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USGS2008

A multiscale analysis of nest predation on Least Bell's Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus )

We examined variables influencing nest predation on the endangered Least Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at three spatial scales to determine what nest-site, habitat, or landscape characteristics affect the likelihood of nest predation and to determine the spatial distribution of predation risk and the variables influencing it. We used MARK to calculate daily survival rates of Least Bell's Vireo nests and applied an information-theoretic approach to evaluate support for logistic regression models of the effect of habitat variables on predation risk. Analysis of data for 195 nests collected during 1999 and 2000 at the San Luis Rey River and Pilgrim Creek in southern California revealed no effect of fine-scale factors, including nest height, supporting plant species, and three measures of nest concealment, on the likelihood of predation. At the intermediate scale, distances to the riparian-habitat edge and to internal gaps in the canopy were unrelated to nest survival. Surrounding land-use type was a poor predictor of predation risk, with the exception of proximity to golf course–park habitat and wetland. Nests within 400 m of golf course–park were only 20% as likely to avoid predation as nests >400 m from this habitat, and nests near wetland were more than twice as likely to survive as nests distant from wetland. Spatially, predation appeared to be random throughout the site, with localized clustering evident in the vicinity of golf course–park and wetland. Our results suggest that the landscape may be the most appropriate scale at which to manage nest predation in this system.

The Auk↗

USGS2014

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Respiratory transmission of an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from a harbour seal

The ongoing human H7N9 influenza infections highlight the threat of emerging avian influenza viruses. In 2011, an avian H3N8 influenza virus isolated from moribund New England harbour seals was shown to have naturally acquired mutations known to increase the transmissibility of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses. To elucidate the potential human health threat, here we evaluate a panel of avian H3N8 viruses and find that the harbour seal virus displays increased affinity for mammalian receptors, transmits via respiratory droplets in ferrets and replicates in human lung cells. Analysis of a panel of human sera for H3N8 neutralizing antibodies suggests that there is no population-wide immunity to these viruses. The prevalence of H3N8 viruses in birds and multiple mammalian species including recent isolations from pigs and evidence that it was a past human pandemic virus make the need for surveillance and risk analysis of these viruses of public health importance.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2018

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Risk Map

The Global Earthquake Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalized by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2 due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalized metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Earthquake Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible limitations in the model, regions portrayed with low risk may experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, which will be updated when new datasets and models become available. Updated versions of the hazard, exposure, and average annual losses will be released on a regular basis. Additional metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem.

Report↗

USGS2018

Advances in sensitivity analysis of uncertainty to changes in sampling density when modeling spatially correlated attributes

A comparative analysis of distance methods, kriging and stochastic simulation is conducted for evaluating their capabilities for predicting fluctuations in uncertainty due to changes in spatially correlated samples. It is concluded that distance methods lack the most basic capabilities to assess reliability despite their wide acceptance. In contrast, kriging and stochastic simulation offer significant improvements by considering probabilistic formulations that provide a basis on which uncertainty can be estimated in a way consistent with practices widely accepted in risk analysis. Additionally, using real thickness data of a coal bed, it is confirmed once more that stochastic simulation outperforms kriging.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Risk at the margins: A natural hazards perspective on the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk analysis is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent armed conflict in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, self-settling throughout the country through urban integration and informal encampment due to Lebanon's prohibition of formal refugee camps. The Syrian-Lebanon refugee crisis coincides with the recent reexamination of the established aid practice of camp-based resettlement, focused on issues of aid efficacy, security, and human dignity but lacking an environmental hazards perspective. In light of these issues, we quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon, finding a 75% increase in landslide risk since the start of the Syrian crisis. The risk is highest in the debris flow-prone mountains of central and northeastern Lebanon. Additionally, Syrian refugees settled in informal camps experience 9–11 times greater risk then urban populations due to sub-standard shelter, suggesting that urban rather than camp-based resettlement policies are preferable from an environmental-hazards perspective.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2019

Assessing potential effects of highway and urban runoff on receiving streams in total maximum daily load watersheds in Oregon using the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model

The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration to simulate stormwater quality. To assess the effects of runoff, SELDM uses a stochastic mass-balance approach to estimate combinations of pre-storm streamflow, stormflow, highway runoff, event mean concentrations (EMCs) and stormwater constituent loads from a site of interest. In addition, SELDM can be used to assess the effects of stormwater Best Management Practices (BMPs), which are designed to mitigate the adverse effects of runoff into a waterbody. Adverse effects of stormwater on receiving waters are one of the greatest unsolved water-quality problems Nationwide. State DOTs, municipalities, Federal facilities, and private property owners who manage impervious surfaces need information about the potential magnitude of their contributions and the potential effectiveness of methods to mitigate the adverse effects of runoff. Because the efficacy of at-site controls are limited, information about the potential effectiveness of alternative strategies is needed. The USGS, in cooperation with the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), conducted a study to research methods in which SELDM can be used to enhance the efficiency of ODOT’s stormwater program, support the development of a stormwater banking program, and meet environmental goals. Results can be used to develop a strategic, systems-level approach to stormwater management by considering entire watersheds instead of individual road crossings. Two watersheds, Bear Creek and Mill Creek, in western Oregon were selected for analysis. Within each watershed, seven road crossings were selected for demonstrating the utility of SELDM in nested basins. Precipitation statistics, pre-storm streamflow, runoff coefficients, and hydrograph recession factors were calculated for each location and used in SELDM to simulate flow, water-quality concentrations, and constituent loads in the upstream basin, from the highway (or developed area), and downstream from the road crossing. Three water-quality constituents were selected for modeling: suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), total phosphorus (TP), and total copper (TCu). Using water-quality transport curves, the relations between streamflow and SSC and between streamflow and TP were simulated. Concentrations of TCu were simulated by configuring a linear relation between SSC and TCu. A generic BMP was simulated using the median treatment statistics for flow reductions, hydrograph extensions, concentration reductions, and minimum irreducible concentrations from nine BMP categories with data from the 2012 International BMP database. Five simulation scenarios were modeled for demonstrative purposes. These simulations were used to evaluate potential effects of different watershed properties, water-quality inputs, and stormwater mitigation measures. Instream EMCs were compared to hypothetical water-quality criteria for suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and total copper to demonstrate the concept of water-quality risk analysis. For all five scenarios, it was assumed that highway runoff concentrations were independent of location or average annual daily traffic. These five scenarios are as follows: • Simulation Scenario 1—Natural Conditions (hereafter Simulation Scenario 1) represents conditions in an undeveloped watershed. This scenario demonstrates that the strategic placement of a hypothetical road crossing within a watershed could be used to avoid exceeding water-quality standards of TP and SSC, but that no location choice results in meeting TCu standards. Implementation of BMP had the most pronounced effects on downstream water-quality constituent EMCs at road crossings with the highest ratio of highway catchment area to upstream drainage area, but the largest effect of BMP treatment on mean annual load is based on highway catchment area alone. • Simulation Scenario 2—Current Conditions (hereafter Simulation Scenario 2) represents current watershed conditions, where all developed area upstream from the road crossing was modeled as a highway and combined with the undeveloped part of the upstream drainage area (scenario 2A) and where the output from scenario 2A is used for the upstream area (developed area and the undeveloped area), and where the road crossing is added as usual (scenario 2B). Scenario 2 results indicate that attaining water-quality standards is more difficult with upstream developed areas. Specific road-crossing sites can be selected to achieve the fewest water-quality exceedances per year, but water-quality targets are not met without BMP implementation, and in some instances are not achievable even with BMP implementation. Results from this scenario also serve to quantify the upper limit of constituent reduction if funding were available to implement BMPs to large areas of development, and to quantify how much area would need BMP implementation to achieve water-quality targets. • Simulation Scenario 3—Alternative Road Layouts (hereafter Simulation Scenario 3) was designed to assess the sensitivity of SELDM to various road layouts. In this scenario, different highway configurations were superimposed at one road crossing. Results indicate that downstream waterquality constituent EMCs did not exhibit much variation, but annual water-quality constituent loads varied considerably. • Simulation Scenario 4—Varying Road Width (hereafter Simulation Scenario 4) was designed to assess the sensitivity of SELDM to road width. Similar to scenario 3, the results indicate little variation in downstream water-quality constituent EMCs, but annual water-quality constituent loads increased in proportion to road width. • Simulation scenario 5—Changes to Impervious Area (hereafter Simulation Scenario 5) was designed to investigate the effects of changing amounts of imperviousness upstream from the road crossing. Results indicate that the downstream water-quality constituent EMCs are highly correlated with the percentage of impervious area upstream.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Characterization of stormwater runoff from bridge decks in eastern Massachusetts, 2014–16

The quality of stormwater runoff from bridge decks (hereafter referred to as “bridge-deck runoff”) was characterized in a field study from August 2014 through August 2016 in which concentrations of suspended sediment (SS) and total nutrients were monitored. These new data were collected to supplement existing highway-runoff data collected in Massachusetts which were deficient in bridge-deck runoff concentration data. Monitoring stations were installed at three bridges maintained by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation in eastern Massachusetts (State Route 2A in the city of Boston, Interstate 90 in the town of Weston, and State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village in the city of Worcester). The bridges had annual average daily traffic volumes from 21,200 to 124,000 vehicles per day; the land use surrounding the monitoring stations was 25 to 67 percent impervious. Automatic-monitoring techniques were used to collect more than 160 flow-proportional composite samples of bridge-deck runoff. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of SS, loss on ignition of suspended solids (LOI), particulate carbon (PC), total phosphorus (TP), total dissolved nitrogen (DN), and particulate nitrogen (PN). The distribution of particle size of SS also was determined for composite samples. Samples of bridge-deck runoff were collected year round during rain, mixed precipitation, and snowmelt runoff and with different dry antecedent periods throughout the 2-year sampling period. At the three bridge-deck-monitoring stations, median concentrations of SS in composite samples of bridge-deck runoff ranged from 1,490 to 2,020 milligrams per liter (mg/L); however, the range of SS in individual composites was vast at 44 to 142,000 mg/L. Median concentrations of SS were similar in composite samples collected from the State Route 2A and Interstate 90 bridge (2,010 and 2,020 mg/L, respectively), and lowest at the State Route 20 bridge (1,490 mg/L). Concentrations of coarse sediment (greater than 0.25 millimeters in diameter) dominated the SS matrix by more than an order of magnitude. Concentrations of LOI and PC in composite samples ranged from 15 to 1,740 mg/L and 6.68 to 1,360 mg/L, respectively, and generally represented less than 10 and 3 percent of the median mass of SS, respectively. Concentrations of TP in composite samples ranged from 0.09 to 7.02 mg/L; median concentrations of TP ranged from 0.505 to 0.69 mg/L and were highest on the bridge on State Route 2A in Boston. Concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) (sum DN and PN) in composite samples were variable (0.36 to 29 mg/L). Median DN (0.64 to 0.90 mg/L) concentrations generally represented about 40 percent of the TN concentration at each bridge and were similar to annual volume-weighted mean concentrations of nitrogen in precipitation in Massachusetts. Nonparametric statistical methods were used to test for differences between sample constituent concentrations among the three bridges. These results indicated that there are no statistically significant differences for concentrations of SS, LOI, PC, and TP among the three bridges (one-way analysis of variance test on rank-transformed data, 95-percent confidence level). Test results for concentrations of TN in composite samples indicated that concentrations of TN collected on State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village were significantly higher than those concentrations collected on State Route 2A in Boston and Interstate 90 near Weston. Median concentrations of TN were about 93 and 55 percent lower at State Route 2A and at Interstate 90, respectively, compared to the median concentrations of TN at State Route 20. Samples of sediment were collected from five fixed locations on each bridge on three occasions during dry weather to calculate semiquantitative distributions of sediment yields on the bridge surface relative to the monitoring location. Mean yields of bridge-deck sediment during this study for State Route 2A in Boston, Interstate 90 near Weston, and State Route 20 near Quinsigamond Village were 1,500, 250, and 5,700 pounds per curb-mile, respectively. Sediment yields at each sampling location varied widely (26 to 25,000 pounds per curb-mile) but were similar to yields reported elsewhere in Massachusetts and the United States. Yields calculated for each sampling location indicated that the sediment was not evenly distributed across each bridge in this study for plausible reasons such as bridge slope, vehicular tracking, and bridge deterioration. Bridge-deck sediment quality was largely affected by the distribution of sediment particle size. Concentrations of TP in the fine sediment-size fraction (less than 0.0625 millimeter in diameter) of samples of bridge-deck sediment were about 6 times greater than in the coarse size fraction. Concentrations for many total-recoverable metals were 2 to 17 times greater in the fine size fraction compared to concentrations in the coarse size fraction (greater than or equal to 0.25 millimeter in diameter), and concentrations of total-recoverable copper and lead in the fine size fraction were 2 to 65 times higher compared to concentrations in the intermediate (greater than or equal to 0.0625 to 0.25 millimeter in diameter) or the coarse size fraction. However, the proportion of sediment particles less than 0.0625 millimeter in diameter in composite samples of bridge-deck runoff was small (median values range from 4 to 8 percent at each bridge) compared to the larger sediment particle-size mass. As a result, more than 50 percent of the sediment-associated TP, aluminum, chromium, manganese, and nickel was estimated to be associated with the coarse size fraction of the SS load. In contrast, about 95 percent of the estimated sediment-associated copper concentration was associated with the fine size fraction of the SS load. Version 1.0.2 of the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model was used to simulate long-term (29–30-year) concentrations and annual yields of SS, TP, and TN in bridge-deck runoff and in discharges from a hypothetical stormwater treatment best-management practice structure. Three methods (traditional statistics, robust statistics, and L-moments) were used to calculate statistics for stochastic simulations because the high variability in measured concentration values during the field study resulted in extreme simulated concentrations. Statistics of each dataset, including the average, standard deviation, and skew of the common (base 10) logarithms, for each of the three bridges, and for a lumped dataset, were calculated and used for simulations; statistics representing the median of statistics calculated for the three bridges also were used for simulations. These median statistics were selected for the interpretive simulations so that the simulations could be used to estimate concentrations and yields from other, unmonitored bridges in Massachusetts. Comparisons of the standard and robust statistics indicated that simulation results with either method would be similar, which indicated that the large variability in simulated results was not caused by a few outliers. Comparison to statistics calculated by the L-moments methods indicated that L-moments do not produce extreme concentrations; however, they also do not produce results that represent the bulk of concentration data. The runoff-quality risk analysis indicated that bridge-deck runoff would exceed discharge standards commonly used for large, advanced wastewater treatment plants, but that commonly used stormwater best-management practices may reduce the percentage of exceedances by one-half. Results of simulations indicated that long-term average yields of TN, TP, and SS may be about 21.4, 6.44, and 40,600 pounds per acre per year, respectively. These yields are about 1.3, 3.4, and 16 times simulated ultra-urban highway yields in Massachusetts; however, simulations indicated that use of a best-management practice structure to treat bridge-deck runoff may reduce discharge yields to about 10, 2.8, and 4,300, pounds per acre per year, respectively.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2004

Differential parasitism of seed-feeding Cydia (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) by native and alien wasp species relative to elevation in subalpine Sophora (Fabaceae) forests on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

Alien parasitic wasps, including accidental introductions and purposefully released biological control agents, have been implicated in the decline of native Hawaiian Lepidoptera. Understanding the potential impacts of alien wasps requires knowledge of ecological parameters that influence parasitism rates for species in their new environment. Sophora seed-feeding Cydia spp. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) were surveyed for larval parasitoids to determine how native and alien wasps are partitioned over an elevation gradient (2200-2800 m) on Hawaii Island, Hawaii. Parasitism rate of native Euderus metallicus (Eulophidae) increased with increased elevation, while parasitism rate by immigrant Calliephialtes grapholithae (Ichneumonidae) decreased. Parasitism by Pristomerus hawaiiensis (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, also decreased with increased elevation. Two other species, Diadegma blackburni (Ichneumonidae), origins uncertain, and Brasema cushmani (Eupelmidae), a purposefully introduced biological control agent for pepper weevil, did not vary significantly with elevation. Results are contrasted with a previous study of this system with implications for the conservation of an endangered bird species that feed on Cydia larvae. Interpretation of results is hindered by lack of knowledge of autecology of moths and wasps, origins, phylogeny, systematics, competitive ability, and physiological limitations of each wasp species. These factors should be incorporated into risk analysis for biological control introductions and invasive species programs. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Journal of Insect Conservation↗

USGS1991

A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

Computers & Geosciences↗

USGS2021

Elemental and radionuclide exposures and uptakes by small rodents, invertebrates, and vegetation at active and post-production uranium mines in the Grand Canyon watershed

The effects of breccia pipe uranium mining in the Grand Canyon watershed (Arizona) on ecological and cultural resources are largely unknown. We characterized the exposure of biota to uranium and co-occurring ore body elements during active ore production and at a site where ore production had recently concluded. Our results indicate that biota have taken up uranium and other elements (e.g., arsenic, cadmium, copper, molybdenum, uranium) from exposure to ore and surficial contamination, like blowing dust. Results indicate the potential for prolonged exposure to elements and radionuclides upon conclusion of active ore production. Mean radium-226 in deer mice was up to 4 times greater than uranium-234 and uranium-238 in those same samples; this may indicate a potential for, but does not necessarily imply, radium-226 toxicity. Soil screening benchmarks for uranium and molybdenum and other toxicity thresholds for arsenic, copper, selenium, uranium (e.g., growth effects) were exceeded in vegetation, invertebrates, and rodents ( Peromyscus spp. , Thomomys bottae, Tamias dorsalis, Dipodomys deserti ). However, the prevalence and severity of microscopic lesions in rodent tissues (as direct evidence of biological effects of uptake and exposure) could not be definitively linked to mining. Our data indicate that land managers might consider factors like species, seasonal changes in environmental concentrations, and bioavailability, when determining mine permitting and remediation in the Grand Canyon watershed. Ultimately, our results will be useful for site-specific ecological risk analysis and can support future decisions regarding the mineral extraction withdrawal in the Grand Canyon watershed and elsewhere.

Arizona↗

USGS2021

Groundwater quality of aquifers overlying the Oxnard Oil Field, Ventura County, California

Groundwater samples collected from irrigation, monitoring, and municipal supply wells near the Oxnard Oil Field were analyzed for chemical and isotopic tracers to evaluate if thermogenic gas or water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations have mixed with surrounding groundwater. New and historical data show no evidence of water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations in groundwater overlying the field. However, thermogenic gas mixed with microbial methane was detected in 5 wells at concentrations ranging from 0.011–9.1 mg/L. The presence of these gases at concentrations <10 mg/L do not indicate degraded water quality posing a known health risk. Analysis of carbon isotopes (δ 13 C-CH 4 ) and hydrogen isotopes (δ 2 H-CH 4 ) of methane and ratios of methane to heavier hydrocarbon gases were used to differentiate sources of methane between a) microbial, b) thermogenic or c) mixed sources. Results indicate that microbial-sourced methane is widespread in the study area, and concentrations overlap with those from thermogenic sources. The highest concentrations of thermogenic gas were observed in proximity to relatively high density of oil wells, large injection volumes of water disposal and cyclic steam, shallow oil development, and hydrocarbon shows in sediments overlying the producing oil reservoirs. Depths of water wells containing thermogenic gas were within approximately 200 m of the top of the Vaca Tar Sand production zone (approximately 600 m below land surface). Due to the limited sampling density, the source and pathways of thermogenic gas detected in groundwater could not be conclusively determined. Thermogenic gas detected in the absence of co-occurring water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations may result from natural gas migration over geologic time from the Vaca Tar Sand or deeper formations, hydrocarbon shows in sediments overlying producing zones, and/or gas leaking from oil-field infrastructure. Denser sampling of groundwater, potential end-members, and pressure monitoring could help better distinguish pathways of thermogenic gases.

California↗

USGS2003

Data-based comparisons of moments estimators using historical and paleoflood data

This paper presents the first systematic comparison, using historical and paleoflood data, of moments-based flood frequency methods. Peak flow estimates were compiled from streamflow-gaging stations with historical and/or paleoflood data at 36 sites located in the United States, Argentina, United Kingdom and China, covering a diverse range of hydrologic conditions. The Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) and the Bulletin 17B historical weighting procedure (B17H) were compared in terms of goodness of fit using 25 of the data sets. Results from this comparison indicate that EMA is a viable alternative to current B17H procedures from an operational perspective, and performed equal to or better than B17H for the data analyzed. We demonstrate satisfactory EMA performance for the remaining 11 sites with multiple thresholds and binomial censoring, which B17H cannot accommodate. It is shown that the EMA estimator readily incorporates these types of information and the LP-III distribution provided an adequate fit to the data in most cases. The results shown here are consistent with Monte Carlo simulation studies, and demonstrate that EMA is preferred overall to B17H. The Bulletin 17B document could be revised to include an option for EMA as an alternative to the existing historical weighting approach. These results are of practical relevance to hydrologists and water resources managers for applications in floodplain management, design of hydraulic structures, and risk analysis for dams. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2006

Modeling the influence of river rehabilitation scenarios on bed material sediment flux in a large river over decadal timescales

A stochastic flood generator and calibrated sediment transport formulae were used to assess the decadal impact of major river rehabilitation strategies on two fraction bed material sediment flux and net storage, first‐order indicators of aquatic riverine habitat, in a large river system. Model boundary conditions were modified to reflect the implementation of three major river rehabilitation strategies being considered in the Sacramento River Valley: gravel augmentation, setting back of levees, and flow alteration. Fifty 30‐year model simulations were used to compute probabilities of the response in sediment flux and net storage to these strategies. Total annual average bed material sediment flux estimates were made at six gauged river cross sections, and ∼60 km reach‐scale sediment budgets were evaluated between them. Gravel augmentation to improve spawning habitat induced gravel accumulation locally and/or downstream, depending on the added mixture. Levee setbacks to recreate the river corridor reduced flow stages for most flows and hence lowered sediment flux. Flow alteration to mimic natural flow regimes systematically decreased total annual average flux, suggesting that high‐magnitude low‐frequency transport events do not affect long‐term trends in bed material flux. The results indicate that each rehabilitation strategy reduces sediment transport in its target reaches and modulates imbalances in total annual bed material sediment budgets at the reach scale. Additional risk analysis is necessary to identify extreme conditions associated with variable hydrology that could affect rehabilitation over decades. Sensitivity analysis suggests that sorting of bed material sediment is the most important determinant of modeled transport and storage patterns.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2023

Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning

Understanding uncertainties in extreme wind-wave events is essential for offshore/coastal risk and adaptation estimates. Despite this, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events have not been assessed, and projections are still limited. Here, we quantify, at global scale, the uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave estimates across an ensemble of widely used global wave reanalyses/hindcasts supported by observations. We find that contemporary uncertainties in 50-year return period wave heights ( H s 50 "> H 50 s 50 ) reach (on average) ~2.5 m in regions adjacent to coastlines and are primarily driven by atmospheric forcing. Furthermore, we show that uncertainties in contemporary H s 50 "> H 50 s 50 estimates dominate projected 21st-century changes in H s 50 "> H 50 s 50 across ~80% of global ocean and coastlines. When translated into broad-scale coastal risk analysis, these uncertainties are comparable to those from storm surges and projected sea level rise. Thus, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events need to be combined with those of projections to fully assess potential impacts.

Science Advances↗

USGS2021

Behavioral responses of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) and white sucker (Catostomus commersonii) to turbulent flow during fishway passage attempts

An understanding of how undesirable and desirable fish species respond behaviorally to turbulent flow in fishways would guide development of selective fish passage techniques. We applied high-resolution computational fluid dynamics modeling and competing risks analysis towards the development of predictive selective passage models. Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ; an invasive fish in the Great Lakes Basin, North America) upstream passage probability declined from 0.73 to 0.03 as flow conditions became increasingly turbulent, while declines in white sucker ( Catostomus commersonii , a native fish in the region) upstream passage probability were less substantial (0.53 to 0.44). Deploying a sea lamprey trap in the fishway did not effectively reduce sea lamprey upstream passage probability, though capture rate increased during trials with cooler water temperature and low total kinetic energy. Bifurcated fishways that maintain low turbulent flow in the entrapment route and high turbulent flow in the upstream passage route could increase the effectiveness of trapping sea lamprey in fishways as a means to advance selective passage goals.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2015

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake ( Thamnophis gigas ) in the Sacramento Valley, California

Giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) comprise a species of semi-aquatic snakes precinctive to marshes in the Central Valley of California (Hansen and Brode, 1980; Rossman and others, 1996). Because more than 90 percent of their historical wetland habitat has been converted to other uses (Frayer and others, 1989; Garone, 2007), giant gartersnakes have been listed as threatened by the State of California (California Department of Fish and Game Commission , 1971) and the United States (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1993). Giant gartersnakes currently occur in a highly modified landscape, with most extant populations occurring in the rice - growing regions of the Sacramento Valley, especially near areas that historically were tule marsh habitat (Halstead and others, 2010, 2014). In ricelands and managed marshes, many operational decisions likely affect the health and viability of giant gartersnake populations. Land-use decisions, including the management of water, aquatic vegetation, terrestrial vegetation, and co-occurring species, have the potential to affect giant gartersnakes. Little is known, however, about the effects of these types of decisions on the viability of giant gartersnake populations. Bayesian network models are a useful tool to help guide decisions with uncertain outcomes. These models require the articulation of what experts think they know about a system, and facilitate learning about the hypothesized relations (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

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