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Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences”

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USGS2011

Modern thermokarst lake dynamics in the continuous permafrost zone, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Quantifying changes in thermokarst lake extent is of importance for understanding the permafrost-related carbon budget, including the potential release of carbon via lake expansion or sequestration as peat in drained lake basins. We used high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery from 1950/51, 1978, and 2006/07 to quantify changes in thermokarst lakes for a 700 km 2 area on the northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The number of water bodies larger than 0.1 ha increased over the entire observation period (666 to 737 or +10.7%); however, total surface area decreased (5,066 ha to 4,312 ha or -14.9%). This pattern can largely be explained by the formation of remnant ponds following partial drainage of larger water bodies. Thus, analysis of large lakes (>40 ha) shows a decrease of 24% and 26% in number and area, respectively, differing from lake changes reported from other continuous permafrost regions. Thermokarst lake expansion rates did not change substantially between 1950/51 and 1978 (0.35 m/yr) and 1978 and 2006/07 (0.39 m/yr). However, most lakes that drained did expand as a result of surface permafrost degradation before lateral drainage. Drainage rates over the observation period were stable (2.2 to 2.3 per year). Thus, analysis of decadal-scale, high spatial resolution imagery has shown that lake drainage in this region is triggered by lateral breaching and not subterranean infiltration. Future research should be directed toward better understanding thermokarst lake dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolution as these systems have implications for landscape-scale hydrology and carbon budgets in thermokarst lake-rich regions in the circum-Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

The importance of lake emergent aquatic vegetation for estimating Arctic-boreal methane emissions

Areas of lakes that support emergent aquatic vegetation emit disproportionately more methane than open water but are under-represented in upscaled estimates of lake greenhouse gas emissions. These shallow areas are typically less than ∼1.5 m deep and can be detected with synthetic aperture radar (SAR). To assess the importance of lake emergent vegetation (LEV) zones to landscape-scale methane emissions, we combine airborne SAR mapping with field measurements of vegetated and open-water methane flux. First, we use Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR data from the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment to map LEV in 4,572 lakes across four Arctic-boreal study areas and find it comprises ∼16% of lake area, exceeding previous estimates, and exhibiting strong regional differences (averaging 59 [50–68]%, 22 [20–25]%, 1.0 [0.8–1.2]%, and 7.0 [5.0–12]% of lake areas in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, Yukon Flats, and northern and southern Canadian Shield, respectively). Next, we account for these vegetated areas through a simple upscaling exercise using paired methane fluxes from regions of open water and LEV. After excluding vegetated areas that could be accounted for as wetlands, we find that inclusion of LEV increases overall lake emissions by 21 [18–25]% relative to estimates that do not differentiate lake zones. While LEV zones are proportionately greater in small lakes, this relationship is weak and varies regionally, underscoring the need for methane-relevant remote sensing measurements of lake zones and a consistent criterion for distinguishing wetlands. Finally, Arctic-boreal lake methane upscaling estimates can be improved with more measurements from all lake zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2016

Climate change and dissolved organic carbon export to the Gulf of Maine

Ongoing climate change is affecting the concentration, export (flux), and timing of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported to the Gulf of Maine (GoM) through changes in hydrologic regime. DOC export was calculated for water years 1950 through 2013 for 20 rivers and for water years 1930 through 2013 for 14 rivers draining to the GoM. DOC export was also estimated for the 21st century based on climate and hydrologic modeling in a previously published study. DOC export was calculated by using the regression model LOADEST to fit seasonally adjusted concentration discharge (C-Q) relations. Our results are an analysis of the sensitivity of DOC export to changes in hydrologic conditions over time since land cover and vegetation were held constant over time. Despite large interannual variability, all rivers had increasing DOC export during winter and these trends were significant ( p < 0.05) in 10 out of 20 rivers for 1950 to 2013 and in 13 out of 14 rivers for 1930 to 2013. All rivers also had increasing annual export of DOC although fewer trends were statistically significant than for winter export. Projections for DOC export during the 21st century were variable depending on the climate model and greenhouse gas emission scenario that affected future river discharge through effects on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The most consistent result was a significant increase in DOC export in winter in all model-by-emission scenarios. DOC export was projected to decrease during the summer in all model-by-emission scenarios, with statistically significant decreases in half of the scenarios.

Maine↗

USGS2010

Controls on mangrove forest‐atmosphere carbon dioxide exchanges in western Everglades National Park

We report on net ecosystem production (NEP) and key environmental controls on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) between a mangrove forest and the atmosphere in the coastal Florida Everglades. An eddy covariance system deployed above the canopy was used to determine NEE during January 2004 through August 2005. Maximum daytime NEE ranged from −20 to −25 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 between March and May. Respiration (R d ) was highly variable (2.81 ± 2.41 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 ), reaching peak values during the summer wet season. During the winter dry season, forest CO 2 assimilation increased with the proportion of diffuse solar irradiance in response to greater radiative transfer in the forest canopy. Surface water salinity and tidal activity were also important controls on NEE. Daily light use efficiency was reduced at high (>34 parts per thousand (ppt)) compared to low (<17 ppt) salinity by 46%. Tidal inundation lowered daytime R d by ∼0.9 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 and nighttime R d by ∼0.5 μ mol (CO 2 ) m −2 s −1 . The forest was a sink for atmospheric CO 2 , with an annual NEP of 1170 ± 127 g C m −2 during 2004. This unusually high NEP was attributed to year‐round productivity and low ecosystem respiration which reached a maximum of only 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Tidal export of dissolved inorganic carbon derived from belowground respiration likely lowered the estimates of mangrove forest respiration. These results suggest that carbon balance in mangrove coastal systems will change in response to variable salinity and inundation patterns, possibly resulting from secular sea level rise and climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Effects of permafrost aggradation on peat properties as determined from a pan-Arctic synthesis of plant macrofossils

Permafrost dynamics play an important role in high-latitude peatland carbon balance and are key to understanding the future response of soil carbon stocks. Permafrost aggradation can control the magnitude of the carbon feedback in peatlands through effects on peat properties. We compiled peatland plant macrofossil records for the northern permafrost zone (515 cores from 280 sites) and classified samples by vegetation type and environmental class (fen, bog, tundra and boreal permafrost, and thawed permafrost). We examined differences in peat properties (bulk density, carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and organic matter content, and C/N ratio) and C accumulation rates among vegetation types and environmental classes. Consequences of permafrost aggradation differed between boreal and tundra biomes, including differences in vegetation composition, C/N ratios, and N content. The vegetation composition of tundra permafrost peatlands was similar to permafrost-free fens, while boreal permafrost peatlands more closely resembled permafrost-free bogs. Nitrogen content in boreal permafrost and thawed permafrost peatlands was significantly lower than in permafrost-free bogs despite similar vegetation types (0.9% versus 1.5% N). Median long-term C accumulation rates were higher in fens (23 g C m −2   yr −1 ) than in permafrost-free bogs (18 g C m −2  yr −1 ) and were lowest in boreal permafrost peatlands (14 g C m −2  yr −1 ). The plant macrofossil record demonstrated transitions from fens to bogs to permafrost peatlands, bogs to fens, permafrost aggradation within fens, and permafrost thaw and reaggradation. Using data synthesis, we have identified predominant peatland successional pathways, changes in vegetation type, peat properties, and C accumulation rates associated with permafrost aggradation.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2015

Soil greenhouse gas emissions and carbon budgeting in a short-hydroperiod floodplain wetland

Understanding the controls on floodplain carbon (C) cycling is important for assessing greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for C sequestration in river-floodplain ecosystems. We hypothesized that greater hydrologic connectivity would increase C inputs to floodplains that would not only stimulate soil C gas emissions but also sequester more C in soils. In an urban Piedmont river (151 km 2 watershed) with a floodplain that is dry most of the year, we quantified soil CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O net emissions along gradients of floodplain hydrologic connectivity, identified controls on soil aerobic and anaerobic respiration, and developed a floodplain soil C budget. Sites were chosen along a longitudinal river gradient and across lateral floodplain geomorphic units (levee, backswamp, and toe slope). CO 2 emissions decreased downstream in backswamps and toe slopes and were high on the levees. CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes were near zero; however, CH 4 emissions were highest in the backswamp. Annual CO 2 emissions correlated negatively with soil water-filled pore space and positively with variables related to drier, coarser soil. Conversely, annual CH 4 emissions had the opposite pattern of CO 2 . Spatial variation in aerobic and anaerobic respiration was thus controlled by oxygen availability but was not related to C inputs from sedimentation or vegetation. The annual mean soil CO 2 emission rate was 1091 g C m −2  yr −1 , the net sedimentation rate was 111 g C m −2  yr −1 , and the vegetation production rate was 240 g C m −2  yr −1 , with a soil C balance (loss) of −338 g C m −2  yr −1 . This floodplain is losing C likely due to long-term drying from watershed urbanization.

Virginia↗

USGS2017

Estimation and uncertainty of recent carbon accumulation and vertical accretion in drained and undrained forested peatlands of the southeastern USA

The purpose of this study was to determine how drainage impacts carbon densities and recent rates (past 50 years) of vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in southeastern forested peatlands. We compared these parameters in drained maple-gum (MAPL), Atlantic white cedar (CDR), and pocosin (POC) communities in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge (GDS) of Virginia/North Carolina and in an intact (undrained) CDR swamp in the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (AR) of North Carolina. Peat cores were analyzed for bulk density, percent organic carbon, and 137 Cs and 210 Pb. An uncertainty analysis of both 137 Cs and 210 Pb approaches was used to constrain error at least partially related to mobility of both radioisotopes. GDS peats had lower porosities (89.6% (SD = 1.71) versus 95.3% (0.18)) and higher carbon densities (0.082 (0.021) versus 0.037 (0.009) g C cm −3 ) than AR. Vertical accretion rates (0.10–0.56 cm yr −1 ) were used to estimate a time period of ~84–362 years for reestablishment of peat lost during the 2011 Lateral West fire at the GDS. Carbon accumulation rates ranged from 51 to 389 g C m −2 yr −1 for all sites. In the drained (GDS) versus intact (AR) CDR sites, carbon accumulation rates were similar with 137 Cs (87 GDS versus 92 AR g C m −2 yr −1 ) and somewhat less at the GDS than AR as determined with 210 Pb (111 GDS versus 159 AR g C m −2 yr −1 ). Heightened productivity and high polyphenol content of peat may be responsible for similar rates of carbon accumulation in both drained and intact CDR peatlands.

Alligator Rivers National Wildlife Refuge, Great D↗

USGS2016

Variation of energy and carbon fluxes from a restored temperate freshwater wetland and implications for carbon market verification protocols

Temperate freshwater wetlands are among the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, stimulating interest in using restored wetlands as biological carbon sequestration projects for greenhouse gas reduction programs. In this study, we used the eddy covariance technique to measure surface energy carbon fluxes from a constructed, impounded freshwater wetland during two annual periods that were 8 years apart: 2002–2003 and 2010–2011. During 2010–2011, we measured methane (CH 4 ) fluxes to quantify the annual atmospheric carbon mass balance and its concomitant influence on global warming potential (GWP). Peak growing season fluxes of latent heat and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were greater in 2002–2003 compared to 2010–2011. In 2002, the daily net ecosystem exchange reached as low as −10.6 g C m −2  d −1 , which was greater than 3 times the magnitude observed in 2010 (−2.9 g C m −2  d −1 ). CH 4 fluxes during 2010–2011 were positive throughout the year and followed a strong seasonal pattern, ranging from 38.1 mg C m −2  d −1 in the winter to 375.9 mg C m −2  d −1 during the summer. The results of this study suggest that the wetland had reduced gross ecosystem productivity in 2010–2011, likely due to the increase in dead plant biomass (standing litter) that inhibited the generation of new vegetation growth. In 2010–2011, there was a net positive GWP (675.3 g C m −2  yr −1 ), and when these values are evaluated as a sustained flux, the wetland will not reach radiative balance even after 500 years.

California↗

USGS2019

Sediment trapping and carbon sequestration in floodplains of the lower Atchafalaya Basin, LA: Allochthonous vs. autochthonous carbon sources

Recent studies suggest that about 2 Pg of organic C is stored on floodplains worldwide. The present study indicates the Atchafalaya River, fifth largest river in the United States in terms of discharge, traps 30 mm/y of sediment on average within its floodplain, which is the highest average non‐episodic rate of fluvial deposition on the U.S. Coastal Plain. We installed sediment sampling stations at 23 sites, normally in transect, in the Atchafalaya Basin; these sites represent the range of hydrogeomorphic conditions on the floodplain based on hydrologic connectivity with the river main stem. The rate of sedimentation translates into about 12.5 Tg/y and includes 694 Mg/y of organic C. Highest sedimentation rates are associated with areas of high connectivity to channels and prograding deltaic processes. The δ 13 C content suggests that 35% of deposited C is derived from river‐suspended sediment compared to litterfall in the Basin. Thus, much of the organic C sequestered is allochthonous material. However, isolated interior sites with limited connectivity to the channel may generate and sequester large amounts of autochthonous C. The substantial trapping of both auto‐ and allochthonous C (392 Mg/y) make this freshwater‐forested floodplain critical in storage of material before reaching the coastal delta and estuary. This C deposition rate (340 g C m ‐2 y ‐1 ) exceeds all other rates reported in recent Blue Carbon and Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetland studies. Atchafalaya C sequestration occurs in/near areas with tidal influence and like other coastal systems is an important site for trapping mineral and organic sediment and in global C cycling.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Temporal variability of carbon and nutrient burial, sediment accretion, and mass accumulation over the past century in a carbonate platform mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades.

The objective of this research was to measure temporal variability in accretion and mass sedimentation rates (including organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP)) from the past century in a mangrove forest on the Shark River in Everglades National Park, USA. The 210 Pb Constant Rate of Supply model was applied to six soil cores to calculate annual rates over the most recent 10, 50, and 100 year time spans. Our results show that rates integrated over longer timeframes are lower than those for shorter, recent periods of observation. Additionally, the substantial spatial variability between cores over the 10 year period is diminished over the 100 year record, raising two important implications. First, a multiple-decade assessment of soil accretion and OC burial provides a more conservative estimate and is likely to be most relevant for forecasting these rates relative to long-term processes of sea level rise and climate change mitigation. Second, a small number of sampling locations are better able to account for spatial variability over the longer periods than for the shorter periods. The site average 100 year OC burial rate, 123 ± 19 (standard deviation) g m -2 yr -1 , is low compared with global mangrove values. High TN and TP burial rates in recent decades may lead to increased soil carbon remineralization, contributing to the low carbon burial rates. Finally, the strong correlation between OC burial and accretion across this site signals the substantial contribution of OC to soil building in addition to the ecosystem service of CO 2 sequestration.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Differential response of carbon fluxes to climate in three peatland ecosystems that vary in the presence and stability of permafrost

Changes in vegetation and soil properties following permafrost degradation and thermokarst development in peatlands may cause changes in net carbon storage. To better understand these dynamics, we established three sites in Alaska that vary in permafrost regime, including a black spruce peat plateau forest with stable permafrost, an internal collapse scar bog formed as a result of thermokarst, and a rich fen without permafrost. Measurements include year-round eddy covariance estimates of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water, and energy fluxes, associated environmental variables, and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes at the collapse scar bog. The ecosystems all acted as net sinks of CO 2 in 2011 and 2012, when air temperature and precipitation remained near long-term means. In 2013, under a late snowmelt and late leaf out followed by a hot, dry summer, the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog were sources of CO 2 . In this same year, CO 2 uptake in the fen increased, largely because summer inundation from groundwater inputs suppressed ecosystem respiration. CO 2 exchange in the permafrost forest and collapse scar bog was sensitive to warm air temperatures, with 0.5 g C m −2 lost each day when maximum air temperature was very warm (≥29°C). The bog lost 4981 ± 300 mg CH 4 m −2 between April and September 2013, indicating that this ecosystem acted as a significant source of both CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere in 2013. These results suggest that boreal peatland responses to warming and drying, both of which are expected to occur in a changing climate, will depend on permafrost regime.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Component greenhouse gas fluxes and radiative balance from two deltaic marshes in Louisiana: Pairing chamber techniques and eddy covariance

Coastal marshes take up atmospheric CO 2 while emitting CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O. This ability to sequester carbon (C) is much greater for wetlands on a per-area basis than from most ecosystems, facilitating scientific, political, and economic interest in their value as greenhouse gas sinks. However, the greenhouse gas balance of Gulf of Mexico wetlands is particularly understudied. We describe the net ecosystem exchange (NEE c ) of CO 2 and CH 4 using eddy covariance (EC) in comparison with fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O using chambers from brackish and freshwater marshes in Louisiana, USA. From EC, we found that 182 g C m -2 y -1 was lost through NEE c from the brackish marsh. Of this, 11 g C m -2 y -1 resulted from net CH 4 emissions and the remaining 171 g C m -2 y -1 resulted from net CO 2 emissions. In contrast, -290 g C m 2 y -1 was taken up through NEE c by the freshwater marsh, with 47 g C m -2 y -1 emitted as CH 4 and -337 g C m -2 y -1 taken up as CO 2 . From chambers, we discovered that neither site had large fluxes of N 2 O. Sustained-flux greenhouse gas accounting metrics indicated that both marshes had a positive (warming) radiative balance, with the brackish marsh having a substantially greater warming effect than the freshwater marsh. That net respiratory emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 as estimated through chamber techniques were 2-4 times different from emissions estimated through EC requires additional understanding of the artifacts created by different spatial and temporal sampling footprints between techniques.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2021

Long-term carbon sinks in marsh soils of coastal Louisiana are at risk to wetland loss

Coastal marshes are essential habitats for soil carbon accumulation and burial, which can influence the global carbon budget. Coastal Louisiana has extensive marsh habitats (fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) where soil cores were collected to a depth of 100 cm at 24 sites to assess long-term carbon accumulation and burial rates. Select soil depth intervals were analyzed for bulk density, total carbon, and radionuclide ( 137 Cs and 210 Pb) dating. Marsh habitat maps (years 1949–2013) were also used to determine the most frequently occurring habitat at each field site. Over 5 decades, half of the sites transitioned between marsh habitats at least once. Saline marshes tended to have lower mean total carbon density (0.04 ± 0.002 g cm −3 ) and lower mean long-term total carbon accumulation rates (211 ± 46 g TC m −2 yr −1 , n = 5, based on 210 Pb) compared to the other marsh habitats. Using marsh habitat specific accumulation rates and area, the total carbon burial rate for coastal Louisiana in year 2013 was estimated at 4.3 Tg TC yr −1 which accounts for about 5%–21% of the estimated tidal wetland burial rate globally. Historically, about 1.0 Tg TC yr −1 was lost due to reduced marsh area from 1949 to 2013. With no coastal restoration activity, the predicted wetland loss over the next 50 years could reduce carbon burial in coastal Louisiana to 2.1 Tg TC yr −1 , a reduction of about 50% from the year 2013 rate, with potential to significantly alter the global carbon budget.

Louisiana↗

USGS2020

Getting to the root of plant‐mediated methane emissions and oxidation in a thermokarst bog

Vascular plants are important in the wetland methane cycle, but their effect on production, oxidation, and transport has high uncertainty, limiting our ability to predict emissions. In a permafrost‐thaw bog in Interior Alaska, we used plant manipulation treatments, field‐deployed planar optical oxygen sensors, direct measurements of methane oxidation, and microbial DNA analyses to disentangle mechanisms by which vascular vegetation affect methane emissions. Vegetation operated on top of baseline methane emissions, which varied with proximity to the thawing permafrost margin. Emissions from vegetated plots increased over the season, resulting in cumulative seasonal methane emissions that were 4.1–5.2 g m −2 season −1 greater than unvegetated plots. Mass balance calculations signify these greater emissions were due to increased methane production (3.0–3.5 g m −2 season −1 ) and decreased methane oxidation (1.1–1.6 g m −2 season −1 ). Minimal oxidation occurred along the plant‐transport pathway, and oxidation was suppressed outside the plant pathway. Our data indicate suppression of methane oxidation was stimulated by root exudates fueling competition among microbes for electron acceptors. This contention is supported by the fact that methane oxidation and relative abundance of methanotrophs decreased over the season in the presence of vegetation, but methane oxidation remained steady in unvegetated treatments; oxygen was not detected around plant roots but was detected around silicone tubes mimicking aerenchyma; and oxygen injection experiments suggested that oxygen consumption was faster in the presence of vascular vegetation. Root exudates are known to fuel methane production, and our work provides evidence they also decrease methane oxidation.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Higher temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration in low marsh compared to high elevation marsh ecosystems

Salt marsh habitats contain some of the highest quantities of soil organic carbon (C) per unit area, but increasing anthropogenic stressors threaten their ability to maintain themselves as large C reservoirs in some regions. We quantify rates of C gas exchange (methane [CH 4 ] and carbon dioxide [CO 2 ]) monthly across a 16-month period from a low nitrogen “reference” salt marsh on Cape Cod in New England using static chambers. While the summer period is the most dynamic period of marsh C gas exchange, we observed substantial fluxes in the early summer through late fall, highlighting the importance of including shoulder seasons in studies of marsh C exchange. We estimate annual ecosystem respiration between 108 and 252 g C m −2 yr −1 , which varied based on temperature and elevation. This flux is lower than in other nearby marshes, which we attribute to the frequently inundated, microtidal nature of the site, resulting in the majority of respired CO 2 being exported via lateral, not vertical, fluxes from this marsh. We observed significantly higher temperature sensitivity from the low elevation of the marsh compared to the high marsh. Recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise is leading to a well-documented expansion of low marsh into high marsh vegetation zones in this marsh system and others in the region. While rates of C burial are higher in the low marsh compared to the high marsh, the higher temperature sensitivity of respiration in the low marsh may diminish the longevity of marsh C stocks with climate warming.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Combining eddy covariance and chamber methods to better constrain CO2 and CH4 fluxes across a heterogeneous restored tidal wetland

Tidal wetlands play an important role in global carbon cycling by storing carbon in sediment at millennial time scales, transporting dissolved carbon into coastal waters, and contributing significantly to global CH 4 budgets. However, these ecosystems' greenhouse gas monitoring and predictions are challenging due to spatial heterogeneity and tidal flooding. We utilized eddy covariance and chamber measurements to quantify fluxes of CO 2 and CH 4 at a restored tidal saltmarsh across spatial and temporal scales. Eddy covariance data revealed that the site was a strong net sink for CO 2 (−387 g C-CO 2 m −2 yr −1 , SD = 46) and a small net source of CH 4 (0.7 g C-CH 4 m −2 yr −1 , SD = 0.4). After partitioning net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 into gross primary production and ecosystem respiration, we found that high net uptake of CO 2 was due to low respiration emissions rather than high photosynthetic rates. We also found that respiration rates varied between land covers with increased respiration in mudflats compared to vegetated areas. Daytime soil chamber measurements revealed that the greatest CO 2 emission was from higher elevation mudflat soils (0.5 μmol m −2 s −1 , SE = 1.3) and CH 4 emission was greatest from lower elevation Spartina foliosa soils (1.6 nmol m −2 s −1 , SD = 8.2). Overall, these results highlight the importance of the relationships between wetland plant community and elevation, and inundation for CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. Future research should include the use of high-resolution imagery, automated chambers, and a focus on quantifying carbon exported in tidal waters.

California↗

USGS2017

Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C ( V c max_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗