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USGS2003

Preparing for climate change: The potential consequences of climate variability and change

Over the past decades, scientific research has greatly advanced the knowledge and understanding of global environmental change. Research supported by the U. S. Global Change Research Programme (USGCRP) and research and assessment results by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), and the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP) have demonstrated that human activities exert powerful environmental influences on global, regional, and local scales. Recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1997) indicate that human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (NO x ), methane (CH 4 ), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS), partially halogenated fluorocarbons, and ozone (O 3 ), which alter radiative balances, and tend to warm the Earth’s surface. These changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols constitute key factors in global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables, resulting in local and regional changes in soil moisture, an increase in global mean sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high temperature events, floods, and droughts in some places. In the United States and elsewhere in the industrialized world, energy use contributes to global warming more than any other human activity. This is because most of our energy comes from carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuels provide energy for a variety of purposes, including transporting goods and people, manufacturing products, heating and cooling buildings, lighting spaces, and cooking foods. Each year U.S. energy use releases more than 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Present global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are 130% of pre-industrial levels (Figure 1). The global surface temperature last century is warmer than any other century in the past millennium. The global average temperature has increased by about 1 o F over the last century and is projected to rise another 2-6.5 o F by year 2100 (Figure 2). The last two decades have been the warmest last century. Average global sea level has risen about 4 to 10 inches in the last hundred years, and is projected to rise another 6-38 inches by year 2100. Mid- and low- latitude mountain glaciers have retreated world-wide last century. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, it is expected that an increase in rainfall amount and consequent increase in river flooding will occur. Recent floods in the Gulf Coast areas (1993, 1997) are examples of such events, and perhaps indicate the high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. Because of its unique location adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast region of the United States is particularly vulnerable to various environmental alterations resulting from climate change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2019

Impacts to wildlife of wind energy siting and operation in the United States

Electricity from wind energy is a major contributor to the strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use and thus reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Wind energy, like all power sources, can have adverse impacts on wildlife. After nearly 25 years of focused research, these impacts are much better understood, although uncertainty remains. In this report, we summarize positive impacts of replacing fossil fuels with wind energy, while describing what we have learned and what remains uncertain about negative ecological impacts of the construction and operation of land-based and offshore wind energy on wildlife and wildlife habitat in the U.S. Finally, we propose research on ways to minimize these impacts. TO SUMMARIZE: 1 Environmental and other benefits of wind energy include near-zero greenhouse gas emissions, reductions of other common air pollutants, and little or no water use associated with producing electricity from wind energy. Various scenarios for meeting U.S. carbon emission reduction goals indicate that a four- to five-fold expansion of land-based wind energy from the current 97 gigawatts (GW) by the year 2050 is needed to minimize temperature increases and reduce the risk of climate change to people and wildlife. 2 Collision fatalities of birds and bats are the most visible and measurable impacts of wind energy production. Current estimates suggest most bird species, especially songbirds, are at low risk of population-level impacts. Raptors as a group appear more vulnerable to collisions. Population-level impacts on migratory tree bats are a concern, and better information on population sizes is needed to evaluate potential impacts to these species. Although recorded fatalities of cave-dwelling bat species are typically low at most wind energy facilities, additional mortality from collisions is a concern given major declines in these species due to white-nose syndrome (WNS). Assessments of regional and cumulative fatality impacts for birds and bats have been hampered by the lack of data from areas with a high proportion of the nation’s installed wind energy capacity. Efforts to expand data accessibility from all regions are underway, and this greater access to data along with improvements in statistical estimators should lead to improved impact assessments. 3 Habitat impacts of wind energy development are difficult to assess. An individual wind energy facility may encompass thousands of acres, but only a small percentage of the landscape within the project area is directly transformed. If a project is sited in previously undisturbed habitat, there is concern for indirect impacts, such as displacement of sensitive species. Studies to date indicate displacement of some species, but the long-term population impacts are unknown. 4 Offshore wind energy development in the U.S. is just beginning. Studies at offshore wind facilities in Europe indicate some bird and marine mammal species are displaced from project areas, but substantial uncertainty exists regarding the individual or population-level impacts of this displacement. Bird and bat collisions with offshore turbines are thought to be less common than at terrestrial facilities, but currently the tools to measure fatalities at offshore wind energy facilities are not available. The wind energy industry, state and federal agencies, conservation groups, academia, and scientific organizations have collaborated for nearly 25 years to conduct the research needed to improve our understanding of risk to wildlife and to avoid and minimize that risk. Efforts to reduce the uncertainty about wildlife risk must keep up withthe pace and scale of the need to reduce carbon emissions. This will require focusing our research priorities and increasing the rate at which we incorporate research results into the development and validation of best practices for siting and operating wind energy facilities.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS1976

Uranium resource assessment in the United States

Uranium is a ubiquitous element-- a little is found in nearly every natural occurring materials, and it is concentrated in many different geologic environments. Thus, uranium differs markedly from the fossil fuels both in its occurrence and how its resources can be assessed. On the one hand uranium behaves like other metals in its occurrences. On the other hand, as a fuel it is like the hydrocarbons in that it is a non-recyclable resources. In addition, uranium occurs in two isotopes that potential may supply energy-- U235 and U238. Present only 0.7% of natural uranium. New technology is being developed to utilize the more abundant isotope U238. Consequently, the U238 obtained from uranium ores that have already been mined and processed (which is now stockpiled) is a resource that may be used in the future.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Fire, forests and city water supply

Forest landscapes generate 57 percent of runoff worldwide and supply water to more than 4 billion people (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). As the world population continues to increase, there is a strong need to understand how forest processes link together in a cascade to provide people with water services like hydropower, aquaculture, drinking water and flood protection (Carvalho-Santos, Honrado and Hein, 2014). Wildfire is a major disturbance affecting forested watersheds and the water they provide (Box 1) (Paton et al., 2015). Several regions have experienced shifts in wildfires from natural ignition sources (primarily lightning) to ignitions dominated by human activities, especially in areas where populations are increasing (Moritz et al., 2014; Balch et al., 2017). Occasional wildfire is essential for the health and functioning of fire-adapted ecosystems through its effects on nutrient cycling, plant diversity and succession, and pest regulation (Pausas and Keeley, 2019). It also reduces the risk of subsequent wildfires until a forest has accumulated sufficient fuels and conditions are conducive for another fire. Extreme and hazardous wildfires, on the other hand, can cause erosion, gullying, soil loss and flooding – and, in severe cases, even debris flows and flash floods – by removing the protective functions of forests on hillsides (Ebel and Moody, 2017). Extreme wildfires have become more common after decades of fire suppression, allowing forests to become much denser with vegetation and causing more fuels to build up over time. Combined with increasing summer drought, this can have impacts on water yield and the ability of upstream forests to deliver high-quality water because forest vegetation uses less water immediately after fire and, in environments influenced by snow, more snow can accumulate in forest clearings (Kinoshita and Hogue, 2015; Hallema et al., 2019). Therefore, accounting for wildfire impacts on forests in water planning has become a priority for the nexus of fire, water and society or, in other words, the connection between fire risk and water security (Figure 1) (Martin, 2016). In this article, we discuss managed forest landscapes as nature-based solutions for water and explore how fire affects the provision of water-related services.

Unasylva↗

USGS2002

Application of decision-tree techniques to forest group and basal area mapping using satellite imagery and forest inventory data

Accurate, current, and cost-effective fire fuel data are required by management and fire science communities for use in reducing wildland fire hazards over large areas. In this paper we present results of applying decision-tree techniques to mapping vegetation parameters (such as vegetation types and canopy structure classification) required for fire fuel characterization. Specifically, we present preliminary results of mapping forest types and average basal area by different forest types at 30-meter resolution. Input data into the decision tree model included Landsat-7 ETM+ spring, summer and fall greenness, brightness and wetness of the tasseled cap transformation, topographic data layers such as slope and elevation, and forest variables measured on inventory plots in the Mid-Atlantic region. Using decision-tree models, eight forest types were successfully identified in training cases and mapped for the entire mapping area. Forest basal area per unit area (conifer and deciduous) was estimated as well using regression tree models. Cross-validation conducted for both forest types and basal area showed that discrete forest type estimation error was 35% and continuous basal area relative errors were between 58 and 72%. Accuracy was higher in homogeneous forested lands and lower in areas with fragmented forest cover. The study demonstrated that decision tree and regression tree methods are efficient for large-area vegetation mapping if sufficient large-amount of reference data are available.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2006

Mapping existing vegetation composition and structure for the LANDFIRE Prototype Project

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Prototype Project, or LANDFIRE Prototype Project, required the mapping of existing vegetation composition (cover type) and structural stages at a 30-m spatial resolution to provide baseline vegetation data for the development of wildland fuel maps and for comparison to simulated historical vegetation reference conditions to develop indices of ecological departure. For the LANDFIRE Prototype Project, research was conducted to develop a vegetation mapping methodology that could meet the following general requirements: Cover types (species composition) must be characterized at a scale suitable for subsequent mapping of wildland fuel and fire regime condition class (FRCC). The vegetation map unit classification used for mapping cover types must be based on existing national systems, such as the United States National Vegetation Classification System (NVCS; Grossman and others 1998). The alliance (a community with multiple dominant species) or association (a community with a single dominant species) levels of this standard must provide a clearly defined list of map units that can be used as a basis for mapping vegetation classes that are both scaleable and representative of suitable units for modeling historical fire regimes (see Long and others, Ch. 6 for details on the LANDFIRE vegetation map units). The mapping of existing vegetation structure must be based on the relative composition of forest, shrub, and herbaceous canopy cover and average forest, shrub, and herbaceous canopy height. Although structural stages are discrete map units describing unique combinations of canopy cover and canopy height by life form, mapping individual canopy cover and height variables as continuous variables is desired to provide additional information for mapping and modeling vegetation and flexibility for setting threshold values.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2002

Strategic plan for the Coordinated Intermountain Restoration Project

In 1982, the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) Idaho State Office began the Intermountain Greenstripping and Rehabilitation Research Project (IGRRP), or the “Greenstripping Program,” to investigate plant materials and technologies that can reduce wildfire incidence and improve rehabilitation practices. Rehabilitation is normally applied as a reactive process to wildfires, yet land managers in the Great Basin wish to become proactive by replacing fire-prone invasive annual grasses with native plants. The Coordinated Intermountain Restoration Project (CIRP) evolved from the Greenstripping Program to conduct research studies and provide technical assistance on restoration of native ecosystems on rangelands that are infested with invasive annual grasses or other invasive or noxious weeds. To accomplish this objective, the CIRP will promote the understanding of ecosystem disturbance dynamics as well as evaluate plant materials, site preparation techniques, weed control methods, seeding equipment, management methods, and monitoring techniques for restoration projects. The CIRP will not address the restoration of forested or woodland (juniper [Juniperus]) ecosystems. It will include a component on fuel management to reduce the impacts of wildfires on semiarid rangeland ecosystems where exotic annual grasses provide the fuel. The people who will benefit directly from this research include land managers and users of public and private lands in the northern Great Basin, the Columbia Plateau, and the Snake River Plain. The CIRP will provide an integration framework for a multidisciplinary approach to research with numerous opportunities for input and collaboration. The U.S. Geological Survey will initially dedicate approximately \$1 million over 5 years (about \$200,000 per year) to jump-start this effort. U.S. Geological Survey funds will establish a science advisory board to oversee the project. This board will contain members of Federal research and management agencies within the region. U.S. Geological Survey funds will support (1) continued development of VegSpec, a computer program that is a restoration expert system, (2) research to examine changes in ecosystem processes when native plant-dominated communities shift to communities dominated by exotic annual grasses, and (3) research to address mechanisms for establishing native plants in locations dominated by exotic annual grasses. Through these initial funds, USGS hopes to leverage additional research with other agencies (e.g., BLM’s Great Basin Restoration Initiative or the Native Plant Materials Development Project, which is an interagency program to supply and manage native plant materials for restoration and rehabilitation on Federal lands) or funding organizations (e.g., the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s [USDA] National Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program, or the USDA’s and U.S. Department of the Interior’s [USDOI] Joint Fire Science Program), and to obtain additional research partners (e.g., university or Federal scientists) willing to expand this effort to address all aspects of this strategic plan.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2010

Analysis of solvent dyes in refined petroleum products by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry

Solvent dyes are used to color refined petroleum products to enable differentiation between gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels. Analysis for these dyes in the hydrocarbon product is difficult due to their very low concentrations in such a complex matrix. Flow injection analysis/electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry in both negative and positive mode was used to optimize ionization of ten typical solvent dyes. Samples of hydrocarbon product were analyzed under similar conditions. Positive electrospray ionization produced very complex spectra, which were not suitably specific for targeting only the dyes. Negative electrospray ionization produced simple spectra because aliphatic and aromatic moieties were not ionized. This enabled screening for a target dye in samples of hydrocarbon product from a spill.

Fuel↗

USGS2013

Fungal degradation of coal as a pretreatment for methane production

Coal conversion technologies can help in taking advantage of huge low rank coal reserves by converting those into alternative fuels like methane. In this regard, fungal degradation of coal can serve as a pretreatment step in order to make coal a suitable substrate for biological beneficiation. A fungal isolate MW1, identified as Penicillium chrysogenum on the basis of fungal ITS sequences, was isolated from a core sample of coal, taken from a well drilled by the US. Geological Survey in Montana, USA. The low rank coal samples, from major coal fields of Pakistan, were treated with MW1 for 7 days in the presence of 0.1% ammonium sulfate as nitrogen source and 0.1% glucose as a supplemental carbon source. Liquid extracts were analyzed through Excitation–Emission Matrix Spectroscopy (EEMS) to obtain qualitative estimates of solubilized coal; these analyses indicated the release of complex organic functionalities. In addition, GC–MS analysis of these extracts confirmed the presence of single ring aromatics, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), aromatic nitrogen compounds and aliphatics. Subsequently, the released organics were subjected to a bioassay for the generation of methane which conferred the potential application of fungal degradation as pretreatment. Additionally, fungal-mediated degradation was also prospected for extracting some other chemical entities like humic acids from brown coals with high huminite content especially from Thar, the largest lignite reserve of Pakistan.

Sindh Province↗

USGS2005

An approach toward a combined scheme for the petrographic classification of fly ash: Revision and clarification

Hower and Mastalerz's classification scheme for fly ash is modified to make more widely acceptable. First, proper consideration is given to the potential role of anthracite in the development of isotropic and anisotropic chars. Second, the role of low-reflectance inertinite in producing vesicular chars is noted. It is shown that noncoal chars in the fuel can potentially produce chars that have the potential to stretch the limits of the classification. With care, it is possible to classify certain biomass chars as being distinct from coal-derived chars.

Energy and Fuels↗

USGS1998

Reprocessing and reuse of waste tire rubber to solve air-quality related problems

There is a potential for using waste tire rubber to make activated-carbon adsorbents for air-quality control applications. Such an approach provides a recycling path for waste tires and the production of new adsorbents from a low-cost waste material. Tire-derived activated carbons (TDACs) were prepared from waste tires. The resulting products are generally mesoporous, with N2-BET specific surface areas ranging from 239 to 1031 m2/g. TDACs were tested for their ability to store natural gas and remove organic compounds and mercury species from gas streams. TDACs are able to achieve 36% of the recommended adsorbed natural gas (methane) storage capacity for natural-gas-fueled vehicles. Equilibrium adsorption capacities for CH4 achieved by TDACs are comparable to Calgon BPL, a commercially available activated-carbon adsorbent. The acetone adsorption capacity for a TDAC is 67% of the adsorption capacity achieved by BPL at 1 vol % acetone. Adsorption capacities of mercury in simulated flue-gas streams are, in general, larger than adsorption capacities achieved by coal-derived activated carbons (CDACs) and BPL. Although TDACs may not perform as well as commercial adsorbents in some air pollution control applications, the potential lower cost of TDACS should be considered when evaluating economics.

Energy and Fuels↗

USGS1999

Intra- and inter-unit variation in fly ash petrography and mercury adsorption: Examples from a western Kentucky power station

Fly ash was collected from eight mechanical and 10 baghouse hoppers at each of the twin 150-MW wall-fired units in a western Kentucky power station. The fuel burned at that time was a blend of many low-sulfur, high-volatile bituminous Central Appalachian coals. The baghouse ash showed less variation between units than the mechanical hoppers. The mechanical fly ash, coarser than the baghouse ash, showed significant differences in the amount of total carbon and in the ratio of isotropic coke to both total carbon and total coke - the latter excluding inertinite and other unburned, uncoked coal. There was no significant variation in proportions of inorganic fly ash constituents. The inter-unit differences in the amount and forms of mechanical fly ash carbon appear to be related to differences in pulverizer efficiency, leading to greater amounts of coarse coal, therefore unburned carbon, in one of the units. Mercury capture is a function of both the total carbon content and the gas temperature at the point of fly ash separation, mercury content increasing with an increase in carbon for a specific collection system. Mercury adsorption on fly ash carbon increases at lower flue-gas temperatures. Baghouse fly ash, collected at a lower temperature than the higher-carbon mechanically separated fly ash, contains a significantly greater amount of Hg.

Energy and Fuels↗

USGS2013

Can shale safely host US nuclear waste?

"Even as cleanup efforts after Japan’s Fukushima disaster offer a stark reminder of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) stored at nuclear plants worldwide, the decision in 2009 to scrap Yucca Mountain as a permanent disposal site has dimmed hope for a repository for SNF and other high-level nuclear waste (HLW) in the United States anytime soon. About 70,000 metric tons of SNF are now in pool or dry cask storage at 75 sites across the United States [Government Accountability Office, 2012], and uncertainty about its fate is hobbling future development of nuclear power, increasing costs for utilities, and creating a liability for American taxpayers [Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future, 2012].However, abandoning Yucca Mountain could also result in broadening geologic options for hosting America’s nuclear waste. Shales and other argillaceous formations (mudrocks, clays, and similar clay-rich media) have been absent from the U.S. repository program. In contrast, France, Switzerland, and Belgium are now planning repositories in argillaceous formations after extensive research in underground laboratories on the safety and feasibility of such an approach [Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future, 2012; Nationale Genossenschaft für die Lagerung radioaktiver Abfälle (NAGRA), 2010; Organisme national des déchets radioactifs et des matières fissiles enrichies, 2011]. Other nations, notably Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom, are studying argillaceous formations or may consider them in their siting programs [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2012; Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), (2011a); Powell et al., 2010]."

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2016

Climatic drivers for multidecadal shifts in solute transport and methane production zones within a large peat basin

Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases, but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43 year time series of the pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multidecadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 to 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Δ 14 C with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

Minnesota↗

USGS2016

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Western United States↗

USGS2021

Evidence for widespread changes in the structure, composition, and fire regimes of western North American forests

Implementation of wildfire- and climate-adaptation strategies in seasonally dry forests of western North America is impeded by numerous constraints and uncertainties. After more than a century of resource and land use change, some question the need for proactive management, particularly given novel social, ecological, and climatic conditions. To address this question, we first provide a framework for assessing changes in landscape conditions and fire regimes. Using this framework, we then evaluate evidence of change and lack of change in contemporary conditions following more than a century of fire exclusion. The cumulative results of more than a century of research document a persistent and substantial fire deficit and widespread alterations to the ecological structures and functions maintained by active fire regimes, i.e., those uninterrupted by a century or more of fire exclusion. These changes are not necessarily apparent at all spatial scales or in all dimensions of fire regimes and forest and nonforest conditions. Nonetheless, loss of the once abundant influence of low- and moderate-severity fires suggests that while some ecosystems within these landscapes may not be directly altered by fire exclusion, even the least fire-prone among them may be affected by alteration of the surrounding landscape and, consequently, ecosystem functions. Vegetation spatial patterns in fire-excluded forested landscapes no longer reflect the heterogeneity maintained by interacting fires of active fire regimes. Live and dead vegetation (surface and canopy fuels) is generally more abundant and continuous than before European colonization. As a result, current conditions are more vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of seasonal and episodic increases in fire and drought, especially under a rapidly warming climate. Long-term fire exclusion and contemporaneous social-ecological influences continue to extensively modify seasonally dry forested landscapes. Management that realigns or adapts fire-excluded conditions to seasonal and episodic increases in fire and drought can moderate ecosystem transitions as forests and human communities adapt to changing climatic and disturbance regimes. As adaptation strategies are developed, evaluated, and implemented, objective scientific evaluation of ongoing research and monitoring can aid differentiation between warranted and unwarranted uncertainties.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.

California;Nevada↗

USGS2019

Effects of invasive plants on fire regimes and postfire vegetation diversity in an arid ecosystem

We assessed the impacts of co‐occurring invasive plant species on fire regimes and postfire native communities in the Mojave Desert, western USA. We analyzed the distribution and co‐occurrence patterns of three invasive annual grasses (Bromus rubens, Bromus tectorum, and Schismus spp.) known to alter fuel conditions and community structure, and an invasive forb (Erodium cicutarium) which dominates postfire sites. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for each of the four taxa and analyzed field plot data to assess the relationship between invasives and fire frequency, years postfire, and the impacts on postfire native herbaceous diversity. Most of the Mojave Desert is highly suitable for at least one of the four invasive species, and 76% of the ecoregion is predicted to have high or very high suitability for the joint occurrence of B. rubens and B. tectorum and 42% high or very high suitability for the joint occurrence of the two Bromus species and E. cicutarium. Analysis of cover from plot data indicated two or more of the species occurred in 77% of the plots, with their cover doubling with each additional species. We found invasive cover in burned plots increased for the first 20 years postfire and recorded two to five times more cover in burned than unburned plots. Analysis also indicated that native species diversity and evenness as negatively associated with higher levels of relative cover of the four invasive taxa. Our findings revealed overlapping distributions of the four invasives; a strong relationship between the invasives and fire frequency; and significant negative impacts of invasives on native herbaceous diversity in the Mojave. This suggests predicting the distributions of co‐occurring invasive species, especially transformer species, will provide a better understanding of where native‐dominated communities are most vulnerable to transformations following fire or other disturbances.

California, Nevada↗