemsbok. Gemsbok can use forage with lower nutritional content giving them an advantage over pronghorn, particularly during drought periods. Pronghorn are more dependent upon precipitation, which may be important to consider in light of increasing drought frequency associated with climate change.

New Mexico↗
USGS2018

Chronic wasting disease detection and mortality sources in semi-protected deer population

Surveillance for wildlife diseases is essential for assessing population dynamics of ungulates, especially in free-ranging populations where infected animals are difficult to sample. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an emerging infectious disease of concern because of the potential for substantial negative effects on populations of cervids. Variability in the likelihood that CWD is detected could invalidate traditional estimators for prevalence. In some instances, deer located after death cannot be tested for infectious diseases, including CWD, because of lack of availability or condition of appropriate tissues. We used various methods to detect infectious diseases that could cause mortality for deer Odocoileus spp. residing in Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota, USA, and we report survival estimates for animals in this population. We included 34 monthly encounters of deer resightings and 67 mortalities. We tested live deer by tonsillar biopsy for CWD and estimated pooled prevalence (mean ± SE) at 5.6 ± 3.0% over the three-year study. Live deer potentially had exposure to several infectious diseases, including bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease, bovine viral diarrhea, West Nile virus, and malignant catarrhal fever, but no apparent morbidity or mortality from those diseases. We tested survival and influence of covariates, including age and sex, using known-fate analysis in Program MARK. Those data best supported a model with time-invariant encounter probability and an annual survival of 72.8%. Even without direct pressure from hunting within the park, average life expectancy in this population was 3.2 years. Only 68% of mortalities contained sufficient material for CWD sampling (because of predation and scavenger activity) and >42% of these were CWD-positive. These findings underscore the possible biases in postmortem surveillance estimates of disease prevalence because of potential for subclinical infected animals to be removed by predators and not tested.

South Dakota↗
USGS2018

Incorporating productivity as a measure of fitness into models of breeding area quality of Arctic peregrine falcons

Using empirical location data from individuals to model habitat quality and species distributions is valuable towards understanding habitat use of wildlife, especially for conservation and management planning. Incorporating measures of reproductive success or survival into these models helps address the role of vital rates (a surrogate of fitness) in affecting a species’ distribution. We used 24-year datasets of Arctic peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus tundrius ) nest-site locations and productivity from the Colville River Special Area, Alaska, USA to model suitability of breeding habitat and the relative quality of used and potential nest sites. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models and covariates describing nest-site productivity, area of surrounding prey habitat, geology, topography, and land-cover type to model and predict intensity of Arctic peregrine falcon nest-site use along the Colville River, and developed a predictive map of intensity of nest-site use. Regions of higher predicted intensity of use were characterized by steeper slopes, greater area of prey habitat, and higher average productivity, which are likely attributed to minimizing predation risk, gaining advantages for hunting, having sufficient prey resources, site quality, and overall fitness. Including productivity in intensity of nest-site use models improved the models, supporting our supposition that adding a fitness parameter enhanced the predictive capability of the species distribution model. Areas predicted to have higher intensity of use by our model can be used to focus efforts of continued protection of areas with frequently occupied and productive nest sites, and conversely, identify areas where protection of nest sites is likely to have few conservation benefits.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Potential effects of GPS transmitters on greater sage-grouse survival in a post-fire landscape

Rigorous monitoring and evaluation of wildlife population performance because of management or disturbance often relies upon the handling and marking of animals. Such studies must assume that marking animals does not affect their behavior or demography. We examined survival of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus post wildfire in southeastern Oregon, USA. We observed extremely high mortality rates early in the study and questioned if our global positioning systems (GPS) transmitters were negatively affecting survival of adult greater sage-grouse. Thus, in situ we captured and randomly assigned additional grouse to either a GPS or VHF transmitter and examine patterns of mortality and estimated survival to evaluate if there were in fact transmitter effects on this important vital rate. Our results indicated that regardless of instrument type large wildfire had negative effects on monthly survival the first year after the fire. However, point estimates indicated that greater sage-grouse fitted with GPS transmitters had approximately 5% lower annual survival than VHF tagged birds, but although there was relatively large overlap in confidence limits, likely caused by small sample sizes. Further research is needed to disentangle potential confounding effects of GPS transmitters on survival impacts of grouse in association with large disturbance.

Oregon↗
USGS2019

Estimating sightability of greater sage-grouse at leks using an aerial infrared system and N-mixture models

Counts of grouse present at leks (breeding grounds) during spring are widely used to monitor population numbers and assess trends. However, only a proportion of birds available to count are detected resulting in a biased population index. We designed a study using an aerial integrated infrared imaging system (AIRIS) and experimental pseudo-leks to quantify sightability (proportion of birds detected) of conventional ground-based visual (GBV) surveys for greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus . Specifically, we calibrated AIRIS at pseudo-leks composed of known numbers of captively-raised birds, primarily ring-necked pheasant Phasianus colchicus . We then carried out AIRIS and GBV surveys, simultaneously, on nearby sage-grouse leks, allowing us to model AIRIS and GBV sightability. AIRIS detected ∼93% of birds on pseudo-leks while GBV detected ∼86% of sage-grouse on leks. Thus, the ground count observation error was –14% from the ‘true' number of male sage-grouse attending the leks. We also found sagebrush cover decreased sightability for GBV counts but did not influence sightability by AIRIS. Because standard GBV protocols typically make repeated counts of sage-grouse in a single morning, we also modeled repeated GBV counts using N -mixture models and found an 88% sightability, which was nearly the same as GBV sightability from the AIRIS analysis. This suggests that the use of repeated morning counts can potentially account for imperfect detection in the standard GBV surveys currently implemented. We also provide generalized correction values that could be employed by resource managers using either GBV or AIRIS to better estimate ‘true’ numbers of sage-grouse attending leks within similar environments to this study. The findings and interpretation presented can help guide effective monitoring protocols that account for observation error and improve accuracy of data used for population trend and abundance estimation.

California, Idaho, Nevada↗
USGS2020

Consequences of ignoring group association in spatial capture-recapture analysis

Many models in population ecology, including spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models, assume that individuals are distributed and detected independently of one another. In reality, this is rarely the case – both antagonistic and gregarious relationships lead to non-independent spatial configurations, with territorial exclusion at one end of the spectrum and group-living at the other. Previous simulation studies suggest that grouping has limited impact on the outcome of SCR analyses. However, group associations entail not only spatial clustering of activity centers but also coordinated space use by group members, potentially impacting both ecological and observation processes underlying SCR analysis. We simulated SCR scenarios with different strengths of aggregation (clustering of individuals into groups with shared activity centers) and cohesion (synchronization of detection patterns of members of a group). We then fit SCR models to the simulated data sets and evaluated the effect of aggregation and cohesion on parameter estimates. Low to moderate aggregation and cohesion did not impact the bias and precision of estimates of density and the scale parameter of the detection function. However, non-independence between individuals led to high levels of overdispersion. Overdispersion strongly decreased the coverage of confidence intervals around parameter estimates, thereby increasing the probability of erroneous predictions. Our results indicate that SCR models are robust to moderate levels of aggregation and cohesion. Nonetheless, spatial dependence between individuals can lead to false inference. We recommend that practitioners 1) test for the presence of overdispersion in SCR data caused by aggregation and cohesion, and, if necessary, 2) correct their variance estimates using the overdispersion factor ĉ . Approaches for doing both are described in this paper. We also urge the development of SCR models that incorporate spatial associations between individuals not only to account for overdispersion but also to obtain quantitative information about social aspects of study populations.

Wildlife Biology↗
USGS2020

The influence of hunting pressure and ecological factors on fecal glucocorticoid metabolites in wild elk

Climate change and human population growth have increased anthropogenic threats to biodiversity and habitat fragmentation. Ecologists and conservationists need tools to assess the effect of these ecological and environmental perturbations on organismal fitness. One possibility is glucocorticoids (e.g., cortisol and corticosterone) which integrate various factors such as anthropogenic disturbances, predation, food, or environmental stressors. Here we tested the hypothesis that fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations (GCMs) in wild female elk ( Cervus canadensis ) increased as the hunting season progressed. We also examined the influence of year, food availability, and elk group size on fecal GCMs. We found that as the hunting season progressed, fecal GCMs tended to decrease. We also found that as the number of cows in a group increased, GCMs decreased, and found a strong effect of year on fecal GCMs, with samples collected in 2016 having lower fecal GCMs than those collected in 2015, 2017, and 2018. However, yearly variation was not driven by availability of hard mast forage. The lack of positive association between hunting pressure and fecal GCMs and identifying what is driving yearly variation in fecal GCMs warrants further study. We highlight the negative influence of group size, possibly due to vigilance, on fecal GCMs and the importance of examining ecologically relevant covariates to accurately identify main treatment effects.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2020

Methods for estimating vital rates of greater sage-grouse broods: A review

Biologists use a variety of methods to estimate productivity and resource selection of birds. The effectiveness and suitability of each method depends on the study's objectives, but is also influenced by many important traits, including detection probability, disturbance of focal birds and sampling frequency. We reviewed 504 greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus papers published from 1990 to 2019 to document the most common brood survey methods used by investigators and summarized if and how they used brood survey data to estimate brood survival and detection probability. Of the 504 papers, 16.1% (n = 81) had useful information relevant to the review. The most common methods included daytime visual surveys (46.9%; n = 38), daytime flush surveys (33.3%; n = 27), nocturnal spotlight surveys (19.8%; n = 16), radio-tagged chicks (16.0%; n = 13), wing surveys (9.9%; n = 8), brood routes (4.9%; n = 4) and pointing dogs (4.9%; n = 4). Fifty-nine of the 81 papers used >1 method, only 2 of the 81 papers measured or reported detection probability, and none reported the level of disturbance caused by the method. Studies varied widely regarding the age of the brood when brood fate was confirmed (x̄ = 44.4 days post-hatch, range 14–84 days). The frequency of brood sampling visits also varied greatly among studies (range = 1.19–3.85 surveys/brood/week) and this variation complicates comparison in fecundity and survival estimates across studies. Furthermore, 35 papers used >1 maternal behavior as purported indicators of brood fate, but none of them documented how accurate their indicators were. Future studies could reduce variance in estimates of sage-grouse fecundity and brood survival by employing empirical methods to estimate detection probability, standardizing brood sampling methods and conducting trials to document the effects of hen or brood capture, handling and flushing on brood survival estimates. Moreover, the accuracy of commonly used indicators of brood fate, including maternal behaviors, flocking behavior and distance moved after flush needs verification.

Wildlife Biology↗
USGS2021

Anthropogenic edge effects in habitat selection by sun bears in a protected area

Wildlife populations in southeast Asia are increasingly experiencing a broad array of anthropogenic threats, and mammalian carnivores are particularly vulnerable. Populations of the Malayan sun bear Helarctos malayanus are estimated to have declined by 30% over the last 30 years from forest conversion to industrial plantations and mortality associated with human–bear conflicts and illegal wildlife trade. However, the effects of industrial plantations on habitat selection and activity patterns of mammals that live at the protected area-plantation interface, including sun bears, are not well known. We investigated habitat selection and activity patterns of sun bears in Tabin Wildlife Reserve in Sabah, Malaysia. We deployed 83 remote camera sites to record sun bear detections during two sampling periods (2012–2013 and 2017). We used generalized linear models to examine relationships between sun bear presence and site covariates representing physical, environmental and anthropogenic elements of the landscape. Relative probability of sun bear presence was positively associated with distance to roads and elevation. Because most roads were on the reserve boundary and often associated with oil palm plantations, proximity to roads likely served as a surrogate measure of human accessibility and activity in peripheral areas of the reserve. Supporting that interpretation, sun bears close to the reserve boundary were primarily active at night, whereas daytime activity was more common for bears in the interior. Our findings indicate that sun bears alter behaviour and habitat selection likely in response to anthropogenic activities at the edges of Tabin Wildlife Reserve (112 200 ha). Because the ratio of edge to interior increases steeply with declining habitat area, smaller protected areas bordered by plantations are predicted to have greater impacts on sun bear behaviour and, potentially, population persistence. Effective conservation actions may benefit from management to improve the security of edge habitats for sun bears and other vulnerable species.

Tabin Wildlife Reserve↗
USGS2021

Migration phenology and patterns of American woodcock in central North America derived using satellite telemetry

American woodcock Scolopax minor (hereafter woodcock) migration ecology is poorly understood, but has implications for population ecology and management, especially related to harvest. To describe woodcock migration patterns and phenology, we captured and equipped 73 woodcock with satellite tracking devices in the Central Management Region (analogous to the Mississippi Flyway) of North America and documented migration paths of 60 individual woodcock and 87 autumn or spring woodcock migrations during 2014–2016. Woodcock migration at the scale of the Central Management Region was more synchronous in spring than in autumn, but unlike most other migratory birds, average duration of autumn migration (31 days) was shorter than duration of spring migration (53 days). This difference in migration duration resulted from woodcock making more close-together migratory stopovers during spring migration, not because woodcock had individual stopovers of longer duration. During autumn migration, the number of days, the number of stopovers, migration end date and net migration displacement were negatively related to initiation date and rate of migration, and the number of stopovers and the net migration displacement were negatively related with migration end date. Spring migration duration, end date, the number of stopovers and net migration displacement were negatively related to migration rate and initiation date was positively related to migration rate, suggesting that woodcock that initiated spring migration later had faster migration rates. Juvenile female woodcock began spring migration later than adult female woodcock. Our results provide a basis for comparing current harvest seasons with presence of migrating woodcock during autumn and provide insight into differential harvest of migratory versus local woodcock on breeding areas.

central North America↗
USGS2021

Habitat diversity influences puma (Puma concolor) diet in the Chihuahuan Desert

Habitat heterogeneity and corresponding diversity in potential prey species should increase the diet breadth of generalist predators. Many previous studies describing puma Puma concolor diets in the arid regions of the southwestern United States were focused within largely xeric locations, overlooking the influence of heterogeneity created by riparian forests. Such habitat heterogeneity and corresponding prey diversity could influence prey availability and puma diet composition. We examined seasonal prey composition of pumas occupying areas with different habitat conditions representing riparian areas adjacent to the Rio Grande and xeric Chihuahuan Desert uplands in southern New Mexico. We collected prey composition data from 686 kill sites made by 17 (9 males and 8 females) GPS-collared pumas from 2014 to 2018. Diet composition included 32 different avian, aquatic, small mammal, and ungulate prey species. Prey composition varied, with more ungulate prey consumed by pumas inhabiting the upland desert areas and more aquatic prey consumed in the riparian bosque. Prey composition differed between seasons, with ungulate prey decreasing and aquatic prey increasing during the hot–dry season. Prey composition also varied between puma sex and habitat with females in the desert uplands consuming more small mammals than either males or females in riparian areas. The diverse diets of the pumas inhabiting the heterogeneous landscapes in southern New Mexico provide additional evidence that pumas have broad diets that are strongly influenced by the habitat and prey community that their home range encompasses.

New Mexico↗
USGS2014

Density and abundance of Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata in winter in the Lower Mississippi Flyway, USA

Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata is one of the least studied North American game birds, and information on snipe populations and abundance is mostly unknown. We conducted roadside surveys stratified at the township level in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) in Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, as well as the Red River Region, and the Gulf Coastal Plain of Louisiana during winters of 2009 and 2010. We identified observer, vegetation cover, and water cover as important covariates in estimating snipe densities. We detected 2915 snipe along 814 line transects (1450 km) for 2009 and 2010 combined. We estimated snipe densities of 8.05 individuals km -2 (95% CI: 4.57-14.17) in 2009, and 2.13 individuals km -2 (95% CI: 1.47-3.08) in 2010. We used the resulting snipe density estimates within the study area to calculate abundance estimates of 1 026 431 (95% CI: 582 707-1 806 774) in 2009, and 271 590 (95% CI: 187 435-392 722) in 2010 for the LMAV. Our data indicate that a road transect survey method is effective for estimating wintering snipe density and abundance in the lower Mississippi Flyway.

Wildlife Biology↗
USGS1998

Mortality and survival of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus fawns on a north Atlantic coastal island

Mortality and survival of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus fawns (N = 29) were studied from birth to one year of age during 1991–95 on Mount Desert Island (MDI), Maine, where deer hunting is prohibited, coyotes Canis latrans have become recently established, and protected U.S. National Park lands are interspersed with private property. The rate of predator-caused mortality was 0.52, with coyote predation (N = 8) accounting for at least 47% of mortalities from all causes (N = 17). Mortality rate from drowning was 0.24 (N = 3), and from vehicles 0.14 (N = 3). For fawns radio-collared as neonates, 10 of 14 mortalities occurred during the first two months of life. Annual rate of fawn survival was 0.26. Survival rate from six months to one year was 0.65 and four mortalities (two predation, two drowning) were observed during this interval. A subgroup of fawns (N = 11) captured near a residential area and along the periphery of a coyote territory had a higher rate of survival to one year of age (S = 0.67) than did fawns from all other areas (N = 18, S = 0.00). Recruitment to one year of age was lower than that observed in other deer populations in the northeastern United States. Low recruitment associated with coyote predation and mortality sources associated with humans appears to be limiting white-tailed deer populations in some segments of this insular landscape.

Maine↗
USGS1998

Lead poisoning and trace elements in common eiders Somateria mollissima from Finland

We collected carcasses of 52 common eider Somateria mollissima adults and ducklings and blood samples from 11 nesting eider hens in the Gulf of Finland near Helsinki in 1994, 1995 and 1996. Samples of liver tissue were analysed for arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, magnesium, manganese, mercury, molybdenum, selenium and zinc. Blood was analysed for lead, mercury and selenium. Most of the 21 adults examined at necropsy were emaciated with empty gizzards, and no ingested shotgun pellets or other metal were found in any of the birds. Three adult females had a combination of lesions and tissue lead residues characteristic of lead poisoning. Two of these birds had acid-fast intranuclear inclusion bodies in renal epithelial cells and high concentrations of lead (73.4 and 73.3 ppm; all liver residues reported on dry weight basis) in their livers. The third was emaciated with a liver lead concentration of 47.9 ppm. An adult male had a liver lead concentration of 81.7 ppm, which is consistent with severe clinical poisoning. Two other adults, one male and one female, had liver lead concentrations of 14.2 and 8.03 ppm, respectively. Lead concentrations in the blood of hens ranged from 0.11 to 0.63 ppm wet weight. Selenium residues of A?60 ppm were found in the livers of five adult males. Selenium concentrations in the blood of hens ranged from 1.18 to 3.39 ppm wet weight. Arsenic concentrations of 27.5-38.5 ppm were detected in the livers of four adult females. Detectable concentrations of selenium, mercury and molybdenum were found more frequently in the livers of adult males arriving on the breeding grounds than in incubating females, while the reverse was true for arsenic, lead and chromium. Mean concentrations of selenium, copper and molybdenum were higher in the livers of arriving males than in the livers of incubating hens, but hens had greater concentrations of iron and magnesium. Concentrations of trace elements were lower in the livers of ducklings than in the livers of adults.

Wildlife Biology↗
USGS1999

Lead effects on body composition and organ size of wintering canvasbacks Aythya valisineria in Louisiana

We tested whether lead exposure, as evidenced by liver lead concentration, affected body composition and organ sizes of canvasback ducks Aythya valisineria in Louisiana during winter 1987-88. After adjusting for body size, sex, age, and site and month of collection, we found decreases in ingesta-free body mass; breast, leg, and body protein; body fat; intestine length; and liver and gizzard masses associated with increased liver lead concentrations. There were no apparent associations between liver lead concentrations and testes and body ash masses, or caecal length. We used the concentration of 26.7 ppm of liver lead on a dry matter (dm) basis as indicative of lead toxicosis. We predicted that a canvasback with 26.7 ppm dm liver lead would weigh 209 g less and have 105 g less fat than an unexposed individual. Whereas many lead exposed canvasbacks may survive through winter, their subsequent survival, ability to reproduce and perform other annual cycle events may be compromised. We recommend management to make lead unavailable to waterfowl at major concentration areas and periodic monitoring of lead contamination in waterfowl populations.

Louisiana↗
USGS2004

Canada lynx Lynx canadensis habitat and forest succession in northern Maine, USA

The contiguous United States population of Canada lynx Lynx canadensis was listed as threatened in 2000. The long-term viability of lynx populations at the southern edge of their geographic range has been hypothesized to be dependent on old growth forests; however, lynx are a specialist predator on snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, a species associated with early-successional forests. To quantify the effects of succession and forest management on landscape-scale (100 km 2 ) patterns of habitat occupancy by lynx, we compared landscape attributes in northern Maine, USA, where lynx had been detected on snow track surveys to landscape attributes where surveys had been conducted, but lynx tracks had not been detected. Models were constructed a priori and compared using logistic regression and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), which quantitatively balances data fit and parsimony. In the models with the lowest (i.e. best) AIC, lynx were more likely to occur in landscapes with much regenerating forest, and less likely to occur in landscapes with much recent clearcut, partial harvest and forested wetland. Lynx were not associated positively or negatively with mature coniferous forest. A probabilistic map of the model indicated a patchy distribution of lynx habitat in northern Maine. According to an additional survey of the study area for lynx tracks during the winter of 2003, the model correctly classified 63.5% of the lynx occurrences and absences. Lynx were more closely associated with young forests than mature forests; however, old-growth forests were functionally absent from the landscape. Lynx habitat could be reduced in northern Maine, given recent trends in forest management practices. Harvest strategies have shifted from clearcutting to partial harvesting. If this trend continues, future landscapes will shift away from extensive regenerating forests and toward landscapes dominated by pole-sized and larger stands. Because Maine presently supports the only verified populations of this federally threatened species in the eastern United States, changes in forest management practices could affect recovery efforts throughout that region.

Maine↗
USGS2010

Power to detect trends in Missouri River fish populations within the Habitat Assessment Monitoring Program

As with all large rivers in the United States, the Missouri River has been altered, with approximately one-third of the mainstem length impounded and one-third channelized. These physical alterations to the environment have affected the fish populations, but studies examining the effects of alterations have been localized and for short periods of time, thereby preventing generalization. In response to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Opinion, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) initiated monitoring of habitat improvements of the Missouri River in 2005. The goal of the Habitat Assessment Monitoring Program (HAMP) is to provide information on the response of target fish species to the USACE habitat creation on the Lower Missouri River. To determine the statistical power of the HAMP and in cooperation with USACE, a power analysis was conducted using a normal linear mixed model with variance component estimates based on the first complete year of data. At a level of 20/16 (20 bends with 16 subsamples in each bend), at least one species/month/gear model has the power to determine differences between treated and untreated bends. The trammel net in September had the most species models with adequate power at the 20/16 level and overall, the trammel net had the most species/month models with adequate power at the 20/16 level. However, using only one gear or gear/month combination would eliminate other species of interest, such as three chub species (Macrhybopsis meeki, Macrhybopsis aestivalis, and Macrhybopsis gelida), sand shiners (Notropis stramineus), pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), and juvenile sauger (Sander canadensis). Since gear types are selective in their species efficiency, the strength of the HAMP approach is using multiple gears that have statistical power to differentiate habitat treatment differences in different fish species within the Missouri River. As is often the case with sampling rare species like the pallid sturgeon, the data used to conduct the analyses exhibit some departures from the parametric model assumptions. However, preliminary simulations indicate that the results of this study are appropriate for application to the HAMP study design.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

The power to detect trends in Missouri River fish populations within the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program

As with all large rivers in the United States, the Missouri River has been altered, with approximately 32.5 percent of the main stem length impounded and 32.5 percent channelized. These physical alterations to the environment have had effects on the fisheries, but studies examining the effects of alterations have been localized and for short periods of time. In response to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biological opinion, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers initiated monitoring of the fish community of the Missouri River in 2003. The goal of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program is to provide information to detect changes in populations and habitat preferences with time for pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) and native target species in the Missouri River Basin. To determine statistical power of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program, a power analysis was conducted using a normal linear mixed model with variance component estimates based on the first 3 years of data (2003 to 2005). In cases where 3 years of data were unavailable, estimates were obtained using those data. It was determined that at least 20 years of data, sampling 12 bends with 8 subsamples per bend, would be required to detect a 5 percent annual decline in most of the target fish populations. Power varied between Zones. Zone 1 (upstream from Lake Sakakawea) did not have any species/gear type combinations with adequate power, whereas Zone 3 (downstream from Gavins Point Dam) had 19 species/gear type combinations with adequate power. With a slight increase in the sampling effort to 12 subsamples per bend, the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program has adequate power to detect declines in shovelnose sturgeon (S. platorynchus) throughout the entire Missouri River because of large catch rates. The lowest level of non-occurrence (in other words, zero catches) at the bend level for pallid sturgeon was 0.58 using otter trawls in Zone 1. Consequently, the power of the pallid sturgeon models was not as high as other species at the current level of sampling, but an increase in the sampling effort to 16 subsamples for each of 24 bends for 20 years would generate adequate power for the pallid sturgeon in all Zones. Since gear types are selective in their species efficiency, the strength of the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program approach is using multiple gears that have statistical power to detect population trends at the same time in different fish species within the Missouri River. As often is the case with monitoring studies involving endangered species, the data used to conduct the analyses exhibit some departures from the parametric model assumptions; however, preliminary simulations indicate that the results of this study are appropriate.

Open-File Report↗