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At least 685 records · Page 38Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid-latitude dry regions

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid-latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow-poor to wet, cold and snow-rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow-poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow-richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water-limitation and a longer snow-free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2014

Structure and vulnerability of Pacific Northwest tidal wetlands – A summary of wetland climate change research by the Western Ecology Division, U.S. EPA

Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2006

Trend analysis of time-series phenology of North America derived from satellite data

Remote sensing information has been used in studies of the seasonal dynamics (phenology) of the land surface since the 1980s. While our understanding of remote sensing phenology is still in development, it is regarded as a key to understanding land-surface processes over large areas. Phenologic metrics, including start of season, end of season, duration of season, and seasonally integrated greenness, were derived from 8 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data over North America spanning the years 1982-2003. Trend analysis was performed on annual summaries of the metrics to determine areas with increasing or decreasing growing season trends for the time period under study. Results show a trend toward earlier starts of season in limited areas of the mixed boreal forest, and a trend toward later end of season in well-defined areas of New England and southeastern Canada. Results in Saskatchewan, Canada, include a trend toward longer duration of season over a well-defined area, principally as a result of regional changes in land use practices. Changing seasonality appears to be an integrated response to a complex of factors, including climate change, but also, in many places, changes in land use practices. Copyright ?? 2006 by V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. All rights reserved.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2021

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

An assessment of plant species differences on cellulose oxygen isotopes from two Kenai Peninsula, Alaska peatlands: Implications for hydroclimatic reconstructions

Peat cores are valuable archives of past environmental change because they accumulate plant organic matter over millennia. While studies have primarily focused on physical, ecological, and some biogeochemical proxies, cores from peatlands have increasingly been used to interpret hydroclimatic change using stable isotope analyses of cellulose preserved in plant remains. Previous studies indicate that the stable oxygen isotope compositions (δ 18 O) preserved in alpha cellulose extracted from specific plant macrofossils reflect the δ 18 O values of past peatland water and thereby provide information on long-term changes in hydrology in response to climate. Oxygen isotope analyses of peat cellulose (δ 18 O cellulose ) have been successfully developed from peat cores that accumulate the same species for millennia. However, to fully exploit the potential of this proxy in species-diverse fens, studies are needed that account for the isotopic variations caused by changes in dominant species composition. This study assesses variation in δ 18 O values among peatland plant species and how they relate to environmental waters in two fens informally named Horse Trail and Goldfin, located on the leeward (dry) and windward (wet) side, respectively, of the climatic gradient across the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Environmental water δ 18 O values at both fens reflect unmodified δ 18 O values of mean annual precipitation, although at Goldfin standing pools were slightly influenced by evaporation. Modern plant [mosses and Carex spp. (sedges)] δ 18 O cellulose values indicate that all Carex spp. are higher (~2.5‰) than those of mosses, likely driven by their vascular structure and ecophysiological difference from non-vascular mosses. Moss δ 18 O cellulose values within each peatland are similar among the species, and differences appear related to evaporation effects on environmental waters within hummocks and hollows. The plant taxa-environmental water δ 18 O differences are applied to the previously determined Horse Trail Fen untreated bulk δ 18 O record. Results include significant changes to inferred millennial-to-centennial scale hydroclimatic trends where dominant taxa shift from moss to Carex spp., indicating that modern calibration datasets are necessary for interpreting stable isotopes from fens, containing a mix of vascular and nonvascular plants. Accounting for isotopic offsets through macrofossil analysis and modern plant-water isotope measurements opens new opportunities for hydroclimatic reconstructions from fen peatlands.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗
USGS2013

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Mechanisms of forest resilience

Ecosystems are dynamic systems with complex responses to environmental variation. In response to pervasive stressors of changing climate and disturbance regimes, many ecosystems are realigning rapidly across spatial scales, in many cases moving outside of their observed historical range of variation into alternative ecological states. In some cases, these new states are transitory and represent successional stages that may ultimately revert to the pre-disturbance condition; in other cases, alternative states are persistent and potentially self-reinforcing, especially under conditions of altered climate, disturbance regimes, and influences of non-native species. These reorganized states may appear novel, but reorganization is a characteristic ecosystem response to environmental variation that has been expressed and documented throughout the paleoecological record. Resilience, the ability of an ecosystem to recover or adapt following disturbance, is an emergent property that results from the expression of multiple mechanisms operating across levels of organism, population, and community. We outline a unifying framework of ecological resilience based on ecological mechanisms that lead to outcomes of persistence, recovery, and reorganization. Persistence is the ability of individuals to tolerate exposure to environmental stress, disturbance, or competitive interactions. As a direct expression of life history evolution and adaptation to environmental variation and stress, persistence is manifested most directly in survivorship and continued growth and reproduction of established individuals. When persistence has been overcome (e.g., following mortality from stress, disturbance, or both), populations must recover by reproduction. Recovery requires the establishment of new individuals from seed or other propagules following dispersal from the parent plant. When recovery fails to re-establish the pre-disturbance community, the ecosystem will assemble into a new state. Reorganization occurs along a gradient of magnitude, from changes in the relative dominance of species present in a community, to individual species replacements within an essentially intact community, to complete species turnover and shift to dominance by plants of different functional types, e.g. transition from forest to shrub or grass dominance. When this latter outcome is persistent and involves reinforcing mechanisms, the resulting state represents a vegetation type conversion (VTC), which in this framework represents an end member of reorganization processes. We explore reorganization in greater detail as this phase is increasingly observed but the least understood of the resilience responses. This resilience framework provides a direct and actionable basis for ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world, by targeting specific components of ecological response and managing for sustainable change.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2022

Scenario Planning Around Resource Challenges (SPARC): A management-centered approach to scenario planning for climate adaptation

Scenario planning is a strategy or framework that aids making decisions under uncertainty. Inspired by widespread use in the areas of military and business, recent work has applied the strategy to anticipate the effects of climate change on natural resource management. Most scenario planning efforts identify scenarios based on uncertain response in two key drivers of change (e.g., climate, ecology, land use) and then consider the resultant effects on the system and possible changes to management protocols. We present an alternative implementation of scenario planning — Scenario Planning Around Resource Challenges (SPARC) — that produces scenarios that are driven directly by management concerns rather than by the leading scientific uncertainties. The three-step process entails (1) compiling information from the manager (resources, goals, priorities), (2) building scenarios from the leading possible outcomes suggested by the scientific literature and manager perspectives, and (3) running each scenario (i.e., outcome) one-by-one to consider adjustments to management protocols. In short, the unknowns become the scenarios that reflect management priorities. Rather than focusing on the dominant scientific uncertainties, managers spend their time considering only the uncertainties that directly affect the decisions they make. Here, we examine this approach using a case study from a landscape conservation design process led by the Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative in the Madrean Ecoregion of southeastern Arizona, U.S.A.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2022

Climate-modulated range expansion of reef-building coral communities off southeast Florida during the late Holocene

The Holocene reefs off southeast Florida provide unique insights into the biogeographical and ecological response of western Atlantic coral reefs to past climate change that can be used to evaluate future climate impacts. However, previous studies have focused on millennial-scale change during the stable mid-Holocene, making it difficult to make inferences about the impact of shorter-term variability that is relevant to modern climate warming. Using uranium-series dating of newly discovered subfossil coral rubble deposits, we establish a new high-resolution record of coral community development off southeast Florida during a period of variable climate in the late Holocene. Our results indicate that coral communities dominated by reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. persisted in the nearshore environments off southeast Florida ~75 km north of their primary historical ranges between ~3500 and 1800 years before present. This timing coincides with regional warming at the northern extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool, suggesting a likely link between regional oceanographic climate and the expansion of cold-sensitive reef-building coral communities to the high-latitude reefs off southeast Florida. These findings not only extend the record of coral-reef development in southeast Florida into the late Holocene, but they also have important implications for future range expansions of reef-building coral communities in response to modern climate change.

Florida↗
USGS2011

Delivering climate science for the nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: The U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth's climate-temperature, precipitation, and other important aspects of climate-pose significant challenges to our Nation's natural resources now and will continue to do so. Managers of land, water, and living resources need to understand the impacts of climate change-which will exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species-so they can design effective response strategies. In 2008 Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); this center was formed to address challenges resulting from climate change and to empower natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision-making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has invested over $20M in cutting-edge climate change research and is now leading the effort to establish eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs).

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2009

Groundwater availability of the Central Valley Aquifer, California

California's Central Valley covers about 20,000 square miles and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the Central Valley with an estimated value of $17 billion per year. This irrigated agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage. Approximately one-sixth of the Nation's irrigated land is in the Central Valley, and about one-fifth of the Nation's groundwater demand is supplied from its aquifers. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California's expanding urban population. Since 1980, the population of the Central Valley has nearly doubled from 2 million to 3.8 million people. The Census Bureau projects that the Central Valley's population will increase to 6 million people by 2020. This surge in population has increased the competition for water resources within the Central Valley and statewide, which likely will be exacerbated by anticipated reductions in deliveries of Colorado River water to southern California. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conservation of agricultural land, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS Groundwater Resources Program made a detailed assessment of groundwater availability of the Central Valley aquifer system, that includes: (1) the present status of groundwater resources; (2) how these resources have changed over time; and (3) tools to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, such as the USGS Central Valley Regional Aquifer System and Analysis (CV-RASA) project and several other groundwater studies in the Valley completed by Federal, State and local agencies at differing scales. The principal product of this new assessment is a tool referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) that accounts for integrated, variable water supply and demand, and simulates surface-water and groundwater-flow across the entire Central Valley system. The development of the CVHM comprised four major elements: (1) a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) to compile, analyze and visualize data; (2) a texture model to characterize the aquifer system;(3) estimates of water-budget components by numerically modeling the hydrologic system with the Farm Process (FMP); and (4) simulations to assess and quantify hydrologic conditions.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2023

Incremental evolution of modeling a prognosis for polar bears in a rapidly changing Arctic

Updating predictions of the response of high-profile, at-risk species to climate change and anthropogenic stressors is vital for informing effective conservation action. Here, we review two prior generations of Bayesian network probability models predicting changes in global polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) population status, and provide a contemporary update based on recent research findings and sea-ice projections by newer climate models. We compare predictions of polar bear population response from all 3 models among four circumpolar Arctic ecoregions, using sea ice projections based on three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Consistent with the previous two model generations, polar bears will continue to experience increasing probability of declining or greatly declining populations throughout the 21st century, varying by emission scenario. Populations within the Polar Basin Divergent Ice Ecoregion have the highest predicted probability of declines, but predictions were slightly less dire relative to the previous model generation. Most of the influence, denoted by model sensitivity analysis, is from expected degradation and loss of sea ice and reduced access to marine prey. The lack of terrestrial prey adequate to substitute for loss of access to marine prey, as well as human-caused bear morality associated with hunting and defense of life and property encountered when polar bears are increasingly forced ashore also contributed to predicted declines. Although some tidewater glacial fjords and other localized onshore resources may provide local refugia, their benefit is transient. Our findings continue to inform priorities for inventory, monitoring, and research needs, and suggest that similar updates to models of other at-risk species can capitalize on the comparison framework we present here.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2022

Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses

Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses, and outcomes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico↗
USGS2016

When winners become losers: Predicted nonlinear responses of arctic birds to increasing woody vegetation

Climate change is facilitating rapid changes in the composition and distribution of vegetation at northern latitudes, raising questions about the responses of wildlife that rely on arctic ecosystems. One widely observed change occurring in arctic tundra ecosystems is an increasing dominance of deciduous shrub vegetation. Our goals were to examine the tolerance of arctic-nesting bird species to existing gradients of vegetation along the boreal forest-tundra ecotone, to predict the abundance of species across different heights and densities of shrubs, and to identify species that will be most or least responsive to ongoing expansion of shrubs in tundra ecosystems. We conducted 1,208 point counts on 12 study blocks from 2012–2014 in northwestern Alaska, using repeated surveys to account for imperfect detection of birds. We considered the importance of shrub height, density of low and tall shrubs (i.e. shrubs >0.5 m tall), percent of ground cover attributed to shrubs (including dwarf shrubs <0.5 m tall), and percent of herbaceous plant cover in predicting bird abundance. Among 17 species considered, only gray-cheeked thrush ( Catharus minimus ) abundance was associated with the highest values of all shrub metrics in its top predictive model. All other species either declined in abundance in response to one or more shrub metrics or reached a threshold where further increases in shrubs did not contribute to greater abundance. In many instances the relationship between avian abundance and shrubs was nonlinear, with predicted abundance peaking at moderate values of the covariate, then declining at high values. In particular, a large number of species were responsive to increasing values of average shrub height with six species having highest abundance at near-zero values of shrub height and abundance of four other species decreasing once heights reached moderate values (≤ 33 cm). Our findings suggest that increases in shrub cover and density will negatively affect abundance of only a few bird species and may potentially be beneficial for many others. As shrub height increases further, however, a considerable number of tundra bird species will likely find habitat increasingly unsuitable.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Ecological and management implications of climate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife species in the Northeast CASC region

Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and reproduction, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project seeks to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds along the U.S Atlantic coast. Ideally the suite of species selected will allow us to compare whether fish, marine mammals, shore and seabird predators are shifting their phenology at different rates than their primary prey and optimal habitat conditions, thus influencing trophic interactions and population dynamics. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted simultaneous to data collection and synthesis to determine what is known, and what knowledge/information/data gaps exist regarding regional phenological responses of coastal species to climate change. Project results will help managers assess the vulnerability of coastal species to climate change by providing information on how they are responding to impacts in the region.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Methodology for quantifying biodiversity

Protected and Conserved Areas (PCAs) are usually created and managed for multiple values, with biodiversity conservation being the primary value for most PCAs (see Chapter 1). When using Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) or Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) approaches to climate change mitigation, it is important to ensure that there are no unintended negative consequences on biodiversity and co-benefits for biodiversity are sought. This requires baseline biodiversity information and periodic monitoring. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has developed a monitoring framework to measure progress (CBD COP 15 2022) towards the GBF. The framework consists of: • headline indicators for national, regional and global monitoring; • global level indicators (collated from yes/no responses in national reports and used to provide a count of the number of countries having undertaken specific activities); • component indicators (which are a list of optional indicators that may apply at global, regional, national and sub-national levels); • complementary indicators (which are a list of optional indicators for thematic or in-depth analysis of each goal and target). Further details of the monitoring framework can be found in Decision 15/5: Monitoring framework for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (CBD COP 15, 2022). See Table 5.1 for headline indicators and related targets that they measure. These indicators are used to track national progress towards the GBF. However, those designing sub-national or regional PCA frameworks can use them as well. Biodiversity can be measured at different scales, both spatially and temporally, and at different levels and attributes of biological organisation (Noss, 1990). The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2022, December 18) includes goals and targets across scales, with Targets 1 and 3 focused on spatial planning and PCA creation, Targets 2 and 4 focused on restoration and species management to prevent extinction, Target 5 focused on fish stocks, Target 8 on minimising climate change impacts, Target 11 on ecosystem services, and Target 21 on biodiversity information for monitoring the GBF.

IUCN WCPA Protected Area Technical Report Series↗