SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Forest Ecosystems”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Use of multi-temporal Landsat images to monitor forest disturbance (1987-2007) in the Black Hills of South Dakota

Monitoring forest disturbance is important for studying carbon pools and fluxes. The goal of this study is to observe forest disturbance of different burn severity levels using multi-temporal Landsat images. The Jasper Fire occurred in the Black Hills National Forest, South Dakota, during August and September of 2000. The fire disturbance to ecosystem characteristics has a widespread and long-term impact. We used 18 Landsat images acquired from 1987 to 2007 to monitor the land cover changes due to the fire disturbance. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), and Integrated Forest Index (IFI) were calculated from the Landsat at-sensor-reflectance data. Based on IFI in 2000 and Composite Burn Index data collected in May 2002, nine field plots were selected and monitored. The results showed that all four spectral indices were capable of detecting and monitoring the forest disturbance caused by thinning and fire. IFI and NBR are more suitable for long-term monitoring while NDVI and EVI are more sensitive to rapid changes within a one-year period.

South Dakota↗

USGS2017

Responses of terrestrial herpetofauna to persistent, novel ecosystems resulting from mountaintop removal mining

Mountaintop removal mining is a large-scale surface mining technique that removes entire floral and faunal communities, along with soil horizons located above coal seams. In West Virginia, the majority of this mining occurs on forested mountaintops. However, after mining ceases the land is typically reclaimed to grasslands and shrublands, resulting in novel ecosystems. In this study, we examined responses of herpetofauna to these novel ecosystems 10–28 y postreclamation. We quantified differences in species-specific habitat associations, (sub)order-level abundances, and habitat characteristics in four habitat types: reclaimed grassland, reclaimed shrubland, forest fragments in mined areas, and nonmined intact forest. Habitat type accounted for 33.2% of the variation in species-specific captures. With few exceptions, forest specialists were associated with intact forest and fragmented forest sites, while habitat generalists were either associated with grassland and shrubland sites or were distributed among all habitat types. At the (sub)order level, salamander (Order Urodela) captures were highest at fragmented and intact forest sites, frog and toad (Order Anura) captures were lowest at intact forest sites, and snake (Suborder Serpentes) captures were highest at shrubland sites. Habitat type was a strong predictor for estimated total abundance of urodeles, but not for anurans or snakes. Tree stem densities in grasslands differed from the other three habitat types, and large trees (>38 cm diameter at breast height) were only present at forest sites. Overstory vegetation cover was greater in forested than in reclaimed habitat types. Ground cover in reclaimed grasslands was distinct from forest treatments with generally less woody debris and litter cover and more vegetative cover. It is important to consider the distributions of habitat specialists of conservation concern when delineating potential mountaintop mine sites, as these sites will likely contain unsuitable habitat for forest specialists for decades or centuries when reclaimed to grassland or shrubland.

West Virginia↗

USGS2022

N and P constrain C in ecosystems under climate change: Role of nutrient redistribution, accumulation, and stoichiometry

We use the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to examine responses of twelve ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), warming, and 20% decreases or increases in precipitation. Ecosystems respond synergistically to elevated CO 2 , warming, and decreased precipitation combined because higher water-use efficiency with elevated CO 2 and higher fertility with warming compensate for responses to drought. Response to elevated CO 2 , warming, and increased precipitation combined is additive. We analyze changes in ecosystem carbon (C) based on four nitrogen (N) and four phosphorus (P) attribution factors: (1) changes in total ecosystem N and P, (2) changes in N and P distribution between vegetation and soil, (3) changes in vegetation C:N and C:P ratios, and (4) changes in soil C:N and C:P ratios. In the combined CO 2 and climate change simulations, all ecosystems gain C. The contributions of these four attribution factors to changes in ecosystem C storage varies among ecosystems because of differences in the initial distributions of N and P between vegetation and soil and the openness of the ecosystem N and P cycles. The net transfer of N and P from soil to vegetation dominates the C response of forests. For tundra and grasslands, the C gain is also associated with increased soil C:N and C:P. In ecosystems with symbiotic N fixation, C gains resulted from N accumulation. Because of differences in N versus P cycle openness and the distribution of organic matter between vegetation and soil, changes in the N and P attribution factors do not always parallel one another. Differences among ecosystems in C-nutrient interactions and the amount of woody biomass interact to shape ecosystem C sequestration under simulated global change. We suggest that future studies quantify the openness of the N and P cycles and changes in the distribution of C, N, and P among ecosystem components, which currently limit understanding of nutrient effects on C sequestration and responses to elevated CO 2 and climate change.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2012

The role of fire-return interval and season of burn in snag dynamics in a south Florida slash pine forest

Standing dead trees, or snags, are an important habitat element for many animal species. In many ecosystems, fire is a primary driver of snag population dynamics because it can both create and consume snags. The objective of this study was to examine how variation in two key components of the fire regime—fire-return interval and season of burn—affected population dynamics of snags. Using a factorial design, we exposed 1 ha plots, located within larger burn units in a south Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Little and Dorman) forest, to prescribed fire applied at two intervals (approximately 3-year intervals vs. approximately 6-year intervals) and during two seasons (wet season vs. dry season) over a 12- to 13-year period. We found no consistent effect of fire season or frequency on the density of lightly to moderately decayed or heavily decayed snags, suggesting that variation in these elements of the fire regime at the scale we considered is relatively unimportant in the dynamics of snag populations. However, our confidence in these findings is limited by small sample sizes, potentially confounding effects of unmeasured variation in fire behavior and effects (e.g., intensity, severity, synergy with drought cycles) and wide variation in responses within a treatment level. The generalizing of our findings is also limited by the narrow range of treatment levels considered. Future experiments incorporating a wider range of fire regimes and directly quantifying fire intensity would prove useful in identifying more clearly the role of fire in shaping the dynamics of snag populations.

Florida↗

USGS2019

A framework for quantifying resilience to forest disturbance

(Bradford) The concept of ecological resilience is an invaluable tool to assess the risk of state transitions and predict the impact of management on an ecosystem’s response to future disturbances. However, resilience is difficult to quantify and the factors contributing to resilience are often unknown in systems subject to multiple disturbances. We present a framework to assess the possibility of ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forests to be resilient to future disturbance by combining indicators of resistance to fire, insect, and drought disturbances using data from the Rio Tusas-Lower San Antonio landscape in northern New Mexico. On average, the dry mixed conifer forests received a higher score for potential resilience than the ponderosa pine (5.24 and 4.07, respectively, out of nine possible points). Canopy bulk density was the most important driver of the overall score in the dry mixed conifer type. In the ponderosa pine type, overall basal area and canopy bulk density were the strongest drivers of the overall score. These indicators have the greatest impact on the resilience score and provide the most effective targets for management to increase the possibility of resilience in these forest types. We validated the model in both forest types by comparing individual stands to an ‘ideal’ score for a stand that is within the historic range of variation (HRV) and confirmed that stands outside of HRV had a low possibility of resilience and stands that had received restoration-based treatments were more likely to be resilient. Our results provide evidence that the changes to forest structure and species composition that have occurred since the onset of fire exclusion have degraded the potential of these forest types to be resilient to future fire, insect, and drought-related disturbances. By modifying disturbances and resilience indicator thresholds this model can be applied to assess resilience across various regions and ecosystem types.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

USGS2024

Using climate-fire analog mapping to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildland fire in protected areas of the conterminous US

Potential changes in wildland fire regimes due to anthropogenic climate change can be projected using data from climate models, but directly applying these meteorological variables to long-term planning and adaptive management activities may be difficult for decision makers. Analog mapping, in contrast, creates more intuitive assessments of changing fire regimes that also recognize the complex, multivariate, and multi-scalar nature of ecosystems. Here, we use data from 20 downscaled climate models under two climate forcing scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to identify and map future climate-fire analogs for 655 protected areas in the conterminous U.S. based on annual temperature, cumulative precipitation amount and seasonality, and fire regime potentials derived from a simple process-based fire frequency model. Patterns of analogs were heavily influenced by gradients in latitude and topography, with longer time frames (end-of-century conditions) and the more extreme climate forcing scenario resulting in greater analog distances and more ensemble entropy (i.e., less consensus among climate models regarding the closest analog for a given management unit). Finer scale analyses for three protected areas (Yellowstone and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, White Mountain National Forest) illustrate how climate-fire analog mapping can improve insight into the types of ecosystem responses that might occur under similar management conditions. Federally protected areas such as national parks, forests, and wildlife refuges have long served as reference sites for the study of fire regimes, a role that is likely to continue because many of these units are managed to allow at least some ecosystem processes to operate independently. The results suggest that analog mapping approaches are well-suited as part of qualitative assessments within climate- and fire-aware adaptive management processes. The use of analogs to depict relatable, real-world depictions of possible ecosystem changes in a given place, can help managers make more strategic choices about when and where to resist, accept, or direct climate change-driven ecological change.

Global Environmental Change Advances↗

USGS1999

Nitrogen mineralization in a mature boreal forest, Isle Royale, Michigan

The 115-ha boreal Wallace Lake watershed, located on Isle Royale in the Lake Superior Basin, receives moderate anthropogenic atmospheric N inputs (3 kg ha-1 yr-1). Ecosystem response to atmospheric N inputs is, in part, determined by internal production and consumption of this limiting nutrient. The objectives of this 2-yr study on plots dominated by birch, spruce, or alder were to quantify forest floor and surface soil net and gross N mineralization rates, and examine potential effects of changes in temperature and moisture on these processes. Gross N mineralization rates were 23 times net mineralization rates, and increased with forest floor/soil temperature and moisture. Substrate quality was a likely factor in higher gross mineralization rates beneath birch and spruce. Ammonium immobilization increased with forest floor/soil temperature and moisture. Higher net N mineralization rates beneath alder resulted from lower microbial immobilization rather than greater gross N mineralization. The greatest differences between gross N mineralization and immobilization occurred in early summer. Ammonium immobilization averaged 62% of gross N mineralization. Net and gross nitrification rates differed by vegetation type, were highest in spring and fall, and increased with moisture. Gross nitrification was 19 times net nitrification rates. Nitrate immobilization increased with soil moisture, and equalled or exceeded gross nitrification. Net and gross N mineralization or nitrification rates were not correlated. Seasonal variation in forest floor and surface soil N cycling coupled with high ecosystem retention of precipitation N inputs suggest streamwater N concentrations and output reflect trends in soil processes.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2008

Resolving model parameter values from carbon and nitrogen stock measurements in a wide range of tropical mature forests using nonlinear inversion and regression trees

Objectively assessing the performance of a model and deriving model parameter values from observations are critical and challenging in landscape to regional modeling. In this paper, we applied a nonlinear inversion technique to calibrate the ecosystem model CENTURY against carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stock measurements collected from 39 mature tropical forest sites in seven life zones in Costa Rica. Net primary productivity from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), C and N stocks in aboveground live biomass, litter, coarse woody debris (CWD), and in soils were used to calibrate the model. To investigate the resolution of available observations on the number of adjustable parameters, inversion was performed using nine setups of adjustable parameters. Statistics including observation sensitivity, parameter correlation coefficient, parameter sensitivity, and parameter confidence limits were used to evaluate the information content of observations, resolution of model parameters, and overall model performance. Results indicated that soil organic carbon content, soil nitrogen content, and total aboveground biomass carbon had the highest information contents, while measurements of carbon in litter and nitrogen in CWD contributed little to the parameter estimation processes. The available information could resolve the values of 2-4 parameters. Adjusting just one parameter resulted in under-fitting and unacceptable model performance, while adjusting five parameters simultaneously led to over-fitting. Results further indicated that the MODIS NPP values were compressed as compared with the spatial variability of net primary production (NPP) values inferred from inverse modeling. Using inverse modeling to infer NPP and other sensitive model parameters from C and N stock observations provides an opportunity to utilize data collected by national to regional forest inventory systems to reduce the uncertainties in the carbon cycle and generate valuable databases to validate and improve MODIS NPP algorithms.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2022

Elevated nitrogen deposition to fire-prone forests adjacent to urban and agricultural areas, Colorado front range, USA

As humans increasingly dominate the nitrogen cycle, deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) will continue to have adverse consequences for ecosystems. In the Rocky Mountains, Nr deposition remains elevated and has become increasingly dominated by ammonium, despite efforts to reduce emissions. Currently, spatial models of Nr deposition do not fully account for urban and agricultural emissions, sources that contribute to the observed high rates of ammonium deposition in adjacent ecosystems. To address this gap in the Colorado Front Range, we measured Nr deposition along a transect from urban and agricultural plains to subalpine forests. We found elevated values of wet Nr deposition at the urban and foothill sites (4.7 and 4.4 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , respectively), and lower values at the montane and subalpine sites (2.5–2.8 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ). Ammonium dominated wet and bulk Nr deposition, accounting for approximately 69% of bulk Nr deposition. Seasonally, bulk Nr deposition was highest in the spring months, when air masses from the plains are transported west into the mountains. Previous work has demonstrated that high elevations of the Colorado Front Range are especially sensitive to Nr deposition due to thin soil and minimal vegetation. Our results indicate that despite lower precipitation, the fire-prone forested foothills receive even greater Nr deposition than higher elevations, due to proximity to urban and agricultural Nr sources. The interaction between elevated Nr deposition and wildfire in this region may pose a risk to water supplies and ecosystems, and is an important topic for future research.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings

Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistence and spread, and because the conditions allowing seedlings to survive and grow are often more restrictive than those adults can tolerate. However, detailed long‐term data on the responses of individual seedlings to climatic variation are rare. Here, we analyze a decade of seedling growth and survival data collected in 25 long‐term plots located in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks. The forest types represented range from lower‐elevation mixed conifer, to red fir‐dominated, to high‐elevation western white pine stands. Twelve species, including two oaks and ten conifers, are found across these plots. Survival and transition to larger size classes are modeled within a Bayesian framework as a function of species, size, fire, and various climate variables. We initially expected that precipitation‐related variables would have a strong effect on seedling survival and growth in this Mediterranean‐climate region and that some species might respond positively to higher temperatures if they are adapted to warmer low‐elevation areas or to higher‐than‐average temperatures if they are high‐elevation species whose growing seasons are limited by cold. However, we found that higher July maximum temperature or temperature anomalies were associated with lower survival and growth for most species, while precipitation and snow effects were weaker and more variable. Higher precipitation had a positive effect on survival of most species, but snow effects and precipitation effects on growth could be negative. Given the estimated climate responses, under potential future scenarios of higher summer temperatures and altered precipitation, most species are predicted to have lower survival and reduced growth. This is likely to favor species that have relatively high survival and growth and less negative responses to climatic shift (such as several of the pines) and perhaps lead to a more open forest structure—or potentially transition to non‐forest vegetation types where seedling recruitment does not keep pace with adult mortality.

California↗

USGS1997

Understory plant species composition in remnant stands along an urban-to-rural land-use gradient

We examined the understory species composition of 24 remnant forest stands along an urban-to-rural gradient in the metropolitan Milwaukee, Wisconsin region to determine the relationships between plant community composition, human disturbance, and contrasting types of land use along a gradient of urbanization. A significant difference was found in shrub species community composition among three contrasting land-use categories but no significant difference was found in herbaceous community composition. Significant differences in human activity existed among rural, urban, and urbanizing land-use categories, but this index of disturbance was not significantly correlated to gradients in species composition. All stands in this study had been subjected to various types of human activity and environmental disturbances in the past. Our data suggest that differences in the relative importance of understory species exist among stands but these differences may not be caused by the impacts of urbanization alone. Changes in the natural disturbance regime of this landscape, along with the impacts associated with urbanization, have led to an individualistic response in the compositional dynamics of forest stands.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Divergence in forest-type response to climate and weather: Evidence for regional links between forest-type evenness and net primary productivity

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 × 8 km 2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2011

Setting limits: Using air pollution thresholds to protect and restore U.S. ecosystems

More than four decades of research provide unequivocal evidence that sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury pollution have altered, and will continue to alter, our nation's lands and waters. The emission and deposition of air pollutants harm native plants and animals, degrade water quality, affect forest productivity, and are damaging to human health. Many air quality policies limit emissions at the source but these control measures do not always consider ecosystem impacts. Air pollution thresholds at which ecological effects are observed, such as critical loads, are effective tools for assessing the impacts of air pollution on essential ecosystem services and for informing public policy. U.S. ecosystems can be more effectively protected and restored by using a combination of emissions-based approaches and science-based thresholds of ecosystem damage. Based on the results of a comprehensive review of air pollution thresholds, we conclude: ??? Ecosystem services such as air and water purification, decomposition and detoxification of waste materials, climate regulation, regeneration of soil fertility, production and biodiversity maintenance, as well as crop, timber and fish supplies are impacted by deposition of nitrogen, sulfur, mercury and other pollutants. The consequences of these changes may be difficult or impossible to reverse as impacts cascade throughout affected ecosystems. ??? The effects of too much nitrogen are common across the U.S. and include altered plant and lichen communities, enhanced growth of invasive species, eutrophication and acidification of lands and waters, and habitat deterioration for native species, including endangered species. ??? Lake, stream and soil acidification is widespread across the eastern United States. Up to 65% of lakes within sensitive areas receive acid deposition that exceeds critical loads. ??? Mercury contamination adversely affects fish in many inland and coastal waters. Fish consumption advisories for mercury exist in all 50 states and on many tribal lands. High concentrations of mercury in wildlife are also widespread and have multiple adverse effects. ??? Air quality programs, such as those stemming from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, have helped decrease air pollution even as population and energy demand have increased. Yet, they do not adequately protect ecosystems from long-term damage. Moreover they do not address ammonia emissions. ??? A stronger ecosystem basis for air pollutant policies could be established through adoption of science-based thresholds. Existing monitoring programs track vital information needed to measure the response to policies, and could be expanded to include appropriate chemical and biological indicators for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and establishment of a national ecosystem monitoring network for mercury. The development and use of air pollution thresholds for ecosystem protection and management is increasing in the United States, yet threshold approaches remain underutilized. Ecological thresholds for air pollution, such as critical loads for nitrogen and sulfur deposition, are not currently included in the formal regulatory process for emissions controls in the United States, although they are now considered in local management decisions by the National Park Service and U.S. Forest Service. Ecological thresholds offer a scientifically sound approach to protecting and restoring U.S. ecosystems and an important tool for natural resource management and policy. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS2007

Use of multiple chemical tracers to define habitat use of Indo-Pacific mangrove crab, Scylla serrata (Decapoda: Portunidae)

The mangrove or mud crab, Scylla serrata, is an important component of mangrove fisheries throughout the Indo-Pacific. Understanding crab diets and habitat use should assist in managing these fisheries and could provide additional justification for conservation of the mangrove ecosystem itself. We used multiple chemical tracers to test whether crab movements were restricted to local mangrove forests, or extended to include adjacent seagrass beds and reef flats. We sampled three mangrove forests on the island of Kosrae in the Federated States of Micronesia at Lelu Harbor, Okat River, and Utwe tidal channel. Samples of S. serrata and likely food sources were analyzed for stable carbon (??13C), nitrogen (??15N), and sulfur (??34S) isotopes. Scylla serrata tissues also were analyzed for phosphorus (P), cations (K, Ca, Mg, Na), and trace elements (Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, and B). Discriminant analysis indicated that at least 87% of the crabs remain in each site as distinct populations. Crab stable isotope values indicated potential differences in habitat use within estuaries. Values for ??13C and ??34S in crabs from Okat and Utwe were low and similar to values expected from animals feeding within mangrove forests, e.g., feeding on infauna that had average ??13C values near -26.5???. In contrast, crabs from Lelu had higher ?? 13C and ??34S values, with average values of -21.8 and 7.8???, respectively. These higher isotope values are consistent with increased crab foraging on reef flats and seagrasses. Given that S. serrata have been observed feeding on adjacent reef and seagrass environments on Kosrae, it is likely that they move in and out of the mangroves for feeding. Isotope mixing model results support these conclusions, with the greatest mangrove ecosystem contribution to S. serrata diet occurring in the largest mangrove forests. Conserving larger island mangrove forests (> 1 km deep) appears to support crab foraging activities. ?? 2007 Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2010

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Status of the Sierra Nevada: the Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project

The Sierra Nevada ecosystem project was requested by Congress in the Conference Report for Interior and related Agencies 1993 Appropriation Act, which authorized funds for a scientific review of the remaining old growth in the national forests of the Sierra Nevada in California, and for a study of the entire Sierra Nevada ecosystem by an independent panel of scientists, with expertise in diverse areas related to this issue. This CD-ROM is a digital version of the set of reports titled 'Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project, final report to Congress' published in paper form by the Centers for Water and Wildland Resources of the University of California, Davis.

Data Series↗

USGS1997

The frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes and their influence on the structure of south Florida mangrove communities

Hurricanes are formidable forces that wreak havoc on society and nature alike. Mangrove ecosystems are especially vulnerable because they thrive in the intertidal zone of tropical regions where hurricanes originate and are most frequent. Because mangroves are found at the land-sea interface where hurricanes are often most intense, these coastal forests are subject to damage from both high wind and surge. Mangroves are also an important habitat for many colonial and migratory birds and other wildlife, along with being nursery grounds for our fisheries. The fate of mangrove habitat as influenced by hurricanes may be threatened in the future under a global warming environment that might yield more intense storms than have been previously observed. Simulation models of hurricane abiotics and mangrove community dynamics have been developed to evaluate the effects of hurricanes on mangrove habitat across the South Florida landscape. Model applications show that hurricane frequency and intensity have varied spatially across Florida’s lower peninsula over the last century of record. Hindcast simulations of actual hurricane tracks and conditions seem to account for the structural composition of modernday mangrove forests across South Florida. A recurrence interval of major storms every 30 years over the last century is the major factor controlling mangrove ecosystem dynamics in South Florida. Some climate change models predict an increase in hurricane intensity over the next century that may further alter the structure and composition of our mangrove ecosystems. Model results of climate change scenarios indicate that future mangrove forests are likely to be diminished in stature and perhaps include a higher proportion of red mangroves. This modeling approach offers the ability to assess decadal and longer time scale changes in hurricane behavior and its effects on community structure and distribution of important plant associations such as the fate of mangrove habitat.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Ecology↗