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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Seasonal and species-level water-use strategies and groundwater dependence in dryland riparian woodlands during extreme drought

Drought-induced groundwater decline and warming associated with climate change are primary threats to dryland riparian woodlands. We used the extreme 2012–2019 drought in southern California as a natural experiment to assess how differences in water-use strategies and groundwater dependence may influence the drought susceptibility of dryland riparian tree species with overlapping distributions. We analyzed tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen isotopes collected from two cottonwood species ( Populus trichocarpa and P . fremontii ) along the semi-arid Santa Clara River. We also modeled tree source water δ 18 O composition to compare with observed source water δ 18 O within the floodplain to infer patterns of groundwater reliance. Our results suggest that both species functioned as facultative phreatophytes that used shallow soil moisture when available but ultimately relied on groundwater to maintain physiological function during drought. We also observed apparent species differences in water-use strategies and groundwater dependence related to their regional distributions. P . fremontii was constrained to more arid river segments and ostensibly used a greater proportion of groundwater to satisfy higher evaporative demand. P . fremontii maintained ∆ 13 C at pre-drought levels up until the peak of the drought, when trees experienced a precipitous decline in ∆ 13 C. This response pattern suggests that trees prioritized maintaining photosynthetic processes over hydraulic safety, until a critical point. In contrast, P . trichocarpa showed a more gradual and sustained reduction in ∆ 13 C, indicating that drought conditions induced stomatal closure and higher water use efficiency. This strategy may confer drought avoidance for P . trichocarpa while increasing its susceptibility to anticipated climate warming.

California↗
USGS2022

Florida and Landsat

More than 21 million people call Florida home, but many more visit the peninsula each year—including a record 131 million in 2019. Residents and tourists enjoy the State’s warm weather and varied attractions amid incredibly diverse biological and natural resources. Numerous lakes and rivers, and 8,400 miles of ocean shoreline, play a prominent role, as do unique habitats like the Everglades, which are home to protected species such as the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), American crocodile ( Crocodylus acutus ), and Florida panther ( Puma concolor couguar ). The State also supports cattle, sugarcane, and citrus production—along with nearly one-half of the tree species in the United States. A changing climate is expected to bring rising sea levels and more extreme weather events. In a State where the average elevation is 100 feet above sea level, climate change could affect everything from urban shores and beaches to agriculture and forests. In addition, as cities grow, more land cover tends to shift from natural vegetation to impervious surfaces such as pavement, which can add to environmental risks such as flooding. Landsat can help Florida’s agencies, organizations, and residents monitor the State’s fragile landscapes and plan for a resilient future. Here are just a few examples of how Landsat benefits Florida.

Florida↗
USGS2018

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Errata **September 28, 2018: The purpose of a USGS Open-file report (OFR) is dissemination of information that must be released immediately to fill a public need or information that is not sufficiently refined to warrant publication in one of the other USGS series. As part of that refinement process, an error was discovered in one of the input data sets of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) that this OFR was based upon. The error involved the assignment of storage properties to “phantom cells.” Phantom cells are required for most variants of MODFLOW that use a structured finite-difference grid when individual stratigraphic layers are represented as separate layers. Using phantom cells is a common practice that allows separate model layers to be maintained without having to combine stratigraphic layers into equivalent model layers or to use an unstructured grid. Typically, phantom cell horizontal hydraulic conductivities and storage properties are set to a small number and vertical hydraulic conductivities are set to a number large enough to allow vertical flow between the vertically adjacent layers. In the RGTIHM, the specific storage properties of the phantom cells for the upper (RGTIHM layers 3 and 4), middle (RGTIHM layers 5 and 6), and lower (RGTIHM layers 7 and 8) members of the Santa Fe Group were inadvertently assigned a value of 1 feet -1 . The revision of these specific storage values to a small number (1.0 x 10 -09 feet -1 ) required additional trial-and-error model calibration and a new sensitivity analysis. After calibration, the overall model fit remained similar to the fit described in the OFR, but the fit for many individual features such as project water available for diversions at the American Canal and Acequia Madre improved due to the reduction in flow coming from lower layers. Overall, there is still an average net depletion of groundwater flow, and the conclusions of the report are not changed. The revised average annual groundwater flow depletion simulated for the period 1953-2014 is -1,480 acre-feet/year for the entire model region, and -3,660 acre-feet/year for the portion of the model in the United States. The final version of the model will be the basis of the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that will supersede this OFR. An updated Model Archive of RGTIHM is available upon request to the USGS California Water Science Center. The corrected version of the model WAS the basis for the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that SUPERSEDED this Open-File Report.** Abstract Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

New Mexico, Northern Chihuahua, Texas↗
USGS2020

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model, and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model version 2 (referred to as MF-OWHM2). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 1,090 acre-feet per year.

Chihuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2017

Spectrally monitoring the response of the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to altered precipitation regimes

Climate change is expected to impact drylands worldwide by increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. These effects have known feedbacks to the functional roles of dryland biological soil crust communities (biocrusts), which are expected to undergo significant climate-induced changes in community structure and function. Nevertheless, our ability to monitor the status and physiology of biocrusts with remote sensing is limited due to the heterogeneous nature of dryland landscapes and the desiccation tolerance of biocrusts, which leaves them frequently photosynthetically inactive and difficult to assess. To address this critical limitation, we subjected a dominant biocrust species Syntrichia caninervis to climate-induced stress in the form of small, frequent watering events, and spectrally monitored the dry mosses’ progression towards mortality. We found points of spectral sensitivity responding to experimentally-induced stress in desiccated mosses, indicating that spectral imaging is an effective tool to monitor photosynthetically inactive biocrusts. Comparing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Simple Ratio (SR), and the Normalized Pigment Chlorophyll Index (NPCI), we found NDVI minimally effective at capturing stress in precipitation-stressed dry mosses, while the SR and NPCI were highly effective. Our results suggest the strong potential for utilizing spectroscopy and chlorophyll-derived indices to monitor biocrust ecophysiological status, even when biocrusts are dry, with important implications for improving our understanding of dryland functioning.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2005

USGS California Water Science Center water programs in California

California is threatened by many natural hazards—fire, floods, landslides, earthquakes. The State is also threatened by longer-term problems, such as hydrologic effects of climate change, and human-induced problems, such as overuse of ground water and degradation of water quality. The threats and problems are intensified by increases in population, which has risen to nearly 36.8 million. For the USGS California Water Science Center, providing scientific information to help address hazards, threats, and hydrologic issues is a top priority. To meet the demands of a growing California, USGS scientific investigations are helping State and local governments improve emergency management, optimize resources, collect contaminant-source and -mobility information, and improve surface- and ground-water quality. USGS hydrologic studies and data collection throughout the State give water managers quantifiable and detailed scientific information that can be used to plan for development and to protect and more efficiently manage resources. The USGS, in cooperation with state, local, and tribal agencies, operates more than 500 instrument stations, which monitor streamflow, ground-water levels, and surface- and ground-water constituents to help protect water supplies and predict the threats of natural hazards. The following are some of the programs implemented by the USGS, in cooperation with other agencies, to obtain and analyze information needed to preserve California's environment and resources.

California↗
USGS2015

Air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region, 1960-2014

Water temperature is a basic, but important, measure of the condition of all aquatic environments, including the flowing waters in the streams that drain our landscape and the receiving waters of those streams. Climatic conditions have a strong influence on water temperature, which is therefore naturally variable both in time and across the landscape. Changes to natural water-temperature regimes, however, can result in a myriad of effects on aquatic organisms, water quality, circulation patterns, recreation, industry, and utility operations. For example, most species of fish, insects, and other organisms, as well as aquatic vegetation, are highly dependent on water temperature. Warming waters can result in shifts in floral and faunal species distributions, including invasive species and pathogens previously unable to inhabit the once cooler streams. Many chemical processes are temperature dependent, with reactions occurring faster in warmer conditions, leading to degraded water quality as contaminants are released into waterways at greater rates. Circulation patterns in receiving waters, such as bays and estuaries, can change as a result of warmer inflows from streams, thereby affecting organisms in those receiving waters. Changes in abundance of some aquatic species and (or) degradation of water quality can reduce the recreational value of water bodies as waters are perceived as less desirable for water-related activities or as sportfish become less available for anglers. Finally, increasing water temperatures can affect industry and utilities as the thermal capacity is reduced, making the water less effective for cooling purposes. Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States. Eutrophication, the enrichment of a water body with excess nutrients, has plagued the bay for decades and has led to extensive restoration efforts throughout the bay watershed. The warming of stream water can exacerbate eutrophication through increased release of nutrients from in-stream sediments, so understanding changes in stream-water temperature throughout the bay watershed is critical to resource managers seeking to restore the bay ecosystem. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses indicators that “represent the state or trend of certain environmental or societal conditions … to track and better understand the effects of changes in the Earth’s climate” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). Updates to these indicators are published biennially by the EPA. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA, has completed analyses of air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region to be included as an indicator in a future release of the EPA report.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2010

Alexandria's Eastern Harbor, Egypt: Pollen, microscopic charcoal, and the transition from natural to human-modified basin

Pollen and microscopic charcoal examined in Holocene sediment core samples record major environmental modifications affecting Alexandria's Eastern Harbor through time. We assess whether such changes on Egypt's coastal margin were influenced primarily by natural, or natural plus human, or primarily human factors. We focus on (1) the times when pollen assemblages and microscopic charcoal content changed in the core, (2) how they changed, and (3) why this occurred. The analysis takes into account the core's stratigraphy, regional climate variability, human history, and local archaeological record. Four pollenmicroscopic charcoal zones are identified. The earliest change occurred at ca. 6000 YBP, during Egypt's earlier Predynastic (Neolithic) period, coinciding with a lithologic break from sand to muddy sand. Pollen during this time indicates a transition to a much drier climate rather than effects of human activity. The second change in pollen occurred 3600-2900 YBP, during a period of continued aridity with no lithologic variation in this core interval. Pollen (cereal taxa, agricultural weeds, grape) and a sharp increase in microscopic charcoal indicate that human activity became prevalent at least 700 y before Alexander the Great's arrival in this region, and these results highlight the transition from a largely natural climatecontrolled environment to one influenced by both climate and anthropogenic activity. The third shift up-core in pollen assemblages is dated at ca. 2300 YBP, at the boundary between a sand and mud unit. It coincides with construction by the Ptolemies of the Heptastadion between Alexandria and Pharos Island. From this time onward, harbor sediment in the nearly enclosed catchment basin indicates a near-continuous record of dominant proximal human activity. ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2012

The Colorado Plateau V: research, environmental planning, and management for collaborative conservation

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers some 130,000 square miles of sparsely vegetated plateaus, mesas, canyons, arches, and cliffs in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. With elevations ranging from 3,000 to 14,000 feet, the natural systems found within the plateau are dramatically varied, from desert to alpine conditions.This volume, the fifth from the University of Arizona Press and the tenth overall, focuses on adaptation of resource management and conservation to climate change and water scarcity, protecting biodiversity through restructured energy policies, ensuring wildlife habitat connectivity across barriers, building effective conservation networks, and exploring new opportunities for education and leadership in conservation science.An informative read for people interested in the conservation and natural history of the region, the book will also serve as a valuable reference for those people engaged in the management of cultural and biological resources of the Colorado Plateau, as well as scientists interested in methods and tools for land and resource management throughout the West.

Book↗
USGS2022

Freshwater corridors in the conterminous US: A coarse-filter approach based on lake-stream networks

Maintaining regional-scale freshwater connectivity is challenging owing to the dendritic, easily fragmented structure of freshwater networks, but is essential for promoting ecological resilience under climate change. Although the importance of stream network connectivity has been recognized, lake-stream network connectivity has largely been ignored. Furthermore, protected areas are generally not designed to maintain or encompass entire freshwater networks. We applied a coarse-filter approach to identify potential freshwater corridors for diverse taxa by calculating connectivity scores for 385 lake-stream networks across the conterminous US based on network size, structure, resistance to fragmentation, and dam prevalence. We also identified 2080 disproportionately important lakes for maintaining intact networks (i.e., “hubs”; 2% of all network lakes) and analyzed the protection status of hubs and potential freshwater corridors. Just 3% of networks received high connectivity scores based on their large size and structure (medians of 1303 lakes, 498.6 km north-south stream distance), but these also contained a median of 454 dams. In contrast, undammed networks (17% of networks) were considerably smaller (medians of 6 lakes, 7.2 km north-south stream distance), indicating that the functional connectivity of the largest potential freshwater corridors in the conterminous US currently may be diminished compared to smaller, undammed networks. Network lakes and hubs were protected at similar rates nationally across different levels of protection (8-18% and 6-20%, respectively), but were generally more protected in the western US. Our results indicate that conterminous US protection of major freshwater corridors and the hubs that maintain them generally fell short of the international conservation goal of protecting an ecologically representative, well-connected set of fresh waters (≥ 17%) by 2020 (Aichi Target 11). Conservation planning efforts might consider focusing on restoring natural hydrologic connectivity at or near hubs, particularly in larger networks, less protected, or biodiverse regions, to support freshwater biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Ecology↗
USGS2006

Phosphorus geochemistry of recent sediments in the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg

Lake Winnipeg supports the largest commercial fishery on Canadian Prairies. It has been influenced by a variety of environmental forces and anthropogenic activities. To gain a better understanding of recent changes in nutrient status of the lake, it is important to reconstruct its previous history from sedimentary records. Lacustrine sediments are known to be an important sink of many dissolved and suspended substances, including phosphorus, hence, they provide a permanent historical record of changes occurring in the lake. These changes may be induced by natural factors or by anthropogenic activities in the watershed. Phosphorus profiles from dated sediment cores collected in 1999 and 1994 from the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg were investigated to determine phosphorus enrichment in recent sediments. To interpret the nutrient status and depositional conditions responsible for the trends in total phosphorus, three operationally defined forms of phosphorus (P) were determined: non-apatite inorganic P, apatite P, and organic P. Significant increases in sediment phosphorus concentrations were observed in the uppermost 20 cm of the cores and several anomalies were observed at depth. A doubling in total phosphorus relative to aluminum over the last fifty years is largely due to increases in the non-apatite inorganic fraction, suggesting that much of sedimentary phosphorus increase is attributable to changes in the nutrient status of the water column related to anthropogenic inputs. Organic phosphorus exhibits a subtle increase in the upper 20 cm of the gravity cores, likely due to increases in the primary productivity of the lake. Except for the slight increase in deeper sediments, apatite phosphorus, which is thought to be of detrital origin, remained fairly constant over the length of the cores. Anomalous spikes in phosphorus concentrations deeper in the cores, comprised mainly of the non-apatite inorganic phosphorus fraction, likely resulted from natural variation in local oxidizing conditions, possibly induced by changes in water circulation and/or changes in sediment deposition rates due to climatic variation. The results of this investigation contribute to increased understanding of the depositional history of phosphorus in the lake over the last millennium.

Lake Winnipeg↗
USGS2009

Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: A case study from Glacier National Park, Montana

Instrumental climate records suggest that summer precipitation and winter snowpack in Glacier National Park (Glacier NP), Montana, vary significantly over decadal to multidecadal time scales. Because instrumental records for the region are limited to the twentieth century, knowledge of the range of variability associated with these moisture anomalies and their impacts on ecosystems and physical processes are limited. The authors developed a reconstruction of summer (June–August) moisture variability spanning a.d. 1540–2000 from a multispecies network of tree-ring chronologies in Glacier NP. Decadal-scale drought and pluvial regimes were defined as any event lasting 10 yr or greater, and the significance of each potential regime was assessed using intervention analysis. Intervention analysis prevents single intervening years of average or opposing moisture conditions from ending what was otherwise a sustained moisture regime. The reconstruction shows numerous decadal-scale shifts between persistent drought and wet events prior to the instrumental period (before a.d. 1900). Notable wet events include a series of three long-duration, high-magnitude pluvial regimes spanning the end of the Little Ice Age ( a.d. 1770–1840). Though the late-nineteenth century was marked by a series of >10 yr droughts, the single most severe dry event occurred in the early-twentieth century ( a.d. 1917–41). These decadal-scale dry and wet events, in conjunction with periods of high and low snowpack, have served as a driver of ecosystem processes such as forest fires and glacial dynamics in the Glacier NP region. Using a suite of paleoproxy reconstructions and information from previous studies examining the relationship between climate variability and natural processes, the authors explore how such persistent moisture anomalies affect the delivery of vital goods and services provided by Glacier NP and surrounding areas. These analyses show that regional water resources and tourism are particularly vulnerable to persistent moisture anomalies in the Glacier NP area. Many of these same decadal-scale wet and dry events were also seen among a wider network of hydroclimatic reconstructions along a north–south transect of the Rocky Mountains. Such natural climate variability can, in turn, have enormous impacts on the sustainable provision of natural resources over wide areas. Overall, these results highlight the susceptibility of goods and services provided by protected areas like Glacier NP to natural climate variability, and show that this susceptibility will likely be compounded by the effects of future human-induced climate change.

Montana↗
USGS2020

Maine and Landsat

Maine is a place of rocky coastlines, of rich maritime history symbolized by lighthouses dotting the ocean bluffs, and of wondrous nature areas like the granite and spruce islands of Acadia National Park. But Maine is a place of changes, too. Climate variability has brought the state heavier and more frequent rainstorms. Summers are hotter and drier. With sea levels rising, severe storms increasingly cause floods that damage property and infrastructure. In the coming decades, Landsat satellite systems can be valuable tools in monitoring those changes and their effects on the land and in the water.

Maine↗
USGS2018

Groundwater discharge characteristics for selected streams within the Loup River Basin, Nebraska, 2014–16

Streams in the Loup River Basin are sensitive to groundwater withdrawals because of the close hydrologic connection between groundwater and surface water. Groundwater discharge is the primary component of streamflow in the Loup River Basin and constitutes more than 90 percent of streamflow in the central part of the Sand Hills. To improve the understanding of geologic controls and various climatic and land-use changes on groundwater discharge, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Upper Loup Natural Resources District (NRD), the Lower Loup NRD, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust, studied the spatial and temporal characteristics of groundwater discharge within the Loup River Basin. This report documents the methods of data collection and analysis, which include the collection of approximately 350 river miles of aerial thermal infrared imagery and continuous groundwater-level and temperature data from six streamflow-gaging stations within the Loup River Basin. The results from the stream reconnaissance and examination of aerial thermal infrared imagery demonstrated the influence of the surficial and subsurface geology on the spatial characteristics of groundwater discharge to streams in the Loup River Basin. At the headwaters of the South Loup River, streamflow is sustained and increased from focused groundwater discharge emanating from Quaternary deposits at many small (less than 0.1 cubic foot per second) focused points. The volume of water produced from this dense network of focused groundwater discharge points along the North Fork South Loup River is sufficient to provide approximately 40 percent of the flow measured at the South Loup River at Arnold, Nebraska streamflow-gaging station (USGS station 06781600) during the irrigation season. Approximately 5 miles downstream from the South Loup River at Arnold, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station, the river incises into Pliocene-age sand and gravel deposits, which provide additional groundwater discharge to the stream. The streamflow of the South Loup River increases by a factor of 5 across a 62-mile reach of the middle South Loup River. Increases in streamflow along the upper Dismal River result from a dense network of focused groundwater discharge points within semiconsolidated Pliocene-age deposits. Below the Dismal River near Thedford, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (USGS station 06775900), the Dismal River incises into the Ogallala Formation over a short reach before flowing over coarser, more permeable Quaternary-age alluvial deposits. Diffuse groundwater discharge sustains and increases the streamflow of the lower Dismal River in this reach. Groundwater sapping was evident on some stream reaches and has increased the size and flow of focused groundwater discharge points. Previous researchers have documented streambed incision and groundwater sapping on the upper Dismal River that have created and enlarged focused groundwater discharge points capturing additional groundwater. Similar processes appear to have played a role in the formation of larger focused groundwater discharge points, which sustain the flow of the middle South Loup River. The constant flow of groundwater into the South Loup River has removed finer-grained Quaternary sediments and further exposed Pliocene-age gravel deposits. Headward erosion is evident where some of the large focused groundwater discharge points have incised their own draws and terminate in bowl-like depressions away from the stream. Within the Loup River NRDs, the percentage of groundwater-irrigated land in a stream basin is one factor that affects groundwater discharge to streams. A striking example was at the South Loup River at Saint Michael, Nebr., groundwater and streamflow-gaging station (USGS station 06784000) where the shallow groundwater levels declined below the level of the stream during the middle to late part of the growing season (July to September) when consumptive groundwater use was at its peak. The South Loup River Basin above the South Loup River at Saint Michael, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station has the highest percentage of groundwater-irrigated row crops of all the basins examined in this study. Continuous groundwater and surface-water levels measured at the North Loup River at the Taylor, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (USGS station 06786000) indicate that the stream is receiving groundwater throughout the year; however, when consumptive groundwater use peaks during the middle to late part of the growing season (July to September), the difference in elevation between the groundwater level and the stream elevation decreases, which indicates a reduction in the amount of groundwater discharge received.

Nebraska↗
USGS2026

Erosion potential and flood vulnerability of streams and stream crossings at Acadia National Park, Maine

Acadia National Park has had increases in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation in recent years, leading to increased flood flows, stream erosion, and costly infrastructure damage. To improve infrastructure management in a changing climate, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, has developed multiple datasets that can help natural resource managers identify stream reaches and stream crossings that have the highest potential for erosion and flood damage within Acadia National Park. To develop these datasets, we first created a lidar-derived hydrography based on a 1-meter digital elevation model and then estimated peak flows at stream crossings and along the stream network using regional regression equations for Maine. We assessed the erosion potential of stream reaches by computing channel morphologic and hydrologic metrics associated with erosive power, such as stream steepness, topographic openness, and percent storage in the contributing watershed. Stream crossing flood vulnerability was assessed by comparing estimated peak flows to stream crossing conveyance capacities. Our results indicate that stream reaches in the headwaters of the Acadia National Park highlands such as Sargent, Penobscot, and Cadillac Mountain, have the highest erosion potential and generally coincide with reaches that have had erosion and infrastructure damage in the past. Stream crossings with the highest flood vulnerability are distributed throughout Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park, especially south of Jordan Pond, north of Sargent Mountain, and surrounding Eagle Lake. Over a quarter of the total stream crossings have insufficient information to compute flood vulnerability and are often on the parts of the stream with the highest potential for erosion. The datasets allow users to identify stream reaches with the highest erosion potential, stream crossings that are most vulnerable to flood damage, and to highlight areas where supplemental field assessments could most effectively be completed.

Maine↗
USGS2024

Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to Present

The riparian vegetation within the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter Reservation), within the Upper Gila River watershed extending from southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona, provides immense ecological and cultural value to the people of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter referred to as the Tribe/Tribal) but has experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century because of fluctuations in climate and a series of human-induced and natural disturbances. This research addresses these challenges by analyzing the riparian vegetation within the Upper Gila River watershed using aerial and satellite imagery, and by documenting the direct relationship to fluctuations in climate conditions. Results from this study would be provided to the Tribe to help the Tribe develop a restoration plan for their riparian forests. We show that the riparian vegetation has largely increased overall in greenness throughout the study period (i.e., 1985 through 2021), despite periods of drought conditions. This extends to the end of our study period particularly with native vegetation in the upper watershed. However, non-native and invasive tamarisk vegetation within much of the lower watershed has shown declining trends and increasing vegetative stress. Furthermore, these areas have experienced a large increase in wildfire presence and other disturbances. Nevertheless, Tribal restoration applications have been shown to increase native vegetation plant cover, suggesting that restoration activities have been successful overall.

Arizona, New Mexico↗