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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Occam's shadow: levels of analysis in evolutionary ecology - where to next?

Evolutionary ecology is the study of evolutionary processes, and the ecological conditions that influence them. A fundamental paradigm underlying the study of evolution is natural selection. Although there are a variety of operational definitions for natural selection in the literature, perhaps the most general one is that which characterizes selection as the process whereby heritable variation in fitness associated with variation in one or more phenotypic traits leads to intergenerational change in the frequency distribution of those traits. The past 20 years have witnessed a marked increase in the precision and reliability of our ability to estimate one or more components of fitness and characterize natural selection in wild populations, owing particularly to significant advances in methods for analysis of data from marked individuals. In this paper, we focus on several issues that we believe are important considerations for the application and development of these methods in the context of addressing questions in evolutionary ecology. First, our traditional approach to estimation often rests upon analysis of aggregates of individuals, which in the wild may reflect increasingly non-random (selected) samples with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In some cases, analysis at the aggregate level, rather than the individual level, may obscure important patterns. While there are a growing number of analytical tools available to estimate parameters at the individual level, and which can cope (to varying degrees) with progressive selection of the sample, the advent of new methods does not reduce the need to consider carefully the appropriate level of analysis in the first place. Estimation should be motivated a priori by strong theoretical analysis. Doing so provides clear guidance, in terms of both (i) assisting in the identification of realistic and meaningful models to include in the candidate model set, and (ii) providing the appropriate context under which the results are interpreted. Second, while it is true that selection (as defined) operates at the level of the individual, the selection gradient is often (if not generally) conditional on the abundance of the population. As such, it may be important to consider estimating transition rates conditional on both the parameter values of the other individuals in the population (or at least their distribution), and population abundance. This will undoubtedly pose a considerable challenge, for both single- and multi-strata applications. It will also require renewed consideration of the estimation of abundance, especially for open populations. Thirdly, selection typically operates on dynamic, individually varying traits. Such estimation may require characterizing fitness in terms of individual plasticity in one or more state variables, constituting analysis of the norms of reaction of individuals to variable environments. This can be quite complex, especially for traits that are under facultative control. Recent work has indicated that the pattern of selection on such traits is conditional on the relative rates of movement among and frequency of spatially heterogeneous habitats, suggesting analyses of evolution of life histories in open populations can be misleading in some cases.

Journal of Applied Statistics↗
USGS2001

The Evolution of the Lower Missouri River: Preliminary Results of NMD Research at Lisbon Bottom

The purpose of this investigation is to determine the relationship between the geomorphology of Lisbon Bottom and the spatial and temporal distribution of its wetlands. The project is focused specifically on the Quaternary geology of the river valley and the relationship between the valley's alluvial architecture and the hydrogeology of its wetlands. The Quaternary geology of the river valley has been determined through a field reconnaissance and visual inspection of topographic maps and digital elevation data. Data describing the morphology of the main channel and the physical properties of Lisbon Bottom have been collected. On the basis of these data, a preliminary model of the alluvial architecture of Lisbon Bottom has been developed, but it lacks subsurface verification owing to equipment failures and unseasonable high water. To date, the publications and presentations describing the project include a U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report (OFR 01-176), two seminars hosted by the University of Missouri - Rolla, and an abstract that was submitted and accepted by the Geological Society of America for its annual fall meeting in November 2001.

Lisbon Bottom, Missouri River↗
USGS2019

Glacially-induced hydromechanical coupling in shale may have caused underpressured water in the eastern Michigan Basin despite the possible presence of gas phase methane

When glacial cycles occur above low-permeability geologic formations, such as the shale and limestone units being considered for nuclear waste disposal in Canada, pressures may differ greatly from normal hydrostatic conditions. Although shale also often has the propensity to generate separate phase fluids like natural gas, it is largely uncertain how the processes that control this behavior might affect water pressure evolution during loading cycles. Therefore, this study investigates the relationships among these fundamental system components via an example site that exhibits both a dramatic underpressure and potential evidence for gas phase methane in situ. A simple 1-D representation of the site was constructed, and hydromechanical coupling during a glacial cycle was simulated with and without gas phase methane present. Results indicate that, while the presence of gas phase dampened the effects of the loading cycle due to its higher compressibility compared to water, it did not preclude underpressure development.

Ontario↗
USGS2015

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2023

GeoAI for spatial image processing

The development of digital image processing, as a subset of digital signal processing, depended upon the maturity of photography and image science, introduction of computers, discovery and advancement of digital recording devices, and the capture of digital images. In addition, government and industry applications in the Earth and medical sciences were paramount to the growth of the technology. From the early days when photography was first introduced to science to today, artificial intelligence and deep learning technologies have been intensively used to analyze imagery. Spatial image processing has experienced breakthroughs and evolutions. This chapter presents an overview of the history of image processing, GeoAI-based image processing applications, and the role of GeoAI in advancing image processing methods and research. We also discussed the remaining challenges to using GeoAI for image processing regarding training data annotation, the issues of scale, resolution, and change in space over time.

Book chapter↗
USGS2007

Recommendations for a barrier island breach management plan for Fire Island National Seashore, including the Otis Pike High Dune Wilderness Area, Long Island, New York

The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, New York District is developing engineering plans, including economic costs and benefits, for storm damage reduction along an 83 mile stretch of the coastal barrier islands and beaches on the south shore of Long Island, NY from Fire Island Inlet east to the Montauk Point headland. The plan, expected to include various alternatives for storm protection and erosion mitigation, is referred to as the Fire Island to Montauk Point Reformulation Plan (FIMP). These plans are expected to follow the Corps of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles striving for long term environmental sustainability and balance between environmental protection and protection of human health and property. Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), a 19,579 acre unit of the National Park System includes a 32 mile long coastal barrier island located within the FIMP project area. A seven-mile section of the park, Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness Area, is also a designated Federal Wilderness Area. The FIIS includes not only the barrier island and sand dunes, but also several islands, sand flats and wetlands landward of the barrier, submerged parts of Great South Bay shoreface, extending approximately 4,000 feet into the bay with the inner shelf region extending approximately 1,000 feet seaward of the Fire Island shoreline. The Fire Island barrier islands, a sand-starved system dominated by highly dynamic processes, are struggling to maintain their integrity in the face of sea-level rise and storms. Adding to the dilemma is that development on the barriers and the mainland has increased greatly during the past 50 years. As such, managers and decision makers in federal agencies, state agencies and local governments are challenged to balance tradeoffs between protection of lives and property, public access and long term conservation of natural habitats and processes and the plants and animals that depend on these habitats. National Park Service (NPS) policy stipulates that natural coastal processes be maintained to the greatest extent possible and not be impeded so as to conserve landforms, habitats and natural ecosystem resources that reply on the landforms and processes for long-term sustainability of the national park. Storms and associated processes such as waves, tides, currents and relative sea-level change are critical elements for the formation and evolution of these barrier islands, sand dunes, back-barrier sand flats and lagoons and vegetated wetlands. Processes such as wave run-up, overwash and barrier beaching, which occur during elevated storm surge are all necessary processes in enabling the efficient transfer of sediments, nutrients and marine water from the Atlantic Ocean across barriers and into Great South Bay. A large body of scientific data and information published over the past 50 years shows that such transfers of sediment and water from the ocean to the bays are essential for the long-term maintenance of the barrier island and back-bay systems and their biologically diverse habitats an d ecosystems. Current relative sea-level rise (~12 in/century) is chronic and pervasive in driving Long Island coastal change and with the likelihood of accelerating sea level rise in the near future, coastal hazards such as erosion, inundation, and storm surge flooding will increase, with corresponding increased risk to life and property on both Fire Island and on the mainland. In addition, the cumulative effects over the past century and more, both direct and indirect, of human impacts on the Long Island coast have altered the barrier beach and dunes and sediment transport processes. These impacts have likely increased the potential for breaching and increased risk to life and property on the coast and the mainland. Examples of direct impacts are: the stone jetties at Moriches, Shinnecock, and Fire Island tidal inlets and groin field structures at Westhampton that alter littoral processes, armoring and erosion-control stabilization of the headlandds such as the Montauk Point headlands, and deepening of navigation channels by dredging through the tidal inlets and in the bays. Indirect impacts that have a bearing on decisions to deal with breaching are: high-risk development of the barrier islands and low-lying areas of the mainland vulnerable to flooding, and the dredging of nearshore sand shoals for beach nourishment. The NPS strives to employ a coastal management framework for decision making that is based on assessment of the physical and ecological properties of the shoreline as well as human welfare and property. In order to protect developed areas of Fire Island and the mainland from loss of life, flooding, and other economic and physical damage, the NPS will likely need to consider allowing artificial closure of some breaches within the FIIS under certain circumstances. The decision by the NPS to allow breaches to evolve naturally and possibly close or to allow artificially closing breaches is based on four criteria: 1. Volumes of sediment transported landward and exchange of water and nutrients; 2. Elevated water levels and flooding risk to mainland life and property; 3. Engineering processes of artificial closure; and 4. Economic costs and benefits of artificial closure. This report for breach management presents protocols which specify when breach closures within the FIIS might be desirable and necessary, as well as provides recommendations for structural breach closure engineering operations which are indented to minimize negative impacts to the natural wilderness values and cultural resources within the FIIS, particularly the Otis Pike Wilderness Area. The goal of the plan is to strike a balance between protecting natural resources and allowing natural processes to operate and avoiding loss of life and excessive property damage.

New York↗
USGS2018

Against the current— The Mojave River from sink to source: The 2018 Desert Symposium field trip road log

The Mojave River evolved over the past few million years by “fill and spill” from upper basins near its source in the Transverse Ranges to lower basins. Each newly “spilled into” basin in the series? sustained a long-lived lake but gradually filled with Mojave River sediment, leading to spill to a yet lower elevation? basin. The Mojave River currently terminates at Silver Lake, near Baker, CA, but previously overflowed this terminus onward to Lake Manly in Death Valley during the last glacial cycle. The river’s origin and evolution are intricately interwoven with tectonic, climatic, and geomorphic processes through time, beginning with San Andreas fault interactions that created a mountain range across a former externally draining river. We will see and discuss the Mojave River’s predecessor streams and basins, its evolution as it lengthened to reach the central Mojave Desert, local and regional tectonic controls, groundwater flow, flood history, and support of isolated perennial stream reaches that host endemic species. In association with these subjects are supporting studies such as paleoclimate records, location and timing for groundwater and wetlands in the central Mojave Desert, and effects of modern water usage. The trip introduces new findings for the groundwater basin of Hinkley Valley, including an ongoing remediation project that provides a wealth of information on past and present river flow and associated development of the groundwater system.

California↗
USGS1990

Mineralized and unmineralized calderas in Spain; Part I, evolution of the Los Frailes Caldera

The Cabo de Gata volcanic field of southeastern Spain contains several recently-recognized calderas. Some of the calderas are mineralized with epithermal gold, alunite, and base metal deposits, and others are barren, and yet they formed under generally similar conditions. Comparison of the magmatic, geochemical, and physical evolution of the Los Frailes, Rodalquilar, and Lomilla calderas provides insight into the processes of caldera evolution that led to precious-metal mineralization. The Los Frailes caldera formed at 14.4 Ma and is the oldest caldera. It formed in response to multiple eruptions of hornblende dacite magma. Following each eruption, the area collapsed and the caldera was invaded by the sea. Dacite domes fill the lower part of the caldera. Pyroxene andesites were erupted through the solidified core of the caldera and were probably initially responsible for magma generation. The Los Frailes caldera did not evolve to rhyolites nor was it subjected to the amount of structural development that the younger, mineralized Rodalquilar and Lomilla calderas were. ?? 1990 Springer-Verlag.

Mineralium Deposita↗
USGS2021

Gondwanic inheritance on the building of the western Central Andes (Domeyko Range, Chile): Structural and thermochronological approach (U-Pb and 40Ar-39Ar)

Tectonics inheritance controls the evolution of many orogens. To unravel the role of the Gondwanan heritage (late Paleozoic to Triassic) over the building of the Central Andes in northern Chile (Domeyko Range), we performed detrital U‐Pb zircon and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar muscovite geochronology along with structural analyses (kinematics and structural balancing). 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating of detrital muscovite reveals contrasting cooling histories for the Paleozoic basement of Triassic rift sub‐basins, indicating that NW‐striking crustal structures segmented the Andean forearc since at least the middle Permian, likely related to an accretional fabric developed along SW Gondwana. These structures can be inferred based on scattered faults, gravimetric data, and basement age disruptions. During the Late Triassic, NS‐striking master faults and secondary NW‐ to NNW‐striking faults configured an oblique rift, primarily driven by subduction dynamics. We suggest that along SW Gondwana, the slab‐pull would have controlled the development of subduction‐related rift basins close to the trench whereas Triassic inland rifts were mainly driven by Pangea‐breakup stresses. Compressional tectonics began in the Late Cretaceous, yet the inversion of the Triassic rift would have started during the Eocene with the inception of the metallogenic‐fertile transpressional Domeyko fault system. Thus, the structural style of this range was determined by the architecture of the Triassic rift, where the inversion of deep‐seated faults accounted for west‐vergent thick‐ and thin‐skinned structures. Pre‐Andean NW‐striking structures also accommodated tectonic rotations during the Incaic orogeny (Eocene‐Oligocene) and may delimit the rupture zone of large earthquakes, suggesting an underestimated role of such ancient discontinuities in Andean neotectonics.

Tectonics↗
USGS2019

Developing and testing physically based triggering thresholds for runoff‐generated debris flows

Runoff in steep channels is capable of transitioning into debris flows with hazardous implications for downstream communities and infrastructure, particularly in alpine landscapes with minimal vegetation and areas recently disturbed by wildfire. Here, we derive thresholds for the initiation of runoff‐generated debris flows based on critical values of dimensionless discharge and Shields stress. These thresholds are derived by using a numerical model to estimate the hydrodynamic conditions coinciding with the timing of debris flow activity in a recently burned basin. A benefit of hydrodynamic thresholds is that they can be used to assess debris flow likelihood based on measurable hydrologic and geomorphic parameters and therefore provide more universal criteria for quantifying the runoff‐to‐debris flow transition in landscape evolution studies and hazard assessments. We then demonstrate how hydrodynamic thresholds can be used to estimate rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐generated debris flows without the need for historic debris flow observations.

California↗
USGS2019

Are polar bear habitat resource selection functions developed from 1985-1996 data still useful?

1. Greenhouse gas-induced warming in the Arctic has caused declines in sea ice extent and changed its composition, raising concerns by all circumpolar nations for polar bear conservation. 2. Negative impacts have been observed in three well-studied polar bear subpopulations. Most subpopulations, however, receive little or no direct monitoring, hence, resource selection functions (RSF) may provide a useful proxy of polar bear distributions. However, the efficacy of RSFs constructed from past data, i.e., reference RSFs, may be degraded under contemporary conditions, especially in a rapidly changing environment. 3. We assessed published Arctic-wide reference RSFs using tracking data from adult female polar bears captured in the Beaufort Sea. We compared telemetry-derived seasonal distributions of polar bears to RSF-defined optimal sea ice habitat during the period of RSF model development, 1985–1995, and two subsequent periods with diminished sea ice: 1996–2006 and 2007–2016. From these comparisons, we assessed the applicability of the reference RSFs for contemporary polar bear conservation. 4. In the two decades following the 1985–1995 reference period, use and availability of optimal habitat by polar bears declined during the ice melt, ice minimum and ice growth seasons. During the ice maximum season (i.e., winter), polar bears used the best habitat available, which changed relatively little across the three decades of study. During the ice melt, ice minimum and ice growth seasons, optimal habitat in areas used by polar bears decreased and was displaced north and east of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast. As optimal habitat diminished in these seasons, polar bears expanded their range and occupied greater areas of sub-optimal habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications: Sea ice declines due to climate change continue to challenge polar bears and their conservation. The distribution of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears remained similar during the ice maximum season, so the reference RSFs developed from data collected >20 years ago continue to accurately model their winter distribution. In contrast, reference RSFs for the ice transitional and minimum seasons showed diminished predictive efficacy but were useful in revealing that contemporary polar bears have been increasingly forced to use sub-optimal habitats during those seasons.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2005

A simulation of the hydrothermal response to the Chesapeake Bay bolide impact

Groundwater more saline than seawater has been discovered in the tsunami breccia of the Chesapeake Bay impact Crater. One hypothesis for the origin of this brine is that it may be a liquid residual following steam separation in a hydrothermal system that evolved following the impact. Initial scoping calculations have demonstrated that it is feasible such a residual brine could have remained in the crater for the 35 million years since impact. Numerical simulations have been conducted using the code HYDROTHERM to test whether or not conditions were suitable in the millennia following the impact for the development of a steam phase in the hydrothermal system. Hydraulic and thermal parameters were estimated for the bedrock underlying the crater and the tsunami breccia that fills the crater. Simulations at three different breccia permeabilities suggest that the type of hydrothermal system that might have developed would have been very sensitive to the permeability. A relatively low breccia permeability (1 ?? 10-16 m2) results in a system partitioned into a shallow water phase and a deeper superheated steam phase. A moderate breccia permeability (1 ?? 10-15 m2 ) results in a system with regionally extensive multiphase conditions. A relatively high breccia permeability (1 ?? 10-14 m2 ) results in a system dominated by warm-water convection cells. The permeability of the crater breccia could have had any of these values at given depths and times during the hydrothermal system evolution as the sediments compacted. The simulations were not able to take into account transient permeability conditions, or equations of state that account for the salt content of seawater. Results suggest, however, that it is likely that steam conditions existed at some time in the system following impact, providing additional evidence that is consistent with a hydrothermal origin for the crater brine. ?? Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Geofluids↗
USGS2005

Quaternary geomorphology and modern coastal development in response to an inherent geologic framework: An example from Charleston, South Carolina

Coastal landscapes evolve over wide-ranging spatial and temporal scales in response to physical and biological processes that interact with a wide range of variables. To develop better predictive models for these dynamic areas, we must understand the influence of these variables on coastal morphologies and ultimately how they influence coastal processes. This study defines the influence of geologic framework variability on a classic mixed-energy coastline, and establishes four categorical scales of spatial and temporal influence on the coastal system. The near-surface, geologic framework was delineated using high-resolution seismic profiles, shallow vibracores, detailed geomorphic maps, historical shorelines, aerial photographs, and existing studies, and compared to the long- and short-term development of two coastal compartments near Charleston, South Carolina. Although it is clear that the imprint of a mixed-energy tidal and wave signal (basin-scale) dictates formation of drumstick barriers and that immediate responses to wave climate are dramatic, island size, position, and longer-term dynamics are influenced by a series of inherent, complex near-surface stratigraphic geometries. Major near-surface Tertiary geometries influence inlet placement and drainage development (island-scale) through multiple interglacial cycles and overall channel morphology (local-scale). During the modern marine transgression, the halo of ebb-tidal deltas greatly influence inlet region dynamics, while truncated beach ridges and exposed, differentially erodable Cenozoic deposits in the active system influence historical shoreline dynamics and active shoreface morphologies (block-scale). This study concludes that the mixed-energy imprint of wave and tide theories dominates general coastal morphology, but that underlying stratigraphic influences on the coast provide site-specific, long-standing imprints on coastal evolution.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2018

Sulfur isotopes of host strata for Howards Pass (Yukon–Northwest Territories) Zn-Pb deposits implicate anaerobic oxidation of methane, not basin stagnation

A new sulfur isotope stratigraphic profile has been developed for Ordovician-Silurian mudstones that host the Howards Pass Zn-Pb deposits (Canada) in an attempt to reconcile the traditional model of a stagnant euxinic basin setting with new contradictory findings. Our analyses of pyrite confirm the up-section 34 S enrichment reported previously, but additional observations show parallel depletion of carbonate 13 C, an increase in organic carbon weight percent, and a change in pyrite morphology. Taken together, the data suggest that the 34 S enrichment reflects a transition in the mechanism of pyrite formation during diagenesis, not isotopic evolution of a stagnant water mass. Low in the stratigraphic section, pyrite formed mainly in the sulfate reduction zone in association with organic matter–driven bacterial sulfate reduction. In contrast, starting just below the Zn-Pb mineralized horizon, pyrite formed increasingly within the sulfate-methane transition zone in association with anaerobic oxidation of methane. Our new insights on diagenesis have implications for (1) the setting of Zn-Pb ore formation, (2) the reliability of redox proxies involving metals, and (3) the source of ore sulfur for Howards Pass, and potentially for other stratiform Zn-Pb deposits contained in carbonaceous strata.

Northwest Territories, Yukon↗
USGS2024

A genomic hotspot of diversifying selection and structural change in the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus)

Background Previous work found that numerous genes positively selected within the hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ) lineage are physically clustered in regions of conserved synteny. Here I further validate and expand on those finding utilizing an updated L. cinereus genome assembly and additional bat species as well as other tetrapod outgroups. Methods A chromosome-level assembly was generated by chromatin-contact mapping and made available by DNAZoo ( www.dnazoo.org ). The genomic organization of orthologous genes was extracted from annotation data for multiple additional bat species as well as other tetrapod clades for which chromosome-level assemblies were available from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). Tests of branch-specific positive selection were performed for L. cinereus using PAML as well as with the HyPhy package for comparison. Results Twelve genes exhibiting significant diversifying selection in the L. cinereus lineage were clustered within a 12-Mb genomic window; one of these ( Trpc4 ) also exhibited diversifying selection in bats generally. Ten of the 12 genes are landmarks of two distinct blocks of ancient synteny that are not linked in other tetrapod clades. Bats are further distinguished by frequent structural rearrangements within these synteny blocks, which are rarely observed in other Tetrapoda. Patterns of gene order and orientation among bat taxa are incompatible with phylogeny as presently understood, implying parallel evolution or subsequent reversals. Inferences of positive selection were found to be robust to alternative phylogenetic topologies as well as a strong shift in background nucleotide composition in some taxa. Discussion This study confirms and further localizes a genomic hotspot of protein-coding divergence in the hoary bat, one that also exhibits an increased tempo of structural change in bats compared with other mammals. Most genes in the two synteny blocks have elevated expression in brain tissue in humans and model organisms, and genetic studies implicate the selected genes in cranial and neurological development, among other functions.

PeerJ↗
USGS2016

A multistate dynamic site occupancy model for spatially aggregated sessile communities

Estimation of transition probabilities of sessile communities seems easy in principle but may still be difficult in practice because resampling error (i.e. a failure to resample exactly the same location at fixed points) may cause significant estimation bias. Previous studies have developed novel analytical methods to correct for this estimation bias. However, they did not consider the local structure of community composition induced by the aggregated distribution of organisms that is typically observed in sessile assemblages and is very likely to affect observations. We developed a multistate dynamic site occupancy model to estimate transition probabilities that accounts for resampling errors associated with local community structure. The model applies a nonparametric multivariate kernel smoothing methodology to the latent occupancy component to estimate the local state composition near each observation point, which is assumed to determine the probability distribution of data conditional on the occurrence of resampling error. By using computer simulations, we confirmed that an observation process that depends on local community structure may bias inferences about transition probabilities. By applying the proposed model to a real data set of intertidal sessile communities, we also showed that estimates of transition probabilities and of the properties of community dynamics may differ considerably when spatial dependence is taken into account. Results suggest the importance of accounting for resampling error and local community structure for developing management plans that are based on Markovian models. Our approach provides a solution to this problem that is applicable to broad sessile communities. It can even accommodate an anisotropic spatial correlation of species composition, and may also serve as a basis for inferring complex nonlinear ecological dynamics.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2012

Holocene evolution of the merrimack embayment, northern massachusetts, interperted from shallow seismic stratigraphy

Recent multi-beam, backscatter, and bottom sediment data demonstrate that a large sand sheet was formed in the inner shelf by the reworking of the Merrimack River lowstand delta and braid plain (12 kya) during the Holocene transgression. Seismic data reveal the presence of widespread channel cut-and-fill structures landward of the delta suggesting that much of the sand sheet consists of braided stream deposits. These features map into several sets of cut-and-fill structures, indicating the avulsion of the primary river channels, which creates the lobes of the paleo-delta. Truncations of these, cut-and-fill structures suggest that the braid plain deposits were probably reworked during the Holocene transgression and may have contributed sand to developing barriers that presently border the Merrimack Embayment.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2022

Spatial dynamic N-mixture models with interspecific interactions

Interspecific interactions and movement are key factors that drive the coexistence of metapopulations in heterogenous landscapes. Yet, it is challenging to understand these factors because separating movement from local population processes relied on capture-based data that are difficult to collect. Recent development of spatial dynamic N-mixture models (SDNMs) made it possible to draw inference on local population growth and movement using count data of unmarked populations. However, no SDNMs have been developed to account for interspecific interactions and double counting observation errors. In this study we further developed SDNMs to account for interspecific interactions and both false negative and double counting observation errors. We conducted simulation studies to evaluate the inferential performance of these models under different ecological systems (competition, predator-prey), observation processes (binomial, Poisson), and sampling situations including the number of surveyed sites, detection, and the adoption of robust sampling design. We then illustrated the applications of these models with two case studies, one representing a competition system (mallard Anas platyrhynchos , northern pintail Anas acuta ) with binomial observations and the other representing a predator-prey system (bobcat Lynx rufus , wild turkey Meleagris gallopavo ) with Poisson observations. The results of the simulation studies showed that the models provide unbiased parameter estimates regardless of the ecological system, observation process, and sampling situation. Case studies further demonstrated the capabilities of these models in revealing important ecological processes. More specifically, the first case study revealed a negative effect of the superior competitor, Mallard, on the population growth of the inferior competitor, pintail as well as different movement patterns between these species, while the second case study reveal a top-down effect of bobcat abundance on wild turkey population growth and their differential habitat preferences. The models developed in this study could be used by themselves on count data or serve as population sub-models in integrated modeling frameworks to provide insights about metapopulation dynamics of interacting species in heterogeneous landscapes. The flexible structures of these models made them highly adaptive and relevant in population and community ecology.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗