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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Skagit River coho salmon life history model—Users’ guide

Natural resource management is conducted in the context of multiple anthropogenic stressors and is further challenged owing to changing climate. Experiments to determine the effects of climate change on complex ecological systems are nearly impossible. However, using a simulation model to synthesize current understanding of key ecological processes through the life cycle of a fish population can provide a platform for exploring potential effects of and management responses to changing conditions. Potential climate-change scenarios can be imposed, responses can be observed, and the effectiveness of potential actions can be evaluated. This approach is limited owing to future conditions likely deviating in range and timing from conditions used to create the model so that the model is expected to become obsolete. In the meantime, however, the modeling process explicitly states assumptions, clarifies information gaps, and provides a means to better understand which relationships are robust and which are vulnerable to changing climate by observing whether and why model output diverges from actual observations through time. The purpose of the model described herein is to provide such a decision-support tool regarding coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) salmon for the Sauk-Suiattle Indian Tribe of Washington State. The Skagit coho salmon model is implemented in a system dynamics format and has three primary stocks—(1) predicted smolts, (2) realized smolts, and (3) escapement. “Predicted smolts” are the number of smolts expected based on the number of spawners in any year and the Ricker production curve. Pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha ) return to the Skagit River in odd years, and when they overlap with juvenile rearing coho salmon, coho smolt production is substantially higher than in non-pink years. Therefore, the model uses alternative Ricker equations to predict smolts depending on whether their juvenile year was a pink or non-pink year. The stock “realized smolts” is calculated based on the expected effect of streamflow conditions to alter the productivity predicted by the Ricker curve. Adverse conditions include scouring flow events that occur when redds are present; high-flow events during winter on juveniles, which can cause fish displacement and adverse water turbidity; and extremely low flows in summer. The stock “escapement” represents the fish remaining after accounting for ocean mortality and harvest. Ocean mortality has been linked with indices of ocean conditions, which are related to ocean biological productivity. Ocean survival also may have a density-dependent component such that lower survival is associated with higher numbers of smolts. The model allows the user to change certain model parameters and inputs, and choose among alternative predictors for certain modeled relations.

Washington↗
USGS1997

Evaluation of the U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Data-Collection Program in Hawaii, 1992

In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey ground-water data-collection program in the State of Hawaii consisted of 188 wells distributed among the islands of Oahu, Kauai, Maui, Molokai, and Hawaii. Water-level and water-quality (temperature, specific conductance, and chloride concentration) data were collected from observation wells, deep monitoring wells that penetrate the zone of transition between freshwater and saltwater, free-flowing wells, and pumped wells. The objective of the program was to collect sufficient spatial and temporal data to define seasonal and long-term changes in ground-water levels and chloride concentrations induced by natural and human-made stresses for different climatic and hydrogeologic settings. Wells needed to meet this objective can be divided into two types of networks: (1) a water-management network to determine the response of ground-water flow systems to human-induced stresses, such as pumpage, and (2) a baseline network to determine the response of ground-water flow systems to natural stresses for different climatic and hydrogeologic settings. Maps showing the distribution and magnitude of pumpage and the distribution of proposed pumped wells are presented to identify areas in need of water-management networks. Wells in the 1992 U.S. Geological Survey ground-water data-collection program were classified as either water-management or baseline network wells. In addition, locations where additional water-management network wells are needed for water-level and water-quality data were identified.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2014

Sources of global climate data and visualization portals

Climate is integral to the geophysical foundation upon which ecosystems are structured. Knowledge about mechanistic linkages between the geophysical and biological environments is essential for understanding how global warming may reshape contemporary ecosystems and ecosystem services. Numerous global data sources spanning several decades are available that document key geophysical metrics such as temperature and precipitation, and metrics of primary biological production such as vegetation phenology and ocean phytoplankton. This paper provides an internet directory to portals for visualizing or servers for downloading many of the more commonly used global datasets, as well as a description of how to write simple computer code to efficiently retrieve these data. The data are broadly useful for quantifying relationships between climate, habitat availability, and lower-trophic-level habitat quality - especially in Arctic regions where strong seasonality is accompanied by intrinsically high year-to-year variability. If defensible linkages between the geophysical (climate) and the biological environment can be established, general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate conditions can be used to infer future biological responses. Robustness of this approach is, however, complicated by the number of direct, indirect, or interacting linkages involved. For example, response of a predator species to climate change will be influenced by the responses of its prey and competitors, and so forth throughout a trophic web. The complexities of ecological systems warrant sensible and parsimonious approaches for assessing and establishing the role of natural climate variability in order to substantiate inferences about the potential effects of global warming.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1957

Water problems in the present trend towards greater aridity

In the past few days we have heard a number of scientists, gathered here at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, discuss research work which, in one manner or another, bears on problems related to water resources. They have been discussing, particularly, problems in the field of climatology, and have speculated on the meaning of the results of this research. One of the problems under discussion was the nature, and possible cause, of the climatic fluctuation which we have experienced in recent decades, and its relation to climatic changes in recent geologic time since the last glaciation. These discussions have given me the courage, or perhaps the recklessness, to indulge in some speculation relative to various aspects of water resource problems in the United States.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1985

Cyclic variations in calcium carbonate and organic carbon in Miocene to Holocene sediments, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic Ocean

The entire upper Miocene to Holocene sedimentary sequence recovered in a hydraulic piston core at DSDP Site 532 on Walvis Ridge shows distinct cycles in amount of CaCO sub(3) that correlate with dark and light cycles of sediment color. The average periodicities of the carbonate cycles for the Quaternary, upper Pliocene, and lower Pliocene are about 35, 46, and 28 ky, respectively, with an overall average of about 36 ky for the last 5 my. Most minima in carbonate abundance correspond to dark parts of the color cycles, and most maxmia in carbonate abundance correspond to dark parts of color cycles, The darker parts of the color cycle usually contain higher concentrations of organic carbon, but organic carbon does not follow the color cycles in detail. Organic carbon cycles were analyzed only for the last 2.5 my, and for this interval they have an average periodicity of about 34 ky. The carbonate and color cycles persist through more than 5my during which major changes in relative proportions of siliceous-biogenic, calcareous- biogenic and terrigenous- clastic components occurent in response to climate change and to the waxing and waning of the Benguela Current upwelling systems off southwest Africa. The cyclic nature of these sediments probably is the result of dilution by terrigrnous clastic material and not dissolution of carbonate. We believe that the forcing mechanisms that produced the cycliclity was external to the area of site 532. Because of the similarity among the periodicities of the Walvis Ridge cycles and those of carbonate cycles in the northeastern Atlantic, Caribbean and eastern equatorial Pacific, these cycles probably are responses to global events. We conclude that fluctuations om global sea level with an average period of about 36 ky during the last 5 my caused variations in influx of terrigenous clastic materials from the Africans continental margin

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

GeoImageNet: A multi-source natural feature benchmark dataset for GeoAI and supervised machine learning

The field of GeoAI or Geospatial Artificial Intelligence has undergone rapid development since 2017. It has been widely applied to address environmental and social science problems, from understanding climate change to tracking the spread of infectious disease. A foundational task in advancing GeoAI research is the creation of open, benchmark datasets to train and evaluate the performance of GeoAI models. While a number of datasets have been published, very few have centered on the natural terrain and its landforms. To bridge this gulf, this paper introduces a first-of-its-kind benchmark dataset, GeoImageNet, which supports natural feature detection in a supervised machine-learning paradigm. A distinctive feature of this dataset is the fusion of multi-source data, including both remote sensing imagery and DEM in depicting spatial objects of interest. This multi-source dataset allows a GeoAI model to extract rich spatio-contextual information to gain stronger confidence in high-precision object detection and recognition. The image dataset is tested with a multi-source GeoAI extension against two well-known object detection models, Faster-RCNN and RetinaNet. The results demonstrate the robustness of the dataset in aiding GeoAI models to achieve convergence and the superiority of multi-source data in yielding much higher prediction accuracy than the commonly used single data source.

GeoInformatica↗
USGS2016

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2013

An opportunity and an imperative: Chapter 11 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Along the nearly 3,200 kilometers (almost 2,000 miles) of the United States–Mexican border, we are witnessing the expression of the challenges of the 21st century. The Borderlands have become a microcosm for the entire United States and Mexico; the issues faced in that region are felt throughout both nations—water availability and quality, ecosystem health, natural resource needs, safety from natural hazards, and human socioeconomic well-being. If these issues were not challenging enough, we now recognize that the difficulties of addressing them are exacerbated by the onset of climate change, and as we come to better understand the complexities of the components of these challenge themes, we discover that each part is inextricably intertwined with other overarching issues. Further, because we are a creative and progressive society, we all seek to understand and appreciate the natural environments associated with the Borderlands while at the same time benefitting from the region’s many social and economic values. It is little wonder that we as a society find it increasingly difficult to ask the right questions, much less find suitable answers to the questions we do ask. For the many scientists who have worked in the Borderlands and contributed to the preceding chapters, this circular is a way to describe to the two nations of the region the capabilities the U.S. Geological Survey can provide to assist in that quest for knowledge and understanding in preparation for the future.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗
USGS2011

Understanding risk and resilience to natural hazards

Natural hazards threaten the safety and economic wellbeing of communities. These hazards include sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes, and slowly emerging, chronic hazards, such as those associated with climate change. To help public officials, emergency and other managers, the business community, and at-risk individuals reduce the risks posed by such hazards, the USGS Western Geographic Science Center is developing new ways to assess and communicate societal risk and resilience to catastrophic and chronic natural hazards.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet Endangered status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2011

Diel biogeochemical processes and their effect on the aqueous chemistry of streams: A review

This review summarizes biogeochemical processes that operate on diel, or 24-h, time scales in streams and the changes in aqueous chemistry that are associated with these processes. Some biogeochemical processes, such as those producing diel cycles of dissolved O 2 and pH, were the first to be studied, whereas processes producing diel concentration cycles of a broader spectrum of chemical species including dissolved gases, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, trace elements, nutrients, stable isotopes, and suspended particles have received attention only more recently. Diel biogeochemical cycles are interrelated because the cyclical variations produced by one biogeochemical process commonly affect another. Thus, understanding biogeochemical cycling is essential not only for guiding collection and interpretation of water-quality data but also for geochemical and ecological studies of streams. Expanded knowledge of diel biogeochemical cycling will improve understanding of how natural aquatic environments function and thus lead to better predictions of how stream ecosystems might react to changing conditions of contaminant loading, eutrophication, climate change, drought, industrialization, development, and other factors.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2024

The interplay of future solar energy, land cover change, and their projected impacts on natural lands and croplands in the US

Projections for deep decarbonization require large amounts of solar energy, which may compete with other land uses such as agriculture, urbanization, and conservation of natural lands. Existing capacity expansion models do not integrate land use land cover change (LULC) dynamics into projections. We explored the interaction between projected LULC, solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment, and solar impacts on natural lands and croplands by integrating projections of LULC with a model that can project future deployment of solar PV with high spatial resolution for the conterminous United States. We used scenarios of LULC projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios from 2010 to 2050 and two electricity grid scenarios to model future PV deployment and compared those results against a baseline that held 2010 land cover constant through 2050. Though solar PV's overall technical potential was minimally impacted by LULC scenarios, deployed PV varied by −16.5 to 11.6 % in 2050 from the baseline scenario. Total land requirements for projected PV were similar to other studies, but measures of PV impacts on natural systems depended on the underlying land change dynamics occurring in a scenario. The solar PV deployed through 2050 resulted in 1.1 %–2.4 % of croplands and 0.3 %–0.7 % of natural lands being converted to PV. However, the deepest understanding of PV impacts and interactions with land cover emerged when the complete net gains and losses from all land cover change dynamics, including PV, were integrated. For example, one of the four LULC projections allows for high solar development and a net gain in natural lands, even though PV drives a larger percentage of natural land conversion. This paper shows that integrating land cover change dynamics with energy expansion models generates new insights into trade offs between decarbonization, impacts of renewables, and ongoing land cover change.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2014

Strategic conservation planning for the Eastern North Carolina/Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation Team

The Eastern North Carolina/Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation Team (ENCSEVA) is a partnership among local federal agencies and programs with a mission to apply Strategic Habitat Conservation to accomplish priority landscape-level conservation within its geographic region. ENCSEVA seeks to further landscape-scale conservation through collaboration with local partners. To accomplish this mission, ENCSEVA is developing a comprehensive Strategic Habitat Conservation Plan (Plan) to provide guidance for its members, partners, and collaborators by establishing mutual conservation goals, objectives, strategies, and metrics to gauge the success of conservation efforts. Identifying common goals allows the ENCSEVA team to develop strategies that leverage joint resources and are more likely to achieve desired impacts across the landscape. The Plan will also provide an approach for ENCSEVA to meet applied research needs (identify knowledge gaps), foster adaptive management principles, identify conservation priorities, prioritize threats (including potential impacts of climate change), and identify the required capacity to implement strategies to create more resilient landscapes. ENCSEVA seeks to support the overarching goals of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SALCC) and to provide scientific and technical support for conservation at landscape scales as well as inform the management of natural resources in response to shifts in climate, habitat fragmentation and loss, and other landscape-level challenges (South Atlantic LCC 2012). The ENCSEVA ecoregion encompasses the northern third of the SALCC geography and offers a unique opportunity to apply landscape conservation at multiple scales through the guidance of local conservation and natural resource management efforts and by reporting metrics that reflect the effectiveness of those efforts (Figure 1). The Environmental Decision Analysis Team, housed within the North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at North Carolina State University, is assisting the ENCSEVA team in developing a scientifically sound basis for the Plan though the elicitation of expert knowledge and the organization of that knowledge using the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation. The Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation is a framework that is well suited to incorporating decision-making tools such as Structured Decision Making and provides a multi-step process to conceptually organize conservation projects in a manner that enhances the rigor and transparency of expert and knowledge-based plans. It helps define explicit pathways from 2 planned conservation activities and ultimate impact, as well as indicators to measure success (Stem et al. 2005). Specifically, the framework identifies conservation targets, key ecological attributes, threats, and associated indicators to monitor responses given the implementation of a conservation action (Conservation Measures Partnership 2007). This report serves to provide a scientific foundation for the Plan by summarizing the expert opinion of wildlife biologists, ecologists, hydrologists, researchers, natural resource managers, and conservation practitioners regarding five environments (wetlands, riverine systems, estuaries, uplands, and barrier islands) within the ENCSEVA geography. Specifically, this report describes (1) the approach to elicit expert knowledge meant to support the strategic plan, (2) how this knowledge can inform collaborative conservation planning, and (3) a summary of opportunities available for the ENCSEVA team to address threats and impacts associated with climate change within the ecoregion.

Technical Bulletin↗
USGS2015

The Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment: Mangrove, Tidal Emergent Marsh, Barrier Islands, and Oyster Reef

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both the species and habitat assessments. Many of the assessors who focused on species also identified data gaps regarding genetic information, phenotypic plasticity, life history, and species responses to past climate change and sea level rise. Regardless of information gaps, the results from the GCVA can be used to inform Gulf-wide adaptation plans. Given the scale of climatic impacts, coordinated efforts to address Gulf-wide threats to species and ecosystems will enhance the effectiveness of management actions and also have the potential to maximize the efficacy of limited funding.

Report↗
USGS2017

Gulf Coast vulnerability assessment: Mangrove, tidal emergent marsh, barrier islands and oyster reef

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates exposure and sensitivity to threats (potential impact), coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both the species and habitat assessments. Many of the assessors who focused on species also identified data gaps regarding genetic information, phenotypic plasticity, life history, and species responses to past climate change and sea level rise. Regardless of information gaps, the results from the GCVA can be used to inform Gulf-wide adaptation plans. Given the scale of climatic impacts, coordinated efforts to address Gulf-wide threats to species and ecosystems will enhance the effectiveness of management actions and also have the potential to maximize the efficacy of limited funding.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2009

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2011

Evolution of natural history information in the 21st century – developing an integrated framework for biological and geographical data

Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuarine scale to invasive species and climate change at regional and global scales. To help address research questions across these scales, we provide here a standardized framework for a biogeographical information system containing queriable biological data that allows extraction of information on multiple species, across a variety of spatial scales based on species distributions, natural history attributes and habitat requirements. As scientists shift from research on localized impacts on individual species to regional and global scale threats, macroecological approaches of studying multiple species over broad geographical areas are becoming increasingly important. The standardized framework described here for capturing and integrating biological and geographical data is a critical first step towards addressing these macroecological questions and we urge organizations capturing biogeoinformatics data to consider adopting this framework.

Journal of Biogeography↗