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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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699 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf–climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well‐studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (± 4.0 vs 4.8°C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf–climate relationships.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2020

Marine latitudinal diversity gradients, niche conservatism and out of the tropics and Arctic: Climatic sensitivity of small organisms

Aim The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a consequence of evolutionary and ecological mechanisms acting over long history, and thus is best investigated with organisms that have rich fossil records. However, combined neontological‐palaeontological investigations are mostly limited to large, shelled invertebrates, which keeps our mechanistic understanding of LDGs in its infancy. This paper aims to describe the modern meiobenthic ostracod LDG and to explore the possible controlling factors and the evolutionary mechanisms of this large‐scale biodiversity pattern. Location Present‐day Western North Atlantic. Taxon Ostracoda. Methods We compiled ostracod census data from shallow‐marine environments of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Using these data, we documented the marine LDG with multiple metrics of alpha, beta (nestedness and turnover) and gamma diversity, and we tested whether macroecological patterns could be governed by different environmental factors, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and primary productivity. We also explored the geologic age distribution of ostracod genera to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the LDG. Results Our results show that temperature and climatic niche conservatism are important in setting LDGs of these small, poorly dispersing organisms. We also found evidence for some dispersal‐driven spatial dynamics in the ostracod LDG. Compared to patterns observed in marine bivalves, however, dispersal dynamics were weaker and they were bi‐directional, rather than following the ‘out‐of‐the‐tropics’ model. Main conclusions Our detailed analyses revealed that meiobenthic organisms, which comprise two‐thirds of marine diversity, do not always follow the same rules as larger, better‐studied organisms. Our findings suggest that the understudied majority of biodiversity may be more sensitive to climate than well‐studied, large organisms. This implies that the impacts of ongoing Anthropocene climatic change on marine ecosystems may be much more serious than presently thought.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2003

High plant diversity in Eocene South America: Evidence from Patagonia

Tropical South America has the highest plant diversity of any region today, but this richness is usually characterized as a geologically recent development (Neogene or Pleistocene). From caldera-lake beds exposed at Laguna del Hunco in Patagonia, Argentina, paleolatitude ~47 o S, we report 102 leaf species. Radioisotopic and paleomagnetic analyses indicate that the flora was deposited 52 million years ago, the time of the early Eocene climatic optimum, when tropical plant taxa and warm, equable climates reached middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Adjusted for sample size, observed richness exceeds that of any other Eocene leaf flora, supporting an ancient history of high plant diversity in warm areas of South America.

Science↗
USGS2017

Bacterial sulfur disproportionation constrains timing of neoproterozoic oxygenation

Various geochemical records suggest that atmospheric O 2 increased in the Ediacaran (635–541 Ma), broadly coincident with the emergence and diversification of large animals and increasing marine ecosystem complexity. Furthermore, geochemical proxies indicate that seawater sulfate levels rose at this time too, which has been hypothesized to reflect increased sulfide oxidation in marine sediments caused by sediment mixing of the newly evolved macrofauna. However, the exact timing of oxygenation is not yet understood, and there are claims for significant oxygenation prior to the Ediacaran. Furthermore, recent evidence suggests that physical mixing of sediments did not become important until the late Silurian. Here we report a multiple sulfur isotope record from a ca. 835–630 Ma succession from Svalbard, further supported by data from Proterozoic strata in Canada, Australia, Russia, and the United States, in order to investigate the timing of oxygenation. We present isotopic evidence for onset of globally significant bacterial sulfur disproportionation and reoxidative sulfur cycling following the 635 Ma Marinoan glaciation. Widespread sulfide oxidation helps to explain the observed first-order increase in seawater sulfate concentration from the earliest Ediacaran to the Precambrian-Cambrian boundary by reducing the amount of sulfur buried as pyrite. Expansion of reoxidative sulfur cycling to a global scale also indicates increasing environmental O 2 levels. Thus, our data suggest that increasing atmospheric O 2 levels may have played a role in the emergence of the Ediacaran macrofauna and increasing marine ecosystem complexity.

Geology↗
USGS2023

The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy

We develop and apply a dynamic economic simulation model to analyze the multi-regional impacts of, and mechanisms of recovery from, a major disaster, the HayWired scenario — a hypothetical Magnitude 7.0 earthquake affecting California’s San Francisco Bay Area. The model integrates loss pathways: capital stock damage, labor supply shocks due to short-term population displacement and longer-run out-migration from damaged areas, and the exacerbating effects of damage to transportation infrastructure capital, as well as various aspects of static and dynamic economic resilience. With input substitution-based static inherent resilience and dynamic resilience in the form of optimal intertemporal and spatial investment allocation, gross output losses range from 0.5 percent to 6 percent across regions, and welfare losses are 0.4 percent statewide but can be ten times as large in hardest-hit areas. Large-scale reconstruction investment is supported by substantial interregional transfers of resources through intra-state trade. Increased output via firms engaging in the key adaptive resilience tactic of production recapture can alleviate a substantial fraction of losses—but only if upstream and downstream barriers to recovery can be lowered quickly.

California↗
USGS2011

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $ 300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $ 400 billion, of which $ 20 to $ 30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $ 325 billion in addition to the $ 400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $ 725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and California Emergency Management Agency guidance connecting federal, state and local natural hazards mapping and mitigation planning under the National Flood Insurance Plan and Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. (6) Common messages to educate the public about the risk of such an extreme disaster as the ARkStorm scenario could be developed and consistently communicated to facilitate policy formulation and transformation. These impacts were estimated by a team of 117 scientists, engineers, public-policy experts, insurance experts, and employees of the affected lifelines. In many aspects the ARkStorm produced new science, such as the model of coastal inundation. The products of the ARkStorm are intended for use by emergency planners, utility operators, policymakers, and others to inform preparedness plans and to enhance resiliency.

California↗
USGS2015

Comparing ecoregional classifications for natural areas management in the Klamath Region, USA

We compared three existing ecoregional classification schemes (Bailey, Omernik, and World Wildlife Fund) with two derived schemes (Omernik Revised and Climate Zones) to explore their effectiveness in explaining species distributions and to better understand natural resource geography in the Klamath Region, USA. We analyzed presence/absence data derived from digital distribution maps for trees, amphibians, large mammals, small mammals, migrant birds, and resident birds using three statistical analyses of classification accuracy (Analysis of Similarity, Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates, and Classification Strength). The classifications were roughly comparable in classification accuracy, with Omernik Revised showing the best overall performance. Trees showed the strongest fidelity to the classifications, and large mammals showed the weakest fidelity. We discuss the implications for regional biogeography and describe how intermediate resolution ecoregional classifications may be appropriate for use as natural areas management domains.

Klamath Region↗
USGS2012

Life at the hyperarid margin: novel bacterial diversity in arid soils of the Atacama Desert, Chile

Nearly half the earth's surface is occupied by dryland ecosystems, regions susceptible to reduced states of biological productivity caused by climate fluctuations. Of these regions, arid zones located at the interface between vegetated semiarid regions and biologically unproductive hyperarid zones are considered most vulnerable. The objective of this study was to conduct a deep diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils of the Atacama Desert, to characterize community structure and infer the functional potential of these communities based on observed phylogenetic associations. A 454-pyrotag analysis was conducted of three unvegetated arid sites located at the hyperarid-arid margin. The analysis revealed communities with unique bacterial diversity marked by high abundances of novel Actinobacteria and Chloroflexi and low levels of Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria , phyla that are dominant in many biomes. A 16S rRNA gene library of one site revealed the presence of clones with phylogenetic associations to chemoautotrophic taxa able to obtain energy through oxidation of nitrite, carbon monoxide, iron, or sulfur. Thus, soils at the hyperarid margin were found to harbor a wealth of novel bacteria and to support potentially viable communities with phylogenetic associations to non-phototrophic primary producers and bacteria capable of biogeochemical cycling.

Atacama Desert↗
USGS2017

Determining fine-scale use and movement patterns of diving bird species in federal waters of the Mid-Atlantic United States using satellite telemetry

Offshore wind energy development in the United States is projected to expand in the upcoming decades to meet growing energy demands and reduce fossil fuel emissions. There is particular interest in commercial offshore wind development within Federal waters (i.e., > 3 nautical miles from shore) of the mid-Atlantic. In order to understand the potential for adverse effects on marine birds in this area, information on distribution and behavior (e.g., flight pathways, timing, etc.) is required for a broad suite of species. In areas where offshore wind development is likely to occur, such information can be used to identify high use areas during critical life stages, which can inform the siting of offshore facilities. It can also be used to provide baseline data for understanding broad changes in distributions that occur after offshore wind developments are constructed in a specific area.

Report↗