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Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes↗

Geologic constraints on the formation and evolution of Saturn’s mid-sized moons

Saturn’s mid-sized icy moons have complex relationships with Saturn’s interior, the rings, and with each other, which can be expressed in their shapes, interiors, and geology. Observations of their physical states can, thus, provide important constraints on the ages and formation mechanism(s) of the moons, which in turn informs our understanding of the formation and evolution of Saturn and its rings. Here, we describe the cratering records of the mid-sized moons and the value and limitations of their use for constraining the histories of the moons. We also discuss observational constraints on the interior structures of the moons and geologically-derived inferences on their thermal budgets through time. Overall, the geologic records of the moons (with the exception of Mimas) include evidence of epochs of high heat flows, short- and long-lived subsurface oceans, extensional tectonics, and considerable cratering. Curiously, Mimas presents no clear evidence of an ocean within its surface geology, but its rotation and orbit indicate a present-day ocean. While the moons need not be primordial to produce the observed levels of interior evolution and geologic activity, there is likely a minimum age associated with their development that has yet to be determined. Uncertainties in the populations impacting the moons makes it challenging to further constrain their formation timeframes using craters, whereas the characteristics of their cores and other geologic inferences of their thermal evolutions may help narrow down their potential histories. Disruptive collisions may have also played an important role in the formation and evolution of Saturn’s mid-sized moons, and even the rings of Saturn, although more sophisticated modeling is needed to determine the collision conditions that produce rings and moons that fit the observational constraints. Overall, the existence and physical characteristics of Saturn’s mid-sized moons provide critical benchmarks for the development of formation theories.

Space Science Reviews↗

Application of an unstructured 3D finite volume numerical model to flows and salinity dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

A linked modeling approach has been undertaken to understand the impacts of climate and infrastructure on aquatic ecology and water quality in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region. The Delft3D Flexible Mesh modeling suite is used in this effort for its 3D hydrodynamics, salinity, temperature and sediment dynamics, phytoplankton and water-quality coupling infrastructure, and linkage to a habitat suitability model. The hydrodynamic model component of the suite is D-Flow FM, a new 3D unstructured finite-volume model based on the Delft3D model. In this paper, D-Flow FM is applied to the San Francisco Bay-Delta to investigate tidal, seasonal and annual dynamics of water levels, river flows and salinity under historical environmental and infrastructural conditions. The model is driven by historical winds, tides, ocean salinity, and river flows, and includes federal, state, and local freshwater withdrawals, and regional gate and barrier operations. The model is calibrated over a 9-month period, and subsequently validated for water levels, flows, and 3D salinity dynamics over a 2 year period. Model performance was quantified using several model assessment metrics and visualized through target diagrams. These metrics indicate that the model accurately estimated water levels, flows, and salinity over wide-ranging tidal and fluvial conditions, and the model can be used to investigate detailed circulation and salinity patterns throughout the Bay-Delta. The hydrodynamics produced through this effort will be used to drive affiliated sediment, phytoplankton, and contaminant hindcast efforts and habitat suitability assessments for fish and bivalves. The modeling framework applied here will serve as a baseline to ultimately shed light on potential ecosystem change over the current century.

California↗

A new deglacial climate and sea-level record from 20 to 8 ka from IODP381 site M0080, Alkyonides Gulf, eastern Mediterranean

Records of relative sea-level rise for the last deglaciation are mostly limited to coral reef records and geophysical model estimates, but observational data from regions with temperate climates is sparse. We present a new relative climatic and regional sea-level rise record for glacial Termination 1 (Marine Isotope Stages [MIS] 2–1) based on ostracode paleoecology from the upper 8 m of the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site M0080 collected on Expedition 381, in the Gulf of Alkyonides, eastern Corinth basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Results show a series of major faunal transitions from lacustrine (Ponto-Caspian, Lake Corinth) glacial-age assemblages to fully marine (Mediterranean) interglacial assemblages between 20 and 8 ka. During glacial and early deglacial intervals, the Gulf of Alkyonides was characterized by non-marine lacustrine conditions with episodic sediment input from coastal, saline lake environments. Relatively stable lake shoreline conditions marked by the distinctive Tuberoloxoconcha sp. Existed from ∼17.5 to 15 ka. During the peak deglacial interval, the BØlling-AllerØd (B-A, ∼15–13.5 ka), rapid sea-level rise is indicated by a fully marine ostracode fauna colonization, which persisted from 13.5 to 7.5 ka (Late Pleistocene-Early to Middle Holocene).

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Isotopic composition of lead in oceanic basalt and its implication to mantle evolution

New data are given in this report for (1) Pb isotopic compositions and U, Th, and Pb concentrations of basalts from the island of Hawaii; (2) redetermined Pb isotopic compositions of some abyssal tholeiites; and (3) U, Th, and Pb concentrations of altered and fresh abyssal basalts, and basalt genesis and mantle evolution are discussed. The Th/U ratios of abyssal and Japanese tholeiites are distinctly lower than those of tholeiites and alkali basalts from other areas. It is thought that these low values reflect a part of the mantle depleted in large ionic lithophile elements. Thus a mantle evolution model is presented, in which Th/U ratios of the depleted zone in the mantle have decreased to ∼2, and U/Pb ratios have increased, showing an apparent ∼1.5-b.y. isochron trend in the 207 Pb/ 204 Pb vs. 206 Pb/ 204 Pb plot. The Pb isotopic compositions of basalts from the island of Hawaii are distinct for each of the five volcanoes, and within each volcano, Pb's of tholeiites and alkali basalts are similar. An interaction between partially melted material (hot plume?) of the asthenosphere and the lithosphere is suggested to explain the trend in the Pb isotopic compositions of Hawaiian basalts.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Steady- and non-steady-state carbonate-silicate controls on atmospheric CO2

Two contrasting hypotheses have recently been proposed for the past long-term relation between atmospheric CO 2 and the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle. One approach (Berner, 1990) suggests that CO 2 levels have varied in a manner that has maintained chemical weathering and carbonate sedimentation at a steady state with respect to tectonically controlled decarbonation reactions. A second approach (Raymo et al. , 1988), applied specificlly to the late Cenozoic, suggests a decrease in CO 2 caused by an uplift-induced increase in chemical weathering, without regard to the rate of decarbonation. According to the steady-state (first) hypothesis, increased weathering and carbonate sedimentation are generally associated with increasing atmospheric CO 2 , whereas the uplift (second) hypothesis implies decreasing CO 2 under the same conditions. An ocean-atmosphere-sediment model has been used to assess the response of atmospheric CO 2 and carbonate sedimentation to global perturbations in chemical weathering and decarbonation reactions. Although this assessment is theoretical and cannot yet be related to the geologic record, the model simulations compare steady-state and non-steady-state carbonate-silicate cycle response. The e-fold response time of the ‘CO 2 -weathering’ feedback mechanism is between 300 and 400 ka. The response of carbonate sedimentation is much more rapid. These response times provide a measure of the strength of steady-state assumptions, and imply that certain systematic relations are sustained throughout steady-state and non-steady-state scenarios for the carbonate-silicate cycle. The simulations suggest that feedbacks can maintain the system near a steady state, but that non-steady-state effects may contribute to long-term trends. The steady-state and uplift hypotheses are not necessarily incompatible over time scales of a few million years.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

A marine biogeochemical perspective on black shale deposition

Deposition of marine black shales has commonly been interpreted as having involved a high level of marine phytoplankton production that promoted high settling rates of organic matter through the water column and high burial fluxes on the seafloor or anoxic (sulfidic) water-column conditions that led to high levels of preservation of deposited organic matter, or a combination of the two processes. Here we review the hydrography and the budgets of trace metals and phytoplankton nutrients in two modern marine basins that have permanently anoxic bottom waters. This information is then used to hindcast the hydrography and biogeochemical conditions of deposition of a black shale of Late Jurassic age (the Kimmeridge Clay Formation, Yorkshire, England) from its trace metal and organic carbon content. Comparison of the modern and Jurassic sediment compositions reveals that the rate of photic zone primary productivity in the Kimmeridge Sea, based on the accumulation rate of the marine fraction of Ni, was as high as 840 g organic carbon m − 2 yr −1 . This high level was possibly tied to the maximum rise of sea level during the Late Jurassic that flooded this and other continents sufficiently to allow major open-ocean boundary currents to penetrate into epeiric seas. Sites of intense upwelling of nutrient-enriched seawater would have been transferred from the continental margins, their present location, onto the continents. This global flooding event was likely responsible for deposition of organic matter-enriched sediments in other marine basins of this age, several of which today host major petroleum source rocks. Bottom-water redox conditions in the Kimmeridge Sea, deduced from the V:Mo ratio in the marine fraction of the Kimmeridge Clay Formation, varied from oxic to anoxic, but were predominantly suboxic, or denitrifying. A high settling flux of organic matter, a result of the high primary productivity, supported a high rate of bacterial respiration that led to the depletion of O 2 in the bottom water. A high rate of burial of labile organic matter, albeit a low percentage of primary productivity, in turn promoted anoxic conditions in the sediment pore waters that enhanced retention of trace metals deposited from the water column.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

Extreme endurance flights by landbirds crossing the Pacific Ocean: Ecological corridor rather than barrier?

Mountain ranges, deserts, ice fields and oceans generally act as barriers to the movement of land-dependent animals, often profoundly shaping migration routes. We used satellite telemetry to track the southward flights of bar-tailed godwits (Limosa lapponica baueri), shorebirds whose breeding and non-breeding areas are separated by the vast central Pacific Ocean. Seven females with surgically implanted transmitters flew non-stop 8117-11680km (10153??1043 s.d.) directly across the Pacific Ocean; two males with external transmitters flew non-stop along the same corridor for 7008-7390km. Flight duration ranged from 6.0 to 9.4 days (7.8??1.3 s.d.) for birds with implants and 5.0 to 6.6 days for birds with externally attached transmitters. These extraordinary non-stop flights establish new extremes for avian flight performance, have profound implications for understanding the physiological capabilities of vertebrates and how birds navigate, and challenge current physiological paradigms on topics such as sleep, dehydration and phenotypic flexibility. Predicted changes in climatic systems may affect survival rates if weather conditions at their departure hub or along the migration corridor should change. We propose that this transoceanic route may function as an ecological corridor rather than a barrier, providing a wind-assisted passage relatively free of pathogens and predators. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

Petrology and tectonic history of the Green Bay Schist, Portmore, St. Catherine Parish, Jamaica

There are three occurrences of medium- to high-grade metamorphic rocks in Jamaica: amphibolite facies Westphalia Schist, blueschist/greenschist facies Mt. Hibernia Schist, and the hitherto poorly characterized amphibolite facies Green Bay Schist. New trace element data and thermodynamic calculations show that Green Bay Schist is closely related to Westphalia Schist. The protoliths for both are very similiar (basalt-andesitic basalt, C-MORB), consistent with a subducted ocean-ridge tectonic environment, hence arc-related. The protolith for Mt. Hibernia Schist is quite different (basalt, P-MORB), related to the Caribbean Large Igneous Province. Whereas the P-T-t paths for Green Bay Schist and Westphalia Schist prior to the middle Campanian (>78 Ma) are inferred to be similar, the late Campanian, Maastrichtian and Cenozoic P-T-t paths are very different. New 40Ar/39Ar age determinations show the following: (1) While the difference in the late Campanian and Maastrichtian remains problematic, (2) the difference in the Cenozoic clearly reflects the location relative to the NW-trending, NE-dipping Wagwater Fault: Westphalia Schist to the NE (hanging wall); Green Bay Schist to the SW (foot wall). The Cenozoic P-T-t paths are complementary, and consistent with the behavior of the Wagwater Fault: 65-50 Ma, normal motion (transtension); 50-10 Ma, inactive (quiescent); 10 Ma-present, reverse motion (transpression).

Portmore↗

Growth response of a deep-water ferromanganese crust to evolution of the Neogene Indian Ocean

A deep-water ferromanganese crust from a Central Indian Ocean seamount dated previously by 10Be and 230Th(excess) was studied for compositional and textural variations that occurred throughout its growth history. The 10Be/9Be dated interval (upper 32 mm) yields an uniform growth rate of 2.8 ?? 0.1 mm/Ma [Frank, M., O'Nions, R.K., 1998. Sources of Pb for Indian Ocean ferromanganese crusts: a record of Himalayan erosion. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 158, pp. 121-130.] which gives an extrapolated age of ~ 26 Ma for the base of the crust at 72 mm and is comparable to the maximum age derived from the Co-model based growth rate estimates. This study shows that Fe-Mn oxyhydroxide precipitation did not occur from the time of emplacement of the seamount during the Eocene (~ 53 Ma) until the late Oligocene (~ 26 Ma). This paucity probably was the result of a nearly overlapping palaeo-CCD and palaeo-depth of crust formation, increased early Eocene productivity, instability and reworking of the surface rocks on the flanks of the seamount, and lack of oxic deep-water in the nascent Indian Ocean. Crust accretion began (older zone) with the formation of isolated cusps of Fe-Mn oxide during a time of high detritus influx, probably due to the early-Miocene intense erosion associated with maximum exhumation of the Himalayas (op. cit.). This cuspate textured zone extends from 72 mm to 42 mm representing the early-Miocene period. Intense polar cooling and increased mixing of deep and intermediate waters at the close of the Oligocene might have led to the increased oxygenation of the bottom-water in the basin. A considerable expansion in the vertical distance between the seafloor depth and the CCD during the early Miocene in addition to the influx of oxygenated bottom-water likely initiated Fe-Mn crust formation. Pillar structure characterises the younger zone, which extends from 40 mm to the surface of the crust, i.e., ~ 15 Ma to Present. This zone is characterised by > 25% higher content of oxide-bound elements than in the older zone, possibly corresponding to further increased oxygenation of bottom-waters, increased stability of the seamount slope, and gradually reduced input of continental detritus from the erosion of the Himalayas. Middle Miocene Antarctic glaciation, which peaked ~ 12-13 Ma ago, increased the oxic bottom-water influx to the basin resulting in accretion of the crust with low detritus. Therefore, the younger crust started to accrete in response to a shift in bottom-water circulation towards the contemporary pattern, which produced a uniform growth rate and pillar structure up to the present. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Marine Geology↗

Lithospheric density structure beneath the Tarim basin and surroundings, northwestern China, from the joint inversion of gravity and topography

Intraplate strain generally focuses in discrete zones, but despite the profound impact of this partitioning on global tectonics, geodynamics, and seismic hazard, the processes by which deformation becomes localized are not well understood. Such heterogeneous intraplate strain is exemplified in central Asia, where the Indo-Eurasian collision has caused widespread deformation while the Tarim block has experienced minimal Cenozoic shortening. The apparent stability of Tarim may arise either because strain is dominantly accommodated by pre-existing faults in the continental suture zones that bound it—essentially discretizing Eurasia into microplates—or because the lithospheric-scale strength (i.e., viscosity) of the Tarim block is greater than its surroundings. Here, we jointly analyze seismic velocity, gravity, topography, and temperature to develop a 3-D density model of the crust and upper mantle in this region. The Tarim crust is characterized by high density, v s , v p , and v p /v s , consistent with a dominantly mafic composition and with the presence of an oceanic plateau beneath Tarim. Low-density but high-velocity mantle lithosphere beneath southern (southwestern) Tarim underlies a suite of Permian plume-related mafic intrusions and A-type granites sourced in previously depleted mantle lithosphere; we posit that this region was further depleted, dehydrated, and strengthened by Permian plume magmatism. The actively deforming western and southern margins of Tarim—the Tien Shan, Kunlun Shan, and Altyn Tagh fault—are underlain by buoyant upper mantle with low velocity; we hypothesize that this material has been hydrated by mantle-derived fluids that have preferentially migrated along Paleozoic continental sutures. Such hydrous material should be weak, and herein strain focuses there because of lithospheric-scale variations in rheology rather than the pre-existence of faults in the brittle crust. Thus this world-class example of strain partitioning arises not simply from the pre-existence of brittle faults but from the thermo-chemical and therefore rheological variations inherited from prior tectonism.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗

Evidence for prolonged El Nino-like conditions in the Pacific during the Late Pleistocene: a 43 ka noble gas record from California groundwaters

Information on the ocean/atmosphere state over the period spanning the Last Glacial Maximum - from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene - provides crucial constraints on the relationship between orbital forcing and global climate change. The Pacific Ocean is particularly important in this respect because of its dominant role in exporting heat and moisture from the tropics to higher latitudes. Through targeting groundwaters in the Mojave Desert, California, we show that noble gas derived temperatures in California averaged 4.2 ?? 1.1 ??C cooler in the Late Pleistocene (from ???43 to ???12 ka) compared to the Holocene (from ???10 to ???5 ka). Furthermore, the older groundwaters contain higher concentrations of excess air (entrained air bubbles) and have elevated oxygen-18/oxygen-16 ratios (?? 18 O) - indicators of vigorous aquifer recharge, and greater rainfall amounts and/or more intense precipitation events, respectively. Together, these paleoclimate indicators reveal that cooler and wetter conditions prevailed in the Mojave Desert from ???43 to ???12 ka. We suggest that during the Late Pleistocene, the Pacific ocean/atmosphere state was similar to present-day El Nino-like patterns, and was characterized by prolonged periods of weak trade winds, weak upwelling along the eastern Pacific margin, and increased precipitation in the southwestern U.S.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Enhanced biological processes associated with alopecia in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus )

Populations of wildlife species worldwide experience incidents of mass morbidity and mortality. Primary or secondary drivers of these events may escape classical detection methods for identifying microbial insults, toxin exposure, or additional stressors. In 2012, 28% of polar bears sampled in a study in the southern Beaufort Sea region of Alaska had varying degrees of alopecia that was concomitant with reduced body condition. Concurrently, elevated numbers of sick or dead ringed seals were detected in the southern Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas in 2012, resulting in the declaration of an unusual mortality event (UME) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The primary and possible ancillary causative stressors of these events are unknown, and related physiological changes within individual animals have been undetectable using classical diagnostic methods. Here we present an emerging technology as a potentially guiding investigative approach aimed at elucidating the circumstances responsible for the susceptibility of certain polar bears to observed conditions. Using transcriptomic analysis we identified enhanced biological processes including immune response, viral defense, and response to stress in polar bears with alopecia. Our results support an alternative mechanism of investigation into the causative agents that, when used proactively, could serve as an early indicator for populations and species at risk. We suggest that current or classical methods for investigation into events of unusual morbidity and mortality can be costly, sometimes unfocused, and often inconclusive. Advances in technology allow for implementation of a holistic system of surveillance and investigation that could provide early warning of health concerns in wildlife species important to humans.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Sequential megafaunal collapse in the North Pacific Ocean: An ongoing legacy of industrial whaling?

Populations of seals, sea lions, and sea otters have sequentially collapsed over large areas of the northern North Pacific Ocean and southern Bering Sea during the last several decades. A bottom-up nutritional limitation mechanism induced by physical oceanographic change or competition with fisheries was long thought to be largely responsible for these declines. The current weight of evidence is more consistent with top-down forcing. Increased predation by killer whales probably drove the sea otter collapse and may have been responsible for the earlier pinniped declines as well. We propose that decimation of the great whales by post-World War II industrial whaling caused the great whales' foremost natural predators, killer whales, to begin feeding more intensively on the smaller marine mammals, thus "fishing-down" this element of the marine food web. The timing of these events, information on the abundance, diet, and foraging behavior of both predators and prey, and feasibility analyses based on demographic and energetic modeling are all consistent with this hypothesis.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Regional ocean models indicate changing limits to biological invasions in the Bering Sea

Minimal vessel traffic and cold water temperatures are believed to limit non-indigenous species (NIS) in high-latitude ecosystems. We evaluated whether suitable conditions exist in the Bering Sea for the introduction, survival, and reproduction of NIS. We compiled temperature and salinity thresholds of known NIS and compared these to ocean conditions projected during two study periods: current (2003-2012) and mid-century (2030-2039). We also explored patterns of vessel traffic and connectivity for U.S. Bering Sea ports. We found the southeastern Bering Sea had suitable conditions for the year-round survival of 80% of NIS assessed (n=42). However, only 52% of NIS had conditions suitable for reproduction or development (n=25). Conditions north of 58° N that include sub-zero winter water temperatures were unsuitable for the survival and reproduction of most NIS. While mid-century models predicted a northward expansion of suitable conditions, conditions for reproduction remained marginal. Within the highly suitable southeastern Bering Sea is the port of Dutch Harbor, which received the most vessel arrivals and ballast water discharge in the U.S. Bering Sea. Our findings illustrate the potential vulnerability of a commercially important subarctic ecosystem and highlight the need to consider NIS reproductive and developmental life phases when evaluating limits to their establishment.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

An increase in the slope of the concentration-discharge relation for total organic carbon in major rivers in New England, 1973 to 2019

The mobilization and transport of organic carbon (OC) in rivers and delivery to the near-coastal ocean are important processes in the carbon cycle that are affected by both climate and anthropogenic activities. Riverine OC transport can affect carbon sequestration, contaminant transport, ocean acidification , the formation of toxic disinfection by-products, ocean temperature and phytoplankton productivity. There have been many studies reporting temporal trends in OC concentrations in comparatively small streams with minimal anthropogenic influences but there have been fewer studies on larger rivers and fewer still that have investigated changes in OC concentration-discharge (C-Q) relations. This study examined changes in C-Q relations for total organic carbon (TOC) from 1973 to 2019 in 8 rivers in New England, USA. TOC concentrations declined in all rivers, and in most rivers, and in most seasons, the slope of the C-Q relation increased between 1973 to 1995 and 1996 to 2019. The increase in C-Q slope between periods may be related to changes in the magnitude of TOC sources. The most likely sources to have changed are wastewater inputs, urban runoff, production through photosynthesis in aquatic systems, and runoff from agricultural and forestry practices. Changes in wetland abundance and changes in sulfate concentrations can be ruled out as drivers of the observed changes in C-Q.

Connecticut↗

A generalized model for estimating the energy density of invertebrates

Invertebrate energy density (ED) values are traditionally measured using bomb calorimetry. However, many researchers rely on a few published literature sources to obtain ED values because of time and sampling constraints on measuring ED with bomb calorimetry. Literature values often do not account for spatial or temporal variability associated with invertebrate ED. Thus, these values can be unreliable for use in models and other ecological applications. We evaluated the generality of the relationship between invertebrate ED and proportion of dry-to-wet mass (pDM). We then developed and tested a regression model to predict ED from pDM based on a taxonomically, spatially, and temporally diverse sample of invertebrates representing 28 orders in aquatic (freshwater, estuarine, and marine) and terrestrial (temperate and arid) habitats from 4 continents and 2 oceans. Samples included invertebrates collected in all seasons over the last 19 y. Evaluation of these data revealed a significant relationship between ED and pDM ( r 2 = 0.96, p < 0.0001), where ED (as J/g wet mass) was estimated from pDM as ED = 22,960pDM &minus; 174.2. Model evaluation showed that nearly all (98.8%) of the variability between observed and predicted values for invertebrate ED could be attributed to residual error in the model. Regression of observed on predicted values revealed that the 97.5% joint confidence region included the intercept of 0 (&minus;103.0 &plusmn; 707.9) and slope of 1 (1.01 &plusmn; 0.12). Use of this model requires that only dry and wet mass measurements be obtained, resulting in significant time, sample size, and cost savings compared to traditional bomb calorimetry approaches. This model should prove useful for a wide range of ecological studies because it is unaffected by taxonomic, seasonal, or spatial variability.

Freshwater Science↗