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Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets”

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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

Short-term response of methane fluxes and methanogen activity to water table and soil warming manipulations in an Alaskan peatland

Growing season CH 4 fluxes were monitored over a two year period following the start of ecosystem-scale manipulations of water table position and surface soil temperatures in a moderate rich fen in interior Alaska. The largest CH 4 fluxes occurred in plots that received both flooding (raised water table position) and soil warming, while the lowest fluxes occurred in unwarmed plots in the lowered water table treatment. A combination of treatment and soil hydroclimate variables explained more than 70% of the variation in ln-transformed CH 4 fluxes, with mean daily water table position representing the strongest predictor. We used quantitative PCR of the α -subunit of mcr operon to explore the influence of soil climate manipulations on methanogen abundances. Methanogen abundances were greatest in warmed plots, and showed a positive relationship with mean daily CH 4 fluxes. Our results show that water table manipulations that led to soil inundation (flooding) had a stronger effect on CH 4 fluxes than water table drawdown. Seasonal CH 4 fluxes increased by 80–300% under the combined wetter and warmer soil climate treatments. Thus, while warming is expected to increase CH 4 emissions from Alaskan wetlands, higher water table positions caused by increases in precipitation or disturbances such as permafrost thaw that lead to thermokarst and flooding in wetlands will stimulate CH 4 emissions beyond the effects of soil warming alone. Consequently, we argue that modeling the effects of climate change on Alaskan wetland CH 4 emissions needs to consider the interactive effects of soil warming and water table position on CH 4 production and transport.

Alaska↗

Sulfur species behavior in soil organic matter during decomposition

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a primary re??servoir of terrestrial sulfur (S), but its role in the global S cycle remains poorly understood. We examine S speciation by X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy to describe S species behavior during SOM decomposition. Sulfur species in SOM were best represented by organic sulfide, sulfoxide, sulfonate, and sulfate. The highest fraction of S in litter was organic sulfide, but as decomposition progressed, relative fractions of sulfonate and sulfate generally increased. Over 6-month laboratory incubations, organic sulfide was most reactive, suggesting that a fraction of this species was associated with a highly labile pool of SOM. During humification, relative concentrations of sulfoxide consistently decreased, demonstrating the importance of sulfoxide as a reactive S phase in soil. Sulfonate fractional abundance increased during humification irrespective of litter type, illustrating its relative stability in soils. The proportion of S species did not differ systematically by litter type, but organic sulfide became less abundant in conifer SOM during decomposition, while sulfate fractional abundance increased. Conversely, deciduous SOM exhibited lesser or nonexistent shifts in organic sulfide and sulfate fractions during decomposition, possibly suggesting that S reactivity in deciduous litter is coupled to rapid C mineralization and independent of S speciation. All trends were consistent in soils across study sites. We conclude that S reactivity is related to spqciation in SOM, particularly in conifer forests, and S species fractions in SOM change, during decomposition. Our data highlight the importance of intermediate valence species (sulfoxide and sulfonate) in the pedochemical cycling of organic bound S. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

Lightning‐driven electric fields measured in the lower ionosphere: Implications for transient luminous events

Transient luminous events above thunderstorms such as sprites, halos, and elves require large electric fields in the lower ionosphere. Yet very few in situ measurements in this region have been successfully accomplished, since it is typically too low in altitude for rockets and satellites and too high for balloons. In this article, we present some rare examples of lightning‐driven electric field changes obtained at 75–130 km altitude during a sounding rocket flight from Wallops Island, Virginia, in 1995. We summarize these electric field changes and present a few detailed case studies. Our measurements are compared directly to a 2D numerical model of lightning‐driven electromagnetic fields in the middle and upper atmosphere. We find that the in situ electric field changes are smaller than predicted by the model, and the amplitudes of these fields are insufficient for elve production when extrapolated to a 100 kA peak current stroke. This disagreement could be due to lightning‐induced ionospheric conductivity enhancement, or it might be evidence of flaws in the electromagnetic pulse mechanism for elves.

Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics↗

Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift

[1] The Hellenic Arc of Greece is the most seismically active part of Europe, but little is know about its mechanics. We modeled deformation along the arc using a finite element model. The model was intended to capture large‐scale 3‐D structure of Nubian plate subduction beneath the Aegean block and its deformational consequences. The shape of the interface was developed using mapped traces at the surface and earthquake hypocenters at depth. Model block motions were constrained by recent compilations of GPS velocity vectors. We simulated a 10 ka period of convergence between Nubia and the Aegean and calculated the strain field in the overriding plate as well as the spatial distribution and orientation of differential stress (∣ σ 1 − σ 3 ∣). From these calculations we derived testable quantities such as the expected seismic moment rate on the interplate contact, uplift pattern, and distribution of strain modes. Our relatively simple model broadly reproduced observed uplift patterns, earthquake activity, and loci of extension and contraction. The model showed a localization of uplift near the island of Crete, where the fastest Aegean uplift rates are well documented. Comparison of calculated expected seismic moment and observed earthquake catalogs implies a nearly fully coupled interplate contact. On the basis of our modeling results, we suggest that south Aegean deformation is driven primarily by the fast moving (∼33 mm a −1 ) Aegean upper plate overriding a nearly stalled (∼5 mm a −1 ) Nubian lower plate. This tectonic setting thus more closely resembles a continental thrust than it does a typical oceanic subduction zone.

Aegean Sea, Hellenic Arc↗

Implications of postseismic gravity change following the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake from the regional harmonic analysis of GRACE intersatellite tracking data

We report Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations of coseismic displacements and postseismic transients from the great Sumatra-Andaman Islands (thrust event; Mw ???9.2) earthquake in December 2004. Instead of using global spherical harmonic solutions of monthly gravity fields, we estimated the gravity changes directly using intersatellite range-rate data with regionally concentrated spherical Slepian basis functions every 15-day interval. We found significant step-like (coseismic) and exponential-like (postseismic) behavior in the time series of estimated coefficients (from May 2003 to April 2007) for the spherical Slepian function's. After deriving coseismic slip estimates from seismic and geodetic data that spanned different time intervals, we estimated and evaluated postseismic relaxation mechanisms with alternate asthenosphere viscosity models. The large spatial coverage and uniform accuracy of our GRACE solution enabled us to clearly delineate a postseismic transient signal in the first 2 years of postearthquake GRACE data. Our preferred interpretation of the long-wavelength components of the postseismic avity change is biviscous viscoelastic flow. We estimated a transient viscosity of 5 ??17 Pa s and a steady state viscosity of 5 ?? 1018 - 1019 Pa s. Additional years of the GRACE observations should provide improved steady state viscosity estimates. In contrast to our interpretation of coseismic gravity change, the prominent postearthquake positive gravity change around the Nicobar Islands is accounted for by seafloor uplift with less postseismic perturbation in intrinsic density in the region surrounding the earthquake. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Postearthquake relaxation after the 2004 M6 Parkfield, California, earthquake and rate-and-state friction

An unusually complete set of measurements (including rapid rate GPS over the first 10 days) of postseismic deformation is available at 12 continuous GPS stations located close to the epicenter of the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake. The principal component modes for the relaxation of the ensemble of those 12 GPS stations were determined. The first mode alone furnishes an adequate approximation to the data. Thus, the relaxation at all stations can be represented by the product of a common temporal function and distinct amplitudes for each component (north or east) of relaxation at each station. The distribution in space of the amplitudes indicates that the relaxation is dominantly strike slip. The temporal function, which spans times from about 5 min to 900 days postearthquake, can be fit by a superposition of three creep terms, each of the form ??l loge(1 + t/??l), with characteristic times ??, = 4.06, 0.11, and 0.0001 days. It seems likely that what is actually involved is a broad spectrum of characteristic times, the individual components of which arise from afterslip on different fault patches. Perfettini and Avouac (2004) have shown that an individual creep term can be explained by the spring-slider model with rate-dependent (no state variable) friction. The observed temporal function can also be explained using a single spring-slider model (i.e., single fault patch) that includes rate-and-state-dependent friction, a single-state variable, and either of the two commonly used (aging and slip) state evolution laws. In the latter fits, the rate-and-state friction parameter b is negative.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Rocky Mountain evolution: Tying Continental Dynamics of the Rocky Mountains and Deep Probe seismic experiments with receiver functions

In this study, we have determined the crustal structure using three different receiver function methods using data collected from the northern transect of the Continental Dynamics of the Rocky Mountains (CD-ROM) experiment. The resulting migrated image and crustal thickness determinations confirm and refine prior crustal thickness measurements based on the CD-ROM and Deep Probe experiment data sets. The new results show a very distinct and thick lower crustal layer beneath the Archean Wyoming province. In addition, we are able to show its termination at 42??N latitude, which provides a seismic tie between the CD-ROM and Deep Probe seismic experiments and thus completes a continuous north-south transect extending from New Mexico into Alberta, Canada. This new tie is particularly important because it occurs close to a major tectonic boundary, the Cheyenne belt, between an Archean craton and a Proterozoic terrane. We used two different stacking techniques, based on a similar concept but using two different ways to estimate uncertainties. Furthermore, we used receiver function migration and common conversion point (CCP) stacking techniques. The combined interpretation of all our results shows (1) crustal thinning in southern Wyoming, (2) strong northward crustal thickening beginning in central Wyoming, (3) the presence of an unusually thick and high-velocity lower crust beneath the Wyoming province, and (4) the abrupt termination of this lower crustal layer north of the Cheyenne belt at 42??N latitude. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data: 2. A two-step approach to combine seismic and geodetic data sets

We present a new method to combine static and wavefield data to image earthquake ruptures. Our combined inversion is a two-step procedure, following the work of Hernandez et al. (1999), and takes into account the differences between the resolutions of the two data sets. The first step consists of an inversion of the static field, which yields a map of slip amplitude. This inversion exploits a special irregular grid that takes into account the resolution of the static data. The second step is an inversion of the radiated wavefield; it results in the determination of the time evolution of slip on the fault. In the second step, the slip amplitude is constrained to resemble the static slip amplitude map inferred from the GPS inversion. Using this combined inversion, we study the source process of the 2004 M6 Parkfield, California, earthquake. We conclude that slip occurred in two main regions of the fault, each of which displayed distinct rupture behaviors. Slip initiated at the hypocenter with a very strong bilateral burst of energy. Here, slip was localized in a narrow area approximately 10 km long, the rupture velocity was very fast (???3.5 km/s), and slip only lasted a short period of time (<1 s). Then the rupture proceeded to a wider region 12-20 km northwest of the hypocenter. Here, the earthquake developed in a more moderated way: the rupture velocity slowed to ???3.0 km/s and slip lasted longer (1-2 s). The maximum slip amplitude was 0.45 m. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Premonitory acoustic emissions and stick-slip in natural and smooth-faulted Westerly granite

A stick-slip event was induced in a cylindrical sample of Westerly granite containing a preexisting natural fault by loading at constant confining pressure of 150 MPa. Continuously recorded acoustic emission (AE) data and computer tomography (CT)-generated images of the fault plane were combined to provide a detailed examination of microscale processes operating on the fault. The dynamic stick-slip event, considered to be a laboratory analog of an earthquake, generated an ultrasonic signal that was recorded as a large-amplitude AE event. First arrivals of this event were inverted to determine the nucleation site of slip, which is associated with a geometric asperity on the fault surface. CT images and AE locations suggest that a variety of asperities existed in the sample because of the intersection of branch or splay faults with the main fault. This experiment is compared with a stick-slip experiment on a sample prepared with a smooth, artificial saw-cut fault surface. Nearly a thousand times more AE were observed for the natural fault, which has a higher friction coefficient (0.78 compared to 0.53) and larger shear stress drop (140 compared to 68 MPa). However at the measured resolution, the ultrasonic signal emitted during slip initiation does not vary significantly between the two experiments, suggesting a similar dynamic rupture process. We propose that the natural faulted sample under triaxial compression provides a good laboratory analogue for a field-scale fault system in terms of the presence of asperities, fault surface heterogeneity, and interaction of branching faults. ?? 2009.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Hydrometeor-enhanced tephra sedimentation: Constraints from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Uncertainty remains on the origin of distal mass deposition maxima observed in many recent tephra fall deposits. In this study the link between ash aggregation and the formation of distal mass deposition maxima is investigated through reanalysis of tephra fallout from the Mount St. Helens 18 May 1980 (MSH80) eruption. In addition, we collate all the data needed to model distal ash sedimentation from the MSH80 eruption cloud. Four particle size subpopulations were present in distal fallout with modes at 2.2 Φ, 4.2 Φ, 5.9 Φ, and 8.3 Φ. Settling rates of the coarsest subpopulation closely matched predicted single‐particle terminal fall velocities. Sedimentation of particles <100 μ m was greatly enhanced, predominantly through aggregation of a particle subpopulation with modal diameter 5.9 ± 0.2 Φ (19 ± 3 μ m). Mammatus on the MSH80 cloud provided a mechanism to transport very fine ash particles, with predicted atmospheric lifetimes of days to weeks, from the upper troposphere to the surface in a matter of hours. In this mechanism, ash particles initiate ice hydrometeor formation high in the troposphere. Subsequently, the volcanic cloud rapidly subsides as mammatus develop from increased particle loading and cloud base sublimation. Rapid fallout occurs as the cloud passes through the melting level in a process analogous to snowflake aggregation. Aggregates sediment en masse and form the distal mass deposition maxima observed in many recent volcanic ash fall deposits. This work provides a data resource that will facilitate tephra sedimentation modeling and allow model intercomparisons.

Washington↗

Regional three-dimensional seismic velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle of northern California

We present a three-dimensional (3D) tomographic model of the P wave velocity (Vp) structure of northern California. We employed a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm that incorporates a finite-difference travel time calculator and spatial smoothing constraints. Arrival times from earthquakes and travel times from controlled-source explosions, recorded at network and/or temporary stations, were inverted for Vp on a 3D grid with horizontal node spacing of 10 to 20 km and vertical node spacing of 3 to 8 km. Our model provides an unprecedented, comprehensive view of the regional-scale structure of northern California, putting many previously identified features into a broader regional context and improving the resolution of a number of them and revealing a number of new features, especially in the middle and lower crust, that have never before been reported. Examples of the former include the complex subducting Gorda slab, a steep, deeply penetrating fault beneath the Sacramento River Delta, crustal low-velocity zones beneath Geysers-Clear Lake and Long Valley, and the high-velocity ophiolite body underlying the Great Valley. Examples of the latter include mid-crustal low-velocity zones beneath Mount Shasta and north of Lake Tahoe. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Inducing in situ, nonlinear soil response applying an active source

[1] It is well known that soil sites have a profound effect on ground motion during large earthquakes. The complex structure of soil deposits and the highly nonlinear constitutive behavior of soils largely control nonlinear site response at soil sites. Measurements of nonlinear soil response under natural conditions are critical to advancing our understanding of soil behavior during earthquakes. Many factors limit the use of earthquake observations to estimate nonlinear site response such that quantitative characterization of nonlinear behavior relies almost exclusively on laboratory experiments and modeling of wave propagation. Here we introduce a new method for in situ characterization of the nonlinear behavior of a natural soil formation using measurements obtained immediately adjacent to a large vibrator source. To our knowledge, we are the first group to propose and test such an approach. Employing a large, surface vibrator as a source, we measure the nonlinear behavior of the soil by incrementally increasing the source amplitude over a range of frequencies and monitoring changes in the output spectra. We apply a homodyne algorithm for measuring spectral amplitudes, which provides robust signal-to-noise ratios at the frequencies of interest. Spectral ratios are computed between the receivers and the source as well as receiver pairs located in an array adjacent to the source, providing the means to separate source and near-source nonlinearity from pervasive nonlinearity in the soil column. We find clear evidence of nonlinearity in significant decreases in the frequency of peak spectral ratios, corresponding to material softening with amplitude, observed across the array as the source amplitude is increased. The observed peak shifts are consistent with laboratory measurements of soil nonlinearity. Our results provide constraints for future numerical modeling studies of strong ground motion during earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Tracking magma volume recovery at Okmok Volcano using GPS and an unscented kalman filter

Changes beneath a volcano can be observed through position changes in a GPS network, but distinguishing the source of site motion is not always straightforward. The records of continuous GPS sites provide a favorable data set for tracking magma migration. Dense campaign observations usually provide a better spatial picture of the overall deformation field, at the expense of an episodic temporal record. Combining these observations provides the best of both worlds. A Kalman filter provides a means for integrating discrete and continuous measurements and for interpreting subtle signals. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a nonlinear method for time‐dependent observations. We demonstrate the application of this technique to deformation data by applying it to GPS data collected at Okmok volcano. Seven years of GPS observations at Okmok are analyzed using a Mogi source model and the UKF. The deformation source at Okmok is relatively stable at 2.5 km depth below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera, which means the surface deformation is caused by changes in the strength of the source. During the 7 years of GPS observations more than 0.5 m of uplift has occurred, a majority of that during the time period January 2003 to July 2004. The total volume recovery at Okmok since the last eruption in 1997 is ∼60–80%. The UKF allows us to solve simultaneously for the time‐dependence of the source strength and for the location without a priori information about the source. 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Alaska↗

Seismic wave triggering of nonvolcanic tremor, episodic tremor and slip, and earthquakes on Vancouver Island

[1] We explore the physical conditions that enable triggering of nonvolcanic tremor and earthquakes by considering local seismic activity on Vancouver Island, British Columbia during and immediately after the arrival of large-amplitude seismic waves from 30 teleseismic and 17 regional or local earthquakes. We identify tremor triggered by four of the teleseismic earthquakes. The close temporal and spatial proximity of triggered tremor to ambient tremor and aseismic slip indicates that when a fault is close to or undergoing failure, it is particularly susceptible to triggering of further events. The amplitude of the triggering waves also influences the likelihood of triggering both tremor and earthquakes such that large amplitude waves triggered tremor in the absence of detectable aseismic slip or ambient tremor. Tremor and energy radiated from regional/local earthquakes share the same frequency passband so that tremor cannot be identified during these smaller, more frequent events. We confidently identify triggered local earthquakes following only one teleseism, that with the largest amplitude, and four regional or local events that generated vigorous aftershock sequences in their immediate vicinity. Earthquakes tend to be triggered in regions different from tremor and with high ambient seismicity rates. We also note an interesting possible correlation between large teleseismic events and episodic tremor and slip (ETS) episodes, whereby ETS events that are “late” and have built up more stress than normal are susceptible to triggering by the slight nudge of the shaking from a large, distant event, while ETS events that are “early” or “on time” are not.

Vancouver Island↗

Constraints on the stress state of the San Andreas fault with analysis based on core and cuttings from SAFOD drilling phases 1 and 2

Analysis of field data has led different investigators to conclude that the San Andreas Fault (SAF) has either anomalously low frictional sliding strength ( μ < 0.2) or strength consistent with standard laboratory tests ( μ > 0.6). Arguments for the apparent weakness of the SAF generally hinge on conceptual models involving intrinsically weak gouge or elevated pore pressure within the fault zone. Some models assert that weak gouge and/or high pore pressure exist under static conditions while others consider strength loss or fluid pressure increase due to rapid coseismic fault slip. The present paper is composed of three parts. First, we develop generalized equations, based on and consistent with the Rice (1992) fault zone model to relate stress orientation and magnitude to depth‐dependent coefficient of friction and pore pressure. Second, we present temperature‐ and pressure‐dependent friction measurements from wet illite‐rich fault gouge extracted from San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) phase 1 core samples and from weak minerals associated with the San Andreas Fault. Third, we reevaluate the state of stress on the San Andreas Fault in light of new constraints imposed by SAFOD borehole data. Pure talc ( μ ≈0.1) had the lowest strength considered and was sufficiently weak to satisfy weak fault heat flow and stress orientation constraints with hydrostatic pore pressure. Other fault gouges showed a systematic increase in strength with increasing temperature and pressure. In this case, heat flow and stress orientation constraints would require elevated pore pressure and, in some cases, fault zone pore pressure in excess of vertical stress.

California↗

Rupture parameters of the 2003 Zemmouri (M w 6.8), Algeria, earthquake from joint inversion of interferometric synthetic aperture radar, coastal uplift, and GPS

We study the surface deformation associated with the 21 May 2003 (M w = 6.8) Zemmouri (Algeria) earthquake, the strongest seismic event felt in the Algiers region since 1716. The thrust earthquake mechanism and related surface deformation revealed an average 0.50 m coastal uplift along ??55-km-long coastline. We obtain coseismic interferograms using Envisat advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) (IS2) and RADARSAT standard beam (ST4) data from both the ascending and descending orbits of Envisat satellite, whereas the RADARSAT data proved useful only in the descending mode. While the two RADARSAT interferograms cover the earthquake area, Envisat data cover only the western half of the rupture zone. Although the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) coherence in the epicenter area is poor, deformation fringes are observed along the coast in different patches. In the Boumerdes area, the maximum coseismic deformation is indicated by the high gradient of fringes visible in all interferograms in agreement with field measurements (tape, differential GPS, leveling, and GPS). To constrain the earthquake rupture parameters, we model the interferograms and uplift measurements using elastic dislocations on triangular fault patches in an elastic and homogeneous half-space. We invert the coseismic slip using first, a planar surface and second, a curved fault, both constructed from triangular elements using Poly3Dinv program that uses a damped least square minimization. The best fit of InSAR, coastal uplift, and GPS data corresponds to a 65-km-long fault rupture dipping 40?? to 50?? SE, located at 8 to 13 km offshore with a change in strike west of Boumerdes from N60??-65?? to N95??-105??. The inferred rupture geometry at depth correlates well with the seismological results and may have critical implications for the seismic hazard assessment of the Algiers region. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Volcano-tectonic implications of 3-D velocity structures derived from joint active and passive source tomography of the island of Hawaii

We present a velocity model of the onshore and offshore regions around the southern part of the island of Hawaii, including southern Mauna Kea, southeastern Hualalai, and the active volcanoes of Mauna Loa, and Kilauea, and Loihi seamount. The velocity model was inverted from about 200,000 first-arrival traveltime picks of earthquakes and air gun shots recorded at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Reconstructed volcanic structures of the island provide us with an improved understanding of the volcano-tectonic evolution of Hawaiian volcanoes and their interactions. The summits and upper rift zones of the active volcanoes are characterized by high-velocity materials, correlated with intrusive magma cumulates. These high-velocity materials often do not extend the full lengths of the rift zones, suggesting that rift zone intrusions may be spatially limited. Seismicity tends to be localized seaward of the most active intrusive bodies. Low-velocity materials beneath parts of the active rift zones of Kilauea and Mauna Loa suggest discontinuous rift zone intrusives, possibly due to the presence of a preexisting volcanic edifice, e.g., along Mauna Loa beneath Kilauea's southwest rift zone, or alternatively, removal of high-velocity materials by large-scale landsliding, e.g., along Mauna Loa's western flank. Both locations also show increased seismicity that may result from edifice interactions or reactivation of buried faults. New high-velocity regions are recognized and suggest the presence of buried, and in some cases, previously unknown rift zones, within the northwest flank of Mauna Loa, and the south flanks of Mauna Loa, Hualalai, and Mauna Kea. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hawaii↗

Seismicity and deformation induced by magma accumulation at three basaltic volcanoes

We analyzed the evolution of volcano‐tectonic (VT) seismicity and deformation at three basaltic volcanoes (Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Piton de la Fournaise) during phases of magma accumulation. We observed that the VT earthquake activity displays an accelerating evolution at the three studied volcanoes during the time of magma accumulation. At the same times, deformation rates recorded at the summit of Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes were not accelerating but rather tend to decay. To interpret these observations, we propose a physical model describing the evolution of pressure produced by the accumulation of magma into a reservoir. This variation of pressure is then used to force a simple model of damage, where damage episodes are equivalent to earthquakes. This model leads to an exponential increase of the VT activity and to an exponential decay of the deformation rate during accumulation phases. Seismicity and deformation data are well fitted by such an exponential model. The time constant, deduced from the exponential increase of the seismicity, is in agreement with the time constant predicted by the model of magma accumulation. This VT activity can thus be a direct indication of the accumulation of magma at depth, and therefore can be seen as a long‐term precursory phenomenon, at least for the three studied basaltic volcanoes. Unfortunately, it does not allow the prediction of the onset of future eruptions, as no diverging point (i.e., critical time) is present in the model.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗