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USGS2006

Modeling habitat distribution from organism occurrences and environmental data: Case study using anemonefishes and their sea anemone hosts

We demonstrate the KGSMapper (Kansas Geological Survey Mapper), a straightforward, web-based biogeographic tool that uses environmental conditions of places where members of a taxon are known to occur to find other places containing suitable habitat for them. Using occurrence data for anemonefishes or their host sea anemones, and data for environmental parameters, we generated maps of suitable habitat for the organisms. The fact that the fishes are obligate symbionts of the anemones allowed us to validate the KGSMapper output: we were able to compare the inferred occurrence of the organism to that of the actual occurrence of its symbiont. Characterizing suitable habitat for these organisms in the Indo-West Pacific, the region where they naturally occur, can be used to guide conservation efforts, field work, etc.; defining suitable habitat for them in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is relevant to identifying areas vulnerable to biological invasions. We advocate distinguishing between these 2 sorts of model output, terming the former maps of realized habitat and the latter maps of potential habitat. Creation of a niche model requires adding biotic data to the environmental data used for habitat maps: we included data on fish occurrences to infer anemone distribution and vice versa. Altering the selection of environmental variables allowed us to investigate which variables may exert the most influence on organism distribution. Adding variables does not necessarily improve precision of the model output. KGSMapper output distinguishes areas that fall within 1 standard deviation (SD) of the mean environmental variable values for places where members of the taxon occur, within 2 SD, and within the entire range of values; eliminating outliers or data known to be imprecise or inaccurate improved output precision mainly in the 2 SD range and beyond. Thus, KGSMapper is robust in the face of questionable data, offering the user a way to recognize and clean such data. It also functions well with sparse datasets. These features make it useful for biogeographic meta-analyses with the diverse, distributed datasets that are typical for marine organisms lacking direct commercial value. ?? Inter-Research 2006.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS1988

Map of fault scarps formed in unconsolidated sediments, Tooele 1 degree by 2 degrees quadrangle, northwestern Utah

This report is one of a series of studies of western Utah (Anderson and Bucknam, 1979; Bucknam and Anderson, 1979b), eastern Nevada (Barnhard, 1985), and central Nevada (Wallace, 1979) that shows the distribution, relative age, and amount and extent of surface rupture on Quaternary fault scarps. Previous paleoseismicity studies in the Tooele 1°x2° quadrangle include reports by Gilbert (1928), Bucknam (1977), Anderson and Miller (1980), Bucknam and others (1980), and Everitt and Kaliser (1980). Geologic and geophysical data pertinent to paleoseismicity of the Tooele 1°x2° quadrangle can be found in reports by Mikulich and Smith (1974), Cook and others (1980), Smith and Bruhn (1984), and Arabasz and others (1987). The present study is a continuation of mapping fault scarps in 1°x2° quadrangles in the Basin and Range province; the purpose is to determine the youngest surface-faulting age and distribution of fault scarps for earthquake-hazards analysis. The accompanying map shows 10 areas containing late Quaternary fault scarps formed on unconsolidated sediments in the Tooele 1°x2° quadrangle, northwestern Utah. The faulted sediments include sandy, pebbly, to bouldery colluvium, alluvium, and lacustrine deposits. They are inferred to have been deposited in Quaternary time during the latest phase of basin-filling sedimentation. Because the map shows only scarps on unconsolidated sediments, it does not show all faults that could produce earthquakes. A comprehensive map of all Quaternary faults would also include those in bedrock and at the contact of bedrock and alluvium, as well as Quaternary faults that appear only as lineaments in surficial deposits. Initial study involved photointerpretation of high-quality 1:60,000-scale black and white aerial photographs of the map area; offsets as small as 1 m could be detected from these photos if the faults cut planar surfaces of considerable extent. A map of suspected fault scarps, identified from the photointerpretation, was compiled at a scale of 1:250,000 and served as a guide for subsequent field studies in conjunction with a similar map from Bucknam (1977). We have chosen not to connect discontinuous segments of aligned fault scarps unless there is compelling evidence of continuous surface rupture. Field studies consisted of (1) confirming scarps as fault related and deleting from the preliminary map those features that were not fault related or that had no surface offset (lineaments), (2) searching for stratigraphic indicators of amount and age of offset, and (3) measuring surface profiles according to procedures described in Bucknam and Anderson (1979a). We profiled selected fault scarps where they were sufficiently continuous and unmodified by fluvial deposition or erosion. In the early morning or late afternoon when the sun was at 1ow angles, additional field searches were made for scarps resulting from ground ruptures that had not been identified during the photo interpretation phase of the study. No additional scarps were found. Techniques that yield the relative age of fault scarps can be used as a guide to the frequency and location of relatively large earthquakes. For large regions, geologically determined rates of seismic activity in the Basin and Range province are generally in good agreement with rates determined from historic seismicity (Bucknam and Algermissen, 1984). Fault-scarp studies such as this have been used as a guide in locating boundaries of seismic source zones used in probabilistic earthquake hazard estimates of the Basin and Range province (Thenhaus and Wentworth, 1982; Bucknam and Thenhaus, 1983). We will first discuss the geologic setting of the map area and attributes of fault-scarp morphology, and then discuss the individual fault zones.

Utah↗

USGS2008

Geologic map of Mount Mazama and Crater Lake Caldera, Oregon, including the database for the geologic map of Mount Mazama and Crater Lake Caldera, Oregon

Crater Lake partly fills one of the most spectacular calderas of the world, an 8-by-10-km basin more than 1 km deep formed by collapse of the volcano known as Mount Mazama (fig. 1) during a rapid series of explosive eruptions about 7,700 years ago. Having a maximum depth of 594 m, Crater Lake is the deepest lake in the United States. Crater Lake National Park, dedicated in 1902, encompasses 645 km2 of pristine forested and alpine terrain, including the lake itself, virtually all of Mount Mazama, and most of the area of the geologic map. The geology of the area was first described in detail by Diller and Patton (1902) and later by Williams (1942), whose vivid account led to international recognition of Crater Lake as the classic collapse caldera. Because of excellent preservation and access, Mount Mazama, Crater Lake caldera, and the deposits formed by the climactic eruption constitute a natural laboratory for study of volcanic and magmatic processes. For example, the climactic ejecta are renowned among volcanologists as evidence for systematic compositional zonation within a subterranean magma chamber. Mount Mazama's climactic eruption also is important as the source of the widespread Mazama ash, a useful Holocene stratigraphic marker throughout the Pacific Northwest, adjacent Canada, and offshore. A detailed bathymetric survey of the floor of Crater Lake in 2000 (Bacon and others, 2002) provides a unique record of postcaldera eruptions, the interplay between volcanism and filling of the lake, and sediment transport within this closed basin. Knowledge of the geology and eruptive history of the Mount Mazama edifice, greatly enhanced by the caldera wall exposures, gives exceptional insight into how large volcanoes of magmatic arcs grow and evolve. Lastly, the many smaller volcanoes of the High Cascades beyond the limits of Mount Mazama are a source of information on the flux of mantle-derived magma through the region. General principles of magmatic and eruptive processes revealed by the present study have been incorporated not only in scientific investigations elsewhere, but in the practical evaluation of hazards (Bacon and others, 1997b) and geothermal resources (Bacon and Nathenson, 1996) in the Crater Lake region. In addition to papers in scientific journals, field trip guides, and the hazard and geothermal reports, the major product of this long-term study of Mount Mazama is the geologic map. The map is unusual because it portrays bedrock (outcrop), surficial, and lake floor geology. Caldera wall geology is depicted in detail on the accompanying geologic panoramas.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Geomorphic evolution of the San Luis Basin and Rio Grande in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico

The San Luis Basin encompasses the largest structural and hydrologic basin of the Rio Grande rift. On this field trip, we will examine the timing of transition of the San Luis Basin from hydrologically closed, aggrading subbasins to a continuous fluvial system that eroded the basin, formed the Rio Grande gorge, and ultimately, integrated the Rio Grande from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico. Waning Pleistocene neotectonic activity and onset of major glacial episodes, in particular Marine Isotope Stages 11–2 (~420–14 ka), induced basin fill, spillover, and erosion of the southern San Luis Basin. The combined use of new geologic mapping, fluvial geomorphology, reinterpreted surficial geology of the Taos Plateau, pedogenic relative dating studies, 3 He surface exposure dating of basalts, and U-series dating of pedogenic carbonate supports a sequence of events wherein pluvial Lake Alamosa in the northern San Luis Basin overflowed, and began to drain to the south across the closed Sunshine Valley–Costilla Plain region ≤400 ka. By ~200 ka, erosion had cut through topographic highs at Ute Mountain and the Red River fault zone, and began deep-canyon incision across the southern San Luis Basin. Previous studies indicate that prior to 200 ka, the present Rio Grande terminated into a large bolson complex in the vicinity of El Paso, Texas, and systematic, headward erosional processes had subtly integrated discontinuously connected basins along the eastern flank of the Rio Grande rift and southern Rocky Mountains. We propose that the integration of the entire San Luis Basin into the Rio Grande drainage system (~400–200 ka) was the critical event in the formation of the modern Rio Grande, integrating hinterland basins of the Rio Grande rift from El Paso, Texas, north to the San Luis Basin with the Gulf of Mexico. This event dramatically affected basins southeast of El Paso, Texas, across the Chisos Mountains and southeastern Basin and Range province, including the Rio Conchos watershed and much of the Chihuahuan Desert, inducing broad regional landscape incision and exhumation.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Evaluating dewatering approaches to protect larval Pacific lamprey

Executive Summary Larval Pacific lamprey live for several years burrowed in nearshore sediments where they filter feed on detritus and organic matter. Dewatering of larval habitat can occur as a result of flow-management practices, construction projects, or seasonal closures of irrigation diversions. Effective management of dewatering events requires guidance on approaches to protect lamprey, such as dewatering rates and light conditions (day or night) that allow lamprey the best opportunity to relocate water and avoid being stranded. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments comparing five dewatering rates (1, 1.8, 4, 8, and 16 inches per hour [in/h]) and two light conditions (light and dark) to evaluate their effectiveness in protecting larval lamprey. We used a tank with a simulated shoreline at a 10-percent slope filled with river sediment and manipulated the outflow to control the rate of dewatering until water was covering only the sediment in the lowest tank section, at the bottom of the slope. Following dewatering, larvae were classified as either stranded (in or on the substrate outside the watered area) or safe (relocated to the wetted area at the lower end of the tank). All study groups experienced high rates of stranding. The lowest stranding rates were for 1 in/h, in both light (77 percent) and dark (80 percent). Faster dewatering rates generally produced higher percentages of stranded fish, and both the dark and light trials at 16 in/h stranded all larvae. At each of the five dewatering rates, trials conducted in the dark stranded the same or higher proportions of fish than the corresponding trial conducted in the light, so there was no clear advantage to dewatering during dark conditions. The largest contribution to stranding rates for all study groups was the high number of larvae (50–80 percent) that did not initiate movement in response to dewatering and remained in the uppermost tank section where they were stocked at the start of the trials. The proportion of larvae that emerged from the sediment during dewatering trials was approximately 30 percent, and fish that emerged were consistently smaller than those that remained burrowed. Combining all dewatering rates, emergence was 31.3 percent for groups under dark conditions and 30.7 percent for groups under light conditions. We recorded the timing of emergence for 58 larvae and their median time to emerge (after the surface of the sediment in the uppermost tank section was dewatered) was 0.62 hour (h) (range 0–4.5 h). We measured larval movement rates and found that large fish moved faster than small fish. Differences in larval movement rate based on light condition were significant only for large fish, which had a significantly faster rate during light conditions. Larval lamprey moved, over short distances, at rates that exceeded the fastest dewatering rate we tested. The mean movement rates for groups ranged from 19.0 to 44.4 centimeters per minute [cm/min]) and the fastest dewatering rate (16 in/h) is equivalent to less than 1 cm/min. Only the slowest movement rate measured, 6.6 cm/min for one individual lamprey, was slower than the fastest dewatering rate. We also investigated lamprey responses to a series of dewatering and rewatering events. Individual larvae were held in cylinders and exposed to four cycles of dewatering and rewatering using dewatering rates of 1 and 16 in/h and a rewatering rate of 2 in/h. Each dewatering rate was tested under both dark and light conditions. The location of fish, either on the surface of the sediment or burrowed, was recorded after each dewatering event for four rounds. The most common individual fish response for all study groups was to remain burrowed through all four rounds, and there were large differences in response between small and large larvae. Overall for small larvae, combining all groups, 14 of 28 fish emerged, and of those, 8 died and 1 was lethargic. The 1-in/h rate had 7 of the 8 mortalities, split about equally between the dark (3 fish) and light (4 fish) trials. All but one fish that died emerged from the sediment at some point during the four rounds of dewatering. Large larvae predominantly remained burrowed in all four rounds and did not experience any mortality. None of the large fish emerged for more than a single round, and emergence occurred only in the first and second rounds. Larvae emerged more quickly as the number of dewatering events increased. The mean time to emerge after the surface of the sediment in the tube was dewatered, combing all four groups, was 42 minutes (min) in round 1 (14 fish), 16 min in round 2 (5 fish), 11 min in round 3 (3 fish), and 8 minutes in round 4 (3 fish). When all groups and rounds of dewatering were combined, the overall mean time to emerge was 29 min (25 fish) and ranged from 1 min to 2 hours after the surface of the sediment was dewatered. Larvae burrowed deeper during the 1-in/h trials than the 16-in/h trials, and few fish were deeper than about 23 centimeters (cm). Large larvae burrowed deeper than small larvae. Small larvae were most concentrated from 0 to 7.6 cm (83.7 percent), and large fish were concentrated from 15.2 to 22.8 cm (43.3 percent). The second dewatering event resulted in greater mean burrowing depth than the first event, but trends after the second event were less clear. Larval size played a role in lamprey responses to dewatering, having a significant effect on emergence, movement rate, and vertical distribution. The sediment used for laboratory testing or occupied by lamprey in the field appears to affect lamprey response to dewatering and deserves greater attention in future studies. Larvae were more active in the dark, but darkness did not consistently provide better outcomes (e.g., more emergence or reduced stranding) compared to daylight. An improved understanding of the cues that prompt larvae to emerge from the sediment, combined with the ability to manage dewatering rates, would be useful to guide future dewatering events to minimize negative effects to lamprey.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Physics to fish—Understanding the factors that create and sustain native fish habitat in the San Francisco Estuary

Executive Summary The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Central Valley Project (CVP), one of the nation’s largest water projects. Reclamation has an ongoing need to improve the scientific basis for adaptive management of the CVP and, by extension, joint operations with California’s State Water Project. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works cooperatively with the Bureau of Reclamation to provide scientific support for the management of Reclamation’s CVP project. Major habitat restoration efforts and a new water-diversion point are planned to benefit delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) and other species of concern while ensuring the reliability of water supply. In addition, various flow actions and management activities have been identified as possible methods to increase populations of delta smelt and salmonid ( Oncorhynchus spp.) runs of concern. The overarching goal of this cooperative project was to provide Reclamation with the scientific information needed to evaluate the efficacy of ongoing and future adaptive management actions and to improve the scientific basis for more flexible CVP operations that would achieve water-supply reliability and fish protection. The research and monitoring described in this report comprises the period 2015–19 and focuses on management issues related to native fish species of concern, especially delta smelt. Conserving the delta smelt population while providing a reliable water supply is a primary management and policy issue in California. Our approach for this cooperative project is based on the “physics to fish” concept, the idea that high-quality habitat is generated and sustained by the interaction between physical processes and the landscape. These interactions create a template for chemical and biological processes that can change across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Following this concept, this project (hereafter referred to as “the physics to fish project”) included monitoring and studies of water flows, sediments, water quality, and invertebrate and fish dynamics across a range of spatial and temporal scales and in regions relevant to resource managers tasked with managing water supplies and ecosystem health in the San Francisco Estuary. The intent of this approach was to document the habitat conditions, important processes, and interactions among them that create high-quality habitat for native fishes so that the likely effects of future management actions (for example, habitat restoration) can be objectively assessed at the local (site-specific), regional (within subregions of the estuary), and landscape (across the entire estuary and beyond) scales. Hydrodynamically, the upper estuary (landward of Carquinez Strait) is characterized by a fixed volume of tidally exchanged water (for example, tidal prism) that interacts with the existing channel network and bathymetry to create regions with differing hydrodynamics. Our results indicate that careful study of construction or reoperation of existing infrastructure to perform management actions can help (1) improve the accuracy of hydrodynamic models; (2) further understanding of ecological effects; and (3) enhance abilities to predict ecological outcomes. At the local scale, we developed a new concept called the Lagrangian to Eulerian (LE) ratio that can be used as a tool for understanding the importance of various hydrodynamic processes in specific channels or channel networks and for forecasting transport dynamics. Channels with LE ratios<1 in a channel network or in a dead-end slough are hydrodynamically able to develop an exchange zone between two parcels of water that may have different chemical and physical properties. In a dead-end channel, there is a landward region with long residence time (no-exchange zone) and a seaward region with short residence time (high-exchange zone) that are well mixed with seaward waters. At the transition (exchange zone) between the high and no-exchange regions, a gradient will form in water-quality constituents that differ in concentration between the landward and seaward waters. Turbidity affects fish habitat and has declined through time in the San Francisco Estuary. Average turbidity across the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter referred to as “the Delta”) is dependent on annual hydrology. In dry years, the region around Cache Slough (known regionally as the “Cache Slough Complex”) in the northern Delta is generally more turbid than Suisun Bay and the lower Sacramento River. When the Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), a large flood bypass that runs parallel to the Sacramento River in the northern Delta, is not flooding and river flows are lower, sediment is usually transported into the Cache Slough Complex because flood tides dominate ebb tides, resulting in transport of suspended sediment from seaward areas of the upper estuary into the Cache Slough Complex. These hydrodynamic conditions also favor the formation of turbidity maximums (TMs) in the Cache Slough Complex. The TMs are areas of higher suspended-sediment concentration, providing higher-turbidity habitat favored by some fishes, including delta smelt, and they can also concentrate other constituents, including phytoplankton and organic carbon that can be important in food webs. Pelagic primary production by phytoplankton is the basis for Delta food webs supporting pelagic fishes such as delta smelt; however, phytoplankton abundance in the Delta has declined during recent decades. We examined how nutrients, hydrodynamics, and other factors affect phytoplankton blooms. Based on our results, we developed three new concepts of phytoplankton bloom formation in the Delta, each associated with a distinct set of hydrologic conditions. First, productivity cascades highlighted how local processes can contribute to phytoplankton blooms observed at the regional scale. Second, we observed phytoplankton blooms in the upper San Francisco Estuary that were associated with transport out of Yolo By-Pass (transport blooms). Third, we also documented a series of phytoplankton blooms that were in the confluence area at the landward edge of Suisun Bay. The conditions leading to creation of confluence phytoplankton blooms are not yet understood, but the confluence region connects the Cache Slough Complex with Suisun Marsh. Therefore, blooms in this area have the potential to spread to large areas of the Delta. At the landscape scale, the distribution of the invasive clams ( Potamocorbula amurensis and Corbicula fluminea , hereafter referred to as “ Corbicula ”) is driven by salinity. At smaller spatial scales, the distribution of either species is sensitive to multiple factors affecting survival and reproduction, complicating efforts to predict distribution and abundance without considering local-scale conditions across the area of interest. In the Cache Slough Complex, the area landward of the exchange zone in regions with LE ratio<1 were characterized by low abundances of Corbicula probably because recruits from seaward areas are not transported past the exchange zone and because there are no landward tributaries with adult Corbicula to provide an upstream source of recruits. Corbicula biomass was highest near or downstream from the exchange zone consistent with Corbicula grazing on phytoplankton produced in the exchange zone or transported from the no-exchange zone. The severity of Corbicula grazing could be reduced by manipulating the hydrodynamic characteristics of waterways; however, the beneficial and harmful effects on the organisms meant to benefit from increased phytoplankton production, including zooplankton and fish species of concern, should be thoroughly examined before manipulating hydrodynamic characteristics. The distribution of fishes at the landscape scale is generally driven by the position of the salinity field in the estuary. The physics to fish project compared distributions of fishes at Ryer Island, a tidal wetland in Suisun Bay and a region of variable salinity, with fish distributions at the Cache Slough Complex, a freshwater region. At Ryer Island, there was an absence of freshwater invasive species and an abundance of native species, such as Sacramento splittail ( Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ), tule perch ( Hysterocarpus traskii ), and Sacramento pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus grandis ). The native species were almost exclusively captured in wetland and nearshore shallow-water habitat regardless of water-quality conditions. In the Cache Slough Complex, our regional scale objective was to elucidate how hydrodynamic-physical habitat interactions drive fish-community structure. Our studies showed that dendritic channel systems were better able to support native species, while intertidal habitats supported those species best able to exploit the transient character of the habitat. Habitats upstream from the exchange zone were especially important in supporting high numbers of native fishes relative to within or downstream from the exchange zone. Many of the native species were associated with tidal marsh in the no-exchange zone. More pelagic-oriented, mobile species, such as Striped Bass ( Morone saxatilis ), threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ), and Sacramento pikeminnow, were more affected by water-quality conditions, such as turbidity. The physics to fish concept developed in this project provides a framework for designing individual projects and for considering the cumulative effects of multiple projects in a region, using the LE ratio as a guiding metric. The physics to fish concept may also provide a suitable framework for coordinating management actions. Tidal wetlands can function in several ways in the hydrodynamic framework. Relatively small tidal wetlands with short channel networks and with LE ratios>1 are not able to maintain a landward no-exchange zone or an exchange zone. This likely means that any contributions to pelagic food webs would be limited to resources derived from wetland vegetation, which can include dissolved and particulate organic matter (detritus) and populations of consumers that can increase in abundance based on those resources. The fate of the contributed production from these channels depends on the characteristics of the receiving waters seaward of the tidal wetland. If these channels join a large system such as Suisun Bay, then any contribution is likely to be rapidly dispersed in the larger volume; however, the channel junction might provide a focal point for consumers, such as fishes, to congregate and feed on material leaving the wetland on ebb tides before it is dispersed in the larger volume. Fishes might also access these resources by entering the wetland. The physics to fish project has established a foundation and several new concepts for understanding how habitat restoration can benefit native fish populations at the local and regional levels. Many of the ideas regarding habitat restoration and channel modifications outlined in this report could help guide management actions that could improve conditions for native fishes at little or no water cost beyond water already dedicated to other management actions. A complete list of products originating from this work is provided in appendix 1.

California↗

USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River affects agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users and is an important concern in the Western United States. In the Paradox Valley of southwestern Colorado, natural discharge of sodium-chloride brine to the Dolores River from the underlying core of a salt-valley anticline accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Colorado River. Formation of the Paradox Valley began during the Miocene, and subsequent erosion exposed the Pennsylvania Paradox Formation in the core of the anticline where a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and sodium-chloride saturated brine developed at the top of the exposed salt diapir. The discharge of brine to the Dolores River is affected by these dissolution features, along with seasonal hydrologic conditions and density-dependent flow between older dense brine and the younger fresh groundwater in the overlying alluvial aquifer. To reduce TDS concentrations in the Dolores River through the Paradox Valley, the Bureau of Reclamation has pumped brine from a series of shallow wells adjacent to the river since July 1996. The pumped brine is collected and piped to a deep disposal well where it is injected into the Mississippian Leadville Limestone at a depth of about 4,570-meters below land surface. The pumping and injection operation is collectively known as the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU), and by 2015, the PVU had substantially reduced TDS concentrations in the Dolores River by about 70 percent. Since 2019, injection-pressure limits and related seismic activity have constrained deep-well injection and thus brine pumping at the PVU. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a MODFLOW-6 three-dimensional, variable-density groundwater flow and TDS transport model of the Paradox Valley to evaluate the effects of PVU pumping operations on brine discharge to the Dolores River and to guide additional research. The finite-difference model grid consists of 76 rows and 48 columns oriented from northwest to southeast in alignment with valley topography and groundwater-flow directions in the near-surface freshwater alluvial aquifer. A 7-layer hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing datasets to represent the alluvial aquifer, cap rock, collapse breccia, and groundwater flow and TDS transport from the underlying Paradox Formation salt to the Dolores River. The model represents a 33-year transient calibration period from 1987 through 2020 that includes pre-PVU conditions from 1987 through June 1996 and post-PVU conditions from July 1996 through 2020. A 1,000-year simulation of groundwater flow and coupled TDS transport computed the initial conditions for the subsequent 33-year transient simulation. Observations of precipitation, streamflow, evaporation, agricultural land use, and PVU brine pumping rates were used to specify appropriate boundary conditions to the model representing time-varying recharge, tributary streamflow, groundwater underflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and PVU pumping. Values for average monthly streamflow and TDS concentration at the upstream streamgage, the Dolores River at Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09169500), were specified as model input where the Dolores River enters Paradox Valley. Observed pumping from the PVU, water levels and TDS concentrations in groundwater, and streamflow and estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage, the Dolores River near Bedrock (USGS streamgage 09171100), were calibration targets that constrained the manual calibration of model parameters representing aquifer hydraulic conductivity, storage, streambed conductance, recharge, and (ET). Two primary model-calibration targets were the match between observed and simulated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and the match between estimated and simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River. The simulated TDS mass withdrawn by pumping wells is calculated by the model as the product of the assigned pumping rate and simulated groundwater TDS concentrations. Because actual pumping rates were assigned as simulated values, the total simulated PVU pumping for the 33-year calibration is within 0.5 percent of the observed values. However, simulated concentrations and thus mass flux of TDS withdrawn by the PVU pumping wells were consistently about 26 percent less than observed values for all the simulated time periods (33-year simulation, pre-PVU, and post-PVU). The representation of brine inflow was explored through additional modeling to evaluate the effect of the simulated brine source on groundwater TDS concentrations. Results indicated that a saturated-salt constant-flux brine source best replicated the magnitude and transient pattern observed for TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells. The simulated TDS mass flux to the Dolores River is compared to estimates based on observed streamflow and specific conductance (SC) data for the downstream streamgage. The calibrated model provided a close fit of simulated to measured streamflow at the downstream streamgage, and the calibrated model fit to estimated TDS concentrations at the downstream streamgage was reasonable. The greatest differences between simulated and estimated values occurred during drought periods from June 2000 to March 2003, May 2012 to June 2013, and October 2013 to October 2014, when simulated TDS concentrations in the river were greater than estimated concentrations. In general, simulated TDS mass flux to the river for the pre-PVU period is in good agreement with estimated values (2-percent difference), but the model overestimated TDS mass flux to the river by about 41 percent during the post-PVU period. The model uncertainty with respect to TDS mass flux to the river indicates other processes or model parameters not well represented by the model are affecting the system, especially during drought. During model calibration, the most sensitive parameters were identified as vertical hydraulic conductivity of the alluvial aquifer, conductance of the Dolores River streambed, ET extinction depth and rate, and recharge rate. Five 5-year scenarios of conditions for 2021–25 were simulated to assist evaluation of alternative strategies to manage the discharge of brine into the Dolores River. The first scenario simulates no PVU pumping and serves as a base case for comparison to the other scenarios. Two scenarios simulate the effects of varying withdrawal timing at an annual rate about one-third less than during 2010 through 2018. During high-flow spring snowmelt runoff periods when brine discharge is naturally minimized, PVU pumping does not substantially affect salinity in the Dolores River, and comparison of these two scenarios indicates that scheduling brine withdrawals during times of low river stage is nearly as effective at reducing TDS mass flux to the river as pumping brine year-round. Cessation of pumping during periods of high river stage may be advantageous for system maintenance, brine injection, and seismic-risk reduction. The fourth scenario tested the effect of reducing irrigation-return flow on brine discharge and predicted a slight reduction of TDS mass flux to the Dolores River, but not as great a reduction as that of using the PVU to remove brine. The fifth scenario simulated 5 years of drought conditions without PVU pumping and indicates brine discharge during drought about 15 percent greater than during average hydrologic conditions. Results from scenario 5 are consistent with the calibrated model results and indicate that aquifer properties and ET processes and parameters may be affecting simulation results during drought. The Paradox Valley groundwater model provides a reasonable overall match to observed conditions in the Dolores River. The model is useful for evaluating relative differences between brine management scenarios to inform PVU operational decisions and to identify gaps in data and process understanding. Representation of the brine source, hydraulic-conductivity parameters, and recharge and ET processes were identified as potential areas for additional field and modeling research. Additional research in the Paradox Valley might include field-data collection that provides additional information on the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels, groundwater TDS concentrations, stream characteristics, and aquifer properties. Additional modeling efforts could benefit from applying advanced tools for model development, calibration, and visualization including parameter-estimation and sensitivity analysis. Statistical evaluation of known model uncertainties such as hydraulic conductivity, streambed conductance, representations of the brine source, recharge, and ET could improve the match between simulated and estimated TDS mass flux from PVU pumping wells and to the Dolores River further informing model predictions and system understanding for the Paradox Valley.

Colorado↗