USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Natural Resource Modeling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

Simulation of Multiscale Ground-Water Flow in Part of the Northeastern San Joaquin Valley, California

The transport and fate of agricultural chemicals in a variety of environmental settings is being evaluated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program. One of the locations being evaluated is a 2,700-km2 (square kilometer) regional study area in the northeastern San Joaquin Valley surrounding the city of Modesto, an area dominated by irrigated agriculture in a semi-arid climate. Ground water is a key source of water for irrigation and public supply, and exploitation of this resource has altered the natural flow system. The aquifer system is predominantly alluvial, and an unconfined to semiconfined aquifer overlies a confined aquifer in the southwestern part of the study area; these aquifers are separated by the lacustrine Corcoran Clay. A regional-scale 16-layer steady-state model of ground-water flow in the aquifer system in the regional study area was developed to provide boundary conditions for an embedded 110-layer steady-state local-scale model of part of the aquifer system overlying the Corcoran Clay along the Merced River. The purpose of the local-scale model was to develop a better understanding of the aquifer system and to provide a basis for simulation of reactive transport of agricultural chemicals. The heterogeneity of aquifer materials was explicitly incorporated into the regional and local models using information from geologic and drillers? logs of boreholes. Aquifer materials were differentiated in the regional model by the percentage of coarse-grained sediments in a cell, and in the local model by four hydrofacies (sand, silty sand, silt, and clay). The calibrated horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of the coarse-grained materials in the zone above the Corcoran Clay in the regional model and of the sand hydrofacies used in the local model were about equal (30?80 m/d [meter per day]), and the vertical hydraulic conductivity values in the same zone of the regional model (median of 0.012 m/d), which is dominated by the finer-grained materials, were about an order of magnitude less than that for the clay hydrofacies in the local model. Data used for calibrating both models included long-term hourly water-level measurements in 20 short-screened wells installed by the USGS in the Modesto and Merced River areas. Additional calibration data for the regional model included water-level measurements in 11 wells upslope and 17 wells downslope from these areas. The root mean square error was 2.3 m (meter) for all wells in the regional model and 0.8 m for only the USGS wells; the associated average errors were 0.9 m and 0.3 m, respectively. The root mean square error for the 12 USGS wells along a transect in the local model area was 0.08 m; the average error was 0.0 m. Particle tracking was used with the local model to estimate the concentration of an environmental tracer, sulfur hexafluoride, in 10 USGS transect wells near the Merced River that were sampled for this constituent. Measured and estimated concentrations in the mid-depth and deepest wells, which would be most sensitive to errors in hydraulic conductivity estimates, were consistent. The combined results of particle tracking and sulfur hexafluoride analysis suggest that most water sampled from the transect wells was recharged less that 25 years ago.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments

The coastal zone of the United States is a dynamic environment evolving in response to both natural processes and human activities. In order to protect coastal populations and resources, a detailed understanding of the physical setting and of the processes responsible for change is required. A sustained program of mapping coastal areas provides a means to establish baseline conditions, document change, and, in conjunction with models of physical processes, predict future behavior. Recent advances in mapping technology, including airborne lidars and hyperspectral imagers, allow for the rapid collection of high-resolution elevation data and land use information on a national scale. These rich data sets are critical to evaluating risk associated with coastal hazards, such as flooding during extreme storms. For example, coastal elevation data is a fundamental parameter in storm surge models that predict where flooding will occur, and land use maps serve as the foundation of assessments that identify the resources and populations that are most vulnerable. A comprehensive, national coastal mapping plan that is designed to collect, manage, and distribute these data, as well as to take advantage of recent progress in mapping technology, will provide a wealth of information for studying the processes of physical change, for determining areas vulnerable to coastal hazards, and for protecting and managing our coastal communities and resources.

Marine Technology Society Journal↗

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗

U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative-2010 Annual Report

This is the third report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. The first report described activities for 2007 and 2008, and the second report covered work activities for FY09. This third report covers work activities conducted in FY2010, and it continues the 2009 approach of reporting on all the individual activities to help give WLCI partners and other readers the full scope of what has been accomplished. New in this year's report is an additional section for each work activity that outlines the work planned for the following fiscal year. In FY2010, there were 35 ongoing/expanded, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis; (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research; (3) Data and Information Management; (4) Integration and Coordination; and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. The three new work activities were to (1) compile existing water data for the entire WLCI region and (2) develop regional curves (statistical models) for relating bankfull-channel geometry and discharge to drainages in the WLCI region, both of which will help guide long-term monitoring of water resources; and (3) initiate a groundwater-monitoring network to evaluate potential effects of energy-development activities on groundwater quality where groundwater is an important source of public/private water supplies. Results of the FY2009 work to develop methods for assessing soil organic matter and mercury indicated that selenium and arsenic levels may be elevated in the Muddy Creek Basin; thus, the focus of that activity was shifted in FY2010 to evaluate biogeochemical cycling of elements in the basin. In FY2010, two ongoing activities were expanded with the addition of more sampling plots: (a) the study of how greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) use vegetation-treatment areas (sites added to the Moxa Arch Natural Gas Development area) and (2) the study of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) occurrence in burn treatments of the Little Mountain Ecosystem. The activity that entails evaluating relationships between ungulate herbivory and fire on aspen (Populus tremuloides) recruitment also was expanded to include relationships between stand characteristics of and herbivory on aspen in various ecohydrological settings. The USGS continued compiling data and developing geospatial products from all of its WLCI activities to support (1) ranking and prioritizing of proposed conservation projects, (2) developing the WLCI Integrated Assessment, and (3) developing the WLCI 5-year Conservation Action Plan. Two activities were completed in FY2010: (1) the conceptual modeling and indicator selection for monitoring resource conditions across the WLCI region, and (2) the literature review on effects of oil and gas development in western regions of the United States, both of which are in the last stages of publication.

Open-File Report↗

Assessing conservation and management actions with ecosystem services better communicates conservation value to the public

Fish and wildlife populations are under unprecedented threats from changes in land use and climate. With increasing threats comes a need for an expanded constituency that can contribute to the public support and financial capital needed for habitat conservation and management. Using an ecosystem services approach can provide a framework for a more holistic accounting of conservation benefits. Our objective here is to provide a greater understanding of the role that taking an ecosystem services approach can have in expanding the public constituency that supports the use of financial capital required to conserve and manage the nation’s natural capital. To demonstrate a methodology and the usefulness of taking an ecosystem services approach when communicating the value of conserving and managing fish and wildlife habitats, we performed an evaluation of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned Waterfowl Production Areas, National Wildlife Refuges, and easement lands (both wetland and grassland) in Stutsman County, North Dakota. We quantified amphibian habitat, grassland bird habitat, floral resources for pollinators, and carbon storage services under various scenarios of conservation. While we did not include all possible ecosystem services in our model, our case study shows how this process can provide a more complete picture of the collateral benefits of conservation directed primarily toward waterfowl. Using this ecosystem services approach, we documented marked losses in all services modeled if current conservation lands were developed for the production of agricultural crops. By having access to a more complete picture of benefits provided by conservation lands, decision makers can better communicate their value. By garnering greater public support through a more accurate accounting of societal benefits, conservation and management of dwindling natural capital may someday attain the same level of thought and consideration that is put into the conservation and management of the nation’s financial capital.

North Dakota↗

Connecting dryland fine-fuel assessments to wildfire exposure and natural resource values at risk

Background Wildland fire in arid and semi-arid (dryland) regions can intensify when climatic, biophysical, and land-use factors increase fuel load and continuity. To inform wildland fire management under these conditions, we developed high-resolution (10-m) estimates of fine fuel across the Altar Valley in southern Arizona, USA, which spans dryland, grass-dominated ecosystems that are administered by multiple land managers and owners. We coupled field measurements at the end of the 2021 growing season with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and vegetation indices acquired during and after the growing season to develop predictions of fine fuel across the entire valley. We then assessed how climate, soil, vegetation, and land-use factors influenced the amount and distribution of fine fuels. We connected fine fuels to fire management points, past ignition history, and socio-economic vulnerability to evaluate wildfire exposure and assessed how fuel related to habitat of the endangered masked bobwhite quail ( Colinus virginianus ridgwayi ). Results The high amount of fine fuel (400–3600 kg/ha; mean = 1392 kg/ha) predicted by our remote sensing model ( R 2 = 0.63) for 2021 compared to previous years in the valley was stimulated by near-record high growing season precipitation that was 177% of the 1990–2020 mean. Fine fuel increased across the valley if it was contained within the wildlife refuge boundary and had lower temperature and vapor pressure deficit, higher soil organic content, and abundant annual plants and an invasive perennial grass ( R 2 = 0.24). The index of potential exposure to wildfire showed a clustering of high exposure centered around roads and low-density housing development distant from fire management points and extending into the upper elevations flanking the valley. Within the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, fine fuel increased with habitat suitability for the masked bobwhite quail within and adjacent to core habitat areas, representing a natural resource value at risk, accompanied with higher overall mean fine fuel (1672 kg/ha) in relation to 2015 (1347 kg/ha) and 2020 (1363 kg/ha) means. Conclusions By connecting high-resolution estimates of fine fuel to climatic, biophysical and land-use factors, wildfire exposure, and a natural resource value at risk, we provide a pro-active and adaptive framework for fire risk management within highly variable and rapidly changing dryland landscapes.

Arizona↗

Update of the 2008 provisional Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) assessment for the Great Basin, USA

In response to the Energy Act of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) resource assessment for the Great Basin, USA. The previous 2008 provisional assessment estimated how much electricity could be generated from EGS resources of the western United States using models of electric-grade heat, models of heat extraction over time, and estimates of how much rock might be stimulated to produce viable amounts of heat. Herein, a similar conceptual strategy is applied, using updated models of heat extraction as a function of fracture spacing and well distance. Previously used reservoir heat delivery models are updated to have a dependence on fracture and well spacing, potentially improving future estimates of EGS resources as ongoing research provides a better understanding about the success of reservoir stimulation as a function of geology and location. For a range of well distances (250-1000 m) and fracture spacings (1-50 m), heat extraction efficiency ranges from 25-62%, demonstrating the importance of accounting for the most likely results of proven viable fracturing technologies. Although fracturing is important, the biggest uncertainty by far in estimating the EGS resource for the Great Basin is estimating which geologic units at what depths can be stimulated sufficiently to produce geothermal energy economically and efficiently. Uncertainties in these factors yield estimates that range over two orders of magnitude with an upper limit of ~174 terawatts-thermal (TWth) produced for 30 years from the upper 7 km of the crust. This upper limit would require significant technological advances to access most of the electric-grade resource across the Great Basin. Assuming that 1% of this estimate will be accessible in the next few decades gives a resource estimate similar to that made in the 2008 provisional assessment. These estimated EGS heat extraction rates far exceed ( greater than 100x) the natural geothermal heat production rate, thus geothermal electricity production at these rates might not be sustainable unless heat is also recharged from other sources (e.g., excess solar energy when supply exceeds demand). In addition to assessment maps and cumulative estimates, the new models of fractured reservoirs developed herein can be used to estimate steady power production given a set of fractures and well spacing, and estimates can be made for setback distances to ensure no thermal interference with nearby powerplants.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

Living on the edge: Opportunities for Amur tiger recovery in China

Sporadic sightings of the endangered Amur tiger Panthera tigris altaica along the China-Russia border during the late 1990s sparked efforts to expand this subspecies distribution and abundance by restoring potentially suitable habitats in the Changbai Mountains. To guide science-based recovery efforts and provide a baseline for future monitoring of this border population, empirical, quantitative information is needed on what resources and management practices promote or limit the occurrence of tigers in the region. We established a large-scale field camera-trapping network to estimate tiger density, survival and recruitment in the Hunchun Nature Reserve and the surrounding area using an open population spatially explicit capture-recapture model. We then fitted an occupancy model that accounted for detectability and spatial autocorrelation to assess the relative influence of habitat, major prey, disturbance and management on tiger habitat use patterns. Our results show that the ranges of most tigers abut the border with Russia. Tiger densities ranged between 0.20 and 0.27 individuals/100 km2 over the study area; in the Hunchun Nature Reserve, the tiger density was three times higher than that in the surrounding inland forested area. Tiger occupancy was strongly negatively related to heavy cattle grazing, human settlements and roads and was positively associated with sika deer abundance and vegetation cover. These findings can help to identify the drivers of tiger declines and dispersal limits and refine strategies for tiger conservation in the human-dominated transboundary landscape. Progressively alleviating the impacts of cattle and human disturbances on the forest, and simultaneously addressing the economic needs of local communities, should be key priority actions to increase tiger populations. The long-term goal is to expand tiger distribution by improving habitats for large ungulates.

Jilin Province↗

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

VS2DRTI: Simulating heat and reactive solute transport in variably saturated porous media

Variably saturated groundwater flow, heat transport, and solute transport are important processes in environmental phenomena, such as the natural evolution of water chemistry of aquifers and streams, the storage of radioactive waste in a geologic repository, the contamination of water resources from acid-rock drainage, and the geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. Up to now, our ability to simulate these processes simultaneously with fully coupled reactive transport models has been limited to complex and often difficult-to-use models. To address the need for a simple and easy-to-use model, the VS2DRTI software package has been developed for simulating water flow, heat transport, and reactive solute transport through variably saturated porous media. The underlying numerical model, VS2DRT, was created by coupling the flow and transport capabilities of the VS2DT and VS2DH models with the equilibrium and kinetic reaction capabilities of PhreeqcRM. Flow capabilities include two-dimensional, constant-density, variably saturated flow; transport capabilities include both heat and multicomponent solute transport; and the reaction capabilities are a complete implementation of geochemical reactions of PHREEQC. The graphical user interface includes a preprocessor for building simulations and a postprocessor for visual display of simulation results. To demonstrate the simulation of multiple processes, the model is applied to a hypothetical example of injection of heated waste water to an aquifer with temperature-dependent cation exchange. VS2DRTI is freely available public domain software.

Groundwater↗

Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)

The NE CASC boasts an interdisciplinary array of scientists, from ecologists to biologists, hydrologists to climatologists, each contributing new, original academic research to advance our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildlife and other natural resources in the Northeast. Needed was an outreach specialist who would interface directly with the management agencies who benefited from this research to aid the integration of this research into their management planning as part of adapting to climate change. A climatologist was preferred to address queries about climate modeling, climate change uncertainties, and other areas of climate science outside the expertise of NE CASC ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists. This person’s activities would include responding to inquiries, presenting climate science concepts at management workshops, gathering managers’ climate science needs, contributing to the climate portion of synthesis reports and other resources for managers, and collaborating with ecologists on interdisciplinary studies of climate change by providing climate data and guidance on interpretation. The objective was to relay and interpret the scientific findings most relevant to managers’ resources of concern and management activities around those resources to guide adjustments to their activities toward better protecting their resources of concern. As an outcome, managers often relied on synthesized climate science to be able to consider how climate trends affect their work, especially those thinking about climate change for the first time in the context of their work. This lays the groundwork for more detailed management-driven science delivery that can aid eventual implementation. Management groups reached by this project include land managers with the National Park Service, state fish and game departments and DNRs, and tribal environmental coordinators.

Report↗

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

Consistent and reliable sediment data are needed by Federal, State, and local government agencies responsible for monitoring water quality, planning river restoration, quantifying sediment budgets, and evaluating the effectiveness of sediment reduction strategies. Heightened concerns about excessive sediment in rivers and the challenge to reduce costs and eliminate data gaps has guided Federal and State interests in pursuing alternative methods for measuring suspended and bedload sediment. Simple and dependable data collection and estimation techniques are needed to generate hydraulic and water-quality information for areas where data are unavailable or difficult to collect. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed a study to evaluate the use of dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) to accurately predict suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs), bedload, and annual sediment loads for selected rivers and streams in Minnesota based on data collected during 2007 through 2013. This study included the application of DSRC models developed for a small group of streams located in the San Juan River Basin near Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado to rivers in Minnesota. Regionally based DSRC models for Minnesota also were developed and compared to DSRC models from Pagosa Springs, Colorado, to evaluate which model provided more accurate predictions of SSCs and bedload in Minnesota. Multiple measures of goodness-of-fit were developed to assess the effectiveness of DSRC models in predicting SSC and bedload for rivers in Minnesota. More than 600 dimensionless ratio values of SSC, bedload, and streamflow were evaluated and delineated according to Pfankuch stream stability categories of “good/fair” and “poor” to develop four Minnesota-based DSRC models. The basis for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota DSRC model effectiveness was founded on measures of goodness-of-fit that included proximity of the model(s) fitted line to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the site-specific model, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, model biases, and deviation of annual sediment loads from each model to the annual sediment loads calculated from measured data. Composite plots comparing Pagosa Springs DSRCs, Minnesota DSRCs, site-specific regression models, and measured data indicated that regionally developed DSRCs (Minnesota DSRC models) more closely approximated measured data for nearly every site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models had markedly larger exponents (slopes) when compared to the Minnesota DSRC models and the site-specific regression models, and over-represent SSC and bedload at streamflows exceeding bankfull. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for the Minnesota DSRC model for suspended-sediment concentrations closely matched Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of the site-specific regression models for 12 out of 16 sites. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values associated with Minnesota DSRCs were greater than those associated with Pagosa Springs DSRCs for every site except the Whitewater River near Beaver, Minnesota site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models were less accurate than the mean of the measured data at predicting SSC values for one-half of the sites for good/fair stability sites and one-half of the sites for poor stability sites. Relative model biases were calculated and determined to be substantial (greater than 5 percent) for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota models, with Minnesota models having a lower mean model bias. For predicted annual suspended-sediment loads (SSL), the Minnesota DSRC models for good/fair and poor stream stability sites more closely approximated the annual SSLs calculated from the measured data as compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC model. Results of data analyses indicate that DSRC models developed using data collected in Minnesota were more effective at compensating for differences in individual stream characteristics across a variety of basin sizes and flow regimes than DSRC models developed using data collected for Pagosa Springs, Colorado. Minnesota DSRC models retained a substantial portion of the unique sediment signatures for most rivers, although deviations were observed for streams with limited sediment supply and for rivers in southeastern Minnesota, which had markedly larger regression exponents. Compared to Pagosa Springs DSRC models, Minnesota DSRC models had regression slopes that more closely matched the slopes of site-specific regression models, had greater Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, had lower model biases, and approximated measured annual sediment loads more closely. The results presented in this report indicate that regionally based DSRCs can be used to estimate reasonably accurate values of SSC and bedload. Practitioners are cautioned that DSRC reliability is dependent on representative measures of bankfull streamflow, SSC, and bedload. It is, therefore, important that samples of SSC and bedload, which will be used for estimating SSC and bedload at the bankfull streamflow, are collected over a range of conditions that includes the ascending and descending limbs of the event hydrograph. The use of DSRC models may have substantial limitations for certain conditions. For example, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC and sediment loads for extreme streamflows, such as those that exceed twice the bankfull streamflow value because this constitutes conditions beyond the realm of current (2016) empirical modeling capability. Also, if relations between SSC and streamflow and between bedload and streamflow are not statistically significant, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC or bedload, as this could result in large errors. For streams that do not violate these conditions, DSRC estimates of SSC and bedload can be used for stream restoration planning and design, and for estimating annual sediment loads for streams where little or no sediment data are available.

Minnesota↗

Abiotic raw-materials in life cycle impact assessments: An emerging consensus across disciplines

This paper captures some of the emerging consensus points that came out of the workshop “Mineral Resources in Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Mapping the path forward”, held at the Natural History Museum London on 14 October 2015: that current practices rely in many instances on obsolete data, often confuse resource depletion with impacts on resource availability, which can therefore provide inconsistent decision support and lead to misguided claims about environmental performance. Participants agreed it would be helpful to clarify which models estimate depletion and which estimate availability, so that results can be correctly reported in the most appropriate framework. Most participants suggested that resource availability will be more meaningfully addressed within a comprehensive Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment framework rather than limited to an environmental Life Cycle Assessment or Footprint. Presentations from each of the authors are available for download.

Resources↗

Compilation of geohydrologic data collected as part of the areal appraisal of ground-water resources near Branson, Missouri

A rapidly developing retirement community and tourist industry in the Branson, Missouri area has created an increased demand for potable water, especially in the summer months. The rapid pace of residential and business expansion has created concerns regarding the future groundwater availability and quality. Water levels measured in the Ozark aquifer during the summer of 1988 and March 1989 show water levels increasing in 22 wells, decreasing in 2 wells, and remaining the same in 1 well. The water level increases ranged from 1 to 111 ft. These measurements and similar measurements during the summer of 1989 will be used to calibrate a three-dimensional model of groundwater flow in the Branson area and estimate the long-term effect of large groundwater withdrawals during the summer tourist season. A reconnaissance of water quality in 34 wells that are open to the Ozark aquifer shows specific conductance ranging from 347 to 841 microsiemens/cm at 25 C and no fecal coliform bacteria present in any well. Chloride and nitrate concentrations in all wells were well below the Missouri Department of Natural Resources recommended maximum concentrations of 250 mg/L and 10 mg/L, respectively. Analysis of 5 water samples for 33 volatile organic compounds failed to detect any concentrations in excess of the detection limits. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Near-surface geophysics: Environmental applications

The field of geophysics encompasses a broad and diverse compilation of methodologies that employs principles of physics to characterize properties of earth materials within the subsurface. While geophysical methods have a long history in resource exploration and studies of Earth’s interior, the subdiscipline of “near-surface geophysics” has evolved in recent decades for examination of the shallow, near-surface environment for a range of purposes ranging from archaeological or forensic investigations to assessment of geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and geochemical properties and processes. “Environmental geophysics” are near-surface geophysical studies and methods that focus on understanding natural systems (e.g., watershed hydrology, groundwater–surface water connections, biophysical processes) as well as research pertaining to anthropogenic impacts and land management, (e.g., contamination and remediation, saltwater intrusion, agricultural practices). This field can be further subdivided into subdisciplines focused on specific topics and applications, such as water resources and hydrology (hydrogeophysics) or biologic and microbial processes (biogeophysics). Studies in environmental geophysics span a range of scales, from pore-scale laboratory tests to watershed-scale or regional field experiments. Methods vary by the nature of physics employed, the specific measurement acquired, and how that data is ultimately processed and analyzed to produce interpretable results. There exists further diversity in the acquisition logistics, geometry, and timing of data collection. Geophysical data can be collected in boreholes (one-dimensional, 1-D, vertical profiles), along survey lines (two-dimensional, 2-D, cross-sections), or in dense sensor arrays or gridded profiles (three-dimensional, 3-D, models). Regarding the temporal aspect, studies can conduct one-time geophysical surveys to obtain detailed imaging of subsurface structure or use timelapse and continuous monitoring to investigate variations in subsurface properties over time. The cumulation of all possible permutations of these factors (method, acquisition geometry, survey design, and target application) results in an immense diversity among environmental geophysical studies. Nevertheless, this field remains unified in the pursuit of understanding natural and human-impacted near-surface environments through geophysical investigations. Here we highlight some key references within environmental geophysics. Resources on geophysical theory, acquisition logistics, processing and inversion workflows, and example case studies are categorized into the most common geophysical classes within Geophysical Methods. Lastly, example references for the dominant types of applications in environmental geophysical studies are catalogued in Environmental Applications.

Book chapter↗

Linear and landscape disturbances alter Mojave desert tortoise movement behavior

Introduction: Animal movements are influenced by landscape features; disturbances to the landscape can alter movements, dispersal, and ultimately connectivity among populations. Faster or longer movements adjacent to a localized disturbance or within disturbed areas could indicate reduced habitat quality whereas slower or shorter movements and reduced movements may indicate greater availability of resources. The Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) is a threatened species that is challenged by anthropogenic disturbances. Methods: We studied tortoise movements using Global Positioning System (GPS) loggers at multiple sites in the Mojave Desert of Nevada and California. Tortoises at our sites encountered localized, linear human infrastructure, including paved roads, dirt roads, and fences, as well as landscape-scale disturbances [wildfire, off highway vehicle use (OHV), livestock grazing area]. We fit two-state (moving and encamped) Hidden Markov models to GPS logger data to infer how tortoise movement behavior relates to anthropogenic and natural features. Results: We found that temporal covariates, individual-level random effects (intercepts), and sex best explained state transition probability in all sites. We compared relationships between tortoise movement and linear disturbances, which varied depending on site and context. Tortoises made longer movements within the OHV recreation area, near most dirt roads, and near a low-traffic paved road, indicating that tortoises avoid these habitat disturbances. Conversely, tortoises made shorter movements in areas of higher slope and near highways, suggesting that these features may restrict movement or provide resources that result in prolonged use (e.g., forage or drinking locations). Tortoises that encountered fences around utility-scale solar installations were more active and made longer movements near fences, indicative of pacing behavior. Discussion: These results provide insight into how different disturbances alter tortoise movement behavior and modify tortoise habitat use, providing information that can be used to manage tortoise habitat.

California, Nevada↗

Expanding metal mixture toxicity models to natural stream and lake invertebrate communities

A modeling approach that was used to predict the toxicity of dissolved single and multiple metals to trout is extended to stream benthic macroinvertebrates, freshwater zooplankton, and Daphnia magna . The approach predicts the accumulation of toxicants (H, Al, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in organisms using 3 equilibrium accumulation models that define interactions between dissolved cations and biological receptors (biotic ligands). These models differ in the structure of the receptors and include a 2-site biotic ligand model, a bidentate biotic ligand or 2-pKa model, and a humic acid model. The predicted accumulation of toxicants is weighted using toxicant-specific coefficients and incorporated into a toxicity function called Tox, which is then related to observed mortality or invertebrate community richness using a logistic equation. All accumulation models provide reasonable fits to metal concentrations in tissue samples of stream invertebrates. Despite the good fits, distinct differences in the magnitude of toxicant accumulation and biotic ligand speciation exist among the models for a given solution composition. However, predicted biological responses are similar among the models because there are interdependencies among model parameters in the accumulation–Tox models. To illustrate potential applications of the approaches, the 3 accumulation–Tox models for natural stream invertebrates are used in Monte Carlo simulations to predict the probability of adverse impacts in catchments of differing geology in central Colorado (USA); to link geology, water chemistry, and biological response; and to demonstrate how this approach can be used to screen for potential risks associated with resource development.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗