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USGS2009

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km 2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km 2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2012

Applications of 3D hydrodynamic and particle tracking models in the San Francisco bay-delta estuary

Three applications of three-dimensional hydrodynamic and particle-tracking models are currently underway by the United States Geological Survey in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary. The first application is to the San Francisco Bay and a portion of the coastal ocean. The second application is to an important, gated control channel called the Delta Cross Channel, located within the northern portion of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The third application is to a reach of the San Joaquin River near Stockton, California where a significant dissolved oxygen problem exists due, in part, to conditions associated with the deep-water ship channel for the Port of Stockton, California. This paper briefly discusses the hydrodynamic and particle tracking models being used and the three applications. Copyright ASCE 2005.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

USGS Arctic Ocean carbon cruise 2010: field activity H-03-10-AR to collect carbon data in the Arctic Ocean, August - September 2010

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the surface of the ocean by reacting with seawater to form carbonic acid, a weak, naturally occurring acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Sabine and others, 2004). Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Orr and others, 2005; Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO 2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats (Raven and others, 2005; Ruttiman, 2006). The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Data Series↗

USGS2013

USGS Arctic Ocean carbon cruise 2011: field activity H-01-11-AR to collect carbon data in the Arctic Ocean, August - September 2011

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the surface of the ocean by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Sabine and others, 2004). Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Orr and others, 2005; Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO 2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats (Raven and others, 2005; Ruttiman, 2006). The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Data Series↗

USGS2018

Hydrodynamics of a tidally‐forced coral reef atoll

The hydrodynamics of a tidally forced semi‐enclosed coral reef atoll (North Scott) at the edge of the continental shelf of northwestern Australia were investigated by combining field observations and numerical modeling. The observations revealed that the spring tidal range outside the atoll reaches 4 m, and as the water level drops below mean sea level, the reef rim surrounding the shallow (~10–15 m) lagoon becomes exposed. During this time, the lagoon can only exchange with the open ocean through two narrow channels, resulting in highly asymmetric water levels and velocities that were most pronounced during spring tide. On average, the ebb tide duration was ~2 hr longer than the flood, with rapid flood velocities in the channel reaching 2 m/s. We applied an unstructured grid model Delft3D‐Flexible Mesh to simulate the atoll hydrodynamics and were able to replicate the asymmetric water levels and complex velocities in the lagoon. The results revealed that at higher tidal stages, a dominant momentum balance exists between the pressure gradient (established by the propagation of the tide on the shelf) and the local flow acceleration of water throughout the interior of the atoll. At lower tidal stages, which coincided with a reversal of the offshore tidal pressure gradient, the lagoon became isolated from offshore dynamics and all momentum terms were negligible. This resulted in a tidally averaged residual westward flow within the lagoon that drove an asymmetric flushing pattern within the atoll, which we propose would be a common flushing mechanism within other tide‐dominated atolls worldwide.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2012

Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami

The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast.

Sumatra↗

USGS2010

Episodic swell growth inferred from variable uplift of the Cape Verde hotspot islands

On the Beagle voyage, Charles Darwin first noted the creation and subsidence of ocean islands 1 , establishing in geology’s infancy that island freeboard changes with time. Hotspot ocean islands have an obvious mechanism for freeboard change through the growth of the bathymetric anomaly, or swell 2 , on which the islands rest. Models for swell development indicate that flexural 9 , thermal 2 , 3 or dynamic pressure 4 , 5 , 6 , 8 contributions, as well as spreading of melt residue from the hotspot 7 , can all contribute to island uplift. Here we test various models for swell development using the uplift histories for the islands of the Cape Verde hotspot, derived from isotopic dating of marine terraces and subaerial to submarine lava-flow morphologies. The island uplift histories, in conjunction with inter-island spacing, uplift rate and timing differences, rule out flexural, thermal or dynamic pressure contributions. We also find that uplift cannot be reconciled with models that advocate the spreading of melt residue in swell development unless swell growth is episodic. Instead, we infer from the uplift histories that two processes have acted to raise the islands during the past 6 Myr. During an initial phase, mantle processes acted to build the swell. Subsequently, magmatic intrusions at the island edifice caused 350 m of local uplift at the scale of individual islands. Finally, swell-wide uplift contributed a further 100 m of surface rise.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2021

Time to refine mercury mass balance models for fish

Mercury mass balance models (MMBMs) for fish are powerful tools for understanding factors affecting growth and food consumption by free-ranging fish in rivers, lakes, and oceans. Moreover, MMBMs can be used to predict the consequences of global mercury reductions, overfishing, and climate change on mercury (Hg) concentration in commercially and recreationally valuable species of fish. Such predictions are useful in decision-making by resource managers and public health policy makers, because mercury is a neurotoxin and the primary route of exposure of mercury to humans is via consumption of fish. Recent evidence has emerged to indicate that the current-day version of MMBMs overestimates the rate at which fish eliminate mercury from their bodies. Consequently, MMBMs overestimate food consumption by fish and underestimate Hg concentration in fish. In this perspective, we explore underlying reasons for this overestimation of Hg-elimination rate, as well as consequences and implications of this overestimation. We highlight emerging studies that distinguish species and sex as contributing factors, in addition to body weight and water temperature, that can play an important role in how quickly Hg is eliminated from fish. Future research directions for refining MMBMs are discussed.

Facets↗

USGS2006

Denitrification across landscapes and waterscapes: A synthesis

Denitrification is a critical process regulating the removal of bioavailable nitrogen (N) from natural and human-altered systems. While it has been extensively studied in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems, there has been limited communication among denitrification scientists working in these individual systems. Here, we compare rates of denitrification and controlling factors across a range of ecosystem types. We suggest that terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems in which denitrification occurs can be organized along a continuum ranging from (1) those in which nitrification and denitrification are tightly coupled in space and time to (2) those in which nitrate production and denitrification are relatively decoupled. In aquatic ecosystems, N inputs influence denitrification rates whereas hydrology and geomorphology influence the proportion of N inputs that are denitrified. Relationships between denitrification and water residence time and N load are remarkably similar across lakes, river reaches, estuaries, and continental shelves. Spatially distributed global models of denitrification suggest that continental shelf sediments account for the largest portion (44%) of total global denitrification, followed by terrestrial soils (22%) and oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs; 14%). Freshwater systems (groundwater, lakes, rivers) account for about 20% and estuaries 1% of total global denitrification. Denitrification of land-based N sources is distributed somewhat differently. Within watersheds, the amount of land-based N denitrified is generally highest in terrestrial soils, with progressively smaller amounts denitrified in groundwater, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and estuaries. A number of regional exceptions to this general trend of decreasing denitrification in a downstream direction exist, including significant denitrification in continental shelves of N from terrestrial sources. Though terrestrial soils and groundwater are responsible for much denitrification at the watershed scale, per-area denitrification rates in soils and groundwater (kg N·km −2 ·yr −1 ) are, on average, approximately one-tenth the per-area rates of denitrification in lakes, rivers, estuaries, continental shelves, or OMZs. A number of potential approaches to increase denitrification on the landscape, and thus decrease N export to sensitive coastal systems exist. However, these have not generally been widely tested for their effectiveness at scales required to significantly reduce N export at the whole watershed scale.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

USGS Field Activities 12BHM01, 12BHM02, 12BHM03, 12BHM04, and 12BHM05 on the West Florida Shelf, in February, April, May, June, and August 2012

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is absorbed by the ocean’s surface where it combines with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ). Increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere results in the absorption of more CO 2 by the ocean and, therefore, increases in the acidity of seawater. This process, known as ocean acidification, has the potential to elicit change in ecosystems and organisms by disrupting biological processes. For example, ocean acidification is a problem for marine organisms such as corals, foraminifera, and algae that precipitate calcium carbonate to form their skeletons and shells (Kleypas and others, 2006). The effects are related to corresponding changes in the carbonate saturation state (Ω), where Ω is the ratio of the ion concentration product (Ca 2+ x CO 3 2- ) to the stoichiometric aragonite solubility product (K*sp) (Langdon and Atkinson, 2005). Because pH and CO 3 2- are strongly interdependent through the inorganic carbon system, the decrease in pH will cause a proportionally greater decrease in CO 3 2- . Globally, ocean acidification is occurring faster than at any time in the last 300 million years (Broeker and others, 1979). Recent evidence indicates that individual oceans are responding at different rates, depending on physical and biological processes. For example in the Arctic Ocean, the rate of saturation state decrease was 2.1 percent per year between 1997 and 2010 (Robbins and others., 2013) in an area as large as Montana, largely because of increases in melt of ice, versus the average rate observed for the Pacific Ocean (0.36 percent per year) (Feely and others, 2012). Unfortunately, comparative data sets over multiyear time frames are often not available because time series baseline carbon information has not been collected in many oceans. Data are needed in subtropical latitudes where carbonate saturation states are already naturally low and fluctuate seasonally. These data will help construct a baseline for the assessment of future changes. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program project "R esponse of Florida Shelf Ecosystems to Climate Change " and in partnership with Kendra Daly, University of South Florida ( USF ), data on surface ocean carbonate chemistry were collected on five cruises along transects on the shallow inner west Florida shelf and northern Gulf of Mexico in 2012. Data from the 2011 cruises were also published (Robbins and others., 2013). The data collected allows the USGS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), and USF scientists to map variations in ocean chemistry including carbonate saturation states along designated tracks. The USGS also partners with NOAA and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration ( NASA ) to model air-sea flux as part of a Gulf of Mexico Carbon Synthesis project led by NASA.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska

Executive Summary Arey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides important habitat for migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. In this work, numerically modeled waves and water levels are computed under the provision of sea-level rise and changing conditions brought about by 21st century climate variability. Model results, supported by observations, are used to assess the stability of the barrier chain and spatiotemporal changes in flood patterns across fringing coastal wet sedge areas. The results aim to support studies that investigate the possibility of new biological succession trajectories and loss or increase of habitat areas.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Assessment of water quality and fecal contamination sources at Hook Pond, East Hampton, New York

Summary The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Village of East Hampton, New York, conducted a 1-year study from August 2017 to August 2018 to provide data necessary to improve understanding of the sources of nutrients and pathogens to Hook Pond watershed to allow for possible mitigation or reduction of loads. Chronic eutrophication and recent concern over harmful cyanobacteria in Hook Pond are the result of past and present land uses and a changing climate that have prompted the Village of East Hampton and local businesses to study and remediate factors contributing to the persistent loading of nutrients, organic contaminants, and pathogens. This assessment of Hook Pond, Hook Pond Dreen, and shallow groundwater provides the most comprehensive set of water-quality data to date. Interpretations presented in this study and the data on which they are based can be used to support management decisions, inform and contribute to modeling, and serve as a baseline for future assessments. Results from continuous monitoring of water temperature, specific conductance, and elevation at Hook Pond site 10 (Maidstone Club golf cart bridge), as well as ancillary weather and tidal data from nearby stations, were used to help explain seasonal and storm-related concentration variation of nitrogen, phosphorus, wastewater-indicator compounds, and pathogens. Data collected were also compared to existing historical data. Physicochemical constituents measured on a routine basis throughout the pond and along the tributary showed the spatial variability in water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and chlorophyll a and phycocyanin fluorescence. A lakebed survey was compiled based on the year-round sampling throughout the pond for future comparisons. Water-quality data from shallow groundwater at points around Hook Pond and adjacent to Hook Pond Dreen were interpreted and quantified to estimate relative contributions and species of nutrients, wastewater-indicator compounds, and microbial source tracking (MST) markers to base flow. To supplement the continuous water-surface elevation data, a single set of discharge measurements was collected under normal (nonstorm) conditions to better understand the relative contributions and dilution of surface waters by contaminated groundwater. The nutrient and physicochemical data from this study can be used in conjunction with current and future models and decision support tools to guide planned and ongoing restoration efforts, such as dredging to reduce sediment accumulation, opening a pathway to the ocean (which would change the salinity and flow dynamics of the pond and adjacent groundwater), and addressing growing concerns over cyanobacterial blooms, while serving as a baseline for measuring changes resulting from sea-level rise, climate change, and changes in nutrient loading. The microbial source tracking and indicator bacteria results can help direct efforts to reduce runoff and direct contributions of fecal contamination from dogs and waterfowl along Hook Pond Dreen. The results can also be used to assess the current state of wastewater infrastructure surrounding and contributing to Hook Pond Dreen, based on detection of human markers throughout the year and with both Bacteroides and coliphage methods.

New York↗

USGS2012

Response of the North American monsoon to regional changes in ocean surface temperature

The North American monsoon (NAM), an onshore wind shift occurring between July and September, has evolved in character during the Holocene largely due to changes in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Published paleoproxy and modeling studies suggest that prior to ∼8000 cal years BP, the NAM affected a broader region than today, extending westward into the Mojave Desert of California. Holocene proxy SST records from the Gulf of California (GoC) and the adjacent Pacific provide constraints for this changing NAM climatology. Prior to ∼8000 cal years BP, lower GoC SSTs would not have fueled northward surges of tropical moisture up the GoC, which presently contribute most of the monsoon precipitation to the western NAM region. During the early Holocene, the North Pacific High was further north and SSTs in the California Current off Baja California were warmer, allowing monsoonal moisture flow from the subtropical Pacific to take a more direct, northwesterly trajectory into an expanded area of the southwestern U.S. west of 114°W. A new upwelling record off southwest Baja California reveals that enhanced upwelling in the California Current beginning at ∼7500 cal year BP may have triggered a change in NAM climatology, focusing the geographic expression of NAM in the southwest USA into its modern core region east of ∼114°W, in Arizona and New Mexico. Holocene proxy precipitation records from the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico, including lakes, vegetation/pollen, and caves are reviewed and found to be largely supportive of this hypothesis of changing Holocene NAM climatology.

Arizona;Colorado;New Mexico;Texas;Utah↗

USGS2026

Laboratory measurements of rise velocity for individual, hydrate-free and hydrate-coated gas bubbles in water

Tracking methane transport becomes more complicated in the deep ocean where seafloor release of methane gas bubbles occurs at the high pressures and low temperatures conducive to hydrate formation on bubble surfaces. Gas hydrate formation can make the bubble surface rigid, preventing the dynamic interplay between bubble size, shape and rise velocity that gas-transport models commonly rely upon when using bubble size to predict bubble rise velocity. To better constrain gas-transport model predictions, we conducted controlled laboratory measurements of rise velocity, u z , for hydrate-free air, methane, and xenon bubbles and hydrate-coated xenon bubbles. Experimental results for u z were compared to predicted u z values from several published parameterizations used to study dissolution of gas bubbles rising in the ocean. For both hydrate-free and hydrate-coated gas bubbles, the McGinnis et al. (2006) parameterization provides the most accurate u z predictions.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2012

A water-budget model and estimates of groundwater recharge for Guam

On Guam, demand for groundwater tripled from the early 1970s to 2010. The demand for groundwater is anticipated to further increase in the near future because of population growth and a proposed military relocation to Guam. Uncertainty regarding the availability of groundwater resources to support the increased demand has prompted an investigation of groundwater recharge on Guam using the most current data and accepted methods. For this investigation, a daily water-budget model was developed and used to estimate mean recharge for various land-cover and rainfall conditions. Recharge was also estimated for part of the island using the chloride mass-balance method. Using the daily water-budget model, estimated mean annual recharge on Guam is 394.1 million gallons per day, which is 39 percent of mean annual rainfall (999.0 million gallons per day). Although minor in comparison to rainfall on the island, water inflows from water-main leakage, septic-system leachate, and stormwater runoff may be several times greater than rainfall at areas that receive these inflows. Recharge is highest in areas that are underlain by limestone, where recharge is typically between 40 and 60 percent of total water inflow. Recharge is relatively high in areas that receive stormwater runoff from storm-drain systems, but is relatively low in urbanized areas where stormwater runoff is routed to the ocean or to other areas. In most of the volcanic uplands in southern Guam where runoff is substantial, recharge is less than 30 percent of total water inflow. The water-budget model in this study differs from all previous water-budget investigations on Guam by directly accounting for canopy evaporation in forested areas, quantifying the evapotranspiration rate of each land-cover type, and accounting for evaporation from impervious areas. For the northern groundwater subbasins defined in Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982), mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 159.1 million gallons per day, which is 50 percent of mean annual rainfall, and is 42 percent greater than the recharge estimate of Camp, Dresser & McKee Inc. (1982). For the northern aquifer sectors defined in Mink (1991), which encompass most of the northern half of the island, mean annual baseline recharge computed in this study is 238.0 million gallons per day, which is 51 percent of mean annual rainfall, and is about 6 percent lower than the recharge estimate of Mink (1991). For the drought simulation performed in this study, recharge for the entire island is 259.3 million gallons per day, which is 34 percent lower than recharge computed for baseline conditions. For all aquifer sectors defined by Mink (1991), total recharge during drought conditions is 32 percent lower than mean baseline recharge. For the future land-cover water-budget simulation, which represents potential land-cover changes owing to the military relocation and population growth, estimated recharge for the entire island is nearly equal to the baseline recharge estimate that was based on 2004 land cover. Using the water-budget model, estimated recharge in the northern half of the island is most sensitive to crop coefficients and net precipitation rates—two of the water-budget parameters used in the estimation of total evapotranspiration. Estimated recharge in the southern half of the island is most sensitive to crop coefficients, net precipitation rate, and runoff-to-rainfall ratios. During March 2010 to May 2011, bulk-deposition samples from five rainfall stations on Guam were collected and analyzed for chloride. Additionally, samples from five groundwater sites were collected and analyzed for chloride. Results were used to estimate groundwater recharge using the chloride mass-balance method. Recharge estimates using this method at three bulk-deposition stations on the northern limestone plateau range from about 25 to 48 percent of rainfall. These recharge estimates are similar to the estimate of Ayers (1981) who also used this method. Recharge estimates at each bulk-deposition station, however, are lower than the baseline recharge estimate from the water-budget model used in this study. This may be because no large storms, such as tropical cyclones, passed near Guam during March 2010 to May 2011.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Spatial and temporal variability in growth of southern flounder ( Paralichthys lethostigma )

Delineation of stock structure is important for understanding the ecology and management of many fish populations, particularly those with wide-ranging distributions and high levels of harvest. Southern flounder ( Paralichthys lethostigma ) is a popular commercial and recreational species along the southeast Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico, USA. Recent studies have provided genetic and otolith morphology evidence that the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean stocks differ. Using age and growth data from four states (Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) we expanded upon the traditional von Bertalanffy model in order to compare growth rates of putative geographic stocks of southern flounder. We improved the model fitting process by adding a hierarchical Bayesian framework to allow each parameter to vary spatially or temporally as a random effect, as well as log transforming the three model parameters ( L ∞ , K , and t 0 ). Multiple comparisons of parameters showed that growth rates varied (even within states) for females, but less for males. Growth rates were also consistent through time, when long-term data were available. Since within-basin populations are thought to be genetically well-mixed, our results suggest that consistent small-scale environmental conditions (i.e., within estuaries) likely drive growth rates and should be considered when developing broader scale management plans.

Fisheries Research↗

USGS1998

West margin of North America - A synthesis of recent seismic transects

A comparison of the deep structure along nine recent transects of the west margin of North America shows many important similarities and differences. Common tectonic elements identified in the deep structure along these transects include actively subducting oceanic crust, accreted oceanic/arc (or oceanic-like) lithosphere of Mesozoic through Cenozoic ages. Cenozoic accretionary prisms, Mesozoic accretionary prisms, backstops to the Mesozoic prisms, and undivided lower crust. Not all of these elements are present along all transects. In this study, nine transects, including four crossing subduction zones and five crossing transform faults, are plotted at the same scale and vertical exaggeration (V.E. 1:1), using the above scheme for identifying tectonic elements. The four subduction-zone transects contain actively subducting oceanic crust. Cenozoic accretionary prisms, and bodies of basaltic rocks accreted in the Cenozoic, including remnants of a large, oceanic plateau in the Oregon and Vancouver Island transects. Rocks of age and composition (Eocene basalt) similar to the oceanic plateau are currently subducting in southern Alaska, where they are doubled up on top of Pacific oceanic crust and have apparently created a giant asperity, or impediment to subduction. Most of the subduction-zone transects also contain Mesozoic accretionary prisms, and two of them, Vancouver Island and Alaska, also contain thick, technically underplated bodies of late Mesozoic/early Cenozoic oceanic lithosphere, interpreted as fragments of the extinct Kula plate. In the upper crust, most of the five transform-fault transects (all in California) reflect: (1) tectonic wedging of a Mesozoic accretionary prism into a backstop, which includes Mesozoic/early Cenozoic forearc rocks and Mesozoic ophiolitic/arc basement rocks: and (2) shuffling of the subduction margin of California by strike-slip faulting. In the lower crust, they may reflect migration of the Mendocino triple junction northward (seen in rocks east of the San Andreas fault) and cessation of Farallon-plate subduction (seen in rocks west of the San Andreas fault). In northern California, lower-crustal rocks east of the San Andreas fault have oceanic-crustal velocity and thickness and contain patches of high reflectivity. They may represent basaltic rocks magmatically underplated in the wake of the migration of the Mendocino triple junction, or they may represent stalled, subducted fragments of the Farallon/Gorda plate. The latter alternative does not fit the accepted 'slabless window' model for the migration of the triple junction. This lower-crustal layer and the Moho are offset at the San Andreas and Maacama faults. In central California, a similar lower-crustal layer is observed west of the San Andreas fault. West of the continental slope, it is Pacitic oceanic crust, but beneath the continent it may represent either Pacific oceanic crust, stalled, subducted fragments (microplates) of the Farallon plate, or basaltic rocks magmatically underplated during subduction of the Pacific/Farallon ridge or during breakup of the subducted Farallon plate. The transect in southern California is only partly representative of regional structure, as the structure here is 3-dimensional. In the upper crust, a Mesozoic prism has been thrust beneath crystalline basement rocks of the San Gabriel Mountains and Mojave Desert. In the mid-crust, a bright reflective zone is interpreted as a possible 'master' decollement that can be traced from the fold-and-thrust belt of the Los Angeles basin northward to at least the San Andreas fault. A Moho depression beneath the San Gabriel Mountains is consistent with downwelling of lithospheric mantle beneath the Transverse Ranges that appears to be driving the compression across the Transverse Ranges and Los Angeles basin.

Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2009

Landslide movement in southwest Colorado triggered by atmospheric tides

Landslides are among the most hazardous of geological processes, causing thousands of casualties and damage on the order of billions of dollars annually. The movement of most landslides occurs along a discrete shear surface, and is triggered by a reduction in the frictional strength of the surface. Infiltration of water into the landslide from rainfall and snowmelt and ground motion from earthquakes are generally implicated in lowering the frictional strength of this surface. However, solid-Earth and ocean tides have recently been shown to trigger shear sliding in other processes, such as earthquakes and glacial motion. Here we use observations and numerical modelling to show that a similar processatmospheric tidescan trigger movement in an ongoing landslide. The Slumgullion landslide, located in the SanJuan Mountains of Colorado, shows daily movement, primarily during diurnal low tides of the atmosphere. According to our model, the tidal changes in air pressure cause air and water in the sediment pores to flow vertically, altering the frictional stress of the shear surface; upward fluid flow during periods of atmospheric low pressure is most conducive to sliding. We suggest that tidally modulated changes in shear strength may also affect the stability of other landslides, and that the rapid pressure variations associated with some fast-moving storm systems could trigger a similar response. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗