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1,662 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Overcoming the data limitations in landslide susceptibility modelling

Data-driven models widely used for assessing landslide susceptibility are severely limited by the landslide and environmental data needed to create them. They rely on inventories of past landslide locations, which are difficult to collect and often nonrepresentative. Furthermore, susceptibility maps are most needed in regions without the means to assemble an inventory. To overcome these challenges, we develop a method for assessing shallow landslide susceptibility based on a probabilistic morphometric analysis of the landscape’s topography, rather than the characteristics of landslides. The model assumes that hillslopes with higher relief and gradient compared to the surrounding landscape are more prone to landslides. We demonstrate the superior performance of this approach over contrasting data-driven models across the northwestern United States. As our morphometric model only requires elevation data, it overcomes the major limitations of data-driven models and facilitates the creation of effective susceptibility models in areas where it was previously unfeasible.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Asynchronous landslide seasonality across the United States

Mid-range landslide outlooks can facilitate weather-related landslide preparedness and disaster response planning, but seasonal landslide activity remains poorly quantified at continental scales. Leveraging >55,000 reported landslides from across the United States (U.S.), we used circular statistics to quantify landslide seasonality in 67 National Weather Service County Warning Areas (CWAs). We found regional differences in landslide season timing and duration, with transitions between domains variably corresponding to climate class or river basin. We assessed differences in seasonality by movement type for slides, flows, and falls, detecting apparent, but uncertain, differences between slide and fall seasonalities in 27 of 35 (77%) of CWAs with both types reported. In the Pacific Northwest, where long records exist, we found a credible shift toward a later mean landslide season in western Washington from 1990 to 2020, but no trend in western Oregon. Our results can provide emergency planners a resource to assess seasonal landslide probability nationwide.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at De Soto National Memorial, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Biscayne National Park, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Biscayne National Park, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Rupture process of the Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake ruptured a km long portion of the east-west trending Mendocino fault zone (MFZ). In order to clarify the rupture process, we assemble three-component seismograms from regional seismic stations, horizontal coseismic displacement vectors derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series, and a Sentinel-1 ascending interferogram. These data are interpreted with a model of slip distributed on two vertical fault planes representative of the eastern MFZ and spanning the ~70 km length of the aftershock zone. Assuming right-lateral strike slip, we find that the rupture initiates in the oceanic mantle at 20-30 km depth and proceeds unilaterally updip and toward the east. Early aftershocks locate adjacent to the peak slip areas, tracking the coseismic rupture propagation from oceanic mantle to shallower depth and implying a significant role of static stress transfer in driving aftershocks in an ocean plate environment.

California↗
USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at San Juan National Historic Site, Puerto Rico, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

San Juan National Historic Site↗
USGS2024

Evidence of nitrate attenuation in intertidal and subtidal groundwater in a subterranean estuary at a Cape Cod embayment, East Falmouth, Massachusetts, 2015–16

Nitrogen dynamics in intertidal and nearshore subtidal groundwater (subterranean estuary) adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula, Falmouth, Massachusetts, were investigated during 2015–16 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The peninsula is a densely populated residential area with septic systems and cesspools that are substantial sources of nitrogen to groundwater. The study area is in the Eel River, an estuarine saltwater embayment connected to the ocean adjacent to the western shore of the peninsula, that was the subject of an earlier study by Colman and others (2018, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185095 ) on nitrogen transport and transformations in groundwater between onshore and offshore locations. The previous study documented the distribution of nitrate concentrations and nitrate attenuation reactions in fresh groundwater beneath the peninsula and the estuary. The current study extended those observations with more detailed sampling and analysis of shallow groundwater from wells near discharge sites beneath the estuary. The current field investigation included sampling of existing wells and installation and sampling of clusters of wells and temporary sampling points in the subterranean estuary, including (1) shallow transects 0.3 to 1.2 meters (m) deep extending from 1 to 13.5 m offshore and (2) deeper wells (from 1.83 to 4.88 m deep) extending from 4.3 to 14.3 m offshore. Measurements of hydraulic-head gradients 2–5 m below the sediment/water interface in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal zones indicated that groundwater flow generally was upwards (towards the estuary) under all tide conditions in October 2016. The magnitude of the gradient was greatest during low tide conditions, indicating that groundwater discharge likely decreased during high tides. Measurements of specific conductance in shallow groundwater in the subterranean estuary in three transects perpendicular to shore were consistent with the existence of saltwater flow cells (infiltration of overlying saline water, mixing with fresh groundwater, and discharge to the overlying saline water) in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal regions. The size of these flow cells was variable in space and time and dependent on the elevation of the tide (spring or neap). At this location in the Eel River subterranean estuary, and offshore to at least 13.5 m, offshore flow of fresh groundwater apparently prevented a deeper saltwater wedge from discharging to the surface. Nitrate concentrations in shallow groundwater (30 to 122 centimeters [cm] depth) were variable in space and time, ranging from not detectable to 600 micromoles per liter (μmol/L) (8.4 milligrams per liter as N), and were highest in June 2016 at depths from 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 4 to 9 m offshore. Nitrate generally was not detectable in saline shallow groundwater at 30-cm depth or at any depth from 30 to 122 cm from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were suboxic (less than 16 μmol/L) in 60 percent of the sampled subterranean groundwater beneath the intertidal and subtidal zones. In the remaining sites, the range of dissolved oxygen concentrations was from 18 to 272 μmol/L and the median concentration was 43 μmol/L. Evidence for microbial nitrate reduction (denitrification and possibly anammox) was provided by the distribution of the reaction product nitrogen gas (excess N 2 , or N 2MIC ), as determined from analysis of the dissolved nitrogen gas and argon gas (Ar) concentrations in groundwater samples. Excess nitrogen gas provided evidence for nitrate reduction in shallow groundwater below the subtidal and, to a lesser extent, intertidal zones adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula. These zones, where evidence for nitrate reduction was detected, were in fresh and brackish groundwater near subtidal or intertidal saltwater cells where discharging fresh groundwater mixed with infiltrating saline water. Infiltrating seawater may have supplied organic carbon, one of several potential electron donors that are required for denitrification. Other potential electron donors, such as organic carbon, iron, manganese, hydrogen, methane, ammonium, elemental sulfur, or sulfide phases, may have been supplied by the estuarine sediments. Drainage from surface runoff near the shore also may have supplied organic carbon to fresh groundwater near the intertidal saltwater cell. The highest amounts of nitrate converted to excess nitrogen gas were estimated to be in the range of 230 to 430 μmol/L in nearly fresh groundwater near the subtidal saltwater cell at depths of 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Evidence of denitrification within 10 m of the shore was sparse (generally limited to less than 50 μmol/L of N 2 -N) despite the presence of high nitrate concentrations. The spatial distribution of estimated nitrate reduction in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal fresh and brackish groundwater may be related to local variability in the distribution of reactive electron donors in those zones. Variations in the amount of nitrate reduction to nitrogen gas were not clearly related to potential aqueous electron donors such as dissolved organic carbon, nor to potential reaction products such as alkalinity, but may have been controlled by combinations of aqueous and solid-phase reactants. The distribution of relatively shallow fresh groundwater containing nitrate could indicate potential nitrate discharge areas in the lower intertidal zone and uncertain locations farther offshore; however, the data did not extend all the way to the sediment/water interface or to the offshore freshwater limit. This study confirmed substantial loss of nitrate from some of the fresh and brackish groundwater in shallow subestuarine sediments prior to discharge but did not quantify how much nitrate eventually discharged to the estuary.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2025

Estimated hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal distribution of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals for aquifers of the Virginia Coastal Plain

Water use from private-domestic wells accounts for nearly 40 percent of total groundwater withdrawals in the Virginia Coastal Plain Physiographic Province (henceforth called the Virginia Coastal Plain). However, because self-supplied domestic water use generally falls below the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) reporting and management threshold of 300,000 gallons per month, quantifying these withdrawals is challenging. This report builds upon the foundation of previous U.S. Geological Survey investigations by providing revised techniques to improve estimates of the aquifer source, spatial distribution, and monthly magnitude of these groundwater withdrawals. The aquifer sources of private-domestic wells in the Virginia Coastal Plain were estimated by cross-referencing 8,264 well records from the VDEQ and the Virginia Department of Health to a digital model of the Virginia Coastal Plain hydrogeologic framework. This analysis highlights the regional importance of the Yorktown-Eastover, Potomac, and surficial aquifers. Collectively, these three aquifers account for 80 percent of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals. The population using self-supplied domestic water was estimated using census blocks, well-use ratios, building footprints, and land-use and land-cover data to produce a high-resolution, disaggregated, raster-based dataset. This approach improves upon previous models at the census-block or road-network scale by reducing the low-density spread of the self-supplied domestic population across undeveloped areas and concentrating the population and its corresponding water use in the areas where it is most likely to occur. Results show that an estimated 475,332 people comprise the 2020 self-supplied domestic population of the Virginia Coastal Plain, an increase of 5.7 percent since 2010, and the greatest concentrations of self-supplied domestic population surround large cities. Estimates could be further refined with the addition of current and complete spatial data on public water-system service areas. The quantity of water used by the self-supplied domestic population was estimated by modifying published state per-capita water-use coefficients with the corresponding monthly variability assessed from Virginia Coastal Plain public water-system withdrawal data. This analysis estimates an average increase of 12 percent from June through August and an average decrease of 8 percent from December through March from the baseline annual average of 80 gallons per day per capita, which generally matches similar studies in the eastern United States. The application of these revised methodologies for the estimation of private-domestic wells and the self-supplied domestic population improves understanding of domestic groundwater use in the Virginia Coastal Plain across hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal scales. These revisions help better inform water-resource managers and decision makers and support higher resolution groundwater modeling. Furthermore, these methods are transferrable to other areas where self-supplied domestic water withdrawals are important to the overall water budget.

Virginia↗
USGS2024

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a Natural Resources Preservation Program-funded project during 2021–23, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the National Park Service, estimated the probability of inundation at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida, and several other parks under various sea-level rise scenarios and contemporary high tide flooding thresholds. The maps produced for this effort can be used to assess potential habitat change and explore how infrastructure and cultural resources within the park may be exposed to future flooding-related hazards.

Florida↗
USGS2025

A northeast-dipping zone of low frequency earthquakes at the southern edge of Cascadia subduction

Tectonic tremor monitoring occasionally detects events in an anomalous zone in southern Cascadia, 50–100 km west of the main tremor band, near the expected southern edge of the subducting Gorda slab at the Mendocino triple junction. To investigate the geometry and temporal behavior of this tremor, we examine its constituent low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) by developing 27 stacked LFE waveform templates that we use to detect events from 2018 to 2024. We then relocate LFE sources together with regional seismicity. We find that LFE hypocenters form a northeast-dipping alignment at 22–29 km depth, extending eastward from a zone of micro-earthquakes, ∼15 km south of the southern edge of Gorda slab seismicity. These LFE families exhibit small bursts of activity every few days. Considering the strong world-wide association of tremor and LFEs with high slip-rate, plate-bounding faults, we hypothesize these LFEs may demark the southern edge of Cascadia subduction.

California↗
USGS2025

Landslide-channel feedbacks amplify channel widening during floods

Channel widening is a major hazard during floods, particularly in confined mountainous catchments. However, channel widening during floods is not well understood and not always explained by hydraulic variables alone. Floods in mountainous regions often coincide with landslides triggered by heavy rainfall, yet landslide-channel interactions during a flood event are not well known or documented. Here we demonstrate with an example from the Great Colorado Flood in 2013, a 1000 year precipitation event, how landslide-channel feedbacks can substantially amplify channel widening and flood risk. We use a combination of DEM differencing, field analysis, and multiphase flow modeling to document landslide-channel interaction during the flood event in which sediment delivered by landslides temporarily dammed the channel before failing and generating substantial channel widening. We propose that such landslide-flood interactions will become increasingly important to account for in flood hazard assessment as flooding and landsliding both increase with extreme rainfall under climate change.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Extreme plate boundary localization promotes shallow earthquake slip at the Japan Trench

The 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku-oki earthquake is exceptional among great earthquakes for having peak slip of ~50-70 m on the shallowest portion of the plate boundary megathrust. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 405 drilled multiple holes through the megathrust in the large slip region and at a Pacific Plate input site. The megathrust preferentially develops at the top or base of the pelagic clay in the input section where pronounced contrasts in physical properties are present. This results in a narrow, weak fault located at a major mechanical contact between frontal prism mud and subducted clay. Localization imposed by the input section enhances the tendency for shallow seismic slip, showing the Japan Trench may be more susceptible to ruptures with large shallow slip than margins without weak clays.

Japan Trench↗
USGS2026

The saline groundwater legacy of a large buried coastal paleo-estuary

Elevated groundwater salinity in coastal regions threatens the beneficial use of fresh groundwater. Coastal groundwater management typically focuses on preventing intrusion from modern sources of seawater; however, past geological processes can also leave a legacy of saline groundwater now hidden in the subsurface. Here, multiple extensive airborne electromagnetic surveys provide detailed evidence of residual salinity from a paleo-estuary filling a late Pleistocene incised valley impacting more than 10,000 km 2 that is now hidden beneath coastal Louisiana’s deltaic plain. Our results show that the three-dimensional pattern of saline groundwater beneath Louisiana mimics that of near-surface aquifers surrounding the modern Delaware Bay estuary, fingerprinting the signature of the past drowning of a large, incised valley of the Mississippi River following post-glacial sea-level rise. These findings demonstrate a new framework for understanding legacy sources of saltwater critical for managing stressed water resources along global coastlines.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

Seamless Geologic Map Database for the Intermountain West, United States: A foundational dataset for mineral systems analysis

The Intermountain West has a complex geologic history, resulting in the formation of a diverse array of mineral deposits. Effective mineral exploration requires understanding the spatial and temporal relationships among geologic processes and events, a key focus of the mineral systems approach to exploration. This paper presents the Intermountain West Seamless Geologic Map Database, a unified dataset designed to support mineral exploration. Integrating geologic provinces, structural settings, and hydrothermal alteration, the database leverages the Seamless Integrated Geologic Mapping (SIGMa) extension to the USGS Geologic Map Schema (GeMS) to standardize geologic data from varied sources. SIGMa's hierarchical stratigraphic organization and feature-level metadata enhance data interoperability and reusability, enabling seamless query, analysis, and visualization of lithology, structural features, mineral deposits, geochronology, hydrothermal alteration. volcanic activity, and By providing a regionally consistent and dynamically evolving geologic map, this database provides a foundational framework for mineral exploration and geologic research. It also allows for an efficient workflow that expedites the publication of integrated geologic map databases.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Evaluation of an open earthquake early warning system in Mexico, and laboratory tests of their sensors

Microelectromechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers are useful for seismological and engineering applications because of their ability to record unsaturated large seismic signals. Recent advances in MEMS technologies enable the design of instruments with improved capabilities that also allow the recording of small signals. As a result, MEMS can be useful across a broad dynamic range and for both major earthquakes and smaller magnitude events. Here, we analyze the performance of a MEMS‐based accelerometer with the capability of real‐time data transmission. We discuss the self‐noise level, dynamic range, and sensitivity, along with the timing precision and data transmission latency, and compare these parameters to other MEMS‐based instruments. We also summarize observations from a regional network deployed in southern Mexico over a period of 3+ yr for the purpose of earthquake early warning. In addition to the sensor evaluation, we present a large, openly available data set of strong motion data from the Mexican network that comprises continuous ground‐motion records from 24 accelerometers in the period between 2017 and 2022.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2024

Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.

Earthquake Spectra↗