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USGS2004

Nutrient controls on biocomplexity of mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove forests are important coastal ecosystems that provide a variety of ecological and societal services. These intertidal, tree-dominated communities along tropical coastlines are often described as “simple systems,” compared to other tropical forests with larger numbers of plant species and multiple understory strata; however, mangrove ecosystems have complex trophic structures, and organisms exhibit unique physiological, morphological, and behavioral adaptations to environmental conditions characteristic of the land-sea interface. Biogeochemical functioning of mangrove forests is also controlled by interactions among the microbial, plant, and animal communities and feedback linkages mediated by hydrology and other forcing functions. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to understand more fully the impact of nutrient variability on these delicate and important ecosystems.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2003

Responses of infaunal populations to benthoscape structure and the potential importance of transition zones

Relationships between population abundance and seafloor landscape, or benthoscape, structure were examined for 16 infaunal taxa in eastern Long Island Sound. Based on analyses of a side-scan sonar mosaic, the 19.4-km 2 study area was comprised of six distinct large-scale (> km 2 ) benthoscape elements, with varying levels of mesoscale (km 2 -m 2 ) and small-scale (< m 2 ) physical and biological habitat heterogeneity. Transition zones among elements varied from ~50 to 200 m in width, comprised ~32% of the benthoscape, and added to overall benthoscape heterogeneity. Population abundances of nine taxa varied significantly among the large-scale elements. Most species were found at high abundances only in one benthoscape element, but three had several foci of elevated abundances. Analyses of population responses to habitat heterogeneity at different spatial scales indicated that abundances of eight taxa varied significantly among spatial scales, but the significant scales were mixed among these species. Relatively large residual variations suggest significant amounts of mesoscale spatial variation were unaccounted for, varying from ~1 km 2 to several m 2 . Responses to transition zones were mixed as well. Abundances of nine taxa varied significantly among transition zones and interiors of benthoscape elements, most with elevated abundances in transition zones. Our results show that infaunal populations exhibit complex and spatially varying patterns of abundance in relation to benthoscape structure and suggest that mesoscale variation may be particularly critical in this regard. Also, transition zones among benthoscape features add considerably to this variation and may be ecological important areas in seafloor environments.

New York↗

USGS2018

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

Executive Summary—Overview Natural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans. This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts. Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on resource systems, both must confront the analytical challenges of systems modeling—in terms of complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty. Given this affinity, the integration of ecosystem services analysis and adaptive management poses few conceptual hurdles. In this report, we synthesize discussions from two workshops that considered ways in which adaptive management approaches and ecosystem service concepts may be complementary, such that integrating them into a common framework may lead to improved natural resource management outcomes. Although the literature on adaptive management and ecosystem services is vast and growing, the report focuses specifically on the integration of these two concepts rather than aiming to provide new definitions or an indepth review or primer of the concepts individually. Key issues considered include the bidirectional links between adaptive decision making and ecosystem services, as well as the potential benefits and inevitable challenges arising in the development and use of an integrated framework. Specifically, the workshops addressed the following questions: How can application of ecosystem service analysis within an adaptive decision process improve the outcomes of management and advance understanding of ecosystem service identification, production, and valuation? How can these concepts be integrated in concept and practice? What are the constraints and challenges to integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services? And, should the integration of these concepts be moved forward to wider application—and if so, how?

Circular↗

USGS2012

The walk is never random: subtle landscape effects shape gene flow in a continuous white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States

One of the pervasive challenges in landscape genetics is detecting gene flow patterns within continuous populations of highly mobile wildlife. Understanding population genetic structure within a continuous population can give insights into social structure, movement across the landscape and contact between populations, which influence ecological interactions, reproductive dynamics or pathogen transmission. We investigated the genetic structure of a large population of deer spanning the area of Wisconsin and Illinois, USA, affected by chronic wasting disease. We combined multiscale investigation, landscape genetic techniques and spatial statistical modelling to address the complex questions of landscape factors influencing population structure. We sampled over 2000 deer and used spatial autocorrelation and a spatial principal components analysis to describe the population genetic structure. We evaluated landscape effects on this pattern using a spatial autoregressive model within a model selection framework to test alternative hypotheses about gene flow. We found high levels of genetic connectivity, with gradients of variation across the large continuous population of white-tailed deer. At the fine scale, spatial clustering of related animals was correlated with the amount and arrangement of forested habitat. At the broader scale, impediments to dispersal were important to shaping genetic connectivity within the population. We found significant barrier effects of individual state and interstate highways and rivers. Our results offer an important understanding of deer biology and movement that will help inform the management of this species in an area where overabundance and disease spread are primary concerns.

Illinois, Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Anthropogenic land‐use change intensifies the effect of low flows on stream fishes

As ecosystems experience simultaneous disturbances, it is critical to understand how multiple stressors interact to affect ecological change. Land‐use change and extreme flow events are two important stressors that could interact to affect fish populations. We evaluated the individual and interactive effects of discharge and land‐use change associated with oil and natural gas development on populations of two stream fishes over a 7‐year period. We used repeated‐state (i.e. abundance trends) and rate (i.e. colonization and persistence) responses to advance our understanding of flow‐ecology relationships in a multiple‐stressor framework. Overall, fish abundance, colonization and persistence declined as discharge decreased. The effect of land‐use change associated with oil and natural gas development differed between species, with the abundance of Mottled Sculpin declining and Mountain Sucker increasing as land‐use change increased. We found both synergistic and antagonistic interactions between discharge and land‐use change. Land‐use change intensified the effect of low flows for Mottled Sculpin and lead to greater variability in responses to flow for Mountain Sucker. These differences between species' responses are likely due to differences in their physiological tolerances and behavioural adaptations to disturbance. Synthesis and applications . Our research provides empirical evidence for the complex interactions that can arise between discharge and anthropogenic land‐use change. Management efforts to reduce inputs of sediments and chemical contaminants associated with land‐use change (e.g. silt fences, vegetative buffers) and promote quality refuge habitats (i.e. in‐stream habitat restoration) could help mitigate the negative effects of low‐flow extremes on stream fishes. Further development of flow‐ecology relationships in a multiple‐stressor framework will help guide management of stream fishes, and provide a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying responses of different species.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative↗

USGS2026

Timing, uncertainty, and opportunity cost: Lessons for ecosystem modification on the Colorado River

While conservation goals have long been pursued through traditional species-augmenting actions, a broader set of episodic ecosystem modification (EEM) actions, such as hydropower dam releases, prescribed fire, and beach nourishment, is garnering attention. EEM actions face several implementation challenges stemming from high opportunity costs, delayed effect mechanisms, reliance on monitoring for deployment timing, and outcome uncertainty due to infrequent use. In this paper, we study the use of EEM actions in the form of designer flows—ecologically-motivated releases of water into regulated river segments—to maintain a viable population of a threatened native fish species in the Colorado River. We demonstrate how the cost-effectiveness of EEM actions can be hampered by the complex and delayed effects on species viability, but enhanced through targeted monitoring for timing deployment and experimentation for reducing uncertainty about effectiveness.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2025

Learning complex spatial dynamics of wildlife diseases with machine learning-guided partial differential equations

Emerging wildlife pathogens often display geographic variability due to landscape heterogeneity. Modeling approaches capable of learning complex, non-linear spatial dynamics of diseases are needed to rigorously assess and mitigate the effects of pathogens on wildlife health and biodiversity. We propose a novel machine learning (ML)-guided approach that leverages prior physical knowledge of ecological systems, using partial differential equations. We present our approach, taking advantage of the universal function approximation property of neural networks for flexible representation of the underlying dynamics of the geographic spread and growth of wildlife diseases. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by comparing its forecasting power with commonly used methods and highlighting the obtained insights on disease dynamics. Additionally, we show the theoretical guarantees for the approximation error of our model. We illustrate the implementation of our ML-guided approach using data from white-nose syndrome (WNS) outbreaks in bat populations across the US. WNS is an infectious fungal disease responsible for significant declines in bat populations. Our results on WNS are useful for disease surveillance and bat conservation efforts. Our methods can be broadly used to assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic drivers impacting wildlife health and biodiversity.

Environmental Data Science↗

USGS2013

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified. A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa , the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating. We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified. Synthesis and applications . The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2010

Genetic landscapes GIS Toolbox: Tools to map patterns of genetic divergence and diversity.

The Landscape Genetics GIS Toolbox contains tools that run in the Geographic Information System software, ArcGIS ® , to map genetic landscapes and to summarize multiple genetic landscapes as average and variance surfaces. These tools can be used to visualize the distribution of genetic diversity across geographic space and to study associations between patterns of genetic diversity and geographic features or other geo‐referenced environmental data sets. Together, these tools create genetic landscape surfaces directly from tables containing genetic distance or diversity data and sample location coordinates, greatly reducing the complexity of building and analyzing these raster surfaces in a Geographic Information System.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2016

Dynamic social networks based on movement

Network modeling techniques provide a means for quantifying social structure in populations of individuals. Data used to define social connectivity are often expensive to collect and based on case-specific, ad hoc criteria. Moreover, in applications involving animal social networks, collection of these data is often opportunistic and can be invasive. Frequently, the social network of interest for a given population is closely related to the way individuals move. Thus, telemetry data, which are minimally invasive and relatively inexpensive to collect, present an alternative source of information. We develop a framework for using telemetry data to infer social relationships among animals. To achieve this, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with an underlying dynamic social network controlling movement of individuals via two mechanisms: an attractive effect and an aligning effect. We demonstrate the model and its ability to accurately identify complex social behavior in simulation, and apply our model to telemetry data arising from killer whales. Using auxiliary information about the study population, we investigate model validity and find the inferred dynamic social network is consistent with killer whale ecology and expert knowledge.

The Annals of Applied Statistics↗

USGS2005

Grass buffers for playas in agricultural landscapes: A literature synthesis

We summarize current knowledge about grass buffers for protecting small, isolated wetlands in agricultural contexts, including information relevant to protecting playas from runoff containing sediments, nutrients, pesticides, and other contaminants, and information on how buffers may affect densities and productivity of grassland birds. Land-uses surrounding the approximately 60,000 playas within the Playa Lakes Region (PLR), including intensive agriculture, feedlots, and oil extraction, can contribute to severe degradation of playas. Farming and grazing can lead to significant sedimentation in nearby playas, eliminating their ability to hold water, support the region’s biodiversity, or adequately recharge aquifers. Contaminants further degrade habitats and threaten the water quality of underlying aquifers, including the Ogallala Aquifer. Grass buffers hold promise as a management tool to reduce the amount of sediments and contaminants from agricultural runoff that enters playas. Effective buffer width is determined by acceptable sediment-reduction levels, potential water flow and velocity, landscape and soil variables, buffer species, and vegetation structure. Various models have been developed to predict buffer effectiveness; however, most of these models, including those provided by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS), remain unvalidated. The majority of buffer-effectiveness literature is based on simulated conditions in experimental trays or plots; no published studies of buffer design or effectiveness specifically address playas. Nonetheless, some general patterns have emerged regarding buffer design/effectiveness. Buffers 10–60 m wide are generally considered adequate for trapping most sediments, although in some cases buffers need to be >200 m. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Partners for Wildlife Program in the Southern High Plains recommend a buffer width of ~33 m planted with a diverse mix of native shortgrasses and mixed grasses as a starting point. Most dissolved contaminants, however, are removed from runoff only when they infiltrate the soil, where microbes or other processes can break down or sequester contaminants. Promoting runoff infiltration requires wider buffers with denser stem densities than those required for filtering sediments, which may result in hydrological changes in playas. Ultimately, the balance between runoff and infiltration determines whether or not water eventually reaches a given basin. Long-term buffer effectiveness requires regular maintenance, including excavation to remove overburdens of sediments, repairing vegetation damage, and removing over-mature vegetation or invasions of noxious weeds. Buffers may not be enough to protect playas; best management practices (BMPs; e.g., conservation tillage, contour tilling, and mulching herbicides into soil after application) that diminish soil erosion and contaminant runoff also may be necessary. Nutrient loads in runoff can be minimized by balancing nutrient input with nutrient requirements for livestock and crops. Pesticide application practices also require careful evaluation. Mowing or grazing rather than use of herbicides offer alternatives for suppressing invasive or undesirable plant species in buffers. Future research should entail multiple-scale approaches at regional, wetland-complex, and individual watershed scales. Information needs include direct measures of buffer effectiveness in ‘real-world’ systems, refinement and field tests of buffer-effectiveness models, how buffers may affect floral and faunal communities of playas, and basic ecological information on playa function and playa wildlife ecology. Understanding how wildlife communities respond to patch size and habitat fragmentation is crucial for addressing questions regarding habitat quality of grass buffers in playa systems.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An empirical model

Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) was used to provide empirical estimates of the sources, fate, and transport of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and the mean annual TN and TP flux to the bay and in each of 80,579 nontidal tributary stream reaches. Restoration efforts in recent decades have been insufficient to meet established standards for water quality and ecological conditions in Chesapeake Bay. The bay watershed includes 166,000 square kilometers of mixed land uses, multiple nutrient sources, and variable hydrogeologic, soil, and weather conditions, and bay restoration is complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources and complex interacting factors affecting the occurrence, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus from source areas to streams and the estuary. Effective and efficient nutrient management at the regional scale in support of Chesapeake Bay restoration requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed, which is only available through regional models. The current models, Chesapeake Bay nutrient SPARROW models, version 4 (CBTN_v4 and CBTP_v4), were constructed at a finer spatial resolution than previous SPARROW models for the Chesapeake Bay watershed (versions 1, 2, and 3), and include an updated timeframe and modified sources and other explantory terms. Chesapeake Bay receives an estimated 1.32 x 10 8 kilograms (132,000 metric tons) of nitrogen and 9.74 x 10 6 kilograms (9,740 metric tons) of phosphorus annually from its watershed, mainly through its two largest tributaries, the Susquehanna and Potomac Rivers. Significant (α=0.10) sources of nutrients to streams in the watershed include fertilizer and manure applications in agricultural areas, undifferentiated urban activities, point sources, atmospheric deposition and direct fixation by crops (for nitrogen), and mineral sources (for phosphorus). Agriculture (primarily fertilizer applications and crop fixation) contributes more than half of the nitrogen delivered from the watershed to the bay; phosphorus contributions are more mixed, and fairly evenly distributed among agricultural (fertilizer and manure applications) and urban (including point) sources. Natural mineral dissolution contributes approximately 14 percent of the phosphorus flux from the watershed to the Chesapeake Bay. Empirical estimates of average yields from different source areas and of the portion of selected applications delivered to streams agree closely with previously reported values in the literature. Nutrient fate and transport through the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the bay reflect the diferent physical and chemical properties of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds. Groundwater is an important pathway for nitrogen transport (as nitrate), and TN flux is greatest in areas with greater groundwater flow and in areas of the Piedmont underlain by carbonate rocks. TN flux decreases with increasing vegetative growth (likely indicative of plant uptake) and soil available water capacity (likely indicative of reducing conditions). Phosphorus transport to streams, conversely, is greatest in areas most likely to generate overland runoff and related erosion, including those with less permeable and more erodible soils and greater precipitation. Phosphorus transport also is greater in the Coastal Plain than in other areas, possibly due to saturation of soils with historical phosphorus applications. Both nitrogen and phosphorus are lost within watershed impoundments (lakes, ponds, or reservoirs), and nitrogen is also lost significantly along flowing reaches, particularly in small streams and in larger streams in warmer areas.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2022

Projecting the remaining habitat for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii) in heavily urbanized southern California

Extensive urbanization in coastal southern California has reduced natural habitat in this biodiversity hotspot. To better conserve ecological communities, state and federal agencies, along with local jurisdictions and private stakeholders, developed regional conservation plans for southern California. Although many protected areas exist within this region, the patchwork nature of these protected areas might not provide good coverage for species that require multiple habitat components, such as amphibians with complex life histories. Because of declines in the past century, the status of the western spadefoot ( Spea hammondii ) in southern California is of concern to state and federal wildlife agencies. Species distribution models (SDMs) can aid in determining the conservation status of imperiled species by projecting where suitable habitat remains and how much is protected from further development. We built SDMs that integrated site-occupancy data from systematic pitfall trapping surveys and presence-only data from biodiversity databases and citizen science platforms to project the current distribution of western spadefoots in southern California. Western spadefoot occurrence was positively related to the cover of grassland or shrub/scrub and the % sand in the soil within a 1000 m buffer, and was negatively related to slope, elevation, and distance to ephemeral streams or vernal pools . Most of the remaining unprotected habitat for western spadefoots is in the southern half of its historical range in western San Diego and Riverside counties. A few large tracts of spadefoot habitat exist on U.S. Department of Defense lands and smaller tracts remain on ecological reserves owned by state and local government agencies. Only small patches of habitat remain in the northern half of this clade’s historical range in Ventura, Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties. Existing regional conservation plans provide ostensible spatial coverage of the majority of extant habitat for western spadefoots in southern California, but most of the habitat within the jurisdiction of these plans lacks formal protection, exposing this species to further declines as urbanization continues in the 21st century.

California↗

USGS2018

Challenges of forecasting flooding on coral reef–lined coasts

Understanding wave-driven coastal flooding is a challenging scientific problem; the need for forecasts is becoming more urgent because of sea level rise, climate change, and ever-growing coastal populations. The tools developed for sandy shorelines are generally not applicable to coral reef–lined coasts with their complex bathymetry, hydrodynamically rough reef platforms, steep and poorly sorted beaches, and low coastal elevations. Advances in understanding and predicting flooding on coral reef–lined coasts thus require concerted efforts from a number of disciplines, including climatology, oceanography, geology, and ecology.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗

USGS2009

Salton Sea Ecosystem Monitoring Project

The Salton Sea is critically important for wintering and breeding waterbirds, but faces an uncertain future due to water delivery reductions imposed by the Interstate and Federal Quantification Settlement Agreement of 2003. The current preferred alternative for wetland restoration at the Salton Sea is saline habitat impoundments created to mitigate the anticipated loss of wetland habitat. In 2006, a 50-hectare experimental complex that consisted of four inter-connected, shallow water saline habitat ponds (SHP) was constructed at the southeastern shoreline of the Salton Sea and flooded with blended waters from the Alamo River and Salton Sea. The present study evaluated ecological risks and benefits of the SHP concept prior to widespread restoration actions. This study was designed to evaluate (1) baseline chemical, nutrient, and contaminant measures from physical and biological constituents, (2) aquatic invertebrate community structure and colonization patterns, and (3) productivity of and contaminant risks to nesting waterbirds at the SHP. These factors were evaluated and compared with those of nearby waterbird habitat, that is, reference sites.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1986

Annotated bibliography of the hydrology, geology, and geothermal research of the Jemez Mountains and vicinity, north-central New Mexico

The Jemez Mountains volcanic complex, located in north-central New Mexico at the intersection of the Rio Grande rift and Jemez lineament, is a potential location for geothermal energy exploration. This bibliography lists selected papers pertaining to the geology, hydrology, geochemistry, geothermometry, geophysics, ecology, and geothermal and hydrologic modeling aspects of the Jemez region. The bibliography is composed of 795 citations with annotations and a subject and author index. (USGS)

New Mexico↗

USGS2017

Species interactions and the effects of climate variability on a wetland amphibian metacommunity

Disentangling the role that multiple interacting factors have on species responses to shifting climate poses a significant challenge. However, our ability to do so is of utmost importance to predict the effects of climate change on species distributions. We examined how populations of three species of wetland-breeding amphibians, which varied in life history requirements, responded to a six-year period of extremely variable precipitation. This interval was punctuated by both extensive drought and heavy precipitation and flooding, providing a natural experiment to measure community responses to environmental perturbations. We estimated occurrence dynamics using a discrete hidden Markov modeling approach that incorporated information regarding habitat state and predator–prey interactions. This approach allowed us to measure how metapopulation dynamics of each amphibian species was affected by interactions among weather, wetland hydroperiod, and co-occurrence with fish predators. The pig frog, a generalist, proved most resistant to perturbations, with both colonization and persistence being unaffected by seasonal variation in precipitation or co-occurrence with fishes. The ornate chorus frog, an ephemeral wetland specialist, responded positively to periods of drought owing to increased persistence and colonization rates during periods of low-rainfall. Low probabilities of occurrence of the ornate chorus frog in long-duration wetlands were driven by interactions with predators due to low colonization rates when fishes were present. The mole salamander was most sensitive to shifts in water availability. In our study area, this species never occurred in short-duration wetlands and persistence probabilities decreased during periods of drought. At the same time, negative effects occurred with extreme precipitation because flooding facilitated colonization of fishes to isolated wetlands and mole salamanders did not colonize wetlands once fishes were present. We demonstrate that the effects of changes in water availability depend on interactions with predators and wetland type and are influenced by the life history of each of our species. The dynamic species occurrence modeling approach we used offers promise for other systems when the goal is to disentangle the complex interactions that determine species responses to environmental variability.

Florida↗