USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Climate of the Past”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗
USGS2011

Lake carbonate-δ 18 records from the Yukon Territory, Canada: Little Ice Age moisture variability and patterns

A 1000-yr history of climate change in the central Yukon Territory, Canada, is inferred from sediment composition and isotope geochemistry from small, groundwater fed, Seven Mile Lake. Recent observations of lake-water δ 18 O, lake level, river discharge, and climate variations, suggest that changes in regional effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) are reflected by the lake’s hydrologic balance. The observations indicate that the lake is currently 18 O-enriched by summer evaporation and that during years of increased precipitation, when groundwater inflow rates to the lake increase, lake-water δ 18 O values decrease. Past lake-water δ 18 O values are inferred from oxygen isotope ratios of fine-grained sedimentary endogenic carbonate. Variations in carbonate δ 18 O, supplemented by those in carbonate and organic δ 13 C, C/N ratios, and organic carbon, carbonate and biogenic silica accumulation rates, document changes in effective moisture at decadal time scales during the early Little Ice Age period to present. Results indicate that between ∼AD 1000 and 1600, effective moisture was higher than today. A shift to more arid climate conditions occurred after ∼AD 1650. The 19th and 20th centuries have been the driest of the past millennium. Temporal variations correspond with inferred shifts in summer evaporation from Marcella Lake δ 18 O, a similarly small, stratified, alkaline lake located ∼250 km to the southwest, suggesting that the combined reconstructions accurately document the regional paleoclimate of the east-central interior. Comparison with regional glacial activity suggests differing regional moisture patterns during early and late Little Ice Age advances.

Yukon Territory↗
USGS2013

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2004

Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed

Global warming and attendant sea-level rise may soon impact geomorphic processes in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River and San Francisco Bay Delta systems. During the past two centuries, dramatic anthropogenic changes in sediment supply and pervasive structural controls on rivers and floodplains have altered geomorphic responses to floods throughout a zone that extends upstream from tidally influenced areas to dams that regulate flow. Current geomorphic responses to floods differ from natural responses due to historical actions that concentrated the pre-disturbance multiple-channel and flood-basin system into single channels isolated by levees from increasingly developed floodplains and flood bypass channels, altered flow and sediment regimes, and caused subsidence of leveed Delta Islands. A review of historic and current geomorphic responses to floods illustrates the dominance of structural controls on geomorphic changes in the lowland part of the Sacramento-San Joaquin system. Current climate-change projections for CA suggest that the total volume of snowmelt runoff that may be shifted from spring and added to winter flows is roughly 5 maf/yr, similar to the volume currently available for flood storage in Sierra Nevadan reservoirs. Changes in timing of reservoir releases to accommodate these changes could add to either the magnitude or duration of winter flood peaks, each causing different geomorphic responses. Increased wintertime flows that accompany already large floods could increase overbank flood extent, erosion, and sedimentation, or alternatively increase the depth and strength of confined flows and increase the risk of levee failures. Runoff released from reservoirs as a relatively constant addition to winter baseflow would increase the duration of bankfull or possibly "levee-full" flows. This scenario could lead to bank and levee failure through increased saturation and seepage erosion. Projected sea level rise of 1-2 m would compound vulnerability of subsided Delta Islands to levee failure during floods and increase upstream backwater flooding. Thus, geomorphic responses to future climate variation and change will be closely tied to infrastructure and reservoir management, with survivability of infrastructure and decisions about timing, magnitude, and duration of flow releases from upstream reservoirs likely to determine the nature of those geomorphic responses.

Watershed Management Council Networker↗
USGS2022

Socioeconomic resilience to climatic extremes in a freshwater fishery

Heterogeneity is a central feature of ecosystem resilience, but how this translates to socioeconomic resilience depends on people’s ability to track shifting resources in space and time. Here, we quantify how climatic extremes have influenced how people (fishers) track economically valuable ecosystem services (fishing opportunities) across a range of spatial scales in rivers of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, over the past three decades. Fishers opportunistically shifted from drought-sensitive to drought-resistant rivers during periods of low streamflows and warm temperatures. This adaptive behavior stabilized fishing pressure and expenditures by a factor of 2.6 at the scale of the regional fishery (i.e., portfolio effect). However, future warming is predicted to homogenize habitat options that enable adaptive behavior by fishers, putting ~30% of current spending at risk across the region. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of fishing opportunities that enable people to exploit shifting resources provides an important resilience mechanism for mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on fisheries.

Montana↗
USGS2025

Inferring snowpack contributions and the mean elevation of source water to streamflow in the Willamette River, Oregon using water stable isotopes

Snowpacks are an important water source for mountainous rivers, worldwide. The timing and volume of streamflow in systems reliant on snowmelt can be affected by changes in snow accumulation and melt time. In the Cascade Range (western USA), seasonal snowpacks are predicted to decrease by over 50% within the next century. During the last decade, Cascade Range snowpacks have varied between 17% and 150% of the median 1981–2023 peak snowpack values. To understand how snowpack variation could affect Willamette River streamflow, we monitored water stable isotopes over 13 years from two sites on the mainstem and 60 streams draining small catchments across the Willamette River Basin. Small catchment water stable isotope values integrated and dampened variation in precipitation isotopes and varied with elevation, providing a marker for determining the mean elevation from which streamflow in the Willamette River was derived. During winter, while snow accumulates in the mountains, most streamflow in the Willamette River originates from rainfall at lower elevations. During summer low-flow conditions, most streamflow in the river was derived from winter snow that accumulated at elevations above 1200 m, which represents < 12% of the Willamette River Basin area. Peak snow water equivalent from the previous winter was positively correlated with the proportion of Willamette River streamflow derived from > 1200 m during the summer low-flow period, but both high elevation (> 1200 m) precipitation and temperature trends explained nearly as much variance as snow water equivalent. However, after accounting for climate trends, the estimated amount of high-elevation streamflow in the Willamette River during summer low-flow has decreased over the past 13 years. Improved understanding of the origin of, and trends in, summer streamflow in the Willamette River will aid in reconciling human demands with biological instream requirements during periods of low snowpack.

Oregon↗
USGS2019

Influence of surrounding land-use on mussel growth and glycogen levels in the St. Croix and Minnesota River basins

Freshwater mussels face threats from climate change and changing land use that are dramatically altering their habitat. The health of mussel populations and the state of current and past environmental conditions can be monitored by measuring mussel growth and glycogen levels. In this study we measured growth and glycogen levels in mussels from two small river basins impacted by different land uses. The Snake River in the St. Croix Basin had low levels of suspended sediments and was surrounded mostly by forest and some developed land. The Chippewa, Cottonwood, and Le Sueur rivers in the Minnesota River Basin had significantly higher annual suspended sediment loads and highly agricultural basins. Mussel growth was highest in the Le Sueur and Cottonwood rivers followed by the Chippewa and the Snake rivers. Mussels in the Minnesota Basin rivers all had higher foot glycogen concentrations than the Snake River. These patterns were similar for two mussel species, suggesting that environmental conditions are likely determining levels of growth. Although agriculture had a negative effect on mussel population abundance and diversity, it had a positive effect on growth and glycogen levels.

Minnesota↗
USGS2008

On the in situ aqueous alteration of soils on Mars

Early (>3 Gy) wetter climate conditions on Mars have been proposed, and it is thus likely that pedogenic processes have occurred there at some point in the past. Soil and rock chemistry of the Martian landing sites were evaluated to test the hypothesis that in situ aqueous alteration and downward movement of solutes have been among the processes that have transformed these portions of the Mars regolith. A geochemical mass balance shows that Martian soils at three landing sites have lost significant quantities of major rock-forming elements and have gained elements that are likely present as soluble ions. The loss of elements is interpreted to have occurred during an earlier stage(s) of weathering that may have been accompanied by the downward transport of weathering products, and the salts are interpreted to be emplaced later in a drier Mars history. Chemical differences exist among the sites, indicating regional differences in soil composition. Shallow soil profile excavations at Gusev crater are consistent with late stage downward migration of salts, implying the presence of small amounts of liquid water even in relatively recent Martian history. While the mechanisms for chemical weathering and salt additions on Mars remain unclear, the soil chemistry appears to record a decline in leaching efficiency. A deep sedimentary exposure at Endurance crater contains complex depth profiles of SO4, Cl, and Br, trends generally consistent with downward aqueous transport accompanied by drying. While no model for the origin of Martian soils can be fully constrained with the currently available data, a pedogenic origin is consistent with observed Martian geology and geochemistry, and provides a testable hypothesis that can be evaluated with present and future data from the Mars surface. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2017

Stable C, O and clumped isotope systematics and 14C geochronology of carbonates from the Quaternary Chewaucan closed-basin lake system, Great Basin, USA: Implications for paleoenvironmental reconstructions using carbonates

Isotopic compositions of lacustrine carbonates are commonly used for dating and paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Here we use carbonate δ13C and δ18O, clumped (Δ47), and 14C compositions to better understand the carbonate isotope system in closed-basin lakes and trace the paleohydrologic and temperature evolution in the Chewaucan closed-basin lake system, northern Great Basin, USA, over the Last Glacial/Holocene transition. We focus on shorezone tufas to establish that they form in isotopic equilibrium with lake water and DIC, they can be dated reliably using 14C, and their clumped isotope composition can be used to reconstruct past lake temperature. Calculations of the DIC budget and reservoir age for the lake indicate residence time is short, and dominated by exchange with atmospheric CO2 at all past lake levels. Modern lake DIC and shorezone tufas yield δ13C and 14C values consistent with isotopic equilibrium with recent fossil fuel and bomb-influenced atmospheric CO2, supporting these calculations. δ13C values of fossil tufas are also consistent with isotopic equilibrium with pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 at all shoreline elevations. This indicates that the 14C reservoir effect for this material is negligible. Clumped isotope (Δ47) results indicate shorezone tufas record mean annual lake temperature. Modern (average 13 ± 2 °C) and 18 ka BP-age tufas (average 6 ± 2 °C) have significantly different temperatures consistent with mean annual temperature lowering of 7 ± 3 °C (1 SE) under full glacial conditions. For shorezone tufas and other lake carbonates, including spring mounds, mollusk shells, and ostracod tests, overall δ13C and δ18O values co-vary according to the relative contribution of spring and lacustrine end member DIC and water compositions in the drainage system, but specific isotope values depend strongly upon sample context and are not well correlated with past lake depth. This contrasts with the interpretation that carbonate isotopes in closed-basin lake systems reflect changes in DIC and water budgets connected to higher or lower lake volumes. Instead, a small overlapping range of isotope compositions characterize multiple lake levels, so that none can be identified uniquely by isotope composition alone. Relative to other lake carbonates, δ13C and δ18O values for ostracods in Ana River Canyon deposits are very strongly influenced by Ana River water, suggesting low lake level and volume characterized Summer Lake for most of the past 100,000 years. Coupled with sedimentologic observations, the Ana River deposits thus suggest dry conditions like today are close to the mean climate state in the northern Great Basin. By contrast, basin-integrating highstands such as that dating to ∼14 ka BP, during the last glacial termination, are hydrologically unique and short-lived. Overall, our results indicate carbonate isotope records must account for the specific geochemical and hydrologic characteristics of lake system in order to provide robust paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Great Basin↗
USGS2019

Late Quaternary paleohydrology of desert wetlands and pluvial lakes in the Soda Lake basin, central Mojave Desert, California (USA)

Sediment cores taken near extant springs along the western margin of Soda Lake playa, as well as from the playa center, reveal dramatic hydrologic changes that occurred in the central Mojave Desert during the late Quaternary. Results of stratigraphic, chronologic, physical, chemical, and microfossil analyses of seven cores, ranging in length from 5 to 23 m, help refine the timing and character of the final stages of pluvial Lake Mojave during the late Pleistocene and define distinct periods of wetland development in the early and late Holocene. Evidence shows that an incipient lake occupied the central Soda Lake basin by at least 25.0 ka (ka = thousands of calibrated 14 C years before present), and a fully developed Lake Mojave was present between 20.5 and 12.8 ka, before receding and ultimately yielding to playa conditions by 11.0 ka. Organic-rich “black mats” appear in several cores along the playa margin between 10.7 and 9.0 ka, suggesting that spring-fed wetlands persisted in this area long after the lake had regressed. The basin remained relatively dry throughout most of the Holocene until wetland ecosystems expanded along the margins between 0.73 and 0.18 ka, coincident with part of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. Overall, our results demonstrate that buried sediments surrounding extant and extinct springs can be used to reconstruct past hydrologic conditions in desert environments on a variety of spatial and temporal scales, and provide important baseline information for effective management of limited desert resources.

California↗
USGS2024

The state of the bats in North America

The world's rich diversity of bats supports healthy ecosystems and important ecosystem services. Maintaining healthy biological systems requires prompt identification of threats to biodiversity and immediate action to protect species, which for wide-ranging bat species that span geopolitical boundaries warrants international coordination. Anthropogenic forces drive the threats to bats throughout North America and the world. We conducted an international expert elicitation to assess the status of 153 bat species in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We used expert assessment to determine the conservation status, highest impact threats, and recent population trends for these species. We found that 53% of North American bat species have moderate to very high risk of extinction in the next 15 years. The highest impact threats varied with species and country, and four IUCN threat categories had the greatest overall impacts: Climate Change, Problematic Species (including disease), Agriculture, and Energy Production. Experts estimated that 90% of species assessed had decreasing population trends over the past 15 years, demonstrating the need for conservation action. Although the state of North American bats is concerning, we identify threats that can be addressed through internationally collaborative, proactive, and protective actions to support the recovery and resilience of North American bat species.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2000

The Amazon reveals its secrets--partly

The role of the tropics in global climate change during glacial cycles is hotly debated in paleoclimate cycles today. Records from South America have not provided a clear picture of tropical climate change. In his Perspective, Betancourt highlights the study by Maslin and Burns, who have deduced the outflow of the Amazon over the past 14,000 years. This may serve as a proxy that integrates hydrology over the entire South American tropics, although the record must be interpreted cautiously because factors other than rainfall may contribute to the variability in outflow.

Amazon River↗
USGS2003

Ground-water conditions and studies in Georgia, 2001

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collects ground-water data and conducts studies to monitor hydrologic conditions, to better define ground-water resources, and address problems related to water supply and water quality. Data collected as part of ground-water studies include geologic, geophysical, hydraulic property, water level, and water quality. A ground-water-level network has been established throughout most of the State of Georgia, and ground-water-quality networks have been established in the cities of Albany, Savannah, and Brunswick and in Camden County, Georgia. Ground-water levels are monitored continuously in a network of wells completed in major aquifers of the State. This network includes 17 wells in the surficial aquifer, 12 wells in the upper and lower Brunswick aquifers, 73 wells in the Upper Floridan aquifer, 10 wells in the Lower Floridan aquifer and underlying units, 12 wells in the Claiborne aquifer, 1 well in the Gordon aquifer, 11 wells in the Clayton aquifer, 11 wells in the Cretaceous aquifer system, 2 wells in Paleozoic-rock aquifers, and 7 wells in crystalline-rock aquifers. In this report, data from these 156 wells were evaluated to determine whether mean-annual ground-water levels were within, below, or above the normal range during 2001, based on summary statistics for the period of record. Information from these summaries indicates that water levels during 2001 were below normal in almost all aquifers monitored, largely reflecting climatic effects from drought and pumping. In addition, water-level hydrographs for selected wells indicate that water levels have declined during the past 5 years (since 1997) in almost all aquifers monitored, with water levels in some wells falling below historical lows. In addition to continuous water-level data, periodic measurements taken in 52 wells in the Camden County-Charlton County area, and 65 wells in the city of Albany-Dougherty County area were used to construct potentiometric-surface maps for the Upper Floridan aquifer. Ground-water quality in the Upper Floridan aquifer is monitored in the cities of Albany, Savannah, and Brunswick and in Camden County; and monitored in the Lower Floridan aquifer in the Savannah and Brunswick areas. In the Albany area since 1998, nitrate concentrations in the Upper Floridan aquifer have increased in 4 of the 11 wells monitored, and in 1 well, concentrations were above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L) drinking-water standard. In the Savannah area, chloride concentration in water from four wells in the Upper Floridan aquifer showed no appreciable change during 2001, remaining within the USEPA 250 mg/L drinking-water standard; in seven wells completed in the Lower Floridan aquifer and in underlying zones, the chloride concentration remained above the drinking-water standard, with one well showing an increase over previous years. In the Brunswick area, water samples from 66 wells completed in the Upper or Lower Floridan aquifers were collected during June 2001 and analyzed for chloride. A map showing chloride concentrations in the Upper Floridan aquifer during June 2001 indicates that concentrations remained above USEPA drinking-water standards across a 2-square-mile area. In the north Brunswick area, chloride concentrations in the Upper Floridan aquifer continued to increase, whereas in the south Brunswick area, concentrations continued to decrease. In the Camden County area, chloride concentrations in six wells completed in the Upper Floridan aquifer remained within drinking-water standards. With the exception of one well, concentrations remained the same and were below 40 mg/L. In one well, concentrations showed a sharp decline during 2001, but remained above 130 mg/L. Ongoing studies during 2001 include evaluation of agricultural chemicals in shallow ground water in southwestern Georgia; evaluation of saltwater intrusion and water-level and water-quality m

Georgia↗
USGS2007

At-sea distribution and abundance of seabirds off southern California: A 20-year comparison

We conducted aerial at-sea and coastal surveys to examine the distribution and abundance of seabirds off southern California, from Cambria, California, to the Mexican border. From May 1999-January 2002, we flew 102 d, covered >54,640 km of transect lines, and conducted nine complete surveys of southern California in January, May, and September. We identified 54 species comprising 12 families and counted >135,000 individuals. Seabird densities were greater along island and mainland coastlines than at sea and were usually greatest in January surveys. Densities were greatest at sea near the northern Channel Islands in January and north of Point Conception in May, and lowest in the southwestern portion of the Southern California Bight in all survey months. On coastal transects, seabird densities were greatest along central and southern portions of the mainland coastline from Point Arguello to Mexico. We estimated that 981,000 ?? 144,000 (x?? ?? SE) seabirds occurred in the study area in January, 862,000 ?? 95,000 in May, and 762,000 ?? 72,000 in September. California Gulls (Larus californicus), Western Grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis), and Cassin's Auklets (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) were most abundant in January surveys at sea, whereas Sooty and Short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus griseus and P. tenuirostris), phalaropes (Phalaropus spp.), and Western Gulls (Larus. occidentalis) were most abundant in May and September surveys. On coastal transects, California Gulls, Western Grebes, Western Gulls, and Surf Scoters (Melanitta perspicillata) were most abundant in January; Western Grebes, Western Gulls, Surf Scoters, and Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) were most abundant in May; and Sooty Shearwaters, Short-tailed Shearwaters, Western Gulls, Western Grebes, Brown Pelicans, and Heermann's Gulls (Larus heermanni) were most abundant in September. Compared to historical seabird densities collected in the same area two decades ago (1975-1978 and 1980-1983), abundance was lower by 14% in January, 57% in May, and 42% in September. Common Murres (Uria aalge, ???75% in each season), Sooty Shearwaters (55% in May, 27% in September), and Bonaparte's Gulls (L. Philadelphia, ???95% in each season) had lower densities. Conversely, Brown Pelicans (167% overall), Xantus's Murrelets (Synthliboramphus hypoleucus; 125% overall), Cassin's Auklets (100% overall), Ashy Storm-Petrels (Oceanodroma homochroa, 450% overall) and Western Gulls (55% in May), and Brandt's Cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus, 450% in September) had greater densities. Our results indicate that seabird abundance has declined off the southern California coast in the past two decades, and these declines may be warning signs of environmental degradation in the region or effects of larger forces such as climate change.

Studies in Avian Biology↗
USGS2000

Sensitivity of a high-elevation Rocky Mountain watershed to altered climate and CO2

We explored the hydrologic and ecological responses of a headwater mountain catchment, Loch Vale watershed, to climate change and doubling of atmospheric CO 2 scenarios using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). A slight (2°C) cooling, comparable to conditions observed over the past 40 years, led to greater snowpack and slightly less runoff, evaporation, transpiration, and plant productivity. An increase of 2°C yielded the opposite response, but model output for an increase of 4°C showed dramatic changes in timing of hydrologic responses. The snowpack was reduced by 50%, and runoff and soil water increased and occurred 4–5 weeks earlier with 4°C warming. Alpine tundra photosynthetic rates responded more to warmer and wetter conditions than subalpine forest, but subalpine forest showed a greater response to doubling of atmospheric CO 2 than tundra. Even though water use efficiency increased with the double CO 2 scenario, this had little effect on basin-wide runoff because the catchment is largely unvegetated. Changes in winter and spring climate conditions were more important to hydrologic and vegetation dynamics than changes that occurred during summer.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2000

Holocene environmental and climatic change in the Northern Great Plains as recorded in the geochemistry of sediments in Pickerel Lake, South Dakota

The sediments in Pickerel Lake, northeastern South Dakota, provide a continuous record of climatic and environmental change for the last 12000 yr. Sediments deposited between 12 and 6 ka (radiocarbon) show extreme variations in composition, oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of bulk carbonate, carbon isotopic composition of organic matter, and magnetic susceptibility. These variations reflect changes in sources of moisture, regional vegetation types, precipitation-evaporation balance, ground- and surface-water influx, water residence time, erosion, lake productivity, water level, and water temperature. The total carbonate content of late Pleistocene sediments steadily increased from <20% at the base of the core to as much as 80% in sediments deposited between 11 and 9 ka. By about 8 ka, the total carbonate content of the sediments had declined to about 40% where it remained with little variation for the past 8 kyr, suggesting relatively stable conditions. There are marked increases in values of ??13C and ??18O in bulk carbonate, and ??13C of organic matter, in sediments deposited between 10 and 6 ka as evaporation increased, and the vegetation in the watershed changed from forest to prairie. This shift toward more 18O-enriched carbonate may also reflect a change in source or seasonality of precipitation. During this early Holocene interval the organic carbon (OC) content of the sediments remained relatively low (2-3%), but then increased rapidly to 4.5% between 7 and 6 ka, reflecting the rapid transition to a prairie lake. The OC content fluctuates slightly between 4 and 6% in sediments deposited over the past 6 kyr. Like OC and total carbonate, most variables measured show little variation in the 13 m of sediment deposited over the past 6 kyr, particularly when compared with early Holocene variations. Although the magnetic susceptibility of this upper 13 m of sediment is generally low (<10 SI units), the upper six meters of the section is marked by striking 1 m cycles (ca. 400-500 yr periodicity) in susceptibility. These cycles are interpreted as being due to variations in the influx of eolian detrital-clastic material. Century-scale cyclic variations in different proxy variables for aridity and eolian activity from sediments deposited over the past 2000 yr in other lakes in the northern Great Plains, as well as in sand dune activity, suggest that aridity cycles were the dominant feature of late Holocene climate of the northern Great Plains. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Quaternary International↗
USGS2025

Late Quaternary environmental change in eastern Beringia

Eastern Beringia (Alaska and western Yukon) is an extensive, high-latitude region of North America that remained largely unglaciated throughout the Quaternary. Consequently, its sedimentary deposits preserve long-term environmental records that have intrigued scientists for nearly a century. Recent advances in palaeoecological proxies and dating methods have proved critical in addressing long-standing questions about regional late Quaternary environmental change. At the same time, they have led to new and sometimes controversial hypotheses. This review covers recent discoveries and unresolved questions focused on the period 57,000–10,000 calendar years before C.E. 1950 (cal yr BP). The middle Wisconsin interstadial (57,000–30,000 cal yr BP) was a period of relative warmth in eastern Beringia, compared with the late Wisconsin (30,000–14,000 cal yr BP). Early in the interstadial occasional Picea woodland was present amongst widespread shrub tundra. Palaeoecological, sedimentary and isotopic data indicate that climate was cooler and drier than the Holocene, with high rates of aeolian activity. Megafauna typically associated with the ‘mammoth steppe’ ecosystem (woolly mammoth [ Mammuthus primigenius ], horse [ Equus ] and steppe-bison [ Bison priscus ]) were present in some abundance. The transition towards late Wisconsin cold-stage conditions (35,000–30,000 cal yr BP) coincided with the establishment of the Bering Land Bridge and featured expansion of spatially varied, herbaceous vegetation, sometimes associated with deep active layers. Sedimentary DNA ( seda DNA) and macrofossil evidence show vegetation was not a prairie-like grassland, and the term “steppe-tundra” is a better descriptor. Permafrost pore-ice isotopic (δ 18 O) records suggest a step change in one or more climate drivers ca. 30,000 cal yr BP, by which time steppe-tundra was established across eastern Beringia. It remains uncertain whether Picea survived cold-stage conditions within isolated refugia, or whether it recolonized from south of the Laurentide-Cordilleran ice sheets. Genetic data suggest that Picea probably survived in situ ; however, there is no definitive fossil evidence to support this. The end-Pleistocene transition from steppe-tundra to shrub tundra began ca. 15,000 cal yr BP and took place within decades at local scales. The expansion of woody taxa coincided with rising sea levels, reduced sea-ice extent and an abrupt shift in atmospheric circulation that enhanced precipitation. During this time, Earth's orbital configuration caused high early-summer temperatures and strong seasonality, creating growing conditions very different from today. The vegetation consisted of Salix and Betula shrub tundra with open areas of herbs and graminoids. During the deglacial warming trend, the Younger Dryas oscillation (12,800–11,700 cal yr BP) was variably expressed. It is generally evident in records affected by adjacent oceans but can be absent at sites in continental areas. These past conditions and paleoenvironmental changes have implications for contemporary issues: hypotheses about Pleistocene mammalian extinction; sensitivity of eastern Beringia to major oceanic reorganizations and high-frequency climate variability; the nature of woody plant expansion with climate warming; grazing, hydroclimate and fire as controls over ecosystems; the efficacy of “Pleistocene rewilding” for carbon capture.

Beringia↗