SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Trends in Plant Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2001

Habitat evaluation using GIS a case study applied to the San Joaquin Kit Fox

Concern over the fate of plant and animal species throughout the world has accelerated over recent decades. Habitat loss is considered the main culprit in reducing many species' abundance and range, leading to numerous efforts to plan and manage habitat preservation. Our work uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data and modeling to define a spatially explicit analysis of habitat value, using the San Joaquin Kit Fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica) of California (USA) as an example. Over the last 30 years, many field studies and surveys have enhanced our knowledge of the life history, behavior, and needs of the kit fox, which has been proposed as an umbrella or indicator species for grassland habitat in the San Joaquin Valley of California. There has yet been no attempt to convert much of this field knowledge into a model of spatial habitat value useful for planning purposes. This is a significant omission given the importance and visibility of the imperiled kit fox and increasing trends toward spatially explicit modeling and planning. In this paper we apply data from northern California to derive a small-cell GIS raster of habitat value for the kit fox that incorporates both intrinsic habitat quality and neighborhood context, as well the effects of barriers such as roads. Such a product is a useful basis for assessing the presence and amounts of good (and poor) quality habitat and for eventually constructing GIS representations of viable animal territories that could be included in future reserves. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

USGS2006

The spatial and temporal trends of Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn in Seine River floodplain deposits (1994-2000)

Fresh floodplain deposits (FD), from 11 key stations, covering the Seine mainstem and its major tributaries (Yonne, Marne and Oise Rivers), were sampled from 1994 to 2000. Background levels for Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn were established using prehistoric FD and actual bed sediments collected in small forested sub-basins in the most upstream part of the basin. Throughout the Seine River Basin, FD contain elevated concentrations of Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn compared to local background values (by factors > twofold). In the Seine River Basin, trace element concentrations display substantial downstream increases as a result of increasing population densities, particularly from Greater Paris (10 million inhabitants), and reach their maxima at the river mouth (Poses). These elevated levels make the Seine one of the most heavily impacted rivers in the world. On the other hand, floodplain-associated trace element levels have declined over the past 7 years. This mirrors results from contemporaneous suspended sediment surveys at the river mouth for the 1984-1999 period. Most of these temporal declines appear to reflect reductions in industrial and domestic solid wastes discharged from the main Parisian sewage plant (Seine Aval). ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Trends in pesticide use on soybean, corn and cotton since the introduction of major genetically modified crops in the United States

BACKGROUND Genetically modified (GM) varieties of soybean, corn and cotton have largely replaced conventional varieties in the United States. The most widely used applications of GM technology have been the development of crops that are resistant to a specific broad-spectrum herbicide (primarily glyphosate) or that produce insecticidal compounds within the plant itself. With the widespread adoption of GM crops, a decline in the use of conventional pesticides was expected. RESULTS There has been a reduction in the annual herbicide application rate to corn since the advent of GM crops, but the herbicide application rate is mostly unchanged for cotton. Herbicide use on soybean has increased. There has been a substantial reduction in the amount of insecticides used on both corn and cotton since the introduction of GM crops. CONCLUSIONS The observed changes in pesticide use are likely to be the result of many factors, including the introduction of GM crops, regulatory restrictions on some conventional pesticides, introduction of new pesticide technologies and changes in farming practices. In order to help protect human and environmental health and to help agriculture plan for the future, more detailed and complete documentation on pesticide use is needed on a frequent and ongoing basis.

Pest Management Science↗

USGS2012

Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

Washington↗

USGS2002

Leaf cellulose δD and δ 18 O trends with elevation differ in direction among co-occurring, semiarid plant species

The potential to reconstruct paleoclimate from analyses of stable isotopes in fossil leaf cellulose could be enhanced by adequate calibration. This potential is likely to be particularly great in mid-latitude deserts, where a rich store of fossil leaves is available from rodent middens. Trends in ??D and ??18O of leaf cellulose were examined for three species growing across climatic gradients caused by elevation and slope aspect in southeastern Utah, USA. The species differed in morphology (Pinus edulis vs. Yucca glauca), photosynthetic pathway (C3 Y. glauca vs. CAM Yucca baccata) or both (P. edulis vs. Y. baccata). The ??DLCN (leaf cellulose nitrate) and ??18OLC (leaf cellulose) values of P. edulis decreased with elevation. Stem water ??D values either increased (in spring) or did not change with elevation (in summer). Needle water ??D values usually decreased with elevation and differed greatly with leaf age. These results suggest that ?? cellulose values of P. edulis record the effects of climate on the isotopic composition of leaf water but not climate effects on meteoric water. In contrast to P. edulis, ??DLCN values of Y. glauca increased with elevation. The ??18O LC values ofc Y. glauca also increased with elevation but less significantly and only on south-facing slopes. The ?? cellulose values in both P. edulis and Y. glauca were most significantly related to changes in temperature, although temperature and precipitation were negatively correlated in the study area. Where all three species co-occurred, their ??DLCN values differed but their ??18O LC values were the same. The disparity in ??DLCN between Y. baccata and the other species corresponds to differences in biochemical fractionations associated with photosynthetic pathway. Biochemical fractionations may also contribute to differences between the two C3 species. Knowledge of factors affecting responses of individual plant species to environment may be required to infer climate from ??DLCN and ??18OLC. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2007

Carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter across continental Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary sections: Implications for paleoenvironment after the K-T impact event

To assess the environmental perturbation induced by the impact event that marks the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary, concentrations and isotopic compositions of bulk organic carbon were determined in sedimentary rocks that span the terrestrial K-T boundary at Dogie Creek, Montana, and Brownie Butte, Wyoming in the Western Interior of the United States. The boundary clays at both sites are not bounded by coals. Although coals consist mainly of organic matter derived from plant tissue, siliceous sedimentary rocks, such as shale and clay, may contain organic matter derived from microbiota as well as plants. Coals record ??13C values of plant-derived organic matter, reflecting the ??13C value of atmospheric CO2, whereas siliceous sedimentary rocks record the ??13C values of organic matter derived from plants and microbiota. The microbiota ??13C value reflects not only the ??13C value of atmospheric CO2, but also biological productivity. Therefore, the siliceous rocks from these sites yields information that differs from that obtained previously from coal beds. Across the freshwater K-T boundary at Brownie Butte, the ??13C values decrease by 2.6??? (from - 26.15??? below the boundary clay to - 28.78??? above the boundary clay), similar to the trend in carbonate at marine K-T sites. This means that the organic ??13C values reflect the variation of ??13C of atmospheric CO2, which is in equilibrium with carbon isotopes at the ocean surface. Although a decrease in ??13C values is observed across the K-T boundary at Dogie Creek (from - 25.32??? below the boundary clay to - 26.11??? above the boundary clay), the degree of ??13C-decrease at Dogie Creek is smaller than that at Brownie Butte and that for marine carbonate. About 2??? decrease in ??13C of atmospheric CO2 was expected from the ??13C variation of marine carbonate at the K-T boundary. This ??13C-decrease of atmospheric CO2 should affect the ??13C values of organic matter derived from plant tissue. As such a decrease in ??13C value was not observed at Dogie Creek, a process that compensates the ??13C-decrease of atmospheric CO2 should be involved. For example, the enhanced contribution of 13C-enriched organic matter derived from algae in a high-productivity environment could be responsible. The ??13C values of algal organic matter become higher than, and thus distinguishable from, those of plant organic matter in situations with high productivity, where dissolved HCO3- becomes an important carbon source, as well as dissolved CO2. As the ??13C-decrease of atmospheric CO2 reflected a reduction of marine productivity, the compensation of the ??13C decrease by the enhanced activity of the terrestrial microbiota means that the microbiota at freshwater environment recovered more rapidly than those in the marine environment. A distinct positive ??13C excursion of 2??? in the K-T boundary clays is superimposed on the overall decreasing trend at Dogie Creek; this coincides with an increase in the content of organic carbon. We conclude that the K-T boundary clays include 13C-enriched organic matter derived from highly productive algae. Such a high biological productivity was induced by phenomena resulting from the K-T impact, such as nitrogen fertilization and/or eutrophication induced by enhanced sulfide formation. The high productivity recorded in the K-T boundary clays means that the freshwater environments (in contrast to marine environments) recovered rapidly enough to almost immediately (within 10??yr) respond to the impact-related environmental perturbations. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2018

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2014

Methylmercury production in and export from agricultural wetlands in California, USA: the need to account for physical transport processes into and out of the root zone

Concentration and mass balance analyses were used to quantify methylmercury (MeHg) loads from conventional (white) rice, wild rice, and fallowed fields in northern California's Yolo Bypass. These analyses were standardized against chloride to distinguish transport pathways and net ecosystem production (NEP). During summer, chloride loads were both exported with surface water and moved into the root zone at a 2:1 ratio. MeHg and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) behaved similarly with surface water and root zone exports at ~ 3:1 ratio. These trends reversed in winter with DOC, MeHg, and chloride moving from the root zone to surface waters at rates opposite and exceeding summertime root zone fluxes. These trends suggest that summer transpiration advectively moves constituents from surface water into the root zone, and winter diffusion, driven by concentration gradients, subsequently releases those constituents into surface waters. The results challenge a number of paradigms regarding MeHg. Specifically, biogeochemical conditions favoring microbial MeHg production do not necessarily translate to synchronous surface water exports; MeHg may be preserved in the soils allowing for release at a later time; and plants play a role in both biogeochemistry and transport. Our calculations show that NEP of MeHg occurred during both summer irrigation and winter flooding. Wild rice wet harvesting and winter flooding of white rice fields were specific practices that increased MeHg export, both presumably related to increased labile organic carbon and disturbance. Outflow management during these times could reduce MeHg exports. Standardizing MeHg outflow:inflow concentration ratios against natural tracers (e.g. chloride, EC) provides a simple tool to identify NEP periods. Summer MeHg exports averaged 0.2 to 1 μg m − 2 for the different agricultural wetland fields, depending upon flood duration. Average winter MeHg exports were estimated at 0.3 μg m − 2 . These exports are within the range reported for other shallow aquatic systems.

California↗

USGS2014

Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations. In this report, we describe and make available a set of 61 georectified aerial images of the Arctic Coastal Plain (taken from 1948 to 2010) that were obtained by the USGS to inform research objectives of the USGS CAE Initiative. Here, we describe the origins, metadata, and public availability of these images that were obtained within four main study areas on the Arctic Coastal Plain: Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Chipp River, the Colville River Delta, and locations along the Dalton Highway Corridor between the Brooks Range and Deadhorse. We also provide general descriptions of observable changes to the geomorphology of landscapes that are apparent by comparing historical and contemporary images. These landscape changes include altered river corridors, lake drying, coastal erosion, and new vegetation communities. All original and georectified images and metadata are available through the USGS Alaska Science Center Portal (search under ‘Project Name’ using title of this report) or by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov .

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Transport of chemical and microbial compounds from known wastewater discharges: Potential for use as indicators of human fecal contamination

The quality of drinking and recreational water is currently (2005) determined using indicator bacteria. However, the culture tests used to analyze for these bacteria require a long time to complete and do not discriminate between human and animal fecal material sources. One complementary approach is to use chemicals found in human wastewater, which would have the advantages of (1) potentially shorter analysis times than the bacterial culture tests and (2) being selected for human-source specificity. At 10 locations, water samples were collected upstream and at two successive points downstream from a wastewaster treatment plant (WWTP); a treated effluent sample was also collected at each WWTP. This sampling plan was used to determine the persistence of a chemically diverse suite of emerging contaminants in streams. Samples were also collected at two reference locations assumed to have minimal human impacts. Of the 110 chemical analytes investigated in this project, 78 were detected at least once. The number of compounds in a given sample ranged from 3 at a reference location to 50 in a WWTP effluent sample. The total analyte load at each location varied from 0.018 μg/L at the reference location to 97.7 μg/L in a separate WWTP effluent sample. Although most of the compound concentrations were in the range of 0.01−1.0 μg/L, in some samples, individual concentrations were in the range of 5−38 μg/L. The concentrations of the majority of the chemicals present in the samples generally followed the expected trend:  they were either nonexistent or at trace levels in the upstream samples, had their maximum concentrations in the WWTP effluent samples, and then declined in the two downstream samples. This research suggests that selected chemicals are useful as tracers of human wastewater discharge.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2012

Intra- and inter-annual trends in phosphorus loads and comparison with nitrogen loads to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware (USA)

Monthly phosphorus loads from uplands, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater to Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) were determined from October 1998 to April 2002 to evaluate the relative importance of these three sources of P to the Bay. Loads from a representative subwatershed were determined and used in an areal extrapolation to estimate the upland load from the entire watershed. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved organic P (DOP) are the predominant forms of P in baseflow and P loads from the watershed are highest during the summer months. Particulate phosphorus (PP) becomes more significant in stormflow and during periods with more frequent or larger storms. Atmospheric deposition of P is only a minor source of P to Rehoboth Bay. During the period of 1998–2002, wastewater was the dominant external source of P to Rehoboth Bay, often exceeding all other P sources combined. Since 2002, however, due to technical improvements to the sole wastewater plant discharging directly to the Bay, the wastewater contribution of P has been significantly reduced and upland waters are now the principal source of P on an annualized basis. Based on comparison of N and P loads, primary productivity and biomass carrying capacity in Rehoboth Bay should be limited by P availability. However, due to the contrasting spatial and temporal patterns of N and P loading and perhaps internal cycling within the ecosystem, spatial and temporal variations in N and P-limitation within Rehoboth Bay are likely.

Delaware↗

USGS2024

Trends in plant cover derived from vegetation plot data using ordinal zero-augmented beta regression

Questions Plant cover values in vegetation plot data are bounded between 0 and 1, and cover is typically recorded in discrete classes with non-equal intervals. Consequently, cover data are skewed and heteroskedastic, which hampers the application of conventional regression methods. Recently developed ordinal beta regression models consider these statistical difficulties. Our primary question is whether we can detect species trends in vegetation plot time series data with this modelling approach. A second question is whether trends in cover have additional value compared to trends in occurrence, which are easier to assess for practitioners. Location The Netherlands, Western Europe. Methods We used vegetation plot data collected from 10,000 fixed plots which were surveyed once every four years during 1999–2022. We used the ordinal zero-augmented beta regression (OZAB) model, a hierarchical model consisting of a logistic regression for presence and an ordinal beta regression for cover. We adapted the OZAB model for longitudinal data and produced estimates of cover and occurrence for each four-year period. Thereafter we assessed trends in cover and in occurrence across all periods. Results We found evidence of a trend in cover in 318 out of the 721 species (44%) with sufficient data. Most species showed similar directional trends in occurrence and percent cover. No trend in occurrence was detected for 64 species that had evidence of a trend in cover. Declining species had stronger relative changes in cover than in occurrence. Conclusions Our model enables researchers to detect trends in cover using longitudinal vegetation plot data. Cover trends often corroborated trends in occurrence, but we also regularly found trends in cover even in the absence of evidence for trends in occurrence. Our approach thus contributes to a more complete picture of (changes in) vegetation composition based on large monitoring data sets.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

USGS2008

Coherent changes in relative C4 plant productivity and climate during the late Quaternary in the North American Great Plains

Evolution of the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the North American Great Plains is poorly understood because of limited proxies available for environmental interpretations. Buried soils in the Great Plains provide a solution to the problem because they are widespread both spatially and temporally with their organic reservoirs serving as a link to the plants than once grew on them. Through stable carbon isotopic analysis of soil organic carbon (??13C), the percent carbon from C4 plants (%C4) can be ascertained. Because C4 plants are primarily warm season grasses responding positively to summer temperature, their representation has the added advantage of serving as a climate indicator. To better understand grassland and climate dynamics in the Great Plains during the last 12 ka (ka=1000 radiocarbon years) we developed an isotopic standardization technique by: determining the difference in buried soil ??13C and modern soil ??13C expected for that latitude (????13C), and transferring the ????13C to ??%C4 (% C4) using mass balance calculations. Our analysis reveals two isotopic stages in the mixed and shortgrass prairie of the Great Plains based on trends in ??%C4. In response to orbital forcing mechanisms, ??%C4 was persistently below modern in the Great Plains between 12 and 6.7 ka (isotopic stage II) evidently because of the cooling effect of the Laurentide ice sheet and proglacial lakes in northern latitudes, and glacial meltwater pulses cooling the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean. The ??%C4 after 6.7 ka (isotopic stage I) increased to modern levels as conditioned by the outflow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and dry incursions from the west that produced periodic drought. At the millennial-scale, time series analysis demonstrates that ??%C4 oscillated with 0.6 and 1.8 ka periodicities, possibly governed by variations in solar irradiance. Our buried soil isotopic record correlates well with other environmental proxy from the Great Plains and surrounding regions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2019

Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: Plant mortality from drought and warming

The occurrence of plant species across the globe is largely constrained by climate. Ecologists use plant-climate relationships such as bioclimatic envelopes and related niche models to determine potential environmental conditions promoting probable species occurrence. Traditionally bioclimatic envelopes either exclude disturbance explicitly, or only include disturbance as infrequent and smaller scale processes, assuming that the net effect of climate parameters on key demographic processes predict longer-term equilibrial responses of biota. Due to increasing frequency and extent of extreme events associated with climate change, ecologists may need to increase focus on individual demographic events driven by environmental extremes such as widespread coral bleaching or large-scale tree die-off. An expanded focus on how extreme events catalyze individual demographic events would complement existing tools that predict long-term equilibrial biogeographic responses associated with long-term trends in climate. In many cases, extreme conditions (e.g. drought) are a necessary precursor for an abrupt demographic event (e.g. large-scale tree die-off) and the effects of extremes can be exacerbated by climatic trends (e.g. higher temperatures in combination with drought). Here, we highlight application of bioclimatic models for predicting individual demographic events. Defining the environmental conditions that precipitate demographic events such as widespread tree mortality is a necessary precursor for applying predictions to geographic space, and may require challenging biota with experiments that impose a combination of ecologically extreme conditions in one parameter and a shifting distribution in another (e.g. drought under higher temperatures). Currently data on conditions that drive individual demographic events associated with extremes are usually rare, aggregated across time, and/or correlative. We highlight this approach with a case study of drought-induced mortality in adult Pinus edulis trees that predicts a more than five-fold increase in frequency of die-off events under a global change scenario of high emissions. This general approach complements both traditional bioclimatic envelopes and more detailed physiological approaches currently being refined to address climate change challenges. Notably, this proposed approach could be developed for any climate condition or plant life stage, offering promise for improving predictions of individual demographic events that are rapidly altering ecosystems globally.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS2000

Atmospheric nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin: Amissions, deposition and transport

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen has been cited as a major factor in the nitrogen saturation of forests in the north-eastern United States and as a contributor to the eutrophication of coastal waters, including the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Sources of nitrogen emissions and the resulting spatial patterns of nitrogen deposition within the Mississippi River Basin, however, have not been fully documented. An assessment of atmospheric nitrogen in the Mississippi River Basin was therefore conducted in 1998-1999 to: (1) evaluate the forms in which nitrogen is deposited from the atmosphere; (2) quantify the spatial distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition throughout the basin; and (3) relate locations of emission sources to spatial deposition patterns to evaluate atmospheric transport. Deposition data collected through the NADP/NTN (National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network) and CASTNet (Clean Air Status and Trends Network) were used for this analysis. NO(x) Tier 1 emission data by county was obtained for 1992 from the US Environmental Protection Agency (Emissions Trends Viewer CD, 1985-1995, version 1.0, September 1996) and NH3 emissions data was derived from the 1992 Census of Agriculture (US Department of Commerce. Census of Agriculture, US Summary and County Level Data, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Geographic Area series, 1995:1b) or the National Agricultural Statistics Service (US Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service Historical Data. Accessed 7/98 at URL, 1998. http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/hisdata.htm). The highest rates of wet deposition of NO3- were in the north-eastern part of the basin, downwind of electric utility plants and urban areas, whereas the highest rates of wet deposition of NH4+ were in Iowa, near the center of intensive agricultural activities in the Midwest. The lowest rates of atmospheric nitrogen deposition were on the western (windward) side of the basin, which suggests that most of the nitrogen deposited within the basin is derived from internal sources. Atmospheric transport eastward across the basin boundary is greater for NO3- than NH4+, but a significant amount of NH4+ is likely to be transported out of the basin through the formation of (NH4)2SO4 and NH4NO3 particles - a process that greatly increases the atmospheric residence time of NH4+. This process is also a likely factor in the atmospheric transport of nitrogen from the Midwest to upland forest regions in the North-East, such as the western Adirondack region of New York, where NH4+ constitutes 38% of the total wet deposition of N.

Science of Total Environment↗

USGS2025

Combining ecological and genomic diversity surveys to inform conservation and restoration of an endangered wetland plant, soft salty bird’s-beak (Chloropyron molle ssp. molle)

Emergent tidal wetlands are declining globally as a result of sea level rise and land use change. This habitat loss can keenly affect rare plant species within wetlands, and may require restoration to meet species recovery goals related to retaining populations throughout species' ranges. Soft salty bird’s-beak ( Chloropyron molle ssp. molle ) is a federally- and state-endangered hemi-parasitic plant that occurs at the upper marsh transition zone in the San Francisco Bay–Delta, California, USA. We combined field surveys to document habitat associations and trends in abundance with genomic surveys to understand patterns of genetic structure in this rare endemic. We found that C . molle ssp. molle persisted at nine previously occupied marsh sites, although four sites (Hill Slough, MOTCO East, Fagan Marsh, and Joice Island) were smaller in population size than when surveyed in the 1990s. Additionally, twelve sites contained plots with suitable but unoccupied habitat that could be further assessed for restoration. Genomic analysis of over 40,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 253 individuals grouped C . molle ssp. molle into six to seven regional genetic clusters with isolation by distance, and confirmed that C . molle ssp. molle is genetically distinct from adjacent populations of its closest relative ( C . molle ssp. hispidum ). The western-most C . molle ssp. molle sites of Point Pinole and Fagan Marsh were the most genetically and geographically isolated and had the lowest genome-wide diversity. Heterozygosity in sets of genes associated with tidal elevation, salinity, and annual and summer precipitation varied independently across populations. Overall, these genomic patterns indicate that selecting donor sites with similar environmental conditions and utilizing composite seeding approaches from multiple sites could allow for local adaptation to a range of possible environmental conditions. This comprehensive survey of habitat and genomic patterns can allow for the development of restoration actions and build climate-adaptation planning to help prevent the loss of a rare plant.

California↗

USGS2015

Modeling tidal freshwater marsh sustainability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under a broad suite of potential future scenarios

In this paper, we report on the adaptation and application of a one-dimensional marsh surface elevation model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate the range of observed values over historic and modern time-scales based on measurements from four marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments as well as possible future trends in sediment supply and mean sea level. A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conducted encompassing a range of eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. porosity values, initial elevations, organic and inorganic matter accumulation rates, and sea-level rise rates. For the range of inputs considered, the magnitude of SLR over the next century was the primary driver of marsh surface elevation change. Sediment supply was the secondary control. More than 84% of the scenarios resulted in sustainable marshes with 88 cm of SLR by 2100, but only 32% and 11% of the scenarios resulted in surviving marshes when SLR was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. Marshes situated in high-energy zones were marginally more resilient than those in low-energy zones because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. Overall, the results from this modeling exercise suggest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the Delta—where SLR may be attenuated—and high energy marshes along major channels with high inorganic sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century than their downstream and low-energy counterparts. However, considerable uncertainties exist in the projected rates of sea-level rise and sediment avail-ability. In addition, more research is needed to constrain future rates of aboveground and belowground plant productivity under increased CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and flooding.

California↗