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The expectations and challenges of wildlife disease research in the era of genomics: Forecasting with a horizon scan-like exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented ‘Big Data’ tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural ‘Genomics of Disease in Wildlife’ workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed five themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: i) “Improving Communication”, ii) “Methodological and Analytical Advancements”, iii) “Translation into Practice”, iv) “Integrating Landscape Ecology and Genomics”, and v) “Emerging New Questions”. Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Journal of Heredity

Rapid diagnosis of avian influenza virus in wild birds: Use of a portable rRT-PCR and freeze-dried reagents in the field

Wild birds have been implicated in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype, prompting surveillance along migratory flyways. Sampling of wild birds for avian influenza virus (AIV) is often conducted in remote regions, but results are often delayed because of the need to transport samples to a laboratory equipped for molecular testing. Real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) is a molecular technique that offers one of the most accurate and sensitive methods for diagnosis of AIV. The previously strict lab protocols needed for rRT-PCR are now being adapted for the field. Development of freeze-dried (lyophilized) reagents that do not require cold chain, with sensitivity at the level of wet reagents has brought on-site remote testing to a practical goal. Here we present a method for the rapid diagnosis of AIV in wild birds using an rRT-PCR unit (Ruggedized Advanced Pathogen Identification Device or RAPID, Idaho Technologies, Salt Lake City, UT) that employs lyophilized reagents (Influenza A Target 1 Taqman; ASAY-ASY-0109, Idaho Technologies). The reagents contain all of the necessary components for testing at appropriate concentrations in a single tube: primers, probes, enzymes, buffers and internal positive controls, eliminating errors associated with improper storage or handling of wet reagents. The portable unit performs a screen for Influenza A by targeting the matrix gene and yields results in 2-3 hours. Genetic subtyping is also possible with H5 and H7 primer sets that target the hemagglutinin gene. The system is suitable for use on cloacal and oropharyngeal samples collected from wild birds, as demonstrated here on the migratory shorebird species, the western sandpiper (Calidrus mauri) captured in Northern California. Animal handling followed protocols approved by the Animal Care and Use Committee of the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center and permits of the U.S. Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory. The primary advantage of this technique is to expedite diagnosis of wild birds, increasing the chances of containing an outbreak in a remote location. On-site diagnosis would also prove useful for identifying and studying infected individuals in wild populations. The opportunity to collect information on host biology (immunological and physiological response to infection) and spatial ecology (migratory performance of infected birds) will provide insights into the extent to which wild birds can act as vectors for AIV over long distances.

Journal of Visualized Experiments

Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: Plant mortality from drought and warming

The occurrence of plant species across the globe is largely constrained by climate. Ecologists use plant-climate relationships such as bioclimatic envelopes and related niche models to determine potential environmental conditions promoting probable species occurrence. Traditionally bioclimatic envelopes either exclude disturbance explicitly, or only include disturbance as infrequent and smaller scale processes, assuming that the net effect of climate parameters on key demographic processes predict longer-term equilibrial responses of biota. Due to increasing frequency and extent of extreme events associated with climate change, ecologists may need to increase focus on individual demographic events driven by environmental extremes such as widespread coral bleaching or large-scale tree die-off. An expanded focus on how extreme events catalyze individual demographic events would complement existing tools that predict long-term equilibrial biogeographic responses associated with long-term trends in climate. In many cases, extreme conditions (e.g. drought) are a necessary precursor for an abrupt demographic event (e.g. large-scale tree die-off) and the effects of extremes can be exacerbated by climatic trends (e.g. higher temperatures in combination with drought). Here, we highlight application of bioclimatic models for predicting individual demographic events. Defining the environmental conditions that precipitate demographic events such as widespread tree mortality is a necessary precursor for applying predictions to geographic space, and may require challenging biota with experiments that impose a combination of ecologically extreme conditions in one parameter and a shifting distribution in another (e.g. drought under higher temperatures). Currently data on conditions that drive individual demographic events associated with extremes are usually rare, aggregated across time, and/or correlative. We highlight this approach with a case study of drought-induced mortality in adult Pinus edulis trees that predicts a more than five-fold increase in frequency of die-off events under a global change scenario of high emissions. This general approach complements both traditional bioclimatic envelopes and more detailed physiological approaches currently being refined to address climate change challenges. Notably, this proposed approach could be developed for any climate condition or plant life stage, offering promise for improving predictions of individual demographic events that are rapidly altering ecosystems globally.

International Journal of Plant Sciences

Streamlined approach for assessing embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt in the United States

In today's complex global supply chains, time and data intensive analyses are required to understand global flows of mineral commodities from mine to consumer, particularly for mineral commodities in products (electronics, automobiles, etc.) that contain multiple parts with many mineral commodities. National and regional analyses require additional time and data to incorporate international trade flows. However, data limitations and time constraints often prohibit global and national material flow analyses for minor metals. Here we present a methodological approach to circumvent these constraints by utilizing readily available industry-level global data from the United Nations Statistics Division and national industrial data to estimate total requirements for a mineral commodity. We apply this approach to lithium and cobalt use in the United States for the year 2018 and distinguish between apparent raw material consumption versus inferred embedded consumption of lithium and cobalt materials in all forms. The results show that more than half of the United States’ total requirements for both lithium and cobalt is in parts and products that were manufactured outside the United States. In large part, this is due to limited US manufacturing capability for lithium-ion battery materials and cells and the United States’ high import reliance for electronics that use those batteries.

Journal of Industrial Ecology

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sandhill crane habitat management

Invasive species often threaten native wildlife populations and strain the budgets of agencies charged with wildlife management. We demonstrate the potential of cost-effectiveness analysis to improve the efficiency and value of efforts to enhance sandhill crane ( Grus canadensis ) roosting habitat. We focus on the central Platte River in Nebraska (USA), a region of international ecological importance for migrating avian species including sandhill cranes. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a valuation process designed to compare alternative actions based on the cost of achieving a pre-determined objective. We estimated costs for removal of invasive vegetation using geographic information system simulations and calculated benefits as the increase in area of sandhill crane roosting habitat. We generated cost effectiveness values for removing invasive vegetation on 7 land parcels and for the entire central Platte River to compare the cost-effectiveness of management at specific sites and for the central Platte River landscape. Median cost effectiveness values for the 7 land parcels evaluated suggest that costs for creating 1 additional hectare of sandhill crane roosting habitat totaled US $1,595. By contrast, we found that creating an additional hectare of sandhill crane roosting habitat could cost as much as US $12,010 for some areas in the central Platte River, indicating substantial cost savings can be achieved by using a cost effectiveness analysis to target specific land parcels for management. Cost-effectiveness analysis, used in conjunction with geographic information systems, can provide decision-makers with a new tool for identifying the most economically efficient allocation of resources to achieve habitat management goals.

Nebraska

Ecological impacts of wheat seeding after a Sierra Nevada wildfire

The Highway Fire burned 1680 ha of mixed ponderosa pine–oak–chaparral in the newly created Giant Sequoia National Monument and the adjacent Sequoia National Forest of Fresno County, California in August 2001. The USDA Forest Service Burned Area Emergency Rehabilitation (BAER) program recommended that portions of the burned forest be seeded with a non-persistent variety of wheat at a density of 157 kg ha –1 (140 lb/ac). The present study compared the vascular plant diversity and cover in seeded and unseeded parts of this burn to evaluate the ecological impact of seeding an alien grass. In the first post-fire growing season, the natural regeneration of unseeded control sites averaged ~55% ground surface covered. Wheat seeding enhanced the ground cover, averaging 95% ground surface cover. Wheat was the dominant species on the seeded sites, comprising 67% of the total cover. Dominance–diversity curves were markedly affected by the seeding and indicated a disruption in the natural ecological structure of these communities. On seeded sites, wheat dominated and all other species were poorly represented whereas, on unseeded control sites, there was a more equitable distribution of species. Correlated with the wheat cover was a significant decrease in species richness at all scales examined. Total species richness was reduced from 152 species across all unseeded sites to 104 species on all seeded sites. Average species richness, at scales from 1 to 1000 m 2 , was 30–40% lower on seeded sites. Species most strongly inhibited were post-fire endemics whose lifecycle is restricted to immediate post-fire environments. Seeded sites had fewer alien species than unseeded sites; however, this may not have any lasting effect since other studies show the primary alien threat is not in the first post-fire year. Seeding was also associated with an order of magnitude drop in Pinus ponderosa seedling recruitment and, coupled with the massive thatch still remaining on the site, it is likely that recruitment will be inhibited in subsequent years.

International Journal of Wildland Fire

Developing species-age cohorts from forest inventory and analysis data to parameterize a forest landscape model

Simulating long-term, landscape level changes in forest composition requires estimates of stand age to initialize succession models. Detailed stand ages are rarely available, and even general information on stand history often is lacking. We used data from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to estimate broad age classes for a forested landscape to simulate changes in landscape composition and structure relative to climate change at Fort Drum, a 43,000 ha U.S. Army installation in northwestern New York. Using simple linear regression, we developed relationships between tree diameter and age for FIA site trees from the host and adjacent ecoregions and applied those relationships to forest stands at Fort Drum. We observed that approximately half of the variation in age was explained by diameter breast height (DBH) across all species studied ( r 2 = 0.42 for sugar maple Acer saccharum to 0.63 for white ash Fraxinus americana ). We then used age-diameter relationships from published research on northern hardwood species to calibrate results from the FIA-based analysis. With predicted stand age, we used tree species life histories and environmental conditions represented by ecological site types to parameterize a stochastic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to spatially and temporally model successional changes in forest communities at Fort Drum. Forest stands modeled over 100 years without significant disturbance appeared to reflect expected patterns of increasing dominance by shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species such as sugar maple, red maple ( Acer rubrum ), and eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) where soil moisture was sufficient. On drier sandy soils, eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), red pine ( P. resinosa ), northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ), and white oak ( Q. alba ) continued to be important components throughout the modeling period with no net loss at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that despite abundant precipitation and relatively low evapotranspiration rates for the region, low soil water holding capacity and fertility may be limiting factors for the spread of mesophytic species on excessively drained soils in the region. Increasing atmospheric temperatures projected for the region could alter moisture regimes for many coarse-textured soils providing a possible mechanism for expansion of xerophytic tree species.

New York

Estimating suitable environments for invasive plant species across large landscapes: a remote sensing strategy using Landsat 7 ETM+

The key to reducing ecological and economic damage caused by invasive plant species is to locate and eradicate new invasions before they threaten native biodiversity and ecological processes. We used Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to estimate suitable environments for four invasive plants in Big Bend National Park, southwest Texas, using a presence-only modeling approach. Giant reed ( Arundo donax ), Lehmann lovegrass ( Eragrostis lehmanniana ), horehound ( Marrubium vulgare ) and buffelgrass ( Pennisteum ciliare ) were selected for remote sensing spatial analyses. Multiple dates/seasons of imagery were used to account for habitat conditions within the study area and to capture phenological differences among targeted species and the surrounding landscape. Individual species models had high (0.91 to 0.99) discriminative ability to differentiate invasive plant suitable environments from random background locations. Average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranged from 0.91 to 0.99, indicating that plant predictive models exhibited high discriminative ability to differentiate suitable environments for invasive plant species from random locations. Omission rates ranged from <1.0 to 18%. We demonstrated that useful models estimating suitable environments for invasive plants may be created with <50 occurrence locations and that reliable modeling using presence-only datasets can be powerful tools for land managers.

Texas

Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States

Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer owing to rising temperatures by the end of the 21st century compared with historical conditions. Management implications of such changes for six representative land management units include seasonal shifts in burning opportunities from summer to cool-season months, but with considerable regional variation. We contend that the practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria (as defined today) will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, kentucky, Lou

Managing native and non-native sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

The utility of estimating net primary productivity over Alaska using baseline AVHRR data

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a fundamental ecological variable that provides information about the health and status of vegetation communities. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, or NDVI, derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is increasingly being used to model or predict NPP, especially over large remote areas. In this article, seven seasonally based metrics calculated from a seven-year baseline NDVI dataset were used to model NPP over Alaska, USA. For each growing season, they included maximum, mean and summed NDVI, total days, product of total days and maximum NDVI, an integral estimate of NDVI and a summed product of NDVI and solar radiation. Field (plot) derived NPP estimates were assigned to 18 land cover classes from an Alaskan statewide land cover database. Linear relationships between NPP and each NDVI metric were analysed at four scales: plot, 1-km, 10-km and 20-km pixels. Results show moderate to poor relationship between any of the metrics and NPP estimates for all data sets and scales. Use of NDVI for estimating NPP may be possible, but caution is required due to data seasonality, the scaling process used and land surface heterogeneity.

Alaska

Seasonal thermal ecology of adult walleye (Sander vitreus) in Lake Huron and Lake Erie

The purpose of this study was to characterize thermal patterns and generate occupancy models for adult walleye from lakes Erie and Huron with internally implanted biologgers coupled with a telemetry study to assess the effects of sex, fish size, diel periods, and lake. Sex, size, and diel periods had no effect on thermal occupancy of adult walleye in either lake. Thermal occupancy differed between lakes and seasons. Walleye from Lake Erie generally experienced higher temperatures throughout the spring and summer months than did walleye in Lake Huron, due to limnological differences between the lakes. Tagged walleye that remained in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron (i.e., adjacent to the release location), as opposed to those migrating to the main basin of Lake Huron, experienced higher temperatures, and thus accumulated more thermal units (the amount of temperature units amassed over time) throughout the year. Walleye that migrated toward the southern end of Lake Huron occupied higher temperatures than those that moved toward the north. Consequently, walleye that emigrated from Saginaw Bay experienced thermal environments that were more favorable for growth as they spent more time within their thermal optimas than those that remained in Saginaw Bay. Results presented in this paper provide information on the thermal experience of wild fish in a large lake, and could be used to refine sex- and lake-specific bioenergetics models of walleye in the Great Lakes to enable the testing of ecological hypotheses.

Journal of Thermal Biology

Visioning and conceptual framework for coordinating Great Lakes connecting waters research and monitoring

The Laurentian Great Lakes are connected via naturally occurring straits and rivers: St. Marys River, Straits of Mackinac, St. Clair-Detroit River System, Niagara River, and the St. Lawrence River. Despite the historical ecological and economic importance of these waters, international agreements (e.g., Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement) only recently explicitly named the Great Lakes Connecting Waters (GLCWs), requiring governments to address the challenges of adequate restoration and protection from historical use and degradation. Standardized research and monitoring activities are needed; however, there is no established mechanism for coordination across the GLCWs. A three-day summit in 2023 convened experts to form the initial framework for a GLCWs Collaborative to increase standardizations and knowledge transfer. Participants drafted a governance structure and priorities following the principles of collective impact but allowed for place-based specificity for local connecting water organizations. Priorities and suggestions for success included: 1) co-development of the collaborative with all rights holders, stakeholders, and surrounding communities; 2) investment in research and technology specific to GLCWs; 3) investment in information transfer and training; 4) increased communication; and 5) better integration into existing Great Lakes research, monitoring, and funding programs. Expanding participation in all local GLCWs organizations with principles of inclusivity was identified as a larger collaborative goal. Next steps in the development of a GLCWs Collaborative include increased communication and formation of working groups and obtaining funding for a dedicated organization to begin supporting activities (communication, facilitation, logistics). By using a deliberate process for establishment, the potentially slower time frame for establishment may result in increased participation and success.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Estimating aboveground biomass in interior Alaska with Landsat data and field measurements

Terrestrial plant biomass is a key biophysical parameter required for understanding ecological systems in Alaska. An accurate estimation of biomass at a regional scale provides an important data input for ecological modeling in this region. In this study, we created an aboveground biomass (AGB) map at 30-m resolution for the Yukon Flats ecoregion of interior Alaska using Landsat data and field measurements. Tree, shrub, and herbaceous AGB data in both live and dead forms were collected in summers and autumns of 2009 and 2010. Using the Landsat-derived spectral variables and the field AGB data, we generated a regression model and applied this model to map AGB for the ecoregion. A 3-fold cross-validation indicated that the AGB estimates had a mean absolute error of 21.8 Mg/ha and a mean bias error of 5.2 Mg/ha. Additionally, we validated the mapping results using an airborne lidar dataset acquired for a portion of the ecoregion. We found a significant relationship between the lidar-derived canopy height and the Landsat-derived AGB (R 2 = 0.40). The AGB map showed that 90% of the ecoregion had AGB values ranging from 10 Mg/ha to 134 Mg/ha. Vegetation types and fires were the primary factors controlling the spatial AGB patterns in this ecoregion.

Alaska

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

California

Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

International Journal of Forestry Research

Site-level connectivity identified from multiple sources of movement data to inform conservation of a migratory bird

Migratory birds depend on a suite of sites across their annual cycles, making them vulnerable to a wide variety of anthropogenic pressures. Current area-based conservation measures have been found inadequate to safeguard migratory birds, in part due to a lack of consideration for the connectivity between sites mediated by the movements of individuals. To address this issue, we develop a network analysis integrating different types of individual movement data for a migratory shorebird, the Black-tailed Godwit ( Limosa limosa ), across the East Atlantic Flyway. Leveraging metal-ring recoveries, colour-ring re-sightings and satellite tracking from over 10,000 individual godwits, we quantify variation in connectivity between sites across the migratory range, using two weighted metrics to address sampling biases. Colour-ring re-sightings provided the largest number of sites (70%) and links (60% and 43% per season) overall, followed by tracking data (50% of sites, 49% and 63% of links per season) and ring recoveries (25% of sites, <1% of links per season), with clear regional variation in datatype contributions. Sampling completeness of the network structure varied with longitude, with information particularly lacking in central and eastern countries of both Europe and Africa. We identified 49 sites playing a disproportionate role in the site network, each with direct connections to 48 (interquartile range 32–84) other sites, on average. Just 23 (47%) top sites are formally recognized for their international importance for Black-tailed Godwits, and 33 (67%) were robust to sampling incompleteness. Across all 1058 sites, 20% lacked protected area coverage, and per site, 44% (44% ± SD) of bird relocations fell within protected areas. Integrating multiple sources of data improved geographical coverage and completeness of the site network, allowing us to quantify the importance of sites in terms of connectivity across the flyway. Our results highlight shortcomings of existing area-based conservation measures and add value to ongoing efforts to identify important sites for migratory birds. Policy implications . The increasing availability of individual movement data provides valuable opportunities to reveal the inter-dependence of sites used by migratory species, which can help identify priority areas and facilitate flyway-scale management.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Climate change vulnerability assessment for Pacific Lamprey in rivers of the Western United States

Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) are a native anadromous species that, like salmon, historically returned to spawn in large numbers in watersheds along the west coast of the United States (U.S.). Lamprey play a vital role in river ecosystems and are one of the oldest vertebrates that have persisted over time likely influencing the evolution of many aquatic species. Pacific Lamprey have declined in abundance and are restricted in distribution throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. A key uncertainty influencing Pacific Lamprey status is the impact of climate change. We modified the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to accommodate climate predictions from the International Panel on Climate Change. Using downscaled information, we characterized changes in 15 rivers occupied by Pacific Lamprey in the western U.S. We evaluated this risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for two time periods (mid-century 2040–2069 and end-century 2070–2099). The CCVI scores generally increased when going from RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5 in three Global Climate Models for both mid-century and end-century, which our analyses forecasts degraded stream temperature and hydrologic conditions under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The geographically assessed results suggest that climate change impacts to Pacific Lamprey vulnerability are magnified in highly altered rivers. If we continue to observe greenhouse gas emission levels associated with the RCP 8.5, Pacific Lamprey will be at greater risk to climate change impacts. In order to mitigate the risk from climate change toward the end of the century, additional actions will need to be prioritized to rapidly reduce the impact of these threats such as increasing flow, creating backwater habitat, restoring riparian vegetation and reducing stream disturbances. The findings revealed the patterns of vulnerability for Pacific Lamprey across their U.S. range are informative for prioritizing river restoration actions when paired with regional implementation plans.

California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho