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Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems. Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages. A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from the workshop participants via preworkshop surveys, focused on addressing the following questions: What are the climatic, ecological, and human drivers of fire regimes, both past and future? What is the role of humans in shaping historical fire regimes? How does fire ecology affect land cover changes, biodiversity, carbon storage, and human land uses? What are the historical fire trends and their impacts across biomes? Are their impacts local and/or regional? Are the fire trends in the last two decades unprecedented from a historical perspective? The workshop 1 aimed to develop testable hypotheses about fire, climate, vegetation, and human interactions by leveraging the confluence of proxy, observational, and model data related to decadal- to millennial-scale fire activity on our planet. New research directions focused on broad interdisciplinary approaches to highlight how knowledge about past fire activity could provide a more complete understanding of the predictive capacity of fire models and inform fire policy in the face of our changing climate.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

EAARL-B coastal topography: eastern New Jersey, Hurricane Sandy, 2012: first surface

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived first-surface (FS) topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, Florida. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets for a portion of the New Jersey coastline beachface, acquired pre-Hurricane Sandy on October 26, and post-Hurricane Sandy on November 1 and November 5, 2012. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar system, known as the second-generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL-B), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL-B system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nm) lidar designed to map nearshore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL-B sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) and infrared (IR) digital cameras, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL-B platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL-B system. The resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the "bare earth" under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Lidar for Science and Resource Management Web site.

New Jersey↗

EAARL Coastal Topography-Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 2010: Bare Earth

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived bare-earth (BE) and submerged topography datasets were produced collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the Chandeleur Islands, acquired March 3, 2010. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multispectral color-infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Decision Support for Coastal Science and Management website.

Data Series↗

Sediment sources and sealed-pavement area drive polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and metal occurrence in urban streams

Metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are common pollutants in urban streambed sediment, yet their occurrence is highly variable and difficult to predict. To investigate sources of PAHs and metals to streambed sediment, we sampled pavement dust, soil, and streambed sediment in 10 urban watersheds in three regions of the United States and applied a fallout-radionuclide-based sediment-source analysis to quantify the pavement dust contribution to stream sediment (%dust). We also mapped the area of sealcoated pavement in each watershed (%sealed) to investigate the role of coal-tar pavement sealant (CTS) as a PAH source. Median total and carbon-normalized total PAH concentrations were significantly higher in streambed sediment in the Northeast (54.3 mg/kg and 2.71 mg/gOC) and Southeast (5.37 mg/kg and 1.36 mg/gOC), where CTS is commonly used, than in the Northwest (2.11 mg/kg and 0.071 mg/gOC), where CTS is rarely used. Generalized additive models indicated that %sealed and in some cases %dust significantly affected total PAH concentrations in streambed sediments. The %dust was a significant variable for common urban metals: Cu, Pb, and Zn. These findings advance our quantitative understanding of the role of pavement dust as a source and a vector of contaminants to urban streams.

Georgia, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Virgini↗

Sequestration of hydrophobic organic contaminants by geosorbents

The chemical interactions of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) with soils and sediments (geosorbents) may result in strong binding and slow subsequent release rates that significantly affect remediation rates and endpoints. The underlying physical and chemical phenomena potentially responsible for this apparent sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents are not well understood. This challenges our concepts for assessing exposure and toxicity and for setting environmental quality criteria. Currently there are no direct observational data revealing the molecular-scale locations in which nonpolar organic compounds accumulate when associated with natural soils or sediments. Hence macroscopic observations are used to make inferences about sorption mechanisms and the chemical factors affecting the sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents. Recent observations suggest that HOC interactions with geosorbents comprise different inorganic and organic surfaces and matrices, and distinctions may be drawn along these lines, particularly with regard to the roles of inorganic micropores, natural sorbent organic matter components, combustion residue particulate carbon, and spilled organic liquids. Certain manipulations of sorbates or sorbent media may help reveal sorption mechanisms, but mixed sorption phenomena complicate the interpretation of macroscopic data regarding diffusion of HOCs into and out of different matrices and the hysteretic sorption and aging effects commonly observed for geosorbents. Analytical characterizations at the microscale, and mechanistic models derived therefrom, are needed to advance scientific knowledge of HOC sequestration, release, and environmental risk.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Exploring the relevance of the multidimensionality of wildlife recreationists to conservation behaviors: A case study in Virginia

Wildlife recreationists' participation in conservation behaviors could provide key support to the conservation efforts of state fish and wildlife agencies. However, little is known about how identifying with multiple forms of wildlife recreation (i.e., hunters, anglers, birders, wildlife viewers) may influence participation in conservation behaviors, specifically for supporting state fish and wildlife agencies and their conservation goals. Using a mixed-mode survey of Virginia wildlife recreationists, we explored the hypothesized relationship between individuals' participation in conservation behaviors and their identification with multiple forms of consumptive and nonconsumptive wildlife recreation. We found wildlife recreation identity is multidimensional, with many individuals identifying with consumptive and nonconsumptive identities simultaneously. Further, consumptive-only recreationists (i.e., hunters and/or anglers) participated in conservation behaviors less often than nonconsumptive-only recreationists (i.e., birders and/or wildlife viewers) and recreationists with both consumptive and nonconsumptive identities were less likely to support a state fish and wildlife agency in the future. Our findings underscore the importance of all types of wildlife recreationists, especially those with intersecting identities, as state fish and wildlife agencies work to advance conservation. Hence, developing multi-faceted engagement strategies may enhance support for state fish and wildlife agencies among their growing wildlife recreation constituency.

Virginia↗

Flood-inundation maps for a nine-mile reach of the Des Plaines River from Riverwoods to Mettawa, Illinois

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9-mile reach of the Des Plaines River from Riverwoods to Mettawa, Illinois, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Lake County Stormwater Management Commission and the Villages of Lincolnshire and Riverwoods. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (gage heights) at the USGS streamgage at Des Plaines River at Lincolnshire, Illinois (station no. 05528100). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?05528100 . In addition, this streamgage is incorporated into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ ) by the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. The NWS forecasted peak-stage information, also shown on the Des Plaines River at Lincolnshire inundation Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was then used to determine seven water-surface profiles for flood stages at roughly 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System (GIS) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (derived from Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. These maps, along with information on the Internet regarding current gage height from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Illinois↗

Flood-inundation maps for White River at Petersburg, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 7.7-mile reach of the White River at Petersburg, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at White River at Petersburg, Ind. (03374000). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (PTRI3). Flood profiles were computed for the White River at Petersburg reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at the White River at Petersburg, Ind., and the White River above Petersburg, Ind. (03373890), gages. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to compute 18 water-surface profiles for flood stages at approximately 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at White River at Petersburg, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

Flood-inundation maps for the Schoharie Creek at Prattsville, New York, 2014

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 2.6-mile reach of the Schoharie Creek at Prattsville, New York, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Schoharie Creek at Prattsville (station number 01350000). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained online from the USGS National Water Information System ( http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ ) or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ ), which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. National Weather Service-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas and depths of flood inundation. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the stage-discharge relation (rating 82.0) at the Schoharie Creek at Prattsville streamgage (station 01350000) and high-water marks from the flood of August 28, 2011. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 17 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to greater than the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.61-foot vertical root-mean squared error and 6.6-foot horizontal resolution, in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. These flood-inundation maps, along with near-real-time stage data from USGS streamgages and forecasted stage data from the National Weather Service, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

New York↗

Natural resource management decision-making under climate uncertainty: Building social-ecological resilience in southwestern Colorado

The goal of this project was to facilitate climate change adaptation that contributes to social-ecological resilience, ecosystem and species conservation, and sustainable human communities in southwestern Colorado. The team developed and piloted integrated adaptation planning tools and principles that merge the strengths of the iterative scenario process, the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning framework, institutional analysis, and climate modeling. These tools and principles generated practical strategies and scientific knowledge to advance climate change adaptation in both the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin and, potentially, other landscapes. A key objective of this project was to work with decision-makers to develop social-ecological adaptation strategies and coordinate actions to reduce the impacts of a changing climate on nature and people. To accomplish this, the project blended science (biophysical and social) and participatory approaches to integrate expert knowledge, land management decision making, and local needs. These adaptation strategies and their creation process were documented by the project team to assist communities and scientists elsewhere who are grappling with the challenges posed by climate change.

Colorado↗

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗

EAARL-B submerged topography: Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, post-Hurricane Sandy, 2012-2013

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived submerged topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, Florida. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets for part of Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, acquired post-Hurricane Sandy on November 1, 5, 16, 20, and 30, 2012; December 5, 6, and 21, 2012; and January 10, 2013. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar system, known as the second-generation Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL-B), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL-B system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nm) lidar designed to map nearshore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL-B sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) and infrared (IR) digital cameras, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL-B platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL-B system. The resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed originally in a NASA-USGS collaboration. The exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode is supported using ALPS. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. The Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS) is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the "bare earth" under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Lidar for Science and Resource Management Web site .

New Jersey↗

Evaluation of candidate Landsat Data Gap Sensors

The capabilities of the currently operational Landsat satellites may be lost before the launch of the follow-on Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM), thus producing a gap in the Landsat data record and the National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data Archive (NSLRSDA). In anticipation of a gap, the Federal agencies responsible for Landsat program management, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Interior (DOI) U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), convened a Landsat Data Gap Study Team (LDGST). The study team assessed the basic characteristics of multiple systems and identified sensors aboard the China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS-2) and the Indian Remote Sensing (IRS-P6) ResourceSat-1 satellite as the most promising sources of Landsat-like data. The sensors include the combination of CBERS-2 Infrared Multi-spectral Scanner (IRMSS) and High Resolution Charged Coupled Device (CCD), as well as the IRS-P6 Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) and the IRS-P6 Linear Imaging Self Scanning Sensor (LISS-III). The study team concluded that more robust technical evaluations of data and sensor performance are required before gap mitigation strategies can be fully formulated. A technical report is made available that summarizes the results from those evaluations, including the initial data characterization and science utility evaluation. The report can be accessed at http://calval.cr.usgs.gov/LDGST.php.

Conference Paper↗

Metal stable isotopes in low-temperature systems: A primer

Recent advances in mass spectrometry have allowed isotope scientists to precisely determine stable isotope variations in the metallic elements. Biologically infl uenced and truly inorganic isotope fractionation processes have been demonstrated over the mass range of metals. This Elements issue provides an overview of the application of metal stable isotopes to low-temperature systems, which extend across the borders of several science disciplines: geology, hydrology, biology, environmental science, and biomedicine. Information on instrumentation, fractionation processes, data-reporting terminology, and reference materials presented here will help the reader to better understand this rapidly evolving field.

Elements↗

Supporting natural resource-management decisions — The role of economics at the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) — 2018 DOI Economics Training Workshop

The second U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Economics Training Workshop (hereafter “Workshop”) was held during September 25–27, 2018, in Washington, D.C., to identify, highlight, and better understand needs and opportunities for economic analysis to support DOI’s mission. Building on the first workshop in 2017, the second Workshop, jointly convened by the DOI Office of Policy Analysis and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science and Decisions Center, provided an opportunity for DOI economists to share expertise and experiences and to build collaboration and communication channels across DOI. In addition, the second Workshop provided training sessions on a variety of relevant economic and modeling topics. More than 40 DOI economists gathered at the Workshop to share their work, discuss shared challenges, and identify approaches to advance the use and contribution of economics at the DOI.

Open-File Report↗

Flood-inundation maps for the White River at Noblesville, Indiana

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 7.5-mile reach of the White River at Noblesville, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the White River at Noblesville, Ind., streamgage (USGS station number 03349000). Real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at the same site as the USGS streamgage (NWS site NBLI3). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional, step-backwater hydraulic modeling software developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated using the current (2016) stage-discharge rating at the USGS streamgage 03349000, White River at Noblesville, Ind., and documented high-water marks from the floods of September 4, 2003, and May 6, 2017. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 15 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum ranging from 10.0 ft (the NWS “action stage”) to 24.0 ft, which is the highest stage interval of the current (2016) USGS stage-discharge rating curve and 2 ft higher than the NWS “major flood stage.” The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.98-ft vertical accuracy and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana↗

EAARL Coastal Topography-Maryland and Delaware, Post-Nor'Ida, 2009

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived bare-earth (BE) and first-surface (FS) topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the eastern Maryland and Delaware coastline beachface, acquired post-Nor'Ida (November 2009 nor'easter) on November 28 and 30, 2009. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multispectral color-infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine aircraft, but the instrument was deployed on a Pilatus PC-6. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Decision Support for Coastal Science and Management website.

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