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USGS2008

Characteristics, extent and origin of hydrothermal alteration at Mount Rainier Volcano, Cascades Arc, USA: Implications for debris-flow hazards and mineral deposits

Hydrothermal alteration at Mount Rainier waxed and waned over the 500,000-year episodic growth of the edifice. Hydrothermal minerals and their stable-isotope compositions in samples collected from outcrop and as clasts from Holocene debris-flow deposits identify three distinct hypogene argillic/advanced argillic hydrothermal environments: magmatic-hydrothermal, steam-heated, and magmatic steam (fumarolic), with minor superimposed supergene alteration. The 3.8 km 3 Osceola Mudflow (5600 y BP) and coeval phreatomagmatic F tephra contain the highest temperature and most deeply formed hydrothermal minerals. Relatively deeply formed magmatic-hydrothermal alteration minerals and associations in clasts include quartz (residual silica), quartz–alunite, quartz–topaz, quartz–pyrophyllite, quartz–dickite/kaolinite, and quartz–illite (all with pyrite). Clasts of smectite–pyrite and steam-heated opal–alunite–kaolinite are also common in the Osceola Mudflow. In contrast, the Paradise lahar, formed by collapse of the summit or near-summit of the edifice at about the same time, contains only smectite–pyrite and near-surface steam-heated and fumarolic alteration minerals. Younger debris-flow deposits on the west side of the volcano (Round Pass and distal Electron Mudflows) contain only low-temperature smectite–pyrite assemblages, whereas the proximal Electron Mudflow and a < 100 y BP rock avalanche on Tahoma Glacier also contain magmatic-hydrothermal alteration minerals that are exposed in the avalanche headwall of Sunset Amphitheater, reflecting progressive incision into deeper near-conduit alteration products that formed at higher temperatures. The pre-Osceola Mudflow alteration geometry is inferred to have consisted of a narrow feeder zone of intense magmatic-hydrothermal alteration limited to near the conduit of the volcano, which graded outward to more widely distributed, but weak, smectite–pyrite alteration within 1 km of the edifice axis, developed chiefly in porous breccias. The edifice was capped by a steam-heated alteration zone, most of which resulted from condensation of fumarolic vapor and oxidation of H 2 S in the unsaturated zone above the water table. Weakly developed smectite–pyrite alteration extended into the west and east flanks of the edifice, spatially associated with dikes that are localized in those sectors; other edifice flanks lack dikes and associated alteration. The Osceola collapse removed most of the altered core and upper east flank of the volcano, but intensely altered rocks remain on the uppermost west flank. Major conclusions of this study are that: (1) Hydrothermal–mineral assemblages and distributions at Mount Rainier can be understood in the framework of hydrothermal processes and environments developed from studies of ore deposits formed in analogous settings. (2) Frequent eruptions supplied sufficient hot magmatic fluid to alter the upper interior of the volcano hydrothermally, despite the consistently deep (≥ 8 km) magma reservoir which may have precluded formation of economic mineral deposits within or at shallow depths beneath Mount Rainier. The absence of indicator equilibrium alteration-mineral assemblages in the debris flows that effectively expose the volcano to a depth of 1–1.5 km also suggests a low potential for significant high-sulfidation epithermal or porphyry-type mineral deposits at depth. (3) Despite the long and complex history of the volcano, intensely altered collapse-prone rocks were spatially restricted to near the volcano's conduit system and summit, and short distances onto the upper east and west flanks, due to the necessary supply of reactive components carried by ascending magmatic fluids. (4) Intensely altered rocks were removed from the summit, east flank, and edifice interior by the Osceola collapse, but remain on the upper west flank in the Sunset Amphitheater area and present a continuing collapse hazard. (5) Visually conspicuous rocks on the lower east and mid-to-lower west flanks are not intensely altered and probably have not significantly weakened the rock, and thus do not present significant collapse hazards. (6) Alteration developed most intensely within breccia units, because of their high permeability and porosity. Volcanoes with abundant near-conduit upper-edifice breccias are prone to alteration increasing the possibility of collapse, whereas those that are breccia-poor (e.g., massive domes) are less prone to alteration.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS1989

The campi flegrei (Italy) geothermal system: A fluid inclusion study of the mofete and San Vito fields

A fluid inclusion study of core from the Mofete 1, Mofete 2, Mofete 5, San Vito 1, and San Vito 3 geothermal wells (Campi Flegrei, Campania, Italy) indicates that the hydrothermal minerals were precipitated from aqueous fluids (??CO2) that were moderately saline (3-4 wt.% NaCl equiv.) to hypersaline (> 26 wt.% NaCl equiv.) and at least in part, boiling. Three types of primary fluid inclusions were found in authigenic K-feldspar, quartz, calcite, and epidote: (A) two-phase [liquid (L) + vapor (V)], liquid-rich inclusions with a range of salinity; (B) two-phase (L + V), vaporrich inclusions with low salinity; and (C) three-phase [L + V + crystals (NaCL)], liquid-rich inclusions with hypersalinity. Results of microthermometric and crushing studies are reported for twenty drill core samples taken from the lower portions of the five vertical wells. Data presented for selected core samples reveal a general decrease in porosity and increase in bulk density with increasing depth and temperature. Hydrothermal minerals commonly fill fractures and pore-spaces and define a zonation pattern, similar in all five wells studied, in response to increasing depth (pressure) and temperature. A greenschist facies assemblage, defined by albite + actinolite, gives way to an amphibolite facies, defined by plagioclase (andesine) + hornblende, in the San Vito 1 well at about 380??C. The fluid inclusion salinity values mimic the saline and hypersaline fluids found by drilling. Fluid inclusion V/L homogenization temperatures increase with depth and generally correspond to the extrapolated down-hole temperatures. However, fluid inclusion data for Mofete 5 and mineral assemblage data for San Vito 3, indicate fossil, higher-temperature regimes. A limited 87Sr/86Sr study of leachate (carbonate) and the leached cores shows that for most samples (except San Vito 3) the carbonate deposition has been from slightly 87Sr-enriched fluids and that Sr isotopic exchange has been incomplete. However, San Vito 3 cores show an approach to fluid/rock Sr equilibrium with a fluid similar to modern ocean water in 87Sr/86Sr ratio. The Campi Flegrei volcanic system has evolved undersaturated products, mostly trachyte, and defines a large (??? 12 km) caldera. The hydrothermal system developed in this location can be used as an analog for fossil systems in similar trachytic environments. The potential for ore mineralization is expressed by the recognition, from fluid inclusion and drilling data, of ore-forming environments such as boiling and brine stratification. ?? 1989.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2023

Precaldera mafic magmatism at Long Valley, California: Magma-tectonic siting and incubation of the Great Rhyolite System

The iconic volcanic center at Long Valley has released ∼820 km 3 of rhyolite in at least 110 eruptions. From 2.2 Ma until 0.23 Ma, products were exclusively rhyolitic, and ∼ 700 km 3 were high-silica rhyolite severely depleted in Sr, Ba, and Eu. The rhyolitic interval was preceded by an interval from 3.9 to 2.6 Ma with numerous basalt-andesite-dacite eruptions accompanied by no rhyolite at all. We have now mapped the circumcaldera products of this interval, defined 107 eruptive units, characterized them all chemically and petrographically, and dated many by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar. Here we display and describe them by sector around the caldera, interpret the nature of the transcrustal magma system that eventuated in the 35-km-wide Long Valley granite-rhyolite pluton, and analyze regional tectonic factors that did or did not contribute to siting the system. Nine Miocene (12–6 Ma) eruptive units close to Long Valley were followed by a Pliocene flare-up that released >300 mafic eruptions in a SW–NE swath 170 km long, centered across the later site of Long Valley. The basalts and their fractionates are intraplate alkalic products dominated by a continental lithosphere that had long been fluxed by Mesozoic subduction. Tertiary arc volcanism had not impinged on the area of Long Valley. Volumes estimated for the 107 Neogene precaldera eruptive units (only 40 of which exceeded 0.1 km 3 ) total ∼ 27 km 3 ± 50%—only ∼3% of the subsequent volume of rhyolite erupted. Such a volume of high-silica rhyolite with ultra-low Sr and Eu is not a product of partial melting but requires as proximate parent a leucogranitic crystal mush that is itself the upper level of a long-lived plutonic reservoir that extends to the lower crust. The 27 km 3 of Neogene magma that erupted was a small contingent of the mantle-derived basaltic flux needed to energize (and contribute its fractionated melt to) a 30-km-deep compositionally graded crustal column, which culminated in ∼10,000 km 3 of granitoid mush from which 820 km 3 of Quaternary high-silica rhyolitic melt escaped and erupted. Pliocene basaltic eruptions ceased at ∼2.6 Ma, probably because the basaltic flux intensified sufficiently to render the mushy upper crust impenetrable. The 2.6–2.2 Ma quiescent interval represented culmination of thermal activation of the plutonic column and refinement of its leucogranitic mushy upper layer, from which extreme melts escaped for the next 2 Myr. The Pliocene mafic swath crosses the Sierran rangefront fault zone coincident with a left-stepping extensional reentrant that also began developing at ∼3 Ma. Moreover, Long Valley overlies a dextral offset in the initial Sr-isotope 0.706 line, which may reflect the rifted or attenuated edge of Proterozoic crust and mantle lithosphere. Concatenation of these three influences may account for siting of intensified edge-focused magmatism that produced the great Quaternary pluton.

California↗

USGS2023

Understanding the drivers of volcano deformation through geodetic model verification and validation

Volcano geodesy often involves the use of models to explain observed surface deformation. A variety of forward models are used, from analytical point sources to numerical simulations that consider complex magma system geometries, topography, and material properties. Various inversion methods can then be used to relate observed volcano data to models. Ideally, forward models should be verified through intercomparison, to check for implementation errors and quantify the error induced by any approximations used. Additionally, forward models and inversion methods should be validated through tests with synthetic and/or real data, to determine their ability to match data and estimate parameter values within uncertainty. However, to date, there have not been comprehensive verification and validation efforts in volcano geodesy. Here, we report on the first phase of the Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) exercises, which were designed to build community involvement through web-based exercises involving calculations of static elastic displacement around pressurized magma reservoirs. The forward model exercises begin with a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space, then introduce topography, heterogeneous elastic properties, and spheroidal geometries. The inversion exercises provide synthetic noisy surface displacement data for a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space and assess consistency in estimates of reservoir location and volume/pressure change. There is variability in the results from both forward modeling and inversions, which highlights the strengths and limitations of different forward models, as well as the importance of inversion method choice and uncertainty quantification. This first phase of the DVD exercises serves as a community resource and will facilitate further efforts to develop standards of reproducibility.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2021

Repeating earthquakes during multiple phases of unrest and eruption at Mount Agung, Bali, Indonesia, 2017

In 2017, Mount Agung produced a small (VEI 2) eruption that was preceded by an energetic volcano-tectonic (VT) swarm (>800 earthquakes per day up to M4.9) and two months of declining activity. The period of decreased seismic activity complicated forecasting efforts for scientists monitoring the volcano. We examine the time history of earthquake families at Mount Agung in search of additional insight into the temporal changes in the shallow crust prior to eruption. Specifically, we analyze the period of declining seismic activity about five weeks prior to the eruption when forecasting uncertainty was greatest. We use REDPy (Hotovec-Ellis and Jeffries, 2016) to build a catalog of 6,508 earthquakes from 18 October 2017–15 February 2018 and group them into families of repeating earthquakes based on waveform similarity using a cross-correlation coefficient threshold of 0.8. We show that the evolution of earthquake families provides evidence that Mount Agung was progressing toward eruption even though overall earthquake rates and seismic-energy-release declined. We find that earthquake families that dominated seismicity during the beginning of the crisis ceased near the onset of tremor on 12 November 2017. Then, earthquake families took on characteristics commonly observed during effusive phases of eruptions on 15 November—a full six days before the first phreatomagmatic eruption on 21 November 2017 and a full ten days before the actual onset of lava effusion on 25 November 2017. We interpret the transitions in seismicity as the manifestation of a three-phase physical model including an Intrusion Phase, a Transition Phase, and a Eruptive Phase. During the Intrusion Phase, seismicity was dominated by VT earthquakes with a relatively high percentage of repeaters (59%) grouped into numerous (65) simultaneous families. During the Eruptive Phase, seismicity included both VT and low frequency earthquakes that grouped into relatively long-lived families despite a low overall percentage of repeaters (14%). The Transition Phase exhibited characteristics of earthquake families between the Intrusion Phase and Eruptive Phase. We conclude that the time history of earthquake families provides insight into the evolution of the stress distribution in the volcanic edifice, the development of the volcanic conduit, and seismogenesis of magma effusion. Finally, we discuss the role that repeating earthquakes could play in real-time monitoring at restless volcanoes. Our work suggests eruption forecasts can be improved by incorporating automatic processing codes to assist seismologists during sustained periods of high earthquake rates, even at sparsely monitored volcanoes.

Bali, Mount Agung↗

USGS2020

Evolution of the submarine–subaerial edifice of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska, during its 2016–2017 eruption based on analysis of satellite imagery

The 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano involved at least 70 detected eruptive events between mid-December 2016 and August 30, 2017. Acquisition of high-resolution satellite imagery throughout the duration of the eruptive period allowed us to document and map the various morphologic changes that occurred on the subaerial part of Bogoslof Island. The emplacement of pyroclastic-flow and surge deposits caused the island to increase in area by about 1.5 km 2 . The dominant volcanic landforms of the eruption were a series of tuff rings emplaced around various submarine vents. Many of the tuff rings were mantled with surface dunes and impressive amounts of ballistic ejecta, likely derived from erupting magma bodies or previously emplaced submarine lava domes. Debris-flow deposits and surface channels extending over tuff ring surfaces apparent in multiple satellite images are evidence for explosive ejection of seawater. In most cases, erupting vents were initially submarine or began at subaerial lava domes and were largely flooded by seawater suggesting that water-magma ratios were likely high. Under such conditions where water is abundant, eruptive products typically reflect a high degree of water involvement and are dominated by the formation of wet tephra jets and flows and associated deposits typically consist of fine ash and lapilli, contain accretionary lapilli and ash aggregates, and usually form tuff cones and mounds. We observed none of these features in our analysis of satellite data or during our examination of eruptive deposits on Bogoslof Island in 2018. On the contrary, the dominant landform associated with the Bogoslof eruption was tuff rings. The development of tuff rings and surface dunes are commonly associated with the formation of pyroclastic base surges that are by comparison emplaced relatively dry. Dry base surge deposits can be generated from phreatomagmatic explosions involving superheated steam. It is possible that shallow submarine, magma–wet sediment interactions were a characteristic and possibly a dominant eruptive process of the 2016–2017 Bogoslof eruption.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Volcano geodesy using InSAR in 2020: The past and next decades

The study of volcano deformation has grown significantly through they year 2020 since the development of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) in the 1990s. This relatively new data source, which provides evidence of changes in subsurface magma storage and pressure without the need for ground-based equipment, has matured during the past decade. It now provides a means to address previously inaccessible questions and offers input to increasingly complex models of magmatic processes. Here, we review how technological advances in InSAR during 2010-2020 have facilitated our ability to monitor and interpret volcanic processes, primarily through rapid and accurate observations of the changing surfaces at active volcanoes worldwide. Specifically, we examine how current systems achieve excellent resolution in time and space, provide global coverage, and generate products that are easy to use by non-specialists—factors that have often limited the practical study of volcanoes using radar measurements. We also look to the future, offering our perspective about how advancements in technology and data management in the decade to come will increase the value and accessibility of InSAR applied to the geodetic study of volcanoes and monitoring of hazardous volcanic processes. New developments will include the launch of additional satellites by both public space agencies and private companies, as well as implementation of algorithms for exploiting the growing volumes of data. To meet their full potential, these efforts will require coordination between data users and data providers so that the relevant imagery is acquired, made available to volcanologists in a timely fashion, and utilized to assess and mitigate volcanic hazards.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2002

The oligocene Lund Tuff, Great Basin, USA: A very large volume monotonous intermediate

Unusual monotonous intermediate ignimbrites consist of phenocryst-rich dacite that occurs as very large volume (> 1000 km3) deposits that lack systematic compositional zonation, comagmatic rhyolite precursors, and underlying plinian beds. They are distinct from countless, usually smaller volume, zoned rhyolite-dacite-andesite deposits that are conventionally believed to have erupted from magma chambers in which thermal and compositional gradients were established because of sidewall crystallization and associated convective fractionation. Despite their great volume, or because of it, monotonous intermediates have received little attention. Documentation of the stratigraphy, composition, and geologic setting of the Lund Tuff - one of four monotonous intermediate tuffs in the middle-Tertiary Great Basin ignimbrite province - provides insight into its unusual origin and, by implication, the origin of other similar monotonous intermediates. The Lund Tuff is a single cooling unit with normal magnetic polarity whose volume likely exceeded 3000 km3. It was emplaced 29.02 ?? 0.04 Ma in and around the coeval White Rock caldera which has an unextended north-south diameter of about 50 km. The tuff is monotonous in that its phenocryst assemblage is virtually uniform throughout the deposit: plagioclase > quartz ??? hornblende > biotite > Fe-Ti oxides ??? sanidine > titanite, zircon, and apatite. However, ratios of phenocrysts vary by as much as an order of magnitude in a manner consistent with progressive crystallization in the pre-eruption chamber. A significant range in whole-rock chemical composition (e.g., 63-71 wt% SiO2) is poorly correlated with phenocryst abundance. These compositional attributes cannot have been caused wholly by winnowing of glass from phenocrysts during eruption, as has been suggested for the monotonous intermediate Fish Canyon Tuff. Pumice fragments are also crystal-rich, and chemically and mineralogically indistinguishable from bulk tuff. We postulate that convective mixing in a sill-like magma chamber precluded development of a zoned chamber with a rhyolitic top or of a zoned pyroclastic deposit. Chemical variations in the Lund Tuff are consistent with equilibrium crystallization of a parental dacitic magma followed by eruptive mixing of compositionally diverse crystals and high-silica rhyolite vitroclasts during evacuation and emplacement. This model contrasts with the more systematic withdrawal from a bottle-shaped chamber in which sidewall crystallization creates a marked vertical compositional gradient and a substantial volume of capping-evolved rhyolite magma. Eruption at exceptionally high discharge rates precluded development of an underlying plinian deposit. The generation of the monotonous intermediate Lund magma and others like it in the middle Tertiary of the western USA reflects an unusually high flux of mantle-derived mafic magma into unusually thick and warm crust above a subducting slab of oceanic lithosphere. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2016

Monogenetic volcanoes fed by interconnected dikes and sills in the Hopi Buttes volcanic field, Navajo Nation, USA

Although monogenetic volcanic fields pose hazards to major cities worldwide, their shallow magma feeders (<500 m depth) are rarely exposed and, therefore, poorly understood. Here, we investigate exposures of dikes and sills in the Hopi Buttes volcanic field, Arizona, to shed light on the nature of its magma feeder system. Shallow exposures reveal a transition zone between intrusion and eruption within 350 m of the syn-eruptive surface. Using a combination of field- and satellite-based observations, we have identified three types of shallow magma systems: (1) dike-dominated, (2) sill-dominated, and (3) interconnected dike-sill networks. Analysis of vent alignments using the pyroclastic massifs and other eruptive centers (e.g., maar-diatremes) shows a NW-SE trend, parallel to that of dikes in the region. We therefore infer that dikes fed many of the eruptions. Dikes are also observed in places transforming to transgressive (ramping) sills. Estimates of the observable volume of dikes (maximum volume of 1.90 × 10 6 m 3 ) and sills (minimum volume of 8.47 × 10 5 m 3 ) in this study reveal that sills at Hopi Buttes make up at least 30 % of the shallow intruded volume (∼2.75 × 10 6 m 3 total) within 350 m of the paeosurface. We have also identified saucer-shaped sills, which are not traditionally associated with monogenetic volcanic fields. Our study demonstrates that shallow feeders in monogenetic fields can form geometrically complex networks, particularly those intruding poorly consolidated sedimentary rocks. We conclude that the Hopi Buttes eruptions were primarily fed by NW-SE-striking dikes. However, saucer-shaped sills also played an important role in modulating eruptions by transporting magma toward and away from eruptive conduits. Sill development could have been accompanied by surface uplifts on the order of decimeters. We infer that the characteristic feeder systems described here for the Hopi Buttes may underlie monogenetic fields elsewhere, particularly where magma intersects shallow, and often weak, sedimentary rocks. Results from this study support growing evidence of the important role of shallow sills in active monogenetic fields.

Arizona↗

USGS2024

Following the tug of the audience from complex to simplified hazards maps at Cascade Range volcanoes

Volcano-hazard maps are broadly recognized as important tools for forecasting and managing volcanic crises and for disseminating spatial information to authorities and people at risk. As scientists, we might presume that hazards maps can be developed at the time and with the methods of our discretion, yet the co-production of maps with stakeholder groups, who have programmatic needs of their own, can sway the timing, usability, and acceptance of map products. We examine two volcano hazard map-making efforts by staff at the U.S. Geological Survey. During the 1990s and early 2000s scientists developed a series of hazard assessments and maps with detailed zonations for volcanoes in Washington and Oregon. In 2009, the National Park Service expressed the need for simplified versions of the existing hazard maps for a high-profile visitor center exhibit. This request created an opportunity for scientists to rethink the objectives, scope, content, and map representations of hazards. The primary focus of this article is a discussion of processes used by scientists to distill the most critical information within the official parent maps into a series of simplified maps using criteria specified. We contextualize this project with information about development of the parent maps, public response to the simplified hazard maps, the value of user engagement in mapmaking, and with reference to the abundance of guidance available to the next generation of hazard-mapmakers. We argue that simplified versions of maps should be developed in tandem with any hazard maps that contain technical complexities, not as a replacement, but as a mechanism to broaden awareness of hazards. We found that when scientists endeavor to design vivid and easy-to-understand maps, people in many professions find uses for them within their organization’s information products, resulting in extensive distribution.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Pyroclast/snow interactions and thermally driven slurry formation. Part 2: Experiments and theoretical extension to polydisperse tephra

Erosion of snow by pyroclastic flows and surges presumably involves mechanical scour, but there may be thermally driven phenomena involved as well. To investigate this possibility, layers of hot (up to 400??C), uniformly sized, fine- to medium-grained sand were emplaced vertically onto finely shaved ice ('snow'); thus there was no relative shear motion between sand and snow and no purely mechanical scour. In some cases large vapor bubbles, commonly more than 10 mm across, rose through the sand layer, burst at the surface, and caused complete convective overturn of the sand, which then scoured and mixed with snow and transformed into a slurry. In other cases no bubbling occurred and the sand passively melted its way downward into the snow as a wetting front moved upward into the sand. A continuum of behaviors between these two cases was observed. Vigorous bubbling and convection were generally favored by high temperature, small grain size, and small layer thickness. A physically based theory of heat- and mass transfer at the pyroclast/snow interface, developed in Part 1 of this paper, does a good job of explaining the observations as a manifestation of unstable vapor-driven fluidization. The theory, when extrapolated to the behavior of actual, poorly sorted pyroclastic flow sediments, leads to the prediction that the observed 'thermal-scour' phenomenon should also occur for many real pyroclastic flows passing over snow. 'Thermal scour' is therefore likely to be involved in the generation of lahars.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2020

Indonesia and the United States team up to reduce impacts from dangerous volcanoes

With 75 historically active volcanoes, Indonesia is the world’s most volcanically active nation. Its volcanoes are legendary throughout the world, with the notorious 19th-century eruptions at Mount Tambora (1815) and Krakatau (1883), and the eruption that created the giant Toba Caldera in Sumatra (75,000 years ago)—the Earth’s largest volcanic eruption in the past 100,000 years. Just in the past 20 years, more than 36 volcanoes have erupted, some multiple times, threatening millions of people. The Government of Indonesia responds to this daunting volcanic threat from Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geologic Hazards Mitigation (CVGHM) offices in Bandung. From there, dozens of staff members coordinate operations at 77 small observatories spread out across the 5,000-kilometer-long archipelago that is Indonesia. For more than 50 years, the United States has worked in partnership with the Government of Indonesia to reduce the risk of volcanic eruptions and to save lives. Today, the two governments cooperate through an agreement between CVGHM and the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP). Each year CVGHM and VDAP representatives convene to discuss priorities for the upcoming 12 months. They outline a series of training efforts, field campaigns, equipment deployments, and timely topics that require further exploration and development.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2021

Volcanic air pollution and human health: Recent advances and future directions

Volcanic air pollution from both explosive and effusive activity can affect large populations as far as thousands of kilometers away from the source, for days to decades or even centuries. Here, we summarize key advances and prospects in the assessment of health hazards, effects, risk, and management. Recent advances include standardized ash assessment methods to characterize the multiple physicochemical characteristics that might influence toxicity; the rise of community-based air quality monitoring networks using low-cost gas and particulate sensors; the development of forecasting methods for ground-level concentrations and associated public advisories; the development of risk and impact assessment methods to explore health consequences of future eruptions; and the development of evidence-based, locally specific measures for health protection. However, it remains problematic that the health effects of many major and sometimes long-duration eruptions near large populations have gone completely unmonitored. Similarly, effects of prolonged degassing on exposed populations have received very little attention relative to explosive eruptions. Furthermore, very few studies have longitudinally followed populations chronically exposed to volcanic emissions; thus, knowledge gaps remain about whether chronic exposures can trigger development of potentially fatal diseases. Instigating such studies will be facilitated by continued co-development of standardized protocols, supporting local study teams and procuring equipment, funding, and ethical permissions. Relationship building between visiting researchers and host country academic, observatory, and agency partners is vital and can, in turn, support the effective communication of health impacts of volcanic air pollution to populations, health practitioners, and emergency managers.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2008

Hawaiian oral tradition describes 400 years of volcanic activity at Kilauea

Culturally significant oral tradition involving Pele, the Hawaiian volcano deity, and her youngest sister Hi'iaka may involve the two largest volcanic events to have taken place in Hawai'i since human settlement: the roughly 60-year-long ‘Ailā’au eruption during the 15th century and the following development of Kīlauea's caldera. In 1823, Rev. William Ellis and three others became the first Europeans to visit Kīlauea's summit and were told stories about Kīlauea's activity that are consistent with the Pele–Hi'iaka account and extend the oral tradition through the 18th century. Recent geologic studies confirm the essence of the oral traditions and illustrate the potential value of examining other Hawaiian chants and stories for more information about past volcanic activity in Hawai‘i.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the 21st century

A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long‐term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter‐term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations—particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks—should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

Hawaii↗

USGS2026

Steps toward a satellite-based global volcano monitoring and early warning system: From pilot to demonstrator to GVEWERS

The consequences of volcanic eruptions span a broad range. Large explosive eruptions that recur every several hundred to thousands of years can impact global climate, but even small eruptions of a magnitude that takes place multiple times each year someplace on Earth can have devastating effects given the large number of people who live near volcanoes. Ground-based monitoring is inadequate or lacking at many of the world’s active volcanoes, but satellite observations can fill important gaps and provide operational awareness of volcanic unrest and eruptions. The need for satellite monitoring of volcanoes has been articulated in numerous international agreements, and for some datasets, like thermal and ultraviolet imagery, daily or sub-daily monitoring has been incorporated into operational volcano surveillance. Utilization of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets, however, has lagged. Since 2014, the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) has sponsored a series of projects designed to enhance access to, and utilization of, high-resolution SAR and optical satellite imagery for volcano monitoring. The efforts have culminated in the development of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (GVEWERS) initiative—a global and sustainable program intended to support volcano hazards assessment and mitigation. GVEWERS builds on lessons learned from a decade of CEOS volcano projects while also providing a foundation for continuing to improve the accessibility and exploitation of satellite data for better anticipating and responding to hazardous volcanic eruptions.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2016

Bayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000–2012

Estimating rates of magma supply to the world's volcanoes remains one of the most fundamental aims of volcanology. Yet, supply rates can be difficult to estimate even at well-monitored volcanoes, in part because observations are noisy and are usually considered independently rather than as part of a holistic system. In this work we demonstrate a technique for probabilistically estimating time-variable rates of magma supply to a volcano through probabilistic constraint on storage and eruption rates. This approach utilizes Bayesian joint inversion of diverse datasets using predictions from a multiphysical volcano model, and independent prior information derived from previous geophysical, geochemical, and geological studies. The solution to the inverse problem takes the form of a probability density function which takes into account uncertainties in observations and prior information, and which we sample using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Applying the technique to Kīlauea Volcano, we develop a model which relates magma flow rates with deformation of the volcano's surface, sulfur dioxide emission rates, lava flow field volumes, and composition of the volcano's basaltic magma. This model accounts for effects and processes mostly neglected in previous supply rate estimates at Kīlauea, including magma compressibility, loss of sulfur to the hydrothermal system, and potential magma storage in the volcano's deep rift zones. We jointly invert data and prior information to estimate rates of supply, storage, and eruption during three recent quasi-steady-state periods at the volcano. Results shed new light on the time-variability of magma supply to Kīlauea, which we find to have increased by 35–100% between 2001 and 2006 (from 0.11–0.17 to 0.18–0.28 km 3 /yr), before subsequently decreasing to 0.08–0.12 km 3 /yr by 2012. Changes in supply rate directly impact hazard at the volcano, and were largely responsible for an increase in eruption rate of 60–150% between 2001 and 2006, and subsequent decline by as much as 60% by 2012. We also demonstrate the occurrence of temporal changes in the proportion of Kīlauea's magma supply that is stored versus erupted, with the supply “surge” in 2006 associated with increased accumulation of magma at the summit. Finally, we are able to place some constraints on sulfur concentrations in Kīlauea magma and the scrubbing of sulfur by the volcano's hydrothermal system. Multiphysical, Bayesian constraint on magma flow rates may be used to monitor evolving volcanic hazard not just at Kīlauea but at other volcanoes around the world.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2014

Database for the geologic map of upper Eocene to Holocene volcanic and related rocks in the Cascade Range, Washington

This geospatial database for a geologic map of the Cascades Range in Washington state is one of a series of maps that shows Cascade Range geology by fitting published and unpublished mapping into a province-wide scheme of lithostratigraphic units. Geologic maps of the Eocene to Holocene Cascade Range in California and Oregon complete the series, providing a comprehensive geologic map of the entire Cascade Range that incorporates modern field studies and that has a unified and internally consistent explanantion. The complete series will be useful for regional studies of volcanic hazards, volcanology, and tectonics. Originally a project supported by the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the maps emphasize Quaternary volcanic rocks, because large igneous-related hydrothermal systems that have high temperatures are associated with Quaternary volcanic fields. Rocks older than a few million years are also included on the maps as they help to unravel geologic puzzles of the present-day Cascade Range. The deeply eroded older volcanoes found in the Western Cascades physiographic subprovince are analogues of today's snow-covered shield volcanoes and stratovolcanoes. The fossil hydrothermal systems of the Eocene to Pliocene vents now exposed provide clues to processes active today beneath the Pleistocene and Holocene volcanic peaks along the present-day crest of the Cascade Range. Study of these older rocks can aid in developing models of geothermal systems. These rocks also give insight into the origins of volcanic-hosted mineral deposits and even to future volcanic hazards. This digital database contains information used to produce the geologic map published as Sheet 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Miscellaneous Investigations Series Map I-2005. (Sheet 2 of Map I-2005 shows sources of geologic data used in the compilation and is available separately). Sheet 1 of Map I-2005 shows the distribution and relations of volcanic and related rock units in the Cascade Range of Washington at a scale of 1:500,000. This digital release is produced from stable materials originally compiled at 1:250,000 scale that were used to publish Sheet 1. The database therefore contains more detailed geologic information than is portrayed on Sheet 1. This is most noticeable in the database as expanded polygons of surficial units and the presence of additional strands of concealed faults. No stable compilation materials exist for Sheet 1 at 1:500,000 scale. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map sheet, main report text, and accompanying mapping reference sheet from Map I-2005. For more information on volcanoes in the Cascade Range in Washington, Oregon, or California, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

Washington↗