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Scenarios and strategies for future-proofing ecosystem management under climatic novelty

Climate change is driving unprecedented declines in dominant, habitat-forming foundation species across marine and terrestrial ecosystems globally. As climatic novelty becomes the norm, ecosystem reassembly will become increasingly common. Predicting and understanding these transitions, and their implications for future ecosystem functioning, is essential for designing effective forward-looking management strategies. We explored 3 scenarios that describe a range of ecosystem reassembly trajectories following declines in previously dominant habitat-forming taxa: compensation, in which functionally similar subdominant or immigrating taxa maintain ecosystem structure and function; decline, in which no compensation occurs leading to loss of ecosystem structure and function; and transformation, in which the ecosystem present historically can no longer persist and shifts into a fundamentally different ecosystem type with distinct structure and function. This range of potential outcomes highlights the urgent need to assess the ecological feasibility and functional implications of potential management actions. Scientists and managers can work together to quantify local-scale climatic novelty and ecosystem resilience to better predict the most likely reassembly trajectories and identify management interventions that will optimize ecosystem function. This approach would allow for more proactive planning to support persistence of ecosystem structure and function, helping to future-proof ecosystem management in a rapidly changing world.

Conservation Biology↗

Improving the use of expert opinion in disease risk analysis for conservation translocations

Conservation translocations are subject to considerable uncertainty and risk, of which disease is one of the most recognized. To address disease risks, several protocols for qualitative disease risk analysis (qDRA) exist and are used for responsible conservation translocation planning. Existing qDRA protocols usually rely on expert judgment, but they lack quantitative aggregation of elicited estimates, transparent treatment of uncertainty, and explicit comparison of alternative disease risk management pathways. We added these factors to a qDRA for translocation of a charismatic species that is extinct in the wild, the sihek (Guam kingfisher) ( Todiramphus cinnamominus ). We asked a panel of seven independent experts to quantify their judgment of risks of pathogen release, exposure, and consequences for seven pathogen hazards under three translocation management scenarios. Experts suggested that implementing a full biosecurity protocol would reduce risk for several pathogen hazards but would have variable effectiveness (11–65% depending on the hazard). There was substantial uncertainty associated with individual experts and noise among different experts, showing the potential for error if decisions are based on single-point judgments (i.e., providing judgment of a central tendency without accounting for uncertainty) from one expert or on collaborative consensus of multiple experts, as is current practice.

Conservation Biology↗

Cognitive and institutional barriers to effective natural resource management under global change

Many of the most challenging decisions facing natural resource managers today can be understood as time dependent. The concept of time-dependent decisions is useful when considering natural resource management decisions that are characterized by nonstationarity in the underlying ecological system, uncertainty surrounding key ecological relationships, efficacy of management interventions, and difficult trade-offs between the present and the future. In a time-dependent decision, the optimal action changes depending on when the decision is made. We surveyed literature from the fields of cognitive psychology, environmental decision-making, and natural resource management to identify a key set of cognitive and institutional barriers that prevent decision makers from recognizing their decisions as time dependent. This failure obscures the complexity of nonstationarity, uncertainty, and intertemporal choice in natural resource management and facilitates assumptions of stationarity and time independence. We used land acquisition in the context of climate change as an example to explore the barriers to effective time-dependent decision-making at both individual and institutional scales. Using a theoretical model of land acquisition, we quantified the value of accounting for time dependence by comparing the performance of time-dependent, nonstationary decision models with models that assume time independence and stationarity. We found that the conservation value of land acquisition decisions was significantly improved through the use of time-dependent optimization models and that this improvement increased as nonstationarity increased. Finally, explicitly recognizing the time dependence of many natural resource management decisions will help improve the utility of existing decision tools and frameworks.

Conservation Biology↗

Identifying research needs to inform white-nose syndrome management decisions

Ecological understanding of host–pathogen dynamics is the basis for managing wildlife diseases. Since 2008, federal, state, and provincial agencies and tribal and private organizations have collaborated on bat and white‐nose syndrome (WNS) surveillance and monitoring, research, and management programs. Accordingly, scientists and managers have learned a lot about the hosts, pathogen, and dynamics of WNS. However, effective mitigation measures to combat WNS remain elusive. Host–pathogen systems are complex, and identifying ecological research priorities to improve management, choosing among various actions, and deciding when to implement those actions can be challenging. Through a cross‐disciplinary approach, a group of diverse subject matter experts created an influence diagram used to identify uncertainties and prioritize research needs for WNS management. Critical knowledge gaps were identified, particularly with respect to how WNS dynamics and impacts may differ among bat species. We highlight critical uncertainties and identify targets for WNS research. This tool can be used to maximize the likelihood of achieving bat conservation goals within the context and limitations of specific real‐world scenarios.

Conservation Biology↗

Conservation of the Yellowstone grizzly bear

We review literature relevant to the conservation of Yellowstone's grizzly bear population and appraise the bear's long-term viability. We conclude that the population is isolated and vulnerable to epidemic perturbation and that the carrying capacity of the habitat is likely to shift downward under conditions of climate change. Viability analyses based on the assumption that future habitats will closely resemble those existing at present have limited applicability; more information is needed on the autecology of important bear foods and on the implications of landscape-scale changes for bear population dynamics. Optimism over prospects of long-term persistence for Yellowstone's grizzly bears does not seem to be warranted and management of this population should be conservative and not unduly swayed on short-term positive trends.

Yellowstone National Park↗

Scale, variable density, and conservation planning for mammalian carnivores

Many mammalian carnivores are in local or global decline. To slow this process, continued planning to protect these species is warranted, Still, the data bases that we have at our disposal do not adequately document population requirements for space at scales appropriate for conservation planning. To illustrate this problem, we have collected published data for 214 population censuses of carnivores. We tested for a relationship between the number of individuals censused and the size of study site for our entire data set. We conducted the same test for each family, for which we obtained sufficient and qualifying census data With areas ranging from less than 10 km 2 to over 40,000 km 2 , we obtained a significant regression (p < .001; r 2 = 76%) for the sample as a whole. We examined the distribution of densities with increasing area and found that the relationship was not constant but decreased We noticed that numbers per census-area size increased with a slope (m < 1). We also noticed that the sizes of study areas were unevenly distributed Only 7% of the studies in our sample censused regions larger than 10,000 km 2 . It remains unclear to what extent and how the density decreases with increasing scale We expect that extrapolations from small scales to larger ones are likely to underestimate space requirements for carnivores.

Conservation Biology↗

Conservation genetics of the endangered Isle Royale gray wolf

The small group of wolves on Isle Royale has been studied for over three decades as a model of the relationship between large carnivores and their prey. During the last ten years the population declined from 50 individuals to as few as 12 individuals. The causes of this decline may be food shortages, disease, or reduced genetic variability. We address the issues of genetic variability and relationships of Isle Royale wolves using allozyme electrophoresis, mtDNA restriction-site analysis, and multilocus hypervariable minisatellite DNA analysis (genetic fingerprinting). Our results indicate that approximately 50% of the allozyme heterozygosity has been lost in the island population, a decline similar to that expected if no immigration had occurred from the mainland. The genetic fingerprinting data indicate that the seven sampled Isle Royale wolves are as similar as captive populations of siblings. Surprisingly, the Isle Royale wolves have an mDNA genotype that is very rare on the mainland, being found in only one of 144 mainland wolves ThFF suggests that the remaining Isle Royale wolves areprobably derived from a single female founder.

Michigan↗

Interaction between introduced trout and larval salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum) in high-elevation lakes

The larval stage of the long-toed salamander ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ) is the top vertebrate predator in high-elevation fishless lakes in the North Cascades National Park Service Complex, Washington (U.S.A.). Although most of these high-elevation lakes were naturally fishless, trout have been stocked in many of them. We sought to determine the effects of physicochemical factors and introduced trout on abundance and behavior of A. macrodactylum larvae. Larval salamander densities were estimated by snorkeling. Snorkelers carefully searched through substrate materials within 2 m of the shoreline and recorded the number of larvae observed and if larvae were hidden in benthic substrates. Physicochemical factors were measured in each lake on the same day that snorkel surveys were conducted. In fishless lakes, larval salamander densities were positively related to total Kjeldahl-N concentration and negatively related to lake elevation. Crustacean zooplankton, especially cladocerans, were important food resources for larval A. macrodactylum . Crustacean zooplankton and cladoceran densities were positively related to total Kjeldahl-N, suggesting that increased food resources contributed to increased densities of larval A. macrodactylum . Differences in larval salamander densities between fish and fishless lakes were related to total Kjeldahl-N concentrations and the reproductive status of trout. Mean larval salamander densities for fishless lakes with total Kjeldahl-N < 0.045 mg/L were not significantly different from mean larval densities in lakes with reproducing trout or in lakes with nonreproducing trout. In fishless lakes with total Kjeldahl-N ≥ 0.045 mg/L, however, mean larval densities were significantly higher than in lakes with reproducing trout where fish reached high densities. In fishless lakes with total Kjeldahl-N ≥ 0.095 mg/L, mean larval densities were significantly higher than in lakes with nonreproducing trout where trout fry were stocked at low densities. Reduced larval salamander densities in lakes with trout likely resulted from trout predation. There were no significant differences in the percentage of larvae hidden in benthic substrates between fishless lakes and lakes with fish. Our results imply that assessment of the effects of fish on amphibians requires an understanding of natural abiotic and biotic factors and processes influencing amphibian distribution and abundance.

Washington↗

Comparative use of riparian corridors and oases by migrating birds in southeast Arizona

The relative importance of cottonwood-willow riparian corridors and isolated oases to land birds migrating across southeastern Arizona was evaluated during four spring migrations, 1989 to 1994, based on patterns of species richness, relative abundance, density, and body condition of birds. We surveyed birds in 13 study sites ranging in size and connectivity from small isolated patches to extensive riparian forest, sampled vegetation and insects, and captured birds in mistnets. The continuous band of riparian vegetation along the San Pedro River does not appear to be functioning as a corridor for many migrating species, although it may for a few, namely Yellow-breasted Chats ( Icteria virens ), Summer Tanagers ( Piranga rubra ), and Northern Rough-winged Swallows ( Steldigopteryx serripennis ), which account for fewer than 10% of the individuals migrating through the area. Small, isolated oases hosted more avian species than the corridor sites, and the relative abundances of most migrating birds did not differ between sites relative to size-connectivity. There were few differences in between-year variability in the relative abundances of migrating birds between corridor and oasis sites. Between-year variability decreased with overall abundance of species and was greater for species with breeding ranges that centered north of 50°N latitude. Body condition of birds did not differ relative to the size-connectivity of the capture site, but individuals of species with more northerly breeding ranges had more body fat than species that breed nearby. Peak migration densities of several bird species far exceeded breeding densities reported for the San Pedro River, suggesting that large components of these species were en route migrants. Peak densities of Yellow Warblers ( Dendroica petechia ) reached 48.0 birds/ha, of Wilson’s Warblers ( Wilsonia pusilla ) 33.7 birds/ha, and of Yellow-rumped Warblers ( D. coronata ) 30.1 birds/ha. Riparian vegetation is limited in extent in the vicinity of our study sites, covering less than 1% of the landscape. We conclude that all riparian patches in southeastern Arizona are important as stopover sites to en route migrants regardless of their size and degree of isolation or connectivity. In light of potential habitat limitation, the protection of both small, disjunct riparian patches and extensive riverine tracts in western landscapes is imperative.

Arizona↗

Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation

The current conservation crisis calls for research and management to be carried out on a long-term, multi-species basis at large spatial scales. Unfortunately, scientists, managers, and agencies often are stymied in their effort to conduct these large-scale studies because of a lack of appropriate technology, methodology, and funding. This issue is of particular concern in wetland conservation, for which the standard landscape approach may include consideration of a large tract of land but fail to incorporate the suite of wetland sites frequently used by highly mobile organisms such as waterbirds (e.g., shorebirds, wading birds, waterfowl). Typically, these species have population dynamics that require use of multiple wetlands, but this aspect of their life history has often been ignored in planning for their conservation. We outline theoretical, empirical, modeling, and planning problems associated with this issue and suggest solutions to some current obstacles. These solutions represent a tradeoff between typical in-depth single-species studies and more generic multi-species studies. They include studying within- and among-season movements of waterbirds on a spatial scale appropriate to both widely dispersing and more stationary species; multi-species censuses at multiple sites; further development and use of technology such as satellite transmitters and population-specific molecular markers; development of spatially explicit population models that consider within-season movements of waterbirds; and recognition from funding agencies that landscape-level issues cannot adequately be addressed without support for these types of studies.

Conservation Biology↗

Movement patterns and the conservation of amphibians breeding in small, temporary wetlands

Many amphibians breed in water but live most of their lives in terrestrial habitats. Little is known, however, about the spatial distribution of these habitats or of the distances and directions amphibians move to reach breeding sites. The amphibian community at a small, temporary pond in northcentral Florida was monitored for 5 years. Based on captures and recaptures of more than 2500 striped newts (Notophthalmus perstriatus) and 5700 eastern narrow-mouthed toads (Gastrophryne carolinensis), we tabulated the angles of orientation that these amphibians entered and exited the pond basin. Our results showed that movements of these species between the pond and terrestrial habitats were nonrandom in orientation, but that narrow corridors did not appear to be used. Differences between the species likely reflect differences in habitat preferences, whereas intraspecific differences among years and between the sexes likely reflect variation among individuals. For terrestrial buffer zones to be effective at conserving pond-breeding amphibian communities, they need both a distance and a directional component. The determination of a directional component may be obscured if studies are carried out over a short time span. Conservation efforts for wetland-breeding amphibians that concentrate solely on the wetland likely will fail without consideration of the adjacent terrestrial habitat.

Florida↗

Inference methods for spatial variation in species richness and community composition when not all species are detected

Inferences about spatial variation in species richness and community composition are important both to ecological hypotheses about the structure and function of communities and to community-level conservation and management. Few sampling programs for animal communities provide censuses, and usually some species in surveyed areas are not detected. Thus, counts of species detected underestimate the number of species present. We present estimators useful for drawing inferences about comparative species richness and composition between different sampling locations when not all species are detected in sampling efforts. Based on capture-recapture models using the robust design, our methods estimate relative species richness, proportion of species in one location that are also found in another, and number of species found in one location but not in another. The methods use data on the presence or absence of each species at different sampling occasions (or locations) to estimate the number of species not detected at any occasions (or locations). This approach permits estimation of the number of species in the sampled community and in subsets of the community useful for estimating the fraction of species shared by two communities. We provide an illustration of our estimation methods by comparing bird species richness and composition in two locations sampled by routes of the North American Breeding Bird Survey. In this example analysis, the two locations (and associated bird communities) represented different levels of urbanization. Estimates of relative richness, proportion of shared species, and number of species present on one route but not the other indicated that the route with the smaller fraction of urban area had greater richness and a larger number of species that were not found on the more urban route than vice versa. We developed a software package, COMDYN, for computing estimates based on these methods. Because these estimation methods explicitly deal with sampling in which not all species are detected, we recommend their use for addressing questions about species richness and community composition.

Conservation Biology↗

Application of the new keystone-species concept to prairie dogs: How well does it work?

It has been suggested that the keystone-species concept should be dropped from ecology and conservation, primarily because the concept is poorly defined. This prompted Power et al. (1996) to refine the definition: keystone species have large effects on community structure or ecosystem function (i.e., high overall importance), and this effect should be large relative to abundance (i.e., high community importance). Using prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) as an example, I review operational and conceptual difficulties encountered in applying this definition. As applied to prairie dogs, the implicit assumption that overall importance is a linear function of abundance is invalid. In addition, community importance is sensitive to abundance levels, the definition of community, and sampling scale. These problems arise largely from the equation for community importance, as used in conjunction with removal experiments at single abundance levels. I suggest that we shift from the current emphasis on the dualism between keystone and nonkeystone species and instead examine how overall and community importance vary (1) with abundance, (2) across spatial and temporal scales, and (3) under diverse ecological conditions. In addition, I propose that a third criterion be incorporated into the definition: keystone species perform roles not performed by other species or processes. Examination of how these factors vary among populations of keystone species should help identify the factors contributing to, or limiting, keystone-level functions, thereby increasing the usefulness of the keystone-species concept in ecology and conservation. Although the quantitative framework of Power et al. falls short of being fully operational, my conceptual guidelines may improve the usefulness of the keystone-species concept. Careful attention to the factors that limit keystone function will help avoid misplaced emphasis on keystone species at the expense of other species.

Conservation Biology↗

Examining differences between recovered and declining endangered species

Between 1973 and 1999, 43 species in the United States were reclassified from endangered to threatened or removed entirely from the Endangered Species List. Of these, 23 were identified as recovered. In 1999 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ( USFWS) published a list of 33 additional species for possible reclassification and/or delisting. We initiated this study to examine why some endangered species recover but others continue to decline and to identify differences in management activities between these two groups. We defined recovered/recovering species as previously recovered species and the additional recovered/recovering species listed by the USFWS. We defined declining species as those identified as declining in the most recent USFWS Report to Congress. Information on recovered/recovering and declining species was gathered from relevant literature, recovery plans, U.S. Federal Register documents, and individuals responsible for the recovery management of each species. We used this information to examine (1) the percentage of current and historic range covered by management activities; (2) threats affecting the species; (3) population sizes at the time of listing; (4) current versus historic range size; and (5) percentage of recovery management objectives completed. Although few statistical analyses provided significant results, those that did suggest the following differences between recovered/recovering and declining species: (1) recovered/recovering species face threats that are easier to address; (2) recovered/recovering species occupy a greater percentage of their historic range; and (3) recovered/recovering species have a greater percentage of their recovery management objectives completed. Those species with threats easier to address and that occupy a greater percentage of their historic range are recovered/recovering. In contrast, declining species face threats more difficult to address and occupy significantly less of their historic range. If this remains true, future species recovery may require more time and resources.

Conservation Biology↗