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At least 667 records · Page 37Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Connecting dryland fine-fuel assessments to wildfire exposure and natural resource values at risk

Background Wildland fire in arid and semi-arid (dryland) regions can intensify when climatic, biophysical, and land-use factors increase fuel load and continuity. To inform wildland fire management under these conditions, we developed high-resolution (10-m) estimates of fine fuel across the Altar Valley in southern Arizona, USA, which spans dryland, grass-dominated ecosystems that are administered by multiple land managers and owners. We coupled field measurements at the end of the 2021 growing season with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and vegetation indices acquired during and after the growing season to develop predictions of fine fuel across the entire valley. We then assessed how climate, soil, vegetation, and land-use factors influenced the amount and distribution of fine fuels. We connected fine fuels to fire management points, past ignition history, and socio-economic vulnerability to evaluate wildfire exposure and assessed how fuel related to habitat of the endangered masked bobwhite quail ( Colinus virginianus ridgwayi ). Results The high amount of fine fuel (400–3600 kg/ha; mean = 1392 kg/ha) predicted by our remote sensing model ( R 2 = 0.63) for 2021 compared to previous years in the valley was stimulated by near-record high growing season precipitation that was 177% of the 1990–2020 mean. Fine fuel increased across the valley if it was contained within the wildlife refuge boundary and had lower temperature and vapor pressure deficit, higher soil organic content, and abundant annual plants and an invasive perennial grass ( R 2 = 0.24). The index of potential exposure to wildfire showed a clustering of high exposure centered around roads and low-density housing development distant from fire management points and extending into the upper elevations flanking the valley. Within the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, fine fuel increased with habitat suitability for the masked bobwhite quail within and adjacent to core habitat areas, representing a natural resource value at risk, accompanied with higher overall mean fine fuel (1672 kg/ha) in relation to 2015 (1347 kg/ha) and 2020 (1363 kg/ha) means. Conclusions By connecting high-resolution estimates of fine fuel to climatic, biophysical and land-use factors, wildfire exposure, and a natural resource value at risk, we provide a pro-active and adaptive framework for fire risk management within highly variable and rapidly changing dryland landscapes.

Arizona↗

USGS2002

A 1500-year record of climatic and environmental change in Elk Lake, Clearwater County, Minnesota II: Geochemistry, mineralogy, and stable isotopes

Most of the sediment components that have accumulated in Elk Lake, Clearwater County, northwestern Minnesota, over the past 1500 years are authigenic or biogenic (CaCO3, biogenic SiO2, organic matter, iron and manganese oxyhydroxides, and iron phosphate) and are delivered to the sediment-water interface on a seasonal schedule where they are preserved as distinct annual laminae (varves). The annual biogeochemical cycles of these components are causally linked through the 'carbon pump', and are recapitulated in longer-term cycles, most prominently with a periodicity of about 400 years. Organic carbon is fixed in the epilimnion by photosynthetic removal of CO2, which also increases the pH, triggering the precipitation of CaCO3. The respiration and degradation of fixed organic carbon in the hypolimnion consumes dissolved oxygen, produces CO2, and lowers the pH so that the hypolimnion becomes anoxic and undersaturated with respect to CaCO3 during the summer. Some of the CaCO3 produced in the epilimnion is dissolved in the anoxic, lower pH hypolimnion and sediments. The amount of CaCO3 that is ultimately incorporated into the sediments is a function of how much is produced in the epilimnion and how much is consumed in the hypolimnion and the sediments. Iron, manganese, and phosphate accumulate in the anoxic hypolimnion throughout the summer. Sediment-trap studies show that at fall overturn, when iron-, manganese-, and phosphate-rich bottom waters mix with carbonate- and oxygen-rich surface waters, precipitation of iron and manganese oxyhydroxides, iron phosphate, and manganese carbonate begins and continues into the winter months. Detrital clastic material in the sediments of Elk Lake deposited over the last 1500 years is a minor component (<10% by weight) that is mostly wind-borne (eolian). Detailed analyses of the last 1500 years of the Elk Lake sediment record show distinct cycles in eolian clastic variables (e.g. aluminum, sodium, potassium, titanium, and quartz), with a periodicity of about 400 years. The 400-yr cycle in eolian clastic material does not correspond to the 400-yr cycles in redox-sensitive authigenic components, suggesting that the clastic component is responding to external forcing (wind) whereas the authigenic components are responding to internal forcing (productivity), although both may ultimately be forced by climate change. Variations in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of CaCO3 are small but appear to reflect small variations in ground water influx that are also driven by external forcing.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗

USGS2025

Cosmic dust reveals dynamic shifts in central Arctic sea-ice coverage over the past 30,000 years

Arctic sea-ice loss affects biological productivity, sustenance in coastal communities, and geopolitics. Forecasting these impacts requires mechanistic understanding of how Arctic sea ice responds to climate change, but this is limited by scarce long-term records. We present continuous 30,000-year reconstructions of sea-ice coverage from the Arctic Ocean based on measurements of two isotopes, thorium-230 and extraterrestrial helium-3, whose burial ratio changes with sea-ice coverage. We found that the central Arctic was perennially covered by sea ice during the last glaciation. Sea-ice cover retreated during the deglaciation approximately 15,000 years ago, culminating in seasonal sea-ice coverage in the warm early Holocene, before ice coverage increased into the late Holocene. Sea-ice changes closely correlate with biological nutrient consumption, supporting projections of a nutrient-starved central Arctic Ocean with continued sea-ice loss.

Science↗

USGS2014

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

A Holocene pollen record of persistent droughts from Pyramid Lake, Nevada, USA

Pollen and algae microfossils preserved in sediments from Pyramid Lake, Nevada, provide evidence for periods of persistent drought during the Holocene age. We analyzed one hundred nineteen 1-cm-thick samples for pollen and algae from a set of cores that span the past 7630 years. The early middle Holocene, 7600 to 6300 cal yr B.P., was found to be the driest period, although it included one short but intense wet phase. We suggest that Lake Tahoe was below its rim for most of this period, greatly reducing the volume and depth of Pyramid Lake. Middle Holocene aridity eased between 5000 and 3500 cal yr B.P. and climate became variable with distinct wet and dry phases. Lake Tahoe probably spilled intermittently during this time. No core was recovered that represented the period between 3500 and 2600 cal yr B.P. The past 2500 years appear to have had recurrent persistent droughts. The timing and magnitude of droughts identified in the pollen record compares favorably with previously published ??18O data from Pyramid Lake. The timing of these droughts also agrees with the ages of submerged rooted stumps in the Eastern Sierra Nevada and woodrat midden data from central Nevada. Prolonged drought episodes appear to correspond with the timing of ice drift minima (solar maxima) identified from North Atlantic marine sediments, suggesting that changes in solar irradiance may be a possible mechanism influencing century-scale drought in the western Great Basin. ?? 2004 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2023

Matching existing and future native plant materials to disturbance-driven restoration needs

Assessing the appropriateness of existing native plant materials can both determine which seed source to utilize for restoration projects, and identify locations for which new seed sources need to be developed. Here, we demonstrate an approach to meet these needs. This method identifies areas of high restoration need based on disturbance patterns, assesses the regional suitability of existing native plant materials based on climate similarity, and highlights geographic (and climatic) gaps where existing materials are likely unsuitable and where plant material development projects can be prioritized. We examined 12 high priority restoration species across the Colorado Plateau, a 38-million-ha region of the Intermountain West, United States to test our methodological pipeline. Fifty-four percent of the Colorado Plateau is disturbed by livestock grazing, wildfires that have burned in the past 20 years, or energy production from oil and gas wells, natural gas pipelines, and coal mines. Of the 28 commercially available plant materials for six of the focal species, only 3 have climate similarity that encompass more than 50% of the species modeled habitat on the Colorado Plateau. Across all commercial materials, most species (10 of 12) do not have any suitable plant material for 70% or more of their geographic range on the Colorado Plateau. Of those areas identified as not having any suitable plant materials, 47–56% are also disturbed. Our method provides usable, flexible protocols and spatially referenced data sources for optimizing the planning of new native plant materials in any region where restoration is needed and spatial data are available.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2008

Pollen evidence for late pleistocene bering land bridge environments from Norton Sound, Northeastern Bering Sea, Alaska

After more than half a century of paleoenvironmental investigations, disagreements persist as to the nature of vegetation type and climate of the Bering land bridge (BLB) during the late Wisconsin (Sartan) glacial interval. Few data exist from sites on the former land bridge, now submerged under the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Two hypotheses have emerged during the past decade. The first, based on pollen data from Bering Sea islands and adjacent mainlands of western Alaska and Northeast Siberia, represents the likely predominant vegetation on the Bering land bridge during full-glacial conditions: graminoid-herb-willow tundra vegetation associated with cold, dry winters and cool, dry summer climate. The second hypothesis suggests that dwarf birch-shrub-herb tundra formed a broad belt across the BLB, and that mesic vegetation was associated with cold, snowier winters and moist, cool summers. As a step towards resolving this controversy, a sediment core from Norton Sound, northeastern Bering Sea was radiocarbon dated and analyzed for pollen content. Two pollen zones were identified. The older, bracketed by radiocarbon ages of 29,500 and 11,515 14 C yr BP, contains pollen assemblages composed of grass, sedge, wormwood, willow, and a variety of herb (forb) taxa. These assemblages are interpreted to represent graminoid-herb-willow tundra vegetation that developed under an arid, cool climate regime. The younger pollen zone sediments were deposited about 11,515 14 C yr BP, when rising sea level had begun to flood the BLB. This younger pollen zone contains pollen of birch, willow, heaths, aquatic plants, and spores of sphagnum moss. This is interpreted to represent a Lateglacial dwarf birch-heath-willow-herb tundra vegetation, likely associated with a wetter climate with deeper winter snows, and moist, cool summers. This record supports the first hypothesis, that graminoid-herb-willow tundra vegetation extended into the lowlands of the BLB during full glacial conditions of the late Wisconsin.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water↗

USGS2016

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape-level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60-year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape-level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice-rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2023

Integrated water resources trend assessments: State of the science, challenges, and opportunities for advancement

Water is vital to human life and healthy ecosystems. Here we outline the current state of national-scale water resources trend assessments, identify key gaps, and suggest advancements to better address critical issues related to changes in water resources that may threaten human development or the environment. Questions like, “Do we have less suitable drinking water now than we had 20 years ago?” or “Are flood events more common now than they were in the past?” prompted improvements in data, trend estimation methods, and modeling frameworks to track changes in, and better understand how land use and climate influence four water resources domains: surface and groundwater quantity and quality. However, continued advancement in trend assessments to better address issues related to changes in water availability is needed. Areas of need include more timely and efficient delivery of water resources trend results and improved capacity to estimate trends at unmonitored locations. Additional integration pieces include increased understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions, incorporation of both quantity and quality trends into water availability estimates, and the refinement of trend metrics to account for the competing needs of society and ecological integrity. Coupled with improved driver attribution studies, these components will better inform current and future water resources management.

Journal of the American Water Resource Association↗

USGS2006

Water-Table Levels and Gradients, Nevada, 1947-2004

In 1999, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency began a program to protect the quality of ground water in areas other than ground-water protection areas. These other sensitive ground water areas (OSGWA) are areas that are not currently, but could eventually be, used as a source of drinking water. The OSGWA program specifically addresses existing wells that are used for underground injection of motor-vehicle waste. To help determine whether a well is in an OSGWA, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection needs statewide information on depth to water and the water table, which partly control the susceptibility of ground water to contamination and contaminant transport. This report describes a study that used available maps and data to create statewide maps of water-table and depth-to-water contours and surfaces, assessed temporal changes in water-table levels, and characterized water-table gradients in selected areas of Nevada. A literature search of published water-table and depth-to-water contours produced maps of varying detail and scope in 104 reports published from 1948 to 2004. Where multiple maps covered the same area, criteria were used to select the most recent, detailed maps that covered the largest area and had plotted control points. These selection criteria resulted in water-table and depth-to-water contours that are based on data collected from 1947 to 2004 being selected from 39 reports. If not already available digitally, contours and control points were digitized from selected maps, entered into a geographic information system, and combined to make a statewide map of water-table contours. Water-table surfaces were made by using inverse distance weighting to estimate the water table between contours and then gridding the estimates. Depth-to-water surfaces were made by subtracting the water-table altitude from the land-surface altitude. Water-table and depth-to-water surfaces were made for only 21 percent of Nevada because of a lack of information for 49 of 232 basins and for most consolidated-rock hydrogeologic units. Depth to water is commonly less than 50 feet beneath valley floors, 50 to 500 feet beneath alluvial fans, and more than 500 feet in some areas such as north-central and southern Nevada. In areas without water-table information, greasewood and mapped ground-water discharge areas are good indicators of depth to water less than 100 feet. The average difference between measured depth to water and depth to water estimated from surfaces was 90 feet. More recent and detailed information may be needed than that presented in this report to evaluate a specific site. Temporal changes in water-table levels were evaluated for 1,981 wells with 10 or more years between the first depth-to-water measurement and last measurement made since 1990. The greatest increases in depth to water occurred where the first measurement was less than 200 feet, where the time between first and last measurements was 40 years or less, and for wells between 100 and 600 feet deep. These characteristics describe production wells where ground water is fairly shallow in recently developing areas such as the Las Vegas and Reno metropolitan areas. In basins with little pumping, 90 percent of the changes during the past 100 years are within ?20 feet, which is about the natural variation in the water table due to changes in the climate and recharge. Gradients in unconsolidated sediments of the Great Basin are generally steep near mountain fronts, shallow beneath valley floors, and depend on variables such as the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of adjacent consolidated rocks and recharge. Gradients beneath alluvial fans and valley floors at 58 sites were correlated with selected variables to identify those variables that are statistically related. Water-table measurements at three sites were used to characterize the water table between the valley floor and consolidated rock. Water-table gradients beneath alluvial fan

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Spatiotemporal analysis of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data to support monitoring of dryland ecosystems

Drylands are the habitat and source of livelihood for about two fifths of the world’s population and are highly susceptible to climate and anthropogenic change. To understand the vulnerability of drylands to changing environmental conditions, land managers need to effectively monitor rates of past change and remote sensing offers a cost-effective means to assess and manage these vast landscapes. Here, we present a novel approach to accurately monitor land-surface phenology in drylands of the Western United States using a regression tree modeling framework that combined information collected by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) onboard Landsat 8 and the Multispectral Instrument (MSI) onboard Sentinel-2. This highly-automatable approach allowed us to precisely characterize seasonal variations in spectral vegetation indices with substantial agreement between observed and predicted values (R 2 = 0.98; Mean Absolute Error = 0.01). Derived phenology curves agreed with independent eMODIS phenological signatures of major land cover types (average r -value = 0.86), cheatgrass cover (average r -value = 0.96), and growing season proxies for vegetation productivity (R 2 = 0.88), although a systematic bias towards earlier maturity and senescence indicates enhanced monitoring capabilities associated with the use of harmonized Landsat-8 Sentinel-2 data. Overall, our results demonstrate that observations made by the MSI and OLI can be used in conjunction to accurately characterize land-surface phenology and exclusion of imagery from either sensor drastically reduces our ability to monitor dryland environments. Given the declines in MODIS performance and forthcoming decommission with no equivalent replacement planned, data fusion approaches that integrate observations from multispectral sensors will be needed to effectively monitor dryland ecosystems. While the synthetic image stacks are expected to be locally useful, the technical approach can serve a wide variety of applications such as invasive species and drought monitoring, habitat mapping, production of phenology metrics, and land-cover change modeling.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2006

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 19652000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye ( Sander vitreum ). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2015

A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, Central Rocky Mountains U.S.A

Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.

The Holocene↗

USGS2018

Effects of water level and climate on the hydrodynamics and water quality of Anvil Lake, Wisconsin, a shallow seepage lake

Interannual differences in the water quality of Anvil Lake, Wisconsin, were examined to determine how water level and climate affect the hydrodynamics and trophic state of shallow lakes, and their importance compared to anthropogenic changes in the watershed. Anvil Lake is a relatively pristine seepage lake with hydrology dominated by precipitation, evaporation, and groundwater exchange enabling the typically subtle effects of water level and climate to be evaluated. Groundwater and hydrodynamic models were used to describe lake water and phosphorus budgets and how its hydrodynamics are affected by water level and air temperature. Decreases in water level are expected to cause Anvil Lake and other shallow lakes to stratify fewer days, and have warmer bottom temperatures and more deep-mixing events. Increasing air temperatures should cause these lakes to have shorter ice cover, longer summer stratification periods, and warmer bottom temperatures. How water level affects water quality depends on how nutrient loading and lake volume vary: during drier, low-water years, lakes with large interannual changes in loading should have better water quality, whereas lakes with small changes in loading should degrade slightly. Anthropogenic changes in Anvil Lake's watershed over the past ∼100 yr were about 1.5 times the effects of changes in water level when levels were low, but the effects were similar when levels were high. Climate warming is expected to increase productivity in shallow lakes because warmer air temperatures will likely increase bottom temperatures increasing sediment phosphorus release and deep-mixing events enabling this phosphorus to reach the epilimnion.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine

Evidence from woodrat middens and tree rings at Dutch John Mountain (DJM) in northeastern Utah reveal spatiotemporal patterns of pinyon pine ( Pinus edulis Engelm.) colonization and expansion in the past millennium. The DJM population, a northern outpost of pinyon, was established by long-distance dispersal (~40 km). Growth of this isolate was markedly episodic and tracked multidecadal variability in precipitation. Initial colonization occurred by AD 1246, but expansion was forestalled by catastrophic drought (1250–1288), which we speculate produced extensive mortality of Utah Juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little), the dominant tree at DJM for the previous ~8700 years. Pinyon then quickly replaced juniper across DJM during a few wet decades (1330–1339 and 1368–1377). Such alternating decadal-scale droughts and pluvial events play a key role in structuring plant communities at the landscape to regional level. These decadal-length precipitation anomalies tend to be regionally coherent and can synchronize physical and biological processes across large areas. Vegetation forecast models must incorporate these temporal and geographic aspects of climate variability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change.

Utah↗

USGS1983

Late Holocene ice wedges near Fairbanks, Alaska, USA: Environmental setting and history of growth

Test trenches excavated into muskeg near Fairbanks in 1969 exposed a polygonal network of active ice wedges. The wedges occur in peat that has accumulated since about 3500 yr BP and have grown episodically as the permafrost table fluctuated in response to fires, other local site conditions and perhaps regional climatic changes. Radiocarbon dates suggest one or two episodes of ice-wedge growth between about 3500 and 2000 yr BP as woody peat accumulated at the site. Subsequent wedge truncation evidently followed a fire that charred the peat. Younger peat exhibits facies changes between sedge-rich components that filled troughs over the ice wedges and woody bryophytic deposits that formed beyond the troughs. A final episode of wedge development took place within the past few hundred years. Pollen data from the site indicate that boreal forest was present throughout the past 6000 yr, but that it underwent a gradual transition from a predominantly deciduous to a spruce-dominated assemblage. This change may reflect either local site conditions or a more general climatic shift to cooler, moister summers in late Holocene time. The history of ice-wedge growth shows that wedges can form and grow to more than 1 m apparent width under mean annual temperatures that probably are close to those of the Fairbanks area today (-3.5°C) and under vegetation cover similar to that of the interior Alaskan boreal forest. The commonly held belief that ice wedges develop only below mean annual air temperatures of -6 to -8°C in the zone of continuous permafrost is invalid.

Alaska↗