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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

Assessing simulated ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park, USA

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur.

Montana↗

Conflict minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo—Tin processing plants, a critical part of the tin supply chain

Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzes mineral and metal supply chains to identify and describe major components of material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. Supply chain analyses may be used (1) to identify risks to the United States associated with the supply of critical and strategic minerals and metals and (2) to provide greater supply chain transparency so that policymakers have the fact-based information needed to formulate public policy. This fact sheet focuses on the post-mining/pre-consumer-product part of the tin supply chain. The USGS National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) has been asked by governmental and non-governmental organizations to provide information about tantalum, tin, tungsten, and gold (collectively known as “3TG minerals”) processing facilities worldwide in response to U.S. legislation aimed at identifying and removing the supply chain links between the trade in these minerals and civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and adjacent countries. Post-beneficiation processing plants (generally called smelters and refineries) for 3TG mineral ores and concentrates were identified by company and industry association representatives as being a link in the 3TG mineral supply chain through which these minerals can be traced to their source of origin (mine). The determination of the source of origin is critical to the development of a complete and transparent conflict-free mineral supply chain. Tungsten processing plants were the subject of the first fact sheet in this series published by the USGS NMIC in August 2014. Background information about historical conditions and multinational stakeholders’ voluntary due diligence guidance for minerals from conflict-affected and high-risk areas was presented in the tungsten fact sheet. Tantalum processing plants were the subject of the second fact sheet in this series published by the USGS NMIC in December 2014. This fact sheet, the third in the series about 3TG minerals, focuses on the tin supply chain by listing selected processors that produced tin materials commercially worldwide during 2013–14. It does not provide any information regarding the sources of the material processed in these facilities.

Fact Sheet↗

National Geospatial Program

The National Geospatial Program (NGP; http://www.usgs.gov/ngpo/ ) satisfies the needs of customers by providing geospatial products and services that customers incorporate into their decisionmaking and operational activities. These products and services provide geospatial data that are organized and maintained in cost-effective ways and developed by working with partners and organizations whose activities align with those of the program. To accomplish its mission, the NGP— organizes, maintains, publishes, and disseminates the geospatial baseline of the Nation's topography, natural landscape, and manmade environment through The National Map fosters a general understanding of broad geographic patterns, trends, and conditions through The National Atlas of the United States of America increases the efficiency of the Nation's geospatial community by improving communications about geospatial data, products, services, projects, needs, standards, and best practices. The NGP comprises seven major components (described below), that are managed as a unified set. For example, The National Map establishes data standards and identifies geographic areas where specific types of geospatial data need to be incorporated into The National Map . Partnership Network Liaisons work with Federal, State, local, and tribal partners to help acquire the data. Geospatial technical operations ensure the quality control, integration, and availability to the public of the data acquired. The Emergency Operations Office provides the requirements to The National Map and, during emergencies and natural disasters, provides rapid dissemination of information and data targeted to the needs of emergency responders. The National Atlas uses data from The National Map and other sources to make small-scale maps and multimedia articles about the maps.

Fact Sheet↗

Reconnaissance study of sediment transport by selected streams in the Yakima Indian Reservation, Washington, 1974 water year

This was a reconnaissance study for information on suspended-sediment concentrations and basin yields at 21 sites on selected streams in the Yakima Indian Reservation in Washington, and two sites on nearby streams. Suspended-sediment yields were generally low relative to those indicated by data for other streams on southeastern Washington, the southern Cascade Range, and the upper Columbia River basin. The highest long-term sediment yield on the reservation probably is from the Big Muddy Creek basin; the estimated annual yield is about 150 tons per square mile. The suspended sediment transported by this stream is largely from glacial outwash from Mount Adams. Other yields in the basin were estimated to be from 10 to 50 tons per square mile. Mass wasting is considered the principal cause of sediment transport in the streams studied. Some evidence of accelerated sediment production due to road construction was found along Surveyor Creek. During the flood of January 1974, which has a calculated recurrence interval of more than 100 years, the maximum observed suspended-sediment concentration was 7,830 milligrams per litre, in the North Fork Simcoe Creek. During that flood, an estimated 70,000 tons of sediment was transported from the upper Toppenish Creek basin; this was nearly 600 tons per square mile. However, the long-term average annual yield was estimated to be only about 30 tons per square mile.

Open-File Report↗

World distribution of uranium deposits

Deposit data derived from IAEA UDEPO (http://infcis.iaea.org/UDEPO/About.cshtml) database with assistance from P. Bruneton (France) and M. Mihalasky (U.S.A.). The map is an updated companion to "World Distribution of Uranium Deposits (UDEPO) with Uranium Deposit Classification, IAEA Tech-Doc-1629". Geology was derived from L.B. Chorlton, Generalized Geology of the World, Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 5529 , 2007. Map production by M.C. Fairclough (IAEA), J.A. Irvine (Austrailia), L.F. Katona (Australia) and W.L. Slimmon (Canada). World Distribution of Uranium Deposits, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria. Cartographic Assistance was supplied by the Geological Survey of South Australia, the Saskatchewan Geological Survey and United States Geological Survey to the IAEA. Coastlines, drainage, and country boundaries were obtained from ArcMap, 1:25 000 000 scale, and are copyrighted data containing the intellectual property of Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgment by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. Any revisions or additional geological information known to the user would be welcomed by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Geological Survey of Canada.

Report↗

Mercury concentrations in Seaside Sparrows and Marsh Rice Rats differ across the Mississippi River Estuary

Mercury (Hg) concentrations and their associated toxicological effects in terrestrial ecosystems of the Gulf of Mexico are largely unknown. Compounding this uncertainty, a large input of organic matter from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill may have altered Hg cycling and bioaccumulation dynamics. To test this idea, we quantified blood concentrations of total mercury (THg) in Seaside Sparrows ( Ammospiza maritima ) and Marsh Rice Rats ( Oryzomys palustris ) in marshes west and east of the Mississippi River in 2015 and 2016. We also tested for a difference in THg concentrations between oiled and non-oiled sites. To address the potential confounding effect of diet variation on Hg transfer, we used stable nitrogen (δ 15 N) and carbon (δ 13 C) isotope values as proxies of trophic position and the source of primary production, respectively. Our results revealed that five to six years after the spill, THg concentrations were not higher in sites oiled by the spill compared to non-oiled sites. In both species, THg was higher at sites east of the Mississippi River compared to control and oiled sites, located west. In Seaside Sparrows but not in Marsh Rice Rats, THg increased with δ 15 N values, suggesting Hg trophic biomagnification. Overall, even in sites with the most elevated THg, concentrations were generally low. In Seaside Sparrows, THg concentrations were also lower than previously reported in this and other closely related passerines, with only 7% of tested birds exceeding the lowest observed effect concentration associated with toxic effects across bird species (0.2 µg/g ww ) . The factors associated with geographic heterogeneity in Hg exposure remain uncertain. Clarification could inform risk assessment and future restoration and management actions in a region facing vast anthropogenic changes.

Ecotoxicology↗

Geology and Nonfuel Mineral Deposits of Africa and the Middle East

A nation's endowment of nonfuel mineral resources, relative to the world's endowment, is a fundamental consideration in decisions related to a nation's economic and environmental well being and security. Knowledge of the worldwide abundance, distribution, and general geologic setting of mineral commodities provides a framework within which a nation can make decisions about economic development of its own resources, and the economic and environmental consequences of those decisions, in a global perspective. The information in this report is part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) endeavor to evaluate the global endowment of both identified and undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources. The results will delineate areas of the world that are geologically permissive for the occurrence of undiscovered selected nonfuel mineral resources together with estimates of the quantity and quality of the resources. The results will be published as a series of regional reports; this one provides basic data on the identified resources and geologic setting, together with a brief appraisal of the potential for undiscovered mineral resources in Africa and the Middle East. Additional information, such as production statistics, economic factors that affect the mineral industries of the region, and historical information, is available in U.S. Geological Survey publications such as the Minerals Yearbook and the annual Mineral Commodity Summaries (available at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals).

Open-File Report↗

Occurrence of selected radionuclides in ground water used for drinking water in the United States: A reconnaissance survey, 1998

T he U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the American Water Works Association, and the American Water Works Service Company, completed a targeted national reconnaissance survey of selected radionuclides in public ground-water supplies. Radionuclides analyzed included radium-224 (Ra-224), radium-226 (Ra-226), radium-228 (Ra-228), polonium-210 (Po-210) and lead-210 (Pb-210). This U.S. Geological Survey reconnaissance survey focused intentionally on areas with known or suspected elevated concentrations of radium in ground water to determine if Ra-224 was also present in the areas where other isotopes of radium had previously been detected and to determine the co-occurrence characteristics of the three radium isotopes (Ra-224, Ra-226, and Ra-228) in those areas. Ninety-nine raw-water samples (before water treatment) were collected once over a 6-month period in 1998 and 1999 from wells (94 of which are used for public drinking water) in 27 States and 8 physiographic provinces. Twenty-one of the 99 samples exceeded the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water maximum contaminant level of 5 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) for combined radium (Ra-226 + Ra-228). Concentrations of Ra-224 were reported to exceed 1 pCi/L in 30 percent of the samples collected, with a maximum concentration of 73.6 pCi/L measured in water from a nontransient, noncommunity, public-supply well in Maryland. Radium-224 concentrations generally were higher than those of the other isotopes of radium. About 5 percent of the samples contained concentrations of Ra-224 greater than 10 pCi/L, whereas only 2 percent exceeded 10 pCi/L for either Ra-226 or Ra-228. Concentrations of Ra-226 greater than 1 pCi/L were reported in 33 percent of the samples, with a maximum concentration of 16.9 pCi/L measured in water from a public-supply well in Iowa. Concentrations of Ra-228 greater than 1 pCi/L were reported in 22 samples, with a maximum concentration of 72.3 pCi/L measured in water from a non-transient, noncommunity, public-supply well in Maryland. Radium-224, which is a decay product of Ra-228 in the Th-232 decay series, was significantly correlated with Ra-228 (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient “r” equals 0.82) and to a lesser degree with Ra-226 (r equals 0.69), which is an isotope in the U-238 decay series. The rank correlation coefficient between Ra-226 and Ra-228 was 0.63. The high correlation between Ra-224 and Ra-228 concentrations and the corresponding isotopic ratios of the two (about 1:1 in 90 percent of the samples) indicates that the two radionuclides occur in approximately equal concentrations in most ground water sampled. Thus, Ra-228 can be considered as a reasonable proxy indicator for the occurrence of Ra-224 in ground water. The maximum concentration of Po-210 was 4.85 pCi/L and exceeded 1 pCi/L in only two samples. The maximum concentration of Pb-210 was 4.14 pCi/L, and about 10 percent of the samples exceeded 1 pCi/L. Areas with known, or suspected, elevated concentrations of polonium and lead were not targeted in this survey. Three major implications are drawn for future radionuclide monitoring on the basis of this information: (1) grossalpha particle analyses of ground water should be done within about 48–72 hours after collection to determine the presence of the short-lived, alpha-particle emitting isotopes, such as Ra-224, which was detected in elevated concentrations in many of the samples collected for this survey; (2) the isotope ratios of Ra-224 to Ra-228 in ground water are variable on a national scale, but the two radioisotopes generally occur in ratios near 1:1, therefore, the more commonly measured Ra-228 can be used as an indicator of Ra-224 occurrence for some general purposes other than compliance; and (3) the isotopic ratios of Ra-226 to Ra-228 were less than 3:2 in many samples. These ratios corroborate results of previous studies that have shown the presence of Ra-228 (a beta-particle emitter) can cause a flaw in conventional radium compliance monitoring when the gross-alpha particle screen indicates no need for further analysis (the gross alpha particle activity is less than 5 pCi/L) even though the ratio of Ra-226 to Ra-228 is less than 3:2.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Comparison of drilling reports and detailed geophysical analysis of ground-water production in bedrock wells

The most extensive data base for fractured bedrock aquifers consists of drilling reports maintained by various state agencies. We investigated the accuracy and reliability of such reports by comparing a representative set of reports for nine wells drilled by conventional air percussion methods in granite with a suite of geophysical logs for the same wells designed to identify the depths of fractures intersecting the well bore which may have produced water during aquifer tests. Production estimates reported by the driller ranged from less than 1 to almost 10 gallons per minute. The moderate drawdowns maintained during subsequent production tests were associated with approximately the same flows as those measured when boreholes were dewatered during air percussion drilling. We believe the estimates of production during drilling and drawdown tests were similar because partial fracture zone dewatering during drilling prevented larger inflows otherwise expected from the steeper drawdowns during drilling. The fractures and fracture zones indicated on the drilling report and the amounts of water produced by these fractures during drilling generally agree with those identified from the geophysical log analysis. Most water production occurred from two fractured and weathered zones which are separated by an interval of unweathered granite. The fractures identified in the drilling reports show various depth discrepancies in comparison to the geophysical logs, which are subject to much better depth control. However, the depths of the fractures associated with water production on the drilling report are comparable to the depths of the fractures shown to be the source of water inflow in the geophysical log analysis. Other differences in the relative contribution of flow from fracture zones may by attributed to the differences between the hydraulic conditions during drilling, which represent large, prolonged drawdowns, and pumping tests, which consisted of smaller drawdowns maintained over shorter periods. We conclude that drilling reports filed by experienced well drillers contain useful information about the depth, thickness, degree of weathering, and production capacity of fracture zones supplying typical domestic water wells. The accuracy of this information could be improved if relatively simple and inexpensive geophysical well logs such as gamma, caliper, and normal resistivity logs were routinely run in conjunction with bedrock drilling projects.

Groundwater↗

Development and application of a screening model for simulating regional ground-water flow in the St. Croix River basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin

A series of databases and an accompanying screening model were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, to better understand the regional ground-water-flow system and its relation to stream drainage in the St. Croix River Basin. The St. Croix River and its tributaries drain about 8,000 square miles in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. The databases contain information for the entire St. Croix River Basin pertaining to well logs, lithology, thickness of lithologic groups, ground-water levels, streamflow, and well pumpage. Maps and generalized cross sections created from the compiled data show the lithologic groups, extending from the water table to the crystalline bedrock, through which ground water flows. These lithologic groups are: fine-grained unconsolidated deposits; coarse-grained unconsolidated deposits; sandstone bedrock; carbonate bedrock; and other bedrock lithologies including shale, siltstone, conglomerate, and igneous intrusions. The steady-state screening model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with transmissivity zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups, and with recharge zones that correspond to general areas of high or low evapotranspiration. The model includes representation of second- and higher-order streams and municipal and other high-capacity production wells. The analytic-element model code GFLOW was used to simulate the regional ground-water flow, the water-table surface across the St. Croix River Basin, and base-flow contributions from ground water to streams. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the stream network to the St. Croix River. The parameter-estimation inverse model UCODE was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match over 5,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 22 streamflow-gaging stations. Results from the calibrated screening model show ground-water contributing areas for selected stream reaches within the basin. The delineation of these areas is useful to water-resource managers concerned with protection of fisheries and other resources. The model results also identify the areas of the basin where ground-water travel time from the water table to streams and wells is relatively short (less than 50 years). Ninety percent of the simulated ground-water pathlines require travel times between 3 and 260 years. The median pathline distance traversed and the median pathline velocity were 1.7 mi and 177 ft/y, respectively. It is important to recognize the limitations of this screening model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale (hundreds to thousands of feet) flow systems associated with minor water bodies are neglected, and as a result, the model is not useful for simulating typical site-specific problems. Despite its limitations, the model serves as a framework for understanding the regional pattern of ground-water flow and as a starting point for a generation of more targeted and detailed ground-water models that would be needed to address emerging water-supply and water-quality concerns in the St. Croix River Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

Alaska↗

Quantifying regional ecological dynamics using agency monitoring data, ecological site descriptions, and ecological site groups

Information about what ecological conditions are likely, causes or drivers of degradation, and potential management actions to restore degraded lands may support land conservation and restoration decisions. State-and-transition models (STMs) describe persistent plant and ecological conditions that are possible (the “state”) within a given abiotic setting and drivers or actions that can cause shifts between states (the “transitions”). These primarily conceptual models are widely used to inform resource and conservation decisions. Data-driven STMs have been developed for some lands, but not at regional or national scales. Here, we demonstrate a new repeatable workflow for developing data-driven STMs in the United States (US). The approach leverages predictive maps of Ecological Site Groups (ESGs), extensive field-based Federal monitoring databases, information from Ecological Site Description (ESD) STMs, soil erosion models, remotely sensed productivity, and other available spatial information (fire, land protection, and drought) to provide context and descriptions of the data-driven states, including likely drivers of transitions. Results of this workflow applied to one dryland ESG in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the southwestern US suggest that an Invaded state (16% of 1352 plots) and some occurrences of a Grassland state (30% of plots) are in a degraded or at-risk condition with reduced ecosystem services. The most common drivers of state transitions in the associated ESDs ( n = 26) are related to livestock grazing and fire. The Invaded state in the ESG has evidence of degraded habitat quality and accelerated run-off while the Grassland state occurrences show reduced richness, productivity, and elevated erosion risk by wind. Areas subject to wildfire and with lower protection status had greater probability of Invaded state occurrence, generally supporting drivers in ESDs. The workflow presented here can serve as a template for describing ecological dynamics at regional scales, and support prioritization of land for conservation and climate adaptation activities.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗

Cyanide speciation at four gold leach operations undergoing remediation

Analyses have been made of 81 effluents from four gold leach operations in various stages of remediation to identify the most-persistent cyanide species. Total cyanide and weak acid-dissociable (WAD) cyanide were measured using improved methods, and metals known to form stable cyanocomplexes were also measured. Typically, total cyanide greatly exceeded WAD indicating that cyanide was predominantly in strong cyanometallic complexes. Iron was generally too low to accommodate the strongly complexed cyanide as Fe(CN) 6 3- or Fe(CN) 6 4- , but cobalt was abundant enough to implicate Co(CN) 6 3- or its dissociation products (Co(CN) 6-x (H 2 O) x (3-x)- ). Supporting evidence for cobalt-cyanide complexation was found in tight correlations between cobalt and cyanide in some sample suites. Also, abundant free cyanide was produced upon UV illumination. Iron and cobalt cyanocomplexes both photodissociate; however, the iron concentration was insufficient to have carried the liberated cyanide, while the cobalt concentration was sufficient. Cobalt cyanocomplexes have not previously been recognized in cyanidation wastes. Their identification at four separate operations, which had treated ores that were not especially rich in cobalt, suggests that cobalt complexation may be a common source of cyanide persistence. There is a need for more information on the importance and behavior of cobalt cyanocomplexes in ore-processing wastes at gold mines.

California;Nevada;New Mexico↗

Hydrogeology of unconsolidated deposits in Chenango County, New York

Chenango County uses ground water from unconsolidated valley-fill aquifers and from bedrock in the uplands for public water supply. Water-resources managers and planners need information on the location, thickness, and potential well yield of unconsolidated deposits throughout the county to formulate plans to protect and manage the ground-water resources. Data from 519 well sites were obtained from well drillers and several State agencies in 1989 and 1990 and combined with data from previous studies to compile a well-inventory table and maps depicting well locations, thickness of unconsolidated deposits, and potential well yields from valley-fill aquifers. Thickness of unconsolidated deposits on hilltops and in areas of steep terrain is generally less than 5 ft (feet); on north-facing hillsides it is generally less than 50 ft, whereas on south-facing hillsides and kame terraces, it typically ranges from 50 to 100 ft. Thickness of unconsolidated deposits in major stream valleys generally exceeds 100 ft and exceeds 200 ft locally. The most productive aquifers consist of coarse valley-fill sand and gravel deposits. Wells completed in aquifers that occupy minor stream valleys, such as the Genegantslet creek Valley,generally yield less than 100 gal/min (gallons per minute). Potential well yields from deposits in major stream valleys, such as the Chenango River Valley, range from 100 to 3,500 gal/min. In areas where the saturated thickness exceeds 40 ft and the drainage basin exceeds 200 square miles, the potential yield of some wells can exceed 3,500 gal/min.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2019 progress summary

This report describes an Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program designed to maintain the Svalbard population of Pink-footed Geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their target level (60,000) by providing sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides recent monitoring and assessment results and their implications for the 2019 hunting season. In this report we provide results for both the set of nine discrete population models used since 2013 and for a recently developed Integrated Population Model (IPM). Updating model weights (set of nine models) and model parameters (IPM) use the most recent monitoring information available (i.e. through spring 2019). We also compare optimal harvest strategies based on the two modeling approaches. Of growing concern, however, has been the observation that the predictive ability of the original population models has declined over time. Going forward, we suggest that use of the IPM is a superior modeling approach for setting hunting seasons for Pink-footed Geese. Population sizes in May as estimated by the IPM are in general agreement with counts and capture-markrecapture estimates but are more precise. Estimates of survival from natural causes were relatively constant over time with a mean of 0.93 and estimates of adult kill rate ranged from 0.04 to 0.13. Estimates of countryspecific kill rates suggest that most of the overall increase in kill rate in recent years is attributed to increasing harvest pressure in Denmark. With respect to productivity, the IPM produced estimates of preseason age ratio that were variable over time, but on average suggested that young constituted about 18% of the population just prior to the hunting season. Estimates of the preseason age ratio correlated well with the number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard. Our results suggest that population size has stabilized because of declining survival rates that have accompanied an increase in kill rates. Adoption of the IPM this year would result in a harvest quota for the 2019 hunting season of 22,000, based on a May population estimate of 76,500 (95% CI: 66,800 – 86,600) and 8 days above freezing in Svalbard. Using the agreed upon allocation of the total allowable harvest, the quotas are 6,600 for Norway and 15,400 for Denmark. Assuming the total quota is met, the IPM predicts a population size in May 2020 of 64,900 (95% CI: 50,300 – 83,700). We note that the updated set of original models used since 2013 suggests an allowable harvest of 40,000 in 2019 based on a November 2018 count of 91,900 geese (comprised of 12,900 young and 79,000 adults). We are skeptical of this large quota, however. Using all available demographic data suggests that the November 2018 population size was lower than that indicated by the count and that the winter population experienced more natural mortality than expected. These insights demonstrate the inherent risk of basing a harvest quota on a single population count, irrespective of other demographic data.

Report↗

Evaluation of Methods for Delineating Zones of Transport for Production Wells in Karst and Fractured-Rock Aquifers of Minnesota

Assessment of groundwater-flow conditions in the vicinity of production wells in karst and fractured-rock settings commonly is difficult due in part to the lack of detailed hydrogeologic information and the resources needed to collect it. To address this concern and to better understand the hydrogeology and aquifer properties of karst and fractured-rock aquifers in Minnesota, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Health, conducted a study to evaluate methods for delineating zones of transport for 24 production wells in karst and fractured-rock aquifers in Minnesota. Two empirical methods for delineating zones of transport around wells were applied to the 24 production wells that extract groundwater from karst and fractured-rock aquifers in nine Minnesota communities. These methods were the truncated-parabola and modified-ellipse methods, and both methods assume porous-media flow conditions. The 24 wells extracted water from a karst aquifer (Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer), porous aquifers interspersed with solution-enhanced fractures (Jordan and Hinckley aquifers), or fractured-bedrock aquifers (Biwabik Iron-Formation and Sioux Quartzite aquifers). Zones of transport delineated using these two empirical methods were compared with zones of transport previously delineated by Minnesota Department of Health hydrologists for the wells using the calculated-fixed-radius method and groundwater-flow models. Large differences were seen in the size and shapes of most zones of transport delineated using the truncated-parabola and modified-ellipse methods compared with the zones of transport delineated by the Minnesota Department of Health. In general, the zones of transport delineated using the truncated-parabola and modified-ellipse methods were smaller in area than those delineated by the Minnesota Department of Health and included only small parts of the Minnesota Department of Health zones of transport. About two-thirds(67 percent) of the individual or composite truncated parabolas and modified ellipses covered less than 50 percent of the area included in zones of transport delineated by the Minnesota Department of Health. The shapes of some of the truncated parabola and modified ellipses did not closely match the zones of transport delineated by the Minnesota Department of Health using the calculated-fixed-radius method and groundwater-flow models. Differences between the zones of transport delineated by the truncated-parabola and modified-ellipse methods and those delineated by the Minnesota Department of Health can be explained by variations inherent to the methods and by the amount of complexity taken into account by different groundwater-flow models. Additional field hydrogeologic studies would be needed at specific sites to support the use of these zone-of-transport delineation methods. Application of the truncated-parabola and modified-ellipse methods to sites for which existing hydrogeologic information is limited can produce questionable results in karst and fractured-rock settings, particularly in areas where many high-capacity wells or active mining operations are nearby.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Detection rates of the MODIS active fire product in the United States

MODIS active fire data offer new information about global fire patterns. However, uncertainties in detection rates can render satellite-derived fire statistics difficult to interpret. We evaluated the MODIS 1??km daily active fire product to quantify detection rates for both Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors, examined how cloud cover and fire size affected detection rates, and estimated how detection rates varied across the United States. MODIS active fire detections were compared to 361 reference fires (??? 18??ha) that had been delineated using pre- and post-fire Landsat imagery. Reference fires were considered detected if at least one MODIS active fire pixel occurred within 1??km of the edge of the fire. When active fire data from both Aqua and Terra were combined, 82% of all reference fires were found, but detection rates were less for Aqua and Terra individually (73% and 66% respectively). Fires not detected generally had more cloudy days, but not when the Aqua data were considered exclusively. MODIS detection rates decreased with fire size, and the size at which 50% of all fires were detected was 105??ha when combining Aqua and Terra (195??ha for Aqua and 334??ha for Terra alone). Across the United States, detection rates were greatest in the West, lower in the Great Plains, and lowest in the East. The MODIS active fire product captures large fires in the U.S. well, but may under-represent fires in areas with frequent cloud cover or rapidly burning, small, and low-intensity fires. We recommend that users of the MODIS active fire data perform individual validations to ensure that all relevant fires are included. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Concentration of selected sulfonylurea, sulfonamide, and imidazolinone herbicides, other pesticides, and nutrients in 71 streams, 5 reservoir outflows, and 25 wells in the Midwestern United States, 1998

Sulfonylurea (SU), sulfonamide (SA), and imidazolinone (IMI) herbicides are recently developed herbicides that function by inhibiting the action of a key plant enzyme, stopping plant growth, and eventually killing the plant. These compounds generally have low mammalian toxicity, but crop and non-crop plants demonstrate a wide range in sensitivity to SUs, SAs, and IMIs, with over a 10,000-fold difference in observed toxicity levels for some compounds. SUs, SAs, and IMIs are applied either pre- or post-emergence to crops commonly at 1/50th or less of the rate of other herbicides. Little is known about their occurrence, fate, or transport in surface water or ground water in the United States. To obtain information on the occurrence of SU, SA, and IMI herbicides in the Midwestern United States, 214 water samples were collected from 76 surface-water and 25 ground-water sites in 1998. These samples were analyzed for 16 SU, SA, and IMI herbicides by using highperformance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. Samples also were analyzed for 46 pesticides and pesticide degradation products and 13 herbicides and 10 herbicide degradates. At least 1 of the 16 SUs, SAs, or IMIs was detected at or above the method reporting limit of 0.010 microgram per liter (ug/L) in 83 percent of 133 stream samples. Imazethapyr was detected most frequently (69 percent of samples), followed by flumetsulam (65 percent of samples) and nicosulfuron (53 percent of samples). At least one SU, SA, or IMI herbicide was detected at or above the method reporting limit in 6 of 8 reservoir samples and 5 of 25 ground-water samples. SU, SA, and IMI herbicides occurred less frequently and at a fraction (often 1/50th or less) of the concentrations of other herbicides such as atrazine. Acetochlor, atrazine, cyanazine, and metolachlor were all detected in 95 percent or more of 136 stream samples.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗