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USGS2007

Comparison of four approaches to a rock facies classification problem

In this study, seven classifiers based on four different approaches were tested in a rock facies classification problem: classical parametric methods using Bayes' rule, and non-parametric methods using fuzzy logic, k-nearest neighbor, and feed forward-back propagating artificial neural network. Determining the most effective classifier for geologic facies prediction in wells without cores in the Panoma gas field, in Southwest Kansas, was the objective. Study data include 3600 samples with known rock facies class (from core) with each sample having either four or five measured properties (wire-line log curves), and two derived geologic properties (geologic constraining variables). The sample set was divided into two subsets, one for training and one for testing the ability of the trained classifier to correctly assign classes. Artificial neural networks clearly outperformed all other classifiers and are effective tools for this particular classification problem. Classical parametric models were inadequate due to the nature of the predictor variables (high dimensional and not linearly correlated), and feature space of the classes (overlapping). The other non-parametric methods tested, k-nearest neighbor and fuzzy logic, would need considerable improvement to match the neural network effectiveness, but further work, possibly combining certain aspects of the three non-parametric methods, may be justified. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computers & Geosciences↗

USGS2009

The Ecology of Parasite-Host Interactions at Montezuma Well National Monument, Arizona - Appreciating the Importance of Parasites

Although parasites play important ecological roles through the direct interactions they have with their hosts, historically that fact has been underappreciated. Today, scientists have a growing appreciation of the scope of such impacts. Parasites have been reported to dominate food webs, alter predator-prey relationships, act as ecosystem engineers, and alter community structure. In spite of this growing awareness in the scientific community, parasites are still often neglected in the consideration of the management and conservation of resources and ecosystems. Given that at least half of the organisms on earth are probably parasitic, it should be evident that the ecological functions of parasites warrant greater attention. In this report, we explore different aspects of parasite-host relationships found at a desert spring pond within Montezuma Well National Monument, Arizona. In three separate but related chapters, we explore interactions between a novel amphipod host and two parasites. First, we identify how host behavior responds to this association and how this association affects interactions with both invertebrate non-host predators and a vertebrate host predator. Second, we look at the human dimension, investigating how human recreation can indirectly affect patterns of disease by altering patterns of vertebrate host space use. Finally - because parasites and diseases are of increasing importance in the management of wildlife species, especially those that are imperiled or of management concern - the third chapter argues that research would benefit from increased attention to the statistical analysis of wildlife disease studies. This report also explores issues of statistical parasitology, providing information that may better inform those designing research projects and analyzing data from studies of wildlife disease. In investigating the nature of parasite-host interactions, the role that relationships play in ecological communities, and how human activities alter these associations, scientists usually make inferences by methods of statistical hypotheses testing. This type of hypothesis testing places additional importance on the analysis and interpretation of parasite-host interactions. We address these ideas in this report, focusing on the following questions: (1) How do two parasites with complex life cycles alter the behavior of a novel amphipod host, and how do host and non-host predators respond to infected amphipod prey? (2) Does human recreation affect spatial patterns of infection in an otherwise natural ecosystem? (3) How is hypothesis-testing applied in studies of wildlife disease? (4) What conclusions can we make about the relative usefulness of these methodologies? and (5) How can the analysis and interpretation of wildlife disease studies be improved? Each chapter of this report contains its own literature-cited section, with tables included in appendixes at the end of the full report.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2006

Approach to an assessment of volatile organic compounds in the nation's ground water and drinking-water supply wells

The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed an approach for a national assessment of the occurrence, status, and distribution of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in samples of ground water from aquifer studies and in samples from drinking-water supply wells, specifically domestic and public wells. Data on VOCs in samples from aquifers and from domestic and public wells had three sources: (1) NAWQA sampling of ground water in aquifer studies and of shallow ground water in areas of agricultural or urban land use from 1993-2002, (2) retrospective data from other Federal, State, and local agencies that sampled ground water in aquifer studies from 1985-1997, and (3) sampling of ground water from public wells used as a source of drinking water from 1999-2000 (source-water survey). Data for assessing VOCs in ground water came from the NAWQA sampling of aquifers and from retrospective data (1 and 2). Domestic wells were the most commonly sampled well type in these aquifer studies. Data for assessing VOCs in domestic well samples came from the NAWQA sampling of aquifers and shallow ground water and from retrospective data (1 and 2). Data for assessing VOCs in public well samples came from NAWQA sampling of aquifers and shallow ground water and from the source-water survey (1, 2, and 3). Fifty-five VOCs were included in the national assessment. All ground-water samples were collected using consistent, prescribed field protocols and were analyzed using approved analytical methods. All ground-water collection activities and laboratory procedures included the collection of various quality-control samples in order to ensure the quality of the data. Comparisons of detection frequencies and detected concentrations among individual VOCs, groups of VOCs, aquifer studies, and data sets were performed using two assessment levels: (1) an assessment level of 0.2 microgram per liter (?g/L), and (2) an assessment level of 0.02 ?g/L. Selection of the 0.2-?g/L assessment level was based on historical laboratory reporting levels of VOCs used by the USGS National Water-Quality Laboratory (NWQL) prior to April 1996, and selection of the 0.02-?g/L assessment level was based on a new, low-level analytical method developed by the NWQL and used since April 1996. Relational analyses using multivariate logistic regression were performed on VOC data from aquifers, domestic wells, and public wells to better understand the natural and anthropogenic factors that control or influence the occurrence of VOCs. Ancillary data used in the relational analyses represent a variety of anthropogenic and hydrogeologic controls on the occurrence of VOCs. For aquifers, relational analyses were performed only on NAWQA data analyzed using the new low-level analytical method for 10 frequently detected VOCs. For domestic wells, relational analyses were performed at assessment levels of 0.2 ?g/L and 0.02 ?g/L for 6 and 10 frequently detected VOCs at these levels. For public wells, relational analyses were performed at an assessment level of 0.2 ?g/L for nine frequently detected VOCs.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Biogeochemical aspects of uranium mineralization, mining, milling, and remediation

Natural uranium (U) occurs as a mixture of three radioactive isotopes: 238 U, 235 U, and 234 U. Only 235 U is fissionable and makes up about 0.7% of natural U, while 238 U is overwhelmingly the most abundant at greater than 99% of the total mass of U. Prior to the 1940s, U was predominantly used as a coloring agent, and U-bearing ores were mined mainly for their radium (Ra) and/or vanadium (V) content; the bulk of the U was discarded with the tailings (Finch et al., 1972). Once nuclear fission was discovered, the economic importance of U increased greatly. The mining and milling of U-bearing ores is the first step in the nuclear fuel cycle, and the contact of residual waste with natural water is a potential source of contamination of U and associated elements to the environment. Uranium is mined by three basic methods: surface (open pit), underground, and solution mining (in situ leaching or in situ recovery), depending on the deposit grade, size, location, geology and economic considerations (Abdelouas, 2006). Solid wastes at U mill tailings (UMT) sites can include both standard tailings (i.e., leached ore rock residues) and solids generated on site by waste treatment processes. The latter can include sludge or “mud” from neutralization of acidic mine/mill effluents, containing Fe and a range of coprecipitated constituents, or barium sulfate precipitates that selectively remove Ra (e.g., Carvalho et al., 2007). In this chapter, we review the hydrometallurgical processes by which U is extracted from ore, the biogeochemical processes that can affect the fate and transport of U and associated elements in the environment, and possible remediation strategies for site closure and aquifer restoration. This paper represents the fourth in a series of review papers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on geochemical aspects of UMT management that span more than three decades. The first paper (Landa, 1980) in this series is a primer on the nature of tailings and radionuclide mobilization from them. The second paper (Landa, 1999) includes coverage of research carried out under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action Program (UMTRA). The third paper (Landa, 2004) reflects the increased focus of researchers on biotic effects in UMT environs. This paper expands the focus to U mining, milling, and remedial actions, and includes extensive coverage of the increasingly important alkaline in situ recovery and groundwater restoration.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS1964

Natural carbon-14 activity of organic substances in streams

Carbon-14 measurements made on organic contaminants extracted from streams show percentages of industrial waste and domestic sewage. The method, used previously for studies of the atmosphere, can be used in studies of pollution sources.

Science↗

USGS2014

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

Flooding is among the worst natural disasters responsible for loss of life and property in Arizona, underscoring the importance of accurate estimation of flood magnitude for proper structural design and floodplain mapping. Twenty-four years of additional peak-flow data have been recorded since the last comprehensive regional flood frequency analysis conducted in Arizona. Periodically, flood frequency estimates and regional regression equations must be revised to maintain the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude. Annual peak-flow data collected through water year 2010 were compiled from 448 unregulated streamflow-gaging stations, hereafter referred to as streamgages, in Arizona having a minimum of 10 years of record. Flood frequency estimates were first computed with station (or at-site) skew using the Expected Moments Algorithm with a multiple Grubbs-Beck test to identify multiple potentially influential low flows to fit a Pearson Type III distribution. Next, a multiple step Bayesian least-squares-regression approach was used to determine a new statewide regional skew of −0.09. No basin characteristics analyzed were statistically significant in explaining the variation in skew and as a result, the constant model was chosen as the best regional skew model for the Arizona study area. The mean square error used in Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data is used to describe the precision of the regional skew. The constant model had a mean square error equal to 0.08, which corresponds to an effective record length of 85 years. This is a marked improvement over a previous Arizona regional skew analysis, with a reported mean square error of 0.31, for a corresponding effective record length of around 17 years. Thus the new regional model had almost five times the information content (as measured by effective record length) of that calculated in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433, published in 1997, or the value of 0.302 reported in the B17B generalized skew map. The flood frequency estimates were recalculated using a weighted skew of the station and regional skew. Station flood frequency estimates for each streamgage are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. Geographical information systems were used to compute basin characteristic information for each streamgage for the purpose of developing regional equations to estimate flood statistics at ungaged basins. Five hydrologic flood regions in Arizona were defined in a multivariate regionalization process based on mean basin elevation, mean annual precipitation, and soil permeability. A regional generalized least-squares-regression analysis was used to develop five sets of equations from 344 nonredundant streamgages, corresponding to five regions, for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged basins in Arizona. The regression equations developed for these five regions were based on one or more of the statistically significant explanatory variables: drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression regions for the five regions ranged from 27 to 122 percent and the pseudo-coefficients of determination (pseudo-R 2 ), a measure of the proportion of peak-flow variation that is explained by the basin characteristics, ranged from 68 to 98 percent. Regression equations for Central Highlands (region 4) had the lowest model error and the greatest pseudo-R 2 metrics. The equations for Colorado Plateau (region 2) regression equations generally had greater model error and lower pseudo-R 2 metrics. The improvement of regional regression equation model error and pseudo-R 2 metrics was related to higher numbers of streamgages, longer period of record, and even spatial coverage within a region. The regional regression equations were integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a national map-based web application that allows the public to easily access published flood frequency and basin characteristic statistics. The interactive web application allows a user to select a point within a watershed (gaged or ungaged) and retrieve flood-frequency estimates derived from the current regional regression equations and geographic information system data within the selected basin. StreamStats provides users with an efficient and accurate means for retrieving the most up to date flood frequency and basin characteristic data. StreamStats is intended to provide consistent statistics, minimize user error, and reduce the need for large datasets and costly geographic information system software.

Arizona↗

USGS1988

A field test for differences in condition among trapped and shot mallards

We tested predictions from the condition bias hypothesis (Weatherland and Greenwood 1981) regarding the effects of sampling methods of body weights of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) at White River National Wildlife Refuge (WRNWR), Arkansas, during 24 November-8 December 1985. Body weights of 84 mallards caught with unbaited rocket nets in a natural wetland were used as experimental controls and compared to the body weights of 70 mallards captured with baited rocket nets, 86 mallards captured with baited swim-in traps, and 130 mallards killed by hunters. We found no differences (P > 0.27) in body weight among sampling methods, but body condition (wt/wing length) of the birds killed by hunters was less (P < 0.02) than that of the controls. Power of the test statistics to reject the null hypothesis of equal body weights among sampling methods was > 0.75 for differences > 50 g. The condition bias hypothesis probably applies to ducks killed by hunters but not to trapping operations when substantial (> 20 at 1 time) numbers of birds are captured.

Arkansas↗

USGS2023

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2018

A method to quantify and value floodplain sediment and nutrient retention ecosystem services

Floodplains provide critical ecosystem services to local and downstream communities by retaining floodwaters, sediments, and nutrients. The dynamic nature of floodplains is such that these areas can both accumulate sediment and nutrients through deposition, and export material downstream through erosion. Therefore, estimating floodplain sediment and nutrient retention should consider the net flux of both depositional and erosive processes. An ecosystem services framework was used to quantify and value the sediment and nutrient ecosystem service provided by floodplains in the Difficult Run watershed, a small (151 km 2 ) suburban watershed located in the Piedmont of Virginia (USA). A sediment balance was developed for Difficult Run and two nested watersheds. The balance included upland sediment delivery to streams, stream bank flux, floodplain flux, and stream load. Upland sediment delivery was estimated using geospatial datasets and a modified Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Predictive models were developed to extrapolate field measurements of the flux of sediment, sediment-bound nitrogen (N), and sediment-bound phosphorus (P) from stream banks and floodplains to 3232 delineated stream segments in the study area. A replacement cost approach was used to estimate the economic value of the sediment and nutrient retention ecosystem service based on estimated net stream bank and floodplain flux of sediment-bound N for all streams in the study area. Results indicated the net fluvial fluxes of sediment, sediment-bound N, and sediment-bound P were −10,439 Mg yr −1 (net export), 57,300 kg-N yr −1 (net trapping), and 98 kg-P yr −1 (net trapping), respectively. For sediment, floodplain retention was offset by substantial losses from stream bank erosion, particularly in headwater catchments, resulting in a net export of sediment. Nutrient retention in the floodplain exceeded that lost through stream bank erosion resulting in net retention of nutrients (TN and TP). Using a conservative cost estimate of \$12.69 (USD) per kilogram of nitrogen, derived from wastewater treatment costs, the estimated annual value for sediment and nutrient retention on Difficult Run floodplains was \$727,226 ± 194,220 USD/yr. Values and differences in floodplain nitrogen retention among stream reaches can be used to target areas for floodplain conservation and stream restoration. The methods presented are scalable and transferable to other areas if appropriate datasets are available for validation.

Virginia↗

USGS2019

Age and growth of stocked juvenile Shoal Bass in a tailwater: Environmental variation and accuracy of daily age estimates

Otolith microanalysis is often used to assess population age structure and growth of fishes during their early stages. Shoal Bass Micropterus cataractae is a recently described species of conservation concern and little is known regarding factors affecting their recruitment. In 2004, Georgia Department of Natural Resources (GADNR) and the US National Park Service (NPS) stocked Shoal Bass marked with oxytetracycline (OTC) in the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta, Georgia in an effort to restore this population, creating known-age fish to examine the effect of environment on daily age accuracy. We obtained samples of stocked juvenile (<150 mm) Shoal Bass from standard monitoring that occurred approximately 30–60 days after stocking in the Chattahoochee River to 1) validate daily rings for estimating age, hatch dates, and growth rates for stocked age-0 Shoal Bass, and 2) evaluate the effect of habitat (location) on age bias. Shoal Bass otoliths were examined for OTC marks and daily rings were counted in reference to OTC marks to assess age estimation accuracy. Age estimation accuracy ranged from -2 to -25 days and was influenced by the environment where Shoal Bass were captured, with greater inaccuracy in colder water temperatures. Fish collected from locations with colder temperatures displayed closer spacing of daily rings, potentially leading to greater underestimation of age. Growth rates of stocked Shoal Bass, corrected for age estimation error, ranged from 0.5 mm/day to 0.8 mm/day. This study demonstrates the effect of environmental variability on age inaccuracy and subsequent interpretation of results. Incorporating methods to assess age estimation accuracy is needed to understand interspecific differences in recruitment among black bass species in the variety of natural and human-modified environments they inhabit.

Georgia↗

USGS2023

Forecasting natural regeneration of sagebrush after wildfires using population models and spatial matching

Context Addressing ecosystem degradation in the Anthropocene will require ecological restoration across large spatial extents. Identifying areas where natural regeneration will occur without direct resource investment will improve scalability of restoration actions. Objectives An ecoregion in need of large scale restoration is the Great Basin of the Western US, where increasingly large and frequent wildfires threaten ecosystem integrity and its foundational shrub species. We develop a framework to forecast where post-wildfire regeneration of sagebrush cover ( Artemisia spp.) is likely to occur within the burnt areas across the region (> 900,000 km 2 ). Methods First, we parameterized population models using Landsat satellite-derived time series of sagebrush cover. Second, we evaluated the out-of-sample performance by predicting natural regeneration in wildfires not used for model training. This model assessment reproduces a management-oriented scenario: making restoration decisions shortly after wildfires with minimal local information. Third, we asked how accounting for increasingly fine-scale spatial heterogeneity could improve model forecasting accuracy. Results Regional-level models revealed that sagebrush post-fire recovery is slow, estimating > 80-year time horizon to reach an average cover at equilibrium of 16.6% (CI95% 9–25). Accounting for wildfire and within-wildfire spatial heterogeneity improved out-of-sample forecasts, resulting in a mean absolute error of 3.5 ± 4.3% cover, compared to the regional model with an error of 7.2 ± 5.1% cover. Conclusions We demonstrate that combining population models and non-parametric spatial matching provides a flexible framework for forecasting plant population recovery. Models for population recovery applied to Landsat-derived time series will assist restoration decision-making, including identifying priority targets for restoration.

Great Basin↗

USGS2002

Lyme disease and conservation

Lyme disease is a tick-borne illness that is widespread in North America, especially in the northeastern and northcentral United States. This disease could negatively influence efforts to conserve natural populations in two ways: (1) the disease could directly affect wild animal health; and (2) tick control efforts could adversely affect natural populations and communities. Lyme disease affects several domestic animals, but symptoms have been reported in only a few wild species. Direct effects of Lyme disease on wild animal populations have not been reported, but the disease should be considered as a possible cause in cases of unexplained population declines in endemic areas. Methods available to manage ticks and Lyme disease include human self-protection techniques, manipulation of habitats and host species populations, biological control, and pesticide applications. The diversity of available techniques allows selection of approaches to minimize environmental effects by (1) emphasizing personal protection techniques, (2) carefully targeting management efforts to maximize efficiency, and (3) integrating environmentally benign techniques to improve management while avoiding broad-scale environmentally destructive approaches. The environmental effects of Lyme disease depend, to a large extent, on the methods chosen to minimize human exposure to infected ticks. Conservation biologists can help design tick management programs that effectively lower the incidence of human Lyme disease while simultaneously minimizing negative effects on natural populations.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS1983

Human interactions with ground-water

Ground-Water could be considered as an immense reservoir, from which only a certain amount of water can be withdrawn without affecting the quantity and quality of water. This amount is determined by the characteristics of the environment in which ground-water occurs and by the interactions of ground-water with precipitation, surface water, and people. It should be recognized that quantity and quality of ground-water are intimately related and should be considered accordingly. Quantity refers to usable water and water is usable for any specific purpose only so long as its quality has not deteriorated beyond acceptable limits. Thus an overall quantitative and qualitative management of ground water is inevitable, and its should also involve the uses of ground-water reservoirs for purposes other than water supply. The main objective of ground-water management is to ensure that ground-water resources will be available in appropriate time and in appropriate quantity and quality to meet the most important demands of our society. Traditional, and obvious uses of ground-water are the extraction of water for water supplies (domestic, municipal, agricultural, and industrial) and the natural discharge feeding lakes and maintaining base flow of streams. Not so obvious are the uses of ground-water reservoirs, the very framework within which ground-water occurs and moves, and in which other fluids or materials can be stored. In the last two decades, ground-water reservoirs have been intensively considered for many other purposes than water supplies. Diversified and very often conflicting uses need to be evaluated and dealt with in the most efficient way in order to determine the importance of each possible use, and to assign priorities of these uses. With rising competition for the use of ground-water reservoirs, we will also need to increase the potential for effective planning of ground-water development and protection. Man's development and use of ground-water necessarily modifies the natural conditions and the total natural system must be successfully blended with the unnatural stresses placed upon it. This can be accomplished by introducing new methods (such as ground-water zoning) in and by developing alternative strategies for ground-water management and protection. ?? 1983 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

GeoJournal↗

USGS2005

Topographic, bioclimatic, and vegetation characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems in North America: Comparisons along continent-wide transects

Ecoregion classification systems are increasingly used for policy and management decisions, particularly among conservation and natural resource managers. A number of ecoregion classification systems are currently available, with each system defining ecoregions using different classification methods and different types of data. As a result, each classification system describes a unique set of ecoregions. To help potential users choose the most appropriate ecoregion system for their particular application, we used three latitudinal transects across North America to compare the boundaries and environmental characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems [Ku??chler, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and Bailey]. A variety of variables were used to evaluate the three systems, including woody plant species richness, normalized difference in vegetation index (NDVI), and bioclimatic variables (e.g., mean temperature of the coldest month) along each transect. Our results are dominated by geographic patterns in temperature, which are generally aligned north-south, and in moisture, which are generally aligned east-west. In the west, the dramatic changes in physiography, climate, and vegetation impose stronger controls on ecoregion boundaries than in the east. The Ku??chler system has the greatest number of ecoregions on all three transects, but does not necessarily have the highest degree of internal consistency within its ecoregions with regard to the bioclimatic and species richness data. In general, the WWF system appears to track climatic and floristic variables the best of the three systems, but not in all regions on all transects. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2012

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.

Landslides↗

USGS2012

Maximizing the utility of monitoring to the adaptive management of natural resources

Data collection is an important step in any investigation about the structure or processes related to a natural system. In a purely scientific investigation (experiments, quasi-experiments, observational studies), data collection is part of the scientific method, preceded by the identification of hypotheses and the design of any manipulations of the system to test those hypotheses. Data collection and the manipulations that precede it are ideally designed to maximize the information that is derived from the study. That is, such investigations should be designed for maximum power to evaluate the relative validity of the hypotheses posed. When data collection is intended to inform the management of ecological systems, we call it monitoring. Note that our definition of monitoring encompasses a broader range of data-collection efforts than some alternative definitions – e.g. Chapter 3. The purpose of monitoring as we use the term can vary, from surveillance or “thumb on the pulse” monitoring (see Nichols and Williams 2006), intended to detect changes in a system due to any non-specified source (e.g. the North American Breeding Bird Survey), to very specific and targeted monitoring of the results of specific management actions (e.g. banding and aerial survey efforts related to North American waterfowl harvest management). Although a role of surveillance monitoring is to detect unanticipated changes in a system, the same result is possible from a collection of targeted monitoring programs distributed across the same spatial range (Box 4.1). In the face of limited budgets and many specific management questions, tying monitoring as closely as possible to management needs is warranted (Nichols and Williams 2006). Adaptive resource management (ARM; Walters 1986, Williams 1997, Kendall 2001, Moore and Conroy 2006, McCarthy and Possingham 2007, Conroy et al. 2008a) provides a context and specific purpose for monitoring: to evaluate decisions with respect to achievement of specific management objectives; and to evaluate the relative validity of predictive system models. This latter purpose is analogous to the role of data collection within the scientific method, in a research context.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Use of a seismic air gun to reduce survival of nonnative lake trout embryos: A tool for conservation?

The detrimental impacts of nonnative lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in the western USA have prompted natural resource management agencies in several states to implement lake trout suppression programs. Currently, these programs rely on mechanical removal methods (i.e., gill nets, trap nets, and angling) to capture subadult and adult lake trout. We conducted a study to explore the potential for using high-intensity sound from a relatively small (655.5 cm 3 [40 in 3 ]) seismic air gun to reduce survival of lake trout embryos. Lake trout embryos at multiple stages of development were exposed to a single discharge of the seismic air gun at two depths (5 and 15 m) and at two distances from the air gun (0.1 and 2.7 m). Control groups for each developmental stage, distance, and depth were treated identically except that the air gun was not discharged. Mortality in lake trout embryos treated at 0.1 m from the air gun was 100% at 74 daily temperature units in degrees Celsius (TU°C) at both depths. Median mortality in lake trout embryos treated at 0.1 m from the air gun at 207 TU°C (93%) and 267 °C (78%) appeared to be higher than that of controls (49% and 48%, respectively) at 15-m depth. Among the four lake trout developmental stages, exposure to the air gun at 0.1 m resulted in acute mortality up to 60% greater than that of controls. Mortality at a distance of 2.7 m did not appear to differ from that of controls at any developmental stage or at either depth. Our results indicate that seismic air guns have potential as an alternative tool for controlling nonnative lake trout, but further investigation is warranted.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗