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Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in Minnesota

Log-Pearson type III flood-frequency analyses were made of annual series peak-flow records from 246 gaging stations on unregulated streams in Minnesota having watersheds ranging in area from 0.08 to 2,520 square miles. These flood discharges were related to watershed and climatic characteristics by using multiple-regression techniques. On the basis of this preliminary regression analysis of the frequency-analysis results, the data from these stations were grouped into four hydrologically distinct regions for the State. Regression analyses were performed on data from each region relating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval flood discharges to basin characteristics. The resulting regression equations, which may be used to estimate flood flows at ungaged sites, relate basin characteristics (contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, percent of basin covered by water, percent of basin covered by lakes, and mean annual runoff) to estimated flood flows. Different basin characteristics are significant for each of the four regions. Drainage area was found to be most significant and is included in all regional equations. Standard errors of estimate of the regression equations ranged from 33 to 60 percent.

Minnesota↗

Water resources of the Wind River Indian Reservation, Wyoming

Existing data were used in conjunction with onsite measurements to evaluate the water resources on the Wind River Indian Reservation, Wyoming. The reservation is located mainly in the Wind River drainage basin. Ground water is used for public- supply, domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, and potentially for irrigation. Deposits of Quaternary age provide water for domestic and public-supply uses. Median well yields from different types of Quaternary deposits ranged from 6 to 20 gallons per minute. The Wind River Formation of Tertiary age is a major source of water for domestic and public-supply uses; well yields ranged from 0.1 to 350 gallons per minute. For the Tensleep Sandstone and Madison Limestone of Paleozoic age, wells might yield as much as 1,000 gallons per minute. The dissolved-solids concentration of water from the Little Wind River and Popo Agie River flood-plain alluvium near mountains was generally less than 400 mg/L (milligrams per liter), but with increasing distance from mountains, the range was about 600 to about 750 mg/L. Dissolved-solids concentrations of water in the Wind River Formation ranged from 211 to 5,110 mg/L. Streams provide most water used for irrigation. Discharge records from streamflow-gaging stations indicate flow characteristics of streams on the reservation are extremely variable. Average annual runoff was 122 to 1,150 acre-feet per square mile on perennial streams with gaging stations. Near the mountains, most perennial streams had dissolved-solids concentrations less than 200 mg/L, and with increasing distance from the mountains, concentrations were about 400 to 600 mg/L.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Marine heatwaves affect breeding, diet and population size but not body condition of a range-edge little penguin colony

Significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) developed along the Western Australian coast in 1999 and 2011. Despite ecosystem losses and the southwards occurrence of many tropical fish species during and after the extreme MHW in 2011, there have been few studies on the effects of this MHW on seabirds, and no biological impacts related to the 1999 MHW have been reported. Using data from 1986-2019, we investigated the impacts of these events on breeding outcomes, body condition, diet composition, population size and mortality of little penguins on Penguin Island, in the temperate waters off Western Australia. Breeding outcomes were negatively impacted by the MHWs but body condition was not. Diet composition changed after the MHW, with sandy sprat Hyperlophus vittatus , the penguins’ typical major prey component, replaced by scaly mackerel Sardinella lemuru , a tropical fish species. Using an open robust design analysis that accounts for imperfect capture probabilities and staggered annual arrival and departure dates, we found that the population decreased by 80% following the 2011 MHW. Finally, more penguins died from starvation or from novel protozoal parasitic infections in 2011 and 2012 that were potentially introduced with the changed diet. This research highlights that the temporal and spatial influence of MHWs on seabirds depends on several factors. Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of a prey species’ response can be very localised and have significant impacts on avian predators. There are no obvious ways to mediate climate effects, but perhaps measures taken to reduce any synergistic impacts on prey abundance, particularly during MHW events, could be effective.

Penguin Island↗

Precipitation, temperature, groundwater-level elevation, streamflow, and potential flood storage trends within the Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity River basins in Texas through 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), analyzed streamflow trends and streamflow-related variables through 2017 in seven important water-supply basins to provide information that can help water managers with the USACE and river authorities make future water management decisions. The primary purpose of this report is to document trends in long-term streamflow data at 114 selected USGS streamflow-gaging stations and 36 simulated reservoir-inflow stations in 7 river basins primarily in Texas: Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity. In this report, trends were considered statistically significant if their p -values were less than or equal to 0.05 ( p -value ≤0.05). Streamflow data selected for temporal trend analyses included annual minimum streamflow, annual peak streamflow, and streamflow volume. Precipitation, air temperature, and groundwater-level-elevation data were analyzed for trends that may help to explain changes observed in the streamflow statistics. Basins were divided into sections along county lines for precipitation analyses. Streamflow volumes were analyzed for associations with potential flood storage. The potential flood storage, defined as the difference between maximum storage and normal storage, was computed for each dam from the National Inventory of Dams database and accumulated over time based on the completion date of the dam. Precipitation and air temperature trends were analyzed for each of the eight climate divisions (High Plains, Trans-Pecos, Low Rolling Hills, Edwards Plateau, North Central Texas, South Central Texas, East Texas, and Upper Coast). Results of precipitation trend analyses indicated moderate upward trends in the Upper Coast and East Texas Climate Divisions analyzed on an annual time step from 1900 through 2017. These two climate divisions are in the eastern and southeastern parts of the State, and they receive more mean annual precipitation (45.88 and 46.09 inches, respectively) than the other climate divisions. The results of air temperature analyses indicated upward trends in annual mean air temperature within all climate divisions, with a mean slope of 0.02 degree Fahrenheit per year, or 1 degree every 50 years. Within the Brazos River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated that precipitation amounts are most likely increasing in the lower and middle sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow and in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume were indicated at 7 of the 15 stations in the upper sections of the basin. The lower sections of the basin had mostly downward trends in annual minimum streamflow, whereas upward trends in annual minimum streamflow were indicated in the upper sections of the basin. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were indicated at many of the stations in the upper sections of the basin. At the same seven stations in the upper sections of the basin where there were downward trends in annual streamflow, there were also downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. The data from the same seven stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 13,006,394 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1900 and 2010 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Brazos River Basin. Within the Colorado River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated no trends in the basin. Downward trends in annual streamflow were indicated at 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin, whereas no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the lower section of the basin, one station that was operated as a continuous streamflow-gaging station through 2017 had a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow, and another station (operated through 2007) had an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow. In the upper sections of the basin, data from seven stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from six stations indicated downward trends. Data from 18 stations in the upper sections of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Thirteen of the 16 stations in the upper sections of the basin with data that indicated downward trends in annual streamflow also have data that indicated downward trends in the ratio of streamflow volume to precipitation volume. Data from the same 13 stations indicated negative associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume and downward trends in the ratio of annual streamflow volume to potential flood storage volume. With the known addition of 7,193,147 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1891 and 2014 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have decreased in the upper sections of the Colorado River Basin. Within the Big Cypress Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on annual, seasonal, and monthly time steps indicated almost no trends in the basin as defined in this report. However, the annual precipitation p -value only slightly exceeded the p -value threshold for a statistically significant trend. Given the upward trend in precipitation in the East Texas Climate Division, which includes the Big Cypress Basin, and the low p -value for annual precipitation within the basin, precipitation in the basin may be increasing over time. Two annual streamflow trends, one upward and one downward, were in the upper parts of the basin. Data from USGS streamflow-gaging station 07346000 Big Cypress Bayou near Jefferson, Texas, indicated an upward trend in annual minimum streamflow and a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. The station is immediately downstream from Lake O’ the Pines; presumably, minimums have increased because of regulated releases, and annual peaks have decreased because of storage from the lake for flood control. Despite the known addition of 2,737,154 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1898 and 2011 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Big Cypress Basin, except for within the drainage area for the farthest upstream station on the main stem downstream from Mount Pleasant, Texas. Within the Guadalupe River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated an upward trend in the lower section of the basin, but no trends in annual streamflow were indicated in the lower section of the basin. In the upper section of the basin, data from 1 of the 13 stations indicated an upward trend in annual streamflow. Data from 6 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated a trend in annual minimum streamflow with 4 upward and 2 downward trends. Data from 2 of the 13 stations in the upper section of the basin indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 2,016,534 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1849 and 2013 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Guadalupe River Basin. Within the Neches River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in the basin. None of the data from stations analyzed in the Neches River Basin indicated annual trends in streamflow despite upward trends in annual precipitation within the basin. Data from 9 of the 19 stations analyzed in the basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Data from one of the simulated-inflow stations indicated a downward trend in annual minimum streamflow into Sam Rayburn Reservoir. Data from two stations indicated downward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one small subbasin indicated an upward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 4,839,609 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1888 and 2008 in the subbasins analyzed, there have not been widespread reductions in streamflow volumes in the Neches River Basin. Within the Sulphur River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated a moderate upward trend within the basin. Data from only one of the stations, the simulated inflow to Jim Chapman Lake, indicated an annual upward trend in streamflow despite an upward trend in annual precipitation throughout the basin. Data from three of the six stations in the Sulphur River Basin indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow, and data from one of the six stations indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Despite the known addition of 6,933,361 acre-feet of potential flood storage between 1904 and 2006 in the subbasins analyzed, streamflow volumes have not decreased in the Sulphur River Basin. Within the Trinity River Basin, results of precipitation trend analyses on an annual time step indicated upward trends in most sections of the basin. Data from 8 of the 36 stations analyzed for trends in annual streamflow indicated upward trends, and all 8 stations are in the upper sections of the basin. None of the data from stations in the lower sections of the basin indicated trends in annual streamflow. Data from 16 of the 36 stations indicated upward trends in annual minimum streamflow. Upward trends in annual minimum streamflow could be the result of managed reservoir releases in combination with wastewater treatment plant releases in the large Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in the upper sections of the basin. All the trends in annual peak streamflow were in the sections of the basin that include the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Data from two stations, one USGS streamflow-gaging station and one simulated-inflow station, indicated upward trends in annual peak streamflow, and data from one streamflow-gaging station indicated a downward trend in annual peak streamflow. Of the basins included in this study, the Trinity River Basin has the second largest amount of potential flood storage of 8,947,349 acre-feet from dams added between 1890 and 2013. Eleven stations in the Trinity River Basin had positive associations between potential flood storage volume and annual streamflow volume, indicating that annual streamflow increases as potential flood storage increases. Data from 7 of the 11 stations also indicated upward trends in annual streamflow. The positive associations may be the result of increases in minimum streamflow, which could be the result of any combination of managed reservoir releases, wastewater treatment plant releases, or increased runoff from urbanized areas, particularly in the urbanized area of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Texas↗

Evaluation of the ground-water flow model for northern Utah Valley, Utah, updated to conditions through 2002

This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah, that originally simulated ground-water conditions during 1947-1980 and was updated to include conditions estimated for 1981-2002. Estimates of annual recharge to the ground-water system and discharge from wells in the area were added to the original ground-water flow model of the area. The files used in the original transient-state model of the ground-water flow system in northern Utah Valley were imported into MODFLOW-96, an updated version of MODFLOW. The main model input files modified as part of this effort were the well and recharge files. Discharge from pumping wells in northern Utah Valley was estimated on an annual basis for 1981-2002. Although the amount of average annual withdrawals from wells has not changed much since the previous study, there have been changes in the distribution of well discharge in the area. Discharge estimates for flowing wells during 1981-2002 were assumed to be the same as those used in the last stress period of the original model because of a lack of new data. Variations in annual recharge were assumed to be proportional to changes in total surface-water inflow to northern Utah Valley. Recharge specified in the model during the additional stress periods varied from 255,000 acre-feet in 1986 to 137,000 acre-feet in 1992. The ability of the updated transient-state model to match hydrologic conditions determined for 1981-2002 was evaluated by comparing water-level changes measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements made in February, March, or April were available for 39 wells in the modeled area during all or part of 1981-2003. In most cases, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level change from 1981 to 2002 simulated by the updated model reasonably matched the measured change. The greater-than-normal precipitation that occurred during 1982-84 resulted in period-of-record high water levels measured in many of the observation wells in March 1984. The model-computed water levels at the end of 1982-84 also are among the highest for the period. Both measured and computed water levels decreased during the period representing ground-water conditions from 1999 to 2002. Precipitation was less than normal during 1999-2002. The ability of the model to adequately simulate climatic extremes such as the wetter-than-normal conditions of 1982-84 and the drier-than-normal conditions of 1999-2002 indicates that the annual variation of recharge to the ground-water system based on streamflow entering the valley, which in turn is primarily dependent upon precipitation, is appropriate but can be improved. The updated transient-state model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley can be improved by making revisions on the basis of currently available data and information.

Utah↗

Analysis of Dissolved Selenium Loading from Surface Water and Groundwater to Sweitzer Lake, Colorado, 2006-07

Elevated selenium concentrations in streams are a water-quality concern in western Colorado. Sweitzer Lake was placed on the State 303(d) list as impaired with respect to dissolved selenium. In Colorado, the Water Quality Control Division of the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment is required to develop total maximum daily loads of selenium for the 303(d) list segments. The U.S. Geological survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, summarized selenium loading from surface water and ground water to Sweitzer Lake to support the total maximum daily loads development process. Surface-water and groundwater data were collected to quantify selenium concentrations and loads to Sweitzer Lake from October 2006 to October 2007. These data were used to determine the amount of selenium load (pounds annually) that would need to be reduced for the contributing sources (surface water and groundwater) to meet the State chronic aquatic-life standard of 4.6 micrograms per liter for dissolved selenium, herein referred to as 'a load reduction.' Selenium concentration data were also compared to the State acute aquatic-life standard of 18.4 micrograms per liter for dissolved selenium. Both surface-water and groundwater-quality samples collected during this study were found to exceed the chronic standard. Surface-water quantity and quality data were collected at Garnet Canal Diversion and Diversion Drain. Groundwater flux data were collected at 10 seepage-meter sires in Sweitzer Lake, and groundwater-quality data were collected at a groundwater seep and inferred from a January 2007 sample collected at Garnet Canal Diversion. Selenium concentrations and loads were greater at Garnet Canal Diversion than those observed at Diversion Drain. Approximately one-third of Garnet Canal Diversion-s Streamflow originates from Loutzenhizer Arroyo. Selenium concentrations observed during previous studies at Loutzenhizer Arroyo indicate high selenium concentrations and high selenium loads. All selenium concentrations in samples from Garnet Canal Diversion were greater than the chronic standard and were less that the acute standard during the irrigation season. Seventy-three percent of the annual selenium load at Garnet Canal Diversion would need to be reduced in order to meet the chronic standard. All daily mean selenium concentrations and selenium-concentration samples were greater than the chronic standard at Diversion Drain, but less than the acute standard during the irrigation season. Forty percent of the mean annual selenium loads at Diversion Drain would need to be reduced in order to meet the chronic standard. Estimated groundwater selenium loads and reductions of selenium loads to Sweitzer Lake were estimated using ranges of lake-bottom areas with positive groundwater flux and groundwater selenium concentrations. Estimated annual groundwater selenium load reductions ranged from 0.900 pound of the 1.17 pounds of annual load to 86.3 points of the 88.3 pounds of annual load for the selenium concentration scenarios over the range of lake-bottom areas. Groundwater selenium load and load reductions determined from this study identify the probably minimum and maximum values for these parameters. Further data collection and analysis could refine the range of groundwater selenium loads and load reductions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water-quality conditions near the confluence of the Snake and Boise Rivers, Canyon County, Idaho

Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) have been established under authority of the Federal Clean Water Act for the Snake River-Hells Canyon reach, on the border of Idaho and Oregon, to improve water quality and preserve beneficial uses such as public consumption, recreation, and aquatic habitat. The TMDL sets targets for seasonal average and annual maximum concentrations of chlorophyll- a at 14 and 30 micrograms per liter, respectively. To attain these conditions, the maximum total phosphorus concentration at the mouth of the Boise River in Idaho, a tributary to the Snake River, has been set at 0.07 milligrams per liter. However, interactions among chlorophyll- a , nutrients, and other key water-quality parameters that may affect beneficial uses in the Snake and Boise Rivers are unknown. In addition, contributions of nutrients and chlorophyll- a loads from the Boise River to the Snake River have not been fully characterized. To evaluate seasonal trends and relations among nutrients and other water-quality parameters in the Boise and Snake Rivers, a comprehensive monitoring program was conducted near their confluence in water years (WY) 2009 and 2010. The study also provided information on the relative contribution of nutrient and sediment loads from the Boise River to the Snake River, which has an effect on water-quality conditions in downstream reservoirs. State and site-specific water-quality standards, in addition to those that relate to the Snake River-Hells Canyon TMDL, have been established to protect beneficial uses in both rivers. Measured water-quality conditions in WY2009 and WY2010 exceeded these targets at one or more sites for the following constituents: water temperature, total phosphorus concentrations, total phosphorus loads, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH, and chlorophyll- a concentrations (WY2009 only). All measured total phosphorus concentrations in the Boise River near Parma exceeded the seasonal target of 0.07 milligram per liter. Data collected during the study show seasonal differences in all measured parameters. In particular, surprisingly high concentrations of chlorophyll- a were measured at all three main study sites in winter and early spring, likely due to changes in algal populations. Discharge conditions and dissolved orthophosphorus concentrations are key drivers for chlorophyll- a on a seasonal and annual basis on the Snake River. Discharge conditions and upstream periphyton growth are most likely the key drivers for chlorophyll- a in the Boise River. Phytoplankton growth is not limited or driven by nutrient availability in the Boise River. Lower discharges and minimal substrate disturbance in WY2010 in comparison with WY2009 may have caused prolonged and increased periphyton and macrophyte growth and a reduced amount of sloughed algae in suspension in the summer of WY2010. Chlorophyll- a measured in samples commonly is used as an indicator of sestonic algae biomass, but chlorophyll- a concentrations and fluorescence may not be the most appropriate surrogates for algae growth, eutrophication, and associated effects on beneficial uses. Assessment of the effects of algae growth on beneficial uses should evaluate not only sestonic algae, but also benthic algae and macrophytes. Alternatively, continuous monitoring of dissolved oxygen detects the influence of aquatic plant respiration for all types of algae and macrophytes and is likely a more direct measure of effects on beneficial uses such as aquatic habitat. Most measured water-quality parameters in the Snake River were statistically different upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Boise River. Higher concentrations and loads were measured at the downstream site (Snake River at Nyssa) than the upstream site (Snake River near Adrian) for total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total nitrogen, dissolved nitrite and nitrate, suspended sediment, and turbidity. Higher dissolved oxygen concentrations and pH were measured at the upstream site (Snake River near Adrian) than the downstream site (Snake River at Nyssa). Contributions from the Boise River measured at Parma do not constitute all of the increase in nutrient and sediment loads in the Snake River between the upstream and downstream sites. Surrogate models were developed using a combination of continuously monitored variables to estimate concentrations of nutrients and suspended sediment when samples were not possible. The surrogate models explained from 66 to 95 percent of the variability in nutrient and suspended sediment concentrations, depending on the site and model. Although the surrogate models could not always represent event-based changes in modeled parameters, they generally were successful in representing seasonal and annual patterns. Over a longer period, the surrogate models could be a useful tool for measuring compliance with state and site-specific water-quality standards and TMDL targets, for representing daily and seasonal variability in constituents, and for assessing effects of phosphorus reduction measures within the watershed.

Idaho↗

Hydrogeologic framework, groundwater movement, and water budget in the Chambers-Clover Creek watershed and vicinity, Pierce County, Washington

This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system in the Chambers-Clover Creek Watershed and vicinity, and includes descriptions of the geology and hydrogeologic framework; groundwater recharge and discharge; groundwater levels and flow directions; seasonal groundwater level fluctuations; interactions between aquifers and the surface-water system; and a water budget. The study area covers about 706 square miles in western Pierce County, Washington, and extends north to the Puyallup River, southwest to the Nisqually River, and is bounded on the south and east by foothills of the Cascade Range and on the west by Puget Sound. The area is underlain by a northwest-thickening sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits which overlie sedimentary and volcanic bedrock units that crop out in the foothills along the southern and southeastern margin of the study area. Geologic units were grouped into 11 hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers, confining units, and an underlying bedrock unit. A surficial hydrogeologic unit map was developed and used with well information from 450 drillers’ logs to construct 6 hydrogeologic sections, and unit extent and thickness maps. Groundwater in unconsolidated glacial and interglacial aquifers generally flows to the northwest towards Puget Sound, and to the north and northeast towards the Puyallup River. These generalized flow patterns likely are complicated by the presence of low permeability confining units that separate discontinuous bodies of aquifer material and act as local groundwater-flow barriers. Water levels in wells completed in the unconsolidated hydrogeologic units show seasonal variations ranging from less than 1 to about 50 feet. The largest groundwater-level fluctuation (78 feet) observed during the monitoring period (March 2007–September 2008) was in a well completed in the bedrock unit. Synoptic streamflow measurements made in September 2007 and July 2008 indicated a total groundwater discharge to streams in the study area of 87,310 and 92,160 acre-feet per year, respectively. The synoptic streamflow measurements show a complex pattern of gains and losses to streamflows that varies throughout the study area, and appears to be influenced in places by local topography. Groundwater discharge occurs at numerous springs in the area and the total previously reported discharge of springs in the area is approximately 80,000 acre-feet per year. There are, in addition, many unmeasured springs and the total spring discharge in the area is unknown. The water-budget area (432 mi 2 located within the larger study area) received an annual average (September1, 2006, to August 31, 2008) of about 1,025,000 acre-ft or about 45 inches of precipitation a year. About 44 percent of precipitation enters the groundwater system as recharge. Almost one-half of this recharge (49 percent) discharges to the Puyallup and Nisqually Rivers and leaves the groundwater system as submarine groundwater discharge to Puget Sound. The remaining groundwater recharge discharges to streams (20 percent) and springs (18 percent) or is withdrawn from wells (13 percent)

Washington↗

Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011

This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.

Arkansas↗

Small-stream flood investigations in Minnesota, October 1958 to September 1980

An investigation of flood flows from small drainage basins in Minnesota is being made to aid in the design of bridges, culverts and other highway drainage structures. Results of the investigation provide peak-flow data on streams generally with drainage areas less than 200 square miles, placing particular emphasis on those with drainage areas lees than 10 square miles. Basin parameters being investigated for their effect on floods are drainage area, length of main stream, slope of main channel, basin altitude, forest cover, and storage area. All of the 187 gaging stations included in the report are equipped with crest-stage gages. In addition, 4 stations are equipped to record stage and precipitation continuously. The relative magnitude of flood flows for different hydrologic regions is shown in graphs that relate maximum discharge to drainage area. Station records contain location, drainage area, records available, type of gage, on-site structure elevations, bankfull stage, and annual maximum stage and discharge data. These data, with annual peak data from continuous-record stations, form the basis for statewide flood-frequency studies.

Minnesota↗

Mapping Evapotranspiration Units in the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

Accurate estimates of ground-water discharge are crucial in the development of a water budget for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system study area. One common method used throughout the southwestern United States is to estimate ground-water discharge from evapotranspiration (ET). ET is a process by which water from the Earth's surface is transferred to the atmosphere. The volume of water lost to the atmosphere by ET can be computed as the product of the ET rate and the acreage of vegetation, open water, and moist soil through which ET occurs. The procedure used in the study groups areas of similar vegetation, water, and soil conditions into different ET units, assigns an average annual ET rate to each unit, and computes annual ET from each ET unit within the outer extent of potential areas of ground-water discharge. Data sets and the procedures used to delineate the ET-unit map used to estimate ground-water discharge from the study area and a qualitative assessment of the accuracy of the map are described in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Relation of watershed setting and stream nutrient yields at selected sites in central and eastern North Carolina, 1997-2008

Data collected between 1997 and 2008 at 48 stream sites were used to characterize relations between watershed settings and stream nutrient yields throughout central and eastern North Carolina. The focus of the investigation was to identify environmental variables in watersheds that influence nutrient export for supporting the development and prioritization of management strategies for restoring nutrient-impaired streams. Nutrient concentration data and streamflow data compiled for the 1997 to 2008 study period were used to compute stream yields of nitrate, total nitrogen (N), and total phosphorus (P) for each study site. Compiled environmental data (including variables for land cover, hydrologic soil groups, base-flow index, streams, wastewater treatment facilities, and concentrated animal feeding operations) were used to characterize the watershed settings for the study sites. Data for the environmental variables were analyzed in combination with the stream nutrient yields to explore relations based on watershed characteristics and to evaluate whether particular variables were useful indicators of watersheds having relatively higher or lower potential for exporting nutrients. Data evaluations included an examination of median annual nutrient yields based on a watershed land-use classification scheme developed as part of the study. An initial examination of the data indicated that the highest median annual nutrient yields occurred at both agricultural and urban sites, especially for urban sites having large percentages of point-source flow contributions to the streams. The results of statistical testing identified significant differences in annual nutrient yields when sites were analyzed on the basis of watershed land-use category. When statistical differences in median annual yields were noted, the results for nitrate, total N, and total P were similar in that highly urbanized watersheds (greater than 30 percent developed land use) and (or) watersheds with greater than 10 percent point-source flow contributions to streamflow had higher yields relative to undeveloped watersheds (having less than 10 and 15 percent developed and agricultural land uses, respectively) and watersheds with relatively low agricultural land use (between 15 and 30 percent). The statistical tests further indicated that the median annual yields for total P were statistically higher for watersheds with high agricultural land use (greater than 30 percent) compared to the undeveloped watersheds and watersheds with low agricultural land use. The total P yields also were higher for watersheds with low urban land use (between 10 and 30 percent developed land) compared to the undeveloped watersheds. The study data indicate that grouping and examining stream nutrient yields based on the land-use classifications used in this report can be useful for characterizing relations between watershed settings and nutrient yields in streams located throughout central and eastern North Carolina. Compiled study data also were analyzed with four regression tree models as a means of determining which watershed environmental variables or combination of variables result in basins that are likely to have high or low nutrient yields. The regression tree analyses indicated that some of the environmental variables examined in this study were useful for predicting yields of nitrate, total N, and total P. When the median annual nutrient yields for all 48 sites were evaluated as a group (Model 1), annual point-source flow yields had the greatest influence on nitrate and total N yields observed in streams, and annual streamflow yields had the greatest influence on yields of total P. The Model 1 results indicated that watersheds with higher annual point-source flow yields had higher annual yields of nitrate and total N, and watersheds with higher annual streamflow yields had higher annual yields of total P. When sites with high point-source flows (greater than 10 percent of total streamflow) were excluded from the regression tree analyses (Models 2–4), the percentage of forested land in the watersheds was identified as the primary environmental variable influencing stream yields for both total N and total P. Models 2, 3 and 4 did not identify any watershed environmental variables that could adequately explain the observed variability in the nitrate yields among the set of sites examined by each of these models. The results for Models 2, 3, and 4 indicated that watersheds with higher percentages of forested land had lower annual total N and total P yields compared to watersheds with lower percentages of forested land, which had higher median annual total N and total P yields. Additional environmental variables determined to further influence the stream nutrient yields included median annual percentage of point-source flow contributions to the streams, variables of land cover (percentage of forested land, agricultural land, and (or) forested land plus wetlands) in the watershed and (or) in the stream buffer, and drainage area. The regression tree models can serve as a tool for relating differences in select watershed attributes to differences in stream yields of nitrate, total N, and total P, which can provide beneficial information for improving nutrient management in streams throughout North Carolina and for reducing nutrient loads to coastal waters.

North Carolina↗

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a result of the release of stored water from Abiquiu Reservoir and Cochiti Lake, which masked the natural influences that increased specific conductance in the downstream direction during the other seasons. During all seasons, pH decreased and major ion concentrations remained stable at the Albuquerque station compared with the San Felipe station, but no single influence could be identified that caused these conditions. Manganese and uranium concentrations at the Otowi and San Felipe stations were largest during the fall/winter baseflow and smallest during the snowmelt runoff, indicating that ground-water inflows likely influenced these concentrations. Water-quality temporal trends were evaluated for selected constituents during the study period and during the individual seasons. Downward trends in major ion concentrations were similar in magnitude at the Taos and Otowi stations, indicating that an upstream influence and (or) the downward trend in annual precipitation was the main reason(s) for these trends. The stations most affected by reservoirs, Chamita and San Felipe, were the only stations at which downward trends in major ions were apparent for flow-adjusted concentrations but not for seasonally correlated low-adjusted concentrations, which indicates fewer seasonal differences at these stations due to reservoir operations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Chloride in Groundwater and Surface Water in Areas Underlain by the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern United States

A study of chloride in groundwater and surface water was conducted for the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States in forested, agricultural, and urban areas by analyzing data collected for the National Water-Quality Assessment Program from 1991 to 2004. Groundwater-quality data from a sampling of 1,329 wells in 19 states were analyzed. Chloride concentrations were greater than the secondary maximum contaminant level established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency of 250 milligrams per liter in 2.5 percent of samples from 797 shallow monitoring wells and in 1.7 percent of samples from 532 drinking-water supply wells. Water samples from shallow monitoring wells in urban areas had the largest concentration of chloride, followed by water samples from agricultural and forested areas (medians of 46, 12, and 2.9 milligrams per liter, respectively). An analysis of chloride:bromide ratios, by mass, and chloride concentrations compared to binary mixing curves for dilute groundwater, halite, sewage and animal waste, potassium chloride fertilizer, basin brines, seawater, and landfill leachate in samples from monitoring wells indicated multiple sources of chloride in samples from wells in urban areas and agricultural areas. Water from shallow monitoring wells in urban areas had the largest chloride:bromide ratio, and samples with chloride:bromide ratios greater than 1,000 and chloride concentrations greater than 100 milligrams per liter were dominated by halite; however, the samples commonly contained mixtures that indicated input from sewage or animal waste. Chloride:bromide ratios were significantly larger in samples from public-supply drinking-water wells than from private drinking-water wells, and ratios were significantly larger in all drinking-water wells in eastern and central regions of the glacial aquifer system than in west-central and western regions of the glacial aquifer system. Surface-water-quality data collected regularly during varying time periods from 1991-2004 from 100 basins dominated by forested, agricultural, or urban land in 15 states were analyzed to determine maximum measured chloride concentrations. Samples from 15 sites in east, central, and west-central areas, collected primarily in winter, had chloride concentrations higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended chronic criterion concentration for aquatic life of 230 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of chloride in base-flow samples were predictive of maximum measured chloride concentrations, indicating that inputs of chloride from groundwater and (or) point-source wastewater discharges increase the likelihood of samples exceeding the recommended chronic aquatic criterion. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that the density of major roads, potential evapotranspiration, and the percentage of annual runoff from saturated overland flow were significant factors in describing the range of maximum measured chloride concentrations in the basins studied. Chloride loads and yields were determined at 95 surface-water-monitoring stations in basins dominated by forested, agricultural, or urban land. Annual chloride yield was largest in the urban basins (median of 88 tons per square mile) and smallest in the forested basins (median of 6.4 tons per square mile). The median chloride yield in the agricultural basins was 15.4 tons per square mile. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that the density of highways (roads in U.S. highway system), the number of major wastewater discharges in the basin, potential evapotranspiration, and urban minus agricultural land area were significant factors in describing the range of average annual chloride yields. Upward trends in chloride loads were apparent in several urban basins for which additional long-term data were available. Increases in chloride loads over time may be related to a variety of factors, including increases in road area and consequent deicing, incr

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Methods for estimating annual exceedance probability discharges for streams in Arkansas, based on data through water year 2013

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study to update regional skew, annual exceedance probability discharges, and regional regression equations used to estimate annual exceedance probability discharges for ungaged locations on streams in the study area with the use of recent geospatial data, new analytical methods, and available annual peak-discharge data through the 2013 water year. An analysis of regional skew using Bayesian weighted least-squares/Bayesian generalized-least squares regression was performed for Arkansas, Louisiana, and parts of Missouri and Oklahoma. The newly developed constant regional skew of -0.17 was used in the computation of annual exceedance probability discharges for 281 streamgages used in the regional regression analysis. Based on analysis of covariance, four flood regions were identified for use in the generation of regional regression models. Thirty-nine basin characteristics were considered as potential explanatory variables, and ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the optimum combinations of basin characteristics for each of the four regions. Basin characteristics in candidate models were evaluated based on multicollinearity with other basin characteristics (variance inflation factor < 2.5) and statistical significance at the 95-percent confidence level ( p ≤ 0.05). Generalized least-squares regression was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region. Average standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 32.76 to 59.53 percent, with the largest range in flood region D. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 90.29 to 97.28 percent, with the largest range also in flood region D. The regional regression equations apply only to locations on streams in Arkansas where annual peak discharges are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization. The applicability and accuracy of the regional regression equations depend on the basin characteristics measured for an ungaged location on a stream being within range of those used to develop the equations.

Arkansas↗

Hydrologic trends associated with urban development for selected streams in the Puget Sound basin, western Washington

Annual streamflow statistics from 10 selected streams in the Puget Sound Basin in western Washington were analyzed to identify possible hydrologic trends associated with urban development and to evaluate the effect of record length on errors in trend analysis. The analysis used three common streamflow statistics (annual mean discharge, annual maximum discharge, and 7-day low flow) and introduced an alternative statistic (fraction of year annual mean discharge was exceeded) for assessing the hydrologic effects of urban development. Although trends were identified in each of the four statistics analyzed, trends were not consistent in any of the four statistics for all selected streams. Instead, trends in two statistics ? (1) fraction of year annual mean discharge was exceeded, and (2) annual (instantaneous) maximum discharge ? were evident in streams with the highest levels of urban development over the period of record but not in streams with the lowest levels of urban development. Trends were not consistent for either annual mean discharge or 7-day low flow in urban streams. Trends were sensitive to the period of analysis for all four statistics, but particularly for the 7-day low flow, which showed increasing and decreasing trends for 10 subsets of the period of record in some streams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Red knot stopover population size and migration ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2022

Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots found at Delaware Bay declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon) fisheries since at least 1990, and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that horseshoe crab harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the breeding grounds, nesting, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population size. We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2022. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2022 Red Knot mark-resight dataset

Delaware, New Jersey↗

Evaluation and correlation of water-quality data for the North Fork Flathead River, northwestern Montana

This report is a compilation and evaluation of water-quality measurements that have been made by the U.S. Geological Survey at two stations on the North Fork Flathead River in Montana. Historical streamflow records show an annual mean daily discharge of 3,010 cubic feet per second near the mouth--a threefold increase compared to discharge at the international boundary. The chemical character of the water is dominated by calcium and magnesium cations and the bicarbonate anion. Base flow, in contrast to high flows from runoff, is characterized by higher dissolved constituents and lower concentrations of suspended sediment. The several lakes that contribute water throughout the middle and lower drainage have a dampening effect on both streamflow and constituent concentrations. Using the available data and computer techniques, regression equations were developed between certain water-quality variables. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗