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USGS2011

Surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2026

Investigation of drivers and sources of potential harmful algal blooms in Lake Anna, Virginia, 2023-24

Algal blooms in freshwater reservoirs are an increasing concern because of the risk to aquatic ecosystem health, recreational use, and water quality. Among the taxa that comprise an algal bloom, cyanobacteria are of particular concern due to the potential to produce toxic compounds which can cause acute and chronic illness in humans if ingested through contaminated water or shellfish. When toxins are above a toxin-specific threshold in the water column, the Commonwealth of Virginia categorizes the bloom as a harmful algal bloom (HAB), distinguishing it from an algal bloom without toxins present. Toxins are of particular concern in bodies of water which serve as major recreational areas, such as Lake Anna in central Virginia. Lake Anna is a 27 km-long and 47 km2 reservoir in central Virginia. Since the Commonwealth of Virginia revised the HAB monitoring framework in 2018, algal bloom advisories for potentially toxigenic blooms have been issued in the western, riverine zone of the reservoir. There were detections of microcystin and anatoxin production but no detections of cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxin production in Lake Anna; however, toxin concentrations were low, at values less than 0.65 µg/L. In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a 19-month intensive and extensive study of western Lake Anna and its tributaries (North Anna River and Pamunkey Creek) to (1) characterize the algal community, biomass, and toxin production; (2) identify potential drivers leading to algal bloom initiation, persistence, and decline; and (3) assess the primary sources of the drivers contributing to algal blooms. Continuous and discrete monitoring of water quality within the lake, watershed inputs, meteorological conditions, and algal communities were monitored. Multiple modeling scenarios identified that the formation and persistence of algal blooms in Lake Anna are driven by interactions among chemical, macro- and micronutrient, and physical factors. Key drivers include total nitrogen, total phosphorus, water temperature, suspended sediment concentration, wind speed, copper, iron, molybdenum, nickel, sodium, and alkalinity. During this study, winter stormflow events delivered the highest loading of macro- and micronutrients from the tributaries to the lake. The lake is a sink for these nutrients in the water column or in the lake-bed sediments. During high-occupancy and recreation periods on the lake in the summer months, boating activity can promote internal loading by the resuspension of the lake-bed sediments, thereby increasing the nutrient availability for algal uptake. Thermal stratification and hypoxic conditions were observed, which can contribute to the passive release of nutrients into the water column, further facilitating algal bloom proliferation. These processes may create a positive feedback loop that supports the formation, persistence, and annual recurrence of algal blooms in the western region of Lake Anna. Continued water-quality monitoring of early warning indicators may improve the detection and forecasting of algal growth in the lake and help managers proactively manage water quality and algal growth.

EarthArXiv↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of modeling for groundwater flow and tetrachloroethylene transport in the Milford-Souhegan glacial-drift aquifer at the Savage Municipal Well Superfund site, Milford, New Hampshire, 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services entered into a cooperative agreement to assist in the evaluation of remedy simulations of the MSGD aquifer that are being performed by various parties to track the remedial progress of the PCE plume. This report summarizes findings from this evaluation. Topics covered include description of groundwater flow and transport models used in the study of the Savage Superfund site (section 2), evaluation of models and their results (section 3), testing of several new simulations (section 4), an assessment of the representation of models to simulate field conditions (section 5), and an assessment of models as a tool in remedial operational decision making (section 6).

New Hampshire↗

USGS2026

Long-term monitoring identifies increase in Henslow’s Sparrow (Centronyx henslowii) abundance following fire management in a North Carolina grassland

Understanding population responses to environmental change is critical for assessing vulnerability, resilience, and habitat management needs. We assessed Henslow’s Sparrow ( Centronyx henslowii ) abundance and breeding productivity in an isolated North Carolina grassland (1149 ha) that transitioned from unmanaged to fire-managed during 2011–2024. Fire management was initiated in 2016, where approximately 1/3 of the grassland is burned annually in late summer on a rotating basis, resulting in a full burn cycle of roughly three years. We used hierarchical distance sampling models to estimate the change in Henslow’s Sparrow abundance before and after fire management from point count data (45–50 locations surveyed annually). Estimated average abundances (i.e., expected number of singing male sparrows per site) significantly increased from 1.387 individuals per survey location pre-management (95% credible interval [CI]: 0.822–2.267) to 3.124 post-management (CI: 2.235–4.385), resulting in annual population sizes ranging from 56 singing male sparrows in 2012 (CI: 36–85), to 411 in 2022 (CI: 342–498). From 2022 to 2023, average brood size was 3.148 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.637–3.659) and survival probability for a 24-day nesting cycle was 0.693 (CI: 0.369–0.897). Apparent nesting success was 70–89%, much higher than reported in previous studies (19–62%). Increased abundance post-management indicates that Henslow’s Sparrows are responding positively to the use of prescribed fire, while the estimated rates of breeding productivity indicate the species likely has the capacity to sustain the local population. This study provides baseline information for managers to monitor population status, while laying the foundation to identify regulatory mechanisms and gauge the effectiveness of the current fire management strategy in maintaining an isolated population of Henslow’s Sparrows.

North Carolina↗

USGS2010

The use of scenario analysis to assess water ecosystem services in response to future land use change in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Human pressures on the natural resources of the United States have resulted in many unintended changes in our ecosystems, e.g., loss of biodiversity, habitat degradation, increases in the number of endangered species, and increases in contamination and water pollution. Environmental managers are concerned about broad-scale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on hydrologic and ecological processes that affect stream conditions. The type of land use and land cover has direct consequences for most ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality, erosion control, and biodiversity. As human pressure continues to increase, ecosystem services worldwide are projected to suffer continued loss and degradation, thus reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential goods and services that contribute to human well-being (MEA 2005). The ability to assess, report, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions which will maintain the sustainable nature of our environmental services and secure these resources into the future. This study presents an integrated approach to identify areas with potential water quality problems as a result of land cover change projected by stakeholders within a moderately large river basin in the Pacific Northwest (USA). A process-based hydrologic watershed model was used to examine the contribution of land use/land cover to sediment yield, and nitrate and phosphorous loadings, and identify subwatersheds within the Willamette River basin that would be most affected in the year 2050 relative to three possible future scenarios which include inherent differences related to conservation, existing planning trends, and open development. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of alternative future scenarios that describe varying degrees of urban development and human use on hydrological response related to water quality. Results of this study suggest that the amount of forest along streams and agriculture consistently explained a high percentage of variation in nutrients. The AGWA-SWAT model was used to simulate change in sediment yield, nitrate and phosphorus transported with surface runoff for the three future scenarios. With regard to nitrate, the greatest increase was associated with subwatersheds with agricultural land use and urban areas. Although the model predicted some improvement in basin headwaters for all scenarios, nitrate loadings are expected to decrease under the conservation scenario. The largest decrease was observed in the Coast Range. With regard to phosphorous loadings, the lowest reduction was observed in subwatersheds draining predominantly forest areas. The greatest increase was observed under the open development scenario in subwatersheds with agricultural land use. Urbanization and agriculture are presumed to be the major environmental stressors affecting watershed condition of the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Evaluating the utility of effective breeding size estimates for monitoring sea lamprey spawning abundance

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is an invasive species that is a significant source of mortality for populations of valued fish species across the North American Great Lakes. Large annual control programs are needed to reduce the species' impacts; however, the number of successfully spawning adults cannot currently be accurately assessed. In this study, effective breeding size ( N b ) and the minimum number of spawning adults ( N s ) were estimated for larval cohorts from 17 tributaries across all five Great Lakes using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) genotyped via RAD-capture sequencing. Reconstructed larval pedigrees showed substantial variability in the size and number of full- and half-sibling groups, N b (<1–367), and N s (5–545) among streams. Generalized linear models examining the effects of stream environmental characteristics and aspects of sampling regimes on N b and N s estimates identified sample size, the number of sampling sites, and drainage area as important factors predicting N b and N s . Correlations between N b , N s , and capture–mark–recapture estimates of adult census size ( N c ) increased when streams with small sample sizes ( n < 50) were removed. Results collectively indicate that parameters estimated from genetic data can provide valuable information on spawning adults in a river system, especially if sampling regimes are standardized and physical stream covariates are included.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Herpetofauna occupancy and community composition along a tidal swamp salinity gradient

Occupancy patterns of herpetofauna in most tidal freshwater swamps are unknown. Tidal freshwater swamps currently face multiple threats, including salinization, which can influence their associated plant and animal communities. The impacts of salinization to herpetofauna communities in tidal freshwater swamps have not been assessed. To improve predictions regarding these herpetofauna, we conducted surveys in tidal freshwater swamps of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge located in South Carolina, USA, from March to June, 2016 and 2017, using a variety of methods. Goals included inventorying species, determining communities, examining microhabitat associations, and modeling occupancy to predict the impacts of salinity changes. We detected 8 species of amphibians and 12 species of reptiles in our surveys. Community analyses failed to detect patterns related to measured environmental variables. Species richness and diversity declined along the salinity gradient, but the observed patterns did not match our predictions and may instead be related to site-level heterogeneity. Microhabitat associations were detected for two amphibian species via occupancy analyses. Occupancy and regression analyses indicated soil salinity may be a factor affecting nine species’ occurrences. Amphibian detections may be affected by water depth, pH values, and weather conditions. These results expand our understanding of herpetofauna within an understudied, and threatened, wetland type.

South Carolina↗

USGS2019

Reduced soil macropores and forest cover reduce warm-season baseflow below ecological thresholds in the upper Delaware River Basin

We examined the impacts of changes in land cover and soil conditions on the flow regime of the upper Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER). We simulated flows for two periods, circa 1600 and 1940, at three sites using the same temperature and precipitation conditions: the East Branch (EB), West Branch (WB), and mainstem Delaware River at Callicoon, NY. The 1600 period represented pristine forest and soils. The 1940 period included reduced forest cover, increased agriculture, and degraded soils with reduced soil macropore fractions. A model-sensitivity test examined the impact of soil macropore and land cover change separately. We assessed changes in flow regimes between the 1600 and 1940 periods using a variety of flow statistics, including established ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) thresholds. Reduced forest soil macropore fraction significantly reduced summer and fall base flows. The 1940 period had significantly lower Q50 flows (50% exceedance) than the 1600 period, as well as summer and fall Q90 and Q75-90 flows below the ELOHA thresholds. The 1- to 7-day minimum flows were also lower for the 1940 period, by 17% on the mainstem. 1940 flows were 6% more likely than the 1600 period to fall below the low-flow threshold for federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon) habitat. In contrast, the 1940 period had higher flows than the 1600 period from late fall to early winter.

New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2016

Application of frequency- and time-domain electromagnetic surveys to characterize hydrostratigraphy and landfill construction at the Amargosa Desert Research Site, Beatty, Nevada

In 2014 and 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), conducted frequency-domain electromagnetic (FDEM) surveys at the USGS Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS), approximately 17 kilometers (km) south of Beatty, Nevada. The FDEM surveys were conducted within and adjacent to a closed low-level radioactive waste disposal site located at the ADRS. FDEM surveys were conducted on a grid of north-south and east-west profiles to assess the locations and boundaries of historically recorded waste-disposal trenches. In 2015, the USGS conducted time-domain (TDEM) soundings along a profile adjacent to the disposal site (landfill) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), to assess the thickness and characteristics of the underlying deep unsaturated zone, and the hydrostratigraphy of the underlying saturated zone. FDEM survey results indicate the general location and extent of the waste-disposal trenches and reveal potential differences in material properties and the type and concentration of waste in several areas of the landfill. The TDEM surveys provide information on the underlying hydrostratigraphy and characteristics of the unsaturated zone that inform the site conceptual model and support an improved understanding of the hydrostratigraphic framework. Additional work is needed to interpret the TDEM results in the context of the local and regional structural geology.

Nevada↗

USGS2003

A strategy for mapping mid-scale existing vegetation in support of national fire fuel assessment

Geospatial distribution of natural vegetation is among the very important environmental parameters required for applications ranging from global climate change to monitoring of natural hazards, monitoring of ecosystem vitality, and fire management practices. Increasingly sophisticated applications require vegetation datasets to cover large areas at a suitable scale and provide sufficiently detailed information. In this paper, we describe a research effort to develop a remote sensing methodology capable of producing 30-meter resolution, wall-to-wall coverage of existing vegetation types and structure variables in support of a multi-agency fire fuels and fire risks assessment project. Success of this remote sensing research effort is dependent on improved sensor and data qualities, a thorough understanding of regional and local vegetation ecology, successful integration of remote sensing with a large amount of field plot data, and flexible mapping algorithms. Preliminary results produced in the Wasatch Range and Uinta Mountains of central Utah include 28 vegetation types with an overall accuracy of 60% (average by life forms), percent canopy density (sub-pixel density) of forest, shrub, and herbaceous cover (correlation coefficient of 89, 60, and 55% respectively), and average top canopy height of forest, shrub, and herbaceous cover (correlation coefficient of 73, 50, 20% respectively). Techniques to improve the first-round results are discussed, including refinements of mapping models and use of relevant environmental gradients and potential vegetation classification associated with actual vegetation types.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Assessing stand water use in four coastal wetland forests using sapflow techniques: annual estimates, errors and associated uncertainties

Forests comprise approximately 37% of the terrestrial land surface and influence global water cycling. However, very little attention has been directed towards understanding environmental impacts on stand water use ( S ) or in identifying rates of S from specific forested wetlands. Here, we use sapflow techniques to address two separate but linked objectives: (1) determine S in four, hydrologically distinctive South Carolina (USA) wetland forests from 2009–2010 and (2) describe potential error, uncertainty and stand-level variation associated with these assessments. Sapflow measurements were made from a number of tree species for approximately 2–8 months over 2 years to initiate the model, which was applied to canopy trees (DBH > 10–20 cm). We determined that S in three healthy forested wetlands varied from 1.97–3.97 mm day −1 or 355–687 mm year −1 when scaled. In contrast, saltwater intrusion impacted individual tree physiology and size class distributions on a fourth site, which decreased S to 0.61–1.13 mm day −1 or 110–196 mm year −1 . The primary sources of error in estimations using sapflow probes would relate to calibration of probes and standardization relative to no flow periods and accounting for accurate sapflow attenuation with radial depth into the sapwood by species and site. Such inherent variation in water use among wetland forest stands makes small differences in S (<200 mm year −1 ) difficult to detect statistically through modelling, even though small differences may be important to local water cycling. These data also represent some of the first assessments of S from temperate, coastal forested wetlands along the Atlantic coast of the USA.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2010

Quantifying data worth toward reducing predictive uncertainty

The present study demonstrates a methodology for optimization of environmental data acquisition. Based on the premise that the worth of data increases in proportion to its ability to reduce the uncertainty of key model predictions, the methodology can be used to compare the worth of different data types, gathered at different locations within study areas of arbitrary complexity. The method is applied to a hypothetical nonlinear, variable density numerical model of salt and heat transport. The relative utilities of temperature and concentration measurements at different locations within the model domain are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with predictions of movement of the salt water interface in response to a decrease in fresh water recharge. In order to test the sensitivity of the method to nonlinear model behavior, analyses were repeated for multiple realizations of system properties. Rankings of observation worth were similar for all realizations, indicating robust performance of the methodology when employed in conjunction with a highly nonlinear model. The analysis showed that while concentration and temperature measurements can both aid in the prediction of interface movement, concentration measurements, especially when taken in proximity to the interface at locations where the interface is expected to move, are of greater worth than temperature measurements. Nevertheless, it was also demonstrated that pairs of temperature measurements, taken in strategic locations with respect to the interface, can also lead to more precise predictions of interface movement. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Ground Water↗

USGS2020

Groundwater-quality and select quality-control data from the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, January through December 2016, and previously unpublished data from 2013 to 2015

Environmental groundwater-quality data were collected from 648 wells as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Program and are included in this report. Most of the wells (514) were sampled from January through December 2016, and 60 of them were sampled in 2013 and 74 in 2014. The data were collected from seven types of well networks: principal aquifer study networks, which are used to assess the quality of groundwater used for public-water supply; land-use study networks, which are used to assess land-use effects on shallow groundwater quality; major aquifer study networks, which are used to assess the quality of groundwater used for domestic supply; enhanced trends networks, which are used to evaluate the time scales during which groundwater quality changes; vertical flow-path study networks, which are used to evaluate changes in groundwater quality from shallow to deeper depths; flow-path study networks, which are used to evaluate changes in groundwater quality from shallow to deeper depths over a horizontal distance; and modeling support studies, which are used to provide data to support groundwater modeling. Groundwater samples were analyzed for many water-quality indicators and constituents, including major ions, nutrients, trace elements, volatile organic compounds, pesticides, radionuclides, and some constituents of special interest (arsenic speciation, chromium [VI], and perchlorate). These groundwater-quality data, along with data from quality-control samples, are tabulated in this report and in an associated data release. Some data from environmental samples collected in 2013–14 and quality-control samples collected in 2012–15 also are included in the associated data release. Data from samples collected in 2016 are associated with networks described in this report and have not been published previously; data from samples collected between 2012 and 2015 are associated with networks described in previous reports in this data series.

Data Series↗

USGS2020

Fate and behavior tools related to inland spill response—Workshop on the U.S. Geological Survey’s role in Federal science support

Executive Summary There is a growing body of tools available for science support for determining the fate and behavior of industrial and agricultural chemicals that are rapidly injected (“spilled”) into aquatic environments. A 2-day roundtable-style workshop was held by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Middleton, Wisconsin, in December 2017 to describe and explore existing Federal science support for spill fate and behavior tools used for inland spills, ongoing and new fate and behavior studies, and science gaps in planning and response tools as part of the USGS Midcontinent Region’s efforts to include spill response as part of its strategic plans. A total of 28 attendees representing a variety of Federal, State, and regional entities presented on programs and tools used in various aspects of spill response. Most programs and tools discussed were for spills in riverine environments but tools and applications for spills in lakes, on land surfaces, in urban storm sewer networks, and groundwater also were discussed. A primary workshop focus was to facilitate communication and increase potential for future collaboration among agencies for inland spill science support. The role and need for more USGS science support within the inland spill community was discussed. Enhanced communication is needed within the USGS and the U.S. Department of the Interior science programs, as well as within and among other agencies that do emergency planning and response. A main conclusion of the workshop was that there are untapped resources of the USGS outlined in the agency’s science strategy that could strengthen science support for fate and behavior tools in inland areas, especially in the Upper Mississippi River, Ohio River, and Great Lakes Basins where large freshwater resources overlap with dense corridors of oil and hazardous substances, with transportation networks, and with large populations centers. Fate and behavior tools are being developed quickly for inland spill response by multiple Federal agencies in partnership with local and regional entities. Applicability of these tools ranges from planning and preparedness, to the early stages of spill response for protection of human life and property, and to the application of monitoring and models to assess the long-term consequences of spills. Key findings from the workshop, with an emphasis on potential further development of USGS science support, include the following: •The national and regional response to spills occurs within an established system that must be respected by all parties involved in spill response. The USGS’s role is to support spill responders who are physically working at a spill scene, deploying booms and using other efforts to contain and recover spilled materials. •The USGS has tools that have been used throughout spill response operations, from early response to recovery and restoration. Developing a more formal role for the USGS to participate in science support for inland spills on a consistent basis is a desired outcome. This will require the USGS to improve internal and external communication and would be best accomplished by assigning one or more coordinator positions within the agency to plan and oversee USGS spill-response efforts. More involvement of the USGS on National and Regional Response Teams, especially in the realm of the Science and Technology Subcommittees, will gofar in increasing external communication and integration of fate and behavior tools. •Rapid response to spills requires modeling and mapping of plumes and associated time-of-travel estimation for a range of stream sizes across the United States. Many existing models use USGS streamgage data and the USGS National Hydrography Dataset. Nearly all existing models would benefit from updated linkages to USGS StreamStats and its soon-to-be released time-of-travel estimates,real-time velocity, stream morphology, and slope data. Integrating USGS tools with those from other agencies could be done to better serve the larger spill response community. • A problem is that existing models to rapidly predict plume extent, as well as more followup/longer-term fate and transport models, can be unknown or unavailable to spill responders. Thus, creating and strengthening linkages among USGS scientists skilled at using these tools is needed to support spill response with the on-scene responders. • Research for inland spill fate and behavior done outside of an immediate spill response can assist with spill planning and preparedness by (1) revealing sites likely to experience spills in the future (high-risk sites) and (2) understanding how a spilled substance might behave under a range of environmental conditions. However, USGS research on this topic has been scarce and subject to funding availability. Examples include the 2010 Line 6B Spill release into the Kalamazoo River in Michigan, where the USGS provided science support for a variety of fate and behavior tools for stream and impoundment environments. A long-term research site in Bemidji, Minnesota, provides important insights into transformations and longevity of spilled oil in groundwater and groundwater-surface water interactions. • Linking stream models to other components of this inland environment, including groundwater, overland flow, and karst, is needed. Stream network data can be linked to underground conduits such as storm sewers and karst groundwater systems. Stream models can also be linked with geospatial data such as that contained in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s interactive mapping tools. • The USGS is uniquely qualified to collect water-quality data during spills in the United States because of its many geographically dispersed water science centers, its knowledge and preparedness for flood measurement and documentation, and its cadre of skilled water-quality employees. Rapid-deployment gages, used for floods, could also be used for spills if they included spill-specific sensors. Coordinated expertise at USGS water and environmental science centers can be used for monitoring spill effects and for assessing risk to water quality and ecological communities. • Scientists at the USGS have proven capable of providing science coordination and technical assistance within the Incident Command Structure at the request of the lead on-scene coordinator. This external coordination, as well as internal communication within USGS Water, Hazards, and Ecosystems Mission Areas, could be improved by establishing and naming a USGS spills coordinator. Scott Morlock, Jo Ellen Hinck, and Faith Fitzpatrick are currently (2017) serving in informal coordination roles in addition to their traditional duties.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

The where and why of large wood occurrence in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

Large wood (LW) plays important geomorphic and ecological roles in rivers and is widely used as a restoration tool. Changes to floodplain land use and historical removal have altered wood dynamics in fluvial systems globally. We know little about the distribution and dynamics of LW in great rivers (approximately >10 5 km 2 ) like the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers despite its ecosystem importance and use in restoration projects. We assessed LW occurrence data collected by the fisheries component of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program's Long Term Resource Monitoring element. We analysed 25 years of data collected across six reaches of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers that represented contrasting physiographic settings, and across four aquatic area types comprising gradients of hydrology, connectivity and geomorphology. We tested hypotheses on drivers of LW occurrence using generalised linear mixed effects models, where occurrence was predicted by reach- and local-scale environmental variables. Occurrence varied significantly across reaches and aquatic area types. In general, wood occurred more frequently upriver and in side channels compared to other aquatic areas. Large wood was most strongly predicted systemically by reach identity but not local-scale variables, underscoring the importance of broad-scale physiographic gradients in defining hydrogeomorphic processes. Floodplain forests and shoreline revetment were consistently important predictors across reaches. Our findings show that the spatial variability of LW occurrence reflects the physical variability of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. They also reveal the value in using geomorphic classifications as frameworks for understanding physical processes like LW dynamics because of their ability to contextualise site-scale conditions. The baseline understanding of LW abundance across different hydrogeomorphic gradients and scales presented here can give insight into how to more effectively target restoration efforts in great rivers and contribute to a broader understanding of LW dynamics where such studies have been lacking.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Primary sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to streambed sediment in Great Lakes tributaries using multiple lines of evidence

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most widespread and potentially toxic contaminants in Great Lakes (USA/Canada) tributaries. The sources of PAHs are numerous and diverse, and identifying the primary source(s) can be difficult. The present study used multiple lines of evidence to determine the likely sources of PAHs to surficial streambed sediments at 71 locations across 26 Great Lakes Basin watersheds. Profile correlations, principal component analysis, positive matrix factorization source‐receptor modeling, and mass fractions analysis were used to identify potential PAH sources, and land‐use analysis was used to relate streambed sediment PAH concentrations to different land uses. Based on the common conclusion of these analyses, coal‐tar–sealed pavement was the most likely source of PAHs to the majority of the locations sampled. The potential PAH‐related toxicity of streambed sediments to aquatic organisms was assessed by comparison of concentrations with sediment quality guidelines. The sum concentration of 16 US Environmental Protection Agency priority pollutant PAHs was 7.4–196 000 µg/kg, and the median was 2600 µg/kg. The threshold effect concentration was exceeded at 62% of sampling locations, and the probable effect concentration or the equilibrium partitioning sediment benchmark was exceeded at 41% of sampling locations. These results have important implications for watershed managers tasked with protecting and remediating aquatic habitats in the Great Lakes Basin.

Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Wisc↗

USGS2020

Assessing the vulnerability of military installations in the coterminous United States to potential biome shifts resulting from rapid climate change

Climate change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge future military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, invasive species, etc. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low - B1, moderate - A1B and high - A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess vulnerability of installations (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature relative to historical conditions. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of military training and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased atmospheric temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in the coming decades in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connectic↗

USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that are acutely experiencing effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a critical traditional subsistence resource for indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with four potential climate/disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic–pessimistic) which simulates Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the 21 st century. We considered two types of harvest strategies: (1) adaptive harvest scenarios wherein harvest is calculated as a percentage of the population and annual harvests are updated at set intervals as the population is reassessed, and (2) non-adaptive harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest remains constant. All climate/disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the 21 st century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that an adaptive annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, representing contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability (>70% probability of maintaining population abundance above maximum net productivity level) under all climate/disturbance scenarios, accepting a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This suggests that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the harvest adapts to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations suggest that a sustainable non-adaptive harvest is also possible, but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females (equivalent to contemporary harvest levels of 1.23) exceeded our criterion for sustainability and resulted in a >5% chance of quasi-extinction by the end of the 21 st century under three of the four climate/disturbance scenarios we evaluated. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive co-management strategies, and we suggest such modeling frameworks are useful for managing for harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

BioRxiv↗