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1,150 records · Page 38Linked to original sources

Borehole geophysical time-series logging to monitor passive ISCO treatment of residual chlorinated-ethenes in a confining bed, NAS Pensacola, Florida

In-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) is a common method to remediate chlorinated ethene contaminants in groundwater. Monitoring the effectiveness of ISCO can be hindered because of insufficient observations to assess oxidant delivery. Advantageously, potassium permanganate, one type of oxidant, provides the opportunity to use its strong electrical signal as a surrogate to track oxidant delivery using time-series borehole geophysical methods, like electromagnetic (EM) induction logging. Here we report a passive ISCO (P-ISCO) experiment, using potassium permanganate cylinders emplaced in boreholes, at a chlorinated ethene contamination site, Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida. The contaminants are found primarily at the base of a shallow sandy aquifer in contact with an underlying silty-clay confining bed. We used results of the time-series borehole logging collected between 2017 and 2022 in 4 monitoring wells to track oxidant delivery. The EM-induction logs from the monitoring wells showed an increase in EM response primarily along the contact, likely from pooling of the oxidant, during P-ISCO treatment in 2021. Interestingly, concurrent natural gamma-ray (NGR) logging showed a decrease in NGR response at 3 of the 4 wells possibly from the formation of manganese precipitates coating sediments. The coupling of time-series logging and well-chemistry data allowed for an improved assessment of passive ISCO treatment effectiveness.

Florida

Site-specific amplifications in Northwestern Turkiye: A generic approach

In this study, we derive generic site amplification functions applicable to Northwestern Türkiye and follow guidance on site classifications established by the United States National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). We employ the one-dimensional (1-D) equivalent linear ground response analysis method and focus on recordings from a select suite of free-field strong motion (SM) stations. These particular SM stations are associated with a comprehensive geotechnical site conditions dataset comprising 76 shear-wave velocity profiles. Despite their varying resolutions and depths, this diversity allows for a more representative analysis across different site conditions, enhancing the robustness of our findings. For analyses, we utilize a robust set of global ground motion records, selected from both within and outside of Türkiye, to serve as strong and weak input bedrock motions. Site amplification is determined by propagating these bedrock records through 76 site-specific Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı (AFAD) station profiles and calculating the spectral acceleration ratio between the ground surface and the input motion. Our analyses reveal substantial disparities between the amplification functions derived from 1-D site response analyses using strong and weak input motions. These disparities are central to our analysis and inform the subsequent comparison with site amplification functions reported in the literature. We compare the generic site amplification functions derived in this study with those reported in the literature for regions with similar geological and seismic conditions to Northwestern Türkiye. For example, site amplification functions for NEHRP Site Classes C and D have been documented for Greece and the United States utilizing frequency-dependent methods such as the quarter-wavelength approximation. Our findings reveal that the generic site amplification functions derived in this study exhibit differences in peak amplitudes and predominant frequencies compared to those in the literature, reflecting regional variations in geotechnical and seismic properties. This study represents an initial effort to formulate generic site amplification functions for Türkiye, with a particular emphasis on the Northwestern region. A thorough literature review indicated no prior studies have proposed such functions specifically for this area.

Northwestern Turkiye

Uncertainty quantification of geologic energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs using material balance equations embedded in a hierarchical errors-in-variables model

The storage potential for gas in geologic settings, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and solution-mined salt caverns, is becoming salient to future energy infrastructure planning. Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery, and natural gas and hydrogen storage help meet growing energy demands, reduce carbon emissions to meet climate goals, and provide energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties. Therefore, estimates of underground gas storage capacity could be useful for efficiently navigating the energy transitions. Material balance is a fundamental method in reservoir engineering for estimating original gas in place and potential storage capacity at the scale necessary for national assessments of subsurface pore space resources. However, the deterministic method cannot accommodate multiple data sources or quantify uncertainty in predictions. In this study, a method that embeds material balance equations within a hierarchical errors-in-variables model is proposed which allows the estimation of the distributions of reservoir properties needed for assessments. Uncertainties associated with these reservoir properties have traditionally been expert-elicited, whereas the uncertainty estimates from the proposed models are data-driven. Capacity and uncertainty estimates can be used in a probabilistic resource assessment, supplementing information traditionally used by assessors or even replacing this expert elicitation step when data are unavailable. Various regression models are compared in a case study of the Michigan Basin, a large contributor to the United States’ current natural gas storage capacity. In particular, errors-in-variables models help ameliorate regression dilution and can quantify uncertainty in predictions of pressure in addition to storage capacity. Overfitting is addressed by quantifying generalization error and model averaging in simple and stratified cross-validation against reported working gas capacity, representing the varying quality and quantity of available data. Incorporating a statistical framework into existing numerical methods in reservoir engineering can improve the quality of estimation, and in particular, this method brings rigor to uncertainty quantification as part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess domestic energy gas storage resources in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Mathematical Geosciences

Monazite and xenotime U-Pb geochronology and thermometry of the Blue Ridge and Inner Piedmont of North Carolina: Implications for the thermal-metamorphic evolution of the southern Appalachian metamorphic “core”

The southern Appalachian orogen preserves a complex distribution of metamorphism and deformation varying in timing, magnitude, and spatial extent. These complexities give rise to disparate interpretations for southern Appalachian tectonic evolution, which complicates the testing and interpretation of tectonic models in this system. New monazite (Mnz) and xenotime (Xtm) laser ablation split stream (LASS) analyses alongside Mnz-Xtm thermometry in the orogenic core in the eastern Blue Ridge (EBR), western Inner Piedmont (WIP), and Cat Square terranes (CST) of North Carolina yield new constraints that define distinct pro- and retrograde metamorphic events. The EBR preserves two prograde thermal events: the Taconic (∼470-440 Ma, >660°C) and Neoacadian (∼380-340 Ma, 600–700°C), separated by a period of cooling (exhumation?) and followed by garnet breakdown from 339 to 329 Ma. Evidence of pervasive Neoacadian ductile deformation in the EBR is largely limited to the Brevard fault zone (BFZ), indicating that a major rheological gradient existed across the BFZ during the Neoacadian and early Alleghanian. Southeast of the BFZ, in the WIP and CST, monazite data define a protracted Neoacadian evolution from early mineral growth at ∼405 Ma at ∼450–600°C to >700°C at ∼360 Ma, followed by early Alleghanian retrograde metamorphism and deformation (<345 Ma, 350–500°C). These constraints, together with previously reported thermobarometric data, define a P-T-t evolution for the WIP and CST consistent with Neoacadian crustal flow, while the coeval presence of a thermal-rheological boundary along the BFZ further supports a model of Neoacadian crustal “escape” flow within the orogen.

North Carolina

Regional characterization of coal resources in the U.S. Gulf Coast

There is increasing interest in extracting critical minerals (CM), including rare earth elements (REE), from coals in the United States to address the overreliance on imported REE. The U.S. Gulf Coast and the Williston basins are the two major lignite-bearing basins within the country. Recent REE and CM studies of the lignite in these basins have indicated that the coals may be a viable source material for REE and CM extraction. To evaluate in-place coal as a potential source of REE and CM, the coal resources need to be quantified. This study presents the results of a regional analysis of the U.S. Gulf Coast lignite and bituminous coal resources that might be available as potential sources of REE and CM. The resource analysis used kriging methods to develop isopleth maps of cumulative coal thickness throughout the region using data from 31,181 drill holes and other data points. The estimated total coal resource in the Gulf Coast is about 83 billion metric tons in the upper 90 m (~ 300 ft) of the subsurface. Texas accounted for 40 percent (32 billion metric tons) of the total resource, followed by Mississippi (24 %, 20 billion metric tons), Louisiana (14 %, 12 billion metric tons), Tennessee (10 %, 8.5 billion metric tons), and Arkansas (6 %, 5.1 billion metric tons). The remaining states each accounted for less than 5 percent of the total resource. Georgia had the smallest resource estimated at 7 million metric tons. Here we report the first known state-wide lignite resource estimates for Georgia, Kentucky (820 million metric tons), and Missouri (1,800 million metric tons). A comparison of the results of this study with those of previous Gulf Coast and Williston Basin resource studies is difficult because each study used different data sources, assessment methodologies, overburden depths, and qualifying coal thicknesses. Coal-power electric generation has sharply decreased in past decades and mining of these coals for CM and REE could provide additional co-products such as activated carbon and other uses such as fertilizer (soil enhancer).

EarthArXiv

Measurement of in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclides in fine-grained quartz from shale

In situ -produced 10 Be in quartz is widely used to constrain exposure ages and denudation rates, traditionally measured in sand-sized grains. Here we report a new method for isolating fine-grained quartz from shale and demonstrate its reliability for grain sizes down to single microns. Sequential dissolution tests and analyses of grain size separates show that meteoric 10 Be is eliminated and that recoil losses during cosmogenic nuclide production are balanced by implantation from other mineral grains. High-temperature combustion leads to diffusion of meteoric 10 Be into fine-grained quartz and must be used with caution.

Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Researc

ShakeAlert®—Communication, education, outreach and technical engagement strategic vision

Executive Summary In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began directly supporting ShakeAlert ® research and in 2012 the ShakeAlert demonstration system began testing ( Given and others, 2018 ). The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the three West Coast States (Washington, Oregon, and California) served by the ShakeAlert System, which is part of the larger Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). With more than 143 million people exposed to potentially damaging shaking in the United States ( Jaiswal and others, 2015 ), earthquakes are a national hazard. Most of our Nation’s earthquake risk is concentrated in the highly populated areas on the active plate tectonic boundaries on the West Coast of the conterminous United States. ShakeAlert is the first public alert system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification of earthquake detection, potentially offering seconds of warning before strong shaking arrives. A few seconds may not seem like much time, but the information in ShakeAlert Messages can be used to trigger automated actions that can prevent injury or death, reduce immediate damage, and speed recovery from earthquakes. The information product issued by the ShakeAlert system is called a ShakeAlert Message and is one of the information products and tools of the ANSS. The ShakeAlert System includes the USGS component, plus the pathways by which ShakeAlert-powered products and (or) services are delivered to end users. Alerts can be delivered to cell phones or be used to trigger automated systems to protect equipment, facilities, and infrastructure, such as slowing or stopping a train. ShakeAlert-powered automated actions can include fire house doors that can be opened to prevent jamming, heavy equipment (for example, trains, elevators, and cranes) that can be automatically stopped or parked in safe positions, and pipeline valves that can be closed to prevent surges and spills. A few seconds of warning also may be sufficient for people to take protective actions, such as drop, cover, and hold on or modified protective actions for a broad range of populations. Advance training may increase the benefit of a speedy response to an alert. Outreach and education about EEW may raise awareness of the overall earthquake threat and how people can best react when they receive an alert or feel shaking. ShakeAlert communication, education, outreach, and technical engagement (CEO&TE) efforts are highly collaborative and essential for the success of the ShakeAlert System. This strategic vision informs how the vast ShakeAlert CEO&TE Community operates and works together. The CEO&TE Community delineates a strategic framework that is intended to set the path for a long-term, sustainable approach to CEO&TE through three focus areas and five priorities. Focus Areas Technical engagement.— The objective of this focus area is to expand and broaden ShakeAlert technical engagement and implementation. External engagement.— This focus area targets engagement in long-term communication, education, and outreach planning, implementation, and evaluation. Internal engagement.— The purpose of this focus area is to build and sustain a robust infrastructure to optimize collaboration, information sharing, and project planning among the community of stakeholders charged with implementing ShakeAlert CEO&TE. Priorities The enumeration of the five priorities listed below does not suggest priority ranking. Public safety, preparedness, and resilience; Technical implementation and engagement; Consistent messaging and communication; Integration with other Federal and State earthquake hazards products; and Educational resources development and dissemination. This strategic vision is a tangible outcome of collaboration among many stakeholders beginning in July 2016. Since then, the work of the ShakeAlert CEO&TE Community has grown into an international effort. The USGS has developed, tested, and implemented a broad spectrum of communication, education, and outreach tools and resources—all of which recognize that seconds matter when it comes to safety and mitigating harm from earthquake hazards. The CEO&TE social science research effort has provided invaluable insights into the ShakeAlert System’s human interface. USGS-licensed technical partners develop, test, and implement real-world applications using ShakeAlert Messages. The success of ShakeAlert CEO&TE efforts is predicated on robust collaboration across numerous agencies, organizations, and groups. As such, this strategic vision outlines a “partnership model” that delineates roles and responsibilities to ensure alignment with focus areas and priorities. The partnership model includes the CEO&TE lead agency (USGS); its principal partners (State agencies and university partners); its implementation partners (for example, technical partners who build systems to deliver ShakeAlert-powered products and (or) services [focus area one]), earthquake education partners who work to increase public preparedness for seismic events (focus area two); and other organizations that work together to enhance the adoption and effectiveness of the ShakeAlert System. These partners collaborate and convene through a variety of working groups and forums, which are also described in this strategic vision and align with focus area three (internal engagement). The CEO&TE Community collaboratively developed its operating principles and a consensus-based, decision-making strategic framework to guide its collective work. Performance metrics are used to continually measure success. Ultimately, the USGS and ShakeAlert CEO&TE Community are advancing the ShakeAlert System that as of the publication of this strategic vision to “provide earthquake early warning for all” serves more than 50 million people.

Circular

Precariously balanced rocks in northern New York and Vermont, U.S.A.: Ground-motion constraints and implications for fault sources

Precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) and other fragile geologic features have the potential to constrain the maximum intensity of earthquake ground shaking over millennia. Such constraints may be particularly useful in the eastern United States (U.S.), where few earthquake‐source faults are reliably identified, and moderate earthquakes can be felt at great distances due to low seismic attenuation. We describe five PBRs in northern New York and Vermont—a region of elevated seismic hazard associated with historical seismicity. These boulders appear to be among the most fragile PBRs in the region, based on reports from hobbyists. The PBRs are glacial erratics, best evidenced by glacial striations on bedrock pedestals. The pedestals themselves are locally high knobs, often situated on regionally high topography; this setting limits soil development and indicates that any outwash deposits were likely ephemeral. As a result, PBR ages can be reliably established by the retreat of the last continental ice sheet, ∼15–13 ka. To quantify the fragility of the PBRs, we surveyed them with ground‐based light detection and ranging and calculated geometric parameters from the point clouds, field observations, and seismic responses. Preliminary validation of the 2023 time‐independent U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) shows that the existence of PBRs is generally consistent with the median site‐specific hazard curves. Only the Blue Ridge Road site suggests a modest reduction in hazard. To visualize the ensemble of data, we mapped the minimum permissible distance to potential source faults around each PBR site as a function of source magnitude by using the ground‐motion models from the 2023 NSHM. Viewed in this manner, our data are consistent with potential M ∼6.5 earthquake‐source faults in many parts of the Lake Champlain Valley and northern Adirondack Mountains. Our work illustrates a potential pathway for better constraining earthquake‐source faults in regions of cryptic faults.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document the scale of events and assess population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities, such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability, which will increase the ability to estimate mortality robustly, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring, which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, determination of mortality minimum spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this decision tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

Ornithological Applications

U.S. Geological Survey research and assessments supporting carbon dioxide removal

Both carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are methods to limit future global temperature rise and ocean acidification. CCS sequesters (stores) carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from industrial sources thereby preventing the CO2 from reaching the atmosphere. The captured CO2 is injected into underground geologic reservoirs or is converted into stable industrial products. CDR enhances natural processes or uses technical approaches to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is sequestered in natural sinks such as vegetation and soil, or injected into underground reservoirs or converted into durable products. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts research and resource assessments that support biologic and geologic CDR approaches. This report will review some of the ongoing USGS CDR research and assessment efforts.

Conference Paper

Geohydrology of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal area, with special reference to the Ocala vicinity

The Cross-Florida Barge Canal route commences at Palatka on the St. Johns River, about 75 miles upstream from the Atlantic Ocean, and extends 110 miles southwestward across Peninsular Florida into deep water in the Gulf of Mexico near Yankeetown. The canal will be equipped with five locks, each 600 feet long and 84 feet wide, and the channel will be a minimum of 12 feet deep and 150 feet wide. From near Ocala northeastward, the canal channel will replace much of the natural channel of the Oklawaha River, and will be excavated into beds of the so-called shallow sand aquifer of Miocene age and younger, which overlies limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Westward from Ocala, most of the canal will be excavated below the potentiometric surface into limestone and dolomite of the Floridan aquifer. Water levels of Rodman, Eureka, and Inglis Pools will be controlled by dams and spillways with the limited exchange of water between the pools and the aquifers. The water levels in the Summit Pools will fluctuate with the natural changes in the ground-water level of the Floridan aquifer, although the stage of the pool will be controlled partly by the stage held in the Eureka Pool. A dynamic inflow-outflow relationship will exist between the Summit Pool and the Floridan aquifer. The Floridan aquifer in the canal area is 1,000 to 1,200 feet thick and consists of limestone and dolomite of middle Eocene Miocene age, including from older to younger, the Lake City, Avon Park, and Ocala limestones plus permeable sandy, dolomitic limestone in the lower part of the Hawthorn Formation. It is possible that most of the flow to the two major springs in the area occurs in the upper 100 feet or so of the aquifer in the Ocala Limestone. The aquifer is underlain by the Oldsmar limestone of early Eocene age and is overlain by sand, clayey sand, clay and shell beds of Miocene through Holocene age, in thickness from a few feet to 300 feet. The permeable beds overlying the Floridan aquifer constitute the shallow aquifer, while the poorly permeable ones act as confining beds where the Floridan aquifer is under artesian conditions. A north-south line drawn separating the head of Silver Springs on the west from the Oklawaha River on the east marks the approximate western limit of a continuous blanket of materials of Miocene-Pliocene(?) age covering the rocks of the Floridan aquifer. East of the line, much of the aquifer is under artesian conditions, particularly in the Oklawaha River valley, although in some areas east of the valley, direct recharge through thick permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) sands occurs. West of the line, only scattered remnants of a once continuous Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover remain. Lack of the cover is a result of erosion on the crest and flank of the Ocala Uplift, a broad northwest-southeast trending anticlinal upwarp, the axis of which is crossed by the canal route in the Dunnellon area. Over most of this area the Floridan aquifer is unconfined and receives direct recharge through a cover of a few tens of feet of sand and clayey sand of Quaternary age. Tensional stresses during the structural evolution of the Ocala Uplift produced an intersecting system of fractures and normal faults in rocks of the Floridan aquifer. The fractures and faults are important controls for orientation of solution channels and, therefore, for development of ground-water circulation patterns. When the system surface streams, which once drained the Barge Canal area, eroded the poorly permeable Miocene-Pliocene(?) cover from the flanks of the Ocala Uplift, surface runoff was reduced and precipitation began to directly infiltrate the underlying limestones. Now only principal streams remain, such as the Oklawaha and Withlacoochee Rivers and a few short tributaries, while one of the most highly developed subsurface drainage systems in the world has evolved in cavernous limestone of the Floridan aquifer. Two of the larger freshwater springs in the world now discharge from the Floridan aquifer in the canal area. Silver Springs near Ocala discharges an average 531 mgd (million gallons per day) down the 4-mile long Silver River, which flows on poorly permeable beds to the Oklawaha River. Rainbow Springs near Dunnellon discharges on average 468 mgd from numerous orifices in the bed of the 5-mile-long Rainbow River, which flows into the Withlacoochee River. The heads of the springs have migrated to their present positions partly because of a tendency of ground-water levels to decline as permeability in the aquifer is increased due to removal of limestone by solution, and because of mechanical erosion of the limestone in the vicinity of the spring heads. Also, points of principal spring discharges have shifted in the past due to changes in ground-water levels in response to changes in sea level. The subsurface drainage system is continuing to evolve today, as evidenced in part by frequent occurrence of new sinkholes and by the presence of significant amounts of calcium bicarbonate in the spring waters. Rodman Pool, at the east end of the canal, is separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable materials. The pool's operating water level will be only a few feet above the potentiometric surface at the downstream end, and at or slightly below the potentiometric surface at the upstream end. Little exchange of water between the Rodman Pool and the Floridan aquifer is expected. Eureka Pool, just upstream from Rodman Pool, will also be separated from the Floridan aquifer by poorly permeable beds. However, the stage of the pool will be about 15 feet higher than the natural potentiometric surface at the pool's downstream end, and some seepage into the Floridan aquifer is anticipated through faults and leaky parts of the poorly permeable beds, with a consequent rise in ground-water levels in areas adjacent to the lower end of the pool. Possibilities for particulate contamination of the aquifer will tend to be minimized because of the filtering capacity of the materials through which water must pass to reach the aquifer, although the natural filter will not preclude movement into the aquifer of contaminants which might become dissolved in the pool waters. No significant interchange of water between the pool and the aquifer is expected at the upstream end of the Eureka Pool. Present construction plans indicate an operating stage for Eureka Pool which will range between 38 and 40 feet above mean sea level, although it is possible to dredge the pool deep enough to permit a range in stage of 36 to 40 feet. A backwater effect extending up Silver River from the Eureka Pool is expected to regulate the stage at the head of Silver Springs between 39 and 44 feet above mean sea level if the pool ranges between 36 and 40 feet. If Eureka Pool ranges only between 38 and 40 feet, the range of stage at the head of the springs should be about 41 to 44 feet above mean sea level. From Inglis Lock west, the canal will have direct connection with the Gulf, and canal stage will fluctuate with the Gulf tide. Since the canal stage will be slightly lower than the adjacent ground-water levels along much of the reach, there will be some ground-water inflow to the canal. No significant changes in the existing ground-water regime are expected in the vicinity of Inglis Pool, the first step up in the canal east of the Gulf. Existing ground-water and surface-water levels in the area will not change appreciable, and the natural stage and flow of Rainbow Springs, which will flow by way of Rainbow River into Inglis Pool, should not be affected by canal operations. A possible adverse effect of the canal on the Inglis Pool area could result if sea water is locked up from the Gulf through Inglis Lock. However, the high step of 25 feet at the lock, flushing action of continuous flow from Inglis Pool to the lower reaches of the Withlacoochee River, and use of possible preventive locking procedures should minimize the problem. The potential for adverse effects on the ground-water regime is greatest in the area of the Summit Pool. Through most of the length of the pool, the canal channel will be excavated into limestone of the Floridan aquifer to depths of 12 to 27 feet below the potentiometric surface. Changes that will take place in the ground-water flow system in the Silver Springs drainage area, once the canal is completed, were estimated by flow-net analysis. Variation in aquifer transmissivity was determined by calculating transmissivity in 25 different flow cells surrounding Silver Springs. Transmissivity in the 25 cells averages about 15,600,000 gpd/ft [2,090,000 ft2/day (feet squared)], but transmissivity in the six cells through which the Summit Pool passes ranges from 9,000,000 to 44,000,000 gpd/ft (1,210,000 to 5,900,000 ft2/day). Transmissivity was used to compute static stage of the Summit Pool under given ground-water level conditions. Had the canal existed in May 1968 and had the stage of Eureka Pool been held at 36 feet at the time, the static stage in Summit Pool would have been about 42.1 feet above mean sea level. Thus, a conceptual model of the changes in the potentiometric surface wrought by the finished canal was drawn, and zones of ground-water inflow and outflow were delineated. Most outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer should be limited to one 4-mile-long zone along the north side of the pool, about 5 miles south of Silver Springs. It is estimated that a water volume equivalent to about 8 percent of the daily flow of Silver Springs will enter the Summit Pool each day from the southern one-third of the Silver Springs drainage area. A like amount will reenter the aquifer at the main zone of outflow and move toward Silver Springs at an estimated average velocity of about 200 feet per day, if something close to the natural static stage of the pool is maintained by return pumpage of the lockage losses. At a velocity of 200 feet per day, water from the Summit Pool would discharge at Silver Springs about 140 days later. However, any estimate of velocity in the highly cavernous limestone aquifer in the area should be used with caution, because difficult to measure changes in porosity and thickness of major zones of flow may cause large variations in velocity. If all lockage losses are returned to the Summit Pool by pumping from Eureka Pool, no net loss from the Silver Springs drainage area, except for some evaporation from the water surface in the canal and possible leakage around locks, will result from canal operations. The zone of outflow from the Summit Pool to the aquifer will be in a natural potentiometric trough, and the zone of inflow will be in a potentiometric ridge area. The equilibrium water level in the pool will tend to be about 1 foot higher than the altitude of the lowest level in the pre-canal potentiometric trough, and about 2 feet lower than the highest level on the pre-canal potentiometric ridge. West of the Silver Springs drainage area just east of Dunnellon Lock, in the area of a local potentiometric high, the water level in the Summit Pool is expected to be about 15 feet below the natural potentiometric surface. In most areas 2 to 3 miles away from the Summit Pool, effects of the canal on the natural potentiometric surface should be slight. The stage of the Summit Pool, judging from the 36-year record for ground-water level changes and the anticipated indirect effect of the controlled stage in Eureka Pool, should have a maximum of about 10.5 feet with a maximum water level of about 51.5 feet above mean sea level and a minimum of about 41.0 feet above mean sea level. Of particular importance in the Summit Pool is an implementation of well planned construction and operational procedures designed to minimize risks of ground-water contamination.

Florida

Seismic intensities, ground motions and basin amplification from the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California intraslab earthquake

On December 20, 2022, a Mw 6.4 earthquake occurred at a depth of 18 km within the subducting Gorda plate in the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), one of the most seismically active regions of the contiguous United States, causing widespread damage to local communities. Here we document the seismic intensities, ground motions, and basin amplification effects recorded by this earthquake across Humboldt County as part of an ongoing scientific effort to understand subduction zone earthquake hazards. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values from our post-earthquake field survey report shaking intensities as high as VIII (Severe). Strong ground motion data from 54 seismic stations were processed to calculate amplitude and frequency content parameters across Northern California. The maximum calculated geometric mean PGA and PGV are 1053 cm/s 2 and 52 cm/s (respectively), both recorded within the 3 km deep Eel River sedimentary basin. Comparisons with four published Ground Motion Prediction Equations indicate that PGA and PGV measurements align with expected attenuation-distance patterns for intraslab earthquakes of this nature. Within the Eel River Basin, ground motions for frequencies above 1 Hz are amplified, with respect to reference stations, by factors greater than 2. Our findings suggest that peak ground motions were mainly caused by sedimentary basin site-effects within the Eel River basin, although rupture directivity may have also increased ground motion amplitudes locally. While the Ferndale area is primarily impacted by shallow intraslab earthquakes, our results also raise questions about site-response and basin amplification hazards from a potential megathrust earthquake. The high seismicity rates of the southernmost Cascades call for stronger regional preparedness and improved strategies to mitigate the effects of such a large-scale disaster.

California

Pre-eruptive characteristics of “suspect” silicic magmas in Carlin-type Au-forming systems

World-class Carlin-type Au deposits hosted in sedimentary rock were formed when profuse Eocene silicic magmatism swept across northern Nevada in response to arc migration. Carlin-type Au deposits formed along with porphyry/skarn Cu-Mo-W-Au deposits, epithermal Ag-Au deposits, and distal disseminated Ag-Au deposits. But unlike these other Au-bearing deposits that have clear associations with igneous intrusions, Carlin-type ore deposits appear to have formed distant from concealed plutons, and their origin remains controversial. Despite decades of abundant geophysical, geochronological, and geochemical studies suggesting the involvement of magmas, concrete evidence for magmatic involvement is still lacking. Consequently, the involvement of contemporaneous igneous systems remains inferred based on age, proximity, and variable isotopic, geochemical, and geophysical clues. A recent synthesis of deposit models postulates that Carlin-type Au deposits are intrusion-related, but that the causative magmas reside deeper (∼6–12 km) than in typical porphyry and peripheral systems (∼3–5 km), meaning that Carlin-type deposits are perhaps more distal expressions of igneous intrusions. We investigate a collection of “suspect” magmatic systems over a ∼7 m.y. timespan (∼41–34 Ma) that are contemporaneous with and near known Carlin-type ore deposits. We report results of a multifaceted array of in situ geochemical analyses (FTIR, EMP, SHRIMP-RG, LA-ICP-MS) of quartz-hosted melt inclusions, biotite, and quartz to better characterize the pre-eruptive characteristics of these magmas. We also report results of thermobarometry and thermodynamic phase equilibria modeling to help place constraints on magmatic reservoir depths and processes. Rather than a single “flavor” of silicic magma, we observe a surprisingly broad compositional spectrum of rhyolites, with one end of the spectrum exhibiting more arc-like (I-type) characteristics and the other end displaying more post-subduction, thick-crust extensional (A-type) characteristics. This broad compositional spectrum suggests a more complex picture of silicic crustal magmatism operating over a narrow span of time during slab rollback. Despite this spectrum, magmatic systems in this study are consistently ferroan and generally peraluminous, which we interpret as an expression of the relatively elevated geotherm at the time and incorporation of variable amounts of highly peraluminous metasedimentary crustal components. The silicic magma spectrum encompasses a range of mineralization associations, including subduction-related Cu-Mo-W-Au-Ag and post-subduction, thick-crust extensional rare-metal Mo-Sn-W-F-Be-Ag-Au, consistent with the prolific and diverse array of ore deposits that formed during this time. Carlin-type Au deposition appears to be associated with nearly the entire magmatic spectrum. This apparent indifference to silicic magma “flavor” would seem to imply that if magmas are involved in Carlin-type Au deposit genesis, they perhaps do not need to be compositionally specialized and/or possibly are only relevant as heat sources driving circulation to remobilize and redistribute metals.

Nevada

Local, regional, and distal recordings of seismic unrest at Tau Island volcano, American Samoa

A seismic swarm near Taʻū Island, a volcanic island in eastern American Samoa, occurred from July to October 2022. The earliest unrest was noted as felt shaking reports in late July, and instrumentation varied in the beginning of the sequence as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory responded by installing temporary and then permanent seismometers to monitor the activity. This network variability made it difficult to characterize the earliest seismicity and contextualize the entire sequence to discriminate between an underlying tectonic or volcanic source. Here, we present results analyzing hydroacoustic detections from an International Monitoring System hydrophone array near Wake Island, 4500 km northwest of Taʻū Island volcano. Using least-squares beamforming analysis, we create a catalog of T-wave detections from the direction of Taʻū Island to track the earthquakes, some of which were located by the USGS National EarthquakeInformation Center. Both the rate and hydroacoustic pressures, which we interpret as a proxy for earthquake size, gradually increased from late July to August, peaking on August 19 (rate) and August 24 (size), before decreasing to background in late September. Minutes-long bursts of tremor were also contemporaneously recorded as local network data became avail-able on August 20. Tremor activity continued throughout the rest of August, peaking on August 25, before ending in earlySeptember. These tremor bursts were band-limited to ~ 1–5 Hz and recorded as S waves at a regional station on the island of Upolu in Samoa, 250 km to the west of Taʻū Island. Our results do not constrain the tremor locations, but comparisons of earthquake and tremor reduced displacements recorded locally and regionally suggest a deeper tremor source. We interpret the increase in earthquake size and rate, together with the occurrence, characteristics, and relative depth of the tremor to be the result of magmatic activity beneath Taʻū Island volcano.

American Samoa, Taʻū Island

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon

Introduction to the special section on improving measurements of earthquake source parameters

Earthquake source parameters such as magnitude, seismic moment, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated energy are fundamental to understanding earthquake physics, and are also key ingredients in earthquake ground‐motion modeling, rupture simulation, and statistical seismology. However, the uncertainties in these parameters estimated from the radiated seismic wavefield are large due to variability in approaches, including site and attenuation characterizations, and so estimates for an individual earthquake made by different studies can vary greatly. Estimating spectral source parameters remains a popular topic, due to a combination of their intrinsic importance and their apparent ease of measurement, but also a controversial one, due to many sources of variability and large uncertainty. The available methods coupled with necessary parameter choices and assumptions in the analysis make it challenging for researchers to apply methods or understand the reliability in results or reported source parameters. This Special Section on Improving Measurements of Earthquake Source Parameters showcasing comparisons between methods and studies seeks to alleviate some of these difficulties to help the community identify the important components and trade‐offs of decomposing recorded seismograms into their source, path, and site components.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Uncertainty in ground-motion-to-intensity conversions significantly affects earthquake early warning alert regions

We examine how the choice of ground‐motion‐to‐intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems affects resulting alert regions. We find that existing GMICEs can underestimate observed shaking at short rupture distances or overestimate the extent of low‐intensity shaking. Updated GMICEs that remove these biases would improve the accuracy of alert regions for the ShakeAlert EEW system for the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert uses ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which calculate spatial distributions of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) from earthquake source estimates, combined with GMICEs to translate GMPE output into modified Mercalli intensity (MMI). We find significant epistemic uncertainty in alert distances; near‐source MMI estimates from different GMICEs can differ by over 1 MMI unit, and MMI extents used for public EEW alerts can differ by hundreds of kilometers for larger magnitude earthquakes ( M ∼6.5+). We use a catalog of “Did You Feel It?” shaking reports to evaluate how well GMICEs predict observed shaking. Our preferred GMICE is the one that computes MMI using PGV for high intensities and transitions to using PGA for nondamaging intensities. These results motivate updating GMICE relationships more generally, including in ShakeMap applications.

The Seismic Record

Perspectives on transportable array Alaska background noise levels

Background seismic noise fundamentally sets a lower bound on our ability to record signals arising from earthquakes. The background noise spectrum at a station is a combination of cultural noise, ocean-generated microseism noise, intrinsic instrument self-noise, and the sensitivity of the instrument to nonseismic noise sources. The USArray-Transportable Array Alaska deployed 195 stations across Alaska and parts of Canada (Yukon, British Columbia, and Northwest Territories). These stations were all installed using similar techniques and made use of instruments with similar self-noise levels. As such, this network provides an opportunity to look at how geographic location influences seismic background. Using these broadband stations, we report background noise levels from 0.2 to 75 s period in six discrete bands. By constructing “noise maps,” we depict both spatial and temporal changes in the background noise field. Using these maps, combined with targeted analysis, we infer sources and contributing factors to noise levels in these different period bands. These include cultural noise, the formation of sea ice, seasonal changes in permafrost and wave activity in the Gulf of Alaska, and magnetic field variability. We use this study as an opportunity to review several previous studies examining seismic noise in Arctic regions.

Book chapter