USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Trends in Ecology and Evolution”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Predicting the response of a long-distance migrant to changing environmental conditions in winter

Access to high-quality food is critical for long-distance migrants to provide energy for migration and arrival at breeding grounds in good condition. We studied effects of changing abundance and availability of a marine food, common eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.), on an arctic-breeding, migratory goose, black brant ( Brant bernicla nigricans Lawrence 1846), at a key non-breeding site, Bahía San Quintín, Mexico. Eelgrass, the primary food of brant, is consumed when exposed by the tide or within reach from the water's surface. Using an individual-based model, we predicted effects of observed changes (1991–2013) in parameters influencing food abundance and availability: eelgrass biomass (abundance), eelgrass shoot length (availability, as longer shoots more within reach), brant population size (availability, as competition greater with more birds), and sea level (availability, as less food within reach when sea level higher). The model predicted that the ability to gain enough energy to migrate was most strongly influenced by eelgrass biomass (threshold January biomass for migration = 60 g m −2 dry mass). Conversely, annual variation in population size (except for 1998), was relatively low, and variation in eelgrass shoot length and sea level were not strongly related to ability to migrate. We used observed data on brant body mass at Bahía San Quintín and annual survival to test for effects of eelgrass biomass in the real system. The lowest observed values of body mass and survival were in years when biomass was below 60 g m −2 , although in some years of low biomass body mass and/or survival was higher. This suggests that the real birds may have some capacity to compensate to meet their energy demands when eelgrass biomass is low. We discuss consequences for brant population trends and conservation.

Baja California↗
USGS2020

Evidence for a growing population of eastern migratory monarch butterflies is currently insufficient

The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies has experienced a multi-decadal decline, but a recent increase in abundance (to 6.05 ha in winter 2018) has led some observers to question whether the population has reversed its long-standing decline and embarked on a trajectory of increasing abundance. We examined this possibility through changepoint analyses, first assessing whether a change in trajectory existed and whether that change was sufficient to alter our estimated risk for the population. We found evidence of a change in trajectory in 2014, but insufficient statistical support for a significantly increasing population since that time (β = 0.285, 95% CI = -0.127, 0.697). If the population estimate for winter 2019 is ≥4.0 ha, we will then be able to credibly assert the population has been increasing since 2014. However, given estimated levels of time series variability, presumed habitat capacity and no recent change in status or trend, there was a 13.5% probability of observing a population estimate as large or larger than was reported for winter 2018. Despite insufficient evidence for an increasing population, near-term risk of quasi-extinction by 2023 has declined (mean risk declining from 43% to 20%) because of higher abundance estimates since 2014. Our analyses highlight the incredible difficulty in drawing robust conclusions from annual changes in abundance over a short time series, especially for an insect that commonly exhibits considerable year-to-year variation. Thus, we urge caution when drawing conclusions regarding species status and trends for any species for which limited data are available.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Moose habitat selection and fitness consequences during two critical winter tick life stages in Vermont, United States

The moose ( Alces alces ) is a charismatic species in decline across much of their southern distribution in North America. In the northeastern United States, much of the reduction has been attributed to winter tick ( Dermacentor albipictus ) infestations. Winter ticks are fairly immobile throughout all life stages, and therefore their distribution patterns at any given time are shaped largely by the occurrence of moose across the landscape during the peak of two critical time periods: fall questing (when ticks latch onto moose) and spring drop-off (when engorged female ticks detach from moose). We used recent land cover and lidar data within a dynamic occupancy modeling framework to estimate first-order habitat selection (use vs. non-use) of female moose ( n = 74) during the tick questing and drop-off periods. Patch extinction and colonization rates between the fall questing and spring drop-off periods were strongly influenced by habitat and elevation, but these effects were diminished during the fall questing period when moose were more active across the landscape. From the fall questing period to the spring drop-off period, patches where colonization was high and extinction was low had higher proportions of young (shrub/forage) mixed forest at higher elevations. Further, we evaluated the fitness consequences of habitat selection by adult females during the fall questing period, when females and their calves acquire ticks. We compared Resource Selection Functions (RSF) for five females that successfully reared a calf to age 1 with five females whose calves perished due to ticks. Adult female moose whose offspring perished selected habitats in the fall that spatially coincided with areas of high occupancy probability during the spring tick drop-off period. In contrast, adult female moose whose offspring survived selected areas where the probability of occupancy during the spring drop-off was low; at present, natural selection may favor female adults who do not select the same habitats in fall as in spring. Our model coefficients and mapped results define “hotspots” that are likely encouraging the deleterious effects of the tick-moose cycle. These findings fill knowledge gaps about moose habitat selection that may improve the effectiveness of management aimed at reversing declining population trends.

Vermont↗
USGS2023

Confirmation of significant sea turtle nesting activity on a remote island chain in the Gulf of Mexico

Globally, six of the seven sea turtle species are threatened or endangered and as such, monitoring reproductive activity for these species is necessary for effective population recovery. Remote beaches provide a challenge to conducting these surveys, which often results in data gaps that can hamper management planning. Throughout the summer of 2022, aerial surveys were conducted over the Chandeleur Islands in the Gulf of Mexico. Turtle crawls were photographed for subsequent review by 10 expert observers. Whenever possible, ground surveys were conducted, and samples of unhatched eggs or dead hatchlings were collected. A summary of historic reports of sea turtle nesting activity at this site was also compiled. On 11 days between May 4, 2022, and July 30, 2022, photographs of 55 potential sea turtle crawls were taken. Observers identified 54 of those as being made by a sea turtle. There was high-to-moderate certainty that 16 of those crawls were nests, that 14 were made by loggerheads, and that two were made by Kemp's ridleys. Observers were least certain of species identification when surveys were conducted during rainy weather. Genetic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA were conducted on samples from five nests and those analyses confirmed that three nests were laid by Kemp's ridleys and two were laid by loggerheads. Historic records from the Chandeleur Islands substantiate claims that the Chandeleurs have supported sea turtle nesting activity for decades; however, the consistency of this activity remains unknown. Our aerial surveys, particularly when coupled with imaging, were a useful tool for documenting nesting activity on these remote islands. Future monitoring programs at this site could benefit from a standardized aerial survey program with a seaplane so trends in nesting activity could be determined particularly as the beach undergoes restoration.

Louisiana↗
USGS2013

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946–1975; 1976–2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2022

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin↗
USGS2016

Channel-planform evolution in four rivers of Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A.: The roles of physical drivers and trophic cascades

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A., to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors—excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago—are the dominant controls on channel planform of these gravel-bed rivers. We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers have widened significantly in recent decades, consistent with increased flood activity since the 1970s. Channel planform also reflects sediment-supply changes, evident from landslide response on the Elwha River. We surmise that the Hoh River, which shows a multi-decadal trend toward greater braiding, is adjusting to increased sediment supply associated with rapid glacial retreat. In this sediment-routing system with high connectivity, such climate-driven signals appear to propagate downstream without being buffered substantially by sediment storage. Legacy effects of anthropogenic modification likely also affect the Quinault River planform. We infer no correspondence between channel geomorphic evolution and elk abundance, suggesting that trophic-cascade effects in this setting are subsidiary to physical controls on channel morphology. Our findings differ from previous interpretations of Olympic National Park fluvial dynamics and contrast with the classic example of Yellowstone National Park, where legacy effects of elk overuse are apparent in channel morphology; we attribute these differences to hydrologic regime and large-wood availability.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes) , two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2022

Defining fine-scaled population structure among continuously distributed populations

Understanding wildlife population structure and connectivity can help managers identify conservation strategies, as structure can facilitate the study of population changes and habitat connectivity can provide information on dispersal and biodiversity. To facilitate the use of wildlife monitoring data for improved adaptive management, we developed a novel approach to define hierarchical tiers (multiple scales) of population structure. We defined population structure by combining graph theory with biological inference about dispersal capability (based on movement, gene flow, and habitat condition) and functional processes affecting movement (e.g. habitat selection across scales of landscape preferences). First, we developed least-cost paths between high fidelity sites (habitat patches) using a cost surface, informed from functional processes of habitat characteristics to account for resistance of inter-patch movements. Second, we combined the paths into a multi-path graph construct. Third, we used information on potential connectivity (dispersal distances) and functional connectivity (permeability of fragmented landscapes based on selection preferences) to decompose the graph into hierarchical tiers of connected subpopulations, denoting the degree that dispersal affected population structure. As a case study, we applied our approach across the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) range, a species of conservation concern in western United States. We described the relative importance of local populations and where to potentially avoid landscape disturbances that may negatively affect population connectivity using centrality measures supported by graph theory, and we demonstrated close alignment of the resulting population structure with population densities. This method can be adapted for other species with site fidelity and used as a management tool to evaluate population trends and responses to landscape changes across different temporal and spatial scales.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Evidence for marine-driven, cyclical fluctuations in burrow-nesting seabird habitat on the Oregon Coast

Seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, with the loss or deterioration of coastal breeding habitats posing a severe threat. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances substantially influence coastal ecosystems through erosion and vegetation loss, altering habitat for the wildlife species that depend on them. In addition to these disturbances, oceanographic processes may play an important role in shaping the vegetation at breeding habitats; however, there is limited information on how vegetative conditions for burrow nesting seabirds have changed over time, and whether these changes are related to specific oceanographic or climatic factors. The Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex, USA (NWRC) is home to a diverse suite of 1.3 million nesting seabirds from 14 species, which provide valuable ecological, economic, and cultural services, including nutrient transfer to terrestrial habitats and ecotourism for local communities. Over the last 30 years, populations of several burrow nesting seabird species including tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) and rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata ), which breed on offshore islands, have sharply declined along the Oregon Coast. To better understand the potential factors driving these declines, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of an aspect of burrow nesting seabird habitat, vegetation cover, within the Oregon Coast NWRC. Specifically, we quantified vegetative cover on 16 islands from 1992 to 2022 using a combination of empirical data, historical aerial photography (1992–2005), and aerial photography from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (2005–2022). Results showed cyclical fluctuations in vegetation cover coast-wide, which were closely related to large scale oceanographic oscillations. Specifically, vegetation cover was negatively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positively correlated with the spring El Nino Southern Oscillation. We did not directly compare seabird population trends to vegetation trends; however, quantifying these long-term changes in vegetation at breeding habitats can contribute to our comprehensive understanding of the myriad factors influencing seabird population dynamics and conservation.

Oregon↗
USGS2017

The role of paleoecology in restoration and resource management—The past as a guide to future decision-making: Review and example from the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, U.S.A

Resource managers around the world are challenged to develop feasible plans for sustainable conservation and/or restoration of the lands, waters, and wildlife they administer—a challenge made greater by anticipated climate change and associated effects over the next century. Increasingly, paleoecologic and geologic archives are being used to extend the period of record of observed data and provide information on centennial to millennial scale responses to long-term drivers of ecosystem change. The development of paleoecology from an emerging field investigating past environments to a highly relevant applied science is reviewed and general examples of the application of paleoecologic research to resource management questions in diverse habitats and regions are provided. Specific examples of the application of paleoecologic research to the restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida (U.S.A) are presented. Conducting valuable scientific research that would benefit resource management decisions, however, is not enough. Scientists and resource managers need to be engaged in collaborative discussions from the beginning of the research process to ensure that management questions are being addressed and that the science reaches the people who will benefit from the information. Paleoecology and related disciplines provide an understanding of how ecosystems and individual species function and change over time in response to both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Information on pre-anthropogenic baseline conditions is provided by paleoecologic research, but it is the detection of long-term trends and cycles that allow resource managers to set realistic goals and targets by moving away from the fixed-point baseline concept to one of dynamic landscapes that anticipates and incorporates an expectation of change into decision-making.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Nearshore subtidal community response during and after sediment disturbance associated with dam removal

Dam removal is used increasingly to restore aquatic ecosystems and remove unnecessary or high-risk infrastructure. As the number of removals increases, there is a growing understanding about the hydrologic, geomorphic, and ecological responses to these removals. Most dam removal studies, however, focus on river and watershed responses to dam removal. The removal of two dams on the Elwha River provided a unique opportunity to characterize the response of nearshore (coastal) ecosystems. We conducted SCUBA surveys between 2011 and 2022 to quantify trajectories of change in a nearshore ecosystem during and after dam removal. We focused on the degree to which the abundances of kelp, benthic invertebrates, and fish changed in response to patterns of sediment fluxes during and after dam removal. Our findings point to two pathways of response depending on the disturbance mechanism and species type. Sites with persistent sediment deposition were characterized by wholesale community changes that did not recover to a before dam removal condition. Instead, the sites were colonized by new species that were largely absent prior to dam removal. Sites that experienced high turbidity but lacked persistent seafloor deposition were primarily characterized by a reduction in the abundance of kelp and other algae during dam removal and a rapid recovery after sediment flux to the nearshore declined. Dam removal influences on invertebrates and fish at these sites were more variable, benefiting some species and disadvantaging others. In addition to dam removal, sea star wasting syndrome and a marine heatwave exerted distinct controls on subtidal communities during the same period. The loss of the predatory sea star Pycnopodia helianthoides was associated with gains in some of its prey species, and kelp community changes reflected regional trends in ocean temperature and kelp abundance. The results presented here have important implications for understanding the response of marine ecosystems to future dam removals and similar sediment perturbation events.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Nitrogen fixation and fertilization have similar effects on biomass allocation in nitrogen-fixing plants

Plants adjust their allocation to different organs based on nutrient supply. In some plant species, symbioses with nitrogen-fixing bacteria that live in root nodules provide an alternate pathway for nitrogen acquisition. Does access to nitrogen-fixing bacteria modify plants' biomass allocation? We hypothesized that access to nitrogen-fixing bacteria would have the same effect on allocation to aboveground versus belowground tissues as access to plentiful soil nitrogen. To test this hypothesis and related hypotheses about allocation to stems versus leaves and roots versus nodules, we conducted experiments with 15 species of nitrogen-fixing plants in two separate greenhouses. In each, we grew seedlings with and without access to symbiotic bacteria across a wide gradient of soil nitrogen supply. As is common, uninoculated plants allocated relatively less biomass belowground when they had more soil nitrogen. As we hypothesized, nitrogen fixation had a similar effect as the highest level of fertilization on allocation aboveground versus belowground. Both nitrogen fixation and high fertilization led to ~10% less biomass allocated belowground (~10% more aboveground) than the uninoculated, lowest fertilization treatment. Fertilization reduced allocation to nodules relative to roots. The responses for allocation of aboveground tissues to leaves versus stems were not as consistent across greenhouses or species as the other allocation trends, though more nitrogen fixation consistently led to relatively more allocation to leaves when soil nitrogen supply was low. Synthesis: Our results suggest that symbiotic nitrogen fixation causes seedlings to allocate relatively less biomass belowground, with potential implications for competition and carbon storage in early forest development.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2009

Parasitic castration: the evolution and ecology of body snatchers

Castration is a response to the tradeoff between consumption and longevity faced by parasites. Common parasitic castrators include larval trematodes in snails, and isopod and barnacle parasites of crustaceans. The infected host (with its many unique properties) is the extended phenotype of the parasitic castrator. Because an individual parasitic castrator can usurp all the reproductive energy from a host, and that energy is limited, intra- and interspecific competition among castrators is generally intense. These parasites can be abundant and can substantially depress host density. Host populations subject to high rates of parasitic castration appear to respond by maturing more rapidly.

Trends in Parasitology↗
USGS2019

Phenotypic plasticity or a reproductive dead end? Primnoa pacifica (Cnidaria: Alcyonacea) in the southeastern Alaska region

Red tree corals ( Primnoa pacifica ) are abundant in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, from the glacial fjords of Southeast Alaska where they emerge to as shallow as 6 m, to the continental shelf edge and seamounts where they are more commonly found at depths greater than 150 – 500 m. This keystone species forms large thickets, creating habitat for many associated species, including economically valuable fishes and crabs, and so are important benthic suspension feeders in this region. Though the reproductive periodicity of this species was reported in 2014 from a shallow fjord (Tracy Arm), this study examined reproductive ecologies from 8 sites – two within Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, three on the continental shelf edge, one within Endicott Arm (Holkham Bay) and two time points from the Tracy Arm (Holkham Bay) study. Male reproductive traits were similar at all sites but there were distinct differences in oogenesis. Though per polyp fecundity mostly showed no significant difference between sites, there was a non-significant trend of increasing number of oocytes with depth. In addition, the average oocyte size from Tracy Arm (the shallowest site) was 105 μm, whereas from Shutter Ridge (one of the deepest sites) the average size was 309 μm. Moreover, the maximum oocyte size at Endicott Arm was 221 μm and at Tracy Arm was 802 μm (both shallow sites), whereas at Dixon Entrance (a deep site) it was 2120 μm, a difference not usually observed within a single species. We propose two theories to explain the observed differences, (a) this species shows great phenotypic plasticity in reproductive ecology, adjusting to different environmental variables based on energetic need and potentially demonstrating micro-evolution; or (b) the fjord sites are at a reproductive dead end, with the stress of shallow-water conditions effectively preventing gametogenesis reaching full potential and likely limiting successful reproductive events from occurring, at least on a regular basis.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Validation of adipose lipid content as a body condition index for polar bears

Body condition is a key indicator of individual and population health. Yet, there is little consensus as to the most appropriate condition index (CI), and most of the currently used CIs have not been thoroughly validated and are logistically challenging. Adipose samples from large datasets of capture biopsied, remote biopsied, and harvested polar bears were used to validate adipose lipid content as a CI via tests of accuracy, precision, sensitivity, biopsy depth, and storage conditions and comparisons to established CIs, to measures of health and to demographic and ecological parameters. The lipid content analyses of even very small biopsy samples were highly accurate and precise, but results were influenced by tissue depth at which the sample was taken. Lipid content of capture biopsies and samples from harvested adult females was correlated with established CIs and/or conformed to expected biological variation and ecological changes. However, lipid content of remote biopsies was lower than capture biopsies and harvested samples, possibly due to lipid loss during dart retrieval. Lipid content CI is a biologically relevant, relatively inexpensive and rapidly assessed CI and can be determined routinely for individuals and populations in order to infer large-scale spatial and long-term temporal trends. As it is possible to collect samples during routine harvesting or remotely using biopsy darts, monitoring and assessment of body condition can be accomplished without capture and handling procedures or noninvasively, which are methods that are preferred by local communities. However, further work is needed to apply the method to remote biopsies.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Methods for robust estimates of tree biomass from pollen accumulation rates: Quantifying paleoecological reconstruction uncertainty

Pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm –2 year –1 ) have been shown to be a reliable but methodologically complex bioproxy for quantitative reconstruction of past tree abundance. In a prior study, we found that the PARs of major tree taxa – Pseudotsuga , Pinus , Notholithocarpus , and the pollen group TC (Taxaceae and Cupressaceae families) – were robust and precise estimators of contemporary tree biomass. This paper expands our earlier work. Here, we more fully evaluate the errors associated with biomass reconstructions to identify weaknesses and recommend improvements in PAR-based reconstructions of forest biomass. We account for uncertainty in our biomass proxy in a formal, coherent fashion. The greatest error was introduced by the age models, underscoring the need for improved statistical approaches to age-depth modeling. Documenting the uncertainty in pollen vegetation models should be standard practice in paleoecology. We also share insights gained from the delineation of the relevant source area of pollen, advances in Bayesian 210 Pb modeling, the importance of site selection, and the use of independent data to corroborate biomass estimates. Lastly, we demonstrate our workflow with a new dataset of reconstructed tree biomass between 1850 and 2018 AD from lakes in the Klamath Mountains, California. Our biomass records followed a broad trend of low mean biomass in the ∼1850s followed by large contemporary increases, consistent with expectations of forest densification due to twentieth century fire suppression policies in the American West. More recent reconstructed tree biomass estimates also corresponded with silviculture treatments occurring within the relevant source area of pollen of our lake sites.

California↗
USGS2022

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change have been explored in many regions worldwide. While continued drying and warming may alter process rates and deteriorate the state and performance of ecosystems, it could also lead to more fundamental changes in the mechanisms governing ecosystem functioning. Here we argue that climate change will induce unprecedented shifts in these mechanisms in historically wetter climatic zones, towards mechanisms currently prevalent in dry regions, which we refer to as ‘dryland mechanisms’. We discuss 12 dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes of ecosystem functioning, including vegetation development, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, plant production and organic matter decomposition. We then examine mostly rare examples of the operation of these mechanisms in non-dryland regions where they have been considered irrelevant at present. Current and future climate trends could force microclimatic conditions across thresholds and lead to the emergence of dryland mechanisms and their increasing control over ecosystem functioning in many biomes on Earth.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗