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Space-time modelling of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains, Oregon

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were used to study the effect of vegetation cover, elevation, slope, and precipitation on the probability of ignition in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, and to estimate the probability of ignition occurrence at different locations in space and in time. Data on starting location of lightning-caused ignitions in the Blue Mountains between April 1986 and September 1993 constituted the base for the analysis. The study area was divided into a pixela??time array. For each pixela??time location we associated a value of 1 if at least one ignition occurred and 0 otherwise. Covariate information for each pixel was obtained using a geographic information system. The GLMMs were fitted in a Bayesian framework. Higher ignition probabilities were associated with the following cover types: subalpine herbaceous, alpine tundra, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.), whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.), and grand fir (Abies grandis (Dougl.) Lindl.). Within each vegetation type, higher ignition probabilities occurred at lower elevations. Additionally, ignition probabilities are lower in the northern and southern extremes of the Blue Mountains. The GLMM procedure used here is suitable for analysing ignition occurrence in other forested regions where probabilities of ignition are highly variable because of a spatially complex biophysical environment.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Impact of competitor species composition on predicting diameter growth and survival rates of Douglas-fir trees in southwestern Oregon

Mixed conifer and hardwood stands in southwestern Oregon were studied to explore the hypothesis that competition effects on individual-tree growth and survival will differ according to the species comprising the competition measure. Likewise, it was hypothesized that competition measures should extrapolate best if crown-based surrogates are given preference over diameter-based (basal area based) surrogates. Diameter growth and probability of survival were modeled for individual Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees growing in pure stands. Alternative models expressing one-sided and two-sided competition as a function of either basal area or crown structure were then applied to other plots in which Douglas-fir was mixed with other conifers and (or) hardwood species. Crown-based variables outperformed basal area based variables as surrogates for one-sided competition in both diameter growth and survival probability, regardless of species composition. In contrast, two-sided competition was best represented by total basal area of competing trees. Surrogates reflecting differences in crown morphology among species relate more closely to the mechanics of competition for light and, hence, facilitate extrapolation to species combinations for which no observations are available.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Long-term patterns of diameter and basal area growth of old-growth Douglas-fir trees in western Oregon

Diameter growth and age data collected from stumps of 505 recently cut old-growth Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees at 28 sample locations in western Oregon (U.S.A.) indicated that rapid early and sustained growth of old Douglas-fir trees were extremely important in terms of attaining large diameters at ages 100a??300 years. The diameters of the trees at ages 100a??300 years (D100a??D300) were strongly, positively, and linearly related to their diameters and basal area growth rates at age 50 years. Average periodic basal area increments (PAIBA) of all trees increased for the first 30a??40 years and then plateaued, remaining relatively high and constant from age 50 to 300 years. Average PAIBA of the largest trees at ages 100a??300 years were significantly greater by age 20 years than were those of smaller trees at ages 100a??300 years. The site factors province, site class, slope, aspect, elevation, and establishment year accounted for little of the variation observed in basal area growth at age 50 years and D100a??D300. The mean age range for old-growth Douglas-fir at the sample locations was wide (174 years). The hypothesis that large-diameter old-growth Douglas-fir developed at low stand densities was supported by these observations.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Decline in long-term growth trends of white oak

Quercus alba tree-ring collections from 89 locations throughout much of its range, from Connecticut to North Carolina to Iowa, were examined for evidence of growth decline initiated in the 1950s. The expected trend of annual basal area increments, based on pre-1950 growth, appears to be linear, with the slope varying among collections relative to site quality. Growth decline, defined as departure of actual growth below that expected, was identified in 40 to 60 collections judged to have not been affected by local site histories. The percentage of collections showing decline was essentially the same in the Northeast, the Midwest and the Southeast. Onset of decline began during a relatively narrow time window from the mid-1950's to the early 1960's. Since then the growth trend has been linear and appears unrelated to changes in regional sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions. Events or conditions, unique to the 1950's, initiated a growth rate change in c 2/3 of the stands examined. Initiation of the decline appears to be unrelated to tree age, geographic location, site quality, climatic trends, or regional emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides. -from Authors

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Spatial variability and collector requirements for sampling throughfall volume and chemistry under a mixed-hardwood canopy

Ion concentrations were generally less variable within storms compared with net ion input data. Concentrations and net inputs of some ions were consistently less variable than others; for example, Ca2+, NO3-, and SO42- were less variable than NH4 + and K+. These patterns of variability were consistent in comparisons both within and among storms. The relatively low variability of NO3- and SO42- is probably due to dry deposition of these ions as anthropogenic pollutants, while the low variability of Ca2+ is the result of deposition in windblown soil particles. The high variability of NH4+ and K+ is probably the result of biological processes. Ammonium is strongly retained by the canopy, and K+ is readily leached from it. Retention by, and leaching from, the canopy can induce spatial variability as a result of spatial heterogeneity in the biota. Throughfall volume also displayed low variability within and among events, requiring an average of 11 collectors to estimate the mean within 10% at the 95% confidence level. -from Author

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Effects of a clear-cut harvest on soil respiration in a jack pine - Lichen woodland

Quantification of the components of ecosystem respiration is essential to understanding carbon (C) cycling of natural and disturbed landscapes. Soil respiration, which includes autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration from throughout the soil profile, is the second largest flux in the global carbon cycle. We measured soil respiration (soil CO2 emission) at an undisturbed mature jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) stand in Saskatchewan (old jack pine, OJP), and at a formerly continuous portion of the stand that was clear-cut during the previous winter (clear-cut, CC). Tree harvesting reduced soil CO2 emission from ???22.5 to ???9.1 mol CO2??m2 for the 1994 growing season. OJP was a small net sink of atmospheric CO2, while CC was a net source of CO2. Winter emissions were similar at both sites. Reduction of soil respiration was attributed to disruption of the soil surface and to the death of tree roots. Flux simulations for CC and OJP identify 40% of CO2 emission at the undisturbed OJP site as near-surface respiration, 25% as deep-soil respiration, and 35% as tree-root respiration. The near-surface component was larger than the estimated annual C input to soil, suggesting fast C turnover and no net C accumulation in these boreal uplands in 1994.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [ Aythya affinis ] and greater scaup [ A. marila ] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

North America

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology

Spatiotemporal analysis of black spruce forest soils and implications for the fate of C

Post-fire storage of carbon (C) in organic-soil horizons was measured in one Canadian and three Alaskan chronosequences in black spruce forests, together spanning stand ages of nearly 200 yrs. We used a simple mass balance model to derive estimates of inputs, losses, and accumulation rates of C on timescales of years to centuries. The model performed well for the surface and total organic soil layers and presented questions for resolving the dynamics of deeper organic soils. C accumulation in all study areas is on the order of 20–40 gC/m 2 / yr for stand ages up to ∼200 yrs. Much larger fluxes, both positive and negative, are detected using incremental changes in soil C stocks and by other studies using eddy covariance methods for CO 2 . This difference suggests that over the course of stand replacement, about 80% of all net primary production (NPP) is returned to the atmosphere within a fire cycle, while about 20% of NPP enters the organic soil layers and becomes available for stabilization or loss via decomposition, leaching, or combustion. Shifts toward more frequent and more severe burning and degradation of deep organic horizons would likely result in an acceleration of the carbon cycle, with greater CO 2 emissions from these systems overall.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Broad-scale predictors of canada lynx occurrence in eastern North America

The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is listed as a threatened species throughout the southern extent of its geographic range in the United States. Most research on lynx has been conducted in the western United States and Canada; little is known about the ecology of lynx in eastern North America. To fill critical knowledge gaps about this species, we modeled and mapped lynx occurrence using habitat and weather data from 7 eastern states and 3 Canadian provinces. Annual snowfall, road density, bobcat (L. rufus) harvest, deciduous forest, and coniferous forest were compared at 1,150 lynx locations and 1,288 random locations. Nineteen a priori models were developed using the information-theoretic approach, and logistic regression models were ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and by our ability to correctly classify reserved data (Kappa). Annual snowfall and deciduous forest predicted lynx presence and absence for a reserved dataset (n = 278) with 94% accuracy. A map of the probability of lynx occurrence throughout the region revealed that 92% of the potential habitat (i.e., >50% probability of occurrence) was concentrated in a relatively contiguous complex encompassing northern Maine, New Brunswick, and the Gaspe?? peninsula of Quebec. Most of the remaining potential habitat (5%) was on northern Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia. Potential habitat in New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York was small (1,252 km2), fragmented, and isolated (>200 km) from known lynx populations. When federally listed as threatened in the contiguous United States in 2000, inadequate regulations on federal lands were cited as the primary threat to Canada lynx. However, the majority of potential lynx habitat in the eastern United States is on private lands and continuous with potential habitat in Canada. Therefore, lynx conservation in eastern North America will need to develop partnerships across national, state, and provincial boundaries as well as with private landowners.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Land cover mapping, fire regeneration, and scaling studies in the Canadian boreal forest with 1 km AVHRR and Landsat TM data

A multitemporal 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. The land cover classification was developed by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). Quantitative areal proportions of the major boreal forest components were determined for a 821 km ?? 619 km region, ranging from the southern grasslands-boreal forest ecotone to the northern boreal transitional forest. The boreal wetlands (mostly lowland black spruce, tamarack, mosses, fens, and bogs) occupied approximately 33% of the region, while lakes accounted for another 13%. Upland mixed coniferous-deciduous forests represented 23% of the ecosystem. A SW-NE productivity gradient across the region is manifested by three levels of tree stand density for both the boreal wetland conifer and the mixed forest classes, which are generally aligned with isopleths of regional growing degree days. Approximately 30% of the region was directly affected by fire disturbance within the preceding 30-35 years, especially in the Canadian Shield Zone where large fire-regeneration patterns contribute to the heterogeneous boreal landscape. Intercomparisons with land cover classifications derived from 30-m Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data provided important insights into the relative accuracy of the 1 km AVHRR land cover classification. Primarily due to the multitemporal NDVI image compositing process, the 1 km AVHRR land cover classes have an effective spatial resolution in the 3-4 km range; therefore fens, bogs, small water bodies, and small patches of dry jack pine cannot be resolved within the wet conifer mosaic. Major differences in the 1-km AVHRR and 30-m Landsat TM-derived land cover classes are most likely due to differences in the spatial resolution of the data sets. In general, the 1 km AVHRR land cover classes are vegetation mosaics consisting of mixed combinations of the Landsat classes. Detailed mapping of the global boreal forest with this approach will benefit from algorithms for cloud screening and to atmospherically correct reflectance data for both aerosol and water vapor effects. We believe that this 1 km AVHRR land cover analysis provides new and useful information for regional water, energy, carbon, and trace gases studies in BOREAS, especially given the significant spatial variability in land cover type and associated biophysical land cover parameters (e.g., albedo, leaf area index, FPAR, and surface roughness). Multiresolution land cover comparisons (30 m, 1 km, and 100 km grid cells) also illustrated how heterogeneous landscape patterns are represented in land cover maps with differing spatial scales and provided insights on the requirements and challenges for parameterizing landscape heterogeneity as part of land surface process research.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres