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‘The fish that stop’: Drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate

n the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories.

Alaska

Syn-magmatic subsidence during the early stages of continental rifting in the Mesoproterozoic—A reanalysis of legacy data for the Midcontinent Rift, western Lake Superior

The Midcontinent Rift system (ca. 1.1 Ga) is a 2000-km-long series of elongated volcanic and sedimentary troughs and associated intrusive centers exposed chiefly in the Lake Superior region of North America. The rift system represents a long history of intense magmatism and subsequent sedimentation that was arrested by far-field tectonic events before sea-floor spreading was established. The premature cessation preserved a record of processes related to the beginning of continental rifting. The rift system under Lake Superior has been long studied using seismic-reflection data collected as part of the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE). We reexamine GLIMPCE Line C by developing a detailed velocity model for time to depth conversion constrained by other legacy data. We corroborate the model and develop a geologic interpretation using gravity and magnetic modeling and ties to geology mapped onshore. We recognize superposed subsiding sedimentary and volcanic basins for the southern half of the Line C depth section. This interpretation differs from previous paradigms that show major crustal faults that bound half-grabens or full grabens. We conclude that high-velocity (6.9 km/s) intrusive zones rather than major crustal faults border the sides of the basins. We speculate that the volcanic basin represents the initiation of seaward dipping reflectors. The syn-magmatic subsidence can be explained by dike injection and volcanic loading. Discrete lava basins throughout the region likely subsided at different times in a disorganized manner along the rift trend, raising questions about the long-term role of lithospheric thinning and melt generation.

Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, Wisconsin

“Leaky weirs” capture alluvial deposition and enhance seasonal mountain-front recharge in dryland streams

“Leaky weirs” are rock structures installed in dryland streams, which are anchored into exposed bedrock, loosely cemented, and designed to allow water to slowly pass through. They are being tested at a ranch in southeastern Arizona, USA, to restore and conserve the historic range and desert wetlands. Data are collected to assess how leaky weirs impact surface water, subsurface water, and groundwater recharge—including stream discharge, timing, and depth of infiltration, and groundwater elevations. Three adjacent watersheds, two with outlets just below leaky weirs and one with leaky weirs farther upstream, were instrumented with water-level loggers, wildlife cameras, and crest stage instruments with temperature sensors in the soil. As most groundwater recharge is assumed to be focused along the mountain fronts in this region, mountain-block recharge is also evaluated to differentiate between the two using isotope analyses. Finally, a single, late-season flood event is scrutinized to consider the leaky weir effect on all monitored components in the water budget. Results indicated groundwater flow is primarily from the mountains to the east via older, regional mountain-block recharge. However, the development of shallow alluvial aquifers is supported by the leaky weirs, that slow flows, capture permeable sediments, and allow infiltration, thus enhancing mountain-front recharge. In turn, these new pockets of water help support the restoration of historic wetlands. Sediment accumulates where leaky weirs are installed, reducing flashy peak flows, and resulting in a series of infiltration ponds along the channel that support vegetation during growing seasons and recharge the shallow aquifer during non-growing seasons.

Arizona

Investigating the influence of climate and volcanic surface aging on fluvial erosion: A case study of Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

Precipitation is one of the dominant drivers of landscape erosion and evolution; however, the effects of typical rainfall compared with less frequent, high-magnitude precipitation events on erosion remain unclear. Volcanic islands are ideal locations to study such phenomena due to their simple geometries, nontectonic construction, and strong spatiotemporal rainfall gradients. However, spatial variation in surface age, created during their construction, often complicates their degradation histories by introducing temporal changes in erosion rates as drainage networks develop. Réunion Island (western Indian Ocean) presents a clear example of this, with an east–west gradient in both surface age and mean annual precipitation, as well as infrequent cyclones that alter the background rainfall pattern. In this study, we analyze the effects of surface age, average rainfall, and rainfall variability on basin development and fluvial erosion across the island. We calculate basin-averaged values of basin morphology, age, precipitation, river discharge, eroded volumes, and erosion rates, and use these to analyze the dominant drivers of landscape evolution through a series of correlation analyses. Our results indicate a temporal dependence on the influence of precipitation, with young surfaces being dominantly eroded by high-rainfall events and older surfaces eroded by mean annual rainfall patterns. Furthermore, we show that drainage development of shield volcanoes follows similar trends to other volcano types, and suggest that surface permeability and groundwater structure are important controls on runoff-driven erosion on shield volcanoes. These results add new components to the question of how precipitation impacts erosion.

Réunion Island

Geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Much of the southeastern United States, including all of Florida, is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains which have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks that underlie these coastal plains in Florida, here collectively referred to as “basement,” are known only from a relatively small number of boreholes. This scientific investigations map presents an interpretation of the basement geology in a 1:1,000,000-scale subsurface geologic map with supporting text, data, and figures. The subsurface mapping methodology integrates petrographic, geochronological, thermochronological, geochemical, and mineralogical analyses of drill cores and cuttings in the context of regional geophysical data. The pre-Middle Jurassic rocks of Florida consist of the Gondwanan (West African) Suwannee terrane which was accreted to Laurentia during the Alleghanian orogeny and subsequently intruded by Permian granites, superposed by early Mesozoic rift basins, and partially overlain by bimodal Jurassic volcanic rocks. The younger basement components, specifically the Southwest Florida volcanic province, North Florida tholeiites, early Mesozoic rift basins, and Alleghanian granitoids, have correlative and contemporaneous units throughout the Appalachian orogen. In contrast, Florida’s older basement rocks, including Paleozoic siliciclastic strata of the Suwannee basin, North Florida volcanic series, Osceola and Gaskin intrusive complexes, and the St. Lucie Metamorphic Complex, have neither surface exposures nor unequivocal correlates. Major structures include early Mesozoic normal faults and northwest-striking transfer zones such as the Jay fault. Many of these faults define the boundaries of subbasins within the South Georgia rift system. Top-of-basement structure contours show gentle arches and embayments that are also recognized in overlying coastal plain strata.

Florida

Projecting stream water quality using Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS): An example with drought conditions in the Delaware River Basin

Future water availability depends on understanding the responses of constituent concentrations to hydrologic change. Projecting future water quality remains a methodological challenge, particularly when using discrete observations with limited temporal resolution. This study introduces Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season for Projection (WRTDS-P), a novel, computationally efficient method that enables the projection of daily stream water quality under varying hydrologic conditions using commonly available discrete monitoring data. WRTDS-P model performance was validated using 39 sites in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and four key constituents: specific conductance (SC), nitrate (NO 3 − ), magnesium (Mg 2+ ) and calcium (Ca 2+ ). Projections were tested against holdout data from the final 1 to 5 years of each time series, demonstrating robust predictive capability, with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.67 for SC, 0.56 for NO 3 − , 0.65 for Ca 2+ , and 0.79 for Mg 2+ . Model uncertainty was correlated with indicators of hydrologic or geochemical mass-sinks, such as groundwater storage and adsorption in wetland soils. Drought scenario analyses for SC used ranges of reduced discharge including flows from the 1965 drought of record. Scenarios predicted widespread increases of SC, especially in southern DRB streams where baseline SC levels are already elevated. Fractional increases of SC were more uniformly distributed, indicating potential risk to sensitive ecosystems. Notably, drought-induced SC increases were positively correlated with interannual SC trends, indicating that hydrologic extremes could exacerbate ongoing salinization. This work provides a transferable and interpretable framework for projecting future water quality and assessing hydrologic risk to water resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania

Waning greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. Federal lease coal production by the mid-21st century

This study presents estimates of future years (2024–2051) United States Federal lease coal production and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion, transport, and mining of that fuel. Results from the coal production estimate indicate a decline in production from Federal leases; with known production of 240 million short tons (mtn) in 2023 and a projected decline to 34.0 mtn by 2051, which represents a reduction to 14.2% of the 2023 value. In parallel with this projection, total GHG emissions are estimated to decrease from 402.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 eq.) in 2024 to 55.0 MMT CO 2 eq. in 2051, a decline to 13.7% of 2024 emissions estimates. The reductions in coal production and emissions are mainly the result of planned coal combustion power plant closures, with major projected closures in 2037 and 2048. However, GHG emissions estimates for future years can be uncertain as they rely heavily on coal production estimates from operators' public business plans and other publicly available resources. Forward looking plans of this type are subject to significant changes if economic and political factors deviate from current information. Results suggest that average GHG emissions over the time series breakout to 95% end point combustion, 3.7% transportation combustion emissions, and 1.3% fugitive emissions, although there is uncertainty associated with these figures. Uncertainty stemming from production projections, sector distributions, and emissions factors on the future emissions estimates increases with time, ranging from −28% to +48% within the 2024–2051 timeframe.

Alabama, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Wy

Numerical modeling of Late Pleistocene to Holocene earthquake-induced progressive rock slope damage in the paraglacial Serpentine valley, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Landslides in deglaciating fjords pose a potential tsunami threat to nearby communities; however, processes contributing to long-term progressive rock damage and landslide conditioning remain poorly constrained in paraglacial settings. Here, we analyse the role of earthquake-induced rock mass damage over late Pleistocene to Holocene time scales, as a conditioning factor for modern landslides, using distinct element numerical modelling to assess spatial and temporal patterns of fracture propagation influenced by varying glacier thickness. Conceptualised numerical models were parameterised by in situ rock mass, glacial and topographic conditions in Serpentine valley, located in Prince William Sound, Alaska, where several large landslides are actively developing along the western valley wall. Results show that although rigid glacier buttressing reduces co-seismic rock mass damage, it does not suppress it completely, and damage occurs both above and below the glacier surface elevation. We demonstrate that topography, and especially steep slopes with topographic convexity, as well as preexisting damage of joint networks and faults inherited from tectonic and exhumation induced stresses, exert primary control on the location of new co-seismic damage. Simulations representing a simplified deglaciation sequence over the past 25 ka, with a series of 10 evenly spaced earthquakes, generated rock mass damage patterns that qualitatively match in situ landslide structural and kinematic observations at one instability in Serpentine valley. Our conceptual study helps clarify the role of repeated seismicity over glacial timescales as a long-term conditioning process for paraglacial rock slope failure, highlighting spatial and temporal patterns of progressive damage accumulation, with outcomes relevant for modern landslide hazard assessment.

Alaska

Nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for species undergoing environmental stressors

A fundamental task in ecological statistics is to estimate abundance and growth rate distributions from wildlife monitoring data to inform conservation management. Modeling time series of wildlife populations presents a number of challenges from both statistical and ecological perspectives, including discreteness; lack of replication; nonstationarity; and observation, demographic, and other phenomenological processes. Nonstationary dynamics are often exhibited by populations undergoing environmental stressors. Models must account for these characteristics to produce reliable estimates of abundance and trends, yet estimation can be challenging with unreplicated data. We propose nonstationary demographic state-space models using unreplicated counts for populations undergoing environmental stressors. A reduced growth rate model matches the complexity of the unreplicated count data, and a fecundity bound on growth rate distributions allows the separation of processes affecting growth rates like environmental stressors from those affecting abundance external to growth rates like migration. NDSSMs allow for the embedding of nonstationary model components, and we explore the use of changepoints, volatility clustering, and migration processes. We apply the proposed nonstationary models in case studies of herons affected by predator/competitor reestablishment and three bat species affected by a fungal pathogen causing white-nose syndrome. Nonstationary models outperform stationary models and generalized linear mixed effects models according to model scoring and visual inspection of predictions, and provide estimates more consistent with published values. Incorporating migration improves model fit universally, even with approximate one-way immigration, most likely because populations are extirpated, recolonized, and increase multiple-fold over the upper bound set by species fecundity. In addition, estimates of the timing and severity of the environmental stressor differed for models with migration. Including nonstationary and demographic components in a fecundity-bounded growth rate model improves inference and benefits interpretability of hyperparameters. In turn, this adjusts uncertainties in predictions of abundance and growth rates over time, providing the ingredients needed for informed conservation analysis and for directing future monitoring of at-risk species.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen

Site-specific, extended ShakeMaps for earthquake engineering applications

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) routinely produces ShakeMaps of shaking intensity across the globe. Due to practical constraints, the number of response spectral periods was limited to three standard periods (0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 sec). We have recently developed the tools that are necessary to expand this functionality to include 22 periods (matching the current U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model periods) as well as the orientation-independent components (e.g., “RotD50”). We refer to ShakeMap products that include these extensions as “extended ShakeMaps.” The added level of complexity motivated us to also develop a user-friendly tool called the “ShakeMap Sampling Tool” (SST) that gives all the estimated shaking metrics for a specific location (or list of locations). Additionally, we develop a web application where users can input locations of interest and view/download the SST results. We further familiarize users with the concept of “Composite ShakeMaps.” For earthquakes sequences such as a mainshock and larger foreshocks and aftershocks, this provides a map of the maximum value of each shaking metric, which is useful for overall loss estimates, the full extent of ground failure triggering potential, and a better portrayal of the repeated shaking levels at a given point for a series of earthquakes. Such a site-specific shaking history facilitates earthquake forensics at building or infrastructure sites for which damage may be of concern, as described in the Disproportionate Damage Earthquake trigger specified in the IEBC (2018, Section 405.2.2) and in developing ATC-145 guidelines (Guidelines for Post-Earthquake Assessment, Repair, and Retrofit of Buildings). The composite ShakeMap can be combined with the SST for a variety of earthquake-hazard applications, such as systematically inferring triggering shaking estimates at specific sites of geotechnical interest for landsliding, liquefaction, and lateral-spreading hazards.

Kahramanmaraş

Climate-adaptive urban planning: Quantitative assessment of drought impacts and practical strategies for climate-resilient urban green spaces

Urban green spaces (UGSs) are vital for enhancing a city’s resilience and livability; however, their functionality is increasingly jeopardized by drought, particularly in water-scarce regions. This study evaluates drought impact on UGSs in Metropolitan Adelaide, Australia, a representative semi-arid urban system, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data spanning 2000–2020. Vegetation dynamics were analyzed through Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), standardized anomaly assessment, lagged Pearson correlation, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Mann–Kendall trend analysis. To isolate climatically sensitive signals, 29 urban lawn patches were examined separately from mixed urban canopy, given their shallow root systems and direct dependence on surface moisture. NDVI declined by approximately 0.09 units during the Millennium Drought (2001–2009), with summer greenness deficits reaching 24% below the 20-year benchmark. Temperature was the dominant driver of lawn NDVI variability (r = −0.863, R 2 = 74.5%), substantially exceeding the effect of rainfall (r = 0.156, R 2 = 2.4%). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles modulated vegetation responses, with La Niña years supporting recovery and El Niño years amplifying decline. Post-drought recovery remained incomplete, with NDVI deficits of 8–20% persisting through 2020; full recovery was observed only in 2017, coinciding with the highest recorded summer rainfall. No significant directional trend was detected over the full study period (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.005, p = 0.908). These findings demonstrate that heat, rather than water limitation alone, is the primary driver of vegetation stress in urban systems, highlighting the benefits of integrated management strategies that address both warming and moisture deficits to sustain urban green infrastructure under future climate conditions. We introduce the concept of “urban greenery drought,” referring to a form of vegetation stress in managed urban landscapes where greenness is reduced primarily by elevated temperature and atmospheric demand despite water availability.

Adelaide

Cross section N–N' through the Valley and Ridge province of the southern Appalachian basin, from Greene County, west-central Alabama, to Bibb County, central Alabama

Introduction Geologic cross section N–N′ is the sixth in a series of geologic cross sections constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey to document and improve understanding of the geologic framework and petroleum systems of the Appalachian basin. Cross section N–N′ provides a regional view of the structural and stratigraphic framework of the Appalachian basin in the Valley and Ridge province in western and central Alabama; it spans approximately 69 miles (mi) (111 kilometers [km]). This geologic cross section is a companion to geologic cross sections E–E′ , D–D′ , C–C′ , I–I′ , and A–A′ that are located approximately 350 to 550 mi (563 to 885 km) to the northeast. Cross section N–N' complements earlier geologic cross sections through the Alabama part of the Appalachian basin. Although some of the other cross sections show more structural and stratigraphic detail, they are of more limited extent geographically and stratigraphically. Cross section N–N′ contains information that is useful for evaluating energy resources in the Appalachian basin. Although the Appalachian basin petroleum systems are not shown on the cross section, many of their key elements (such as source rocks, reservoir rocks, seals, and traps) can be inferred from lithologic units, unconformities, and geologic structures shown on the cross section. Other aspects of petroleum systems (such as the timing of petroleum generation and petroleum migration pathways) may be evaluated by burial history, thermal history, and fluid flow models based on what is shown on the cross section. In addition, cross section N–N′ may be used as a reconnaissance tool to identify plausible geologic structures and strata for the subsurface storage of liquid waste or for the sequestration of carbon dioxide.

Alabama

3D Converted wave reverse time migration imaging

We describe a newly developed method for recovering high-resolution images of seismic discontinuities, such as subducting slabs, in 3D. Our method makes use of converted S → P or P → S waves observed by dense arrays of seismometers to infer the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities at depth in a target region. Observed direct and converted waves are backpropagated to their times of origin. The time-reversed wavefield is then separated into its constituent P and S components via the Helmholtz decomposition, and those separated wavefields are used to compute imaging functions that characterize the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities. Imaging functions may be designed to use either S → P or P → S waves, so that users can target those arrivals expected to be most dominant in a given dataset. We have previously demonstrated the efficacy of our method in two dimensions, and we now present a 3D implementation of our technique which addresses the significant computational challenges posed by the size of volumetric wavefield data in three dimensions. Through a series of synthetic examples, we demonstrate that our method is capable of recovering the fine scale structure of a subducting slab given realistic station coverage and earthquake sources. We investigate optimal seismic station geometries for our technique and explore image interpretability in regions with poor data coverage. We find that linear station geometries yield more optimal, interpretable imaging functions than collections of small arrays can. We also show that our method can successfully recover bothS → P or P → S images when realistic shear earthquake sources are used, and we explore the additional computational challenges presented by the high frequency content of S waves. Our results demonstrate the potential for our technique to recover high-resolution information about subducting slabs in real-world regions, given that relatively sparse seismic arrays with only approximately 100 stations are capable of recovering interpretable imaging functions from just a few realistic earthquake sources for multiple discontinuities at significant depth in an area of approximately 400~sq~km.

Seismica

Comparison of hydrologic data and water budgets between 2003–08 and 2018–23 for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, south-central Oklahoma

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer is divided spatially into three parts (eastern, central, and western). The largest groundwater withdrawals are from the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, which provides water to approximately 39,000 people in Ada and Sulphur, Oklahoma, and surrounding areas. The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, including the eastern part, is designated a sole source aquifer for its service area. Based primarily on data collected between 2003 and 2008, a series of comprehensive hydrologic studies of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer was published to provide the information necessary to perform groundwater-flow model simulations so that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board could determine how much water could be withdrawn from the aquifer while maintaining flow to springs and streams. As part of the Phase 1 studies, an aquifer water budget was developed from a numerical model for the period 2003–08. For this report, Phase 1 refers to the 2003–08 data collection period, although for some of the analyses, data collected prior to 2003 were used to inform model development work. Allocation of water from this aquifer was then established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board in 2013. Additional well-spacing rules were also established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board for sensitive sole source groundwater basins. To determine how the water budget for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer has changed over time, recently collected hydrologic data (2018–23) were compared to data collected during 2003–08. The analysis of changes in the aquifer water budget from 2003–08 to 2018–23 could help resource managers better understand changes in the overall balance of water in storage and the potential effects on streamflow, changes in groundwater levels, and the effects of different water uses in the aquifer area on available water in the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer and streams overlying the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer.

Oklahoma

Groundwater-level elevations in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers and Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer, El Paso County, Colorado, 2021–24

El Paso County is the second-most populous county in Colorado and is projected to grow another 15 percent by 2030. Within El Paso County is the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Designated Groundwater Basin (Black Squirrel Basin), an area where surface water is scarce and water users rely primarily on groundwater from five different aquifers (the Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer and four bedrock aquifers within the Denver Basin aquifer system: the lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) to meet their needs. Currently (2024), land within the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is primarily used for rural grazing and agriculture; however, municipal development is ongoing. In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Ground Water Management District, began a study to establish a baseline dataset and assess the groundwater resources of the aquifers within the Black Squirrel Basin. A network of 39 wells was established in 2021; discrete groundwater-level measurements were made bimonthly. Nine of the 39 wells were equipped with pressure transducers to record hourly groundwater-level data. Seven wells had statistically significant seasonal trends, and trends at 3 wells were negative. For the discrete data, 16 wells had a significant trend for the study period, and 4 wells had negative trends. For the time-series data, 8 wells had significant trends, and 3 wells had negative trends. Potentiometric surface maps were created for this study using discrete, static groundwater levels measured in April 2023. These maps showed the estimated groundwater flow direction from the north-northwest to the south-southeast in the alluvial aquifer and from the northwest to the east-southeast for the lower Dawson and Denver aquifer wells. This study indicates the potential benefit of monitoring wells in the areas near municipal pumping. Additional monitoring could lead to a better understanding of connectivity between aquifers and be an important tool for assessing long-term sustainability of groundwater use.

Colorado

Evaluating mass flow meter measurements from chambers for greenhouse gas emissions from orphan wells and other point sources

This study evaluates the performance of a rigid gas flux chamber equipped with a mass flow meter (MFM) for measuring gas emissions from leaking orphan wells and similar pressure-driven gas point sources. We conducted a series of laboratory and field experiments to evaluate the sensitivity, stability, and dynamic range of an MFM chamber system and found an optimal method for sealing the chamber to the ground to isolate the emission source. From these results, we estimate the effects of different soil gas permeabilities on measurements and identify the uncertainty of environmental processes that can impact measurements. Simulations of an MFM chamber are compared to those of a dynamic flux chamber to contrast the data derived with both methodologies and illustrate the potential for measuring high variability leaks with the MFM chamber. Using a low flow resistance MFM and a chamber well-sealed to the ground, it is possible to measure leaks down to 1.08 x 10 -3 cubic meters per hour (m 3 h −1 ) (refenced to 25°/1 atm), corresponding to 0.77 grams per hour (g h −1 ) methane or 2.11 g h −1 carbon dioxide, with a mean uncertainty of 0.89 % relative standard deviation. Environmental processes such as heated gas inside the chamber from solar gain, wind blowing across the chamber vent, and changing humidity in the chamber, can cause variation in MFM measurements. Over 11 d of continuous monitoring under varying weather conditions, the standard deviation of the environmentally sourced signals was found to be 7.40 x 10 -3 m 3 h −1 (equivalent to or 5.27 g h −1 methane or 14.45 g h −1 carbon dioxide). Strategies to obtain the highest quality data from MFM chambers include burying the edges of the chamber below the surface sufficiently deep to seal the chamber edges against gas flow and soaking the dirt with water to lower the chances of escaping gases, while monitoring the gas flow and adjusting the chamber seal to achieve a maximum flow rate.

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques

Submarine groundwater discharge creates cold‐water refugia that can mitigate exposure of heat stress in nearshore corals

Coral reef mortality around the world is accelerating due to human activities and rising sea temperatures that cause bleaching, which is expected to become more frequent. Our ability to predict which corals will be most resilient, however, remains limited due to insufficient information characterizing nearshore temperature and habitat conditions. In this study, we examine how submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) reduces nearshore water temperatures and exposure of corals to heat stress, complementing the understanding that SGD can adversely affect coral when it contains elevated nutrient concentrations. Data from fixed nearshore sensors and vertical depth profiles along ~100 km of the western shoreline of the Island of Hawai’i from 2003 to 2014 demonstrate that submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) can reduce nearshore water temperatures by 1 °C–5°C and create estuarine-like conditions with salinities as low as 20 PSU, where the prevalent coral species, Pocillopora meandrina, Porites lobata , and Montipora capitata , thrive. Time-series temperature records reveal that exposure to high ambient ocean temperatures, which are known to initiate bleaching events, are reduced up to 5%–46% of the time. Coral health surveys indicated coral bleaching in response to moderately high annual temperatures in 2010 and 2011, with more colonies affected farther from cold, SGD-fed waters. Synthesis of these results, along with coral response data following the more extreme marine heat wave of 2014–2015, demonstrates lower coral loss and greater coral recovery near groundwater seeps, particularly those with higher flux and influence on reducing nearshore water temperatures. Our results demonstrate that SGD may therefore provide a beneficial ecosystem service and enhance coral reef resilience, particularly where human-related nutrient additions to groundwater can be mitigated. The implications of our findings are relevant across tropical coasts where groundwater inputs can be substantial, such as the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific, and contribute to improving our understanding of coral sensitivity to gradients in temperature and nutrient stress. Improved management of groundwater resources could thus be vital to local–regional strategies for mitigating future heat stress.

Hawaii

Beavers in the Tualatin River Basin, northwestern Oregon

Growing interest in beaver-assisted restoration in the Tualatin River Basin of northwestern Oregon motivated a series of studies by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the capacity of the stream network to support beaver dams and to evaluate the effects of beaver dams and ponds on urban streams. This multichapter volume describes the data collection from 2016–17 and the findings of these studies, which were done in partnership with Clean Water Services. Chapter A documents the locations of beaver dams in the Tualatin River Basin and how many beaver dams the stream network could support with existing and improved riparian vegetation. Beaver dam capacity was estimated by modifying existing tools to account for the low gradient of many streams in the Tualatin River Basin. Chapter B describes the effects of beaver dams and ponds on hydrologic and hydraulic responses of storm flows. Hydrologic and hydraulic responses for two urban stream reaches were compared with and without beaver dams and ponds and for a range of streamflow conditions using two-dimensional hydraulic models. Chapter C characterizes the effects of beaver dams and ponds on the transport and deposition of suspended sediment. Continuous turbidity, discrete suspended-sediment samples, and streamflow measurements collected during storms and base-flow periods were used to assess: (1) suspended-sediment loads upstream and downstream from two beaver-affected reaches, and (2) seasonal and longitudinal turbidity patterns. Chapter D describes the effects of beaver dams and ponds on longitudinal, spatial, and seasonal water-quality patterns. Continuous and synoptic water-quality data were collected along urban stream reaches, and net ecosystem production was calculated for two beaver-affected reaches. The findings of these studies illustrate that the effects of beaver dams and ponds on hydrology, hydraulics, suspended-sediment transport and deposition, and water quality are dependent on the characteristics of a stream reach (for example, channel gradient, groundwater exchange, and riparian vegetation) and the characteristics of beaver dams and ponds along that reach. This information can be used to consider the implications of beaver-assisted restoration in the Tualatin River Basin and the effects of beaver dams and ponds in urban streams.

Oregon