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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Damping values derived from surface-source, downhole-receiver measurements at 22 sites in the San Francisco Bay Area of central California and the San Fernando Valley of southern California

A method discussed in Gibbs, Boore, et al. (1994) was applied to surface‐source, downhole‐receiver recordings at 22 boreholes, in the San Francisco Bay area in central California and the San Fernando Valley of southern California, to determine the average damping ratio of shear waves over depth intervals ranging from about 10 m to as much as 245 m (at one site), with most maximum depths being between 35 and 90 m. The average damping values range from somewhat less than 1% to almost 8%, with little dependence on grain size for sites in sediments. Surprisingly, the average damping values for sites with average velocities greater than about 450    m / s "> 450 m / s 450 m/s ⁠ , including, but not limited to rock sites, are generally larger than for sites with lower average velocities. The combined effect of the higher damping and shorter travel times through the rock columns, however, leads to an effective attenuation that is generally comparable or smaller than for soil sites.

California↗

USGS2020

Revisiting California’s past great earthquakes and long-term earthquake rate

In this study, we revisit the three largest historical earthquakes in California—the 1857 Fort Tejon, 1872 Owens Valley, and 1906 San Francisco earthquakes—to review their published moment magnitudes, and compare their estimated shaking distributions with predictions using modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) and ground‐motion intensity conversion equations. Currently accepted moment magnitude estimates for the three earthquakes are 7.9, 7.6, and 7.8, respectively. We first consider the extent to which the intensity distributions of all three earthquakes are consistent with a moment magnitude toward the upper end of the estimated range. We then apply a GMM‐based method to estimate the magnitudes of large historical earthquakes. The intensity distribution of the 1857 earthquake is too sparse to provide a strong constraint on magnitude. For the 1872 earthquake, consideration of all available constraints suggests that it was a high stress‐drop event, with a magnitude on the higher end of the range implied by scaling relationships, that is, higher than moment magnitude 7.6. For the 1906 earthquake, based on our analysis of regional intensities and the detailed intensity distribution in San Francisco, along with other available constraints, we estimate a preferred moment magnitude of 7.9, consistent with the published estimate based on geodetic and instrumental seismic data. These results suggest that, although there can be a tendency for historical earthquake magnitudes to be overestimated, the accepted catalog magnitudes of California’s largest historical earthquakes could be too low. Given the uncertainties of the magnitude estimates, the seismic moment release rate between 1850 and 2019 could have been either higher or lower than the average over millennial time scales. It is further not possible to reject the hypothesis that California seismicity is described by an untruncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution with a b "> b ‐value of 1.0 for moment magnitudes up to 8.0.

California↗

USGS2021

Rayleigh wave amplitude uncertainty across the Global Seismographic Network and potential implications for global tomography

The Global Seismographic Network (GSN) is a multiuse, globally distributed seismic network used by seismologists, to both characterize earthquakes and study the Earth’s interior. Most stations in the network have two collocated broadband seismometers, which enable network operators to identify potential metadata and sensor issues. In this study, we investigate the accuracy with which surface waves can be measured across the GSN, by comparing waveforms of vertical‐component Rayleigh waves from M w "> M w Mw 6 and larger events between collocated sensor pairs. We calculate both the amplitude deviation and correlation coefficient between waveforms at sensor pairs. In total, we make measurements on over 670,000 event–station pairs from events that occurred from 1 January 2010 to 1 January 2020. We find that the average sensor‐pair amplitude deviation, and, therefore, GSN calibration level, is, approximately, 4% in the 25–250 s period band. Although, we find little difference in sensor‐pair amplitude deviations as a function of period across the entire network, the amount of useable data decreases rapidly as a function of increasing period. For instance, we determined that just over 12% of records at 250 s period provided useable recordings (e.g., sensor‐pair amplitude deviations of less than 20% and sensor‐pair correlation greater than 0.95). We then use these amplitude‐estimate deviations to identify how data coverage and quality could be limiting our ability to invert for whole Earth 3D attenuation models. We find an increase in the variance of our attenuation models with increasing period. For example, our degree 12 attenuation inversion at 250 s period shows 32% more variance than our degree 12 attenuation model at 25 s. This indicates that discrepancies of deep‐mantle tomography between studies could be the result of these large uncertainties. Because these high uncertainties arise from limited, high‐quality observations of long‐period ( ⁠ > 100    s ">

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2020

Site response, basin amplification, and earthquake stress drops in the Portland, Oregon area

Site response, sedimentary basin amplification, and earthquake stress drops for the Portland, Oregon area were determined using accelerometer recordings at 16 sites of 10 local earthquakes with M D "> M D MD 2.6–4.0. A nonlinear inversion was applied to calculate site response (0.5–10 Hz), corner frequencies, and seismic moments from the Fourier spectra of the earthquakes. Site amplifications at lower frequencies of 0.1–2.0 Hz were determined from Fourier spectra of four regional earthquakes with M w "> M w Mw 5.8–6.4. Amplifications were calculated relative to a stiff‐soil site outside the Portland and Tualatin basins. Sites on artificial fill and Holocene alluvium show strong amplification peaks (factor of 5) around 1–2 Hz. Sites on the Portland Hills, consisting of thin soil over basalt, display spectral peaks at 4–5 Hz (factor of 4). Spectral peaks at both sites are similar to those predicted for vertically propagating S waves from V S "> V S VS profiles determined at these sites using a borehole and refraction microtremor analysis. The largest amplifications at 0.1–1 Hz were found at stiff‐soil sites in the Tualatin basin, based on recordings of regional earthquakes. Amplifications of a factor of 10, at about 0.3 Hz, were observed for a site in the deeper portion of the Tualatin basin and a factor of 7 at 0.5–0.6 Hz for two adjacent sites closer to the border of that basin. Stiff‐soil sites in the Portland basin exhibit amplifications of 2–3 at frequencies of about 0.3–0.8 Hz. The frequencies of the amplification peaks for the deep Tualatin basin site can be explained by S ‐wave resonance in the shallow sediments, but the observed amplification is underestimated. Earthquake stress drops determined from the inversion range from 3 to 11 MPa, with no overall dependence on seismic moment.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

A ground‐motion prediction model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Greece

Using a recently completed database of uniformly processed strong‐motion data recorded in Greece, we derive a ground‐motion prediction model (GMPM) for horizontal‐component peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and 5% damped pseudoacceleration response spectra, at 105 periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The equations were developed by modifying a global GMPM, to account for more rapid attenuation and weaker magnitude scaling in the Greek ground motions than in the global GMPM. Our GMPM is calibrated using the Greek data for distances up to 300 km, magnitudes from 4.0 to 7.0, and time‐averaged 30 m shear‐wave velocities from 150 to 1200    m / s "> 1200 m / s 1200 m/s ⁠ . The GMPM has important attributes for hazard applications including magnitude scaling that extends the range of applicability to M "> M M 8.0 and nonlinear site response. These features are possible because they are well constrained by data in the global GMPM from which our model is derived. An interesting feature of the Greek data, also observed previously in studies of mid‐magnitude events (6.1–6.5) in Italy, is that they are substantially overpredicted by the global GMPM, which may be a repeatable regional feature, but may also be influenced by soil–structure interaction. This bias is an important source of epistemic uncertainty that should be considered in hazard analysis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Late Holocene slip rate of the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, California

The geologic slip rate on the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault is poorly constrained, despite its importance for understanding earthquake hazard, apparent discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates along this fault section, and long‐term fault interactions in southern California. Here, we use surficial geologic mapping, excavations, and radiocarbon and luminescence dating to quantify the displacements and ages of late Holocene landforms offset by the fault at three sites. At the Ranch Center site, the slip rate is determined using the base of a fan marking incision and deflection of an ephemeral channel. At the adjacent Key Slide site, the margin of a landslide deposited on indigenous fire hearths provides a minimum rate. At the X‐12 site, the slip rate is determined from a channel that incised into a broad fan surface, and is deflected and beheaded by the fault. We use maximum–minimum bounds on both the displacement and age of each offset feature to calculate slip rate for each site independently. Overlap of the three independent rate ranges yields a rate of 33–39 mm/yr over the last 3 ka, under the assumption that the sites share a common history, given their proximity. Considered in sequence, site‐level epistemic uncertainties in the data permit but do not require a rate increase since ∼1200 cal B.P. Modest rate changes can be explained by aleatory variability in earthquake timing and magnitude; larger changes could suggest a shared regional variation with the Garlock and other faults. The new late Holocene slip rates are consistent with geodetic model estimates that include a viscoelastic crust and earthquake cycle effects. The geologic slip rates also provide average slip over dozens of earthquake cycles—a key constraint for long‐term earthquake rupture forecasts.

California↗

USGS2021

A probabilistic framework to model distributions of VS30

The time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m depth from the ground surface, or V S 30 "> V S 30 ⁠ , is often used as a predictor to describe local site effects in ground‐motion models. Although V S 30 "> V S 30 is typically determined from in situ measurements, it is not always feasible to obtain such measurements due to project restrictions or site accessibility. This motivates the development and use of proxy‐based V S 30 "> V S 30 predictions that leverage more readily available secondary information such as surface geology, topographic slope, or geomorphic terrain classes to estimate the mean V S 30 "> V S 30 and associated uncertainty. Traditionally, empirical distributions of V S 30 "> V S 30 have been observed to have long right tails, leading to high levels of associated uncertainty. In this study, we present a physical framework that is grounded in fundamental principles of geostatistics and probability to explain the uncertainty and skewness associated with V S 30 "> V S 30 measurements. Specifically, by invoking Lyapunov’s central limit theorem, we hypothesize that the distribution of V S 30 "> V S 30 can be theoretically approximated by a reciprocal–normal distribution. We show that a non‐normal and skewed distribution of V S 30 "> V S 30 is to be expected and is not a sign of measurement error or sampling bias, although sampling bias can exaggerate such skewness. Our framework also enables us to propose the mode as a characteristic value of V S 30 "> V S 30 measurements, as opposed to the mean or median, which can overestimate the most probable value.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Regional calibration of hybrid ground‐motion simulations in moderate seismicity areas: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben

This study presents the coupling of the spectral decomposition results for anelastic attenuation, stress drop, and site effects with the Graves‐Pitarka (GP) hybrid ground‐motion simulation methodology, as implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) broadband platform (BBP). It is targeted to applications in the Upper Rhine graben (URG), which is among the seismically active areas in western Europe, yet a moderate seismicity area. Our development consists of three main steps: (1) calibration of regional high‐frequency (HF) attenuation properties; (2) modification of the hybrid approach to add compressional waves in the HF computation and examine various strategies to evaluate site amplification factors in the Fourier domain (e.g., V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based or site‐specific factors); (3) testing of the simulations using earthquake records from the URG ( ⁠ 3.7 < M w < 5 "> 3.7 < M w < 5 3.7<Mw<5 ⁠ ). The validation process of the simulated time histories is performed first on rock sites, and, then subsequently at all stations, whatever their site conditions. The performance of the simulations for rock sites is assessed through the standard validation technique in the BBP (comparison of the waveforms, intensity measures, and estimation of the response spectra model bias). We additionally compare the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the simulations and observations, and compute their corresponding bias. The results show that the simulated ground motions match the general characteristics of the recorded motions, and that the model bias generally fluctuates around zero across the broadband frequency range. Hence, the hybrid ground‐motion methodology implemented in the SCEC BBP can be successfully applied outside high‐seismicity areas and outside those areas for which it had been generally calibrated. Our results also show that HF modification and calibration were necessary to improve the fits with the observation, and demonstrate the potential benefits of using site‐specific amplification factors compared to V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based amplification factors.

Upper Rhine Graben↗

USGS2021

Seismic and geodetic analysis of rupture characteristics of the 2020 Mw 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, earthquake

The largest earthquake since 1954 to strike the state of Nevada, United States, ruptured on 15 May 2020 along the Monte Cristo range of west‐central Nevada. The M w 6.5 event involved predominantly left‐lateral strike‐slip faulting with minor normal components on three aligned east–west‐trending faults that vary in strike by 23°. The kinematic rupture process is determined by joint inversion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems displacements, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, regional strong motions, and teleseismic P and SH waves, with the three‐fault geometry being constrained by InSAR surface deformation observations, surface ruptures, and relocated aftershock distributions. The average rupture velocity is 1.5 km/s⁠ , with a peak slip of ∼1.6 m and a ∼20 s rupture duration. The seismic moment is 6.9×10 18 N·m⁠ . Complex surface deformation is observed near the fault junction, with a deep near‐vertical fault and a southeast‐dipping fault at shallow depth on the western segment, along which normal‐faulting aftershocks are observed. There is a shallow slip deficit in the Nevada ruptures, probably due to the immature fault system. The causative faults had not been previously identified and are located near the transition from the Walker Lane belt to the Basin and Range province. The east–west geometry of the system is consistent with the eastward extension of the Mina Deflection of the Walker Lane north of the White Mountains.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2021

Characterizing ground motion amplification by extensive flat sediments: The seismic response of the eastern U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain strata

We examine the effects that Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) strata have on ground motions in the eastern and southeastern United States. The ACP strata consist of widespread, nearly flat‐lying sediments, the upper portions of which are unconsolidated or semiconsolidated. The ACP sediments are deposited primarily on crystalline basement rocks, creating large velocity and density contrasts with the underlying rocks. At 211 sites on ACP strata to thicknesses of 4000 m, we compute spectral ratios relative to the average of four bedrock sites west or northwest of the strata. Sites consist of stations of Earthscope’s USArray Transportable Array (TA), and temporary deployments in the Southeast Suture of the Atlantic Margin Experiment (SESAME), Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) experiment, and the DCShake deployment in Washington, D.C. For the TA and SESAME stations, we use signals from 13 teleseisms and three regional earthquakes as input, combining the north and east components of motion after taking the Fourier transforms. We also include similarly processed site responses from the ENAM and DCShake arrays that were computed in earlier studies. Results show prominent, fundamental resonance peaks at frequencies determined by reverberations in the entire sediment column, and that often define the largest amplifications for each frequency. As frequencies increase, these resonance peaks migrate to thinner ACP strata and increase in amplitude. The peaks are well defined at frequencies below about 1 Hz, but become narrower and less defined regionally at higher frequencies. We develop simple equations to characterize amplification versus ACP thickness, which we approximate by cosine and Gaussian curves with amplifications of 1 on bedrock and rising to the resonance peak, and then decreasing to an average amplification at thicknesses greater than twice the resonance peak. Comparisons with other site corrections for the central and eastern United States based on sediment thickness show similarities on thin ACP strata but divergence on thicker sediments. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of using teleseismic arrivals to characterize the site responses of sedimentary sequences.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Characterizing stress orientations in southern Kansas

Induced seismicity predominantly occurs along faults that are optimally oriented to the local principal compressive stress direction, and the characterization of these stress orientations is an important component of understanding seismic hazards. The seismicity rate in southern Kansas rapidly increased in 2013 primarily due to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater into the Arbuckle Group. Previously, local stress orientations in this area were poorly constrained, which limited our understanding of the complex faulting and diverse earthquake mechanisms in this region. We use shear‐wave splitting and focal mechanism inversion techniques to create multiple, independent estimates of maximum horizontal stress directions ( ⁠ S H max ">

Kansas↗

USGS2021

The productivity of Cascadia aftershock sequences

This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock‐advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016) . Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock‐advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Earthquake magnitudes from dynamic strain

Dynamic strains have never played a role in determining local earthquake magnitudes, which are routinely set by displacement waveforms from seismic instrumentation (e.g., M L ⁠ ). We present a magnitude scale for local earthquakes based on broadband dynamic strain waveforms. This scale is derived from the peak root‐mean‐squared strains ( ⁠ A ⁠ ) in 4589 records of dynamic strain associated with 365 crustal earthquakes and 77 borehole strainmeters along the Pacific‐North American plate boundary on the west coast of the United States and Canada. In this data set, catalog moment magnitudes range from 3.5≤ M w ≤ 7.2 ⁠ , and hypocentral distances range from 6≤ R ≤500 km . The 1D representation of geometrical spreading and attenuation of A common to all strain data is log A 0 ( R )=−0.00072R−1.45log(R) . After correcting for instrument gain, site terms, and event terms, the magnitude scale, M DS =log A −log A 0 ( R )−log(3×10−9) ⁠ , scales as ≈0.92 M w with a residual standard deviation of 0.19. This close association with M w holds for events east of the −124° meridian; west of this boundary, however, a constant correction of 0.41 is needed to adjust for additional along‐path attenuation effects. As a check on the accuracy of this magnitude scale, we apply it to dynamic strain records from three strainmeters located in the near field of the 2019 M 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. Results from these six records are in agreement to within 0.5 magnitude units, and five out of six records are in agreement to within 0.34 units.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Rupture passing probabilities at fault bends and steps, with application to rupture length probabilities for earthquake early warning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can quickly identify the beginning of a significant earthquake rupture, but the first seconds of seismic data have not been found to predict the final rupture length. We present two approaches for estimating probabilities of rupture length given the rupture initiation from an EEW system. In the first approach, bends and steps on the fault are interpreted as physical mechanisms for rupture arrest. Arrest probability relations are developed from empirical observations and depend on bend angle and step size. Probability of arrest compounds serially with increasing rupture length as bends or steps are encountered. In the second approach, time‐independent rates among ruptures from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), are interpreted to apply to the time‐dependent condition in which rupture grows from a known starting point. Length probabilities from a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation provide a reference of comparison. We illustrate the new approach using the discretized fault model for California developed for UCERF3. For the case of rupture initiating on the southeast end of the San Andreas fault we find the geometric complexity of the Mill Creek section impedes most ruptures, and only ∼5% are predicted to reach to San Bernardino on the eastern edge of the greater Los Angeles region. Conditional probabilities of length can be precompiled in this manner for any initiation point on the fault system and thus are of potential value in seismic hazard and EEW applications.

California↗

USGS2021

Survey of fragile geologic features and their quasi-static earthquake ground-motion constraints, southern Oregon

Fragile geologic features (FGFs), which are extant on the landscape but vulnerable to earthquake ground shaking, may provide geological constraints on the intensity of prior shaking. These empirical constraints are particularly important in regions such as the Pacific Northwest that have not experienced a megathrust earthquake in written history. Here, we describe our field survey of FGFs in southern Oregon. We documented 58 features with fragile geometric characteristics, as determined from field measurements of size and strength, historical photographs, and light detection and ranging point clouds. Among the surveyed FGFs, sea stacks have particular advantages for use as ground‐motion constraints: (1) they are frequently tall and thin; (2) they are widely distributed parallel to the coast, proximal to the trench and the likely megathrust rupture surface; and (3) they are formed by sea cliff retreat, meaning that their ages may be coarsely estimated as a function of distance from the coast. About 40% of the surveyed sea stacks appear to have survived multiple Cascadia megathrust earthquakes. Using a quasi‐static analysis, we estimate the minimum horizontal ground accelerations that could fracture the rock pillars. We provide context for the quasi‐static results by comparing them with predictions from kinematic simulations and ground‐motion prediction equations. Among the sea stacks old enough to have survived multiple megathrust earthquakes ( n = 16), eight yield breaking accelerations lower than the predictions, although they generally overlap within uncertainty. FGFs with the lowest breaking accelerations are distributed uniformly over 130 km of coastline. Results for inland features, such as speleothems, are in close agreement with the predictions. We conclude that FGFs show promise for investigating both past earthquake shaking and its spatial variability along the coasts of Oregon and Washington, where sea stacks are often prevalent. Future work can refine our understanding of FGF age and evolution.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Structure and Qp-Qs relations in the Seattle and Tualatin basins from converted seismic phases

We use converted body‐wave phases from local earthquakes to constrain depth to basement and average attenuation relations for the Seattle basin in Washington and the Tualatin basin in Oregon. P ‐, P‐to‐S ‐( Ps ), S‐to‐P‐ ( Sp ), and S ‐wave arrivals are present in three‐component recordings of magnitude 2.5–4.0 earthquakes at seismic stations located in these basins. Based on their relative travel times, these phases are attributed to body‐wave conversions at the basement‐to‐basin contact or to high‐impedance interfaces within the basins. Depth to basement values are calculated using the differential travel times between direct and converted phases, as well as average P ‐ and S ‐wave velocity values. We also identify a high‐impedance layer in the Tualatin basin that likely represents a laterally extensive deposit of volcanic materials embedded between the basement contact and the Columbia River Basalt Group. In addition, the average Q P – Q S "> Q P - Q S attenuation relation is calculated for each station by taking the spectral ratio of converted phases to their parent body‐wave arrivals. For the Seattle basin, our analysis yields an average Q P "> Q P value of 73 and an average Q S "> Q S value of 60 for seismic waves with frequencies between 2 and 25 Hz. In the Tualatin basin, a much reduced Q P – Q S "> Q P – Q S relation suggests that average body‐wave attenuation is likely higher than in the Seattle basin. The converted phase techniques presented here provide a reliable way to develop estimates of basin depth and attenuation structure for undercharacterized regions using simple passive source seismic records.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Evaluating spectral ratio methods for characterizing fundamental resonance peaks on flat sediments: An example from the Atlantic Coastal Plain, Eastern United States

Damaging ground motions from the 2011 M w "> M w 5.8 Virginia earthquake were likely increased due to site amplification from the unconsolidated sediments of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP), highlighting the need to understand site response on these widespread strata along the coastal regions of the eastern United States. The horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method, using either earthquake signals or ambient noise as input, offers an appealing method for measuring site response on laterally extensive sediments, because it requires a single seismometer rather than requiring a nearby bedrock site to compute a horizontal sediment‐to‐bedrock spectral ratio (SBSR). Although previous studies show mixed results when comparing the two methods, the majority of these studies investigated site responses in confined sedimentary basins that can generate substantial 3D effects or have relatively small reflection coefficients at their base. In contrast, the flat‐lying ACP strata and the underlying bedrock reflector should cause 1D resonance effects to dominate site response, with amplification of the fundamental resonance peaks controlled by the strong impedance contrast between the base of the sediments and the underlying bedrock. We compare site‐response estimates on the ACP strata derived using the HVSR and SBSR methods from teleseismic signals recorded by regional arrays and observe a close match in the frequencies of the fundamental resonance peak ( ⁠ f 0 "> f 0 ⁠ ) determined by both methods. We find that correcting the HVSR amplitude using source term information from a bedrock site and multiplying the peak by a factor of 1.2 results in amplitude peaks that, on average, match SBSR results within a factor of 2. We therefore conclude that the HVSR method may successfully estimate regional linear weak‐motion site‐response amplifications from the ACP, or similar geologic environments, when appropriate region‐specific corrections to the amplitude ratios are used.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗

USGS2021

The seismic hazard implications of declustering and poisson assumptions inferred from a fully time‐dependent model

We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although declustering is necessary to infer the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquake rates, the question is whether it is also necessary to honor the Poisson assumption in classic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We use 500,000 yr, M ≥ 2.5 synthetic catalogs to address this question, for which UCERF3‐ETAS exhibits realistic spatiotemporal clustering effects (e.g., aftershocks). We find that Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering, used in the U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models, lowers 2% in 50 yr and risk‐targeted ground‐motion hazard metrics by about 4% on average (compared with the full time‐dependent [TD] model), with the reduction being 5% at 40% in 50 yr ground motions. Keeping all earthquakes and treating them as a Poisson process increases these same hazard metrics by about 3%–12%, on average, due to the removal of relatively quiet time periods in the full TD model. In the interest of model simplification, bias minimization, and consideration of the probabilities of multiple exceedances, we agree with others ( Marzocchi and Taroni, 2014 ) that we are better off keeping aftershocks and treating them as a Poisson process rather than removing them from hazard consideration via declustering. Honoring the true time dependence, however, will likely be important for other hazard and risk metrics, and this study further exemplifies how this can now be evaluated more extensively.

California↗