SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Urban Climate”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Perception, experience, and indigenous knowledge of climate change and variability: the case of Accra, a sub-Saharan African city

Several recent international assessments have concluded that climate change has the potential to reverse the modest economic gains achieved in many developing countries over the past decade. The phenomenon of climate change threatens to worsen poverty or burden populations with additional hardships, especially in poor societies with weak infrastructure and economic well-being. The importance of the perceptions, experiences, and knowledge of indigenous peoples has gained prominence in discussions of climate change and adaptation in developing countries and among international development organizations. Efforts to evaluate the role of indigenous knowledge in adaptation planning, however, have largely focused on rural people and their agricultural livelihoods. This paper presents the results of a study that examines perceptions, experiences, and indigenous knowledge relating to climate change and variability in three communities of metropolitan Accra, which is the capital of Ghana. The study design is based on a three-part conceptual framework and interview process involving risk mapping, mental models, and individual stressor cognition. Most of the residents interviewed in the three communities of urban Accra attributed climate change to the combination of deforestation and the burning of firewood and rubbish. None of the residents associated climate change with fossil fuel emissions from developed countries. Numerous potential adaptation strategies were suggested by the residents, many of which have been used effectively during past drought and flood events. Results suggest that ethnic residential clustering as well as strong community bonds in metropolitan Accra have allowed various groups and long-settled communities to engage in the sharing and transmission of knowledge of weather patterns and trends. Understanding and building upon indigenous knowledge may enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in Accra and urban regions of other developing nations.

Accra↗

USGS1989

Regression models for estimating urban storm-runoff quality and quantity in the United States

Urban planners and managers need information about the local quantity of precipitation and the quality and quantity of storm runoff if they are to plan adequately for the effects of storm runoff from urban areas. As result of this need, linear regression models were developed for the estimation of storm-runoff loads and volumes from physical, land-use, and climatic characteristics of urban watersheds throughout the United States. Three statistically different regions were delineated, based on mean annual rainfall, to improve linear regression models. One use of these models is to estimate storm-runoff loads and volumes are gaged and ungaged urban watersheds. The most significant explanatory variables in all linear regression models were total storm rainfall and total contributing drainage area. Impervious area, land-use, and mean annual climatic characteristics were also significant explanatory variables in some linear regression models. Models for dissolved solids, total nitrogen, and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen were the most accurate models for most areas, whereas models for suspended solids were the least accurate. The most accurate models were those for the more arid western United States, and the least accurate were those for areas that had large quantities of mean annual rainfall.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2019

Biogeographic freshwater fish pattern legacy revealed despite rapid socio-economic changes in China

Understanding drivers of freshwater fish assemblages is critically important for biodiversity conservation strategies, especially in rapidly developing countries, which often have environmental protections lagging behind economic development. The influences of natural and human factors in structuring fish assemblages and their relative contributions are likely to change given the increasing magnitude of human activities. To discriminate natural and human drivers of fish diversity and assemblage patterns in developing countries with rapid socio-economic development, a dataset of 908 freshwater fish species and 13 metrics including three categories of both natural (i.e., biogeographic) and human drivers (i.e., economic growth, inland fisheries) in China were analysed with machine learning algorithms (i.e., self-organizing map, random forest). Here, we found that biogeographic drivers explained 21.8% of the observed fish assemblage patterns in China and remained stronger predictors when compared to human drivers (i.e., 15.6%, respectively). Freshwater fish species richness was positively correlated to rainfall, air temperature, surface water area and inland fisheries production but negatively correlated with urbanization. In addition, the strong structuring effects of climatic variables on Chinese fish richness patterns suggested that the fish assemblages could be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Our results showed that natural biogeographic factors still dominate in driving freshwater fish assemblage patterns despite increased human disturbances on aquatic ecosystems in a rapidly developing country. These findings consequently suggested that we should consider both natural (e.g., climate) and human (e.g., urbanization, inland fisheries) factors when establishing aquatic conservation strategies and priorities for developing countries that are experiencing rapid socio-economic changes.

Fish and Fisheries↗

USGS2010

Relation of urbanization to stream habitat and geomorphic characteristics in nine metropolitan areas of the United States

The relation of urbanization to stream habitat and geomorphic characteristics was examined collectively and individually for nine metropolitan areas of the United States?Portland, Oregon; Salt Lake City, Utah; Denver, Colorado; Dallas?Forth Worth, Texas; Milwaukee?Green Bay, Wisconsin; Birmingham, Alabama; Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Boston, Massachusetts. The study was part of a larger study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1999 to 2004 to examine the effects of urbanization on the physical, chemical, and biological components of stream ecosystems. The objectives of the current study were to determine how stream habitat and geomorphic characteristics relate to different aspects of urbanization across a variety of diverse environmental settings and spatial scales. A space-for-time rural-to-urban land-cover gradient approach was used. Reach-scale habitat data and geomorphic characteristic data were collected once during low flow and included indicators of potential habitat degradation such as measures of channel geometry and hydraulics, streambed substrate, low-flow reach volume (an estimate of base-flow conditions), habitat complexity, and riparian/bank conditions. Hydrologic metrics included in the analyses were those expected to be altered by increases in impervious surfaces, such as high-flow frequency and duration, flashiness, and low-flow duration. Other natural and human features, such as reach-scale channel engineering, geologic setting, and slope, were quantified to identify their possible confounding influences on habitat relations with watershed-scale urbanization indicators. Habitat and geomorphic characteristics were compared to several watershed-scale indicators of urbanization, natural landscape characteristics, and hydrologic metrics by use of correlation analyses and stepwise linear regression. Habitat and geomorphic characteristics were related to percentages of impervious surfaces only in some metropolitan areas and environmental settings. The relations between watershed-scale indicators of urbanization and stream habitat depended on physiography and climate, hydrology, pre-urban channel alterations, reach-scale slope and presence of bedrock, and amount of bank stabilization and grade control. Channels increased in size with increasing percentages of impervious surfaces in southeastern and midwestern metropolitan areas regardless of whether the pre-existing land use was forest or agriculture. The amount of enlargement depended on annual precipitation and frequency of high-flow events. The lack of a relation between channel enlargement and increasing impervious surfaces in other metropolitan areas was thought to be confounded by pre-urbanization hydrologic and channel alterations. Direct relations of channel shape and streambed substrate to urbanization were variable or lacking, probably because the type, amount, and source of sediment are dependent on the phase of urbanization. Reach-scale slope also was important for determining variations in streambed substrate and habitat complexity (percentage of riffles and runs). Urbanization-associated changes in reach-scale riparian vegetation varied geographically, partially depending on pre-existing riparian vegetation characteristics. Bank erosion increased in Milwaukee?Green Bay and Boston urban streams, and bank erosion also increased with an increase in a streamflow flashiness index. However, potential relations likely were confounded by the frequent use of channel stabilization and bank protection in urban settings. Low-flow reach volume did not decrease with increasing urbanization, but instead was related to natural landscape characteristics and possibly other unmeasured factors. The presence of intermittent bedrock in some sampled reaches likely limited some geomorphic responses to urbanization, such as channel bed erosion. Results from this study emphasize the importance of including a wide range of landscape variables at m

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Historical insights, current challenges: Tracking marine biodiversity in an urban harbor ecosystem in the face of climate change

The Boston Harbor Islands is the only coastal drumlin archipelago in the USA, featuring a distinctive and uncommon geological intertidal habitat known as mixed coarse substrate, which supports a range of coastal species and ecological processes. Recently designated as one of America’s 11 most endangered historic places due to climate change impacts, coastal adaptation and restoration efforts are crucial to their preservation. Such efforts can benefit from historic and current knowledge of endemic and emergent biodiversity. To investigate broad trends in coastal biodiversity, we compiled an inventory of marine coastal macroalgae, macroinvertebrates, fish, mammals, and shorebirds observed in the harbor since 1861. Records span 159 years, consisting of 451 unique taxa from 19 phyla. Analysis of average taxonomic distinctness (AvTD) revealed increases in diversity towards the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, likely associated with improved water quality (dissolved oxygen; AvTD > 85, p = 0.01) due to harbor restoration in the 1980s. Macroinvertebrates comprised 50% of the records, making this the most diverse taxonomic group in the time series. A significant increase of non-indigenous species, primarily macroinvertebrates and macroalgae, was observed over the last 20 years near human infrastructure and across multiple islands, a consequence of global change and characteristic of most urban harbors. The mixed coarse intertidal habitat, which makes up > 70% of Boston Harbor’s inner islands and supports high macroinvertebrate and macroalgal diversity (47% of species records), is not routinely monitored; our findings serve as a foundational resource for climate adaptation projects and decision-making.

Massachusetts↗

USGS1990

Techniques for estimation of storm-runoff loads, volumes, and selected constituent concentrations in urban watersheds in the United States

Urban planners and managers need information on the quantity of precipitation and the quality and quantity of run off in their cities and towns if they are to adequately plan for the effects of storm runoff from urban areas. As a result of this need, four sets of linear regression models were developed for estimating storm-runoff constituent loads, storm-runoff volumes, storm-runoff mean concentrations of constituents, and mean seasonal or mean annual constituent loads from physical, land-use, and climatic characteristics of urban watersheds in the United States. Thirty-four regression models of storm-runoff constituent loads and storm-runoff volumes were developed, and 31 models of storm-runoff mean concentrations were developed . Ten models of mean seasonal or mean annual constituent loads were developed by analyzing long-term storm-rainfall records using at-site linear regression models. Three statistically different regions, delineated on the basis of mean annual rainfall, were used to improve linear regression models where adequate data were available . Multiple regression analyses, including ordinary least squares and generalized least squares, were used to determine the optimum linear regression models . These models can be used to estimate storm-runoff constituent loads, storm-runoff volumes, storm-runoff mean concentrations of constituents, and mean seasonal or mean annual constituent loads at gaged and ungaged urban watersheds. The most significant explanatory variables in all linear regression models were total storm rainfall and total contributing drainage area. Impervious area, land-use, and mean annual climatic characteristics also were significant in some models. Models for estimating loads of dissolved solids, total nitrogen, and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen generally were the most accurate, whereas models for suspended solids were the least accurate. The most accurate models were those for application in the more arid Western States, and the least accurate models were those for areas that had large mean annual rainfall.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2009

The increasing wildfire and post-fire debris-flow threat in western USA, and implications for consequences of climate change

In southern California and the intermountain west of the USA, debris flows generated from recently-burned basins pose significant hazards. Increases in the frequency and size of wildfires throughout the western USA can be attributed to increases in the number of fire ignitions, fire suppression practices, and climatic influences. Increased urbanization throughout the western USA, combined with the increased wildfire magnitude and frequency, carries with it the increased threat of subsequent debris-flow occurrence. Differences between rainfall thresholds and empirical debris-flow susceptibility models for southern California and the intermountain west indicate a strong influence of climatic and geologic settings on post-fire debris-flow potential. The linkages between wildfires, debris-flow occurrence, and global warming suggests that the experiences in the western United States are highly likely to be duplicated in many other parts of the world, and necessitate hazard assessment tools that are specific to local climates and physiographies.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Characterizing urban heat islands across 50 major cities in the United States

Urban development and associated land-cover and land-use change alters the environment. The continued increase of developed land changes the Earth’s ecosystems and affects the resources provided to society. During the last 40 years, urban population in the United States has increased by more than 6.3 percent, and more than 80 percent of the U.S. population resides in urban areas. One of the changes associated with urbanization is the change of landscape features to structures such as buildings, roads, and other infrastructure that absorb and re-emit the heat of the sun more than natural landscapes such as forests and water bodies. This land-cover transition can result in an urban surface temperature that is higher than in a non-urban area, which is defined as a surface urban heat island (SUHI). A SUHI has a profound effect on the lives of urban residents and can exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The change of urban landscapes and climate conditions can affect the SUHI intensity. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a dataset of SUHI intensity and change from 1985 to 2020 over 50 cities in the United States using Landsat surface temperature (ST) and land - cover data. The data reveal SUHI spatial distributions and temporal trends in these cities. The 50-city mean SUHI intensity reaches 2.88 degrees Celsius (°C) (5.19 degrees Fahrenheit [°F]) and an average trend of 0.32 °C per decade (0.58 °F per decade). The data also provide spatial distributions of hotspots where annual mean ST is higher than in the surrounding areas that have the same urban land-cover type and high ST that repeated more than 50 percent of the time during 1985–2020 for 50 cities.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2020

Examining the mechanisms of species responses to climate change: Are there biological thresholds?

Climate-change-driven shifts in distribution and abundance have been documented in many species. However, in order to better predict species responses, managers are seeking to understand the mechanisms that are driving these changes, including any thresholds that might soon be crossed. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. Moreover, this project documented biological thresholds related to climate variability and change for critical species in the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. Specifically, our objectives were to identify the primary drivers (climate change vs. urban growth) of species distribution changes in the Northeast; examine the nature of species landscape capability change over time to identify potential thresholds; determine how changing temperatures and snowpack characteristics will drive species interactions; analyze the sensitivity of tree and bird responses to the magnitude, variability, periodicity, and seasonality of temperature and precipitation under climate change in the eastern U.S.; and identify how discrete climate triggers such as extreme events will correlate with known biological thresholds. Major outcomes included 1) refining the understanding of the mechanisms that drive projected changes in the distribution of vulnerable populations; and 2) improving how these results are conveyed to stakeholders by identifying understandable responses in the form of thresholds.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗

USGS1996

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

North Carolina↗

USGS2019

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: Adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory

Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application to conservation of risk management theory emphasizes diversification of portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate‐driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio tradeoffs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea‐level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14‐180%) and wetland loss (1‐7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate.

South Carolina↗

USGS2021

Connectivity between lentic and lotic freshwater habitats identified as a conservation priority for coho salmon

Juvenile Pacific salmon exhibit diverse habitat use and migration strategies to navigate high environmental variability and predation risk during freshwater residency. Increasingly, urbanization and climate-driven hydrological alterations are affecting the availability and quality of aquatic habitats in salmon catchments. Thus, conservation of freshwater habitat integrity has emerged as an important challenge in supporting salmon life-history diversity as a buffer against continuing ecosystem changes. To inform catchment management for salmon, information on the distribution and movement dynamics of juvenile fish throughout the annual seasonal cycle is needed. A number of studies have assessed the ecology of juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) during summer and autumn seasons; catchment use by this species throughout the annual cycle is less well characterized, particularly in high-latitude systems. Here, n = 3,792 tagged juvenile coho salmon were tracked throughout two complete annual cycles to assess basin-wide distribution and movement behaviour of this species in a subarctic, ice-bearing catchment. Juvenile coho salmon in the Big Lake basin, Alaska, exhibited multiple habitat use and movement strategies across seasons; however, summer rearing in lotic mainstem environments followed by migration to lentic overwinter habitats was identified as a prominent behaviour, with two-thirds of tracked fish migrating en masse to concentrate in a small subset of upper catchment lakes for the winter. In contrast, the most significant tributary overwintering site (8% of tracked fish) occurred below a culvert and dam, blocking juvenile fish passage to a headwater lake, indicating that these fish may have been restricted from reaching preferred lentic overwinter habitats. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining aquatic connectivity to lentic habitats as a conservation priority for coho salmon during freshwater residency.

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosys↗

USGS2026

Poor population recovery of Lake Washington Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Pacific Northwestern USA may be associated with disease caused by Ceratonova shasta in an urban-influenced watershed

Understanding the effects of anthropogenic changes on fish disease is vital for supporting mitigative actions for fisheries population recovery. The Lake Washington watershed in the Pacific Northwestern United States is influenced by high urban development and climate change, compromising the sustainability of anadromous salmon. We investigated Ceratonova shasta , a myxozoan parasite, in Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to determine the impacts of C. shasta -induced enteronecrosis during salmon freshwater migrations within this watershed. All sampled adult Chinook Salmon returning to an enhancement hatchery to spawn were infected with genotype I C. shasta with a high prevalence of severe enteritis and enteronecrosis. Parasite loads and associated pathology were more severe in adult fish succumbing to prespawn mortality than in fish that spawned. Natural prespawn mortality of Chinook Salmon in the Cedar River was also associated with high C. shasta loads. Sentinel exposure studies with Chinook Salmon juveniles in the spring and fall demonstrated high levels of C. shasta genotype II actinospores in the Lake Washington Ship Canal, a human engineered canal that salmon must traverse in their freshwater migrations from the Puget Sound. The sentinel juvenile Chinook Salmon succumbed to clinical disease and high mortality from genotype II C. shasta , suggesting that these stocks have high susceptibility to this genotype. The results show that both genotypes I and II pose disease risks to adult and juvenile stages of Chinook Salmon in the watershed, and that the Lake Washington Ship Canal could be a C. shasta ‘hot spot’ for genotype II that may increase disease risk for juveniles during smolt emigration.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the transport capacity of the flow and sediment supply, these vegetated systems exhibit a feedback that is not dominant in most rivers. Consequently, unlike in most rivers, it is not possible to predict the “channel pattern” of a vegetated landscape based only on discharge characteristics and sediment supply; the antecedent vegetation pattern and vegetation dynamics must also be known. In general, the stability of different wetland pattern types is most strongly related to factors controlling the erosion and deposition of sediment at vegetation patch edges, the magnitude of sediment redistribution by flow, patch elevation relative to water level, and the variability of erosion rates in vegetation patches with low flow-resistance. As we exemplify in our case-study of the Everglades ridge and slough landscape, feedback between flow and vegetation also causes hysteresis in landscape evolution trajectories that will affect the potential for landscape restoration. Namely, even if the hydrologic conditions that historically produced higher flows are restored, degraded portions of the ridge and slough landscape are unlikely to revert to their former patterning. As wetlands and floodplains worldwide become increasingly threatened by climate change and urbanization, the greater mechanistic understanding of landscape pattern and process that our analysis provides will improve our ability to forecast and manage the behavior of these ecosystems.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Adjusting design floods for urbanization across groundwater-dominated watersheds of Long Island, NY

The magnitude and variability of floods have increased for many nontidal streams on Long Island (LI), NY since the mid-20th century. One of the most densely populated regions of the United States, LI has experienced amplified floods in step with increases in impervious land cover, storm, and sanitary sewers that have accompanied urban development. To better understand the drivers of observed flood trends and effects of urbanization, a nonstationary flood frequency analysis is conducted, using historical annual peak flow records from 17 gaged watersheds on LI using conditional moments based on physical covariates from a two-stage sequential robust linear regression procedure. Regression results indicate that urban development and precipitation are significant co-predictors of peak flows for LI watersheds that have undergone rapid development during the available peak flow record. In watersheds with less intense urbanization or that were fully developed before the peak flow record began, precipitation alone was a significant explanatory variable. Long-term baseflow patterns identified using a nonparametric smoother explained some patterns of decreasing peak flows and heteroskedasticity in the peak flow records. Fitting a log-Pearson III distribution with these conditional moments, floods corresponding to a 20% annual exceedance probability (AEP) are up to 80% higher under a nonstationary framework compared with stationary under current watershed conditions, and differ significantly (95% confidence) from stationary estimates for 6 out of 17 watersheds. Larger floods corresponding to 1% AEPs do not differ significantly between nonstationary and stationary estimates at a 95% confidence level. Nonmonotonic trends observed in two watersheds indicate that recent stormwater management practices, such as rerouting stormwater outfalls away from the channel, substantially reduce flood frequency. Reduced nonstationary flood quantile estimates at these two watersheds are 20 to 40% lower than stationary estimates when accounting for changing watershed conditions over time. Across LI, stormwater management and water-table fluctuations have increased peak flow variability, characteristic of a late phase urban adjustment period on LI. Results of this study demonstrate that a nonstationary framework is a necessary step forward toward a regional flood-frequency analysis for LI. This nonstationary framework will allow flood managers to update flood discharge estimates to current conditions that reflect altered relationships between urban cover and climate for more targeted planning of flood control, transportation infrastructure, and management of floodplain ecosystems.

New York↗

USGS2025

Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change

Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas—plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as habitat benefits, but how the design of horizontal levees influences risk of levee failure remains unquantified. We use a hydrodynamic model, XBeach non-hydrostatic (XB-NH), to assess the stability and sustainability of existing levees and determine how hybrid nature-based climate adaptation measures can reduce the risk of overtopping on levees in San Francisco Bay. We compare overtopping rates in the existing levee system and in a variety of nature-based adaptation scenarios using a range of widths and slopes of horizontal levees to assess how horizontal levees perform in reducing risk of flooding, both with present day conditions and sea level rise. We show that climate change will challenge existing levee flood defenses in San Francisco Bay and increase the risk of overtopping, and that the nature-based solution of horizontal levees can meaningfully reduce risk of overtopping while simultaneously supporting marsh habitat. Flood risk reduction and habitat provision are both maximized with more gradually sloping and wider horizontal levee designs. Results show that the risk of overtopping can be reduced by up to 30% with horizontal levees. This analysis provides insight into horizontal levee design considerations and a methodological approach to adapt levees to prepare for climate change in urban wave-exposed estuaries. We show that horizontal levees can support preparation for the projected impacts of sea level rise (SLR) while simultaneously providing new intertidal wetland habitat.

California↗

USGS2023

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Washington's economy

Washington State has a geographically diverse and spectacular landscape that is divided to the east and west by the largely volcanic mountains of the Cascade Range. Approximately 88 percent of the population lives in western Washington, mostly in urban areas. The climate is varied, with high precipitation and seasonal flooding in the western part of the State, while drier conditions are found east of the Cascades. Where the terrain is mountainous, the dominant vegetation is coniferous forests, which are prone to frequent seasonal fires. The climate and land use in combination with a dynamic geology result in frequent landslides. Washington has the second highest risk, after California, of large and damaging earthquakes because of its geologic setting. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Washington↗

USGS1990

Base-flow-frequency characteristics of selected Pennsylvania streams

Streamflow hydrographs of 309 streamflow stations in Pennsylvania were analyzed by using three computer-assisted empirical methods--local-minimum , fixed-interval, and sliding-interval--to separate the ground-water and surface-runoff components. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-year base-flow-recurrence intervals were determined for each station. The 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals were determined for stations with minimums of 25 and 50 years of record, respectively. All active and inactive continuous-recording Pennsylvania streamflow stations with 10 or more years of record through water year 1986 were analyzed. Stations on the Delaware River in New York and New Jersey also were included. Hydrograph analysis by computer provides consistency of results by removing the subjectivity inherent in manual analyses and considerably reduces the time required to make the analyses. Estimates of the 25-year base-flow-recurrence interval made by using the local-minimum technique, which gives the most conservative estimate, range from 0.069 to 0.888 million gallons per day per square mile. Base flows estimated by using the three computer-assisted techniques compared well with published base flows estimated by using manual methods for three studies in southeastern Pennsylvania. Examples of the effects of geology, climate, regulation, and urbanization on base flow are provided.

Pennsylvania↗