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USGS2018

A guide to calculating habitat-quality metrics to inform conservation of highly mobile species

Many metrics exist for quantifying the relative value of habitats and pathways used by highly mobile species. Properly selecting and applying such metrics requires substantial background in mathematics and understanding the relevant management arena. To address this multidimensional challenge, we demonstrate and compare three measurements of habitat quality: graph-, occupancy-, and demographic-based metrics. Each metric provides insights into system dynamics, at the expense of increasing amounts and complexity of data and models. Our descriptions and comparisons of diverse habitat-quality metrics provide means for practitioners to overcome the modeling challenges associated with management or conservation of such highly mobile species. Whereas previous guidance for applying habitat-quality metrics has been scattered in diversified tracks of literature, we have brought this information together into an approachable format including accessible descriptions and a modeling case study for a typical example that conservation professionals can adapt for their own decision contexts and focal populations. Considerations for Resource Managers Management objectives, proposed actions, data availability and quality, and model assumptions are all relevant considerations when applying and interpreting habitat-quality metrics. Graph-based metrics answer questions related to habitat centrality and connectivity, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify basic spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require the least data. Occupancy-based metrics answer questions about likelihood of persistence or colonization, are suitable for populations that undergo localized extinctions, quantify spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require a moderate amount of data. Demographic-based metrics answer questions about relative or absolute population size, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify demographic processes and population dynamics, and require the most data. More real-world examples applying occupancy-based, agent-based, and continuous-based metrics to seasonally migratory species are needed to better understand challenges and opportunities for applying these metrics more broadly.

Natural Resource Modeling↗
USGS2005

Evolution of melt-vapor surface tension in silicic volcanic systems: Experiments with hydrous melts

We evaluate the melt‐vapor surface tension (σ) of natural, water‐saturated dacite melt at 200 MPa, 950–1055°C, and 4.8–5.7 wt % H 2 O. We experimentally determine the critical supersaturation pressure for bubble nucleation as a function of dissolved water and then solve for σ at those conditions using classical nucleation theory. The solutions obtained give dacite melt‐vapor surface tensions that vary inversely with dissolved water from 0.042 (±0.003) J m −2 at 5.7 wt % H 2 O to 0.060 (±0.007) J m −2 at 5.2 wt % H 2 O to 0.073 (±0.003) J m −2 at 4.8 wt % H 2 O. Combining our dacite results with data from published hydrous haplogranite and high‐silica rhyolite experiments reveals that melt‐vapor surface tension also varies inversely with the concentration of mafic melt components (e.g., CaO, FeO total , MgO). We develop a thermodynamic context for these observations in which melt‐vapor surface tension is represented by a balance of work terms controlled by melt structure. Overall, our results suggest that cooling, crystallization, and vapor exsolution cause systematic changes in σ that should be considered in dynamic modeling of magmatic processes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

Estimating site occupancy and detection probability parameters for meso- and large mammals in a coastal eosystem

Large-scale, multispecies monitoring programs are widely used to assess changes in wildlife populations but they often assume constant detectability when documenting species occurrence. This assumption is rarely met in practice because animal populations vary across time and space. As a result, detectability of a species can be influenced by a number of physical, biological, or anthropogenic factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, topography, biological rhythms, sampling methods). To evaluate some of these influences, we estimated site occupancy rates using species-specific detection probabilities for meso- and large terrestrial mammal species on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. We used model selection to assess the influence of different sampling methods and major environmental factors on our ability to detect individual species. Remote cameras detected the most species (9), followed by cubby boxes (7) and hair traps (4) over a 13-month period. Estimated site occupancy rates were similar among sampling methods for most species when detection probabilities exceeded 0.15, but we question estimates obtained from methods with detection probabilities between 0.05 and 0.15, and we consider methods with lower probabilities unacceptable for occupancy estimation and inference. Estimated detection probabilities can be used to accommodate variation in sampling methods, which allows for comparison of monitoring programs using different protocols. Vegetation and seasonality produced species-specific differences in detectability and occupancy, but differences were not consistent within or among species, which suggests that our results should be considered in the context of local habitat features and life history traits for the target species. We believe that site occupancy is a useful state variable and suggest that monitoring programs for mammals using occupancy data consider detectability prior to making inferences about species distributions or population change.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana) abundance along the Missouri River, USA

Context: Changes in disturbance regimes, including reductions in flooding and geomorphic dynamism from dam construction and flow regulation, have facilitated invasion by eastern redcedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.), an upland tree species, in the understory of floodplain forests along the Missouri National Recreational River (MNRR). Objectives: Our aim was to determine the spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of redcedar invasion along the MNRR. Methods: We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from winter Landsat imagery to construct a time series of maps showing spatial changes in redcedar abundance and distribution from 1982 to 2017 in both riparian and upland habitats along the MNRR. We determined how environmental factors (e.g., soil drainage ability, flood recurrence interval, 1980s LULC, lateral distance to the river, and channel incision) have influenced current (2017) redcedar occurrence and abundance in riparian habitats using random forest models (RFM). Results: Time-series maps indicated that detectable redcedar cover occurred over less than 5% of the study area before 1985, increased steadily from 1985 to 2000, and more than tripled from 2000 to 2010. After 2010, redcedar abundance continued to increase in upland areas but declined following the 2011 Missouri River flood in the floodplain. RFMs indicated that river incision, distance to the river, soil drainage, 1984 LULC, and flood recurrence interval were important features influencing redcedar occurrence and abundance in the floodplain. Conclusion: Unless preventive measures are implemented, lack of floods and ongoing flow regulation will enable the continued spread of redcedar along the MNRR and other regulated rivers in the eastern Great Plains.

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota↗
USGS2018

Managing forest habitat for conservation-reliant species in a changing climate: The case of the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler

Conservation and recovery of species of concern necessitates evaluating forest habitat conditions under changing climate conditions, especially in the early stages of the delisting process. Managers must weigh implications of near-term habitat management activities within the context of changing environmental conditions and a species’ biological traits that may influence their vulnerability to changing conditions. Here we applied established population-habitat relationships based on decades of monitoring and research-management collaborations for the Kirtland’s Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ) to project potential impacts of changing environmental conditions to breeding habitat distribution, quantity, and quality in the near future. Kirtland’s warblers are habitat-specialists that nest exclusively within dense jack pine ( Pinus banksiana ) forests between ca. 5–20 years of age. Using Random Forests to predict changes in distribution and growth rate of jack pine under future scenarios, results indicate the projected distribution of jack pine will contract considerably (ca. 75%) throughout the Lake States region, U.S.A. in response to projected environmental conditions in 2099 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios regardless of climate model. Reduced suitability for jack pine regeneration across the Lake States may constrain management options, especially for creating high stem-density plantations nesting habitat. However, conditions remain suitable for jack pine regeneration within their historical and current core breeding range in northern Lower Michigan and several satellite breeding areas. Projected changes in jack pine growth rates varied within the core breeding area, but altered growth rates did not greatly alter the duration that habitat remained suitable for nesting by the Kirtland’s Warblers. These findings contribute to Kirtland’s Warbler conservation by informing habitat spatial planning of plantation management to provide a constant supply of nesting habitat based on the spatial variability of potential loss or gain of lands environmentally suitable for regenerating jack pine in the long-term.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2001

Paleomagnetic data bearing on style of Miocene deformation in the Lake Mead area, Southern Nevada

Paleomagnetic and structural data from intermediate to mafic composition lava flows and related dikes in all major blocks of the late Miocene Hamblin-Cleopatra Volcano, which was structurally dismembered during the development of the Lake Mead Fault System (LMFS), provide limits on the magnitude and sense of tilting and vertical axis rotation of crust during extension of this part of the Basin and Range province. Sinistral separation along the fault system dissected the volcano into three major blocks. The eastern, Cleopatra Lobe of the volcano is structurally the most intact section of the volcano. Normal and reverse polarity data from paleomagnetic sites collected along traverses in the Cleopatra Lobe yield an in situ grand mean of Declination (D) = 339??, Inclination (I) = +54??, ??95 = 3.1??, k = 27.2, N = 81 sites. The rocks of the central core of the volcano yield an in situ grand mean of D = 3??, I = + 59??, ??95 = 6.8??, k = 42.5, N = 11 sites (six normal, five reverse polarity). Sites collected within the western Hamblin Lobe of the volcano are exclusively of reverse polarity and yield an overall in situ mean of D = 168??, I = -58??, ??95 = 6.5??. k = 28.9, N = 18 sites. Interpretation of the paleomagnetic data in the context of the structural history of the volcano and surrounding area, considers the possibility of two different types of structural corrections. A stratigraphic tilt correction involves restoring flows to the horizontal using the present strike. This correction assumes no initial, possibly radial, dip of flows of the volcano and is considered invalid. A structural tilt correction to the data assumes that dikes of the radiating swarm associated with the volcano were originally vertical and results in block mean directions of D = 9??, I = +53??, ??95 = 3.1??, k = 27.2, and D = 58??, I = + 78??, ??95 = 6.8, k = 42.5, for the Cleopatra Lobe and the central intrusive core, respectively. The data from the Cleopatra Lobe are slightly discordant, in a clockwise sense, from expected middle- to late-Miocene field directions. The data from the volcano are not consistent with a proposed structural model of uniform, moderate magnitude, statistically significant, counter-clockwise vertical axis rotation of fault-bounded blocks during overall sinsitral displacement along the LMFS. We also analyzed dikes of the northernmost part of the Miocene Wilson Ridge hypabyssal igneous complex, strata of the Triassic Chinle Formation, and basalt flows of the Miocene West End Wash/Callville Mesa volcanic centers. Dikes in the Wilson Ridge pluton and the Triassic strata yield magnetizations with directions suggestive of statistically significant, clockwise, vertical-axis rotations consistent with local, large-magnitude shear of crustal fragments near some of the faults of the LMFS. Late Cenozoic deformation of the Hamblin-Cleopatra volcano area appears to have been non-uniform in scale and magnitude and no single structural model, involving strictly strike-slip faulting, can account for the observed paleomagnetic data. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Journal of Structural Geology↗
USGS2021

Capacity assessment for Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) and future integrated monitoring and predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary Managers of our Nation’s resources face unprecedented challenges driven by the convergence of increasing, competing societal demands and a changing climate that affects the stability, vulnerability, and predictability of those resources. To help meet these challenges, the scientific community must take advantage of all available technologies, data, and integrative Earth systems modeling capacity to better inform resource and risk management decisions. This is the overarching goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision: “By 2030, the USGS will deliver well integrated observations and predictions of the future state of natural systems—water, ecosystems, energy, minerals, hazards—at regional and national scales, working primarily with federal, state, and academic partners to develop and operate the capability” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). Providing more integrated Earth systems science and actionable information to decision makers, stakeholders, and the public requires a better understanding of the depth and distribution of existing capacity (capabilities, tools, and techniques) across the Bureau. Identifying existing capacity is also a critical first step toward gap analysis and targeted investments to increase capacity over time. The USGS formed a Capacity Assessment Team (CAT) and charged it with (1) conducting a Request for Information (RFI) to identify existing USGS expertise and activities supportive of integrated and predictive science to inform decision making, (2) developing a strategy and proof-of-concept for a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, and (3) identifying lessons learned to inform development of best practices for future capacity assessment efforts. The RFI took the form of a survey, with content guided by the science and technology needs identified in a USGS report titled “Grand Challenges for Integrated U.S. Geological Survey Science—A Workshop Report” (Jenni and others, 2017). The 44-question survey provided respondents the ability to rate their level of experience with a suite of priority disciplines, analysis and modeling approaches, technologies, and stakeholder engagement strategies and to enter optional narrative text for supporting context. An introductory portion focused on general science capacity assessment, followed by three sections targeting capabilities related to the foundational components of EarthMAP: (1) data and information integration, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information. The survey results provided a high-level snapshot of USGS capacity in the targeted areas. Respondents (1,035 individuals) represented approximately 13 percent of the USGS across all mission areas and regions. Seventy-four percent of the respondents held a science-focused position title and the remainder had position titles in information technology, computer science, management, administrative, or other (contractors, volunteers, emeritus, and unknown). To provide greater insight into respondent capabilities and activities, information from the U.S. Department of the Interior and USGS enterprise information systems were used to further characterize topical expertise and organizational associations of survey respondents. To address the ongoing need to assess the Bureau’s capacity to address integrated predictive science priorities, the CAT developed a software-based proof-of-concept called the Integrated Science Assessment Information Database (iSAID) for assembling various information sources together toward making the full extent of USGS capabilities and scientific assets available for routine capacity assessment. This proof-of-concept is intended to serve as a catalyst for further development. The process of implementing the EarthMAP capacity assessment survey, analyzing survey responses, and developing the proof-of-concept resulted in lessons learned, findings, and recommendations. Example scenarios throughout the report demonstrate how capacity assessment data can inform science planning. Three overarching findings and recommendations are: (1) Finding: Capacity is limited in some critical disciplines, skills, and technology applications, but “sufficient” depends on the question and the need relative to availability at a given point in time. Recommendation: Develop an on-demand capacity assessment framework that enables rapid identification and evaluation of existing and available expertise to support decision needs as they arise. (2) Finding: Institutional barriers and lack of awareness constrain the ability of USGS staff to adopt new technologies, collaborate across administrative boundaries, and deliver actionable information to stakeholders in a timely manner. However, these barriers are not universally experienced. Recommendation: Pursue more targeted inquiries to clarify which institutional barriers are obstructing the adoption of new technologies and approaches or the sharing of expertise and equipment across organizational and regional boundaries. These inquiries should inform USGS leadership, mission areas, and regions whether policies can be revised or whether a lack of understanding is creating perceived obstacles. Highlight cases when staff have successfully adopted new technologies and approaches to advance EarthMAP priorities and provide actionable information in a timely manner to spread awareness of how perceived obstacles can be navigated and overcome when appropriate. (3) Finding: Examples of people and projects integrating across disciplines and scales and applying advanced approaches to meet complex stakeholder needs exist. Such examples provide transfer value across the spectrum from approach to decision making. Many projects, already underway, appear to meet elements of the EarthMAP vision, and the USGS has people who can provide leadership in multiple types of specific integrated science efforts. Recommendation: Use these findings as a starting point for near-term strategic planning for integrated science. Highlight, incentivize, and build on existing interdisciplinary predictive science and information delivery activities across the USGS to advance toward further realization of an EarthMAP capacity. The CAT efforts to develop and assess existing USGS capacity to advance the EarthMAP vision revealed a fundamental challenge for not only this effort but any effort to assess existing capacity: A considerable amount of thought, time, and effort is required to survey and assess capabilities and tools available to support a given need, yet best results are still likely to provide an incomplete assessment. To better meet the frequent need to assess capabilities, tools, products, and projects that address an expressed strategic priority, the CAT proposes the concept of an on-demand capacity assessment framework supported by a software package that dynamically pulls and integrates information from existing USGS information systems and public domain registries. Although existing USGS enterprise information systems currently lack the structure, cross-system consistency, interoperability, and stability to support a continuously updated capacity assessment capability, we identify reasonable near-term steps to improve the utility of information gathered on expertise and project capacity and to improve the consistency and completeness of information and the ability of USGS systems to share that information. The ability to search and characterize this information will make future assessments of capacity faster, more complete, more efficient, and more targeted. This approach would grow the Bureau’s capacity knowledge over time, iteratively improving the ability to access, leverage, and synthesize existing capabilities and assets as well as identify and fill critical gaps. The greatest promise for developing integrated science could lie in linking across existing projects and expertise to create a multi-project capacity for addressing large, complex environmental issues.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Effects of an early mass-flowering crop on wild bee communities and traits in power line corridors vary with blooming plants and landscape context

Context Power line corridors have been repeatedly assessed as habitat for wild bees; however, few studies have examined them as bee habitat relative to nearby crop fields and surrounding landscape context. Objectives We surveyed bee communities in power line corridors near to and isolated from lowbush blueberry fields in two landscape contexts in Maine, U.S.A. We examined the influences of blooming plant abundance and diversity and bee life-history traits including sociality, nesting preference, and body size. Methods We surveyed wild bees and blooming plants in power line corridors from 2013 to 2015. We calculated landscape composition surrounding sites at multiple scales and gathered bee trait information from the literature. We assessed differences in bee communities owing to landscape context with generalized linear models. Results We collected 125 wild bee species and observed a rare plant-pollinator relationship within power line corridors. We found greater bee abundance and species richness throughout a complex, resource-rich landscape, while mass-flowering lowbush blueberry fields enhanced bee species richness only in a simple, resource-poor landscape. Landscape composition and blooming plant diversity varied with landscape context, though only landscape composition influenced bee communities. Solitary and ground-nesting species were more sensitive to landscape context than social or cavity-nesting species. Conclusions Power line corridors provide crucial refugia for crop pollinating wild bees in agricultural landscapes with resource-poor natural habitat, while bees may selectively forage in power line corridors within agricultural landscapes containing resource-rich natural habitat. We found high-quality forage within corridors; quantifying nesting resources could clarify corridor use by wild bees.

Maine↗
USGS2021

The history of surface-elevation paradigms in mangrove biogeomorphology

Positioned in the intertidal zone, mangrove forests are a key model ecosystem with which to observe and test biogeomorphological concepts. Understanding how mangroves interact with their intertidal environment, particularly tidal inundation, is important if we are to assess their vulnerability or resilience to accelerated sea-level rise. While various biogeomorphological processes are now well studied in mangroves, these are not new concepts, and researchers often do not adequately describe their historical origins. This chapter discusses the historical context of two key paradigms in mangrove biogeomorphology: (1) the distribution of mangroves across the intertidal zone is controlled primarily by tidal inundation and (2) mangroves can adjust their elevation relative to the tidal frame through a combination of minerogenic and biogenic processes. The first paradigm had been noted as early as 350 BC, and studied quantitatively since at least the 1920s in Malaysia. The concept of “Inundation Classes” introduced at that time is still used by mangrove restoration practitioners today. The second paradigm has its roots in debates over whether mangroves are “land builders” or “land consolidators” in the early 20th century, and our view of this paradigm is strongly influenced by the geomorphic setting in which we work. It is important for us to understand the historical underpinnings of mangrove science and how they have shaped the paradigms that we use today. At a time when the mangrove research field is rapidly expanding, it is also important to acknowledge the intellectual contribution of researchers upon which we build today's science.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2020

GIS-Modeling of island hopping through the Philippines demonstrates trade-offs migrant grey-faced buzzards during oceanic crossings

Migration can be costly with consequences that can influence population trajectories. These costs and consequences are especially heightened during over-water travels, which can be high-risk events for birds. We created spatial models to evaluate potential migratory responses of “oceanic”, island-hopping grey-faced buzzards that encounter variation in landscape parameters and weather as they move through and out of the Philippine archipelago. We constrained the modeled routes to enter the island chain at Basco and to use one of four potential exit points in the south of the country, either Balabac, Bongao, Balut Island, or Cape San Agustin. We used all possible combinations of our three external parameters (stopover sites, water crossings and wind direction) to model alternative migratory routes for each of the four exit points (n = 20 migratory routes). Modeled grey-faced buzzard routes were between 1,582 and 2,970 km. Routes overlapped over eastern and central Luzon, along a leading line created by the Sierra Madre Mountains. Routes also overlapped and suggested unavoidable over-water crossings between Mindoro and Palawan, Negros and Zamboanga del Norte, and Leyte and Surigao. Our models suggest that the optimal migratory strategy for these birds is to find the shortest route to an exit point with the greatest possible access to stopover habitats and fewest open-water crossings under wind resistance. Understanding how each of these external factors affected the geography and characteristics of the migratory routes helps us to understand the context for different migratory strategies of birds that face dangerous open-water crossings on migration.

Journal of Engineering, Environment and Agricultur↗
USGS2024

Cold blood in warming waters: Effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitats in a changing climate

Objective In a changing climate, the effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on water temperature and thermal habitat suitability for Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser desotoi , listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, are not well understood. Hence, we incorporated these factors into thermal habitat models to forecast how Gulf Sturgeon may be affected by wide‐ranging climate change scenarios in 2024–2074. Methods Using data from the Choctawhatchee River, Florida, we developed precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected air–water temperature models, compared their accuracy with that of conventional air–water temperature models used in fisheries management, and projected future Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitat suitability for normal physiological functioning and fieldwork (i.e., population sampling and telemetry surgeries) in summer (May–August) under 16 climate change scenarios. Result Precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected models were more accurate than conventional air–water temperature models (mean improvement in adjusted R 2 = +0.45; range = +0.09 to +0.75). Water temperature was projected to warm at widely variable rates across climate change scenarios encompassing different air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater regimes. Importantly, Gulf Sturgeon summer aggregation areas were cooler and influenced more by precipitation and groundwater and less by air temperature than were non‐aggregation areas. If precipitation and groundwater—as drivers of cooling—become warm in a changing climate, summer aggregation areas were projected to exhibit thermal habitat degradation equivalent to or greater than that of non‐aggregation areas. Conclusion Our results add hydrological context to the premise that aggregation areas provide cool water and energetic savings for Gulf Sturgeon during summer, underscoring the importance of protecting these habitats through groundwater conservation, water quality monitoring, and riparian/watershed habitat management. Our findings indicate that identifying thermally appropriate times for fieldwork activities will be increasingly important and time‐restricted as climate change intensifies. However, our research provides managers with a portfolio of water temperature models and an accurate, cost‐effective, management‐relevant approach to forecasting thermal habitat conditions for Gulf Sturgeon and other species in a changing climate.

Alabama, Florida↗
USGS2025

C4 photosynthesis, trait spectra, and the fast-efficient phenotype

It has been 60 years since the discovery of C 4 photosynthesis, an event that rewrote our understanding of plant adaptation, ecosystem responses to global change, and global food security. Despite six decades of research, one aspect of C 4 photosynthesis that remains poorly understood is how the pathway fits into the broader context of adaptive trait spectra, which form our modern view of functional trait ecology. The C 4 CO 2 -concentrating mechanism supports a general C 4 plant phenotype capable of fast growth and high resource-use efficiencies. The fast-efficient C 4 phenotype has the potential to operate at high productivity rates, while allowing for less biomass allocation to root production and nutrient acquisition, thereby providing opportunities for the evolution of novel trait covariances and the exploitation of new ecological niches. We propose the placement of the C 4 fast-efficient phenotype near the acquisitive pole of the world-wide leaf economic spectrum, but with a pathway-specific span of trait space, wherein selection shapes both acquisitive and conservative adaptive strategies. A trait-based perspective of C 4 photosynthesis will open new paths to crop improvement, global biogeochemical modeling, the management of invasive species, and the restoration of disturbed ecosystems, particularly in grasslands.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2007

Net emissions of CH4 and CO2 in Alaska: Implications for the region's greenhouse gas budget

We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to study the net methane (CH4) fluxes between Alaskan ecosystems and the atmosphere. We estimated that the current net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from Alaskan soils are ???3 Tg CH 4/yr. Wet tundra ecosystems are responsible for 75% of the region's net emissions, while dry tundra and upland boreal forests are responsible for 50% and 45% of total consumption over the region, respectively. In response to climate change over the 21st century, our simulations indicated that CH 4 emissions from wet soils would be enhanced more than consumption by dry soils of tundra and boreal forests. As a consequence, we projected that net CH4 emissions will almost double by the end of the century in response to high-latitude warming and associated climate changes. When we placed these CH4 emissions in the context of the projected carbon budget (carbon dioxide [CO2] and CH4) for Alaska at the end of the 21st century, we estimated that Alaska will be a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere of 69 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr, that is, a balance between net methane emissions of 131 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr and carbon sequestration of 17 Tg C/yr (62 Tg CO2 equivalents/yr). ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2018

Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate

Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeled the relationship between climate and the potential distribution of native biomes across the Hawaiian archipelago to provide a first approximation of potential native biome shifts under end-of-century projected climate. Our correlative model circumvents the lack of data necessary for the parameterization of mechanistic vegetation models in isolated and data-poor islands. We identified locations consistently expected to remain the same in terms of the native biome compatibility by the end of the century with a robust evaluation of sources of uncertainty in our projections. Our results show that, despite large differences in climate projections considered, 35% of the areas considered are consistently projected to maintain their current compatibility to native biomes. By integrating our native biome compatibility projections with maps of current actual cover, we identified areas ideal for long-term habitat conservation and restoration. Our modeling approach can be used with relatively simple data; offers multiple forms of projection confidence estimates, model calibration, and variable selection routines; and is compatible with ensemble projections. This method is not only applicable to potential native cover, as done in this study, but to any set of vegetation classes that are related to environmental predictors available for modeling.

Hawaii↗
USGS2010

Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2007

This map illustrates more than one century of global seismicity in the context of global plate tectonics and the Earth's physiography. Primarily designed for use by earth scientists and engineers interested in earthquake hazards of the 20th and early 21st centuries, this map provides a comprehensive overview of strong earthquakes since 1900. The map clearly identifies the location of the 'great' earthquakes (M8.0 and larger) and the rupture area, if known, of the M8.3 or larger earthquakes. The earthquake symbols are scaled proportional to the moment magnitude and therefore to the area of faulting, thus providing a better understanding of the relative sizes and distribution of earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.5 to 9.5. Plotting the known rupture area of the largest earthquakes also provides a better appreciation of the extent of some of the most famous and damaging earthquakes in modern history. All earthquakes shown on the map were carefully relocated using a standard earth reference model and standardized location procedures, thereby eliminating gross errors and biases in locations of historically important earthquakes that are often found in numerous seismicity catalogs.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2017

Characterization of the juvenile green turtle ( Chelonia mydas ) microbiome throughout an ontogenetic shift from pelagic to neritic habitats

The gut microbiome of herbivorous animals consists of organisms that efficiently digest the structural carbohydrates of ingested plant material. Green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ) provide an interesting model of change in these microbial communities because they undergo a pronounced shift from a surface-pelagic distribution and omnivorous diet to a neritic distribution and herbivorous diet. As an alternative to direct sampling of the gut, we investigated the cloacal microbiomes of juvenile green turtles before and after recruitment to neritic waters to observe any changes in their microbial community structure. Cloacal swabs were taken from individual turtles for analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequences using Illumina sequencing. One fecal sample was also obtained, allowing for a preliminary comparison with the bacterial community of the cloaca. We found significant variation in the juvenile green turtle bacterial communities between pelagic and neritic habitats, suggesting that environmental and dietary factors support different bacterial communities in green turtles from these habitats. This is the first study to characterize the cloacal microbiome of green turtles in the context of their ontogenetic shifts, which could provide valuable insight into the origins of their gut bacteria and how the microbial community supports their shift to herbivory.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS2006

Understanding the genetic effects of recent habitat fragmentation in the context of evolutionary history: Phylogeography and landscape genetics of a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus)

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to urbanization are the most pervasive threats to biodiversity in southern California. Loss of habitat and fragmentation can lower migration rates and genetic connectivity among remaining populations of native species, reducing genetic variability and increasing extinction risk. However, it may be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric fragmentation due to previous natural geological and climatic changes. To address these challenges, we examined the phylogenetic and population genetic structure of a flightless insect endemic to cismontane southern California, Stenopelmatus 'mahogani' (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae). Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequence data suggest that diversification across southern California began during the Pleistocene, with most haplotypes currently restricted to a single population. Patterns of genetic divergence correlate with contemporary urbanization, even after correcting for (geographical information system) GIS-based reconstructions of fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Theoretical simulations confirm that contemporary patterns of genetic structure could be produced by recent urban fragmentation using biologically reasonable assumptions about model parameters. Diversity within populations was positively correlated with current fragment size, but not prehistoric fragment size, suggesting that the effects of increased drift following anthropogenic fragmentation are already being seen. Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity can hinder a population's ability to adapt to ecological perturbations commonly associated with urbanization, such as habitat degradation, climatic changes and introduced species. Consequently, our results underscore the importance of preserving and restoring landscape connectivity for long-term persistence of low vagility native species. Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular Ecology↗