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USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory news media management guide — General protocols and templates

This guide describes general protocols and provides templates for news media management at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO) and is intended for use by the CVO scientist-in-charge, communications staff, scientists, and guest communications colleagues. This public version, with CVO names and contact information removed, may be useful to other agencies developing their own protocols and templates. This guide evolved from a smaller document hastily assembled out of necessity during the complex and overwhelming news media interest in the 2004–2008 Mount St. Helens eruption. News media interest exceeded the need for life-saving crisis communication and foretold of the need for future multi-faceted and well-coordinated news media and social media responses during future volcanic events. This guide accompanies the USGS Volcano Science Center’s (VSC’s) general guidelines and protocols for how communications staff at all VSC observatories will work together to respond to news media requests. The protocols and templates are applicable to (1) normal conditions when CVO has an opportunity to be proactive with its messages and to raise general awareness, (2) general responses to news media and TV documentary inquiries, (3) intense news media interest where the responsibility to communicate information and hazards rests primarily with staff at CVO, and (4) intense and overwhelming news media interest that requires a multiagency response. This guide reflects general protocols in effect at the time of publication. The information will be modified as conditions change. Although “news media” generally refers to traditional outlets such as TV, radio, and newspapers, the protocols used to engage these traditional outlets apply also when responding to bloggers, online news services, and social media comments.

Circular↗

Cytochrome P450 1A expression in midwater fishes: Potential effects of chemical contaminants in remote oceanic zones

Cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) induction is a robust marker for exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that are aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. We examined CYP1A expression in mesopelagic fishes from the western North Atlantic. Individuals in 22 species were obtained from slope water and the Sargasso Sea in 1977, 1978, and 1993. Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase (AHH), a CYP1A activity, was detected in liver from all species in 1977/78. In some, including Gonostoma elongatum, AHH was inhibited by the CYP1A inhibitor ??-naphthoflavone. CYP1A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) was detected in liver microsomes of all species in 1993; rates were highest in G. elongatum and Argyropelecus aculeatus. Immunoblot analysis with the CYP1A-specific monoclonal antibody 1-12-3 detected a single microsomal protein band in most 1993 samples; the highest content was in G. elongatum. Immunohistochemical analysis showed CYP1A staining in gill, heart, kidney, and/or liver of several species. Extracts of the 1993 G. elongatum and A. aculeatus, when applied to fish hepatoma cells (PLHC-1) in culture, elicited a significant induction of EROD in those cells. The capacity of the extracts to induce CYP1A correlated with the content of PCBs measured in the same fish (2-4.6 ng/g total body weight). Mesopelagic fish in the western North Atlantic, which experience no direct exposure to surface waters or sediments, are exposed chronically to inducers of CYP1A at levels that appear to be biochemically active in those fish.Cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) induction is a robust marker for exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons and planar halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that are awl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. We examined CYP1A expression in mesopelagic fishes from the western North Atlantic. Individuals in 22 species were obtained from slope water and the Sargasso Sea in 1977, 1978, and 1993. Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase (AHH), a CYP1A activity, was detected in liver from all species in 1977/78. In some, including Gonostoma elongatum, AHH was inhibited by the CYP1A inhibitor ??-naphthoflavone. CYP1A-dependent ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) was detected in liver microsomes of all species in 1993; rates were highest in G. elongatum and Argyropelecus aculeatus. Immunoblot analysis with the CYP1A-specific monoclonal antibody 1-12-3 detected a single microsomal protein band in most 1993 samples; the highest content was in G. elongatum. Immunohistochemical analysis showed CYP1A staining in gill, heart, kidney, and/or liver of several species. Extracts of the 1993 G. elongatum and A. aculeatus, when applied to fish hepatoma cells (PLHC-1) in culture, elicited a significant induction of EROD in those cells. The capacity of the extracts to induce CYP1A correlated with the content of PCBs measured in the same fish (2-4.6 ng/g total body weight). Mesopelagic fish in the western North Atlantic, which experience no direct exposure to surface waters or sediments, are exposed chronically to inducers of CYP1A at levels that appear to be biochemically active in those fish.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Eye lenses reveal ontogenetic trophic and habitat shifts in an imperiled fish, Clear Lake hitch (Lavinia exilicauda chi)

Stable isotopes recorded in fish eye lenses are an emerging tool to track dietary shifts coincident with use of diverse habitats over the lifetime of individuals. Eye lenses are metabolically inert, sequentially deposited, archival tissues that can open avenues to chronicle contaminant exposures, diet histories, trophic dynamics and migratory histories of individual fishes. In this study, we demonstrated that trophic histories reconstructed using eye lenses can resolve key uncertainties regarding diet and trophic habitat shifts. Clear Lake hitch ( Lavinia exilicauda chi ), a threatened cyprinid, inhabits a single lake (Clear Lake, Lake County, California) and utilizes tributary streams for reproduction. Bayesian mixing models applied to δ 13 C and δ 15 N recorded in eye lenses uncovered ontogenetic diet shifts that corresponded with shifts in occupation of habitats providing spawning (tributary streams), rearing (littoral lake), and growth (pelagic lake) functions. The reconstruction of size-structured trophic and habitat information can provide vital information needed to manage and conserve imperiled species such as the Clear Lake hitch.

California↗

The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA

We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about earthquake ground-shaking, which is critical to proper characterization of potential ground motions. Example uses of these simulations for engineering applications provide alternative approaches to introducing the effects of deep basins on long-period ground motions into design requirements. In Seattle, Washington tall building design includes requirements for accounting for the effect of the Seattle basin, and one method for including this effect relies upon local 3-D simulations. In Los Angeles, California a working group of scientists and engineers is advancing the use of local 3-D simulations for local building codes. In light of the benefit to ground motion characterization from the use of 3-D simulations, similar efforts are underway for national-scale seismic hazard analyses, which seek to make use of the extensive work applied from local efforts; current methods for incorporating these effects on a national-scale are presented.

Conference Paper↗

Federal collaboration in science for invasive mammal management in U.S. National Parks and Wildlife Refuges of the Pacific Islands

Some of the most isolated islands in the Pacific Ocean are home to US National Parks and Wildlife Refuges. These islands are known for flora and fauna that occur nowhere else, but also for invasive species and other factors which have resulted in the disproportionate extinction of native species. The control of invasive mammals is the single most expensive natural resource management activity essential for restoring ecological integrity to parks in the Hawaiian Islands, American Samoa, and the islands of Guam and Saipan. Science-based applications supporting management efforts have been shaped by longstanding collaborative federal research programs over the past four decades. Consequently, feral goats (Capra hircus) have been removed from >690 km2 in National Parks, and feral pigs (Sus scrofa) have been removed from >367 km2 of federal lands of Hawai‘i, bringing about the gradual recovery of forest ecosystems. The exclusion of other non-native ungulates and invasive mammals is now being undertaken with more sophisticated control techniques and fences. New fence designs are now capable of excluding feral cats (Felis catus) from large areas to protect endangered native waterfowl and nesting seabirds. Rodenticides which have been tested and registered for hand and aerial broadcast in Hawai‘i have been used to eradicate rats from small offshore islands to protect nesting seabirds and are now being applied to montane environments of larger islands to protect forest birds. Forward-looking infrared radar (FLIR) is also being applied to locate wild ungulates which were more recently introduced to some islands. All invasive mammals have been eradicated from some remote small islands, and it may soon be possible to manage areas on larger islands to be free of invasive mammals at least during seasonally important periods for native species.

Conference Paper↗

Strengthening links between waterfowl research and management

Waterfowl monitoring, research, regulation, and adaptive planning are leading the way in supporting science-informed wildlife management. However, increasing societal demands on natural resources have created a greater need for adaptable and successful linkages between waterfowl science and management. We presented a special session at the 2016 North American Duck Symposium, Annapolis, Maryland, USA on the successes and challenges of linking research and management in waterfowl conservation, and we summarize those thoughts in this commentary. North American waterfowl management includes a diversity of actions including management of harvest and habitat. Decisions for waterfowl management are structured using decision analysis by incorporating stakeholder values into formal objectives, identifying research relevant to objectives, integrating scientific knowledge, and choosing an optimal strategy with respect to objectives. Recently, the consideration of the value of information has been proposed as a means to evaluate the utility of research designed to meet objectives. Despite these advances, the ability to conduct waterfowl research with direct management application may be increasingly difficult in research institutions for several reasons including reduced funding for applied research and the lower perceived value of applied versus theoretical research by some university academics. In addition, coordination between researchers and managers may be logistically constrained, and communication may be ineffective between the 2 groups. Strengthening these links would help develop stronger and more coordinated approaches for the conservation of waterfowl and the wetlands upon which they depend.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Exit here: Strategies for dealing with aging dams and reservoirs

Aging infrastructure is prevalent throughout the world but water control management structures, specifically dams are of growing concern. Dams and their corresponding reservoirs have inherent, but separate, lifespans. The proportion of dams around the world that continue operation beyond their intended lifespans is growing at an alarming rate. Society will not only have to navigate the tradeoffs associated with the deterioration of services provided by reservoirs and dams, but also impending structural failures. Society is nearing a critical pinch point where we will have to decide how to deal with dams and reservoirs at scales that range from a single system to multiple systems in large watersheds. No comprehensive strategy exists to inform both the range of actions that can be applied to such infrastructure and how such actions would influence biophysical, socioeconomic, and geopolitical tradeoffs. The development of proactive exit strategies is a critical first step in ensuring controlled transitions for aging dams and reservoirs. Herein, we present an overview of actions and considerations for aging dams and reservoirs in the USA followed by an initial framework for exit strategy development to launch further discussion on how society could deal with this aging infrastructure.

Aquatic Sciences↗

Modeling post-wildfire hydrologic response: Review and future directions for applications of physically based distributed simulation

Wildfire is a growing concern as climate shifts. The hydrologic effects of wildfire, which include elevated hazards and changes in water quantity and quality, are increasingly assessed using numerical models. Post-wildfire application of physically based distributed models provides unique insight into the underlying processes that affect water resources after wildfire. This work reviews and synthesizes post-wildfire applications of physically based distributed models by examining the scales and geographic/ecohydrologic distribution of model applications, hydrologic response process representation, model parameterization, and model performance metrics. Highlighted gaps and opportunities for advancing physically based distributed hydrologic response modeling after wildfire include the following: (a) applying models in under-represented geographic (S. America, Africa, Asia) and ecohydrologic regions (arid or dry subhumid climates), (b) incorporating all four major streamflow generation mechanisms (infiltration excess, saturation excess, subsurface storm flow, and groundwater flow), (c) representing integrated vadose zone and saturated zone processes to better capture subsurface streamflow generation, (d) building new remotely sensed model parameterization methods for precipitation interception, infiltration, and overland flow that account for burn severity and recovery, (e) incorporating distributed state variables (e.g., soil moisture, groundwater levels) in model performance assessment, (f) designing model intercomparison studies, including field datasets specifically for post-wildfire model development and validation, (g) linking mechanistic vegetation regrowth models with hydrologic models to improve simulation of process shifts as ecosystems recover, and (h) creating a new community modeling framework to integrate modeling advances across the wildfire science community.

Earth's Future↗

The past is the key to the future

A new major frontier of geological research, which was initiated in the 1970's, involves predicting future geologic trends or events through study of the present and past, rather than trying to understand the past, often using what one knows about the present. Like most scientific frontiers, this one began from practical considerations—environmental concerns. The lack of formal recognition of this frontier results from fragmentation among many Federal agencies and highly focused mission-oriented programs ( e.g. , earthquake prediction, CO 2 , nuclear-energy safety, etc.). Most programs aim to predict only the next 50–100 years, but much longer periods of the past need to be studied to do this. Nuclear-waste disposal has sometimes been considered in terms of the next million years, a period of time permitting significant and broad geologic changes. Decreasing public interest in environmental concerns relegates many questions from the realm of applied research back to that of basic research. Most of these questions are so fascinating, however, that the frontier is still worth pursuing. Such questions include whether a phenomenon will or will not take place and the rates at which it can develop ( e.g. , how fast do rifts form, how fast can a caldera event begin, and how quickly can a glacial maximum arrive?). Common elements of all studies include the historic record, trends in the Quaternary, analogues in various periods of the geologic time scale, and allowance for phenomena never experienced before. Other examples of studies include the Cretaceous as a period of a climatic extreme, an especially interesting time period; establishing the amount of paleocloudiness, a particularly challenging and important research area; acid rain as a possible new phenomenon. Geochemistry has much to contribute to this frontier science.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

Lead isotope determinations from sulfide mineral occurrences--Russian Far East

The lead isotope database for sulfide deposits and occurrences in the Russian Far East was funded by the Mineral Resources Program, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in conjunction with the collaborative studies of mineral resources by the Russian Academy of Sciences and the U. S. Geological Survey (Nokleberg and others, 1996). Comparisons of these data with similar lead isotope data from Alaska published in Church, Delevaux, and others (1987) and Gaccetta and Church (1989) provide a basis for the following three-fold project objectives: 1. To utilize lead isotope signatures, in conjunction with regional mapping, to assess the relative ages and to categorize the types of mineral deposits studied, 2. To relate the lead isotope and trace-element geochemical signatures of specific deposits and occurrences to ore-forming processes, and 3. To use the lead isotope data to correlate lithotectonic terranes within the northern Cordillera (Alaska, Yukon Territories and British Columbia in Canada, and the western Cordillera of the United States). The report by Church, Gray, and others (1987) shows how this fingerprinting methodology can be applied to trace the offset of lithotectonic (or lithostratigraphic as labeled by some authors) terranes.The lead isotope data presented in table 1 represent the work completed on sulfide mineral deposits located in the Russian Far East from 1993 to 1995, when this study was terminated due to lack of funding. The lead isotope data are reported here for use by investigators who may find them of value in mineral exploration. No attempt is made to summarize the voluminous literature on these mineral deposits.

Data Series↗

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1995

This collection of 20 papers continues the annual series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on geologic investigations in Alaska1 . Contributions cover a broad spectrum of earth science topics and report results from all parts of the State (fig. 1). USGS activities in Alaska include studies of environment and climate, hazards, resources, and geologic framework. Five papers in this volume discuss aspects of environment and climate. Environmental geochemistry of parts of southwestern and south-central Alaska is the focus of four articles; a fifth study, of emergent postglacial lake shorelines in southwestern Alaska, contributes to ongoing investigations of paleoclimate. Two papers address geologic hazards. The first assesses ground deformation in Katmai National Park at Novarupta dome, site of the largest volcanic eruption in this century, and the second evaluates earthquake risks related to the "Twin Peak fault" near Anchorage. Resources, including metallic minerals in northern, southwestern, and southeastern Alaska and coal in south-central Alaska, are discussed in four articles. Nine geologic framework studies apply a variety of techniques to a wide range of subjects throughout Alaska, including tectonics, geophysics, geochronology, bio stratigraphy, sedimentology, paleogeography, and paleomagnetism. Two bibliographies at the end of the volume list reports about Alaska in USGS publications released in 1995 and reports about Alaska by USGS authors in non-USGS publications in 1995.

Alaska↗

Potential risks of vegetation treatments to introduce and increase invasive annual grasses in rangelands of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota— A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of planned structured science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information relevant to environmental effects analyses concerned with potential increases in the distribution and abundance of invasive annual grasses (IAGs) from proposed vegetation treatments for habitat restoration. The focal environments for this synthesis are rangelands in the intermontane valleys of Montana and the northern Great Plains of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The synthesis is organized to align with the standard elements of NEPA analyses and provides information on relevant scientific studies, data availability, analysis methods, and mitigation measures. We found that the likelihood of increasing IAGs from vegetation treatments depends on treatment type and environmental context. In sagebrush ecosystems of the focal region, prescribed fire often reduces or does not increase IAGs. Treatments that cause soil disturbances, such as mechanical removals of sagebrush or firebreak constructions, are more likely to increase IAGs than other treatments. Herbicides applied to reduce sagebrush cover have not increased the proportion of IAGs in the plant community. Temperature and precipitation have been strong factors in determining IAG responses to vegetation treatments in sagebrush ecosystems of the focal region, where more precipitation in spring and summer likely provides a competitive edge to native, perennial grasses more than winter annual grasses like Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass). In grasslands, prescribed fire often reduces IAGs, but effects depend on the abundance of native species and are often short lived. Mowing can increase or decrease IAGs in grassland ecosystems. Grassland site conditions, such as southeast-facing slopes, sandier or rockier sites, or lower native species cover or richness affect the likelihood of invasion by annual grasses. Maintaining adequate cover of perennial vegetation creates rangelands that are resistant and resilient to annual grass invasions. Managers can minimize invasion potential by focusing on treatment type, placement, and seasonal timing. Herbicides also can provide effective mitigation, especially in combination with other controls such as prescribed fire or grazing. This report can be incorporated by reference in NEPA documentation, included in a project record, or provide a general reference for understanding and identifying literature about increases in IAGs associated with vegetation treatments in rangelands in this focal region.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

A generically parameterized model of lake eutrophication (GPLake) that links field-, lab- and model-based knowledge

Worldwide, eutrophication is threatening lake ecosystems. To support lake management numerous eutrophication models have been developed. Diverse research questions in a wide range of lake ecosystems are addressed by these models. The established models are based on three key approaches: the empirical approach that employs field surveys, the theoretical approach in which models based on first principles are tested against lab experiments, and the process-based approach that uses parameters and functions representing detailed biogeochemical processes. These approaches have led to an accumulation of field-, lab- and model-based knowledge, respectively. Linking these sources of knowledge would benefit lake management by exploiting complementary information; however, the development of a simple tool that links these approaches was hampered by their large differences in scale and complexity. Here we propose a Generically Parameterized Lake eutrophication model (GPLake) that links field-, lab- and model-based knowledge and can be used to make a first diagnosis of lake water quality. We derived GPLake from consumer-resource theory by the principle that lacustrine phytoplankton is typically limited by two resources: nutrients and light. These limitations are captured in two generic parameters that shape the nutrient to chlorophyll- a relations. Next, we parameterized GPLake, using knowledge from empirical, theoretical, and process-based approaches. GPLake generic parameters were found to scale in a comparable manner across data sources. Finally, we show that GPLake can be applied as a simple tool that provides lake managers with a first diagnosis of the limiting factor and lake water quality, using only the parameters for lake depth, residence time and current nutrient loading. With this first-order assessment, lake managers can easily assess measures such as reducing nutrient load, decreasing residence time or changing depth before spending money on field-, lab- or model- experiments to support lake management.

Science of the Total Environment↗

History and sources of co-occurring pesticides in an abstraction well unravelled by age distributions of depth specific groundwater samples

When groundwater-based drinking water supply becomes contaminated, the timing and source of contamination are obvious questions. However, contaminants often have diffuse sources and different contaminants may have different sources even in a single groundwater well, making these questions complicated to answer. Age dating of groundwater has been used to reconstruct contaminant travel times to wells; however, critics have highlighted that groundwater flow is often complex with mixing of groundwater of different ages. In drinking water wells, where water is typically abstracted from a large depth interval, such mixing is even more problematic. We present a way to overcome some of the obstacles in identifying the source and age of contaminants in drinking water wells by combining depth-specific sampling with age tracer modeling, particle tracking simulations, geological characterization, and contaminant properties. This multitool approach was applied to a drinking water well, where bentazon and dichlorprop contamination was found to have different pollutant sources and release histories, even though both pesticides can be associated with the same land use. Bentazon was derived from recent application to a golf course, while dichlorprop was derived from agricultural use more than 30 years ago. The advantages, limitations, and pitfalls of the proposed course of action are then further discussed.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Achieving success with RISE: A widely implementable, iterative, structured process for mastering interdisciplinary team science collaborations

Scientific experts from different disciplines often struggle to mesh their specialized perspectives into the shared mindset that is needed to address difficult and persistent environmental, ecological, and societal problems. Many traditional graduate programs provide excellent research and technical skill training. However, these programs often do not teach a systematic way to learn team skills, nor do they offer a protocol for identifying and tackling increasingly integrated interdisciplinary (among disciplines) and transdisciplinary (among researchers and stakeholders) questions. As a result, professionals trained in traditional graduate programs (e.g., current graduate students and employed practitioners) may not have all of the collaborative skills needed to advance solutions to difficult scientific problems. In the present article, we illustrate a tractable, widely implementable structured process called RISE that accelerates the development of these missing skills. The RISE process (Route to Identifying, learning, and practicing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary team Skills to address difficult Environmental problems) can be used by diverse teams as a tool for research, professional interactions, or training. RISE helps professionals with different expertise learn from each other by repeatedly asking team-developed questions that are tested using an interactive quantitative tool (e.g., agent-based models, machine learning, case studies) applied to a shared problem framework and data set. Outputs from the quantitative tool are then discussed and interpreted as a team, considering all team members’ perspectives, disciplines, and expertise. After this synthesis, RISE is repeated with new questions that the team jointly identified in earlier data interpretation discussions. As a result, individual perspectives, originally informed by disciplinary training, are complemented by a shared understanding of team function and elevated interdisciplinary knowledge.

BioScience↗

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

College and university environmental programs as a policy problem (Part 2): Strategies for improvement

Environmental studies and environmental sciences programs in American and Canadian colleges and universities seek to ameliorate environmental problems through empirical enquiry and analytic judgment. In a companion article (Part 1) we describe the environmental program movement (EPM) and discuss factors that have hindered its performance. Here, we complete our analysis by proposing strategies for improvement. We recommend that environmental programs re-organize around three principles. First, adopt as an overriding goal the concept of human dignity—defined as freedom and social justice in healthy, sustainable environments. This clear higher-order goal captures the human and environmental aspirations of the EPM and would provide a more coherent direction for the efforts of diverse participants. Second, employ an explicit, genuinely interdisciplinary analytical framework that facilitates the use of multiple methods to investigate and address environmental and social problems in context. Third, develop educational programs and applied experiences that provide students with the technical knowledge, powers of observation, critical thinking skills and management acumen required for them to become effective professionals and leaders. Organizing around these three principles would build unity in the EPM while at the same time capitalizing on the strengths of the many disciplines and diverse local conditions involved.

Environmental Management↗