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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Stable isotope deltas: Tiny, yet robust signatures in nature

Although most of them are relatively small, stable isotope deltas of naturally occurring substances are robust and enable workers in anthropology, atmospheric sciences, biology, chemistry, environmental sciences, food and drug authentication, forensic science, geochemistry, geology, oceanography, and paleoclimatology to study a variety of topics. Two fundamental processes explain the stable isotope deltas measured in most terrestrial systems: isotopic fractionation and isotope mixing. Isotopic fractionation is the result of equilibrium or kinetic physicochemical processes that fractionate isotopes because of small differences in physical or chemical properties of molecular species having different isotopes. It is shown that the mixing of radioactive and stable isotope end members can be modelled to provide information on many natural processes, including 14C abundances in the modern atmosphere and the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions of the oceans during glacial and interglacial times. The calculation of mixing fractions using isotope balance equations with isotope deltas can be substantially in error when substances with high concentrations of heavy isotopes (e.g. 13C, 2H, and 18O ) are mixed. In such cases, calculations using mole fractions are preferred as they produce accurate mixing fractions. Isotope deltas are dimensionless quantities. In the International System of Units (SI), these quantities have the unit 1 and the usual list of prefixes is not applicable. To overcome traditional limitations with expressing orders of magnitude differences in isotope deltas, we propose the term urey (symbol Ur), after Harold C. Urey, for the unit 1. In such a manner, an isotope delta value expressed traditionally as−25 per mil can be written as−25 mUr (or−2.5 cUr or−0.25 dUr; the use of any SI prefix is possible). Likewise, very small isotopic differences often expressed in per meg ‘units’ are easily included (e.g. either+0.015 ‰ or+15 per meg can be written as+15 μUr.

Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies↗
USGS2003

Mechanism for generating the anomalous uplift of oceanic core complexes: Atlantis Bank, southwest Indian Ridge

Atlantis Bank is an anomalously uplifted oceanic core complex adjacent to the Atlantis II transform, on the southwest Indian Ridge, that rises >3 km above normal seafloor of the same age. Models of flexural uplift due to detachment faulting can account for ???1 km of this uplift. Postdetachment normal faults have been observed during submersible dives and on swath bathymetry. Two transform-parallel, large-offset (hundreds of meters) normal faults are identified on the eastern flank of Atlantis Bank, with numerous smaller faults (tens of meters) on the western flank. Flexural uplift associated with this transform-parallel normal faulting is consistent with gravity data and can account for the remaining anomalous uplift of Atlantis Bank. Extension normal to the Atlantis II transform may have occurred during a 12 m.y. period of transtension initiated by a 10?? change in spreading direction ca. 19.5 Ma. This extension may have produced the 120-km-long transverse ridge of which Atlantis Bank is a part, and is consistent with stress reorientation about a weak transform fault.

Geology↗
USGS2017

A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

Journal of Physical Oceanography↗
USGS2013

Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts

Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastal communities, such as the loss of homes built on retreating sea cliffs or protective dunes eroded by storm waves. Sometimes, however, the changes can be positive, such as new habitat created by storm deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is meeting the need for scientific understanding of how our coasts respond to different hazards with continued assessments of current and future changes along U.S. coastlines. Through the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH), the USGS carries out the unique task of quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United States and its territories. Residents of coastal communities, emergency managers, and other stakeholders can use science-based data, tools, models, and other products to improve planning and enhance resilience.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Evaluation of the Bushy Park Reservoir three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model, South Carolina, 2012–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is a relatively shallow impoundment in southeastern South Carolina. The reservoir, located under a semi-tropical climate, is the principal water supply for the city of Charleston, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas including the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Although there was an adequate supply of freshwater in the reservoir in 2022, water-quality concerns are present over taste-and-odor and saltwater-intrusion issues. From 2013 to 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Charleston Water System, engaged in a multi-year study of the hydrology and hydrodynamics of Bushy Park Reservoir to better understand factors affecting water-quality conditions in the reservoir. As part of this study, Charleston Water System worked with Tetra Tech, Inc., a consulting and engineering firm, to develop a Bushy Park Reservoir hydrodynamic and water-quality modeling framework, built upon earlier efforts by both Tetra Tech and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. At the completion of the new modeling framework, the USGS was requested to evaluate the calibrated hydrodynamic and water-quality model. The Bushy Park Reservoir Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model was calibrated for the time period from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2015. The general modeling approach for the newly revised modeling framework, as briefly detailed in this report, was developed with EFDC. The EFDC is a grid-based modeling package that can simulate three-dimensional flow, transport, and water quality in surface-water systems. This report evaluated the capacity of Tetra Tech’s Bushy Park EFDC model to simulate water discharge, water circulation, surface elevations, temperature, salinity, and other water-quality parameters. The USGS model review focused specifically on the following criteria: (1) determine if the model, with additional effort, could be developed into an adequate planning tool for Bushy Park Reservoir; (2) assess the capacity of the model to specifically address water-quality issues in the reservoir related to taste-and-odor and saltwater intrusions; and, (3) evaluate three preliminary water-management scenarios related to reduced water withdrawals in the reservoir and the effect on saltwater intrusion. Overall, the model was able to simulate discharge, flow velocity, and water-surface elevations with generally good agreement between the simulated and measured values. Specifically, the model was able to demonstrate good agreement for discharge at two USGS continuous discharge locations (USGS station 02172002; USGS station 02172040), with Wilmott index of agreements of 0.86 and 0.75, respectively. A total of seven USGS streamgages, located on the West Branch of the Cooper River, Durham Canal, and the Cooper River, were available for water-surface elevations, with index of agreements ranging from 0.74 to 0.99. However, model-simulated water-surface elevation ranges were appreciably high (compared to measured ranges) for two locations near Pinopolis Dam, farthest upstream on the West Branch of the Cooper River. This result may indicate that too much simulated tidal energy propagated through the model domain. For water temperature, 16 calibration stations were available for at least part of the 4-year simulation. The index of agreement range for temperature comparisons was from 0.95 to 1.00, indicating excellent agreement between the measured and simulated results. One of the primary future applications for the Bushy Park Reservoir EFDC model is to determine the extent of saltwater intrusions. A wide range in the salinity prediction quality was simulated with the model. The prediction quality ranged from an index of agreement of 0.15 at Cooper River approximately 2.75 miles southeast of the Tee, South Carolina, to 0.92 at West Branch Cooper River near Moncks Corner, South Carolina. Although the model did not accurately simulate some of the larger salinity deviations resulting during individual hydrologic events, the seasonal salinity trends were adequately simulated with the model during the study period (2012–15). Therefore, it may be difficult to simulate extreme hydrologic events, such as during large storms, where high salinity water is exchanged with Bushy Park Reservoir. There was agreement in model simulation with the measured data either on the quantitative index of agreement values or qualitative agreement in the seasonal salinity data trends. For water quality, the index of agreement values were generally low for total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate. Although general trends were adequately simulated at specific stations, particularly for Bushy Park Reservoir, the model-simulated fit was low across all the constituents described above with index of agreements usually below 0.50. A limitation for simulating nutrient concentrations across the model domain was the lack of characterization for the constituents directly entering Bushy Park Reservoir, or the lack of data directly attributed to the boundary condition (for example, the Cooper River). The other two calibrated water-quality constituents (besides the nutrients mentioned above) were dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a . Dissolved oxygen varied from index of agreement values from 0.58 to 0.94 for 11 stations, generally indicating agreement with the available measured data. Chlorophyll a , calibrated for seven stations, had a wider range from 0.11 to 0.74 for the index of agreement. With the current modeling framework, taste-and-odor events, related to cyanobacterial blooms, cannot be directly simulated. However, indirect estimates of cyanobacteria concentrations may be obtained by using the chlorophyll a model outputs, which represent total phytoplankton biomass, and the phytoplankton biovolume data by group (diatoms, green algae, cyanobacteria and others) collected from 2012 to 2015. For the Bushy Park Reservoir modeling framework to be used directly for taste-and-odor issues, cyanobacteria must be simulated and calibrated based on observations of cyanobacteria biomass concentrations. In addition to the cyanobacteria sampling conducted within the reservoir between 2012 and 2015, the new model calibration would also require new algae biomass data-collection efforts to characterize the external sources of cyanobacteria entering the Bushy Park Reservoir from tributaries, as well as the internal cycling, production, and decay of cyanobacteria in the hydrologic system. Further improvements to the EFDC model would include expanding the collection of boundary condition datasets, such as water-quality monitoring to determine improved nutrient loads into the model domain. Along with improved water-quality monitoring for the major boundary conditions, continuous discharge, for both Foster Creek and the Back River, would further constrain the flow balance and the loads into Bushy Park Reservoir. In addition to better boundary-condition characterization, it is important to better characterize possible shortcomings specifically to the model domain, such as the grid resolution, bathymetry, and numerical hydrodynamic errors. Further consideration of the model may involve a sensitivity analysis to determine if errors in the simulation outputs, such as discharge, water-surface elevations, and salinity, were more likely caused by poor boundary condition characterization or, specifically, the model setup. Three model scenarios were run with the revised Bushy Park Reservoir model: (1) reduced withdrawals from one of the large intake-discharge locations for Bushy Park Reservoir, the Williams Station; (2) elevated (above background levels) ocean water level causing saltwater intrusion from the ocean through Durham Canal into Bushy Park Reservoir; and (3) overtopping of the Back River Dam at the southernmost end of Bushy Park Reservoir. For the reduced withdrawals scenarios, the largest shift in flow resulted near the Williams Station intake, with the next largest flow change at the southern end of Bushy Park Reservoir, and a net increase in flow out of the Bushy Park Reservoir to the Cooper River by way of the Durham Canal. The effect resulting from scenario 3 on water quality and salinity was small, with larger increases for dissolved oxygen than other constituents at several monitoring stations. For the two scenarios related to saltwater intrusion (including dam overtopping), the changes in salinity generally were found to dissipate in the following 2 weeks and generally back to baseline salinity conditions within 3 months. This result did vary depending on the severity of the storm or length of the dam overtopping event.

South Carolina↗
USGS1995

Precipitation depth-duration and frequency characteristics for Antelope Valley, Mojave Desert, California

Methods to evaluate changes in the volume of storm runoff from drainage basins that are likely to be urbanized are needed by land-use planning agencies to establish criteria for the design of flood-control systems. To document the changes in runoff volume of basins that may be urbanized, nine small basins that are considered representative of varying hydrologic conditions in Antelope Valley, California, were selected for detailed study. Precipitation and stream-gaging stations were established and data were collected for the period 1990-93. The data collected at these U.S. Geological Survey stations were supplemented by data collected at 35 Long-term precipitation stations operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works. These data will be used to calibrate and verify rainfall-runoff models for the nine basins. Results of the model runs will then be used as a guide for estimating basin runoff characteristics throughout Antelope Valley. Annual precipitation in Antelope Valley ranges from more than 20 inches in the mountains to less than 4 inches on the valley floor. Most precipitation in the valley falls during the months of December through March, but cyclonic storms in the fall and convectional storms in the summer sometimes occur. The duration of most storms ranges from 1 to 8 days, but most of the precipitation usually occurs within the first 2 days. Many parts of the valley have been affected by storms with precipitation depths that equal or exceed 0.60 inch per hour. The storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense storms of record, with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years in some parts of the valley. Depth-duration ratios were calculated by disaggregating daily total precipitation data for intervals of 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 18 hours for storms that occurred during 1990-93. The hourly total precipitation data were then disaggregated at 5-minute intervals. A comparison of the depth-duration data collected during 1990-93 at the Geological Survey stations with the data collected at the other stations indicated that the 1990-93 data are not representative of historical storms. Therefore, depth-duration ratios developed using these data should be considered preliminary for use in disaggregating the historical hourly data for Antelope Valley. Annual maximum 24-hour precipitation records were used to calculate precipitation depth-frequency relations for 23 stations in the valley using the log Pearson type III distribution. These calculations indicate that the storms of January 1943 and March 1983 were the most intense of record in the valley with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2010

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large‐scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

Long‐term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large‐scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record‐high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two‐thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

California↗
USGS2011

A conduit dilation model of methane venting from lake sediments

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but its effects on Earth's climate remain poorly constrained, in part due to uncertainties in global methane fluxes to the atmosphere. An important source of atmospheric methane is the methane generated in organic-rich sediments underlying surface water bodies, including lakes, wetlands, and the ocean. The fraction of the methane that reaches the atmosphere depends critically on the mode and spatiotemporal characteristics of free-gas venting from the underlying sediments. Here we propose that methane transport in lake sediments is controlled by dynamic conduits, which dilate and release gas as the falling hydrostatic pressure reduces the effective stress below the tensile strength of the sediments. We test our model against a four-month record of hydrostatic load and methane flux in Upper Mystic Lake, Mass., USA, and show that it captures the complex episodicity of methane ebullition. Our quantitative conceptualization opens the door to integrated modeling of methane transport to constrain global methane release from lakes and other shallow-water, organic-rich sediment systems, and to assess its climate feedbacks.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2013

cBathy: A robust algorithm for estimating nearshore bathymetry

A three-part algorithm is described and tested to provide robust bathymetry maps based solely on long time series observations of surface wave motions. The first phase consists of frequency-dependent characterization of the wave field in which dominant frequencies are estimated by Fourier transform while corresponding wave numbers are derived from spatial gradients in cross-spectral phase over analysis tiles that can be small, allowing high-spatial resolution. Coherent spatial structures at each frequency are extracted by frequency-dependent empirical orthogonal function (EOF). In phase two, depths are found that best fit weighted sets of frequency-wave number pairs. These are subsequently smoothed in time in phase 3 using a Kalman filter that fills gaps in coverage and objectively averages new estimates of variable quality with prior estimates. Objective confidence intervals are returned. Tests at Duck, NC, using 16 surveys collected over 2 years showed a bias and root-mean-square (RMS) error of 0.19 and 0.51 m, respectively but were largest near the offshore limits of analysis (roughly 500 m from the camera) and near the steep shoreline where analysis tiles mix information from waves, swash and static dry sand. Performance was excellent for small waves but degraded somewhat with increasing wave height. Sand bars and their small-scale alongshore variability were well resolved. A single ground truth survey from a dissipative, low-sloping beach (Agate Beach, OR) showed similar errors over a region that extended several kilometers from the camera and reached depths of 14 m. Vector wave number estimates can also be incorporated into data assimilation models of nearshore dynamics.

North Carolina↗
USGS2019

Seasonal, spring-neap, and tidal variation in cohesive sediment transport parameters in estuarine shallows

Numerical models for predicting sediment concentrations and transport rely on parameters such as settling velocity and bed erodibility that describe sediment characteristics, yet these parameters are rarely probed directly. We investigated temporal and spatial variation in sediment parameters in the shallows of San Pablo Bay, CA. Flow, turbulence, and suspended sediment data were measured at sites located at 1 and 2 m below mean lower low water (MLLW) from November 2013 through April 2015, supplemented by monthlong periods in 2011, 2012, and 2016. Maximum current velocities were 0.40–0.47 m s -1 at these depths; the strongest currents decreased to 0.27–0.34 m s -1 during neap periods. Winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 experienced strong drought conditions, limiting the potential for seasonal impact on sediment conditions during this experiment. Despite this, the more storm‐influenced site showed clear changes during the winter: the roughness parameter decreased from 10 −4 to 10 −5 m, from hydrodynamically rough to smooth conditions, and bed erodibility increased by an order of magnitude. Median settling velocity was 2.05·10 −4 m s -1 ; it varied twofold within a tidal cycle, decreasing as current velocity grew during flood and ebb. This tidal control on floc size affected settling velocity on the spring‐neap timescale, possibly driving a spring‐neap oscillation in erodibility. Our findings highlight variation in sediment dynamics that is commonly ignored in numerical models and the need for field observations to ground truth ongoing modeling efforts.

California↗
USGS1996

Inelastic models of lithospheric stress - II. Implications for outer-rise seismicity and dynamics

Outer-rise seismicity and dynamics are examined using inelastic models of lithospheric deformation, which allow a more realistic characterization of stress distributions and failure behaviour. We conclude that thrust- and normal-faulting outer-rise earthquakes represent substantially different states of stress within the oceanic lithosphere. Specifically, the normal-faulting events occur in response to downward plate bending, which establishes the ‘standard’, bending-dominated state of outer-rise stress, and the thrust-faulting events occur in response to an elevated level of in-plane compression, which develops only in response to exceptional circumstances. This interpretation accounts for the observation that normal-faulting outer-rise earthquakes occur more frequently and are more widely distributed than their thrust-faulting counterparts, an observation for which the simple bending model offers no explanation. In addition, attributing both thrust- and normal-faulting outer-rise earthquakes to plate bending implies that both classes of events should occur within relatively close lateral proximity to one another because both are allegedly a manifestation of the same bendingdominated stress distribution, whereas, in reality, this is not observed. We propose that the tendency for thrust-faulting outer-rise earthquakes to exhibit greater source depths than their normal-faulting counterparts (an observation that is frequently cited in support of the bending interpretation of the former) is merely a consequence of the fact that bending-induced tension is confined to the upper lithosphere. Our model predicts that outer-rise in-plane-force variations may promote thrust-faulting outerrise activity prior to an underthrusting interplate subduction earthquake and normalfaulting outer-rise activity following such an earthquake, but that both forms of outerrise activity are unlikely to be associated with the same subduction earthquake. A corollary implication of our model is t...

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2019

Morphodynamic modelling of the wilderness breach, Fire Island, New York. Part I: Model set-up and validation

On October 29, 2012, storm surge and large waves produced by Hurricane 13 Sandy resulted in the formation of a breach in eastern Fire Island, NY. The goals of this study 14 are to gain a better understanding of the physical processes that govern breach behavior and 15 to assess whether process-based models can be used to forecast the evolution of future 16 breaches. The Wilderness Breach grew rapidly in size during the first winter following 17 formation. Growth of the breach was accompanied by the formation of a complex of flood 18 shoals inside Great South Bay, a primary channel that flowed through the eastern part of the 19 flood shoals, and an ebb shoal on the ocean side of the breach. From the summer of 2013 20 through late 2015, the breach continued to change and evolve, albeit at a much slower pace 21 than in the first year after formation. A hybrid combination of Delft3D and XBeach models is 22 used to hindcast the morphodynamic evolution of the Wilderness Breach over the first three 23 years after formation. The formation of the breach during Hurricane Sandy is not part of the 24 simulations. Model simulations are initiated with a post-storm topography in which the 25 breach is already present. The models are capable of hindcasting the main morphodynamic 26 changes of the Wilderness Breach. The spatial patterns, as well as the bulk statistics, such as 27 2 breach geometry and sediment volume changes, are reasonably 28 well reproduced by the model. 29 The model sheds light on previously unknown processes of breach evolution, especially 30 regarding sediment transport and flow regimes within the breach complex.

New York↗
USGS1987

Simulation of tidal flow and circulation patterns in the Loxahatchee River Estuary, southeastern Florida

Results of a two-dimensional, vertically averaged, computer simulation model of the Loxahatchee River estuary show that under typical low freshwater inflow and vertically well mixed conditions, water circulation is dominated by freshwater inflow rather than by tidal influence. The model can simulate tidal flow and circulation in the Loxahatchee River estuary under typical low freshwater inflow and vertically well mixed conditions, but is limited, however, to low-flow and well mixed conditions. Computed patterns of residual water transport show a consistent seaward flow from the northwest fork through the central embayment and out Jupiter Inlet to the Atlantic Ocean. A large residual seaward flow was computed from the North Intracoastal Waterway to the inlet channel. Although the tide produces large flood and ebb flows in the estuary, tide-induced residual transport rates are low in comparison with freshwater-induced residual transport. Model investigations of partly mixed or stratified conditions in the estuary need to await development of systems capable of simulating three-dimensional flow patterns. (Author 's abstract)

Florida↗
USGS2016

Observations of nearshore groundwater discharge: Kahekili Beach Park submarine springs, Maui, Hawaii

Study region The study region encompasses the nearshore, coastal waters off west Maui, Hawaii. Here abundant groundwater—that carries with it a strong land-based fingerprint—discharges into the coastal waters and over a coral reef. Study focus Coastal groundwater discharge is a ubiquitous hydrologic feature that has been shown to impact nearshore ecosystems and material budgets. A unique combined geochemical tracer and oceanographic time-series study addressed rates and oceanic forcings of submarine groundwater discharge at a submarine spring site off west Maui, Hawaii. New hydrological insights for the region Estimates of submarine groundwater discharge were derived for a primary vent site and surrounding coastal waters off west Maui, Hawaii using an excess 222 Rn ( t 1/2 = 3.8 d) mass balance model. Such estimates were complemented with a novel thoron ( 220 Rn, t 1/2 = 56 s) groundwater discharge tracer application, as well as oceanographic time series and thermal infrared imagery analyses. In combination, this suite of techniques provides new insight into the connectivity of the coastal aquifer with the near-shore ocean and examines the physical drivers of submarine groundwater discharge. Lastly, submarine groundwater discharge derived constituent concentrations were tabulated and compared to surrounding seawater concentrations. Such work has implications for the management of coastal aquifers and downstream nearshore ecosystems that respond to sustained constituent loadings via this submarine route.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution of these inlet-interrupted coasts is better assessed by considering the entirety of the Catchment-Estuary-Coastal (CEC) systems, under plausible future scenarios for climate change and increasing pressures due to population growth and human activities. Such a holistic assessment of the long-term evolution of CEC systems can be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, which are also ably quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projections due to their lower simulation times. Here, we develop a novel probabilistic modeling framework to quantify the input-driven uncertainties associated with the evolution of CEC systems over the 21 st century. In this new approach, probabilistic assessment of the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is achieved by (1) probabilistically computing the exchange sediment volume between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volumes along the inlet-interrupted coast. The model is applied at three case study sites: Alsea estuary (United States), Dyfi estuary (United Kingdom), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Model results indicate that there are significant uncertainties in projected volume exchange at all the CEC systems (min-max range of 2.0 million cubic meters in 2100 for RCP 8.5), and the uncertainties in these projected volumes illustrate the need for probabilistic modeling approaches to evaluate the long-term evolution of CEC systems. A comparison of 50 th percentile probabilistic projections with deterministic estimates shows that the deterministic approach overestimates the sediment volume exchange in 2100 by 15–30% at Alsea and Kalutara estuary systems. Projections of coastline change obtained for the case study sites show that accounting for all key processes governing coastline change along inlet-interrupted coasts in computing coastline change results in projections that are between 20 and 134% greater than the projections that would be obtained if only the Bruun effect were taken into account, underlining the inaccuracies associated with using the Bruun rule at inlet-interrupted coasts.

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics↗
USGS2024

Modeling the potential spread of the non-native regal demoiselle, Neopomacentrus cyanomos, in the western Atlantic

Predicting the potential distribution of a non-native species can assist management efforts to mitigate impacts on recipient ecosystems. However, such predictions are lacking for marine species, such as the non-native regal demoiselle, Neopomacentrus cyanomos , that is currently expanding its distribution in the western Atlantic. We used correlative species distribution models with three common algorithms to predict suitable habitat for N. cyanomos in the region. We compared models developed using native, non-native, and global occurrences to differentiate drivers across separate ranges using a suite of 12 environmental characteristics. While final models included an ensemble of variables, the majority ranked the combined effect of temperature variables as a key predictor correlated with the distribution of N. cyanomos. Habitat suitability increased as water temperatures increased beyond 16 °C and where annual thermal ranges were greater than 10 °C at the shallowest depth with substrate within a study cell (~ 9.2 km 2 resolution). Habitat suitability also increased where maximum surface temperatures were greater than 27 °C. In the non-native range, the proportion of reef available in each cell was another important variable increasing the suitable habitat for N. cyanomos . Our models predicted high habitat suitability for N. cyanomos throughout the Greater Caribbean, in higher latitudes along North and South American Atlantic coasts, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and highlights key areas where managers can monitor and target potential removal efforts. The distribution of this non-native species is likely to continue expanding throughout the region with little known about potential implications on native communities.

Coral Reefs↗
USGS1987

Origins of seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer - A case study of the Pajaro Valley, California

Seawater may enter and contaminate stratified coastal aquifers through a number of different pathways. These pathways and their relative contribution are examined in the Pajaro Valley, California, a coastal area with extensive groundwater development. This study considers three pathways of possible intrusion of the primary confined aquifer: (1) onshore leakage from brackish sources, the estuary and sloughs, through the confining layer; (2) near-shore leakage from the ocean through the confining layer; and (3) offshore flow from the ocean through the submarine canyon outcrop of the aquifer. Groundwater flow and seawater intrusion are simulated using an areal, two-dimensional solute-transport computer model. This analysis indicates that leakage through confining layers is the principal mechanism of recharge to the aquifer. Although lateral flow through the offshore outcrop contaminates the aquifer, as a whole, at a higher rate, vertical leakage through the sea floor initially is the main pathway of seawater intrusion to the onshore portion of the aquifer. It is likely that leakage generally is the dominant mechanism of recharge and initial cause of seawater intrusion for poorly-confined, stratified coastal aquifers. This analysis suggests that a significant time interval follows the initial observation of seawater intrusion, during which remedial action can be taken to control lateral flow through the offshore outcrop, which ultimately will be the largest component of future intrusion in these aquifers.

California↗
USGS2019

Isotopic ratios of Saturn's rings and satellites: Implications for the origin of water and Phoebe

Isotopic ratios have long been used to learn about physical processes acting over a wide range of geological environments, and in constraining the origin and/or evolution of planetary bodies. We report the spectroscopic detection of deuterium in Saturn's rings and satellites, and use these measurements to determine the (D/H) ratios in their near-surface regions. Saturn's moons, Phoebe and Iapetus, show a strong signature of CO2 and the 13C component of this molecule is detected and quantified. Large averages of spectra obtained by the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer, VIMS, were computed for the rings and icy satellites. The observed intensities of the infrared absorptions in H2O and CO2 and their isotopes were calibrated using laboratory data and radiative transfer models to derive the D/H and 13C/12C ratios. We find that the D/H in Saturn's rings and satellites is close to the Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) and bulk Earth (4% lower than VSMOW) value except for Phoebe, which is 8.3 times the VSMOW value. This is the highest value for any Solar-System surface yet measured, and suggests that Phoebe formed from material with a different D/H ratio than the other satellites in the Saturn system. Phoebe’s 13C/12C ratio is also unusual: 4.7 times greater than terrestrial, and greater than values measured for the interstellar medium and the galactic center. The high 13C abundance in the CO2 suggests that Phoebe was never warm enough for the large D/H ratio in its surface to have originated by evaporative fractionation of its waterice (e.g., from heating in the inner Solar System before its eventual capture by Saturn). We also report the detection of a probable O-D stretch absorption due to OD in minerals on Phoebe at 3.62 μm. This absorption is not detected on other Saturnian satellites. Stronger signatures of bound water absorptions are found in the dark material of Iapetus and we report a new detection of bound water at 1.9 μm. The position of this absorption matches that seen in spectra of hydrated iron oxides but does not match absorptions seen in spectra of tholins. Despite the strong bound water signature in the Iapetus dark material, no 3.62-μm OD absorption is seen in the spectra, further indicating the high deuterium level on Phoebe is unusual. As such, it is likely that Phoebe originated in a colder part of the outer Solar System, relative to the prevailing temperatures at Saturn’s distance from the Sun.

Icarus↗