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USGS2012

Science implementation of Forecast Mekong for food and environmental security

Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.

Phnom Penh↗

USGS2013

On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States

This paper reconciles the difference in the projections of the wet season over the Southeastern United States (SEUS) from a global climate model (the Community Climate System Model Version 3 [CCSM3]) and from a regional climate model (the Regional Spectral Model [RSM]) nested in the CCSM3. The CCSM3 projects a dipole in the summer precipitation anomaly: peninsular Florida dries in the future climate, and the remainder of the SEUS region becomes wetter. The RSM forced with CCSM3 projects a universal drying of the SEUS in the late twenty-first century relative to the corresponding twentieth-century summer. The CCSM3 pattern is attributed to the “upped-ante” mechanism, whereby the atmospheric boundary layer moisture required for convection increases in a warm, statically stable global tropical environment. This criterion becomes harder to meet along convective margins, which include peninsular Florida, resulting in its drying. CCSM3 also projects a southwestward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high that leads to further stabilizing of the atmosphere above Florida, inhibiting convection. The RSM, because of its high (10-km grid) resolution, simulates diurnal variations in summer rainfall over SEUS reasonably well. The RSM improves upon CCSM3 through the RSM’s depiction of the diurnal variance of precipitation, which according to observations accounts for up to 40 % of total seasonal precipitation variance. In the future climate, the RSM projects a significant reduction in the diurnal variability of convection. The reduction is attributed to large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere in the CCSM3 projections.

Alabama;Arkansas;Florida;Georgia;Kentucky;Louisian↗

USGS2025

Cyanotoxin production in shallow subtropical lakes is driven by nutrient enrichment and primary producer abundance on the millennial scale

Increased cyanotoxin concentrations from harmful algal blooms (HABs) in lake systems pose a global challenge to water quality. Although progress has been made in monitoring cyanotoxins in modern environments over recent decades, identifying the triggers of cyanotoxin release by cyanobacteria has yielded mixed results from experimental and analytical studies. Paleolimnological reconstructions can reveal whole-lake long-term changes, but few studies have directly measured cyanotoxins alongside other water quality proxies. Here, we investigated the drivers of sedimentary total microcystin (MC) concentrations on millennial scales in hypereutrophic Lakes Dora and Marian in central Florida, USA. We analyzed dated sediment records using paleolimnological techniques to reconstruct nutrient deposition, cyanobacteria abundance (photosynthetic pigments), and cyanotoxins (total MCs). The objective was to investigate the linkage between MC concentrations in the sediments with both biotic (cyanobacteria and other primary producers) and abiotic factors (nutrients and climate). We found that MC production occurred throughout the ∼7000-year period, progressing from periods of moderate to low, and then to high concentrations in both lakes. Statistical analyses showed that historical MC concentrations were correlated with sedimentary measurements of total phosphorus (TP), cyanobacteria abundance, and other primary producer groups, such as cryptophytes. However, there was only a minimal correspondence with climate proxies, such as charcoal and pollen, suggesting that internal nutrient cycling and human pressures were the dominant drivers of MC deposition. Our study demonstrates that cyanotoxins have occurred for millennia in both lakes with maintained relationships to nutrients and other environmental factors that existed both in historic and modern limnological conditions.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander ( Plethodon punctatus ), Cheat Mountain Salamander ( Plethodon nettingi ), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander ( Plethodon virginia ), Mabee’s Salamander ( Ambystoma mabeei ), and Streamside Salamander ( Ambystoma barbouri ) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness ( i.e. , number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Forests↗

USGS2013

A review on cylindrospermopsin: the global occurrence, detection, toxicity and degradation of a potent cyanotoxin

Cylindrospermopsin is an important cyanobacterial toxin found in water bodies worldwide. The ever-increasing and global occurrence of massive and prolonged blooms of cylindrospermopsin-producing cyanobacteria poses a potential threat to both human and ecosystem health. Its toxicity is associated with metabolic activation and may involve mechanisms that adversely affect a wide variety of targets in an organism. Cylindrospermopsin has been shown to be cytotoxic, dermatotoxic, genotoxic, hepatotoxic in vivo, developmentally toxic, and may be carcinogenic. Human exposure may occur through drinking water, during recreational activities and by consuming foods in which the toxin may have bioaccumulated. Drinking water shortages of sufficient quality coupled with growing human pressures and climate variability and change necessitate an integrated and sustainable water management program. This review presents an overview of the importance of cylindrospermopsin, its detection, toxicity, worldwide distribution, and lastly, its chemical and biological degradation and removal by natural processes and drinking water treatment processes.

Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts↗

USGS2026

A review and synthesis of post-wildfire shifts in hydrologic processes and streamflow generation mechanisms

Critical water supply watersheds in the western United States (WUS) are impacted by wildfires, with potential negative effects on water quality and quantity. Scientific understanding is currently insufficient to deliver estimates of wildfire consequences for water quantity that are regionally accurate. Regional variability in the directionality and magnitude of post-wildfire shifts in streamflow generation fuels uncertainty in estimates of wildfire effects on water supply. In this work we provide a narrative review of wildfire effects on hydrologic processes and the resulting changes in streamflow generation mechanisms with a focus on the WUS, incorporating other global regions when pertinent. A conceptual model summary of wildfire effects on streamflow generation emphasizes: (1) precipitation seasonality, (2) synchrony of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, (3) net shifts in interception, evaporation, and transpiration relative to total annual precipitation, (4) vegetation changes, including compensatory uptake and type conversion, (5) degree of overlap in rainfall rates and infiltration, (6) fire extent and severity, (7) burn scar positioning (e.g. in headwaters or proximal to watershed outlet), (8) scale-dependent groundwater leakage, (9) near-surface water storage reduction, and (10) soil to groundwater connectivity. Ongoing gaps and challenges include separating the influences of precipitation variability, water withdrawals, and post-fire land management; compound and overlapping disturbances; and lack of pre-fire data. Notable future opportunities include: harnessing ever-improving gridded and remotely sensed precipitation and fire-effects data; linking geophysical, isotopic tracer, and geochemical signatures to diagnose hydrologic changes; leveraging physically based and data-driven model advancements; and analyzing streamflow generation recovery trajectories across diverse watersheds.

western United States↗

USGS2024

Co-mast: Harmonized seed production data for woody plants across US long-term research sites

Plants display a range of temporal patterns of inter-annual reproduction, from relatively constant seed production to “mast seeding,” the synchronized and highly variable interannual seed production of plants within a population. Previous efforts have compiled global records of seed production in long-lived plants to gain insight into seed production, forest and animal population dynamics, and the effects of global change on masting. Existing datasets focus on seed production dynamics at the population scale but are limited in their ability to examine community-level mast seeding dynamics across different plant species at the continental scale. We harmonized decades of plant reproduction data for 141 woody plant species across nine Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) or long-term ecological monitoring sites from a wide range of habitats across the United States. Plant reproduction data are reported annually between 1957 and 2021 and based on either seed traps or seed and/or cone counts on individual trees. A wide range of woody plant species including trees, shrubs, and lianas are represented within sites allowing for direct community-level comparisons among species. We share code for filtering of data that enables the comparison of plot and individual tree data across sites. For each species, we compiled relevant life history attributes (e.g., seed mass, dispersal syndrome, seed longevity, sexual system) that may serve as important predictors of mast seeding in future analyses. To aid in phylogenetically informed analyses, we also share a phylogeny and phylogenetic distance matrix for all species in the dataset. These data can be used to investigate continent-scale ecological properties of seed production, including individual and population variability, synchrony within and across species, and how these properties of seed production vary in relation to plant species traits and environmental conditions. In addition, these data can be used to assess how annual variability in seed production is associated with climate conditions and how that varies across populations, species, and regions. The dataset is released under a CC0 1.0 Universal public domain license.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

Suburban watershed nitrogen retention: Estimating the effectiveness of stormwater management structures

Excess nitrogen (N) is a primary driver of freshwater and coastal eutrophication globally, and urban stormwater is a rapidly growing source of N pollution. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are used widely to remove excess N from runoff in urban and suburban areas, and are expected to perform under a wide variety of environmental conditions. Yet the capacity of BMPs to retain excess N varies; and both the variation and the drivers thereof are largely unknown, hindering the ability of water resource managers to meet water quality targets in a cost-effective way. Here, we use structured expert judgment (SEJ), a performance-weighted method of expert elicitation, to quantify the uncertainty in BMP performance under a range of site-specific environmental conditions and to estimate the extent to which key environmental factors influence variation in BMP performance. We hypothesized that rain event frequency and magnitude, BMP type and size, and physiographic province would significantly influence the experts’ estimates of N retention by BMPs common to suburban Piedmont and Coastal Plain watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Expert knowledge indicated wide uncertainty in BMP performance, with N removal efficiencies ranging from <0% (BMP acting as a source of N during a rain event) to >40%. Experts believed that the amount of rain was the primary identifiable source of variability in BMP efficiency, which is relevant given climate projections of more frequent heavy rain events in the mid-Atlantic. To assess the extent to which those projected changes might alter N export from suburban BMPs and watersheds, we combined downscaled estimates of rainfall with distributions of N loads for different-sized rain events derived from our elicitation. The model predicted higher and more variable N loads under a projected future climate regime, suggesting that current BMP regulations for reducing nutrients may be inadequate in the future.

Maryland↗

USGS2021

Changes in rocky intertidal community structure during a marine heatwave in the northern Gulf of Alaska

Marine heatwaves are global phenomena that can have major impacts on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. By mid-2014, the Pacific Marine Heatwave (PMH) was evident in intertidal waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska and persisted for multiple years. While offshore marine ecosystems are known to respond to these warmer waters, the response of rocky intertidal ecosystems to this warming is unclear. Intertidal communities link terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their resources are important to marine and terrestrial predators and to human communities for food and recreation, while simultaneously supporting a growing coastal tourism industry. Given that current climate change projections suggest increased frequency and duration of marine heatwaves, monitoring and understanding the impacts of heatwaves on intertidal habitats is important. As part of the Gulf Watch Alaska Long-Term Monitoring program, we examined rocky intertidal community structure at 21 sites across four regions spanning 1,200 km of coastline: Western Prince William Sound, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kachemak Bay, and Katmai National Park and Preserve. Sites were monitored annually from 2012 to 2019 at mid and low tidal strata. Before-PMH (2012–2014), community structure differed among regions. We found macroalgal foundation species declined during this period mirroring patterns observed elsewhere for subtidal habitat formers during heatwave events. The region-wide shift from an autotroph-macroalgal dominated rocky intertidal to a heterotroph-filter-feeder dominated state concurrent with the changing environmental conditions associated with a marine heatwave event suggests the PMH had Gulf-wide impacts to the structure of rocky intertidal communities. During/after-PMH (2015–2019), similarities in community structure increased across regions, leading to a greater homogenization of these communities, due to declines in macroalgal cover, driven mostly by a decline in the rockweed, Fucus distichus , and other fleshy red algae in 2015, followed by an increase in barnacle cover in 2016, and an increase in mussel cover in 2017. Strong, large-scale oceanographic events, like the PMH, may override local drivers to similarly influence patterns of intertidal community structure.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

Rivers, runoff, and reefs

The role of terrigenous sediment in controlling the occurrence of coral reef ecosystems is qualitatively understood and has been studied at local scales, but has not been systematically evaluated on a global-to-regional scale. Current concerns about degradation of reef environments and alteration of the hydrologic and sediment cycles place the issue at a focal point of multiple environmental concerns. We use a geospatial clustering of a coastal zone database of river and local runoff identified with 0.5?? grid cells to identify areas of high potential runoff effects, and combine this with a database of reported coral reef locations. Coastal cells with high runoff values are much less likely to contain reefs than low runoff cells and GIS buffer analysis demonstrates that this inhibition extends to offshore ocean cells as well. This analysis does not uniquely define the effects of sediment, since salinity, nutrients, and contaminants are potentially confounding variables also associated with runoff. However, sediment effects are likely to be a major factor and a basis is provided for extending the study to higher resolution with more specific variables. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2014

Net ecosystem productivity of temperate grasslands in northern China: An upscaling study

Grassland is one of the widespread biome types globally, and plays an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. We examined net ecosystem production (NEP) for the temperate grasslands in northern China from 2000 to 2010. We combined flux observations, satellite data, and climate data to develop a piecewise regression model for NEP, and then used the model to map NEP for grasslands in northern China. Over the growing season, the northern China's grassland had a net carbon uptake of 158 ± 25 g C m −2 during 2000–2010 with the mean regional NEP estimate of 126 Tg C. Our results showed generally higher grassland NEP at high latitudes (northeast) than at low latitudes (central and west) because of different grassland types and environmental conditions. In the northeast, which is dominated by meadow steppes, the growing season NEP generally reached 200–300 g C m −2 . In the southwest corner of the region, which is partially occupied by alpine meadow systems, the growing season NEP also reached 200–300 g C m −2 . In the central part, which is dominated by typical steppe systems, the growing season NEP generally varied in the range of 100–200 g C m−2. The NEP of the northern China's grasslands was highly variable through years, ranging from 129 (2001) to 217 g C m −2 growing season −1 (2010). The large interannual variations of NEP could be attributed to the sensitivity of temperate grasslands to climate changes and extreme climatic events. The droughts in 2000, 2001, and 2006 reduced the carbon uptake over the growing season by 11%, 29%, and 16% relative to the long-term (2000–2010) mean. Over the study period (2000–2010), precipitation was significantly correlated with NEP for the growing season (R 2 = 0.35, p-value < 0.1), indicating that water availability is an important stressor for the productivity of the temperate grasslands in semi-arid and arid regions in northern China. We conclude that northern temperate grasslands have the potential to sequester carbon, but the capacity of carbon sequestration depends on grassland types and environmental conditions. Extreme climate events like drought can significantly reduce the net carbon uptake of grasslands.

Inner Mongolia;Gansu;And Ningxia Provinces↗

USGS2020

Critical shifts in trace metal transport and remediation performance under future low river flows

Exceptionally low river flows are predicted to become more frequent and more severe across many global regions as a consequence of climate change. Investigations of trace metal transport dynamics across streamflows reveal stark changes in water chemistry, metal transformation processes, and remediation effectiveness under exceptionally low-flow conditions. High spatial resolution hydrological and water quality datasets indicate that metal-rich groundwater will exert a greater control on stream water chemistry and metal concentrations because of climate change. This is because the proportion of stream water sourced from mined areas and mineralized strata will increase under predicted future low-flow scenarios (from 25% under Q45 flow to 66% under Q99 flow in this study). However, mineral speciation modelling indicates that changes in stream pH and hydraulic conditions at low flow will decrease aqueous metal transport and increase sediment metal concentrations by enhancing metal sorption directly to streambed sediments. Solute transport modelling further demonstrates how increases in the importance of metal-rich diffuse groundwater sources at low flow could minimize the benefits of point source metal contamination treatment. Understanding metal transport dynamics under exceptionally low flows, as well as under high flows, is crucial to evaluate ecosystem service provision and remediation effectiveness in watersheds under future climate change scenarios.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS1996

Developing a temporal database of urban development for the Baltimore/Washington region

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are working together as a multiagency, multidisciplinary team in developing a temporal database that documents the growth of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region. This database consists of urban development, principal transportation, shoreline, and population density change. The urban development theme, considered a primary data layer in the study of urban land transformation resulting from human impact on the land, is the focus of this paper. The Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics and Human Impacts Study builds on earlier research efforts that mapped urban land use change for the San Francisco Bay area (Acevedo and Bell, 1994; Bell and others, 1995; Kirtland and others, 1994). In developing a temporal database (Acevedo and others, in press), the team participants hope to provide data that can be used to study patterns of urban growth; assess ecological, environmental, and climatic impacts of urban change; and model and predict future urbanization patterns and impacts (Clarke and others, 1996). Both the San Francisco and Baltimore-Washington regions were selected because of the rapid urban growth and resulting impacts on their ecosystems. The Chesapeake Bay region in particular has undergone extensive environmental agitation due to the hydrologic problems that have arisen from the increase in impermeable surfaces and structures, that is buildings and pavement that physically cover the soil. Because of the inability of water to percolate into the ground, little purification occurs by filtration. Water runs over paved surfaces and quickly washes high levels of toxins directly into the water system. Toxins like gasoline, oil, and fertilizer have dramatically affected the local streams, rivers, and the bay. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. This paper describes the techniques used to map the extent of urban areas for Phase I and does not discuss Phase II in detail because the work is still in progress. In this study, urban development is defined as areas of intensive use, with much of the land covered by structures. The built-up areas are characterized by the existence of a systematic street pattern, and the relative concentration of buildings and associated intensive use areas, such as parking lots. Using this definition, urban development does not refer to political boundaries and may include incorporated or unincorporated areas as well as military reservations. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. To build the urban component of the temporal database, a multidisciplinary team was assembled and a phased approach initiated. Expanding on procedures developed for the San Francisco Regional Study (Bell and others, 1995), the team developed data definitions, a classification scheme, compilation criteria, mapping specifications, guidelines for source materials, and metadata specifications to support development of a logically consistent dataset. Extensive documentation procedures were established to ensure consistency in data collection, and for subsequent application to other regions. Phase II was the implementation of the regional mapping effort. ABSTRACT The U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Maryland Baltimore County, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census are developing a temporal database to study urban development in the Baltimore-Washington region. The primary data layer, the extent of urban or built-up areas, was compiled using a geographic information system and historical maps, remotely sensed data, digital land use data, and census information from a variety of sources. Urban land use change has been documented by the Baltimore-Washington Spatial Dynamics & Human Impact Study Team for the last 200 years. The methods, definitions, and collection criteria used to define urban or built-up areas were developed by a multi-disciplinary team that also ensures consistency in collection techniques and documentation methods for subsequent application in other regions. Animation techniques were used to visualize the database and to document the evolution of the region's urban landscape. The database is an important tool to urban and regional planners, ecologists, and global change researchers for measuring trends in urban sprawl, analyzing patterns of water pollution, understanding the impacts of development on ecosystems, and developing predictive modeling techniques to better forecast areas of urban growth. The study area for Phase I consisted of an approximate area of 15- by 15-minute segment centered around the city of Baltimore (fig. 1). Phase I was used as a prototype for the technique development and integration that the multiagency collaborative effort would require. The regional study, Phase II, encompassed a 2-degree square centered on Washington, D.C. With more than 7 million people spread across 39 counties, the Baltimore-Washington region is one the Nation's fastest growing metropolitan areas. The two cities are rapidly merging into one.

Maryland↗

USGS2025

Climate-driven sulfate export in alpine watersheds may stimulate methylmercury production

Climate change is increasing sulfate export and changing wetland extent in mountain regions. These changes may increase microbially mediated production of the neurotoxic substance methylmercury due to enhanced sulfate metabolism in mountain environments. Here, we assess methylmercury concentrations and formation rates across high-elevation wetlands in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We also investigate sulfate controls on methylmercury production within subalpine peatlands by amending soils with sulfate to mimic increased stream export of sulfate from the alpine zone and measuring methylmercury formation rates for different sulfate treatments. We found that subalpine peatlands have statistically significant higher methylmercury concentrations and formation rates compared to alpine, mineral-soil wetlands. Methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands also increased significantly ( p < 0.05) following sulfate additions; the highest rates occurred in sediments with intermediate extractable sulfate concentrations (∼0.60–1.4 mg sulfate g −1 dry soil). Our study is the first to identify soil sulfate-related thresholds for methylmercury production and sulfate-limitation of methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands. These findings highlight important linkages between climate-driven mineral weathering and mercury cycling in mountain regions globally.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

Experimental warming and its legacy effects on root dynamics following two hurricane disturbances in a wet tropical forest

Tropical forests are expected to experience unprecedented warming and increases in hurricane disturbances in the coming decades; yet, our understanding of how these productive systems, especially their belowground component, will respond to the combined effects of varied environmental changes remains empirically limited. Here we evaluated the responses of root dynamics (production, mortality, and biomass) to soil and understory warming (+4°C) and after two consecutive tropical hurricanes in our in situ warming experiment in a tropical forest of Puerto Rico: Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE). We collected minirhizotron images from three warmed plots and three control plots of 12 m 2 . Following Hurricanes Irma and María in September 2017, the infrared heater warming treatment was suspended for repairs, which allowed us to explore potential legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery. We found that warming significantly reduced root production and root biomass over time. Following hurricane disturbance, both root biomass and production increased substantially across all plots; the root biomass increased 2.8-fold in controls but only 1.6-fold in previously warmed plots. This pattern held true for both herbaceous and woody roots, suggesting that the consistent antecedent warming conditions reduced root capacity to recover following hurricane disturbance. Root production and mortality were both related to soil ammonium nitrogen and microbial biomass nitrogen before and after the hurricanes. This experiment has provided an unprecedented look at the complex interactive effects of disturbance and climate change on the root component of a tropical forested ecosystem. A decrease in root production in a warmer world and slower root recovery after a major hurricane disturbance, as observed here, are likely to have longer-term consequences for tropical forest responses to future global change.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2024

Leveraging extensive soil, vegetation, fire, and land treatment data to inform restoration across the sagebrush biome

Context Widespread ecological degradation has prompted calls for massive global investments in ecological restoration, yet limited resources necessitate efficient application of restoration efforts. In western North America, altered fire regimes are increasing the scale of restoration needed to preserve the sagebrush ( Artemisia species) biome but prioritizing and implementing effective restoration is complicated by the vast and heterogeneous sagebrush landscape, which includes gradients in climate, disturbance, and species composition. Objectives To develop spatially explicit and context-dependent estimates of treatment efficacy and sagebrush recovery rates. Methods We leveraged a suite of spatio-temporally extensive datasets to evaluate the influence of restoration treatments and environmental conditions on trends in post-disturbance sagebrush cover, with an emphasis on understanding differences between sites recovering naturally and sites receiving restoration treatments. We used estimates from these models to develop spatially explicit projections for sagebrush recovery, conditional on disturbance, restoration practice, and environmental conditions. Results We found seeding Artemisia spp. increased sagebrush cover over time relative to natural recovery, but this relationship depended on spring soil moisture availability and treatment methods. Natural recovery was positively influenced by soil moisture and sagebrush cover and negatively influenced by cumulative burns and annual herbaceous cover, while the influence of perennial herbaceous cover varied with soil moisture. Conclusions Our results provide biome-wide insights and spatially explicit tools that can inform economic cost-effectiveness analyses, restoration prioritization tools, and other scientific endeavors to ensure managers have the tools and information needed to effectively steward the sagebrush biome in a rapidly changing world.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2018

Modeling resource selection of bobcats (Lynx rufus) and vertebrate species distributions in Orange County, southern California

For nature reserves in urban settings, wildlife and wildlife habitats may be affected by recreational activities and intensive, adjacent development. Sustaining biodiversity in such reserves is a challenge for land and natural resource managers, but identification of core areas and key resources for wildlife species may help in planning for current and emerging threats. To help identify core areas and resources, we conducted spatial analyses and predictive modeling of vertebrate distributions for a network of nature reserves in densely populated Orange County, California. We primarily focused on bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), a species with a strong association with natural habitat. Bobcat space use has been correlated with broad, simple land-use categories, but relatively little is known about the influence of greater landscape complexity on habitat suitability for bobcats. To examine habitat selection by bobcats, we developed spatial data layers representing environmental factors that might influence this species, and we used previously collected Global Positioning System tracking data for 30 male and 21 female bobcats to indicate bobcat response to complex landscape factors. We examined these inputs using Resource Selection Function (RSF) modeling and developed spatially explicit models of the probability of bobcat use (selection or avoidance) of landscape characteristics. RSF models highlighted the general importance of reserve habitat for bobcats, but suggested that female bobcats were more dependent that male bobcats on habitat within designated reserves. Male bobcats, which range more widely than female bobcats, were associated with undeveloped areas both within and outside reserves. Small areas were present outside reserves that seemed to provide additional suitable habitat or movement areas for bobcats, potentially through restoration, connectivity, or reduced edge effects. Although bobcat RSFs suggested areas of high value to this species and potentially other species, taxa can differ greatly in their resource-selection and spatial requirements. Thus, for several species of reptiles, amphibians, and birds, we adapted species distribution models based on occurrence data to examine the response of other vertebrates to the landscape. To identify potential High-Value Areas (HVAs) for single or multiple species, we then developed a step-wise filtering process that can be applied to a series of spatial data layers. We provide examples of alternative decision models for HVAs that capture different elements of biodiversity and a range of management considerations. As landscape and management challenges change, these spatial layers and decision rules can be adjusted based on new information. Our approach thus establishes a general framework for identifying high-value habitat that can be used for current management decisions and refined in the future, depending on management interests and goals and the availability of suitable quality data or adequate surrogate information.

California↗

USGS2024

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Article↗