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Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment

Hydrogeology and water quality of five principal aquifers in the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District, eastern Nebraska, 1994

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District, conducted a hydrogeologic and water-quality reconnaissance study of the five principal aquifers in deposits of Quaternary age in the Natural Resources District. The purpose of the study was to delineate the approximate extent of the aquifers, to estimate volumes of drainable water in three aquifers, to provide information that could be useful in designing future ground-water-quality monitoring, and to determine baseline water-quality conditions in the aquifers, focusing on nitrate concentrations. The approximate lateral boundaries of the Dwight-Valparaiso, Crete-Princeton-Adams, and Waverly aquifers were defined as areas in which the thickness of continuous sand and gravel deposits was less than 40 feet. The three aquifers were determined to contain about 1,340,000; 1,540,000; and 172,000 acre-feet of drainable water, respectively, assuming a specific yield of 0.20. During the summer of 1994, ground-water samples were collected from 46 wells in the five aquifers and analyzed for nitrate and screened for triazine herbicides. Additionally, water samples from 39 of these wells were analyzed for major ions, iron, and manganese, and 35 were analyzed for radon. Water-quality analyses revealed that the water in the five aquifers had specific conductances that ranged from 399 to 2,040 micro-siemens per centimeter and was a calcium-carbonate to calcium-magnesium-sodium carbonate type. The most mineralized water samples were from the Crete-Princeton-Adams aquifer, which contained a median concentration of dissolved solids of 520 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of nitrate in water samples from the aquifers ranged from less than 0.05 to 23 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, and only six water samples exceeded the Maximum Contaminant Level established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency of 10 milligrams per liter. The median concentration of radon for water samples from the five aquifers was 300 picocuries per liter, which is the proposed Maximum Contaminant Level. Water samples from the Crete-Princeton-Adams and Waverly aquifers had the largest concentrations of radon among the five aquifers. The Crete-Princeton-Adams aquifer had a median concentration of 440 picocuries per liter, and the Waverly aquifer had a median concentration of 390 picocuries per liter. Herbicides were detected in water from only six wells, which were in four of the five aquifers. Atrazine, metabolites of atrazine, metolachlor, and metribuzin were detected in concentrations generally less than 1.00 microgram per liter.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Citizen science can improve conservation science, natural resource management, and environmental protection

Citizen science has advanced science for hundreds of years, contributed to many peer-reviewed articles, and informed land management decisions and policies across the United States. Over the last 10 years, citizen science has grown immensely in the United States and many other countries. Here, we show how citizen science is a powerful tool for tackling many of the challenges faced in the field of conservation biology. We describe the two interwoven paths by which citizen science can improve conservation efforts, natural resource management, and environmental protection. The first path includes building scientific knowledge, while the other path involves informing policy and encouraging public action. We explore how citizen science is currently used and describe the investments needed to create a citizen science program. We find that: Citizen science already contributes substantially to many domains of science, including conservation, natural resource, and environmental science. Citizen science informs natural resource management, environmental protection, and policymaking and fosters public input and engagement. Many types of projects can benefit from citizen science, but one must be careful to match the needs for science and public involvement with the right type of citizen science project and the right method of public participation. Citizen science is a rigorous process of scientific discovery, indistinguishable from conventional science apart from the participation of volunteers. When properly designed, carried out, and evaluated, citizen science can provide sound science, efficiently generate high-quality data, and help solve problems.

Biological Conservation

Defining geologic Hazards for natural resources management using tree-ring analysis

Landslides, avalanches, floods, and other geologic hazards impair natural resources management by jeopardizing public safety, damaging or restricting resource utilization, and necessitating expenditures for corrective measures The negative impact of geologic hazard events can be reduced by tailoring resources management to hazard potential of an area This requires assessment of where and how frequently the events occur National forests and other managed wildlands often lack monitoring or historical records to compute frequency of hazard occurrence Tree-ring analysis, based on internal growth response to external events such as tilting and abrasion, can provide frequency data Two examples of the use of tree-ring analysis to date landslide activity illustrate advantages and limitations of the technique An example from the Fishlake National Forest in central Utah illustrates assessment for planning purposes An example from the Sierra National Forest in east-central California shows assessment applied to project design Many geologic hazards in addition to landslides are suited to tree-ring analysis to establish frequency of occurrence Hazard reduction efforts in natural resources management could be enhanced by careful application of tree-ring analysis ?? 1984 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology and Water Sciences

Understanding ecosystem services adoption by natural resource managers and research ecologists

The ecosystem services (ES) paradigm has gained much traction as a natural resource management approach due to its comprehensive nature and ability to provide quantitative tools to improve decision-making. However, it is still uncertain whether and how practitioners have adopted the ES paradigm into their work and how this aligns with resource management information needs. To address this, we surveyed natural resource managers within the Great Lakes region about their use of ES information in decision-making. We complemented our manager survey with in-depth interviews of a related population—research ecologists at the U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center. In this study, managers and ecologists almost unanimously agreed that ES were appropriate to consider in resource management. We also found high congruence between managers and ecologists in the ES considered most relevant to their work, with provision of habitat, recreation and tourism, biological control, and primary production being the ES ranked highly by both groups. However, a disconnect arose when research ecologists deemed the information they provide regarding ES as adequate for management needs, but managers disagreed. Furthermore, managers reported that they would use economic information about ES if they had access to that information. We believe this data deficiency could represent a gap in scientific coverage by ecologists, but it may also simply reflect an underrepresentation of ecological economists who can translate ecological knowledge of ES providers into economic information that many managers desired.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

Report

Self-determination theory as an alternate conceptual foundation for motivation in natural resource research

Motivation is a topic that receives substantial interest across the social sciences. However, in the human dimensions of natural resource literature, scholars have primarily treated motivation as a construct narrowly defined by the individual’s desired goal state. In contrast, self-determination theory (SDT) suggests that multiple forms of motivation can influence levels of self-determination, integration of identities, and subsequent behavioral intentions, and has been utilized in multiple realms to understand human behavior. SDT forms a consistent and well-understood mechanism for human psychological development and optimal function and allows for the formulation of out-of-sample prediction, a cornerstone of science. In this manuscript, we review the basic theories that make up SDT and provide insight for its application to human dimensions of natural resource research.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Jou

Evidence and opportunities for integrating landscape ecology into natural resource planning across multiple-use landscapes

Enhancing natural resource management has been a focus of landscape ecology since its inception, but numerous authors argue that landscape ecology has not yet been effective in achieving the underlying goal of planning and designing sustainable landscapes. We developed nine questions reflecting the application of fundamental research topics in landscape ecology to the landscape planning process and reviewed two recent landscape-scale plans in western North America for evidence of these concepts in plan decisions. Both plans considered multiple resources, uses, and values, including energy development, recreation, conservation, and protection of cultural and historic resources. We found that land use change and multiscale perspectives of resource uses and values were very often apparent in planning decisions. Pattern-process relationships, connectivity and fragmentation, ecosystem services, landscape history, and climate change were reflected less frequently. Landscape sustainability was considered only once in the 295 decisions reviewed, and outputs of landscape models were not referenced. We suggest six actionable opportunities for further integrating landscape ecology concepts into landscape planning efforts: 1) use landscape sustainability as an overarching goal, 2) adopt a broad ecosystem services framework, 3) explore the role of landscape history more comprehensively, 4) regularly consider and accommodate potential effects of climate change, 5) use landscape models to support plan decisions, and 6) promote a greater presence of landscape ecologists within agencies that manage large land bases and encourage active involvement in agency planning efforts. Together these actions may improve the defensibility, durability, and sustainability of landscape plan decisions.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports

Reconnaissance of ground-water quality in the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, eastern Nebraska, July through September 1992

A reconnaissance of ground-water quality was conducted in the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District of eastern Nebraska. Sixty-one irrigation, municipal, domestic, and industrial wells completed in the principal aquifers--the unconfined Elkhorn, Missouri, and Platte River Valley alluvial aquifers, the upland area alluvial aquifers, and the Dakota aquifer--were selected for water-quality sampling during July, August, and September 1992. Analyses of water samples from the wells included determination of dissolved nitrate as nitrogen and triazine and acetanilide herbicides. Waterquality analyses of a subset of 42 water samples included dissolved solids, major ions, metals, trace elements, and radionuclides. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate as nitrogen in water samples from 2 of 13 wells completed in the upland area alluvial aquifers exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Level for drinking water of 10 milligrams per liter. Thirty-nine percent of the dissolved nitrate-as-nitrogen concentrations were less than the detection level of 0.05 milligram per liter. The largest median dissolved nitrate-as-nitrogen concentrations were in water from the upland area alluvial aquifers and the Dakota aquifer. Water from all principal aquifers, except the Dakota aquifer, had detectable concentrations of herbicides. Herbicides detected included alachlor (1 detection), atrazine (13 detections), cyanazine (5 detections), deisopropylatrazine (6 detections), deethylatrazine (9 detections), metolachlor (6 detections), metribuzin (1 detection), prometon (6 detections), and simazine (2 detections). Herbicide concentrations did not exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels for drinking water. In areas where the hydraulic gradient favors loss of surface water to ground water, the detection of herbicides in water from wells along the banks of the Platte River indicates that the river could act as a line source of herbicides. Water from the alluvial and bedrock aquifers generally was a calcium bicarbonate type and was hard. Two of nine water samples collected from the Dakota aquifer contained calcium sulfate type water. Results of analyses of 42 groundwater samples for major ions, metals, trace elements, and radionuclide constituents indicated that statistically at least one principal aquifer had significant differences in its water chemistry. In general, the water chemistry of the Dakota aquifer was similar to the water chemistry of the upland area alluvial aquifers in areas where there was a hydraulic connection. The water from the Dakota aquifer had large dissolved-solids, calcium, sulfate, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, and strontium concentrations in areas where the aquifer is thought not to be in hydraulic connection with the Missouri River Valley and upland area alluvial aquifers. Ground-water quality in the Papio-MissouriRiver Natural Resources District is generally suitable for most uses. However, the numerous occurrences of herbicides in water of the Elkhorn and Platte River Valley alluvial aquifers, especially near the Platte River, are of concern because U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels could be exceeded. Concentrations in three of nine water samples collected from wells completed in the Dakota aquifer exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels or Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels for gross alpha activity, radon-222 activity, dissolved solids, sulfate, or iron. Also of concern are the exceedances of the U.S Environmental Protection Agency proposed Maximum Contaminant Level for radon-222 activity.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

Investing in citizen science can improve natural resource management and environmental protection

Citizen science has made substantive contributions to science for hundreds of years. More recently, it has contributed to many articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals and has influenced natural resource management and environmental protection decisions and policies across the nation. Over the last 10 years, citizen science—participation by the public in a scientific project—has seen explosive growth in the United States, particularly in ecology, the environmental sciences, and related fields of inquiry. In this report, we explore the current use of citizen science in natural resource and environmental science and decision making in the United States and describe the investments organizations might make to benefit from citizen science.

Issues in Ecology

Anticipatory natural resource science and management for a changing future

Prolonged shifts in long‐term average climate conditions and increasing variability in short‐term weather conditions affect ecological processes, and represent a fundamental challenge for natural resource management. Recent and forthcoming advances in climate predictability may offer novel opportunities, but capitalizing on these opportunities will require focusing scientific research on understanding the links between climate and ecological responses over multiple timescales, fostering programmatic links among science and management agencies, and developing new and flexible decision‐making frameworks. Anticipating short‐ to near‐term climate conditions can help managers mitigate land degradation driven by unfavorable conditions and promote actions that make the most of favorable conditions. Similarly, anticipating long‐term, multidecadal climate trajectories can help managers to identify those species and communities that are most likely to remain viable throughout the 21st century. A focus on “anticipatory science and management” could substantially bolster natural resource planning and management but will require long‐term investment and widespread adoption.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Perspectives from natural resource professionals: Attitudes on lead ammunition risks and use of nonlead ammunition

Hunting is a popular activity but continued use of lead ammunition poses risks to wildlife and human health. To inform adoption of the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition, natural resource professionals were surveyed to understand their attitudes about threats to bald eagles, lead poisoning in bald eagles, human health risks from lead bullet fragments in venison, use of nonlead hunting ammunition, and socio-economic nonlead ammunition factors. Differences were examined by hunter status, ammunition type used, and intentions to use nonlead ammunition. Of participants surveyed, 61.0% were hunters and 39.0% nonhunters, with 59.5% of hunters using lead ammunition and 40.5% using nonlead. Concurrently, 68.5% of hunters reported likely intentions to continue using nonlead or convert to nonlead in the future, while 31.5% reported nonlead use was unlikely. Also, some hunters currently using nonlead ammunition indicated they would unlikely continue using nonlead (17.8%). Nonhunters agreed more strongly than hunters regarding general mortality threats to bald eagles. Additionally, nonhunters, hunters using nonlead, and likely nonlead users more strongly agreed about threats of lead exposure to eagles than their counterparts. Nonhunters and likely nonlead users also more strongly agreed than hunters and unlikely nonlead users about the human health risks of lead ammunition and about shooting characteristics of nonlead. Finally, nonhunters and nonlead users agreed more strongly than their counterparts about the socio-economic factors of using nonlead ammunition. Understanding natural resource professional hunters’ attitudes may help with audience segmentation when designing future nonlead outreach messages.

Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism

Water movement through the unsaturated zone of the High Plains Aquifer in the Central Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska, 2008-12

Uncertainty about the effects of land use and climate on water movement in the unsaturated zone and on groundwater recharge rates can lead to uncertainty in water budgets used for groundwater-flow models. To better understand these effects, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Central Platte Natural Resources District was initiated in 2007 to determine field-based estimates of recharge rates in selected land-use areas of the Central Platte Natural Resources District in Nebraska. Measured total water potential and unsaturated-zone profiles of tritium, chloride, nitrate as nitrogen, and bromide, along with groundwater-age dates, were used to evaluate water movement in the unsaturated zone and groundwater recharge rates in the central Platte River study area. Eight study sites represented an east-west precipitation contrast across the study area—four beneath groundwater-irrigated cropland (sites 2, 5, and 6 were irrigated corn and site 7 was irrigated alfalfa/corn rotation), three beneath rangeland (sites 1, 4, and 8), and one beneath nonirrigated cropland, or dryland (site 3). Measurements of transient vertical gradients in total water potential indicated that periodic wetting fronts reached greater mean maximum depths beneath the irrigated sites than beneath the rangeland sites, in part, because of the presence of greater and constant antecedent moisture. Beneath the rangeland sites, greater temporal variation in antecedent moisture and total water potential existed and was, in part, likely a result of local precipitation and evapotranspiration. Moreover, greater variability was noticed in the total water potential profiles beneath the western sites than the corresponding eastern sites, which was attributed to less mean annual precipitation in the west. The depth of the peak post-bomb tritium concentration or the interface between the pre-bomb/post-bomb tritium, along with a tritium mass balance, within sampled soil profiles were used to estimate water fluxes in the unsaturated zone at three of the eight study sites: site 2 (irrigated), site 3 (dryland), and site 8 (rangeland). Estimates for recharge were about 68 millimeters per year [(mm/yr), post-bomb peak], 133 to 159 mm/yr (tritium interface), and 137 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 2 (irrigated); about 63 mm/yr (tritium interface) and 12 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 3 (dryland); and about 53 mm/yr (tritium interface) and 10 mm/yr (mass balance) at site 8 (rangeland). Recharge values from the mass balance at site 2 were more than an order of magnitude greater than recharge values at site 3, suggesting irrigation is an important control on water movement through the unsaturated zone. For the remaining five sites, the post-bomb tritium had flushed through the system and recharge was considered modern (within 10 years of sampling). The chloride mass-balance method was used to determine water fluxes below the root zone (less than 2 meters below land surface) at the rangeland sites: sites 1, 4, and 8. At these rangeland sites, water fluxes ranged from 1.8 to 96 mm/yr at site 1, 1.1 to 9.6 mm/yr at site 4, and 1.1 to 68 mm/yr at site 8, with mean rates of 21, 4.3, and 13 mm/yr, respectively. Site 1 had a greater mean water flux, which was consistent with the greater precipitation in the east than at site 8 in the west. Chloride mass balance was not calculated at the irrigated and dryland sites because of uncertainty about additional sources of chloride. Concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in pore water in the unsaturated zone were larger beneath the irrigated and dryland (agricultural) sites compared with the rangeland sites. The larger concentrations at the agricultural sites are consistent with the application of nitrogen fertilizer at the agricultural sites and no substantial accumulation at the rangeland sites. The shape of the nitrate as nitrogen and chloride concentration profiles at site 1 (rangeland) indicate a reasonably larger and more consistent water flux in the UZ than beneath the other two rangeland sites (sites 4 or 8). Excluding site 7, the general shape of the nitrate as nitrogen profiles was similar beneath the agricultural sites and supports the estimates of water movement and recharge rates determined from the tritium and chloride methods. Movement of bromide through the unsaturated zone indicated greater water fluxes are found beneath irrigated lands than beneath rangeland. Bromide profiles in the unsaturated zone, determined from center of mass and peak displacement methods, document water fluxes ranged from 58 to 394 mm/yr beneath irrigated sites and 9 to 201 mm/yr beneath rangeland sites. Water-flux estimates from the potassium bromide tests at most sites did not represent overall recharge rates because the bromide remained primarily in the root zone. Apparent groundwater age was used to determine the groundwater residence time at the eight sites and to estimate recharge rates. Groundwater ages in the study area ranged from old water (defined here as groundwater that was recharged more than 50 years ago) to modern (defined here as groundwater that has recharged within the past 10 years). Groundwater ages indicated that the shallow monitoring wells generally had younger residence times, whereas the deeper monitoring wells generally had the older residence times. Groundwater dates from the shallowest monitoring wells were used to determine recharge rates at the water table. These rates generally were similar to recharge rates determined from tritium and chloride mass-balance methods. Groundwater recharge rates generally increased with well depth, and the deeper monitoring wells likely do not represent local recharge conditions but recharge from a regional flow system that receives recharge from distant sources. Overall, these data generally indicate that water movement within the unsaturated zone primarily is affected by spatial contrasts in mean annual precipitation and by the land use or land cover. The eight unsaturated-zone sites each generated unique, valuable datasets that likely will improve the understanding of water movement and recharge rates in the central Platte River valley.

Nebraska

Minnesota landowners’ trust in their department of natural resources, salient values similarity and wildlife value orientations

Due to extensive land conversion over the last century, much of the native prairie pothole ecosystem has been converted to agricultural or other human uses. The prairie pothole ecosystem is found in the northern plains of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. Because most of the land in this region is privately owned and used for agricultural production, most impacts to wildlife habitat are the result of decisions by individual landowners. Landowner trust in natural resource management agencies is important for agencies to effectively accomplish their mission. We measured the nature (competence and fairness) and level of trust that western Minnesota landowners have in the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MnDNR) and landowners’ wildlife value orientations (WVO). Landowners rated MnDNR slightly higher in competence than fairness; however, these two dimensions were strongly correlated. We developed a MnDNR trust scale (six items) and a three-cluster model dividing landowners along the MnDNR trust scale, which we named Negative (28%), Neutral (43%), and Positive (29%). We provide evidence supporting the salient values similarity (SVS) model that states people have trust in agencies holding similar values; landowners reporting greater importance for wildlife consideration when making land-use decisions also reported greater trust in the MnDNR. In addition, mutualist landowners had the highest trust in the MnDNR and utilitarian landowners the lowest level of trust, which is opposite of the trust relationship reported for the general public with state wildlife agencies. Based on the SVS model, our results suggest that mutualist landowners perceive greater congruence with MnDNR goals related to wildlife habitat compared to utilitarian landowners.

Minnesota

Connecting dryland fine-fuel assessments to wildfire exposure and natural resource values at risk

Background Wildland fire in arid and semi-arid (dryland) regions can intensify when climatic, biophysical, and land-use factors increase fuel load and continuity. To inform wildland fire management under these conditions, we developed high-resolution (10-m) estimates of fine fuel across the Altar Valley in southern Arizona, USA, which spans dryland, grass-dominated ecosystems that are administered by multiple land managers and owners. We coupled field measurements at the end of the 2021 growing season with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and vegetation indices acquired during and after the growing season to develop predictions of fine fuel across the entire valley. We then assessed how climate, soil, vegetation, and land-use factors influenced the amount and distribution of fine fuels. We connected fine fuels to fire management points, past ignition history, and socio-economic vulnerability to evaluate wildfire exposure and assessed how fuel related to habitat of the endangered masked bobwhite quail ( Colinus virginianus ridgwayi ). Results The high amount of fine fuel (400–3600 kg/ha; mean = 1392 kg/ha) predicted by our remote sensing model ( R 2 = 0.63) for 2021 compared to previous years in the valley was stimulated by near-record high growing season precipitation that was 177% of the 1990–2020 mean. Fine fuel increased across the valley if it was contained within the wildlife refuge boundary and had lower temperature and vapor pressure deficit, higher soil organic content, and abundant annual plants and an invasive perennial grass ( R 2 = 0.24). The index of potential exposure to wildfire showed a clustering of high exposure centered around roads and low-density housing development distant from fire management points and extending into the upper elevations flanking the valley. Within the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, fine fuel increased with habitat suitability for the masked bobwhite quail within and adjacent to core habitat areas, representing a natural resource value at risk, accompanied with higher overall mean fine fuel (1672 kg/ha) in relation to 2015 (1347 kg/ha) and 2020 (1363 kg/ha) means. Conclusions By connecting high-resolution estimates of fine fuel to climatic, biophysical and land-use factors, wildfire exposure, and a natural resource value at risk, we provide a pro-active and adaptive framework for fire risk management within highly variable and rapidly changing dryland landscapes.

Arizona

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Climate Risk Management