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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

Influence of groundwater recharge and well characteristics on dissolved arsenic concentrations in southeastern Michigan groundwater

Arsenic concentrations exceeding 10 ??g/l, the United States maximum contaminant level and the World Health Organization guideline value, are frequently reported in groundwater from bedrock and unconsolidated aquifers of southeastern Michigan. Although arsenic-bearing minerals (including arsenian pyrite and oxide/hydroxide phases) have been identified in Marshall Sandstone bedrock of the Mississippian aquifer system and in tills of the unconsolidated aquifer system, mechanisms responsible for arsenic mobilization and subsequent transport in groundwater are equivocal. Recent evidence has begun to suggest that groundwater recharge and characteristics of well construction may affect arsenic mobilization and transport. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between dissolved arsenic concentrations, reported groundwater recharge rates, well construction characteristics, and geology in unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers. Results of multiple linear regression analyses indicate that arsenic contamination is more prevalent in bedrock wells that are cased in proximity to the bedrock-unconsolidated interface; no other factors were associated with arsenic contamination in water drawn from bedrock or unconsolidated aquifers. Conditions appropriate for arsenic mobilization may be found along the bedrock-unconsolidated interface, including changes in reduction/oxidation potential and enhanced biogeochemical activity because of differences between geologic strata. These results are valuable for understanding arsenic mobilization and guiding well construction practices in southeastern Michigan, and may also provide insights for other regions faced with groundwater arsenic contamination. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Environmental Geochemistry and Health↗

Synchrony of Piping Plover breeding populations in the U.S. Northern Great Plains

Local populations that fluctuate synchronously are at a greater risk of extinction than those that do not. The closer the geographic proximity of populations, the more prone they are to synchronizing. Shorebird species select habitat broadly, and many breed across regions with diverse nesting habitat types. Under these conditions, nearby populations may experience conditions sufficiently different to prevent population synchrony, despite dispersal. In the U.S. Northern Great Plains, the Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ), federally listed as Threatened, is a migratory shorebird species that nests on the shorelines of rivers, reservoirs, and alkaline lakes. We assessed the degree to which local plover breeding population abundances were correlated (population synchrony), changed over time (population stability), and were influenced by environmental factors such as available habitat, precipitation, and within-season reservoir level rise. We found that the abundances of breeding populations nesting in riverine and reservoir habitats were the most synchronous, while populations nesting in alkaline lake habitats exhibited the greatest stability. Changes in local breeding population abundances were not explained by a single factor across habitat types. However, the abundances of local populations nesting in alkaline lake and river shoreline habitats were positively correlated with changes in nesting habitat availability. Our results suggest that dispersal among populations nesting in either river or reservoir and alkaline lake shoreline habitat may have an overall stabilizing effect on the persistence of the Great Plains Piping Plover metapopulation.

Condor↗

Phenological synchrony of bird migration with tree flowering at desert riparian stopover sites

Small-bodied songbirds replenish fat reserves during migration at stopover sites where they continually encounter novel and often unpredictable environmental conditions. The ability to select and utilize high quality habitats is critical to survival and fitness. Vegetation phenology is closely linked with emergence of insect prey and may provide valid cues of food availability for stopover habitat selection. Climate change is disrupting phenological synchrony across trophic levels with negative impacts on bird populations. However, whether synchrony or mismatch indicates historic or disrupted systems remains unclear. Many Neotropical migratory songbirds of western North America must cross arid regions where drought conditions related to climate change and human water use are expected to increase. We studied migrant abundance and the diversity (niche breadth) and proportional use of vegetation species as foraging substrates and their synchrony with vegetation flowering during spring migration along the lower Colorado River in the Sonoran Desert of the U.S. and Mexico.

Book chapter↗

Potential effects of regional pumpage on groundwater age distribution

Groundwater ages estimated from environmental tracers can help calibrate groundwater flow models. Groundwater age represents a mixture of traveltimes, with the distribution of ages determined by the detailed structure of the flow field, which can be prone to significant transient variability. Effects of pumping on age distribution were assessed using direct age simulation in a hypothetical layered aquifer system. A steady state predevelopment age distribution was computed first. A well field was then introduced, and pumpage caused leakage into the confined aquifer of older water from an overlying confining unit. Large changes in simulated groundwater ages occurred in both the aquifer and the confining unit at high pumping rates, and the effects propagated a substantial distance downgradient from the wells. The range and variance of ages contributing to the well increased substantially during pumping. The results suggest that the groundwater age distribution in developed aquifers may be affected by transient leakage from low‐permeability material, such as confining units, under certain hydrogeologic conditions.

Water Resources Research↗

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short‐term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0–3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander ( Ambystoma cingulatum ). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non‐overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum , that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane‐prone regions.

Florida↗

USGS science in Menlo Park -- a science strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park Science Center, 2005-2015

In the spring of 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Menlo Park Center Council commissioned an interdisciplinary working group to develop a forward-looking science strategy for the USGS Menlo Park Science Center in California (hereafter also referred to as "the Center"). The Center has been the flagship research center for the USGS in the western United States for more than 50 years, and the Council recognizes that science priorities must be the primary consideration guiding critical decisions made about the future evolution of the Center. In developing this strategy, the working group consulted widely within the USGS and with external clients and collaborators, so that most stakeholders had an opportunity to influence the science goals and operational objectives. The Science Goals are to: Natural Hazards: Conduct natural-hazard research and assessments critical to effective mitigation planning, short-term forecasting, and event response. Ecosystem Change: Develop a predictive understanding of ecosystem change that advances ecosystem restoration and adaptive management. Natural Resources: Advance the understanding of natural resources in a geologic, hydrologic, economic, environmental, and global context. Modeling Earth System Processes: Increase and improve capabilities for quantitative simulation, prediction, and assessment of Earth system processes. The strategy presents seven key Operational Objectives with specific actions to achieve the scientific goals. These Operational Objectives are to: Provide a hub for technology, laboratories, and library services to support science in the Western Region. Increase advanced computing capabilities and promote sharing of these resources. Enhance the intellectual diversity, vibrancy, and capacity of the work force through improved recruitment and retention. Strengthen client and collaborative relationships in the community at an institutional level. Expand monitoring capability by increasing density, sensitivity, and efficiency and reducing costs of instruments and networks. Encourage a breadth of scientific capabilities in Menlo Park to foster interdisciplinary science. Communicate USGS science to a diverse audience.

Circular↗

PRAIRIEMAP: A GIS database for prairie grassland management in western North America

The USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Snake River Field Station (SRFS) maintains a database of spatial information, called PRAIRIEMAP, which is needed to address the management of prairie grasslands in western North America. We identify and collect spatial data for the region encompassing the historical extent of prairie grasslands (Figure 1). State and federal agencies, the primary entities responsible for management of prairie grasslands, need this information to develop proactive management strategies to prevent prairie-grassland wildlife species from being listed as Endangered Species, or to develop appropriate responses if listing does occur. Spatial data are an important component in documenting current habitat and other environmental conditions, which can be used to identify areas that have undergone significant changes in land cover and to identify underlying causes. Spatial data will also be a critical component guiding the decision processes for restoration of habitat in the Great Plains. As such, the PRAIRIEMAP database will facilitate analyses of large-scale and range-wide factors that may be causing declines in grassland habitat and populations of species that depend on it for their survival. Therefore, development of a reliable spatial database carries multiple benefits for land and wildlife management. The project consists of 3 phases: (1) identify relevant spatial data, (2) assemble, document, and archive spatial data on a computer server, and (3) develop and maintain the web site (no longer available) for query and transfer of GIS data to managers and researchers.

Fact Sheet↗

Ecosystem history: Terrestrial and fresh-water ecosystems of southern Florida

Introduction Plant and animal communities of the historic Everglades have undergone striking changes over the last few decades, including declines in wading bird populations, invasion by exotic (non-native) plant and animal species, and areal expansion of cattails into sawgrass marshes. Many of these changes have been attributed to human activities in the region, and efforts are underway to restore the Everglades to a more pristine state. Restoration plans include alteration of the present levee and canal system that controls water flow throughout southern Florida and changes in agricultural and land development activities. However, can we be sure that the observed changes are related to human practices rather than representing an extreme in the natural variability of the system? This question should be answered before changing current land-use practices to alleviate environmental concerns. To address this question, it is necessary to look at patterns of floral and faunal change over the last century as well as over the last few millennia. This project aims to reconstruct floral and faunal composition at selected time intervals throughout southern Florida to determine: 1) detailed biotic changes over the last 150 years; 2) the natural range of biotic variability over the last few thousand years; and 3) determine whether any cause-and-effect relationships exist between biotic and environmental changes. Such questions are being addressed by scientists in the South Florida Initiative of the Ecosystem Program at the U.S. Geological Survey.

Florida↗

Invertebrate prey contributions to juvenile Coho Salmon diet from riparian habitats along three Alaska streams: Implications for environmental change

Stream fish rely on a mix of terrestrial and aquatic prey sources. While the importance of terrestrial invertebrates as a food source for stream fish is well documented, the role of aquatic insects that emerge from the stream as winged adult insects (aquatic winged adults) and return to the stream as prey is less understood. In this study we determined the proportion of total diet for stream-rearing juvenile Coho Salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch) that is derived from terrestrial and aquatic winged adult invertebrates which enter the stream from riparian habitats and consider how those cross-ecosystem prey contributions vary based on riparian habitat type. Study reaches were identified in three streams within the Kenai River watershed of Alaska that were representative of habitats found throughout the region and riparian vegetation was classified into grass/sedge, shrub and tree types using LiDAR. Juvenile Coho Salmon stomach contents were sampled seasonally in study reaches over a two-year period and ingested invertebrates were identified by taxa, life stage and origin. Our results showed that aquatic winged adult prey contributions to juvenile salmon diet were significantly lower in the grass/sedge study reach, and cross-ecosystem invertebrate prey represented a significantly higher proportion of juvenile salmon diet in the tree study reach. Invertebrate prey in the grass/sedge reach were composed primarily of the larval life stage of aquatic winged adults. These results suggest that change in riparian vegetation from tree/shrub to grass/sedge along Kenai streams as projected by regional climate change models, or that results from anthropogenic modification, will likely lead to lower availability of cross-ecosystem prey for stream fish. Management of riparian buffers along streams to preserve or increase occurrence of trees and shrubs is likely to help mitigate impacts of those possible changes.

Alaska↗

Potential environmental issues of CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers: Geochemical results from the Frio-I Brine Pilot test, Texas, USA

Sedimentary basins in general, and deep saline aquifers in particular, are being investigated as possible repositories for large volumes of anthropogenic CO 2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes. To investigate the potential for the long-term storage of CO 2 in such aquifers, 1600 t of CO 2 were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-m-thick "C" sandstone unit of the Frio Formation, a regional aquifer in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained before CO 2 injection from the injection well and an observation well 30 m updip showed a Na–Ca–Cl type brine with ∼93,000 mg/L TDS at saturation with CH 4 at reservoir conditions; gas analyses showed that CH 4 comprised ∼95% of dissolved gas, but CO 2 was low at 0.3%. Following CO 2 breakthrough, 51 h after injection, samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5–5.7), pronounced increases in alkalinity (100–3000 mg/L as HCO 3 ) and in Fe (30–1100 mg/L), a slug of very high DOC values, and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H 2 O, DIC, and CH 4 . These data, coupled with geochemical modeling, indicate corrosion of pipe and well casing as well as rapid dissolution of minerals, especially calcite and iron oxyhydroxides, both caused by lowered pH (initially ∼3.0 at subsurface conditions) of the brine in contact with supercritical CO 2 . These geochemical parameters, together with perfluorocarbon tracer gases (PFTs), were used to monitor migration of the injected CO 2 into the overlying Frio “B”, composed of a 4-m-thick sandstone and separated from the “C” by ∼15 m of shale and siltstone beds. Results obtained from the Frio “B” 6 months after injection gave chemical and isotopic markers that show significant CO 2 (2.9% compared with 0.3% CO 2 in dissolved gas) migration into the “B” sandstone. Results of samples collected 15 months after injection, however, are ambiguous, and can be interpreted to show no additional injected CO 2 in the “B” sandstone. The presence of injected CO 2 may indicate migration from “C” to “B” through the intervening beds or, more likely, a short-term leakage through the remedial cement around the casing of a 50-year old well. Results obtained to date from four shallow monitoring groundwater wells show no brine or CO 2 leakage through the Anahuac Formation, the regional cap rock.

Texas↗

High-frequency data reveal deicing salts drive elevated specific conductance and chloride along with pervasive and frequent exceedances of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency aquatic life criteria for chloride in urban streams

Increasing specific conductance (SC) and chloride concentrations [Cl] negatively affect many stream ecosystems. We characterized spatial variability in SC, [Cl], and exceedances of Environmental Protection Agency [Cl] criteria using nearly 30 million high-frequency observations (2–15 min intervals) for SC and modeled [Cl] from 93 sites across three regions in the eastern United States: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. SC and [Cl] increase substantially from south to north and within regions with impervious surface cover (ISC). In the Southeast, [Cl] weakly correlates with ISC, no [Cl] exceedances occur, and [Cl] concentrations are constant with time. In the Mid-Atlantic and New England, [Cl] and [Cl] exceedances strongly correlate with ISC. [Cl] criteria are frequently exceeded at sites with greater than 9–10% ISC and median [Cl] higher than 30–80 mg/L. Tens to hundreds of [Cl] exceedances observed annually at most of these sites help explain previous research where stream ecosystems showed changes at (primarily nonwinter) [Cl] as low as 30–40 mg/L. Mid-Atlantic chronic [Cl] exceedances occur primarily in December–March. In New England, exceedances are common in nonwinter months. [Cl] is increasing at nearly all Mid-Atlantic and New England sites with the largest increases at sites with higher [Cl].

Environmental Science and Technology↗

Climate tolerances and habitat requirements jointly shape the elevational distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with implications for climate change effects

Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat , winter snowpack , and forage availability . We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.

PLoS ONE↗

Homeowners’ willingness to adopt environmentally beneficial landscape practices in an urbanizing watershed

Streams in urbanizing watersheds often experience low flows in summer due to increased water use for residential landscaping and decreased base flow as impervious land cover limits aquifer recharge. Environmentally beneficial landscape practices that save water and infiltrate runoff have the potential to provide multiple ecological benefits including reducing stress on urban streams, but can face opposition by local homeowners. Thus, this study explored attitudes toward landscape water conservation including the barriers and motivations that exist to adoption of water conserving landscape practices by residents in the Ipswich River watershed north of Boston, Massachusetts that experiences seasonal water shortages. The study used a mail-out and on-line survey with images of different water conserving landscape practices (including rain gardens and native plantings) and questions about homeowners’ watering practices, likelihood of adopting these landscape practices, and attitudes towards environmental issues in the region, including existing water policies to restrict use. The results showed that residents (n=265) were aware of existing water shortages and supportive of water conservation policies. Their willingness to adopt water conserving landscape practices was influenced by aesthetic preference with more support for practices that appeared neat rather than those that appeared unkempt. Barriers to residential adoption of these landscape practices included concern about disease-carrying pests and the perceived cost of landscape change. Knowledge about the environment, as operationalized by membership in a local watershed association, as well as educational attainment and income were significant variables in predicting aesthetic preferences and willingness to adopt landscape practices. Promoting widespread adoption of water conserving landscape practices will require local community support and educational initiatives about the multiple-benefits of these practices, including potential long-term cost savings for homeowners. Residential landscape design and management, however, is only part of overarching policy changes that must be implemented to address water conservation in urbanizing watersheds.

Massachusetts↗

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

Alaska↗

Coastal classification atlas: South Texas coastal classification maps: Mansfield Channel to the Rio Grande

The Nation's rapidly growing coastal population requires reliable information regarding the vulnerability of coastal regions to storm impacts. This has created a need for classifying coastal lands and evaluating storm-hazard vulnerability. Government officials and resource managers responsible for dealing with natural hazards also need accurate assessments of potential storm impacts in order to make informed decisions before, during, and after major storm events. Both economic development and coastal-damage mitigation require integrated models of storm parameters, hazard vulnerability, and expected coastal responses. Thus, storm-hazard vulnerability assessments constitute one of the fundamental components of forecasting storm impacts. Each year as many as 10 to 12 hurricanes and tropical storms will be the focus of national attention. Of particular interest are intense hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5 of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that have the potential to cause substantial economic and environmental damage to the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These coastal regions include some of the largest metropolitan areas in the country and they continue to experience rapid population growth. Based on media reports, there is a general lack of public knowledge regarding how different coastal segments will respond to the same storm or how the same coastal segment will respond differently depending on storm conditions. A primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk. A secondary purpose is to develop a broad coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States.

Texas↗

Unexpected diversity of Endozoicomonas in deep-sea corals

ABSTRACT: The deep ocean hosts a large diversity of azooxanthellate cold-water corals whose associated microbiomes remain to be described. While the bacterial genus Endozoicomonas has been widely identified as a dominant associate of tropical and temperate corals, it has rarely been detected in deep-sea corals. Determining microbial baselines for these cold-water corals is a critical first step to understanding the ecosystem services their microbiomes contribute, while providing a benchmark against which to measure responses to environmental change or anthropogenic effects. Samples of Acanthogorgia aspera , A. spissa , Desmophyllum dianthus , and D. pertusum ( Lophelia pertusa ) were collected from western Atlantic sites off the US east coast and from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Microbiomes were characterized by 16S rRNA gene amplicon surveys. Although D. dianthus and D. pertusum have recently been combined into a single genus due to their genetic similarity, their microbiomes were significantly different. The Acanthogorgia spp. were collected from submarine canyons in different regions, but their microbiomes were extremely similar and dominated by Endozoicomonas . This is the first report of coral microbiomes dominated by Endozoicomonas occurring below 1000 m, at temperatures near 4°C. D. pertusum from 2 Atlantic sites were also dominated by distinct Endozoicomonas , unlike D. pertusum from other sites described in previous studies, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Mediterranean Sea and a Norwegian fjord.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

Anthropogenic and geogenic factors affecting groundwater arsenic and potential drinking water exposure in the San Luis Valley, Colorado

Groundwater arsenic is a serious health threat in many regions with limited surface water drinking supplies. In the San Luis Valley, Colorado, USA, where most residents rely on groundwater for drinking water, elevated groundwater arsenic concentrations (≥5 μg/L) were observed in 19.8% of private wells. Many recent studies have leveraged data science methods to estimate the spatial variability of arsenic at local, regional, and global scales. These studies typically predict depth-independent arsenic concentrations due to limited well depth information. However, arsenic concentrations may vary greatly with depth due to heterogeneous aquifer geochemistry, including redox potential, pH, and biogeochemical conditions. In this study, we apply random forest modeling to predict elevated groundwater arsenic concentrations (≥5 μg/L) over space and depth continuously across the San Luis Valley using a community-driven data set of 435 groundwater measurements of major ions and trace metals. Our model reveals the influence of several known or hypothesized drivers or proxy drivers of arsenic in groundwater, including surface elevation, fraction of fine-grained aquifer sediments, well depth, soil pH, long-term subsidence, and geothermal influences. Elevation, percentage of fine-grained sediments, and elemental indicators of geothermal fluid influence are some of the most important predictors of arsenic, while long-term subsidence is found to have a weak but positive relationship with arsenic. The model has a specificity of 0.82 and a sensitivity of 0.81 on held-out test data sets. In addition to improving understanding of drivers of arsenic in the region, this model produces pseudo-3D estimates of groundwater arsenic. The model can also be used to assess the time-dependent exposure to arsenic as the depth of domestic wells changes over time.

Colorado↗