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Assessment of hydrogeologic terrains, well-construction characteristics, groundwater hydraulics, and water-quality and microbial data for determination of surface-water-influenced groundwater supplies in West Virginia

In January 2014, a storage tank leaked, spilling a large quantity of 4-methylcyclohexane methanol into the Elk River in West Virginia and contaminating the water supply for more than 300,000 people. In response, the West Virginia Legislature passed Senate Bill 373, which requires the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (WVDHHR) to assess the susceptibility and vulnerability of public surface-water-influenced groundwater supply sources (SWIGS) and surface-water intakes statewide. In response to this mandate for reassessing SWIGS statewide, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the WVDHHR, Bureau of Public Health, Office of Environmental Health Services, compiled available data and summarized the results of previous groundwater studies to provide the WVDHHR with data that could be used as part of the process for assessing and determining SWIGS. Existing geologic, hydrologic, well-construction, water-quality, and other related data and information from previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrogeologic studies and the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database, in conjunction with data from the West Virginia Bureau for Public Health (WVBPH) Department of Health and Human Resources (WVDHHR) and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection database and files, were collected, compiled, and analyzed to help the WVDHHR to better assess public groundwater supply wells that may meet the definition of a surface-water-influenced- groundwater supply (SWIGS). In this study, measures of intrinsic susceptibility, which are characterized by the physical properties that affect the ease with which water moves through the unsaturated zone and, subsequently, into the saturated zone within an aquifer, showed that karst limestone aquifers are the aquifers most intrinsically susceptible to contamination within the State of West Virginia. Karst limestone aquifers are present within Cambrian- and Ordovician-age formations within West Virginia’s eastern panhandle and in Mississippian-age limestones within the Greenbrier River valley. Solution development within these limestone aquifers allows rapid recharge and flow of groundwater within the aquifer, both of which allow surface contaminants to easily enter the aquifer and travel long distances in a short period of time. Alluvial aquifers bordering the Ohio River in western West Virginia are also potentially highly susceptible to contamination because these alluvial aquifers can receive significant recharge from the adjacent Ohio River. Any potential contaminants that may be present in the river have the potential to enter the aquifer and contaminate wells completed within the sand and gravel alluvial sediments within which the wells are completed. These same alluvial sediments, however, help to retard the movement of bacteria and other potentially pathogenic organisms, such as Cryptosporidia and Giardia lamblia , into the aquifer. As a result, samples from alluvial aquifers bordering the Ohio River and elsewhere within the State do not commonly test positive for indicator bacteria, such as total coliform, fecal coliform, or Escherichia coli ( E. coli ). The alluvial sediments do not, however, provide assimilative capacity with respect to water soluble compounds such as nitrate and certain volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds. Therefore, the Ohio River alluvial aquifers are highly susceptible to organic compounds present in the river or on the land surface near a well. These aquifers are also susceptible to nitrate contamination from fertilizers, pesticides, and manure, which are commonly used on the fertile agricultural soils present on terraces along the Ohio River. Abandoned-coal-mine aquifers, which are typically used as a source of groundwater in southern West Virginia, are moderately susceptible to contamination. The vast network of voids from mine entries provide vast storage for groundwater in abandoned mine aquifers, and fracturing of overburden strata, which is common in areas of past or current mining, can allow rapid infiltration of contaminants to the aquifer. Where streams cross over below-drainage underground coal mines, there is an increased potential for contamination of coal-mine aquifers. As a result, above-drainage underground coal mines, those mines that are present at an elevation above local tributary drainage, are probably less susceptible to contamination than are below-drainage underground coal mines. Public groundwater supplies in abandoned coal mines need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis to assess the potential for recharge of contaminated surface water to enter below-drainage underground coal-mine aquifers and to assess potential hydraulic conductivity to nearby surface-water bodies, such as lakes, ponds, rivers, or streams. Fractured-rock aquifers compose an additional major type of aquifer within the State of West Virginia. Owing to their low permeability and their typically small groundwater capture areas, fractured-rock aquifers within the State of West Virginia typically have low susceptibility to contamination. However, there are exceptions, and wells completed in fractured-rock aquifers that are in close proximity to streams may be adversely affected by induced recharge from the stream. Where such systems are present, frequent bacterial testing of the source water can be used to ascertain the potential for microbial contamination of the aquifer. Intrinsic susceptibility alone does not fully predict whether or not a well is vulnerable to contamination, only that the hydrogeologic terrain is suitable for rapid transport of pathogenic organisms or chemical compounds to and within the aquifer. However, contaminants may or may not be present in the recharge water to an individual well or well field. Therefore, an assessment of potential contaminant sources, such as nearby gas wells, landfills, underground storage tanks, above ground storage tanks, major transportation corridors, surface or underground coal mines, and flood plains, is needed to assess vulnerability. The assessments need to be conducted on a case-by-case basis or, as has been done in this study, by collecting and compiling the number of potential contaminant sources that may be present in the source-water-protection area for an individual public groundwater supply source. Groundwater public-supply systems in areas of high intrinsic susceptibility and with a large number of potential contaminant sources within the recharge or source-water-protection area of individual wells or well fields are potentially vulnerable to contamination and probably warrant further evaluation as potential SWIGS. However, measures can be taken to educate the local population and initiate safety protocols and protective strategies to appropriately manage contaminant sources to prevent release of contaminants to the aquifer, therefore, reducing vulnerability of these systems to contamination. However, each public groundwater supply source needs to be assessed on an individual basis. Data presented in this report can be used to categorize and prioritize wells and springs that have a high potential for intrinsic susceptibility or vulnerability to contamination.

West Virginia↗

Delineation of groundwater recharge areas, western Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The unconfined sand-and-gravel aquifer in western Cape Cod, Massachusetts, which is the sole source of water supply for the communities in the area, is recharged primarily from precipitation. The rate of recharge from precipitation is estimated to be about 26 inches per year (in/yr), or about 60 percent of the precipitation rate. This recharge rate yields a flow through the aquifer of about 180 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Groundwater flows radially outward from the top of the water-table mound in the north-central part of the flow system toward the coast, as indicated by the water-table contours on the large map on this sheet. Recharge that reaches the water table near the top of the mound travels deeper through the aquifer than recharge that reaches the water table closer to the coast. All recharge to the aquifer ultimately discharges to pumping wells, streams, or coastal areas; however, some of this recharge may flow first through kettle ponds before eventually reaching these discharge points. Continued land development and population growth on western Cape Cod, and activities related to the operation of the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR), have created concerns regarding the supply of potable water in western Cape Cod and the quality and quantity of water discharging to ponds, streams, and coastal areas. Recent investigations estimated the future demand for drinking water in western Cape Cod, as well as the areas that contribute water to existing and proposed public-supply wells. Determining the source of freshwater that discharges to ponds, streams, and coastal areas is of critical importance in the protection of these natural resources for the communities of western Cape Cod. The purpose of this report is to illustrate concepts of ground-water recharge areas under average pumping and recharge conditions. This report presents results of an investigation conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence (AFCEE), to delineate the areas that contribute recharge to public-supply wells, ponds, streams, and coastal areas on western Cape Cod for average annual pumping and recharge rates for the period of 1994–1996. The time period of 1994–1996 was selected for this analysis because it represents the average stress conditions prior to large-scale pumping, treatment, and reinjection of water from the MMR Installation Restoration Program's ground-water remediation systems. The pumping and reinjection of large amounts of water from these remediation systems would complicate greatly the delineation of ground-water recharge areas and therefore is beyond the scope of this analysis. The Chemical Spill-4 plume-containment system, however, is included in the simulation since it has been operating since 1993 and has been pumping, treating, and reinjecting only about 0.2 Mgal/d of water. Since 1996, however, AFCEE has constructed remediation systems for seven additional contaminant plumes that are not included in this analysis. Currently (1999), these systems are pumping, treating, and reinjecting about 9.7 Mgal/d. By 2002, when all of these systems, including those being designed, are expected to be operating, it is estimated that they will be pumping, treating, and reinjecting as much as 15.6 Mgal/d of water in the western Cape Cod aquifer. For additional information on the hydrology and geology of western Cape Cod, the reader is referred to the following reports: LeBlanc and others (1986), Barlow and Hess (1993), Masterson and others (1997a), Masterson and others (1997b), Masterson and others (1998), Ogden Environmental and Energy Services, Inc. (1998) and Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. (1999).

Massachusetts↗

Stakeholder Evaluation for Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge: Completion Report

The National Wildlife Refuge System, managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), is the largest system of public lands in the world dedicated to wildlife conservation. There are over 545 national wildlife refuges nationwide, encompassing 95 million acres. As part of the National Wildlife Refuge System Improvement Act of 1997, each refuge is developing 15-year comprehensive conservation plans (CCPs). Each CCP describes a vision and desired future condition for the refuge and outlines goals, objectives, and management strategies for each refuge's habitat and visitor service programs. The CCP process for Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) in Davis, West Virginia was initiated in 2006. This planning process provides a unique opportunity for public input and involvement. Public involvement is an important part of the CCP process. Participation by parties with a stake in the resource (stakeholders) has the potential to increase understanding and support and reduce conflicts. Additionally, meaningful public participation in a decision process may increase trust and provide satisfaction in terms of both process and outcome for management and the public. Public meetings are a common way to obtain input from community members, visitors, and potential visitors. An 'Issues Workbook' is another tool the FWS uses to obtain public input and participation early in the planning process. Sometimes, however, these traditional methods do not capture the full range of perspectives that exist. A stakeholder evaluation is a way to more fully understand community preferences and opinions related to key topics in refuge planning. It can also help refuge staff understand how changes in management affect individuals in terms of their preference for services and experiences. Secondarily, a process such as this can address 'social goals' such as fostering trust in regulating agencies and reducing conflict among stakeholders. As part of the CCP planning effort at Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge, the FWS sponsored a stakeholder evaluation conducted by the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch of U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center the winter of 2006-2007. The stakeholder evaluation was intended to answer the following questions: 1)Which Refuge management issues are most important, and to whom?, 2)How do opinions about what is most important to stakeholders overlap or conflict?, 3)Why do stakeholders emphasize specific issues, and what values are driving this?, and 4)What potential solutions do stakeholders have for addressing important issues? This information will be used by the Refuge to help guide development of their CCP as they strive to balance stakeholder desires with their charge to manage the unique wetlands and uplands of the Canaan Valley for wildlife conservation.

Open-File Report↗

Assessment of water quality, benthic invertebrates, and periphyton in the Threemile Creek basin, Mobile, Alabama, 1999-2003

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a 4-year investigation of water quality and aquatic-community structure in Threemile Creek, an urban stream that drains residential areas in Mobile, Alabama. Water-quality samples were collected between March 2000 and September 2003 at four sites on Threemile Creek, and between March 2000 and October 2001 at two tributary sites that drain heavily urbanized areas in the watershed. Stream samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, fecal-indicator bacteria, and selected organic wastewater compounds. Continuous measurements of dissolved-oxygen concentrations, water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity were recorded at three sites on Threemile Creek during 1999?2003. Aquatic-community structure was evaluated by conducting one survey of the benthic invertebrate community and multiple surveys of the algal community (periphyton). Benthic invertebrate samples were collected in July 2000 at four sites on Threemile Creek; periphyton samples were collected at four sites on Threemile Creek and the two tributary sites during 2000 ?2003. The occurrence and distribution of chemical constituents in the water column provided an initial assessment of water quality in the streams; the structure of the benthic invertebrate and algal communities provided an indication of the cumulative effects of water quality on the aquatic biota. Information contained in this report can be used by planners and resource managers in the evaluation of proposed total maximum daily loads and other restoration efforts that may be implemented on Threemile Creek. The three most upstream sites on Threemile Creek had similar water chemistry, characterized by a strong calcium-bicarbonate component; the most downstream site on Threemile Creek was affected by tidal fluctuations and mixing from Mobile Bay and had a strong sodium-chloride component. The water chemistry at the tributary site on Center Street was characterized by a strong sodium-chloride component; the water chemistry at the second tributary site, Toulmins Spring Branch, was characterized by a strong calcium component without a dominant anionic species. The ratios of sodium to chloride at the tributary at Center Street were higher than typical values for seawater, indicating that sources other than seawater (such as leaking or overflowing sewer systems or industrial discharge) likely are contributors to the increased levels of sodium and chloride. Concentrations of fluoride and boron also were elevated at this site, indicating possible anthropogenic sources. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were not always within levels established by the Alabama Department of Environmental Management; continuous monitors recorded dissolved-oxygen concentrations that were repeatedly less than the minimum criterion (3.0 milligrams per liter) at the most downstream site on Threemile Creek. Water temperature exceeded the recommended criterion (32.2 degrees Celsius) at five of six sites in the Threemile Creek basin. The pH values were within established criteria (6.0 ? 8.5) at sites on Threemile Creek; however, pH values ranged from 7.2 to 10.0 at the tributary at Center Street and from 6.6 to 9.9 at Toulmins Spring Branch. Nutrient concentrations in the Threemile Creek basin reflect the influences of both land use and the complex hydrologic systems in the lower part of the basin. Nitrite-plus-nitrate concentrations exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ecoregion nutrient criteria in 88 percent of the samples. In 45 percent of the samples, total phosphorus concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency goal of 0.1 milligram per liter for preventing nuisance aquatic growth. Ratios of nitrogen to phosphorus indicate that both nutrients have limiting effects. Median concentrations of enterococci and fecal coliform bacteria were highest at the two tributary sites and lowest at the most upstream site on Threemile Creek. In general, concentrations o

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimated hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal distribution of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals for aquifers of the Virginia Coastal Plain

Water use from private-domestic wells accounts for nearly 40 percent of total groundwater withdrawals in the Virginia Coastal Plain Physiographic Province (henceforth called the Virginia Coastal Plain). However, because self-supplied domestic water use generally falls below the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) reporting and management threshold of 300,000 gallons per month, quantifying these withdrawals is challenging. This report builds upon the foundation of previous U.S. Geological Survey investigations by providing revised techniques to improve estimates of the aquifer source, spatial distribution, and monthly magnitude of these groundwater withdrawals. The aquifer sources of private-domestic wells in the Virginia Coastal Plain were estimated by cross-referencing 8,264 well records from the VDEQ and the Virginia Department of Health to a digital model of the Virginia Coastal Plain hydrogeologic framework. This analysis highlights the regional importance of the Yorktown-Eastover, Potomac, and surficial aquifers. Collectively, these three aquifers account for 80 percent of self-supplied domestic groundwater withdrawals. The population using self-supplied domestic water was estimated using census blocks, well-use ratios, building footprints, and land-use and land-cover data to produce a high-resolution, disaggregated, raster-based dataset. This approach improves upon previous models at the census-block or road-network scale by reducing the low-density spread of the self-supplied domestic population across undeveloped areas and concentrating the population and its corresponding water use in the areas where it is most likely to occur. Results show that an estimated 475,332 people comprise the 2020 self-supplied domestic population of the Virginia Coastal Plain, an increase of 5.7 percent since 2010, and the greatest concentrations of self-supplied domestic population surround large cities. Estimates could be further refined with the addition of current and complete spatial data on public water-system service areas. The quantity of water used by the self-supplied domestic population was estimated by modifying published state per-capita water-use coefficients with the corresponding monthly variability assessed from Virginia Coastal Plain public water-system withdrawal data. This analysis estimates an average increase of 12 percent from June through August and an average decrease of 8 percent from December through March from the baseline annual average of 80 gallons per day per capita, which generally matches similar studies in the eastern United States. The application of these revised methodologies for the estimation of private-domestic wells and the self-supplied domestic population improves understanding of domestic groundwater use in the Virginia Coastal Plain across hydrogeologic, spatial, and temporal scales. These revisions help better inform water-resource managers and decision makers and support higher resolution groundwater modeling. Furthermore, these methods are transferrable to other areas where self-supplied domestic water withdrawals are important to the overall water budget.

Virginia↗

Arsenic, iron, lead, manganese, and uranium concentrations in private bedrock wells in southeastern New Hampshire, 2012-2013

Trace metals, such as arsenic, iron, lead, manganese, and uranium, in groundwater used for drinking have long been a concern because of the potential adverse effects on human health and the aesthetic or nuisance problems that some present. Moderate to high concentrations of the trace metal arsenic have been identified in drinking water from groundwater sources in southeastern New Hampshire, a rapidly growing region of the State (Montgomery and others, 2003). During the past decade (2000–10), southeastern New Hampshire, which is composed of Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Strafford Counties, has grown in population by nearly 48,700 (or 6.4 percent) to 819,100. These three counties contain 62 percent of the State’s population but encompass only about 22 percent of the land area (New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning, 2011). According to a 2005 water-use study (Hayes and Horn, 2009), about 39 percent of the population in these three counties in southeastern New Hampshire uses private wells as sources of drinking water, and these wells are not required by the State to be routinely tested for trace metals or other contaminants. Some trace metals have associated human-health benchmarks or nonhealth guidelines that have been established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate public water supplies. The EPA has established a maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L) for arsenic (As) and a MCL of 30 μg/L for uranium (U) because of associated health risks (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). Iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) are essential for human health, but Mn at high doses may have adverse cognitive effects in children (Bouchard and others, 2011; Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, 2012); therefore, the EPA has issued a lifetime health advisory (LHA) of 300 μg/L for Mn. Recommended secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs) for Fe (300 μg/L) and Mn (50 μg/L) were established primarily as nonhealth guidelines—based on aesthetic considerations, such as taste or the staining of laundry and plumbing fixtures—because these contaminants, at the SMCLs, are not considered to present risks to human health. Because lead (Pb) contamination of drinking water typically results from corrosion of plumbing materials belonging to water-system customers but still poses a risk to human health, the EPA established an action level (AL) of 15 μg/L for Pb instead of an MCL or SMCL (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). The 15-μg/L AL for Pb has been adopted by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services for public water systems, and if exceeded, the public water system must inform their customers and undertake additional actions to control corrosion in the pipes of the distribution system (New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, 2013). Unlike the quality of drinking water provided by public water suppliers, the quality of drinking water obtained from private wells in New Hampshire is not regulated; consequently, private wells are sampled only when individual well owners voluntarily choose to sample them. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA New England, conducted an assessment in 2012–13 to provide private well owners and State and Federal health officials with information on the distribution of trace-metal (As, Fe, Pb, Mn, and U) concentrations in groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the three counties of southeastern New Hampshire. This fact sheet analyzes data from water samples collected by a randomly selected group of private well owners from the three-county study area and describes the major findings for trace-metal concentrations.

New Hampshire↗

Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), has developed a water-quality model, called SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), to assist in regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) and nutrient-criteria activities in New England. SPARROW is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) stream loads to nutrient sources and watershed characteristics. The statistical relations in these equations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW models are built using a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Watershed boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network through the use of a digital elevation model and existing digitized watershed divides. Nutrient source data is from permitted wastewater discharge data from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS), various land-use sources, and atmospheric deposition. Physical watershed characteristics include drainage area, land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. The New England SPARROW models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus have R-squared values of 0.95 and 0.94, with mean square errors of 0.16 and 0.23, respectively. Variables that were statistically significant in the total nitrogen model include permitted municipal-wastewater discharges, atmospheric deposition, agricultural area, and developed land area. Total nitrogen stream-loss rates were significant only in streams with average annual flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. In streams larger than this, there is nondetectable in-stream loss of annual total nitrogen in New England. Variables that were statistically significant in the total phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to simulate the streamflows and water balance of the Red River Basin, 1980–2016

The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to develop and calibrate a streamflow and water balance model for the Red River Basin as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census, a research effort focused on developing innovative water accounting tools and conducting assessments of water use and availability at regional and national spatial scales. The PRMS is a deterministic model that simulates the effects of climate, land cover, and water use on watershed hydrology on the basis of physical processes and spatial attributes of the watershed. The model was used to estimate streamflow at daily and monthly temporal scales for the 1980–2016 period and to evaluate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic influences on streamflow and water budget components. Sixty-three percent of streamgages were calibrated successfully for the monthly time step and 43 percent of streamgages were successfully calibrated for the daily time step. Some of the challenges of calibrating streamgages included estimating low amounts of streamflow in dry areas of the basin and accurately representing watershed characteristics related to evapotranspiration in the basin, among other factors. The model estimated streamflow with some accuracy for 42 percent and 29 percent of the 73 streamgages used to evaluate the model at monthly and daily time steps, respectively. Relative to no-water-use conditions, water use increased streamflow volumes (that is, return flow from reservoir releases) the most on the main stem of the Red River, the North Fork of the Red River, and the Ouachita River. Water withdrawal decreased streamflow volumes most in the Red River near the outlet of the basin and in Caney Creek. Streamflow volumes on the North Fork of the Red River changed most as a result of water use. The Red River Basin PRMS model provided estimates of streamflow that were limited in their accuracy by (1) the availability of accurate water-use data; (2) the coarse resolution of spatial parameters (such as those for impervious area or plant canopy), which leads to the homogenization of physical features in small watersheds in the model domain; and (3) the accuracy of spatial patterns of precipitation distribution across the model domain. Improvements in the quality and quantity of available water-use data and finer resolution spatial parameter and climate data could lead to the development of better-informed models in the future that are capable of making more accurate estimates of streamflow, because they are more representative of physical and hydrologic conditions in the Red River Basin.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma↗

Hydrogeology and model-simulated groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer, southwestern Oklahoma, 1980–2015

The 1973 Oklahoma Water Law (82 OK Stat § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s groundwater basins to support a determination of the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin (hereinafter referred to as an “aquifer”). The maximum annual yield allocated per acre of land is known as the equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rate. At present (2021), the OWRB has not yet established a maximum annual yield and EPS pumping rate for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. To provide updated information to the OWRB that could support evaluation and determination of an appropriate maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the OWRB, conducted a hydrologic investigation and evaluated the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Red River aquifer. The Salt Fork Red River aquifer in Greer, Harmon, and Jackson Counties of southwestern Oklahoma is composed of about 274.5 square miles of alluvium and terrace deposits associated with the Salt Fork Red River. The mean annual recharge rate to the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 was estimated to be about 2.94 inches per year, or 10.0 percent of the mean annual precipitation for the same period (29.4 inches per year). This 1980–2015 mean annual recharge rate is equivalent to a mean annual recharge rate of about 38,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer excluding about 19,764 acres comprising the Mulberry Creek and Horse Creek terraces. The mean annual recharge rates upgradient and downgradient from USGS streamgage 07300500 Salt Fork Red River at Mangum, Okla. (hereinafter referred to as the “Mangum gage”), apportioned by aquifer area (41.5 and 58.5 percent, respectively), were about 16,000 and 22,000 acre-ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual groundwater use for the study period (1980–2015) was 3,532.7 acre-ft/yr; about 77 percent of that groundwater use was for irrigation, and about 23 percent was for public supply. Most groundwater use for irrigation was associated with wells in the Martha terrace. A hydrogeologic framework was developed for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and included a definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of the numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model for the Salt Fork Red River aquifer that reasonably represents the groundwater-flow system was developed to constrain the construction and calibration of the numerical model. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the Salt Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2015 and included a subaccounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from the Mangum gage. The numerical groundwater-flow model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was constructed by using MODFLOW-2005 with the Newton formulation solver. The model of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was spatially discretized into 1,050 rows, 1,125 columns, about 170,000 active cells measuring 200 by 200 feet (ft), and a single convertible layer. The model was temporally discretized into 432 monthly transient stress periods (each with two time steps to improve model stability). An initial steady-state stress period represented mean annual inflows to, and outflows from, the aquifer and produced a solution that was used as the initial condition for subsequent transient stress periods as well as some groundwater-availability scenarios. The model was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells and base-flow observations at selected streamgages. The simulated saturated thickness of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer was determined by subtracting the altitude of the aquifer base from the simulated water-table altitude at the end of the numerical-model period (2015). The simulated saturated thickness was more than 75 ft in a paleochannel in the Dodson terrace near the Texas border. The mean aquifer thickness (sum of saturated and unsaturated) was 49.62 ft, and the mean saturated thickness was 28.55 ft. A simulated mean transmissivity of 1,024 feet squared per day was computed from the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and saturated thickness of each cell. The simulated available water in storage at the end of the numerical-model period (2015) was 526,117 acre-feet (acre-ft); about 42 percent of that total was available upgradient from the Mangum gage, and about 58 percent of that total was available downgradient from the Mangum gage (including the Mangum terrace). Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were run using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that ensures a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were about 0.51, 0.48, and 0.48 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 155,929-acre modeled aquifer area, these rates correspond to annual yields of about 78,800, 74,900, and 74,700 acre-ft/yr, respectively. For the 20-year EPS scenario, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 6-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases; for the 40- and 50-year EPS scenarios, decreasing and increasing recharge by 10 percent resulted in a 7-percent change in the EPS pumping rate in both cases. Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the Salt Fork Red River aquifer and base flows in the Salt Fork Red River. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by quantifying differences in groundwater storage and base flow in four 50-year scenarios, which applied (1) no groundwater pumping, (2) mean pumping rates for the study period (1980–2015), (3) 2015 pumping rates, and (4) increasing demand pumping rates at simulated wells. The increasing demand pumping rates assumed a cumulative 20.4-percent increase in pumping over 50 years based on 2010–60 demand projections for southwestern Oklahoma. Groundwater storage after 50 years with no pumping was 535,000 acre-ft, or 8,900 acre-ft (1.7 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude increase of 0.48 ft. Groundwater storage after 50 years of pumping at the mean rate for the study period (1980–2015) was 519,900 acre-ft, or 6,200 acre-ft (1.2 percent) less than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.34 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with 2015 pumping rates was 513,100 acre-ft, or 13,000 acre-ft (2.5 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.71 ft. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with increasing demand pumping rates was 509,700 acre-ft, or 16,500 acre-ft (3.1 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 0.89 ft. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage. The period January 1983–December 1992 was chosen as the simulated drought period. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model (no drought) at the end of the simulated drought period (1992). To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1983–92). Upstream inflows from the Salt Fork Red River, Turkey Creek, and Bitter Creek were reduced by 75 percent. Groundwater storage at the end of the drought period (1992) was 479,200 acre-ft, or 53,200 acre-ft (10.0 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model at the end of the drought period. This decrease in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 2.9 ft. At the end of the 10-year hypothetical drought period, simulated base flows at the Mangum gage and USGS streamgage 07301110 Salt Fork Red River near Elmer, Okla., had decreased by about 80 and 70 percent, respectively.

Oklahoma↗

Strategic directions for U.S. Geological Survey water science, 2012-2022 - Observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the Nation

Executive Summary This report expands the Water Science Strategy that was begun in the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). The report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Strategic Science Plan is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences . The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 130-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report. Priority actions focus on the following: Improve integrated science planning for water. Expand and enhance water-resource monitoring networks. Characterize the water cycle through development of state-of-the-art 3-D/4-D hydrogeologic framework models at multiple scales. Clarify the linkage between human water use (engineered hydrology) and the water cycle (natural hydrology). Advance ecological flow science. Provide flood-inundation science and information. Develop rapid deployment teams for water-related emergencies. Conduct integrated watershed assessment, research, and modeling. Deliver water data and analyses to the Nation. The body of the report is presented as a hierarchal set of 5 goals, 14 objectives, and 27 strategic actions that the USGS should undertake to advance water science through year 2022. The goals deal with: Providing society the information it needs regarding the amount and quality of water in all components of the water cycle at high temporal and spatial resolution, nationwide; Advancing our understanding of processes that determine water availability; Predicting changes in the quantity and quality of water resources in response to changing climate, population, land use, and management scenarios; Anticipating and responding to water-related emergencies and conflicts; and Delivering timely hydrologic data, analyses, and decision-support tools seamlessly across the Nation to support water-resource decisions. Scientific information produced on water resources would be without value if it were not communicated to society in a fashion that can inform decisions and actions. Therefore, the chapter following the goals describes how the USGS should inform, involve, and educate society about the science it produces. This includes discussions on local outreach and the use of social media for effective communication. This report concludes with a chapter devoted to the crosscutting science issues of the Water Mission Area with the other USGS Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and Minerals, Environmental Health Science, and Natural Hazards. Not one of these Mission Areas stands alone—all must work together and integrate their actions to fulfill the USGS science mission for the future. This final chapter identifies the important linkages that must be realized and maintained for this integration to occur.

Open-File Report↗

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: Lessons and conclusions

One of the greatest earthquakes of all time struck south-central Alaska on March 27, 1964. Strong motion lasted longer than for most recorded earthquakes, and more land surface was dislocated, vertically and horizontally, than by any known previous temblor. Never before were so many effects on earth processes and on the works of man available for study by scientists and engineers over so great an area. The seismic vibrations, which directly or indirectly caused most of the damage, were but surface manifestations of a great geologic event-the dislocation of a huge segment of the crust along a deeply buried fault whose nature and even exact location are still subjects for speculation. Not only was the land surface tilted by the great tectonic event beneath it, with resultant seismic sea waves that traversed the entire Pacific, but an enormous mass of land and sea floor moved several tens of feet horizontally toward the Gulf of Alaska. Downslope mass movements of rock, earth, and snow were initiated. Subaqueous slides along lake shores and seacoasts, near-horizontal movements of mobilized soil (“landspreading”), and giant translatory slides in sensitive clay did the most damage and provided the most new knowledge as to the origin, mechanics, and possible means of control or avoidance of such movements. The slopes of most of the deltas that slid in 1964, and that produced destructive local waves, are still as steep or steeper than they were before the earthquake and hence would be unstable or metastable in the event of another great earthquake. Rockslide avalanches provided new evidence that such masses may travel on cushions of compressed air, but a widely held theory that glaciers surge after an earthquake has not been substantiated. Innumerable ground fissures, many of them marked by copious emissions of water, caused much damage in towns and along transportation routes. Vibration also consolidated loose granular materials. In some coastal areas, local subsidence was superimposed on regional tectonic subsidence to heighten the flooding damage. Ground and surface waters were measurably affected by the earthquake, not only in Alaska but throughout the world. Expectably, local geologic conditions largely controlled the extent of structural damage, whether caused directly by seismic vibrations or by secondary effects such as those just described. Intensity was greatest in areas underlain by thick saturated unconsolidated deposits, least on indurated bedrock or permanently frozen ground, and intermediate on coarse well-drained gravel, on morainal deposits, or on moderately indurated sedimentary rocks. Local and even regional geology also controlled the distribution and extent of the earthquake's effects on hydrologic systems. In the conterminous United States, for example, seiches in wells and bodies of surface water were controlled by geologic structures of regional dimension. Devastating as the earthquake was, it had many long-term beneficial effects. Many of these were socioeconomic or engineering in nature; others were of scientific value. Much new and corroborative basic geologic and hydrologic information was accumulated in the course of the earthquake studies, and many new or improved investigative techniques were developed. Chief among these, perhaps, were the recognition that lakes can be used as giant tiltmeters, the refinement of methods for measuring land-level changes by observing displacements of barnacles and other sessile organisms, and the relating of hydrology to seismology by worldwide study of hydroseisms in surface-water bodies and in wells. The geologic and hydrologic lessons learned from studies of the Alaska earthquake also lead directly to better definition of the research needed to further our understanding of earthquakes and of how to avoid or lessen the effects of future ones. Research is needed on the origins and mechanisms of earthquakes, on crustal structure, and on the generation of tsunamis and local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

Alaska↗

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

Canadian groundwater inventory: Regional hydrogeological characterization of the south-central part of the maritimes basin

The Maritimes Groundwater Initiative (MGWI) is a large, integrated, regional hydrogeological study focusing on a representative area of the Maritimes Basin in eastern Canada. The study area covers a land surface of 10 500 km 2 , of which 9 400 km 2 are underlain by sedimentary rocks. This sedimentary bedrock is composed of a sequence of discontinuous strata of highly variable hydraulic properties, and is generally overlain by a thin layer of glacial till(mostly 4-8 m thick, but can reach 20 m). Depending on the area, 46 to 100% of the population relieson groundwater for water supply, either from municipal wells or from private residential wells. The main objectives of this project were to improve the general understanding of groundwater-flow dynamics and to provide baseline information and tools for a regional groundwater-resource assessment. This bulletin presents the current state of understanding of this hydrogeological system, along with the methodology used to characterize and analyze its distinct behaviour at three different scales. This regional bedrock aquifer system contains confined and unconfined zones, and each of its lenticular permeable strata extends only a few kilometres. Preferential groundwater recharge occurs where sandy till is present. The mean annual recharge rate to the bedrock is estimated to range between 130 and 165 mm/a. Several geological formations of this basin provide good aquifers, with hydraulic conductivity in the range 5x10 -6 to 10 -4 m/s. Based on results of numerical flow modelling, faults were interpreted to have a key role in the regional flow. Pumping-test results revealed that the fractured aquifers can locally be very heterogeneous and anisotropic, but behave similarly to porous media. Work performed at the local scale indicated that most water-producing fractures seem to be subhorizontal and generally oriented in a northeasterly direction, in agreement with regional structures and pumping-test results. Almost all residential wells are shallow (about 20 m) open holes that are cased only through the surficial sediments.

Bulletin of the Geological Survey of Canada↗

LiDAR-Derived Flood-Inundation Maps for Real-Time Flood-Mapping Applications, Tar River Basin, North Carolina

Flood-inundation maps were created for selected streamgage sites in the North Carolina Tar River basin. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data with a vertical accuracy of about 20 centimeters, provided by the Floodplain Mapping Information System of the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program, were processed to produce topographic data for the inundation maps. Bare-earth mass point LiDAR data were reprocessed into a digital elevation model with regularly spaced 1.5-meter by 1.5-meter cells. A tool was developed as part of this project to connect flow paths, or streams, that were inappropriately disconnected in the digital elevation model by such features as a bridge or road crossing. The Hydraulic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, was used for hydraulic modeling at each of the study sites. Eleven individual hydraulic models were developed for the Tar River basin sites. Seven models were developed for reaches with a single gage, and four models were developed for reaches of the Tar River main stem that receive flow from major gaged tributaries, or reaches in which multiple gages were near one another. Combined, the Tar River hydraulic models included 272 kilometers of streams in the basin, including about 162 kilometers on the Tar River main stem. The hydraulic models were calibrated to the most current stage-discharge relations at 11 long-term streamgages where rating curves were available. Medium- to high-flow discharge measurements were made at some of the sites without rating curves, and high-water marks from Hurricanes Fran and Floyd were available for high-stage calibration. Simulated rating curves matched measured curves over the full range of flows. Differences between measured and simulated water levels for a specified flow were no more than 0.44 meter and typically were less. The calibrated models were used to generate a set of water-surface profiles for each of the 11 modeled reaches at 0.305-meter increments for water levels ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the downstream-most gage in each modeled reach. Inundated areas were identified by subtracting the water-surface elevation in each 1.5-meter by 1.5-meter grid cell from the land-surface elevation in the cell through an automated routine that was developed to identify all inundated cells hydraulically connected to the cell at the downstream-most gage in the model domain. Inundation maps showing transportation networks and orthoimagery were prepared for display on the Internet. These maps also are linked to the U.S. Geological Survey North Carolina Water Science Center real-time streamflow website. Hence, a user can determine the near real-time stage and water-surface elevation at a U.S. Geological Survey streamgage site in the Tar River basin and link directly to the flood-inundation maps for a depiction of the estimated inundated area at the current water level. Although the flood-inundation maps represent distinct boundaries of inundated areas, some uncertainties are associated with these maps. These are uncertainties in the topographic data for the hydraulic model computational grid and inundation maps, effective friction values (Manning's n), model-validation data, and forecast hydrographs, if used. The Tar River flood-inundation maps were developed by using a steady-flow hydraulic model. This assumption clearly has less of an effect on inundation maps produced for low flows than for high flows when it typically takes more time to inundate areas. A flood in which water levels peak and fall slowly most likely will result in more inundation than a similar flood in which water levels peak and fall quickly. Limitations associated with the steady-flow assumption for hydraulic modeling vary from site to site. The one-dimensional modeling approach used in this study resulted in good agreement between measurements and simulations. T

North Carolina↗

Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was developed by the National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. During 2010, the USGS used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to create a hydrologic model for the Lake Michigan Basin to assess the probable effects of climate change on future groundwater and surface-water resources. The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) model and the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) program also were used to support USGS GLRI projects that required estimates of streamflows throughout the Great Lakes Basin. This information on existing watershed models, along with an assessment of geologic, soils, and land-use data across the Great Lakes Basin and the identification of problems that exist in selected tributary watersheds that could be addressed by a watershed model, was used to identify three watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin for future modeling by the USGS. These watersheds are the Kalamazoo River Basin in Michigan, the Tonawanda Creek Basin in New York, and the Bad River Basin in Wisconsin. These candidate watersheds have hydrogeologic, land-type, and soil characteristics that make them distinct from each other, but that are representative of other tributary watersheds within the Great Lakes Basin. These similarities in the characteristics among nearby watersheds will enhance the usefulness of a model by improving the likelihood that parameter values from a previously modeled watershed could reliably be used in the creation of a model of another watershed in the same region. The software program Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) was selected to simulate the hydrologic, sedimentary, and water-quality processes in these selected watersheds. HSPF is a versatile, process-based, continuous-simulation model that has been used extensively by the scientific community, has the ongoing technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and USGS, and provides a means to evaluate the effects that land-use changes or management practices might have on the simulated processes.

Great Lakes Basin↗

Geophysical Characterization of the Quaternary-Cretaceous Contact Using Surface Resistivity Methods in Franklin and Webster Counties, South-Central Nebraska

To help manage and understand the Platte River system in Nebraska, the Platte River Cooperative Hydrology Study (COHYST), a group of state and local governmental agencies, developed a regional ground-water model. The southern boundary of this model lies along the Republican River, where an area with insufficient geologic data immediately north of the Republican River led to problems in the conceptualization of the simulated flow system and to potential problems with calibration of the simulation. Geologic descriptions from a group of test holes drilled in south-central Nebraska during 2001 and 2002 indicated a possible hydrologic disconnection between the Quaternary-age alluvial deposits in the uplands and those in the Republican River lowland. This disconnection was observed near a topographic high in the Cretaceous-age Niobrara Formation, which is the local bedrock. In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the COHYST, collected surface geophysical data near these test holes to better define this discontinuity. Two-dimensional imaging methods for direct-current resistivity and capacitively coupled resistivity were used to define the subsurface distribution of resistivity along several county roads near Riverton and Inavale, Nebraska. The relation between the subsurface distribution of resistivity and geology was defined by comparing existing geologic descriptions of test holes to surface-geophysical resistivity data along two profiles and using the information gained from these comparisons to interpret the remaining four profiles. In all of the resistivity profile sections, there was generally a three-layer subsurface interpretation, with a resistor located between two conductors. Further comparison of geologic data with the geophysical data and with surficial features was used to identify a topographic high in the Niobrara Formation near the Franklin Canal which was coincident with a resistivity high. Electrical properties of the Niobrara Formation made accurate interpretation of the resistivity profile sections difficult and less confident because of similar resistivity of this formation and that of the coarser-grained sediment of the Quaternary-age deposits. However, distinct conductive features were identified within the resistivity profile sections that aided in delineating the contact between the resistive Quaternary-age deposits and the resistive Niobrara Formation. Using this information, an interpretive boundary was drawn on the resistivity profile sections to represent the contact between the Quaternary-age alluvial deposits and the Cretaceous-age Niobrara Formation. A digital elevation model (DEM) of the top of the Niobrara Formation was constructed using the altitudes from the interpreted contact lines. This DEM showed that the general trend of top of the Niobrara Formation dips to the southeast. At the north edge of the study site, the Niobrara Formation topographic high trends east-west with an altitude range of 559 meters in the west to 543 meters in the east. Based on the land-surface elevation and the Niobrara Formation DEM, the estimated thickness of the Quaternary-age alluvial deposits throughout the study area was mapped and showed a thinning of the Quaternary-age alluvial deposits to the north, approximately where the topographic high of the Niobrara Formation is located. This topographic high in the Niobrara Formation has the potential to act as a barrier to ground-water flow from the uplands alluvial aquifer to the Republican River alluvial aquifer as shown in the resistivity profile sections. The Quaternary-age alluvial deposits in the uplands and those in the Republican River Valley are not fully represented as disconnected because it is possible that there are ground-water flow paths that were not mapped during this study.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report↗