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Fish entrainment rates through towboat propellers in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers

A specially designed net was used to study fish entrainment and injury through towboat propellers in 13 pools of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers. The net was attached to the stern of a 48.8‐m‐long towboat with twin propellers (in Kort propulsion nozzles), and sampling typically took place while the towboat pushed 15 loaded barges upstream at a time. In total, 254 entrainment samples over 894 km of the 13 study pools were collected. The sampling efforts produced 16,005 fish representing 15 families and at least 44 species; fish ranged in total length from 3 to 123 cm, but only 12.5‐cm or longer fish were analyzed because smaller fish could escape through the mesh of the trawl. Clupeidae (68% of total catch) and Sciaenidae (21%) were the dominant families. We detected no effects of towboat operation variables (speed and engine [i.e., propeller] revolutions per minute [RPM]) on entrainment rate (i.e., fish/km), but entrainment rate showed a wedge‐shaped distribution relative to hydraulic and geomorphic characteristics of the channel. Entrainment rate was low (<1 fish/km) in wide sections of the river, deep water, and swift current (or time periods characterized by faster flow); however, entrainment in narrow sections with shallow, slow water was highly variable and occasionally reached high levels (>30 fish/km). Although total entrainment rate was not related to engine RPM, the probability of being struck by a propeller increased with fish length and engine RPM. Limits on engine RPM in narrow, shallow, and sluggish reaches could reduce entrainment impact, particularly for large‐bodied fish.

Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

Understanding the influence of predation by introduced fishes on juvenile salmonids in the Columbia River Basin: Closing some knowledge gaps. Interim Report of Research 2010

Project overview Predation on juvenile salmonids by fish in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) has impacted salmon survival and is a topic that has received considerable attention over the last three decades. Some of the earliest and most detailed research focused on the food habits, consumption rates, abundance, and distribution of predaceous northern pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis , smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu , walleye Sander vitreus , and channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus in John Day Reservoir (Beamesderfer and Rieman 1991; Poe et al. 1991; Vigg et al. 1991). This group of researchers also estimated the loss of juvenile salmonids to predation by some of these predators (Rieman et al. 1991). Since this pioneering effort, others have evaluated various aspects of predation-related mortality on juvenile salmonids in the CRB, focusing mostly on northern pikeminnow and smallmouth bass (e.g., Tabor et al. 1993; Zimmerman 1999; Naughton et al. 2004). Perhaps the most significant finding coming from this body of research was that the native northern pikeminnow was the dominant predator of juvenile salmonids in the CRB. Indeed, Beamesderfer et al. (1996) estimated that northern pikeminnow consumed about 16 million (8%) of the estimated 200 million juvenile salmonids emigrating annually in the CRB, far surpassing the consumption of smallmouth bass, walleye, and channel catfish combined. Because of this, large-scale management fisheries (i.e., the northern pikeminnow management program, or NPMP; see Rieman and Beamesderfer 1990; Beamesderfer et al. 1996) have been implemented in the CRB since 1990 to achieve a 10%&ndash;20% exploitation rate on northern pikeminnow and reduce predation on juvenile salmonids. The NPMP has been a success, resulting in up to 38% potential reductions in predation (Friesen and Ward 1999; Knutsen and Ward 1999; Ward and Zimmerman 1999;). In contrast to the NPMP, Oregon and Washington state fish and wildlife agencies manage and enhance recreational fisheries for smallmouth bass and walleye by implementing size and harvest limit regulations. Recently, many biologists and fish managers have become concerned about the impact of non-native predaceous fishes on juvenile salmonid survival. For example, Poe et al. (1994) warned that smallmouth bass, walleye, and channel catfish were expanding their populations in some areas, that these fish could be significant predators on juvenile salmonids, and that they may compete with northern pikeminnow for common prey items, resulting in higher consumption rates of salmonids by the native predator. Sanderson et al. (2009) reported that the impact of non-indigenous species (including piscivorous fishes) on salmon survival within the CRB can be severe and suggested that managing nonindigenous species may be imperative for salmon recovery. Assessing the current ecological impacts of introduced fishes throughout the CRB will fill information gaps associated with their impact on salmonid survival and contribute to the description of CRB food webs. In response to these recent concerns about the potential predatory impact of non-native piscivores on salmon survival, the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority (CBFWA) co-hosted a workshop to address predation on juvenile salmonids in the CRB by non-native fish (Halton 2008). The purpose of the workshop was to review, evaluate, and develop strategies to reduce predation by non-native fishes on juvenile salmonids. In the end, discussion at the workshop and at subsequent meetings considered two potential ideas to reduce predation by non-native fish on juvenile salmonids; (1) understanding the role of juvenile American shad Alosa sapidissima in the diet of non-native predators in the fall; and (2) the effects of localized, intense reductions of smallmouth bass in areas of particularly high salmonid predation. In this report, we describe initial efforts to understand the influence of juvenile American shad as a prey item for introduced predators in the middle Columbia River. Our first objective, addressed in Chapter 1, was to evaluate the efficacy of nonlethal methods to describe the physiological condition of smallmouth bass, walleye, and channel catfish from late summer through late fall. Such information will be used to understand the contribution of juvenile American shad to the energy reserves of predaceous fish prior to winter. In Chapter 2, we describe the results of some limited sampling to document the food habits of smallmouth bass, walleye, and channel catfish in three reservoirs of the middle Columbia River during late fall. Collectively, we hope to increase our understanding of the contribution of juvenile American shad to the diets of introduced predators and the contribution of this diet to their energy reserves, growth, and perhaps over-winter survival. Managers should be able to use this information for deciding whether to control the population of American shad in the CRB or for managing introduced predaceous fish in the CRB.

Oregon, Washington↗

Contaminants in tropical island streams and their biota

Environmental contamination is problematic for tropical islands due to their typically dense human populations and competing land and water uses. The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico (USA) has a long history of anthropogenic chemical use, and its human population density is among the highest globally, providing a model environment to study contaminant impacts on tropical island stream ecosystems. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, historic-use chlorinated pesticides, current-use pesticides, Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), and metals (mercury, cadmium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and selenium) were quantified in the habitat and biota of Puerto Rico streams and assessed in relation to land-use patterns and toxicological thresholds. Water, sediment, and native fish and shrimp species were sampled in 13 rivers spanning broad watershed land-use characteristics during 2009–2010. Contrary to expectations, freshwater stream ecosystems in Puerto Rico were not severely polluted, likely due to frequent flushing flows and reduced deposition associated with recurring flood events. Notable exceptions of contamination were nickel in sediment within three agricultural watersheds (range 123–336 ppm dry weight) and organic contaminants (PCBs, organochlorine pesticides) and mercury in urban landscapes. At an urban site, PCBs i n several fish species (Mountain Mullet Agonostomus monticola [range 0.019–0.030 ppm wet weight] and American Eel Anguilla rostrata [0.019–0.031 ppm wet weight]) may pose human health hazards, with concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) consumption limit for 1 meal/month. American Eel at the urban site also contained dieldrin (range < detection-0.024 ppm wet weight) that exceeded the EPA maximum allowable consumption limit. The Bigmouth Sleeper Gobiomorous dormitor , an important piscivorus sport fish, accumulated low levels of organic contaminants in edible muscle tissue (due to its low lipid c ontent) and may be most suitable for human consumption island-wide; only mercury at one site (an urban location) exceeded EPA's consumption limit of 3 meals/month for this species. These results comprise the first comprehensive island-wide contaminant assessment of Puerto Rico streams and biota and provide natural resource and public health agencies here and in similar tropical islands elsewhere with information needed to guide ecosystem and fisheries conservation and management and human health risk assessment.

Environmental Research↗

The role of the North American Breeding Bird Survey in conservation

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was established in 1966 in response to a lack of quantitative data on changes in the populations of many bird species at a continental scale, especially songbirds. The BBS now provides the most reliable regional and continental trends and annual indices of abundance available for >500 bird species. This paper reviews some of the ways in which BBS data have contributed to bird conservation in North America over the past 50 yr, and highlights future program enhancement opportunities. BBS data have contributed to the listing of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act and, in a few cases, have informed species assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. By raising awareness of population changes, the BBS has helped to motivate bird conservation efforts through the creation of Partners in Flight. BBS data have been used to determine priority species and locations for conservation action at regional and national scales through Bird Conservation Region strategies and Joint Ventures. Data from the BBS have provided the quantitative foundation for North American State of the Birds reports, and have informed the public with regard to environmental health through multiple indicators, such as the Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Report on the Environment. BBS data have been analyzed with other data (e.g., environmental, land cover, and demographic) to evaluate potential drivers of population change, which have then informed conservation actions. In a few cases, BBS data have contributed to the evaluation of management actions, including informing the management of Mourning Doves ( Zenaida macroura ), Wood Ducks ( Aix sponsa ), and Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Improving geographic coverage in northern Canada and in Mexico, improving the analytical approaches required to integrate data from other sources and to address variation in detectability, and completing the database, by adding historical bird data at each point count location and pinpointing the current point count locations would further enhance the survey's value.

Condor↗

Effect of rotenone treatment on alpine stream invertebratecommunities in Colorado

Objective: Introduction of non-native salmonids to western United States streams has resulted in extirpation and even extinction of native cutthroat trout. Once thought to be extinct, a genetically verified population of Greenback Cutthroat Trout (GBCT) Oncorhynchus virginalis stomias was identified and used for population re-establishment efforts. To restore native trout habitat, stream reaches above a dispersal barrier are typically treated with a piscicide (i.e., rotenone) to remove non-native trout before reintroduction of natives. One concern with this method is the possible impact to non-target invertebrates, which are an important food source for trout, and a drastic disturbance to invertebrates following rotenone treatment could negatively affect native trout establishment. Methods: Two alpine streams were treated with liquid rotenone via drip stations during two consecutive days. Invertebrate communities were sampled for six years in two streams where GBCT was reintroduced. Pre- and posttreatment sampling allowed for examination of short-term, intermediate, and long-term responses to invertebrate communities. Results: Negative short-term responses were detected for total taxa richness, EPT richness, and percent Heptageniidae density immediately following rotenone application. However, most community metrics returned to pretreatment values within 1 to 2 years posttreatment. Invertebrate community changes between pretreatment and 3 to 5 years posttreatment were observed with increased percent Chironomidae density and decreased percent EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) density. Conclusion: This study provides insight into invertebrate community response to rotenone treatment in high alpine streams and adds to the current literature which displays short-term declines in invertebrates following rotenone and recovery of most aspects of the initial invertebrate community within one year posttreatment. Lay Summary Rotenone application for cutthroat trout habitat restoration negatively affected invertebrate communities in the 1 to 2 months following treatment; however, most community values recovered to pretreatment levels within 1 to 2 years. Keywords: native fish, cutthroat trout, fish management, invertebrate community, habitat restoration

Colorado↗

Relative abundance and lengths of Kendall Warm Springs dace captured from different habitats in a specially designed trap

A trap was designed to capture endangered Kendall Warm Springs dace Rhinichthys osculus thermalis (a subspecies of speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus ) without being destructive to the habitat of the fish in Kendall Warm Springs Creek, Wyoming. Four experiments were conducted to determine differences in catch per unit effort (CPUE) and length frequencies of fish among differing habitat types. The CPUE was highest in channel habitats with current, and one experiment indicated that it was particularly high at vertical interfaces with vegetation. Longer fish were captured in channel habitats away from vegetation than in vegetated areas. The CPUE was significantly greater during the day than at night during one experiment, but no significant differences were observed among the other three experiments. The traps were easy and inexpensive to construct, could be used in a variety of stream habitats, and may have applications in other small streams for sampling small, benthic fishes.

Wyoming↗

Conservation status of the American horseshoe crab, (Limulus polyphemus): A regional assessment

Horseshoe crabs have persisted for more than 200 million years, and fossil forms date to 450 million years ago. The American horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ), one of four extant horseshoe crab species, is found along the Atlantic coastline of North America ranging from Alabama to Maine, USA with another distinct population on the coasts of Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo in the Yucatán Peninsula, México. Although the American horseshoe crab tolerates broad environmental conditions, exploitation and habitat loss threaten the species. We assessed the conservation status of the American horseshoe crab by comprehensively reviewing available scientific information on its range, life history, genetic structure, population trends and analyses, major threats, and conservation. We structured the status assessment by six genetically-informed regions and accounted for sub-regional differences in environmental conditions, threats, and management. The transnational regions are Gulf of Maine (USA), Mid-Atlantic (USA), Southeast (USA), Florida Atlantic (USA), Northeast Gulf of México (USA), and Yucatán Peninsula (México). Our conclusion is that the American horseshoe crab species is vulnerable to local extirpation and that the degree and extent of risk vary among and within the regions. The risk is elevated in the Gulf of Maine region due to limited and fragmented habitat. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Mid-Atlantic region are stable in the Delaware Bay area, and regulatory controls are in place, but the risk is elevated in the New England area as evidenced by continuing declines understood to be caused by over-harvest. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Southeast region are stable or increasing. The populations of horseshoe crabs in the Florida Atlantic region show mixed trends among areas, and continuing population reductions at the embayment level have poorly understood causes. Within the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, causes of population trends are poorly understood and currently there is no active management of horseshoe crabs. Horseshoe crabs within México have conservation protection based on limited and fragmented habitat and geographic isolation from other regions, but elevated risk applies to the horseshoe crabs in the Yucatán Peninsula region until sufficient data can confirm population stability. Future species status throughout its range will depend on the effectiveness of conservation to mitigate habitat loss and manage for sustainable harvest among and within regions.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

Ambiguities in using telomere length for age determination in two North American bat species

The age of an animal, determined by time (chronological age) as well as genetic and environmental factors (biological age), influences the likelihood of mortality and reproduction and thus the animal’s contribution to population growth. For many long-lived species, such as bats, a lack of external and morphological indicators has made determining age a challenge, leading researchers to examine genetic markers of age for application to demographic studies. One widely studied biomarker of age is telomere length, which has been related both to chronological and biological age across taxa, but only recently has begun to be studied in bats. We assessed telomere length from the DNA of known-age and minimum known-age individuals of two bat species using a quantitative PCR assay. We determined that telomere length was quadratically related to chronological age in big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), although it had little predictive power for accurate age determination of unknown-age individuals. The relationship was different in little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), where telomere length instead was correlated with biological age, apparently due to infection and wing damage associated with white-nose syndrome. Furthermore, we showed that wing biopsies currently are a better tissue source for studying telomere length in bats than guano and buccal swabs; the results from the latter group were more variable and potentially influenced by storage time. Refinement of collection and assessment methods for different non-lethally collected tissues will be important for longitudinal sampling to better understand telomere dynamics in these long-lived species. Although further work is needed to develop a biomarker capable of determining chronological age in bats, our results suggest that biological age, as reflected in telomere length, may be influenced by extrinsic stressors such as disease.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

Vegetation dynamics under fire exclusion and logging in a Rocky Mountain watershed, 1856-1996

How have changes in land management practices affected vegetation patterns in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem? This question led us to develop a deterministic, successional, vegetation model to “turn back the clock” on a study area and assess how patterns in vegetation cover type and structure have changed through different periods of management. Our modeling spanned the closing decades of use by Native Americans, subsequent Euro-American settlement, and associated indirect methods of fire suppression, and more recent practices of fire exclusion and timber harvest. Model results were striking, indicating that the primary forest dynamic in the study area is not fragmentation of conifer forest by logging, but the transition from a fire-driven mosaic of grassland, shrubland, broadleaf forest, and mixed forest communities to a conifer-dominated landscape. Projections for conifer-dominated stands showed an increase in areal coverage from 15% of the study area in the mid-1800s to ∼50% by the mid-1990s. During the same period, projections for aspen-dominated stands showed a decline in coverage from 37% to 8%. Substantial acreage previously occupied by a variety of age classes has given way to extensive tracts of mature forest. Only 4% of the study area is currently covered by young stands, all of which are coniferous. While logging has replaced wildfire as a mechanism for cycling younger stands into the landscape, the locations, species constituents, patch sizes, and ecosystem dynamics associated with logging do not mimic those associated with fire. It is also apparent that the nature of these differences varies among biophysical settings, and that land managers might consider a biophysical class strategy for tailoring management goals and restoration efforts.

Ecological Applications↗

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002&ndash;2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Biological Conservation↗

A look at the Hudson River estuary

This paper provides background information on the effect of tide waves upon the movement of water in the Hudson River estuary. Computations based on records from three continuous stage recorders and current-meter discharge measurements made throughout a tidal cycle show that peak discharge rates in the estuary at Poughkeepsie may be as great as 500,000 cubic feet per second and that total daily tidal volumes as great as 20 billion cubic feet move in the estuary. Computation of water movement in the estuary requires precise field data and continued efforts are needed to perfect the data-collection system and the computation procedure in order to adequately define water movement in the Hudson estuary.

New York↗

Relative toxicity of suspension and oil formulations of DDT to native fishes in Back Creek, West Virginia

On July 23, 1947, a 1‐mile section of Back Creek, treated the previous year with a DDT suspension with little damage to fish, was re‐treated with an oil spray at the same rate (1 pound per acre). The oil spray killed about six times as many fish as the suspension formula. Fish began dying within 3 to 4 hours after treatment, whereas several days elapsed before mortality began with the suspension formula in 1946. In addition to larger numbers of the minnow species, some adult game fish were killed. Losses of fish were not as great below the sprayed section as when a suspension formula was used, probably because a good part of the DDT was drifted ashore by breezes or by water currents. Some species of fish such as bluntnose minnows (Hyborhynchus notatus), chub suckers (Erimyzon oblongus), and pickerel (Esox niger), although numerous, were relatively unaffected. Considerable mortality of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) occurred in liveboxes placed in the sprayed section, particularly at the lower stations. Largemouth bass nearly 4 inches long survived at a station where 54.0 percent of the 2‐inch bass were killed. This fact supplied some positive evidence that fish of larger size are better able to withstand DDT.

West Virginia↗

Spatial distribution of API gravity and gas/oil ratios for petroleum accumulations in Upper Cretaceous strata of the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations of the south Texas Maverick Basin—Implications for petroleum migration and charge history

The Maverick Basin of south Texas is currently undergoing active exploration and production of gas and oil from tight sandstone reservoirs. The most productive tight sandstones in the basin are in the Upper Cretaceous San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations. These units are second only to the Eagle Ford Shale in terms of cumulative production volumes. The structural history of the Maverick Basin, from rifting to subsidence to exhumation, has had a profound effect on the characteristics of these reservoirs and the petroleum resources contained therein. This U.S. Geological Survey review of the production history of these strata reflects a recent shift from conventional production to horizontal drilling (unconventional) that exploits low permeability reservoirs in previously overlooked areas of existing oil and gas fields in southern Texas, typically outside of established field boundaries. To investigate the physical properties of the Maverick Basin hydrocarbon accumulations, this case study compiled American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity measurements and calculated cumulative gas/oil ratios (GOR) for thousands of producing wells from the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations. Maps were generated from the compiled well production data to show the spatial heterogeneity of API gravity and GOR values for the three formations within the Maverick Basin and immediately outside the basin to the northeast. Within the Maverick Basin, the spatial patterns of API gravity values indicate lighter oils downdip towards the southern basin edge. GOR values indicative of wet and dry gases within the basin are seen interspersed, with values that correspond to black and heavy oils. Differences in the spatial patterns of the petroleum properties within the Maverick Basin are interpreted as effects of Eocene basin inversion caused by Laramide orogenic deformation, and the resulting reservoir exhumation of basin strata. East of the Maverick Basin, spatial distributions of API gravity and GOR values show progressively heavier oils updip to the northwest, grading to dry gases downdip to the southeast, which correlates to the oil and gas windows of the underlying Eagle Ford Shale. Correlation of API gravity and GOR values from the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations with thermal maturity data from the Eagle Ford Shale suggests that the Eagle Ford Shale is the petroleum source, and that petroleum migration was approximately vertical for areas to the east of the Maverick Basin. The discontinuity of API gravity and GOR properties within the Maverick Basin implies a complex petroleum charge history, possibly involving the remigration of petroleum and the addition of petroleum from other source intervals in Mexico, to the southwest. Depressurization of exhumed, overpressured reservoirs of the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations can explain the intermittent occurrence of gas production throughout the southern Maverick Basin by exsolution of gas from formation brines and the resulting dry gas flushing of hydrocarbon-charged reservoirs. The introduction of dry gas through flushing can, in turn, explain why the patterns of API gravity and GOR values are so dissimilar in the Maverick Basin. This process has implications for possible future production of unconventional resources from undiscovered tight-gas reservoirs in strata of the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations, and a different approach to petroleum exploration may be needed in the Maverick Basin relative to exploration techniques applied in other basins within the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Texas↗

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data that can be used in complex, multiscale analyses of population change, while controlling for scale‐specific nuisance factors. Many alternative models can be fit to the data, but most model selection procedures are not appropriate for hierarchical models. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation (LOOCV), in which relative model fit is assessed by omitting an observation and assessing the prediction of a model fit using the remainder of the data, provides a reasonable approach for assessing models, but is time consuming and not feasible to apply for all observations in large data sets. We report the first large‐scale formal model selection for BBS data, applying LOOCV to stratified random samples of observations from BBS data. Our results are for 548 species of North American birds, comparing the fit of four alternative models that differ in year effect structures and in descriptions of extra‐Poisson overdispersion. We use a hierarchical model among species to evaluate posterior probabilities that models are best for individual species. Models in which differences in year effects are conditionally independent (D models) were generally favored over models in which year effects are modeled by a slope parameter and a random year effect (S models), and models in which extra‐Poisson overdispersion effects are independent and t ‐distributed (H models) tended to be favored over models where overdispersion was independent and normally distributed. Our conclusions lead us to recommend a change from the conventional S model to D and H models for the vast majority of species (544/548). Comparison of estimated population trends based on the favored model relative to the S model currently used for BBS summaries indicates no consistent differences in estimated trends. Of the 18 species that showed large differences in estimated trends between models, estimated trends from the default S model were more extreme, reflecting the influence of the slope parameter in that model for species that are undergoing large population changes. WAIC, a computationally simpler alternative to LOOCV, does not appear to be a reliable alternative to LOOCV.

Ecological Applications↗

Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models

An ensemble of rule-based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large-scale influences on stability with several reduced-complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two-parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley-scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large-scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley-scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.

Alaska↗

Fire and aquatic ecosystems in forested biomes of North America

Synthesis of the literature suggests that physical, chemical, and biological elements of a watershed interact with long‐term climate to influence fire regime, and that these factors, in concordance with the postfire vegetation mosaic, combine with local‐scale weather to govern the trajectory and magnitude of change following a fire event. Perturbation associated with hydrological processes is probably the primary factor influencing postfire persistence of fishes, benthic macroinvertebrates, and diatoms in fluvial systems. It is apparent that salmonids have evolved strategies to survive perturbations occurring at the frequency of wildland fires (10°–10 2 years), but local populations of a species may be more ephemeral. Habitat alteration probably has the greatest impact on individual organisms and local populations that are the least mobile, and reinvasion will be most rapid by aquatic organisms with high mobility. It is becoming increasingly apparent that during the past century fire suppression has altered fire regimes in some vegetation types, and consequently, the probability of large stand‐replacing fires has increased in those areas. Current evidence suggests, however, that even in the case of extensive high‐severity fires, local extirpation of fishes is patchy, and recolonization is rapid. Lasting detrimental effects on fish populations have been limited to areas where native populations have declined and become increasingly isolated because of anthropogenic activities. A strategy of protecting robust aquatic communities and restoring aquatic habitat structure and life history complexity in degraded areas may be the most effective means for insuring the persistence of native biota where the probability of large‐scale fires has increased.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

Integrating hunter dynamics and waterfowl dynamics to inform harvest management

The successful conservation and management of North American waterfowl relies upon an adaptive harvest management framework that accounts for changes in the system state and critical uncertainties related to the dynamics of waterfowl populations and habitats. Increasing recognition of the importance of the human dimensions of the harvest process, particularly those related to hunters, has motivated calls for the integration of social objectives into waterfowl conservation programs and decision making. We introduce a framework for modeling the dynamics of hunter populations and behavior alongside those of waterfowl populations. Using Bayesian estimation, we fit a dynamic state space model to observational data from the Mid-Continent mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) system over a 20-year period and estimated parameter values for the relative effects of a set of hypothesized drivers of hunter recruitment, retention, reactivation, participation, and success rates. We then made projections across 3 future scenarios to examine the continuation of current trends, the potential effects of a shift to a moderate regulatory framework as informed by expert elicitation, and increased hunter recruitment to maintain a stable hunter population. We found that a theoretical stable state exists for Mid-Continent mallard and hunter populations but that the influence of broader sociocultural shifts and increasing hunter mortality from an aging base pose significant challenges for efforts to stabilize the ongoing decline of active hunter numbers, even under favorable regulatory conditions. This modeling framework and results from it can be used to inform decision processes in the management of game populations that seek to include social objectives and assess the potential trade-offs of prioritizing across social and ecological objectives. We emphasize the need for focused human dimensions expertise throughout the process of fully integrating goals for waterfowl populations, habitats, and people in waterfowl conservation.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗