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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Northwest Forest Plan — The first 25 years (1994–2018): Watershed condition status and trends

This report describes status and trends in watershed condition across the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area over the first 25 years since its inception in 1994. The program charged with this task is the Aquatic and Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program (AREMP), which has assembled information from field data collection, spatial datasets, and a host of landscape models to evaluate the status and trends in aquatic resources in streams and watersheds. Field data included hydrologic measurements (stream wetted widths and temperatures), geomorphic responses (instream wood and sediment), and biological responses (macroinvertebrates and aquatic organism passage). Novel statistical models were used to estimate trends in these measured responses. A suite of complementary modeled results was also employed to describe hydrometeorological drivers (e.g., drought indices and stream discharge), forest cover (upslope and riparian vegetation), and geomorphic conditions (e.g., road-related estimates of chronic and shallow landslide sediment delivery risk). Collectively, information on these responses allowed us to rigorously evaluate instream responses and hypothesize watershed drivers of those responses across the NWFP area and over time. The majority of responses we observed indicated widespread and incremental improvements from active management of forests, forest roads, and road-stream crossings as envisioned by the aquatic conservation strategy of the NWFP. Additionally, many of the responses we observed were consistent with those expected under the influences of changing climates in the Pacific Northwest. Ultimately, the long-term, broad-scale information provided by AREMP is a critical foundation for evaluating the effectiveness of federal land management and the effects of changing climates on water resources that sustain the Pacific Northwest’s human and natural landscapes.

California, Oregon, Washington

An evaluation of restoration efforts in fishless lakes stocked with exotic trout

Detrimental effects of introduced fishes on native amphibian populations have prompted removal of introduced cutthroat (Oncorhynchus clarki), rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from naturally fishless lakes at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington (U.S.A.). Using paleolimnological indicators (diatoms, invertebrates, and sediment characteristics) in eight 480-year-old sediment cores from eight lakes, we (1) derived estimates of baseline environmental conditions and natural variation, (2) assessed the effects of stocking naturally fishless lakes, and (3) determined whether lakes returned to predisturbance conditions after fish removal (restoration). Diatom floras were relatively stable between 315 and 90 years before present in all lakes; we used this time period to define lake-specific "baseline" conditions. Dissimilarity analyses of diatoms revealed sustained, dramatic changes in diatom floras that occurred approximately 80 years ago (when fish were introduced) in four of five stocked lakes, whereas the diatom floras in two unstocked lakes had not changed significantly in the last 315 years. Diatoms were not preserved in an eighth lake. State changes also occurred in two lakes over 200 years before European settlement of the Pacific Northwest. Preserved invertebrate densities fluctuated dramatically over time in all cores, providing a poor reference for assessing the effects of fishes. Nevertheless, fish-invertebrate interactions have been demonstrated in other paleolimnological studies and may be useful for lower-elevation or more productive lakes. Because diatom communities have not returned to predisturbance assemblages in restored lakes, even 20-30 years after fish removal, we conclude that Mt. Rainier lakes were not successfully restored by the removal of fishes.

Conservation Biology

New faunal records from a World Heritage Site in danger: Rennell Island, Solomon Islands

Remote oceanic islands have high potential to harbor unique fauna and flora, but opportunities to conduct in-depth biotic surveys are often limited. Furthermore, underrepresentation of existing biodiversity in the literature has the potential to detract from conservation planning and action. Between 18 and 29 October 2018, we surveyed the terrestrial vertebrates of East Rennell, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Solomon Islands. We documented 56 species, including 15 squamates, 13 mammals, and 38 birds, and present four new vertebrate records for the island: Stephan's emerald dove ( Chalcophaps stephani ), Maluku myotis ( Myotis moluccarum ), littoral skink ( Emoia atrocostata ) and brahminy blindsnake ( Indotyphlops braminus ). East Rennell was designated a World Heritage site for its significant on-going ecological and biological processes, and importance for the study of island biogeography. The new records presented here provide evidence that continued field studies combined with DNA analysis will continue to uncover even greater endemic biodiversity. Rennell is currently experiencing major habitat destruction in parts of the island that are not under World Heritage protection, and we anticipate collateral damage will likely extend into protected areas. Our survey also underscores the incredible vertebrate biodiversity that stands to be lost unless conservation actions and local community needs are intertwined to promote beneficial outcomes on both fronts.

Pacific Science

Quantification of the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem

An important issue in biodiversity valuation is gaining a better understanding of how biodiversity conservation affects economic activities and human welfare. Quantifying the economic benefits of biodiversity for human well-being is not straightforward. Here, we expand the ecosystem service cascade by (i) attributing a methodology to the different steps of the cascade to assess the effects of changes in functional group diversity on economic activities; (ii) including multiple attributes for defining functional diversity and (iii) integrating a dynamic ecological model simulating complex interactions and feedbacks between species with an economic model assessing the effects of changes in functional group diversity for gross revenues. The stepwise methodological framework integrates a production function approach with a market price-based approach in order to investigate the indirect use value of functional group diversity based on the ecological role of species in the ecosystem. The methodology is applied to estimate the relationship between the gross economic value of Chinook salmon (Pacific Northwest, United States) and the diversity of freshwater macroinvertebrates. The results of our analysis emphasize the importance of biological diversity for sustaining ecosystem goods and services. The analysis provides a tractable framework for quantitatively exploring the economic consequences of changes in functional group diversity.

Ecological Economics

Distribution, abundance, and migration timing of Greater and Lesser Sandhill Cranes wintering in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta region of California

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta region of California (hereafter, Delta region) is an important wintering region for the Central Valley Population of greater sandhill cranes ( Grus canadensis tabida ) and lesser sandhill cranes ( G. c. canadensis ), but basic information about the ecology of these birds is lacking to design a biologically sound conservation strategy. During the winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, we conducted roost counts, roadside surveys, aerial surveys, and tracked radio-marked birds to define the geographic area used by sandhill cranes in the Delta region, document migration chronology, and estimate subspecies-specific abundance. Radio-marked sandhill cranes arrived in our study area beginning 3 October, most arrived in mid-October, and the last radio-marked sandhill crane arrived on 10 December. Departure dates ranged from 15 January to 13 March. Mean arrival and departure dates were similar between subspecies. From mid-December through early-February in 2007-2008, the Delta population ranged from 20,000 to 27,000 sandhill cranes. Abundance varied at the main roost sites during winter because sandhill cranes responded to changes in water conditions. Sandhill cranes used an area of approximately 1,500 km 2 for foraging. Estimated peak abundance in the Delta region was more than half the total number counted on recent Pacific Flyway midwinter surveys, indicating the Delta region is a key area for efforts in conservation and recovery of wintering sandhill cranes in California. Based on arrival dates, flooding of sandhill crane roost sites should be staggered with some sites flooded in early September and most sites flooded by early October. Maintained flooding through mid-March would provide essential roosting habitat until most birds have departed the Delta region on spring migration.

California

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet Endangered status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Biological Conservation

Population differentiation in Pacific salmon: local adaptation, genetic drift, or the environment?

Morphological, behavioral, and life-history differences between Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations are commonly thought to reflect local adaptation, and it is likewise common to assume that salmon populations separated by small distances are locally adapted. Two alternatives to local adaptation exist: random genetic differentiation owing to genetic drift and founder events, and genetic homogeneity among populations, in which differences reflect differential trait expression in differing environments. Population genetics theory and simulations suggest that both alternatives are possible. With selectively neutral alleles, genetic drift can result in random differentiation despite many strays per generation. Even weak selection can prevent genetic drift in stable populations; however, founder effects can result in random differentiation despite selective pressures. Overlapping generations reduce the potential for random differentiation. Genetic homogeneity can occur despite differences in selective regimes when straying rates are high. In sum, localized differences in selection should not always result in local adaptation. Local adaptation is favored when population sizes are large and stable, selection is consistent over large areas, selective diffeentials are large, and straying rates are neither too high nor too low. Consideration of alternatives to local adaptation would improve both biological research and salmon conservation efforts.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Newly emergent and future threats of alien species to Pacific birds and ecosystems

Although the devastating effects of established alien species to Pacific birds and ecosystems are generally well recognized by the avian conservation community, we raise the under appreciated issue of effects of incipient and future invasions. Although special attention to Pacific bird species “on the brink” is to a certain extent appropriate and necessary, a comparable focus on stopping new invasions appears desperately needed. All indications suggest that introductions will escalate with the trend toward ever increasing commerce and unrestricted trade unless stronger preventative measures are implemented very soon. The threat to Pacific island avifaunas from the brown tree snake ( Bniga irregularis ) is well-known, but as many as several hundred of the world’s snake species, some of which are repeatedly smuggled illegally as pets, might have similar impacts on native birds if transported to Pacific islands. We touch upon a sampling of obviously severe potential future threats, with the hope of raising awareness and resolve to fix the current woefully inadequate system for prevention of and rapid response to new invasions.

Studies in Avian Biology

Establishing genome sizes of focal fishery and aquaculture species along Baja California, Mexico

Genome size—the total haploid content of nuclear DNA— is constant in all cells in individuals within a species, but differs among species. Consequently, the genome size is a quantifiable genetic signature that not only characterizes a species, but it can reflect chromatin modifications, which play fundamental roles in most biological processes that are involved in the manipulation and expression of DNA. This characteristic makes the genome size a crucial parameter for genetic research on endemic aquatic species and for genetic manipulations in aquaculture species. Technologies for genetic assessments and improvements applied to fishery and aquaculture species use genome size values as a means by which hybrids, polyploids, and sex can be identified, when sex chromosomes exist. The objectives of this study were to determine genome sizes of aquatic species with economic and biological importance along the Pacific coast of Mexico, as well as to identify the appropriate reference standards for use in this study. Blood, hemolymph or milt were collected from 10 species occurring along the coast of Baja California: Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria , Black Snapper Lutjanus novemfasciatus , California Halibut Paralichthys californicus , Pacific Sardine Sardinops sagax , Flag Rockfish Sebastes rubrivinctus , Starry Rockfish Sebastes constellatus, Totoaba Totoaba macdonaldi , Whiteleg Shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei and two Yellowtail Seriola lalandi and S. dorsalis . Nuclear DNA was stained with propidium iodide solution and the genome size was determined by flow cytometry, with results ranging from 0.61 pg (1.22 pg/diploid cell) to 2.59 pg (5.18 pg/diploid cell), with the smallest value in Sablefish and the largest in the Whiteleg Shrimp. No significant differences were detected ( P ≤ 0.05) among individuals of the same species; the likely reason behind any dissimilar DNA content values with those from the literature were differences in methodologies or variations in genetics. Red-ear Slider Turtle Trachemys scripta elegans 2.65 pg (5.30 pg/diploid cell) and Red Junglefowl Gallus gallus 1.27 pg (2.54 pg/diploid cell) were chosen as the standards for reference values. These results establish the basis for the Mexican National Aquatic Genetic Resources project supporting genetic improvements for aquaculture and conservation status parameters for fisheries species.

Baja California

Lessons from the past: isotopes of an endangered rail as indicators of underlying change to tidal marsh habitats

Introduction: Tidal marsh systems along the Pacific coast of the United States have experienced substantial stress and loss of area and ecosystem function, which we examined by using the endangered California Ridgway’s Rail, Rallus obsoletus obsoletus (‘rail’) as an indicator of its tidal marsh habitat in the San Francisco Estuary. We organized a collection of historical (1885-1940) and modern (2005-2014) rail feathers and analyzed the feather isotope means for delta carbon (δ 13 C), sulfur (δ 34 S), and nitrogen (δ 15 N) by region and time period. Outcomes: Feather isotopes represented the primary foraging habitat during historical then modern time periods. Neither individual nor regional rail feather isotopes suggested freshwater or terrestrial foraging by the rail. Three regions with both historic and modern feather isotopes revealed non-uniform spatial shifts in isotope levels consistent with a marine based food web and significant δ 15 N enrichment. Discussion: Our results supported the rail’s status as a generalist forager and obligate tidal marsh species throughout the historic record. The variable isoscape trends generated from feather isotope means illustrated a modern loss of the isotopic homogeneity between regions of historical tidal marsh, which correlated with spatially-explicit habitat alterations such as increasing biological invasions and sewage effluent over time. Conclusion: These findings have reinforced the importance of tidal marsh conservation in the face of ongoing underlying changes to these important ecosystems.

California

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii’s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii

Anticoagulant rodenticides in Strix owls indicate widespread exposure in west coast forests

Exposure of nontarget wildlife to anticoagulant rodenticides (AR) is a global conservation concern typically centered around urban or agricultural areas. Recently, however, the illegal use of ARs in remote forests of California, USA, has exposed sensitive predators, including the federally threatened northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ). We used congeneric barred owls ( S. varia ) as a sentinel species to investigate whether ARs pose a threat to spotted owls and other old-forest wildlife in northern regions of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed the liver tissue from 40 barred owls collected in Oregon and Washington and confirmed exposure to ≥1 AR compounds in 48% of the owls examined. Brodifacoum, an extremely toxic second-generation AR, was the most common compound detected (89% of positive cases), followed by bromadiolone (11%), difethialone (11%), and warfarin (5%). Brodifacoum was also detected in one barred owl and one spotted owl opportunistically found dead (liver concentrations were 0.091 and 0.049 µg/g, respectively). We found no evidence that exposure varied with proximity to developed and agricultural areas, or among different study areas, age-classes, and sexes. Rather, exposure was ubiquitous, and the rates we observed in our study (38 – 64%) were similar to or greater than that reported previously for barred owls in California (40%). Together these studies indicate widespread contamination in forested landscapes used by spotted owls and other wildlife of conservation concern. Owls collected in older forests may have been exposed via illegal use of ARs, highlighting a mounting challenge for land managers and policy makers.

California

Unusual subterranean aggregations of the California Giant Salamander, Dicamptodon ensatus

Larval Dicamptodon are one of the most abundant vertebrates in headwater streams in the Pacific Northwest. Their numbers and biomass can exceed those of all other amphibians, and of salmonid fishes. By contrast, metamorphosed Dicamptodon are only found infrequently, usually during formal surveys using pitfall traps, cover boards, or time constrained surveys However, we found two aggregations (23 and 27 individuals) of metamorphosed Dicamptodon ensatus during a culvert removal project at Point Reyes National Seashore, California. Furthermore, we found an additional 23 terrestrial D. ensatus in terrestrial habitat adjacent to the culverts. We did not expect these aggregations because metamorphosed individuals are so rarely encountered, and aggregations are likely to increase competition and predation in a species known to feed regularly on vertebrate prey. Deteriorating culverts might provide an unusually high-quality habitat that leads to aggregations such as we describe. Our observations may provide insight into the natural haunts of D. ensatus—underground burrows or caverns—and if so, then aggregations may be normal, but rarely seen.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

California

Functional and geographic components of risk for climate sensitive vertebrates in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Rarity and life history traits inform multiple dimensions of intrinsic risk to climate and environmental change and can help systematically identify at-risk species. We quantified relative geographic rarity (area of occupancy), climate niche breadth, and life history traits for 114 freshwater fishes, amphibians, and reptiles in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our approach leveraged presence-only, publicly available data and traits-based inference to evaluate area of occupancy, climate sensitivity (i.e., climate niche breadth), and a Rarity and Climate Sensitivity (RCS) index of all species across multiple geographic extents, grain sizes, and data types. The RCS index was relatively stable across extents, grains, and data types, with climate sensitivity differentiating species with otherwise similar areas of occupancy. We also found that species with sensitivity-associated traits (e.g., long generation time, low fecundity) were not necessarily the same species identified as at-risk with geographical approaches (small range size, small climate niche breadth). Many multispecies assessments using coarse-scale data (e.g., entire range maps or convex-hull approaches) often focus on a single dimension of intrinsic risk; others rely on data-intensive models only applicable to a few well-studied species. What remains is a need for an approach that enables multispecies, multidimensional assessment efforts. This is particularly true at regional scales, where management needs require assessments that are intermediate to coarse- and fine-scale approaches. We demonstrate that by considering multiple dimensions of intrinsic risk to climate change (range size, climate sensitivity, and traits), site-specific locality data may offer a pathway for ensuring vulnerable, understudied species do not go overlooked in conservation.

Pacific Northwest

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Polar Biology

Dry forest restoration and unassisted native tree seedling recruitment at Auwahi, Maui

Efforts to restore highly degraded but biologically significant forests draw from a limited toolbox. With less than 10% of their former distribution remaining, Hawaiian dry forests, though critically endangered, remain important biological and cultural refugia. At restoration onset (1997), vegetation of restoration and control areas of degraded Auwahi dry forest, Maui Island, was similar, dominated by nonnative graminoids (restoration 78.3%; control 75.4%), especially Cenchrus ( Pennisetum ) clandestinus . In 2012, unrestored control area vegetation was basically unchanged. In contrast, in the restoration area in 2012, native shrub cover increased from 3.1% to 81.9%, and cover of nonnative graminoids declined from 75.4% to 3.3%. In 2012, nonplanted seedlings of 14 of 22 native tree species and six of seven native shrub species were observed in restoration plots; the majority (99%) were five native ( Dodonaea viscosa, Coprosma foliosa, Osteomeles anthyllidifolia, Chamaesyce celastoides, Nestegis sandwicensis ) and one nonnative species ( Bocconia frutescens ). By 2012, stem counts of native woody plants had increased from 12.4 to 135.0/100 m 2 , and native species diversity increased from 2.4 to 6.6/100 m 2 . By 2012, seven rare dry forest tree species, Charpentiera obovata, Nothocestrum latifolium, Ochrosia haleakalae, Pleomele auwahiensis, Santalum ellipticum, S. haleakalae , and Streblus pendulinus , had established seedlings and/or saplings within the restoration site, especially notable because natural reproduction is largely lacking elsewhere. Without development and implementation of appropriate management strategies, remaining Hawaiian dry forest will likely disappear within the next century. Multicomponent restoration incorporating ungulate exclusion, weed control, and outplanting as described here offers one strategy to conserve and restore tracts of high-value but degraded forests.

Hawai'i

Evaluation of a method using survey counts and tag data to estimate the number of Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) using a coastal haulout in northwestern Alaska

Increased periods of sparse sea ice over the continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea in late summer have reduced offshore haulout habitat for Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) and increased opportunities for human activities in the region. Knowing how many walruses could be affected by human activities would be useful to conservation decisions. Currently, there are no adequate estimates of walrus abundance in the northeastern Chukchi Sea during summer–early autumn. Estimating abundance in autumn might be possible from coastal surveys of hauled out walruses during periods when offshore sea ice is unavailable to walruses. We evaluated methods to estimate the size of the walrus population that was using a haulout on the coast of northwestern Alaska in autumn by using aerial photography to count the number of hauled out walruses (herd size) and data from 37 tagged walruses to estimate availability (proportion of population hauled out). We used two methods to estimate availability, direct proportions of hauled out tagged walruses and smoothed proportions using local polynomial regression. Point estimates of herd size (4200–38,000 walruses) and total population size (76,000–287,000 walruses) ranged widely among days and between the two methods of estimating availability. Estimates of population size were influenced most by variation in estimates of availability. Coastal surveys might be improved most by counting walruses when the greatest numbers are hauled out, thereby reducing the influence of availability on population size estimates. The chance of collecting data during peak haulout periods would be improved by conducting multiple surveys.

Polar Biology