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Mountain goat declines in a protected, interior, native population

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site ( n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Montana

Chemostratigraphy of the Cretaceous Hue Shale in Arctic Alaska: Exploring paleoceanographic controls on trace element enrichment, organic matter accumulation, and source-rock evolution

We document chemostratigraphy in an outcrop of late Albian to early Campanian (∼103–82 Ma) marine source rocks to better understand paleoenvironmental controls on trace element (TE) enrichment and organic matter accumulation in the distal Colville foreland basin of Arctic Alaska and how those drivers are linked to arc volcanism and successions of Cretaceous oceanographic and climatic biogeochemical events. This unique, 113-m-thick section of Cretaceous Hue Shale deposited during a series of previously undocumented Arctic Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events (Lease et al., 2024) is the only known exposure of thermally immature (0.48–0.52% R o , random vitrinite reflectance) Hue Shale in Arctic Alaska. Strata comprise mainly clay-rich mudstone with elevated total organic carbon (TOC) and hydrogen index values reaching 26.3 wt% (mean = 7.5 wt%) and 689 mg hydrocarbon (HC)/g TOC (mean = 385 mg HC/g TOC), respectively. Maceral composition consists predominantly of fluorescent amorphous organic matter, with abundant brightly fluorescent alginite, including Tasmanites , acritarchs, and Leiosphaeridia . Discrete layers of volcanic ash (preserved as bentonite) are present throughout the section and provide quantitative age control based on U–Pb dates. Chemostratigraphic trends are investigated to advance our understanding of local oceanographic conditions and controls on stratigraphic and temporal heterogeneity of Brookian source rocks. Concurrent sedimentary enrichment in Mo, U, V, Pb, and Cu across the Albian–Cenomanian boundary of the exposed basal gamma-ray zone, may reflect anoxic to euxinic benthic redox conditions favoring organic matter accumulation and preservation. Fluctuating degrees of anoxia-euxinia are inferred throughout the overlying Hue Shale succession, reflected by varying patterns of TE enrichment and TE–TOC covariation. Elevated C org /P molar ratios (>250) across most of the section, with several values exceeding 690, signify that enhanced biological productivity is sustained throughout deposition. Enhanced productivity, recorded by both C org /P and excess Ba, also parallels increases in source rock richness (elevated TOC and S 2 values) during the late Albian–early Cenomanian and late Cenomanian – Turonian. Enhanced productivity and variations in oceanic circulation/stratification likely both drove changes in benthic redox conditions that favored organic carbon accumulation and preservation. Increased continental arc volcanism (e.g., Okhotsk–Chukotka volcanic belt) and High Arctic Large Igneous Province magmatic eruptions throughout the Cretaceous, inferred to have influenced nutrient cycling and local aqueous nutrient availability, also have been invoked as potential drivers of organic carbon burial and source-rock development across the sedimentary sequence. Results presented here document the organic-rich and oil-prone source-rock quality of the Hue Shale in the distal part of the Colville foreland basin and bolster the potential for a Cretaceous petroleum system beneath the eastern North Slope.

Alaska

Influence of inherited structure on flexural extension in foreland basin systems: Evidence from the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA

Extensional faults are key components of foreland basin systems. They form within the upper crust in response to flexure of the lithosphere and accommodate subsidence within the foredeep and forebulge depozones. Such faults are excellent proxies for orogenic system evolution and control the distribution of natural resources and hazards. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of flexural extension has not been documented previously at a regional scale, thereby limiting our understanding of underlying geodynamic controls. Here, we resolve late Paleozoic flexural extension in the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA. We synthesize a large database of previous mapping, existing research, subsurface data, and geophysical data into 3D geologic and 2D kinematic models. Mesh surfaces representing several key horizons from the Carboniferous Period (ca. 335-306 Ma) were constructed. These surfaces were built from oil and gas well tops (n = ∼10,000) and surface geologic map contacts using an advanced kriging method. The mesh surfaces are offset by a complex 3D fault network, allowing detailed analysis of along-strike and down-dip variations in fault displacement. Analysis of the 3D model reveals a regular and repeated fault segmentation pattern wherein E -W striking, left- and foreland-stepping en échelon normal faults are segmented by inherited NE striking basement faults. Maximum vertical separation along the E -W normal faults is generally focused between the inherited NE-trending faults. This suggests that the inherited basement faults delocalized extensional strain during late Paleozoic normal faulting. Maximum vertical separation and fault localization may correlate to areas with high-amplitude positive magnetic anomalies interpreted as Mesoproterozoic granitic rocks. Speculative covariance of magnetic anomalies and fault displacements implies that the relatively strong basement granite concentrated stress, leading to localized faulting within the relatively thin sedimentary cover. Lastly, we show that flexural extension migrated southeast to northwest from the Chesterian-Morrowan (ca. 335-319 Ma) to the Desmoinesian (ca. 306 Ma). The migratory flexural extension may be explained by diachronous loading during Pangean assembly, or by synchronous loading but variable load compensation due to inherent factors.

Arkansas, Oklahoma

Water supply in the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, water years 2010–20

We present an assessment of water supply across the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico covering water years 2010–20. Our analysis drew on two national hydrologic models, the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and the Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrologic modeling system. Both models produced estimates of streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and other hydrologic states and fluxes. The models were driven by the bias-adjusted 4-kilometer-resolution, long-term regional hydroclimate simulation over the conterminous United States dataset (CONUS404). We assessed spatial and temporal error distributions by comparing monthly simulations at the 12-digit hydrologic unit code and regional scale from both models against external benchmarking datasets. Results showed that average annual rainfall across the CONUS was 857 millimeters per year for the period of analysis, with water year 2012 the driest year (729 millimeters) and water year 2019 the wettest year (995 millimeters). Key interannual variability results included the following: (1) the California–Nevada hydrologic region had the highest variability in precipitation and snow accumulation, and (2) the Texas hydrologic region was among hydrologic regions with the highest variability in precipitation. We related interannual variability in precipitation to storage volumes in soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and lakes and reservoirs to highlight areas with little storage and large year-to-year variability in precipitation. These areas included the Southern High Plains, Central High Plains, Texas, Souris–Red–Rainy, Mississippi Embayment, and Midwest regions. Our analysis of groundwater-level data showed that several of these areas overlap aquifers where groundwater levels were considerably lower than historical averages, including the Colorado Plateaus aquifers, the Rio Grande aquifer system, and the Central and Southern regions of the High Plains aquifer. Many of these lowered groundwater levels are continuations of decades-long declines from overpumping that started well before the assessment period. The resulting water budgets and their analyses provide a high-resolution foundational assessment of the mean state and variability of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle across the CONUS and Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico to support a wide range of water resource management applications.

Professional Paper

Conventional hydrothermal power-producing systems of the Great Basin, USA

As part of the update to the electric-grade conventional hydrothermal assessment of the Great Basin, USA, Monte Carlo analyses of identified resources within explored regions will be performed to make estimates of discovered resources and associated uncertainty. Analyses use conditional statistics where estimates are conditioned upon a hydrothermal favorability map, allowing for the likelihood that more resources exist in regions of higher hydrothermal favorability. For these analyses, a dataset of identified hydrothermal systems is compiled, and the new compilation is described herein. Recognizing that a single hydrothermal system may be developed with multiple power plants, and that the hydrothermal upflow zone may be several kilometers across with many measurements characterizing a single hydrothermal system, a procedure was developed and employed to create clusters of points (power plants, measurements, etc.) that are associated with a single system, and a new central point was defined as the best estimator of the center of the hydrothermal system. Hydrothermal systems were uniquely identified by grouping electric-grade hydrothermal measurements and operating power plants within a distance of 10 km. Groups that are >10 km apart are assumed to be different electric-grade hydrothermal systems. While 10 km was used as the threshold, most systems were significantly further apart, and most points within groups were typically within 5 km of each other. A well measurement was considered an electric-grade measurement of a hydrothermal system if it had two properties: a measured temperature of >85 °C and evidence of hydrothermal convection. Other points that were added to the dataset are locations of operating powerplants or locations that have been classified as an electric-grade hydrothermal resource by either the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) or the Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy. After all points are assigned to systems, new points were computed with the goal of identifying the center of the throat of the hydrothermal upflow zone. If operating powerplants exist for a system, then the arithmetic average of all power plant locations is used. Otherwise, if USGS made an estimate, that location is used. In the absence of both powerplants or USGS estimates, the arithmetic average of all electric-grade measurement locations is used. An example is shown of how these newly compiled locations might be ranked for uncertainty analyses, where higher confidence is assumed if measured temperature is higher and there are many supporting measurements indicating an electric-grade resource. In summary, 28 systems have operating power plants, an additional 78 systems are known identified electric-grade hydrothermal resources, and 99 new systems were identified as probable electric-grade systems with varying levels of confidence. These 205 locations are shown as a function of a recent hydrothermal favorability map, conceptually illustrating the conditional statistics that can be used to make estimates of the undiscovered resources of the Great Basin. An accompanying data release provides summaries of developed capacity by system and USGS estimates of likely total capacity and associated uncertainty.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

An inset groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of layering configuration on model calibration and assess managed aquifer recharge near Shellmound, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a high-resolution inset groundwater-flow model in the Mississippi Delta as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration coordinated by the Mississippi Alluvial Plain project to provide a tool that stakeholders can use to support water-resource management decisions. Groundwater withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have been vital to support agricultural production in the region, but substantial groundwater-level declines near Shellmound, Mississippi, have caused concerns for long-term sustainability of the aquifer. To better understand the subsurface and try to mitigate the long-term groundwater-level declines, stakeholders have undertaken actions including a Groundwater Transfer and Injection Pilot (GTIP) project using a riverbank filtration-based managed aquifer recharge approach. The pilot project consisted of extracting groundwater near the Tallahatchie River and reinjecting it into the aquifer 3 kilometers west where water levels have substantially declined. A high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey was also completed to collect electrical resistivity data to support the GTIP project and the development of the groundwater model. The inset groundwater-flow model was developed to (1) integrate the AEM data into the optimal layering configuration of the MRVA aquifer that the available observation data can support through calibration, and (2) assess the potential effect of the GTIP project on the groundwater levels. The AEM data were processed into three different layering configurations leading to the development of model A (18 layers), model B (16 layers), and model C (8 layers), all at a 100- x 100-meter cell spatial resolution using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model 6 code with Newton-Raphson formulation. The model development process integrated recent advances in modeling, such as the incorporation of AEM data, the use of outputs from the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, and the Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model, and was facilitated by robust automation using the open-source python packages Modflow-setup and SFRmaker. Using Parameter Estimation ++ Iterative Ensemble Smoother, the three numerical groundwater-flow models (models A, B, and C) were calibrated against a set of observations, which included aquifer groundwater levels, streamflows, stream stage, and aquifer transmissivity. Results indicate that the detailed representation of MRVA aquifer layers in model A produced the best calibrated model by history matching, and the integration of data representing surficial connectivity played a key role in improving groundwater recharge and enhancing the ability of the model to match groundwater levels in the cone of depression. A forecast model simulated the managed aquifer recharge approach, and the results indicated that, given average irrigation and recharge conditions (2010–15), the GTIP project has the potential to induce groundwater-level increases of as much as 3 meters around the injection site, but a sustained increase would require repetition in subsequent years of water transfer at 2022 rates or above.

Mississippi

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of Virginia’s Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis conducted on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore shows that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system due to local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have fundamentally altered groundwater flow from pre-development conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers supplying groundwater is a relatively small portion of the total groundwater water budget for the aquifer system. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model show that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal water bodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer currently is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from areas outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2025, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum have resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or in adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. Downward groundwater flow continues under current conditions, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, those rates are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Estimated groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, though that was not measured directly in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, show that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up over 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. Currently, estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The current withdrawal rate from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and small rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

EarthArXiv

Preliminary field report of landslide hazards following Hurricane Helene

Executive Summary This report reflects our knowledge regarding the widespread landslide activity associated with Hurricane Helene observed during the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission assignment to North Carolina in October 2024. The material in this report was originally prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency under mission assignment DR-4827-NC. The data and commentary in this report are reflective of a report provided to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) on October 18, 2024, as well as information provided in briefings at the Buncombe County Emergency Operations Center. The report has been modified for public dissemination. This assessment was based on systematic visual examination and mapping of landslide locations from aerial and satellite imagery, visual and photographic observations from low-level helicopter overflights and conversations with local landslide experts from the North Carolina Geological Survey and Appalachian Landslide Consultants PLLC, and more than 50 years of combined landslide hazard professional experience of the mission-assigned field team. No systematic field investigations were done by the USGS. While responding to the event, the USGS did not identify any landslides that posed an immediate major threat to recovery personnel in parts of nine counties in North Carolina (Avery, Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Watauga, and Yancey); however, threats from renewed landslide activity may remain heightened in localized areas for months or even years. Known areas of the most abundant landslide occurrence include Bat Cave, Lake Lure, Chimney Rock, Swannanoa, Black Mountain, Fairview, steep areas in Asheville, and the Blue Ridge Parkway. The USGS shared detailed locations of known landslides with the Emergency Operations Centers. The thousands of landslide scars on hillsides and landslide deposits on flatter ground may present some threat to recovery activities. Soil and rocks will continue to erode from newly exposed landslide scars and may pose a threat to people and infrastructure who are immediately nearby. In general, the steeper and taller the landslide scar, the greater the potential threat. This threat is heightened during periods of rainfall and increases with the duration and intensity of rainstorms. Very heavy rainfall, or repeated rainfall events during short periods, could also initiate new landslides on steep slopes. Excavation of landslide deposits, particularly excavation of those deposits directly adjacent to steep slopes, may also pose a threat to nearby people and equipment. An interagency collaborative mapping effort led by the USGS that informed this assessment identified 1,155 landslide locations by the October 2024 briefings, but that number increased to 2,217 in a final reviewed version of the locations published in January 2025. Locations were mapped from satellite imagery, fixed-wing and helicopter surveys, media and social media, and field reports in the 3 weeks following the passage of the remnants of Hurricane Helene. USGS products outlined in this report are publicly available and include geotagged photographs from aerial reconnaissance, hazard models, an interactive view of mapped landslide locations, and landslide safety and education resources.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virgini

Update of the 2008 provisional Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) assessment for the Great Basin, USA

In response to the Energy Act of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource assessment for the Great Basin, USA. The previous 2008 provisional assessment estimated how much electricity could be generated from EGS resources of the western United States using models of electric-grade heat, models of heat extraction over time, and estimates of how much rock might be stimulated to produce viable amounts of heat. Herein, a similar conceptual strategy is applied, using updated models of heat extraction as a function of fracture spacing and well distance. Previously used reservoir heat delivery models are updated to have a dependence on fracture and well spacing, potentially improving future estimates of EGS resources as ongoing research provides a better understanding about the success of reservoir stimulation as a function of geology and location. For a range of well distances (250-1000 m) and fracture spacings (1-50 m), heat extraction efficiency ranges from 25-62%, demonstrating the importance of accounting for the most likely results of proven viable fracturing technologies. Although fracturing is important, the biggest uncertainty by far in estimating the EGS resource for the Great Basin is estimating which geologic units at what depths can be stimulated sufficiently to produce geothermal energy economically and efficiently. Uncertainties in these factors yield estimates that range over two orders of magnitude with an upper limit of ~174 terawatts-thermal (TWth) produced for 30 years from the upper 7 km of the crust. This upper limit would require significant technological advances to access most of the electric-grade resource across the Great Basin. Assuming that 1% of this estimate will be accessible in the next few decades gives a resource estimate similar to that made in the 2008 provisional assessment. These estimated EGS heat extraction rates far exceed ( greater than 100x) the natural geothermal heat production rate, thus geothermal electricity production at these rates might not be sustainable unless heat is also recharged from other sources (e.g., excess solar energy when supply exceeds demand). In addition to assessment maps and cumulative estimates, the new models of fractured reservoirs developed herein can be used to estimate steady power production given a set of fractures and well spacing, and estimates can be made for setback distances to ensure no thermal interference with nearby powerplants.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

Ground-water flow in the surficial aquifer system and potential movement of contaminants from selected waste-disposal sites at Naval Station Mayport, Florida

Ground-water flow through the surficial aquifer system at Naval Station Mayport near Jacksonville, Florida, was simulated with a two-layer finite-difference model as part of an investigation conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model was calibrated to 229 water-level measurements from 181 wells during three synoptic surveys (July 17, 1995; July 31, 1996; and October 24, 1996). A quantifiable understanding of ground-water flow through the surficial aquifer was needed to evaluate remedial-action alternatives under consideration by the Naval Station Mayport to control the possible movement of contaminants from sites on the station. Multi-well aquifer tests, single-well tests, and slug tests were conducted to estimate the hydraulic properties of the surficial aquifer system, which was divided into three geohydrologic units�an S-zone and an I-zone separated by a marsh-muck confining unit. The recharge rate was estimated to range from 4 to 15 inches per year (95 percent confidence limits), based on a chloride-ratio method. Most of the simulations following model calibration were based on a recharge rate of 8 inches per year to unirrigated pervious areas. The advective displacement of saline pore water during the last 200 years was simulated using a particle-tracking routine, MODPATH, applied to calibrated steady-state and transient models of the Mayport peninsula. The surficial aquifer system at Naval Station Mayport has been modified greatly by natural and anthropogenic forces so that the freshwater flow system is expanding and saltwater is being flushed from the system. A new MODFLOW package (VAR1) was written to simulate the temporal variation of hydraulic properties caused by construction activities at Naval Station Mayport. The transiently simulated saltwater distribution after 200 years of displacement described the chloride distribution in the I-zone (determined from measurements made during 1993 and 1996) better than the steady-state simulation. The advective movement of contaminants from selected sites within the solid waste management units to discharge points was simulated using MODPATH. Most of the particles were discharged to the nearest surface-water feature after traveling less than 1,000 feet in the ground-water system. Most areas within 1,000 feet of a surface-water feature or storm sewer had traveltimes of less than 50 years, based on an effective porosity of 40 percent. Contributing areas, traveltimes, and pathlines were identified for 224 wells at Naval Station Mayport under steady-state and transient conditions by back-tracking a particle from the midpoint of the wetted screen of each well. Traveltimes to contributing areas that ranged between 15 and 50 years, estimated by the steady-state model, differed most from the transient traveltime estimates. Estimates of traveltimes and pathlines based on steady-state model results typically were 10 to 20 years more and about twice as long as corresponding estimates from the transient model. The models differed because the steady-state model simulated 1996 conditions when Naval Station Mayport had more impervious surfaces than at any earlier time. The expansion of the impervious surfaces increased the average distance between contributing areas and observation wells.

Florida

Evaluation of water quality in the Langford Valley–Irwin Groundwater Subbasin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, 1993–2019

The U.S. Army Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), 120 miles northeast of Los Angeles in the Mojave Desert of California, obtains its potable water supply from the Bicycle Valley and Langford Valley groundwater basins; Langford Valley groundwater basin is further subdivided into the Langford Well Lake and Irwin groundwater subbasins. The Irwin groundwater subbasin contains younger, unconsolidated deposits that have a saturated thickness of as much as 200 feet (ft) and a lower aquifer within older unconsolidated deposits as thick as 650 ft. Groundwater recharge under predevelopment conditions (before 1941) occurred primarily from infiltration of intermittent streamflow in small washes that cross the Irwin groundwater subbasin. Since that time, groundwater recharge has increased because of growth of the NTC in recent years and as a result of other processes, including (1) infiltration of treated wastewater into the aquifer through ponds near the NTC wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) and (2) infiltration of imported water and treated wastewater used for landscape irrigation at base housing and athletic fields. Water samples were collected from 17 wells and analyzed for field parameters, chemical constituents, and isotope composition in the Irwin groundwater subbasin between 2014 and 2019. These data were supplemented with water-chemistry data collected during 1993–95 and at other times if available. Between 1993–95 and 2015–19, median dissolved solids and nitrate concentrations in water from wells in the Irwin groundwater subbasin increased from 620 to 1,030 milligrams per liter (mg/L) and from 2.8 to 4.5 mg/L as nitrogen, respectively. After 2014, dissolved solids and nitrate concentrations in water from wells near the NTC WWTF decreased as a result of changes in source water quality attributable to reverse osmosis of treated drinking water delivered within the Irwin groundwater subbasin and to increased levels of treatment at the NTC WWTF. Based on delta oxygen-18 and delta deuterium isotope data, increases in dissolved solids concentrations in water from most wells were consistent with evaporation prior to recharge and mobilization of soluble salts from the unsaturated zone. Arsenic and fluoride concentrations in water from wells decreased between 1993–95 and 2015–19 as the basin filled with treated wastewater, but 2015–19 concentrations generally exceeded the California State Water Resources Control Board maximum contaminant levels of 10 micrograms per liter for arsenic and 2 mg/L for fluoride. Most groundwater in the Irwin groundwater subbasin has unadjusted carbon-14 ages ranging from 18,400 to 12,350 years before present. However, water from well 10E3, located along the wash near the subbasin outflow in the southeastern part of the Irwin groundwater subbasin, contained measurable tritium, which is consistent with infiltration of intermittent streamflow and groundwater recharge from the wash after 1952. Chemical and isotopic data indicate that treated wastewater is present in water from most wells in the upper aquifer that underlies the Irwin groundwater subbasin. Wells were not sampled to adequately determine the extent of treated wastewater and changes in water quality within the lower aquifer that underlies the Irwin groundwater subbasin.

California

Groundwater hydrology, groundwater and surface-water interactions, water quality, and groundwater-flow simulations for the Wet Mountain Valley alluvial aquifer, Custer and Fremont Counties, Colorado, 2017–19

In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Arkansas Water Conservancy District, began a study to provide a comprehensive analysis of the Wet Mountain Valley alluvial aquifer, Custer and Fremont Counties, Colorado. The study included collection of data pertaining to groundwater hydrology, groundwater and surface-water interactions, and water quality in the alluvial aquifer. In addition to providing foundational information on the hydrology of the alluvial aquifer, a numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to estimate the potential effects of additional storage of groundwater in the alluvial aquifer. Groundwater-level elevation data from 30 wells were used to estimate groundwater-flow directions in the alluvial aquifer, which were generally from the southwest to northeast, away from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and towards perennial streams in the center of the valley. Although some seasonal variation was apparent in groundwater-level elevation records, no statistically significant seasonal trends were indicated. Statistically significant long-term trends were indicated in groundwater-level elevation records for 8 of the 30 wells, and of these wells with statistically significant trends, all but 1 indicated a negative trend of groundwater-level elevations. Spatial evaluation of wells with statistically significant negative groundwater-level elevation trends showed many are in areas of denser well drilling for domestic or other uses, indicating increasing groundwater use could potentially be causing groundwater-level elevation declines. There were instances of wells with no statistically significant groundwater-level elevation trends also located in areas of greater density of well completions. Additional investigations may be necessary to more fully characterize the processes responsible for negative groundwater-level elevation trends. Streamflow gain or loss calculations were completed for low flow in 2017–19 and for high flow in 2018 in nine reaches of streams within the study area. Stream reaches of the upper Texas Creek, upper Grape Creek, upper-middle Grape Creek, and Taylor Creek displayed consistent streamflow loss in each period from 2017 to 2019. These stream reaches represent long-term sources of recharge to the alluvial aquifer. Streamflow gain or loss varies through time in other stream reaches (lower Texas Creek, lower-middle Grape Creek, lower Grape Creek below Westcliffe, and lower Grape Creek above DeWeese Reservoir). The temporally variable behavior indicates these stream reaches may be sources of groundwater recharge or areas of groundwater discharge, likely depending on temporal dynamics between the elevation of the water table and the stream. Water-quality samples were collected from 10 groundwater wells and 10 stream sites during September through November 2019. All groundwater and stream samples were analyzed for major and trace elements and stable isotopes of water. A subset of groundwater samples was also analyzed for the environmental tracers sulfur hexafluoride, tritium, and noble gases. Comparison of water-quality results to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water-quality standards indicated no constituents exceeded primary standards for human health. Spatial evaluation of water quality indicated the concentrations of various constituents are likely controlled by groundwater and surface-water interactions and by spatial variability in bedrock geology underlying the alluvial aquifer. Specifically, streams shown to gain from groundwater had water chemistry constituent compositions similar to groundwater, whereas streams exiting the Sangre de Cristo Mountains tended to have compositions consistent with snowmelt. Groundwater geochemistry appeared to be partially controlled by oxidation-reduction processes and by proximity to igneous rocks in the Wet Mountains. Environmental tracers used to estimate groundwater age indicated all sampled groundwater contained tracers representing modern recharge (approximately less than 65 years old) but mixing of premodern recharge (approximately more than 65 years old) also occurs. Spatial evaluation of environmental tracers indicated large faults may be conduits for upwelling of older groundwater. No trends were observed in groundwater age with well depth, indicating all sampled wells are located within the zone of active groundwater flow. The presence of modern groundwater in wells with statistically significant negative groundwater-level elevation trends indicates groundwater storage depletions may be partially offset by capture of modern recharge. Repeated sampling of groundwater age would be necessary, however, to determine if any trends in groundwater age exist, which may indicate changing groundwater recharge, storage, or discharge. Additional investigations could also consider quantifying groundwater age in deeper wells to more fully define the depth of active groundwater flow. A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to estimate components of the water budget, simulate groundwater and surface-water interactions, and evaluate the potential effects of aquifer storage and recovery. Simulated groundwater-level elevations from the calibrated groundwater-flow model are similar to the observed pattern of groundwater-level elevations with higher elevations in the western part of the study area along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Simulated water-budget components indicate most of the recharge to the alluvial aquifer is derived from streamflow losses, which is consistent with observations of losing streams along the mountain front. The largest groundwater discharge component of the alluvial aquifer was to streams in the center of the valley, where observations of stream gain or loss indicated the predominance of gaining conditions. Comparison of groundwater and surface-water interactions between the calibrated groundwater-flow model for 2000-19 (the base-case model) and a simulation including additional recharge, representing potential aquifer storage and recovery operations, indicated the additional recharge distributed throughout the area had minimal effects on streamflow in the nearby Grape Creek. An analysis of subregional groundwater budgets showed approximately 54 percent of the additional recharge flowed back to nearby Grape Creek, and the other 46 percent was distributed laterally into adjacent cells in the alluvial aquifer. The comparison of simulations and subregional water budget show the additional recharge did not substantially alter groundwater-level elevations or basin wide groundwater storage. Although the analysis of additional recharge provided in the numerical groundwater-flow model considers only one of many possible recharge scenarios, the model provides a useful tool that could be modified for various scenarios to understand potential effects of managed aquifer recharge.

Colorado

Water-quality conditions and relation to drainage-basin characteristics in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, 1982-95

The Scituate Reservoir Basin covers about 94 square miles in north central Rhode Island and supplies more than 60 percent of the State of Rhode Island's drinking water. The basin includes the Scituate Reservoir Basin and six smaller tributary reservoirs with a combined capacity of about 40 billion gallons. Most of the basin is forested and undeveloped. However, because of its proximity to the Providence, Rhode Island, metropolitan area, the basin is subject to increasing development pressure and there is concern that this may lead to the degradation of the water supply. Selected water-quality constituent concentrations, loads, and trends in the Scituate Reservoir Basin, Rhode Island, were investigated locate parts of the basin likely responsible for exporting disproportionately large amounts of water-quality constituents to streams, rivers, and tributary reservoirs, and to determine whether water quality in the basin has been changing with time. Water-quality data collected between 1982 and 1995 by the Providence Water Supply Board PWSB) in 34 subbasins of the Scituate Reservoir Basin were analyzed. Subbasin loads and yields of total coliform bacteria, chloride, nitrate, iron, and manganese, estimated from constituent concentrations and estimated mean daily discharge records for the 1995 water year, were used to determine which subbasins contributed disproportionately large amounts of these constituents. Measurements of pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations of total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese made between 1982 and 1995 by the PWSB were evaluated for trends. To determine the potential effects of human-induced changes in drainage- basin characteristics on water quality in the basin, relations between drainage-basin characteristics and concentrations of selected water-quality constituents also were investigated. Median values for pH, turbidity, total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, and iron were largest in subbasins with predominately residential land use. Median instantaneous loads reflected drainage-basin size. However, loads normalized by drainage area (median instantaneous yields) also were largest in residential areas where point and non-point sources are likely, and in areas of poorly drained soils. Significant trends in water-quality constituents from 1982 to 1995 in the Scituate Reservoir Basin indicate that the quality of the water resources in the basin may be slowly changing. Scituate Reservoir subbasins with large amounts of residential land use showed increasing trends in alkalinity and chloride. In contrast, subbasins distributed throughout the drainage basin showed increasing trends in pH, color, nitrate, and iron concentrations, indicating that these characteristics and constituents may be affected more by atmospheric deposition. Although changing, water-quality constituent concentrations in the Scituate Reservoir Basin only occasionally exceeded Rhode Island and USEPA water-quality guidelines and standards. Result of correlation analysis between pH, color, turbidity, and concentrations total coliform bacteria, sodium, alkalinity, chloride, nitrate, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese and land use, geology, wetlands, slope, soil drainability, and roads indicated that the percentage of wetlands, roads, and slope appear have the greatest effect on water-quality in the Scituate Reservoir Basin. The percentage of urban, residential, and commercial land use also are important, but to a lesser degree than wetlands, roads, and slope. Finally, geology appears to have the least effect on water quality compared to other drainage-basin characteristics investigated.

Rhode Island

Distributed volcanic fields—Patterns, products, processes, and plumbing

Distributed volcanic fields—also referred to as “monogenetic fields” or simply “volcanic fields”—are found on every continent, on the seafloors, and in every tectonic setting on Earth. Yet, our understanding of what constitutes a distributed volcanic field, and our knowledge of the common products, spatiotemporal patterns in activity, and plumbing systems of these fields, are commonly poor and (or) debated. Here we provide an overview of the current understanding of distributed volcanic fields (DVFs) through review and compilation of published data, with an emphasis on understanding the characteristics of fields that are essential to prepare for future hazardous volcanic activity. Distributed fields can erupt restricted to variable magma compositions. Activity in these fields produces nearly all types of volcanoes, including scoria and spatter cones, maars, low shields, lava fields, stratovolcanoes, and calderas, but monogenetic volcanoes are the defining characteristic of DVFs. The number of vents and lifespans of DVFs vary greatly; vent numbers range from 2 to greater than 1,000, and fields can remain active for 150,000 to 10 million years. Some characteristics of DVFs appear field dependent. Although the volumes of single monogenetic eruptions within DVFs globally are variable (from less than 0.1 to a few cubic kilometers), each field may have a characteristic range in eruption volumes. Eruptions within distributed volcanic fields can have a random distribution and timing, but spatial and (or) temporal vent clustering and alignment are common, and eruptions may be time or volume predictable. Average eruption recurrence intervals in DVFs span over an order of magnitude, from less than 3 to greater than 100 thousand years. Exposures of the shallow portions of older systems reveal that many magma batches end their ascent before reaching the surface, with some dikes stopping within only meters of the surface. Petrologic insights into the deeper plumbing systems of DVF volcanoes indicate variable depths of magma crystallization and (or) stalling, and that magma transport and storage systems may be unique to a particular DVF and its underlying crustal structure. Both seismic and petrologic data for mafic DVF eruptions corroborate intrusions of magma into storage systems in the months to years before eruption, as well as variable ascent rates through the crust (days to weeks). Few distributed fields are closely monitored, as they erupt infrequently, but these observations imply that the amount of time available to install monitoring instrumentation after the first felt seismicity may be short, as precursory activity is frequently on the order of days to months for modern DVF eruptions. Satellite-based geodesy may provide useful warning in such cases. This chapter concludes with outstanding questions and areas for future research that will aid in our understanding and preparedness for future DVF eruptions.

Professional Paper

Effects of a low-lipid diet on the gut microbiome and head kidney transcriptome of juvenile Chinook Salmon

Objective Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. reared in production hatcheries are typically fed high-lipid, energy-dense diets to achieve large size and high body condition prior to release. In contrast, juveniles in natural environments tend to consume low-lipid, high-protein diets, and fish reared for research or conservation purposes are sometimes fed diets that are formulated to mimic natural diets and promote wild-like phenotypes. Understanding how these alternative diets affect fish health beyond growth and body condition could ultimately contribute to improving hatchery fish fitness. Methods In this work, we evaluated changes in the fecal microbiome and gene expression of juvenile Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha on a standard high-lipid hatchery diet versus a low-lipid diet formulated to mimic the nutrition profile of natural-origin fish. To evaluate the time scale at which diet alters the fecal microbiome, we collected longitudinal samples over a 12-week period and switched the diets of a subset of fish twice during the experiment. We used 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicon sequencing to characterize fecal microbiome differences between fish on the two diets as well as hatchery-reared fish at a production hatchery, hatchery fish that had been captured after release into a stream, and natural-origin, stream-reared fish of similar ages. Additionally, we conducted RNA sequencing on head kidney samples from laboratory-reared fish to evaluate changes in gene expression in this important immune organ. Results We found that the low-lipid diet and the hatchery diet resulted in microbiomes that differed from the microbiome of natural-origin fish and from each other and that diet-driven changes to the microbiome could occur in under 14 d. The low-lipid diet did not result in a microbiome that resembled the microbiome of naturally produced fish. Instead, the low-lipid diet resulted in a microbiome community that was distinct from those of fish reared on the hatchery diet and fish sampled from the wild. The RNA sequencing results indicated differential enrichment of pathways related to immunity, metabolism, and hormone synthesis between fish that were fed the two experimental diets. Conclusions The results suggest that additional environmental factors influence the microbiome more strongly than diet formulation or that the low-lipid diet has a smaller effect on the microbiome than a natural, ­invertebrate-based diet. Given that the gut microbiome and systemic immune function contribute significantly to disease resistance, our findings highlight the importance of understanding how diets fed to fish in captivity may affect fish health beyond growth and body condition metrics.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon

Leachate plumes in ground water from Babylon and Islip landfills, Long Island, New York

Landfills operated by the Towns of Babylon and Islip in southwest and central Suffolk County contain urban refuse, incinerated garbage, and scavenger (cesspool) waste; some industrial refuse is deposited at the Babylon site. The Islip landfill was started in 1933, the Babylon landfill in 1947. The landfills are in contact with and discharge leachate into the highly permeable upper glacial aquifer (hydraulic conducitvity 190 to 500 ft/d [feet per day]). The aquifer is 74 feet thick at the Babylon landfill and 170 feet thick at the Islip landfill. The leachate-enriched water occupies the entire thickness of the aquifer beneath both landfills, but hydrologic boundaries retard downward migration of the plumes to deeper aquifers. The Babylon plume is 1,900 feet wide at the landfill and narrows to about 700 feet near its terminus 10,000 feet from the landfill. The Islip plume is 1,400 feet wide at the landfill and narrows to 500 feet near its terminus 5,000 feet from the landfill. Hydrochemical maps and sections show the distribution of the major chemical constituents of the plumes. The most highly leachate-enriched ground water obtained was from the Babylon site; it contained 860 mg/L (milligrams per liter) sodium, 110 mg/L potassium, 565 mg/L calcium, 100 mg/L magnesium, 2,700 mg/L bicarbonate, and 1,300 mg/L chloride. Sulfate was notably absent or in low concentration in most parts of both plumes. Nitrogen in plume water was mostly in the form NH4+, and concentrations as high as 90 mg/L were found; concentrations of nitrogen as N in the plume were less than 10 mg/L. As much as 440 mg/L iron and 190 mg/L manganese were found in the leachate-enriched water. Samples were also tested for arsenic, boron, cadmium, cobalt, chromium, copper, mercury, nickel, lead, selenium, strontium, and zinc. Boron was more or less ubiquitous and was found in concentrations as high as 2 mg/L. Organic carbon was found in concentrations as high as 2,250 mg/L in the most highly leachate-enriched water but attenuated rapidly to less than 20 mg/L. Dissolved-solids concentrations near the landfills were between 400 and 3,000 mg/L at Babylon and between 500 and 1,500 mg/L at Islip. Ground-water temperatures near the landfills exceed those in ambient water by as much as 7°C at Babylon and 16°C at Islip. Heat contributed by the landfills was mostly dissipated within 0.4 mi of the landfill, butat Islip, the warm leachate-enriched water extended 0.5 mi downgradient. The entrance of leachate into the less dense ground water as pulsations after rainfall may explain the presence of high leachate enrichment near the bottom of the aquifer. A comparison of the physical characteristics of leachate-enriched ground water with those of ambient water suggests that the downward movement of leachate results from its greater density. Simulation of the movement and dispersion of the Babylon plume with a mathematical dispersion model indicated the coefficient of longitudinal dispersion to be about 60 ft 2 /d (feet squared per day) and the ground-water velocity to be 1 ft/d. However, the velocity determined from the hydraulic gradient and public-supply wells in the area was 4 ft/d, which would cause a plume four times as long as that predicted by the mathmatical dispersion model. At the Islip site, the plume was one-third the length calculated on the basis of the age of the landfill. The shortness of the plumes has not been explained; it may be a result of the leachate's having been too dilute to form a plume during the early years of the landfills.

New York

Water quality of selected springs and public-supply wells, Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota, 1992-97

This report presents results of a water-quality study for the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Water Resources Department of the Oglala Sioux Tribe. Discharge and water-quality data were collected during 1992-97 for 14 contact springs located in the northwestern part of the Reservation. Data were collected to evaluate potential alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt, which currently obtains water of marginal quality from a well completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. During 1995-97, water-quality data also were collected for 44 public-supply wells that serve about one-half of the Reservation's population. Quality-assurance sampling was used to evaluate the precision and accuracy of environmental samples. Ten of the springs sampled contact the White River Group, and four contact the Pierre Shale. Springs contacting the White River Group range from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate water types. Two springs contacting the Pierre Shale have water types similar to this; however, sulfate is the dominant anion for the other two springs. In general, springs contacting the White River Group are shown to have better potential as alternative sources of water supply for the village of Red Shirt than springs contacting the Pierre Shale. Nine of the springs with better water quality were sampled repeatedly; however, only minor variability in water quality was identified. Six of these nine springs, of which five contact the White River Group, probably have the best potential for use as water supplies. Discharge from any of these six springs probably would provide adequate water supply for Red Shirt during most periods, based on a limited number of discharge measurements collected. Concentrations of lead exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) action level of 15 µg/L for three of these six springs. Five of these six springs also had arsenic concentrations that exceeded 10 µg/L, which could be problematic if the current maximum contaminant level (MCL) is lowered. Blending of water from one or more springs with water from the existing Inyan Kara well may be an option to address concerns regarding both quantity and quality of existing and potential sources. All nine springs that were sampled for indicator bacteria had positive detections on one or more occasions during presumptive tests. Although USEPA standards for bacteria apply only to public-water supplies, local residents using spring water for domestic purposes need to be aware of the potential health risks associated with consuming untreated water. One spring contacting the White River Group and two springs contacting the Pierre Shale exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Nine springs were sampled for selected pesticides and tritium. The pesticides atrazine, carbaryl, and 2,4-D were not detected in any of the samples. The nine springs were analyzed for tritium in order to generally assess the age of the water and to determine if concentrations exceeded the MCL established for gross beta-particle activity. Tritium results indicated two springs are composed primarily of water recharged prior to atmospheric testing of nuclear bombs and two other springs have a relatively large percentage of test-era water. The remaining five springs had tritium values that indicated some percentage of test-era water; however, additional sampling would be needed to determine whether water is predominantly pre- or post-bomb age. Of the 44 public-supply wells sampled, 42 are completed in the Arikaree aquifer, one is completed in an alluvial aquifer, and one is completed in the Inyan Kara aquifer. Water from the alluvial well is a sodium bicarbonate water type, water from Arikaree aquifer ranges from calcium bicarbonate to sodium bicarbonate types, and water from the Inyan Kara well is a calcium sulfate bicarbonate type. Of the 44 wells sampled, 28 (64 percent) tested positive for indicator bacteria in presumptive tests. Because these were single samples that generally were collected upstream from chemical treatment feeders, positive detections do not necessarily constitute exceedances of drinking-water standards. A single sample from an Arikaree well exceeded the MCL for arsenic of 50 µg/L. Arsenic exceeded 10 µg/L for six additional Arikaree wells and for the alluvial well and the Inyan Kara well, which could be problematic if the current MCL is lowered. The alluvial well also exceeded the secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) for dissolved solids, which is non-enforceable, and the action level for lead. The Inyan Kara well exceeded the SMCL's for iron and for manganese and the MCL of 5 pCi/L for radium-226 and 228 combined. Several Arikaree wells exceeded SMCL's for either pH, sulfate, dissolved solids, iron, or manganese. One Arikaree well exceeded the MCL of 4.0 mg/L for fluoride and another exceeded the MCL of 10 mg/L for nitrite plus nitrate. Ten Arikaree wells equalled or exceeded 15 pCi/L for gross alpha; however, these values do not necessarily constitute exceedances of the MCL, which excludes radioactivity contributed by uranium and radon. Additional sampling using different analysis techniques would be needed to conclusively determine if any samples exceeded this MCL. Eight wells, all from the Arikaree aquifer, equalled or exceeded the proposed MCL of 20 µg/L for uranium and 33 wells (75 percent) equalled or exceeded one-half of the proposed MCL. Although this standard has only been proposed, additional information regarding the extent of elevated uranium concentrations in the Arikaree aquifer, and the geochemical processes involved, may be beneficial. It was determined from analyses of uranium isotope data for five wells that the source of elevated uranium concentrations is naturally occurring, rather than anthropogenic.

South Dakota