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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Geomorphic controls on floodplain connectivity, ecosystem services, and sensitivity to climate change: An example from the lower Missouri River

Floodplains of large rivers are exploited for agricultural production, industrial and municipal development, and transportation infrastructure. Recently, increased frequency of costly floods has prompted consideration of whether offsetting benefits might accrue from management of floodplains for ecosystem services. We employed a simple inundation model for 800 km of the Lower Missouri River, USA, to evaluate spatial and temporal distributions of ecological floodplain inundation metrics and how those distributions might vary with levee removal and climatic change. The model evaluates inundation at 30 × 30 m resolution on a daily basis over 82 years of record. We quantified provisioning of waterfowl habitat and potential denitrification. Spatial variability is affected by ongoing geomorphic adjustments that affect floodplain connectivity. Statistical models indicate that available floodplain area and recent aggradation are predictive of most inundation metrics. Connectivity is sensitive to climate-change scenarios that predict increased floodplain inundation during spring waterfowl migrations; the greatest sensitivity to future climate exists where channel-floodplain geomorphology presently enhances floodplain connectivity. Evaluation of floodplain denitrification indicates that on average, the nonleveed part of the floodplain could denitrify 0.05%–1.7% of the mean annual nitrogen load of the river. Levee removal could increase this rate to only 3.6% of the nitrogen load. The capacity of floodplain connectivity to influence certain ecosystem services is highly variable in space along the Lower Missouri River and may be appreciably influenced by climate change. Hence, decisions to optimize management of large-river floodplains are likely to be highly location dependent.

Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, South ↗

USGS2024

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2006

Phosphorus amendment reduces hepatic and renal oxidative stress in mallards ingesting lead-contaminated sediments

Lead poisoning of waterfowl has been reported for decades in the Coeur d'Alene River Basin (CDARB) in Idaho as a result of the ingestion of lead-contaminated sediments. This study was conducted to determine whether the addition of phosphoric acid to CDARB sediments would reduce the bioavailability and toxicity of lead to the liver and kidney of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Mallards received diets containing 12% clean sediment (controls) or 12% sediment from three different CDARB sites containing 4520, 5390, or 6990 ug/g lead (dry weight) with or without phosphoric acid amendment. Liver and kidney lead concentrations were significantly higher in all CDARB treatment groups and ranged from geometric mean values of 18.2 (liver) and 28.7 (kidney) for the first 2 sites to 22.5 (liver) and 45.6 (kidney) ug/g (wet weight) for the third site. With amendments all liver lead concentrations were reduced 36 to 55%, and all kidney lead concentrations were lowered 54 to 73%. Unamended CDARB sediment from the third site resulted in the following hepatic effects: over 1.6-fold elevation of liver glutathione (reduced form; GSH) concentration, higher GSH S-transferase and oxidized glutathione (GSSG) reductase activities, and lower protein-bound thiols (PBSH) concentration. Renal effects included higher kidney GSH concentrations for all CDARB sites, with over 2.1-fold higher for the third site. Resulting kidney GSSG to GSH ratios were lower at two sites. At the third site, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activity was elevated, and lipid peroxidation as thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS) was 1.7-fold greater. Amendment restored all hepatic variables as well as the renal variables TBARS and GGT so they did not differ from controls. Although amendments of phosphorus substantially reduced the bioavailability of lead and some of the adverse effects, lead concentrations in the tissues of mallards fed the amended sediments were still above those considered to be harmful to waterfowl under the present conditions.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗

USGS2008

Experience preferences as mediators of the wildlife related recreation participation: Place attachment relationship

The human dimensions literature challenges the notion that settings are simply features and attributes that can be manipulated to satisfy public demand; instead, people view specific recreation settings as unique kinds of places. Land managers provide recreation experience opportunities, but most conventional management frameworks do not allow managers to address the personal attachment of people to places. This study examined the relationships among activity participation, recreation experience preferences (REP), and setting and place attachment. Study data was obtained from a visitor study conducted in 2000-2001 at U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Waterfowl Production Areas in Minnesota. We used structural equation modeling to explore whether recreation experience preferences mediate the relationship between types and frequencies of recreation participation and place attachment at Minnesota's Waterfowl Production Areas. Results offer empirical evidence that recreational experience preferences associated with activity participation may be instrumental to one's development of place attachment to a recreation site. Thus, research in these two areas may be more complementary than has been apparent in the literature. Copyright ?? Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife↗

USGS2017

How hunter perceptions of wildlife regulations, agency trust, and satisfaction affect attitudes about duck bag limits

This study explored how factors, including the function of bag limits, agency trust, satisfaction, hunting participation, and demographics, related to opinions about duck bag limits. The results are from a survey of 2014 Minnesota resident waterfowl hunters. Analyses identified four dimensions of attitudes about functions of bag limits, including that they: (a) are descriptive in defining the acceptable number of ducks that can be bagged, (b) are injunctive in establishing how many ducks should be allowed to be bagged, (c) ensure fair opportunities for all hunters to bag ducks, and (d) reflect biological limitations to protect waterfowl populations. Descriptive and fairness functions of bag limits were related to opinions about bag limits, as were factors related to agency trust, satisfaction, ducks bagged, experience with more restrictive bag limits, hunter age, and hunting group membership. Agencies may increase support by building trust and emphasizing the descriptive and fairness functions of regulations.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife↗

USGS2011

Relationship between oxidative stress, pathology, and behavioral signs of lead poisoning in mallards

Some of the adverse effects of lead (Pb) may be associated with oxidative damage of lipids, proteins, or DNA. In a previous study a linkage was observed between the susceptibilities of waterfowl species to Pb poisoning with oxidative stress . To investigate this relationship among the individuals of a single species, for 3 wk 4 groups of 72 mallards were fed diets containing high or low levels of vitamin E (20 or 220 Ul/kg) and high or low levels of Pb (0 or 2 g/kg). During the first week of Pb exposure, mallards developed hemolytic anemia, and during the second week, signs of neurological impairment. Histological findings in the Pb-exposed mallards were hemosiderosis, demyelinization of sciatic and brachial nerves, and tumefaction of renal tubular epithelium with the presence of intranuclear inclusion bodies. Lipid peroxidation increased with Pb exposure in blood, liver, bile, and brain, but decreased in nerves. Glutathione (GSH) increased with Pb exposure in liver and bile, and its oxidized/reduced ratio only increased in bile. Pb exposure inhibited GSH peroxidase activity (GPX) in plasma, liver, and brain, and decreased protein thiols (PSH) in blood and liver. Vitamin E resulted in significantly lower lipid peroxidation in nerves of control birds relative to unsupplemented controls, but did not alleviate any sign of lead posioning. Pb-induced pathological changes associated with hepatic and nervous functions were significantly correlated with lower GPX activity and PSH concentrations in these tissues rather than lipid peroxidation. Data suggest that inhibition of antioxidant enzymes and interaction with sulfhydryl groups of proteins may play a more important role in Pb poisoning of waterfowl than lipid peroxidation.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗

USGS2012

Cross-seasonal patterns of avian influenza virus in breeding and wintering migratory birds: a flyway perspective

The spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in nature is intrinsically linked with the movements of wild birds. Wild birds are the reservoirs for the virus and their migration may facilitate the circulation of AIV between breeding and wintering areas. This cycle of dispersal has become widely accepted; however, there are few AIV studies that present cross-seasonal information. A flyway perspective is critical for understanding how wild birds contribute to the persistence of AIV over large spatial and temporal scales, with implications for how to focus surveillance efforts and identify risks to public health. This study characterized spatio-temporal infection patterns in 10,389 waterfowl at two important locations within the Pacific Flyway--breeding sites in Interior Alaska and wintering sites in California's Central Valley during 2007-2009. Among the dabbling ducks sampled, the northern shoveler (Anas clypeata) had the highest prevalence of AIV at both breeding (32.2%) and wintering (5.2%) locations. This is in contrast to surveillance studies conducted in other flyways that have identified the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and northern pintail (Anas acuta) as hosts with the highest prevalence. A higher diversity of AIV subtypes was apparent at wintering (n=42) compared with breeding sites (n=17), with evidence of mixed infections at both locations. Our study suggests that wintering sites may act as an important mixing bowl for transmission among waterfowl in a flyway, creating opportunities for the reassortment of the virus. Our findings shed light on how the dynamics of AIV infection of wild bird populations can vary between the two ends of a migratory flyway.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases↗

USGS2012

Behavioral vs. molecular sources of conflict between nuclear and mitochondrial DNA: The role of male-biased dispersal in a Holarctic sea duck

Genetic studies of waterfowl (Anatidae) have observed the full spectrum of mitochondrial (mt) DNA population divergence, from apparent panmixia to deep, reciprocally monophyletic lineages. Yet, these studies often found weak or no nuclear (nu) DNA structure, which was often attributed to male-biased gene flow, a common behaviour within this family. An alternative explanation for this ‘conflict’ is that the smaller effective population size and faster sorting rate of mtDNA relative to nuDNA lead to different signals of population structure. We tested these alternatives by sequencing 12 nuDNA introns for a Holarctic pair of waterfowl subspecies, the European goosander ( Mergus merganser merganser ) and the North American common merganser ( M. m. americanus ), which exhibit strong population structure in mtDNA. We inferred effective population sizes, gene flow and divergence times from published mtDNA sequences and simulated expected differentiation for nuDNA based on those histories. Between Europe and North America, nuDNA Ф ST was 3.4-fold lower than mtDNA Ф ST , a result consistent with differences in sorting rates. However, despite geographically structured and monophyletic mtDNA lineages within continents, nuDNA Ф ST values were generally zero and significantly lower than predicted. This between- and within-continent contrast held when comparing mtDNA and nuDNA among published studies of ducks. Thus, male-mediated gene flow is a better explanation than slower sorting rates for limited nuDNA differentiation within continents, which is also supported by nonmolecular data. This study illustrates the value of quantitatively testing discrepancies between mtDNA and nuDNA to reject the null hypothesis that conflict simply reflects different sorting rates.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2014

Adaptive nest clustering and density-dependent nest survival in dabbling ducks

Density-dependent population regulation is observed in many taxa, and understanding the mechanisms that generate density dependence is especially important for the conservation of heavily-managed species. In one such system, North American waterfowl, density dependence is often observed at continental scales, and nest predation has long been implicated as a key factor driving this pattern. However, despite extensive research on this topic, it remains unclear if and how nest density influences predation rates. Part of this confusion may have arisen because previous studies have studied density-dependent predation at relatively large spatial and temporal scales. Because the spatial distribution of nests changes throughout the season, which potentially influences predator behavior, nest survival may vary through time at relatively small spatial scales. As such, density-dependent nest predation might be more detectable at a spatially- and temporally-refined scale and this may provide new insights into nest site selection and predator foraging behavior. Here, we used three years of data on nest survival of two species of waterfowl, mallards and gadwall, to more fully explore the relationship between local nest clustering and nest survival. Throughout the season, we found that the distribution of nests was consistently clustered at small spatial scales (˜50–400 m), especially for mallard nests, and that this pattern was robust to yearly variation in nest density and the intensity of predation. We demonstrated further that local nest clustering had positive fitness consequences – nests with closer nearest neighbors were more likely to be successful, a result that is counter to the general assumption that nest predation rates increase with nest density.

California↗

USGS2016

A full annual cycle modeling framework for American black ducks

American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density-dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.

Natural Resource Modeling↗

USGS2016

Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

Science↗

USGS2015

Intercontinental spread of asian-origin H5N8 to North America through Beringia by migratory birds

Phylogenetic network analysis and understanding of waterfowl migration patterns suggest the Eurasian H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 avian influenza virus emerged in late 2013 in China, spread in early 2014 to South Korea and Japan, and reached Siberia and Beringia by summer 2014 via migratory birds. Three genetically distinct subgroups emerged and subsequently spread along different flyways during fall 2014 into Europe, North America, and East Asia, respectively. All three subgroups reappeared in Japan, a wintering site for waterfowl from Eurasia and parts of North America.

Journal of Virology↗

USGS2014

Prevalence, transmission, and genetic diversity of blood parasites infecting tundra-nesting geese in Alaska

A total of 842 blood samples collected from five species of tundra-nesting geese in Alaska was screened for haemosporidian parasites using molecular techniques. Parasites of the genera Leucocytozoon Danilewsky, 1890, Haemoproteus Kruse, 1890, and Plasmodium Marchiafava and Celli, 1885 were detected in 169 (20%), 3 (<1%), and 0 (0%) samples, respectively. Occupancy modeling was used to estimate prevalence of Leucocytozoon parasites and assess variation relative to species, age, sex, geographic area, year, and decade. Species, age, and decade were identified as important in explaining differences in prevalence of Leucocytozoon parasites. Leucocytozoon parasites were detected in goslings sampled along the Arctic Coastal Plain using both historic and contemporary samples, which provided support for transmission in the North American Arctic. In contrast, lack of detection of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium parasites in goslings ( n = 238) provided evidence to suggest that the transmission of parasites of these genera may not occur among waterfowl using tundra habitats in Alaska, or alternatively, may only occur at low levels. Five haemosporidian genetic lineages shared among different species of geese sampled from two geographic areas were indicative of interspecies parasite transmission and supported broad parasite or vector distributions. However, identical Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus lineages on public databases were limited to waterfowl hosts suggesting constraints in the range of parasite hosts.

Alaska↗

USGS1994

Body composition dynamics of ruddy ducks during wing moult

A method was developed for indexing moulting costs in waterfowl based on intensity of moult and proportional mass of feathers in seven feather regions (ADJMOLT). This method was then applied to an examination of relations between moulting costs and size-adjusted body mass and composition of postbreeding male and female ruddy ducks ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) collected in southwestern Manitoba, 30 July – 24 August 1985. Moderate to heavy moult (25 to > 50% of moulting feathers) was recorded in all feather regions. The intensity of down moult was greater in males than in females, but no differences between sexes in moult score by contour feather region, overall mean moult score, or ADJMOLT were detected. Relations between ADJMOLT and body fat (FAT), liver protein (LIVER), and size-adjusted body mass (ADJMASS), body protein (ADJPROT), and leg and breast muscle protein (ADJLEG and ADJBR, respectively) were not influenced by sex, but there was a sex effect on the relation of ADJMOLT to gizzard mass (GIZZWT). ADJPROT and ADJBR were negatively associated with ADJMOLT, whereas female GIZZWT was positively related to ADJMOLT. ADJMASS, ADJLEG, FAT, and LIVER were unrelated to ADJMOLT. Female ruddy ducks were structurally smaller and had less ADJMASS, ADJPROT, ADJLEG, and FAT than males, but there were no sex-related differences in ADJBR. I found no evidence of nutritional stress in post-breeding ruddy ducks, but argue that stress associated with moult in waterfowl is most likely to occur in females, especially small-bodied species that are primarily herbivorous.

Southwest Manitoba↗

USGS2009

Lead in the environment

Anthropogenic uses of lead have probably altered its availability and environmental distribution more than any other toxic element. Consequently, lead concentrations in many living organisms may be approaching thresholds of toxicity for the adverse effects of lead. Such thresholds are difficult to define, as they vary with the chemical and physical form of lead, exposure regime, other elements present and also vary both within and between species. The technological capability to accurately quantify low lead concentrations has increased over the last decade, and physiological and behavioral effects have been measured in wildlife with tissue lead concentrations below those previously considered safe for humans.s.236 Consequently. lead criteria for the protection of wildlife and human health are frequently under review, and 'thresholds' of lead toxicity are being reconsidered. Proposed lead criteria for the protection of natural resources have been reviewed by Eisler. Uptake of lead by plants is limited by its generally low availability in soils and sediments, and toxicity may be limited by storage mechanisms and its apparently limited translocation within most plants. Lead does not generally accumulate within the foliar parts of plants, which limits its transfer to higher trophic levels. Although lead may concentrate in plant and animal tissues, no evidence of biomagnification exists. Acid deposition onto surface waters and soils with low buffering capacity may influence the availability of lead for uptake by plants and animals, and this may merit investigation at susceptible sites. The biological significance of chronic low-level lead exposure to wildlife is sometimes difficult to quantify. Animals living in urban environments or near point sources of lead emission are inevitably subject to greater exposure to lead and enhanced risk of lead poisoning. Increasingly strict controls on lead emissions in many countries have reduced exposure to lead from some sources. and the .reduction of lead in gasoline has resulted in lower tissue lead concentrations in humans and wildlife from many, particularly urban, locations. However, it has been suggested that increasing use of organic lead compounds as catalysts for the production of plastics and as wood preservatives and biocides could adversely affect wildlife. The most significant source of direct wildlife mortality from lead is spent gunshot and fishing sinkers. Elevated mortality from shot ingestion in avian species resulted in the introduction of nontoxic (steel) shot zones along certain flyways in the United States in the mid-1970s and a total ban on the use of lead for waterfowl and coot hunting nationwide by 1992. Several other countries are now following suit and have either banned or are in the process of restricting the use of lead shot for waterfowl hunting. In the United States it has been estimated that since the 1986 hunting season. when the use of nontoxic shot became widespread. over 6 million ducks have not been lost to lead poisoning. Raptors, especially eagles, have also apparently benefited. although lead poisoning from ingestion of bullet fragments remains a problem for the critically threatened California condor. Quantifying reductions in lead mortality rates would be difficult since eagle populations throughout North America are rapidly recovering from other anthropogenic perturbations, especially organochlorine pesticides.

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

Quantitative and qualitative approaches to identifying migration chronology in a continental migrant

The degree to which extrinsic factors influence migration chronology in North American waterfowl has not been quantified, particularly for dabbling ducks. Previous studies have examined waterfowl migration using various methods, however, quantitative approaches to define avian migration chronology over broad spatio-temporal scales are limited, and the implications for using different approaches have not been assessed. We used movement data from 19 female adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) equipped with solar-powered global positioning system satellite transmitters to evaluate two individual level approaches for quantifying migration chronology. The first approach defined migration based on individual movements among geopolitical boundaries (state, provincial, international), whereas the second method modeled net displacement as a function of time using nonlinear models. Differences in migration chronologies identified by each of the approaches were examined with analysis of variance. The geopolitical method identified mean autumn migration midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 13 November 2011, whereas the net displacement method identified midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 14 November 2011. The mean midpoints for spring migration were 3 April 2011 and 20 March 2012 using the geopolitical method and 31 March 2011 and 22 March 2012 using the net displacement method. The duration, initiation date, midpoint, and termination date for both autumn and spring migration did not differ between the two individual level approaches. Although we did not detect differences in migration parameters between the different approaches, the net displacement metric offers broad potential to address questions in movement ecology for migrating species. Ultimately, an objective definition of migration chronology will allow researchers to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the extrinsic factors that drive migration at the individual and population levels. As a result, targeted conservation plans can be developed to support planning for habitat management and evaluation of long-term climate effects.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

North Atlantic migratory bird flyways provide routes for intercontinental movement of avian influenza viruses

Avian influenza virus (AIV) in wild birds has been of increasing interest over the last decade due to the emergence of AIVs that cause significant disease and mortality in both poultry and humans. While research clearly demonstrates that AIVs can move across the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean, there has been no data to support the mechanism of how this occurs. In spring and autumn of 2010 and autumn of 2011 we obtained cloacal swab samples from 1078 waterfowl, gulls, and shorebirds of various species in southwest and west Iceland and tested them for AIV. From these, we isolated and fully sequenced the genomes of 29 AIVs from wild caught gulls (Charadriiformes) and waterfowl (Anseriformes) in Iceland. We detected viruses that were entirely (8 of 8 genomic segments) of American lineage, viruses that were entirely of Eurasian lineage, and viruses with mixed American-Eurasian lineage. Prior to this work only 2 AIVs had been reported from wild birds in Iceland and only the sequence from one segment was available in GenBank. This is the first report of finding AIVs of entirely American lineage and Eurasian lineage, as well as reassortant viruses, together in the same geographic location. Our study demonstrates the importance of the North Atlantic as a corridor for the movement of AIVs between Europe and North America.

North Atlantic↗

USGS2011

Spatial distribution and risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions.

PLoS Pathogens↗