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770 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Monitoring and assessment of urban stormwater best management practices at selected Chicago public schools in Chicago, Illinois, from September 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017

The Space to Grow program helps transform aging and neglected schoolyards of Chicago Public Schools into outdoor community spaces with the goal of promoting health and learning while addressing neighborhood flooding issues. Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School and Donald L. Morrill Math and Science School were selected in 2014 for schoolyard upgrades and the installation of various green infrastructure (GI) improvements. The U.S. Geological Survey installed sensors to measure precipitation, groundwater levels, and stormwater runoff volumes from September 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017. At Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School, about 933,000 gallons of water fell on the schoolyard during the monitoring period. No discharge was recorded coming from the GI sewer lines, but backflow indicated water was flowing from the sewer line draining the impervious running track into the combined manhole structure and backwards into the GI retention basins (as designed). This design allowed for a 100-percent capture rate. Native soil at Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School also was conducive to rapid infiltration. Soil borings at Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School indicated about 10.5 feet (ft) of fine sand overlying silty clay to a depth of at least 16 ft. At Donald L. Morrill Math and Science School, about 1,120,000 gallons of water fell on the schoolyard during the monitoring period. About 72.5 precent of this water was discharged into the sewer system, and the other 27.5 percent was captured by the GI. Unlike Virgil I. Grissom Elementary School, the soil profile at Donald L. Morrill Math and Science School consisted of about 5 ft of clay loam overlying stiff blue clay to a depth of at least 12 ft. The sewer line coming from the GI under the football field was at the bottom of the reservoir. This design seemed to allow water to flow out of the line before being absorbed by the retention basin.

Illinois↗
USGS2026

Ground motions from finite faults with unknown geometry

Earthquake emergency response and loss modeling require accurate models of ground‐motion intensity metrics (IMs), such as those produced by ShakeMap. In the critical minutes and hours after an earthquake, however, knowledge of the earthquake source geometry limits the accuracy of these models, especially in areas where seismic instrumentation is insufficient to constrain the shaking intensity pattern. Previous attempts to overcome this limitation have centered on computing the mean distance metrics from a suite of assumed source geometries. That approach is inadequate with modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) because they typically include terms for the hanging wall effect, depth to top of rupture, and other nonlinear terms. Such approaches also propagate the distance uncertainty through the GMMs and may not properly allocate the additional uncertainty into the between‐ and within‐event components. Here we present Finite‐Fault SIMulation with Mixed Effects Regression (FFSIMMER), a method to address these limitations by computing IM distributions from a suite of rupture realizations that fully accounts for all geometry‐related GMM terms and allows for the separation of the between‐ and within‐event components of the total uncertainty. The accuracy of this method is limited by the available constraints on the source parameters. To address this, FFSIMMER can incorporate constraints based on knowledge of the source, such as the approximate strike and dip based on knowledge of the plate tectonics and focal mechanism of the earthquake. We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy that can be achieved with the 2025 M 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake by incorporating constraints on the range of plausible source parameters.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Generalized Bancroft algorithm for locating earthquakes with P- and S-wave arrival times

Because of similarities between locating an earthquake with seismic stations and locating a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver from satellites, the Bancroft algorithm developed for GPS processing can be used to locate earthquakes. Such an approach to earthquake location differs from the conventional method of choosing an initial or trial solution and then iteratively improving the solution until convergence. The Bancroft algorithm has the advantage of being a direct, noniterative solution but with the disadvantage of only being able to accommodate a homogeneous velocity model. An additional limitation of the standard Bancroft algorithm is that it considers arrival times in a medium with a single propagation velocity. This poses no problem for GPS processing because electromagnetic waves travel at the speed of light; however, for seismic waves it means the algorithm can be applied to collections of either P ‐ or S ‐wave arrival times. Here, I show how the Bancroft algorithm can be generalized to handle both P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time measurements simultaneously. I also show how to accommodate depth‐varying P ‐ and S ‐wave velocity models. I apply the generalized Bancroft algorithm to microearthquakes beneath Tanaga Volcano in Alaska and compare standard locations from the widely used HYPOINVERSE location code to Bancroft locations and to the output of HYPOINVERSE when setting the trial location to the Bancroft location. I find the Bancroft locations outperform the results from the other methods for shallow earthquakes near sea level, where a quantity known as the geometric dilution of precision is large and linearized approaches such as HYPOINVERSE are expected to struggle.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Site response in the Walnut Creek–Concord region of the San Francisco Bay, California: Ground motion amplification in a fault-bounded basin

Thirty‐seven portable accelerometers were deployed in the eastern San Francisco Bay communities of Walnut Creek and Concord to study site response in a fault‐bounded, urban, sedimentary basin. Local earthquakes were recorded for a period of two years from 2017 to 2019 resulting in 101 well‐recorded events. Site response is estimated by two methods: the reference site spectral ratio method and a source‐site spectral inversion method. The reference site spectral ratio method allows investigation of the variability of site amplification with source azimuth and frequency. The source‐site spectral inversion method yields the best least‐squares fit to site response for a database of ground‐motion records. Both methods show substantial amplification in the Walnut Creek–Concord basin below 2 Hz indicating strong surface‐wave development. Greater amplification is seen for sources aligned along the long axis of the basin. Inversion using close‐in sources at short distances yields lower amplification at longer periods than the entire data set due to reduced surface‐wave generation for steeper angles of incidence. Inversion of site response spectra for shallow shear‐wave velocity using a global search algorithm yields V S30 values consistent with generalized mapping results based on geology and topography but with greater variability due to local site variations. 3D finite‐element modeling shows greater amplification in the Walnut Creek–Concord basin with a basin‐edge effect likely contributing to higher ground motions. Topography is also seen to lead to increased scattering and shadowing effects.

California↗
USGS2025

High frequency and region-scale simulations of large (Mw7+) earthquakes on the southern Whidbey Island fault, Washington, USA

We simulate ground shaking in western Washington State from hypothetical M w 7.0–7.5 earthquakes on the southern Whidbey Island fault (SWIF). Ground motions are modeled considering kinematic source distributions on a complex fault plane, a 3D seismic velocity model, and region‐specific soil velocity models. We run simulations with varying model resolutions, including regional‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼1 Hz and local‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼2.5 Hz. Additional local‐scale simulations are run considering high‐resolution surface topography. We explore how source parameters (i.e., magnitude, hypocenter location, and dip direction) and 3D velocity structure impact peak shaking intensity and its variability. In particular, we find that earthquakes on the SWIF would likely produce strong shaking throughout the populated Puget Lowland, including in the cities of Everett, Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma, Washington. Simulated short‐period ( T ≤ 2 s) spectral accelerations are strong throughout the Puget Lowland, and long‐period shaking ( T ≥ 5 s) is strong in the deep regional sedimentary basins, especially the Everett and Seattle basins. Source parameters strongly influence intra‐ and interevent variability in response, primarily through changes in source and site geometry, as well as rupture directivity. We also note a potential coupling between rupture directivity and basin effects, wherein directivity pulses are seemingly guided through the region’s deep, interconnected sedimentary basins. Overall, this work highlights the impacts of 3D source, path, and site effects on seismic hazard in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and substantially expands the catalog of simulated ground motions for Puget Sound area crustal faults.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Relationship between peak and cumulative ground motions from 49 Mw 3-6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

We examine the relationship between peak ground velocity (PGV) and cumulative absolute displacement (CAD) for 49 M w 3 – 6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and gain insight into the spatiotemporal partitioning of seismic energy in ground motion records with respect to source, path, and site effects. PGV and CAD are positively correlated, but there can be large deviations from the average trend. For example, ground motion records with either very long duration resonance or short pulse-like motions will have higher or lower CAD, respectively, but could have very similar PGV. We perform principal component analysis (PCA) on PGV-CAD for >7000 records in the SFBA with the goal of investigating what influences positive or negative anomalies in cumulative motions. PCA rotates the PGV-CAD datapoints into two principal components, where the one with the larger variance, which we call the “primary intensity” represents mostly the distance-dependence of ground motion amplitudes. The other principal component, which we call the “excess motion”, represents the deviation from cumulative motions that would be typical for a ground motion record with a given PGV. The excess motion will be positive in the case of records with long duration ringing and will be negative for short duration pulse-like ground motions. We find that excess motion is generally positive at sites in sedimentary basins and in soft sediments around the SF Bay. Excess motion is generally negative in the very near field, as well as at sites on hard bedrock. We discuss the findings here in terms of implications for seismic hazard applications and other wave propagation phenomena.

California↗
USGS2026

Rupture into slow-slip fault regime during the 2018 Mw 6.9 Island of Hawaiʻi earthquake is followed by modest postseismic slip

On 4 May 2018, a M w 6.9 earthquake occurred on the south flank of Kīlauea, in the midst of an historic event that included a voluminous eruption from Kīlauea’s lower East Rift zone and caldera collapse at its summit. The earthquake was a consequence of both short‐ and long‐term stress buildup due to magmatic activity associated with the eruption and steady flank motion, respectively, and it revealed features of Kīlauea’s décollement fault that can inform understanding of future earthquake activity. We used geodetic data to determine the distributions of slip during the coseismic and postseismic periods and compared these with areas of known fault slip during past earthquakes and slow‐slip events (SSEs). The 2018 earthquake ruptured into an area of the décollement fault that was active during quasi‐regular SSEs that occurred in the two decades prior to 2018 but that have not been observed since. The coseismic slip model indicates that the amount of motion on the décollement fault was several times greater than what typically occurred during SSEs, suggesting that it may take decades for the fault to rebuild stress to the point at which SSEs will occur again. Postseismic afterslip also occurred in an area of the fault known to experience slow slip; however, unlike at other creeping faults, postseismic afterslip was rapid, being largely over within 2–3 days. The rapid nature and small magnitude of the postseismic afterslip may be due to the lack of a viscoelastic relaxation component, which is possibly a result of the shallow dip of the décollement fault not transferring stress efficiently into the lower crust.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Comparative crop yield forecasting using satellite-derived biophysical and agro-climatic predictors in Sub-Saharan Africa

Timely and accurate crop yield forecasting is central to food security early warning systems, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions. While operational forecasting frameworks commonly rely on precipitation and vegetation indices such as NDVI, their ability to provide actionable lead time remains limited. Here, we evaluate the added value of satellite-derived biophysical Essential Climate Variables (ECVs): Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), for forecasting millet yield in Burkina Faso (BF) and maize yield in South Africa (ZA) and Malawi (MW). Using Random Forest models, we quantify forecast skill across the growing season at both national and sub-national scales. Results show that LAI and FAPAR provide effective forecast lead times of approximately 4 months in BF, 2 months in ZA, and up to 6 months in MW relative to harvest. At peak performance, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reaches 19.8% (LAI) and 23.8% (FAPAR) in BF, 12.0% and 9.8% in ZA, and 21.8% and 20.8% in MW, respectively. Across countries, biophysical parameters often outperform NDVI and precipitation, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. At the sub-national level, LAI and FAPAR enable classification of administrative units into high and moderate-skill forecast units, revealing strong spatial heterogeneity linked to crop dominance. However, forecast skill declines where the target crop is not the dominant type, highlighting an important limitation for operational deployment. Overall, the findings suggest that satellite-derived biophysical parameters can provide earlier and more spatially resolved yield signals than commonly used predictors, with potential to improve the timeliness and effectiveness of food security early warning systems.

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environme↗
USGS2024

StreamStats—A quarter century of delivering web-based geospatial and hydrologic information to the public, and lessons learned

StreamStats is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) web application that provides streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability peak flow, the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, to the public through a map-based user interface. These statistics are used in many ways, such as in the design of roads, bridges, and other structures; in delineation of floodplains for land-use zoning and setting of insurance rates; for regulatory purposes, such as the permitting of wastewater discharges; and for hydrologic and climate change studies. StreamStats was first developed for Massachusetts and released in 2001. The application provided users with the ability to obtain streamflow statistics computed from data collected at USGS streamgages and to obtain estimates of streamflow statistics for user-selected ungaged sites. Massachusetts StreamStats used geographic information system software and digital mapping to compute drainage-basin characteristics, which were then used in statistical models to estimate streamflow statistics for the user-selected sites. The statistical models were in the form of equations that were developed through a process known as regression analysis. StreamStats was the first known web application with the ability to do interactive geoprocessing. The utility of Massachusetts StreamStats was instantly apparent, leading the USGS to develop a version of StreamStats that could be implemented nationally. USGS State offices normally were required to develop custom regression equations and prepare local digital mapping data needed for implementing StreamStats for their States. Funding needed to complete this work usually was provided through cooperative agreements between the USGS and State agencies. In 2004, Idaho became the first to be released in the national version of StreamStats. By 2023, 44 States were fully implemented and six were undergoing implementation. StreamStats has undergone many modifications over the years to keep up with changes to the underlying software and to add functionality. Customized functionality and separate linked StreamStats applications were developed for several States. Meeting the high demand for additions and improvements to StreamStats while also adhering to budgetary constraints has, at times, been challenging. The StreamStats development team has identified numerous additional improvements that could be made to provide better performance and more functionality. The lessons learned from the experience of building and operating StreamStats for nearly 25 years could be relevant to others interested in pursuing efforts of a similar scale.

Circular↗
USGS2024

Static and dynamic strain in the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake

During the 1886 Mw 7.3 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake, three railroads emanating from the city were exposed to severe shaking. Expansion joints in segmented railroad tracks are designed to allow railroad infrastructure to withstand a few parts in 10,000 of thermoelastic strain. We show that, in 1886, transient contractions exceeding this limiting value buckled rails, and transient extensions pulled rails apart. Calculated values for dynamic strain in the meizoseismal region are in reasonable agreement with those anticipated from the relation between strain and moment magnitude proposed by Barbour et al. (2021) and exceed estimated tectonic strain released by the earthquake by an order of magnitude. Almost all of the documented disturbances of railroad lines, including evidence for shortening of the rails, can thus be ascribed to the effects of dynamic strain changes, not static strain. Little or no damage to railroads was reported outside the estimated 10 −4 dynamic strain contour. The correspondence between 10 −3 and 2×10 −4 contours of dynamic strain and Mercalli intensity 9 and 8, anticipated from the dependence of each quantity on peak ground velocity, suggests it may be possible to use railroad damage to quantitatively estimate shaking intensity. At one location, near Rantowles, ≈20 km west of Charleston, a photograph of buckled track taken one day after the earthquake has been cited as evidence for shallow dextral slip and has long focused a search for a causal fault in this region. Photogrammetric analysis reveals that the buckle was caused by transient contraction of <10 cm with no dextral offset. Our results further weaken the evidence for faulting in the swamps and forests south of the Ashley River in 1886, hitherto motivated by the photograph and limited macroseismic evidence for high‐intensity shaking.

South Carolina↗
USGS2025

Do Graviquakes exist?

The “Graviquake” model, proposed in 2015 as an alternative to the elastic dislocation model, posits that normal faults are passive features dominated by coseismic gravitational collapse into a dilated crustal wedge, and that normal faulting is fundamentally distinct from strike‐slip and reverse faulting. Developed using finite‐element modeling before the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence, the model was revamped based on interpreted Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data from these events and used as evidence for a gravitational collapse episode. However, this interpretation relies on miscalculated elevation changes and is not corroborated by independent geophysical and seismological observations. Our analysis exposes fundamental flaws in the Graviquake model. By assuming that faults are passive players, it underrepresents the dynamic role of strain accumulation and release in rocks adjacent to faults. The hypothesized rapid expulsion of overpressurized fluids appears inconsistent with observed diffusion rates and lacks supporting seismological evidence. Part of the uplifted–subsided volume imbalance is likely an artifact arising from data processing, and in part is a transient effect due to the delayed response of the lower crust. Moment tensor analyses detect no isotropic components indicative of gravitational collapse, and observed ground motion and stress‐drop levels remain fully consistent with elastic dislocation theory. In addition, finite‐element modeling of normal faulting replicates observed surface deformation without invoking a collapsing wedge. The Graviquake model proposes a representation of normal‐faulting mechanics that differs significantly from established models and observations. Gravity does play a role in normal faulting, but the elastic dislocation theory remains the definitive framework of fault mechanics. Reinterpreting the 2016 earthquakes as a cascade of gravitational episodes, based on incorrect data processing and modeling, fails to substantiate the Graviquake hypothesis. Persistence in advocating this model could mislead seismic hazard assessment and undermine our understanding of normal faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Stress states on the eve of past earthquakes inform earthquake rupture through fault complexity along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults

Estimating the evolving state of stress along active fault systems can provide insight into the conditions that generated past ground‐rupturing earthquakes and influenced their ability to propagate through areas of geometric complexity, such as fault branches and stepovers. We use quasi‐static forward numerical models that incorporate the 3D complex configuration of active faults in southern California to estimate shear tractions on the geometrically complex southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults from 1000 to 1900 C.E. These tractions include interseismic accumulation of traction due to tectonic loading, viscoelastic relaxation of shear stress within the upper crust between earthquakes, and effects of other earthquakes on the fault network. We simulate ground‐rupturing earthquakes based on the along‐strike earthquake extents modeled by Scharer and Yule (2020) , assuming that stress drop is complete in each earthquake. We use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate uncertainty in evolving shear tractions due to uncertainties in earthquake timing and in upper‐crustal viscosity. Pre‐earthquake shear tractions typically do not exceed ∼2 MPa. Although ruptures with length <200 km have pre‐earthquake shear tractions that range from near zero to ∼1.75 MPa, these tractions are not less than ∼0.4 MPa for earthquakes with rupture length >200 km. Earthquakes with long (>200 km) ruptures occur only in the single‐stranded part of the system, whereas those with short (<125 km) rupture length and high pre‐earthquake shear traction occur near fault stepovers and branches. This suggests that high accumulated shear traction encourages longer rupture propagation, but may not be sufficient to overcome geometric complexities. This modeling approach informs our understanding of rupture propagation and provides estimates of fault shear tractions that are unavailable from direct measurements.

Callifornia↗
USGS2024

Extending the Boore and Abrahamson (2023) modified square-root-impedance method for the development of site amplifications consistent with the full-resonance approach to a range of VS30 values

The square-root-impedance (SRI) method is commonly used to approximate the seismic site amplifications computed using the full-resonance (FR) method for gradient shear-wave velocity ( V S ) profiles that are smoothly varying with depth. The SRI site amplifications have been observed to systematically underpredict the FR site amplifications by a ratio of FR/SRI amplifications around 1.05 to 1.3 across a wide frequency range (Boore, 2013). Recently, Boore and Abrahamson (2023; hereafter, BA23) related this difference in the SRI and FR methods to differences in the exponent η of the ratio of seismic impedances between the two methods. They proposed the implementation of a modified frequency-dependent η in the SRI method to improve its match to the FR site amplifications. This modified η was derived using only five V S profiles. We investigate the performance of the BA23 η for a wide range of realistic gradient V S profiles with V S30 ranging from 180 to 1500 m/s. These gradient V S profiles are constructed using two power-law functions of depth and are constrained by the assigned VS30 value, the depth and velocity of the half-space, and depths to shear-wave velocity horizons of 1.0 and 2.5 km/s ( Z 1.0 and Z 2.5 ) based on western United States sites. Despite observing a V S30 dependence of η, we find that the BA23 η generally works reasonably well for the range of V S profiles analyzed. Using the VS30 -dependent η derived in this study results in improvements in matching the FR site amplification compared to using the BA23 η. These improvements are more pronounced for the soft-site conditions and become modest to negligible for the stiff site conditions

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

Regreening, restoring, and reconnecting a southwestern wetland ecosystem – the Zeedyk wetland

Alluvial wetland ecosystems are vital as biodiversity hotspots but are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stressors and drought. These pressures are especially acute in arid and semi-arid regions, where eco-hydrologic connectivity is fragile and recovery is slow. This study quantifies the efficacy of nature-based solutions, particularly the ‘Zeedyk approach,’ which employs low-tech Natural Infrastructure in Dryland Streams (NIDS)—including rock detention structures—to slow surface water, raise groundwater tables, and restore wetland function at a spring-fed wetland in Cebolla Canyon, New Mexico, U.S.A. Our results depict a Restoration Feedback Loop that captures stages of change from a healthy wetland in 1935, altered by 20th-century agriculture and grazing, to the re-establishment of the historical flow regime by 2024 documented through an 89-year archive of aerial imagery (1935–2024). By the end of our study period, the Spring-Fed Wetland had expanded by roughly 229% of the original 1935 area, to 4.13 ha. Using 40 years of satellite data, we assess changes in vegetation and hydrology with remote sensing indices. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal significant increases in vegetation greenness and wetness, particularly in an Expanded Wetland subregion, which exhibited ∼3.5x higher wetness and ∼1.5x higher greenness trends compared to adjacent areas. Monthly metrics highlight seasonal variability, with increases in greenness linked to monsoonal rainfall and lateral water redistribution, indicating that restoration impacts extend beyond the primary wetland. This study demonstrates the utility of cloud-based platforms like Google Earth Engine and USGS EarthExplorer for long-term monitoring of wetland restoration, while quantifying the efficacy of the ‘Zeedyk approach’ and demonstrating its potential as a scalable method to restore and conserve wetland meadows in other arid and semi-arid landscapes.

New Mexico↗
USGS2025

Site response and wave propagation effects in the eastern United States

Fourier amplitude spectra from regional earthquakes in the eastern United States are used in a parametric inversion for source, path, and site effects. Five earthquakes are selected for analysis during the installation of the United States National Seismic Network (US), Earthscope’s USArray Transportable Array (TA), and other temporary arrays to maximize station coverage. A global search algorithm is used to solve for site response from 0.1 to 15 Hz, corner frequency, geometrical spreading ( r - γ ), and frequency dependent anelastic attenuation in the form Q(f) = Q o f α . Tradeoff between moment and geometric spreading is handled by fixing the moment. The tradeoff between corner frequency and Q(f) is solved by selecting the value of corner frequency that minimizes an objective function defined over all stations. Values of site response and attenuation parameters show a strong spatial correlation with the physiographic provinces of the eastern United States. Site response for the Atlantic Coastal Plain is consistent with previous work using spectral ratios relative to a reference site, defined by strong resonance peaks correlated with the thickness of sediments. Site response for the other physiographic provinces is markedly different from the coastal plain, with a lack of distinct resonance peaks and a broad moderate high at frequences from 0.1 to 0.5 Hz consistent with the hard-rock geology of the regions. Like site response, Q(f) has a strong correlation with physiographic province, showing lower values on the coastal plain and higher values inland. Geometric spreading exponent, γ, decreases with increasing hypocenter distance from just above 1 at a few tens of kilometers to 0.9 at 500 km. The limited range in geometric spreading values is attributed to starting the Fourier transform window at the S ‐wave arrival for all distances and averaging over multiple wave types.

eastern United States↗
USGS2024

Are the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of earthquakes and microtremors the same?

We consider the similarities and differences between earthquake and microtremor horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (eHVSR and mHVSR, respectively) using a dataset of 161 sites in southern California. Quantitative comparisons are made in terms of the eHVSR and mHVSR lognormal median curves, as well as the frequencies and amplitudes associated with the fundamental‐ and higher‐mode resonances where present. The results show only 58% of the eHVSR–mHVSR pairs agree in terms of their median curve and only 25% of the eHVSR–mHVSR pairs agree in terms of shared resonances, which increases to 68% if flat HVSRs are considered equivalent. Furthermore, while the shared resonances match very well in terms of frequency (root mean square error, RMSE, <0.11 Hz), the amplitudes of those resonances do not agree (RMSE >1.6). These findings demonstrate that while eHVSR and mHVSR agree at some sites, they are not equivalent at all sites. To investigate if the agreement between eHVSR and mHVSR could be related to features of the microtremor data, earthquake recordings, and/or the site conditions, three machine learning (ML) models at varying levels of interpretability are presented. The ML models—which include multivariate logistic regression, gradient‐boosted trees, and support vector machines—show only partial success at using site‐specific data to predict whether eHVSR and mHVSR will likely agree in terms of their median curve (accuracy of 78%) and number of resonances (accuracy of 84%). Therefore, we conclude that while eHVSR and mHVSR can be quite similar in terms of resonant frequencies at some sites, they are not identical at all sites. Furthermore, preliminary evidence shows that the agreement of eHVSR and mHVSR can be predicted a priori given features of the microtremor measurements, earthquake recordings, and site conditions, although a larger dataset will be necessary for developing a robust predictive model.

California↗
USGS2026

Simulation-based scenario ShakeMaps for large magnitude (MW6.5+) crustal earthquakes on the Seattle, Tacoma, and southern Whidbey Island faults, Washington, USA

Scenario ground‐motion maps based on empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) provide a rapid and generally reliable means of estimating the amplitude and distribution of earthquake shaking. However, because GMMs are designed for broad applicability, they often rely on simplified representations of Earth structure, which can limit their accuracy in regions with complex source, path, and site effects. This can substantially impact the accuracy of predicted shaking in areas like western Washington State, where deep, interconnected basin structure exerts a strong influence on seismic‐wave propagation. In this study, we present a new suite of simulation‐based scenario ShakeMaps that characterize ground shaking from large‐magnitude ( ⁠ M W 6.5–7.5) earthquakes on the Seattle, Tacoma, and southern Whidbey Island faults. These maps are developed using results from recent 3D wave propagation simulations ( Stone et al. , 2022 , 2023 , 2025 ) that incorporate realistic rupture geometries, variable slip distributions, and a regional 3D seismic velocity model with shallow soils. Broadband ground motions are estimated by combining the low‐frequency (<1 Hz) deterministic seismograms from these studies with high‐frequency (1–10 Hz) stochastic seismograms. Simulated ground motions are corrected to account for the enforced minimum shear‐wave velocity and nonlinear site response. The resulting ShakeMaps represent median ground‐shaking estimates derived from multiple rupture scenarios with varying slip distributions and hypocenter locations for each fault. To extend ShakeMap coverage beyond the simulation domain (i.e., into eastern Washington, northern Oregon, and southwestern British Columbia), we scale GMM‐based ground‐motion estimates using amplification patterns observed in the simulations. These new ShakeMaps reveal the substantial influence of deep basin structure on shaking intensity, underscoring the importance of considering crustal structure complexity in regional hazard assessments for the Pacific Northwest.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Origin and evolution of mafic volcanism associated with 3 m.y. of andesite production at the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster, southern Washington Cascade Range

More than 3 m.y. of mafic volcanism near the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster in the southern Washington Cascade Range, USA, lends insight into the evolution of basalts and the subarc mantle at a long-lived, major arc volcanic locus. We contribute field observations, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates, paleomagnetic directions, and bulk rock and mineral compositions to characterize nine mafic units that erupted in association with the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster. The time frame of mafic volcanism, ca. 3.6 Ma to 60 ka, encompasses the lifespan of the central volcanic cluster (3.1 Ma to 115 ka), with a lull from ca. 2.7 Ma to 1.4 Ma. A climactic period of voluminous mafic activity and far-traveled lava flows, including construction of the Hogback Mountain shield volcano, coincided with voluminous andesite eruptions from the central volcanic cluster. The basaltic rocks in the Goat Rocks area are calc-alkaline to barely tholeiitic and have high field strength element depletion relative to large-ion lithophile elements characteristic of calc-alkaline basalts (CAB) of the Cascade volcanic arc. Unlike at neighboring andesitic volcanic centers (Mounts Adams, St. Helens, and Rainier), no other mafic end members such as high-aluminum olivine tholeiite (HAOT) or intraplate-type basalt (IPB) are present at or near the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster, although some of the calc-alkaline basalts in this study have IPB-like affinities. The Goat Rocks mafic units exhibit two main temporal trends in composition: (1) the most primitive basalts erupted earlier, compared to less primitive and more evolved compositions later, and (2) high field strength element concentrations are higher in the younger basalt units relative to the oldest two. In contrast to these temporal trends, the mafic units define two compositional groups that recur through time, a low-Sr and a high-Sr group, each with distinct trace element and Sr and Nd isotope ratios. Although radiogenic isotope ratios are generally aligned with High Cascades CAB and HAOT, some extend toward IPB of Mount Adams and Simcoe Mountains volcanic field. Olivine-dominated crystal fractionation at shallow pressure from a small range of parent magma compositions accounts for much of the variation among the basalts and basaltic andesites. A high-pressure fractionation model is plausible for only one of the youngest basalt units (basalt of Walupt Lake volcano). Mafic recharge and crustal assimilation accounts for the incompatible-element enriched composition of basaltic andesites erupted during construction of the largest andesitic centers, further supporting sustained basalt mass flux and thermal energy driving andesite genesis. We model the most primitive members of the Goat Rocks mafic units as partial melts of successively less depleted mantle in time. Variable degrees of fluxing with fluids and melts from subduction explain the distinction between high-Sr and low-Sr groups. We propose that mantle metasomatism by ancestral subduction and fluid-flux melting is heterogeneously distributed through the local subarc mantle and played a greater role in the genesis of the high-Sr basalt group. The limited range of primitive basalt types around the Goat Rocks volcanic cluster contrasts with the much greater diversity of basalts throughout the southern Washington to northern Oregon Cascade arc. On the other hand, the central volcanic cluster encompasses nearly the entire diversity observed at neighboring composite volcanoes. In the case of the Goat Rocks area at least, and perhaps attributable to the entire region, this means that the genesis of diverse intermediate magmas is independent from and does not require vastly different parental basalt compositions.

California, Oregon, Washington↗