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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Overwintering strategies of migratory birds: a novel approach for estimating seasonal movement patterns of residents and transients

Our understanding of movement patterns in wildlife populations has played an important role in current ecological knowledge and can inform landscape conservation decisions. Direct measures of movement can be obtained using marked individuals, but this requires tracking individuals across a landscape or multiple sites. We demonstrate how movements can be estimated indirectly using single-site, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) data with a multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model (MSORD-SU). We treat residence and transience as two phenotypic states of overwintering migrants and use time- and state-dependent probabilities of site entry and persistence as indirect measures of movement. We applied the MSORD-SU to data on eight species of overwintering Neotropical birds collected in 14 countries between 2002 and 2011. In addition to entry and persistence probabilities, we estimated the proportions of residents at a study site and mean residence times. We identified overwintering movement patterns and residence times that contrasted with prior categorizations of territoriality. Most species showed an evidence of residents entering sites at multiple time intervals, with transients tending to enter between peak resident movement times. Persistence and the proportion of residents varied by latitude, but were not always positively correlated for a given species. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that migratory songbirds commonly move among habitats during the overwintering period. Substantial proportions of populations appear to be comprised of transient individuals, and residents tend to persist at specific sites for relatively short periods of time. This information on persistence and movement patterns should be explored for specific habitats to guide landscape management on the wintering grounds, such as determining which habitats are conserved or restored as part of certification programmes of tropical agroforestry crops. We suggest that research and conservation efforts on Neotropical migrant songbirds focus on identifying landscape configurations and regional habitat networks that support these diverse overwintering strategies to secure full life cycle conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2024

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefiting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated a 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide in Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗
USGS2024

Scale-dependence in elk habitat selection for a reintroduced population in Wisconsin, USA

Habitat selection is a critical aspect of a species' ecology, requiring complex decision-making that is both hierarchical and scale-dependent, since factors that influence selection may be nested or unequal across scales. Elk ( Cervus canadensis ) ranged widely across diverse ecoregions in North America prior to European settlement and subsequent eastern extirpation. Most habitat selection studies have occurred within their contemporary western range, even after eastern reintroductions began. As habitat selection can vary by geographic location, available cover, season, and diel period, it is important to understand how a non-migratory, reintroduced population in northern Wisconsin, USA, is limited by the lack of variation in topography, elevation, and vegetation. We tested scale-dependent habitat selection on 79 adult elk from 2017 to 2020 using resource selection functions across temporal (i.e., seasonal) and spatial scales (i.e., landscape and home range). We found that selection varied both spatially and temporally, and elk selected areas with the greatest potential to influence fitness at larger scales, meaning elk selected areas closer to escape cover and further from “risky” features (e.g., annual wolf territory centers, county roads, and highways). We found stronger avoidance of annual wolf territory centers during spring, suggesting elk were selecting safer habitats during calving season. Elk selected habitats with less canopy cover across both spatial scales and all seasons, suggesting that elk selected areas with better access to forage as early seral stage stands have greater forage biomass than closed-canopy forests and direct solar radiation to provide warmth in the cooler seasons. This study provides insight into the complexity of hierarchical decision-making, such as how risky habitat features and land cover type influence habitat selection differently across seasons and spatial scales, influencing the decision-making of elk. Scale-dependent behavior is crucial to understand within specific geographic regions, as these decisions scale up to influence population dynamics.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2021

Genome-wide SNP analysis reveals multiple paternity in Burmese pythons invasive to the Greater Florida Everglades

Reproductive strategies are an essential component of invasion ecology that influence invasion success and rates of population growth. Burmese Pythons ( Python bivittatus ) are large constrictor snakes that were introduced to the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of southern Florida, USA, from Asia. Since their introduction, these giant constrictors have spread throughout wetlands of southern Florida while increasing in abundance and causing declines in the native species upon which they prey. Multiple paternity in reproduction could facilitate invasion success by increasing the genetic diversity produced within each reproductive event. We used Diversity Arrays Technology genome-wide genotyping to assess multiple paternity in the progeny of wild Burmese Pythons in Florida. We analyzed >4,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms from 153 neonates belonging to 4 clutches collected in southwestern Florida. Complementary hierarchical and K -means clustering analyses of the genetic distances within clutches revealed that three clutches were each fertilized by two sires, with a fourth fertilized by a single sire. The proportions of offspring attributable to each sire within multiple paternity clutches ranged from nearly even to highly skewed. Analysis of multivariate dispersion showed significantly increased genetic variability in the multiple paternity clutches. These results improve our understanding of the reproductive strategy and invasion potential of a giant constrictor with significant ecological impacts.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Understanding the future of big sagebrush regeneration: challenges of projecting complex ecological processes

Regeneration is an essential demographic step that affects plant population persistence, recovery after disturbances, and potential migration to track suitable climate conditions. Challenges of restoring big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) after disturbances including fire-invasive annual grass interactions exemplify the need to understand the complex regeneration processes of this long-lived, woody species that is widespread across the semiarid western U.S. Projected 21st century climate change is expected to increase drought risks and intensify restoration challenges. A detailed understanding of regeneration will be crucial for developing management frameworks for the big sagebrush region in the 21st century. Here, we used two complementary models to explore spatial and temporal relationships in the potential of big sagebrush regeneration representing (1) range-wide big sagebrush regeneration responses in natural vegetation (process-based model) and (2) big sagebrush restoration seeding outcomes following fire in the Great Basin and the Snake River Plains (regression-based model). The process-based model suggested substantial geographic variation in long-term regeneration trajectories with central and northern areas of the big sagebrush region remaining climatically suitable, whereas marginal and southern areas are becoming less suitable. The regression-based model suggested, however, that restoration seeding may become increasingly more difficult, illustrating the particularly difficult challenge of promoting sagebrush establishment after wildfire in invaded landscapes. These results suggest that sustaining big sagebrush on the landscape throughout the 21st century may climatically be feasible for many areas and that uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of big sagebrush may be driven more by dynamics of biological invasions and wildfire than by uncertainty in climate change projections. Divergent projections of the two models under 21st century climate conditions encourage further study to evaluate potential benefits of re-creating conditions of uninvaded, unburned natural big sagebrush vegetation for post-fire restoration seeding, such as seeding in multiple years and, for at least much of the northern Great Basin and Snake River Plains, the control of the fire-invasive annual grass cycle.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗
USGS2019

Spatial ecology of urban striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in the Northern Great Plains: A framework for future oral rabies vaccination programs

Few studies have investigated the ecology of urban striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ) despite their role as a primary rabies vector species paired with an ability to thrive in these landscapes. Information on home range, nightly movements, and habitat selection, is important for rabies management planning regarding the placement of oral rabies vaccine (ORV) baits and for management of skunk populations more generally. Our aim was to obtain baseline ecological information with an emphasis on spatial ecology of urban striped skunks in the Northern Great Plains region that is lacking in the literature. We used radio telemetry to track 22 (4 M, 18 F) skunks during September 2016 to November 2016 and March 2017 to November 2017. Size of home range using kernel density estimation with smoothing by least squares cross validation identified that male skunks ( x ¯ ">

North Dakota↗
USGS2016

Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: A case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. We assessed the capacity of coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ), an ecologically and economically important species in the northwestern USA, to tolerate both drought and cold stress on 35 populations grown in common gardens. We used principal components analysis to combine drought and cold hardiness trait data into generalized stress hardiness traits to model geographic variation in hardiness as a function of climate across the Douglas‐fir range. Drought and cold hardiness converged among populations along winter temperature gradients and diverged along summer precipitation gradients. Populations originating in regions with cold winters had relatively high tolerance to both drought and cold stress, which is likely due to overlapping adaptations for coping with winter desiccation. Populations from regions with dry summers had increased drought hardiness but reduced cold hardiness, suggesting a trade‐off in tolerance mechanisms. Our findings highlight the necessity to look beyond bivariate trait–climate relationships and instead consider multiple traits and climate variables to effectively model and manage for the impacts of climate change on widespread species.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2022

A novel application of hierarchical modelling to decouple sampling artifacts from socio-ecological effects on poaching intensity

Poaching is a global driver of wildlife population decline, including inside protected areas (PAs). Reducing poaching requires an understanding of its cryptic drivers and accurately quantifying poaching scales and intensity. There is little quantification of how poaching is affected by law enforcement intensity (e.g., ranger stations) versus economic factors (e.g., unemployment), while simultaneously accounting for imperfect detection. Using extensive data of poaching events (i.e., seizures) and censuses of nine ungulate species across the PAs and unprotected lands of Iran from 2010 to 2018, we developed a single-visit hierarchical (N-mixture) model to accurately estimate annual poaching of Iranian ungulates and to differentiate between social and ecological effects on annual poaching intensity. We found that poaching detectability increased with numbers of ranger stations. A recent surge in poaching (2013–2018) coincides with rising unemployment rate. We estimated that 19,727 ungulates (95% confidence interval 11,178–36,195) were poached across the country during 2010–2018. Poaching intensity was positively related to unemployment rate, road density, and ungulate abundance. Our simulations demonstrated that the Poisson and Negative binomial N-mixture models had adequate performance when the conditions of Sólymos et al. (2012) were satisfied, in particular, when at least one covariate is unique to both the detection and abundance parts of the model. Overall, we suggest that single-visit models offer unique insights into understanding the link between poaching intensity, economic conditions, and law enforcement in large-scale landscapes while accounting for imperfect detection of poaching events.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2015

A critical assessment of the ecological assumptions underpinning compensatory mitigation of salmon-derived nutrients

We critically evaluate some of the key ecological assumptions underpinning the use of nutrient replacement as a means of recovering salmon populations and a range of other organisms thought to be linked to productive salmon runs. These assumptions include: (1) nutrient mitigation mimics the ecological roles of salmon, (2) mitigation is needed to replace salmon-derived nutrients and stimulate primary and invertebrate production in streams, and (3) food resources in rearing habitats limit populations of salmon and resident fishes. First, we call into question assumption one because an array of evidence points to the multi-faceted role played by spawning salmon, including disturbance via redd-building, nutrient recycling by live fish, and consumption by terrestrial consumers. Second, we show that assumption two may require qualification based upon a more complete understanding of nutrient cycling and productivity in streams. Third, we evaluate the empirical evidence supporting food limitation of fish populations and conclude it has been only weakly tested. On the basis of this assessment, we urge caution in the application of nutrient mitigation as a management tool. Although applications of nutrients and other materials intended to mitigate for lost or diminished runs of Pacific salmon may trigger ecological responses within treated ecosystems, contributions of these activities toward actual mitigation may be limited.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2010

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as projected.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2026

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee↗
USGS2003

Importance of the predator's ecological neighborhood in modeling predation on migrating prey

Most mathematical descriptions of predator-prey interactions fail to take into account the spatio-temporal structures of the populations, which can lead to errors or misinterpretations. For example, a compact pulse of prey migrating through a field of quasi-stationary predators may not be well described by standard predator-prey models, because the predators and prey are unlikely to be well mixed; that is, the prey may be exposed to only a fraction of the predator population at a time. This underscores the importance of properly accounting for the ecological neighborhood, or effective feeding range, of predators in models. We illustrate this situation with a series of models of salmon smolts migrating through a reservoir arrayed with predators. The reservoir is divided into a number of longitudinal compartments or spatial cells, the length of each cell representing the upstream-downstream range over which predators can forage. In this series of models a 100-km-long reservoir is divided, successively into 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 cells, with respective cell lengths of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 km. We used a detailed individual-based simulation model at first, but to ensure robustness of results we supplemented this with a simple analytic model. Both models showed sharp differences in the predicted mortality to a compact pulse of smolt prey moving through the reservoir, depending on the number of spatial cells in the model. In particular, models with fewer than about 10 cells vastly overpredicted the amount of mortality due to predators with activity ranges of not more than a few kilometers. These results corroborate recent theoretical and simulation studies on the importance of spatial scale and behavior in modeling predator-prey dynamics.

Oikos↗
USGS2016

Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2025

Environmental DNA monitoring of invasive Central American boas in St. Croix at Salt River Bay National Historical Park and Ecological Preserve (SARI)

Invasive Central American boas ( Boa imperator ) have established a reproducing population on the western side of St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands but prevalence throughout the island is largely unknown. The large snakes threaten endemic and endangered species through competition and predation, jeopardizing island biodiversity. Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods were used to investigate occurrence and focal areas for management efforts in the Salt River Bay National Historical Park and Ecological Preserve (SARI). To validate a previously developed assay, we collected tissue samples and 13 × 60 mL water samples from a captive boa enclosure in St. Croix. We implemented this assay for both a pilot and main field sampling effort. The pilot in December 2023 resulted in analysis of 7 × 60 mL water samples per site from SARI (3 sites) and from the western forests where boas are established (1 site). The main sampling event in July 2024 collected 15 × 60 mL water samples per site within SARI (11 sites) and western forests (4 sites). Pilot sample replicates were filtered individually, while main samples were consolidated into groups, resulting in seven replicates for pilot sites and five replicates for main event sites, totaling 103 environmental samples. eDNA was isolated using a modified phenol-chloroform isolation method to remove PCR inhibitors, and target eDNA was amplified using droplet digital PCR technology. Water samples from the captive boa amplified target eDNA in 12 of 13 samples, indicating assay effectiveness ex-situ. Low concentrations of eDNA (below the 95% limit of detection) were amplified in 4 of 5 sites in the western forest and in 8 of 14 sites within the National Historic Park. Overall, boa eDNA concentrations were consistently low, as expected in water samples targeting a semi-arboreal snake species with a low rate of eDNA shedding. Further optimization of methods could enable recovery of greater eDNA concentrations in future studies. Additional eDNA method testing and ground-truthing may help to improve the assessment of invasive Boa imperator in St. Croix.

Science Report↗
USGS2008

Checklists: An under-used tool for the inventory and monitoring of plants and animals

Checklists are widely used to catalog field observations of plants and animals. We used 25 years of bird checklist data from the Études des Populations d’Oiseaux du Quebec program to examine the ability of checklists to produce reliable conservation, management, and ecological information. We found that checklists can provide reliable information on changes in bird populations, phenology, and geographic and climate abundance patterns at local, regional, and continental scales. Professional and amateur conservation groups that need to develop extensive monitoring programs should take advantage of the fact that checklists, unlike other time-consuming and expensive techniques, can be used to detect large-scale changes in an entire community of species.

Quebec↗
USGS2014

Reply to Efford on ‘Integrating resource selection information with spatial capture-recapture’

1. We proposed ( Methods in Ecology and Evolution , 2013, 4) a model for combining telemetry data with spatial capture–recapture (SCR) data that was vigorously criticized by Efford ( Methods in Ecology and Evolution , 2014, 000, 000). Efford's main claim was that our encounter probability model was incorrect, and therefore our R code and simulation results were wrong. 2. In fact, our encounter probability model is correct under the Poisson point process model that we used as a basis for our integrated model. On the other hand, the basis for Efford's claims clearly rest on the assumption of an alternative model which, while possibly useful, is distinct from that analysed in Royle et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2013, 4). 3. A key point of Royle et al. ( Methods in Ecology and Evolution , 2013, 4) was that active resource selection induces heterogeneity in encounter probability which, if unaccounted for, should bias estimates of population size or density. The models of Royle et al. ( Methods in Ecology and Evolution , 2013, 4) and Efford ( Methods in Ecology and Evolution , 2014, 000, 000) merely amount to alternative models of resource selection, and hence varying amounts of heterogeneity in encounter probability.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2006

Spatial and Temporal Migration Patterns of Neotropical Migrants in the Southwest Revealed by Stable Isotopes

Executive Summary We used stable hydrogen isotopes (?D) to investigate both temporal and spatial patterns during spring migration for three warbler species, Wilson's Warbler (Wilsonia pusilla), MacGillivray's Warbler (Oporornis tolmiei), and Nashville Warbler (Vermivora ruficapilla), across multiple migration routes in southwest North America. A strong correlation between stable hydrogen isotope values of feathers and the local precipitation at sites where feathers where collected across the breeding range for all three species reaffirmed that stable hydrogen isotopes were a good predictor of breeding locations. For the Wilson's Warbler, we found a significant negative relationship between the date when warblers passed through the sampling station and ?D values of their feathers, indicating that warblers who bred the previous season at southern latitudes migrated through the migration stations earlier than did warblers that had previously bred at more northern latitudes. This pattern was consistent across their southwestern migration route (5 sites sampled) and was consistent between years. Comparing ?D values between migration stations also showed a shift towards more negative ?D values from the western to the eastern migration stations sampled in this study, which corresponded to different geographical regions of the Wilson's Warblers' western breeding range. For MacGillivray's Warbler we found the same temporal pattern as Wilson's Warbler, with warblers that bred the previous season at southern latitudes migrating through the migration stations earlier than warblers that had previously bred at more northern latitudes. This pattern was consistent at the Lower Colorado River and Arivaca Creek, the two sites where sample sizes were adequate to test these hypotheses. Comparison of the ?D between the two sites indicated that the majority of warblers migrating through these stations were breeding within a geographically limited area of MacGillivray's Warblers' overall breeding range. This is in contrast to the larger range of ?D values for Wilson's Warblers at these two sites, which corresponded to a broader area across their breeding range. Feathers were also collected across MacGillivray's Warblers' wintering range, and stable hydrogen isotope analysis indicated a significant positive relationship with wintering latitude. Because the ?D value of MacGillivray's Warblers' feathers reflects the ?D value of their breeding locations, with more negative values representing more northerly breeding latitudes, this positive relationship between feather ?D and wintering latitude indicated that warblers wintering at more southern latitudes bred at more northern latitudes. This supports a leapfrog migration system for MacGillivray's Warblers and is the first documentation of such a pattern. We did not find a temporal pattern to the spring migration of Nashville Warblers. This lack of temporal pattern could be due to the reduced size of the breeding and wintering ranges of Nashville Warblers, both of which could decrease the advantages of a temporal migration pattern. A small population of Nashville Warblers also breeds on the California coast and the sporadic nature of migration for Nashville Warblers in the southwest suggests that in some years more Nashville Warblers may winter along the California coast. The information in this study has increased our understanding of both spatial and temporal patterns of migration for three neotropical migrant birds and has important implications for understanding the ecology and evolution of migrants and factors influencing overall population dynamics.

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