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USGS2025

Using imaging spectroscopy and elevation in machine learning to estimate soil salinity in intermittently tidal wetlands

Coastal soil salinization patterns are changing due to drought, sea level rise (SLR), and changing freshwater inflow. These changes are expected to impact coastal wetland plant health and ecosystem function, such as changes to biomass and productivity. These impacts have led to greater interest in how we monitor soil salinization across spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing is a promising tool for estimating soil salinity at the spatial scales required for decision making by land managers. However, the development of a remote sensing estimation approach for wetland soil salinity must account for two factors: (1) the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of coastal wetlands and (2) the fact that soil salinity is the result of multiple historical land use, hydrological, and geomorphic processes. In spring 2022, a combined airborne-field campaign, known as SHIFT, collected a weekly time series of airborne visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) image spectroscopy data. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to assess the application of fine spatial (5 m) and temporal (weekly) resolution VSWIR data to estimate root zone soil salinity; when combined with environmental variables such as elevation, these data can account for some of these factors. In this study, we utilized VSWIR and elevation datasets in a random forest regression to predict and map soil salinity in an intermittently tidal estuary, Devereux Slough, located in Santa Barbara County, California. The final model combined spectral indices with elevation to better capture soil salinity dynamics despite lower correlation ( r = 0.85) than solely using elevation ( r = 0.92). This research demonstrates the utility of remote sensing datasets, namely, elevation and the modified Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (mARI), for predicting root zone soil salinity in intermittently tidal coastal wetlands. These findings are an important step in advancing coastal remote sensing by creating a gridded salinity dataset that can be used for salinity monitoring and other coastal applications, such as modeling change in vegetation communities or ecosystems facing the impacts of climatic variability and change.

California↗

USGS2018

Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

Climate change is rapidly altering the global water cycle, exposing vulnerabilities in both social and environmental systems. However, uncertainty in future climate predictions makes it difficult to design and evaluate strategies for building climate resilience. In regions such as California, characterized by stressed water-supply systems, high natural climate variability, and substantial uncertainty in future precipitation projections, alternative approaches to assessing climate risks may be useful. Here, we develop a hydrologic sensitivity approach to estimate regional streamflow responses to climate change in California. We use statistical models to predict monthly streamflow from physical catchment features and evaluate how flow changes with incremental changes in precipitation and temperature. The results indicate unique regional and monthly flow responses to climate change, with early summer flows (May - July) in interior mountain region having the greatest sensitivity to temperature and winter flow (December - March) in the xeric region having the greatest sensitivity to precipitation. When evaluated over the range of global climate model projections for mid-century (2040-2069), models generally suggest shifts in streamflow regimes towards higher wet season flows and lower dry season flows relative to historical conditions. The sensitivity analysis provides insight into catchment- and regional-scale hydrologic responses in California and complements other approaches for understanding the consequences of climatic change for water and risk management.

California↗

USGS2013

Environmental correlates of upstream migration of yellow-phase American eels in the Potomac River drainage

Assessing the relationships between upstream migration and environmental variables is important to understanding the ecology of yellow-phase American Eels Anguilla rostrata . During an American Eel migration study within the lower Shenandoah River (Potomac River drainage), we counted and measured American Eels at the Millville Dam eel ladder for three periods: 14 May–23 July 2004, 7–30 September 2004, and 1 June–31 July 2005. Using generalized estimating equations, we modeled each time series of daily American Eel counts by fitting time-varying environmental covariates of lunar illumination (LI), river discharge (RD), and water temperature (WT), including 1-d and 2-d lags of each covariate. Information-theoretic approaches were used for model selection and inference. A total of 4,847 American Eels (19–74 cm total length) used the ladder during the three periods, including 2,622 individuals during a 2-d span following a hurricane-induced peak in river discharge. Additive-effects models of RD + WT, a 2-d lag of LI + RD, and LI + RD were supported for the three periods, respectively. Parameter estimates were positive for river discharge for each time period, negative for lunar illumination for two periods and positive for water temperature during one period. Additive-effects models supported synergistic influences of environmental variables on the upstream migration of yellow-phase American Eels, although river discharge was consistently supported as an influential correlate of upstream migration.

Maryland↗

USGS2005

Urbanization effects on fishes and habitat quality in a southern Piedmont river basin

We quantified the relationships among urban land cover, fishes, and habitat quality to determine how fish assemblages respond to urbanization and if a habitat index can be used as an indirect measure of urban effects on stream ecosystems. We sampled 30 wadeable streams along an urban gradient (5?37% urban land cover) in the Etowah River basin, Georgia. Fish assemblages, sampled by electrofishing standardized stream reaches, were assessed using species richness, density, and species composition metrics. Habitat quality was scored using the Rapid Habitat Assessment Protocol (RHAP) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Urban land cover (including total, high-, and low-density urban) was estimated for the drainage basin above each reach. A previous study of these sites indicated that stream slope and basin area were strongly related to local variation in assemblage structure. We used multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to account for this variation and isolate the urban effect on fishes. The MLR models indicated that urbanization lowered species richness and density and led to predictable changes in species composition. Darters and sculpin, cyprinids, and endemics declined along the urban gradient whereas centrarchids persisted and became the dominant group. The RHAP was not a suitable indicator of urban effects because RHAP-urban relationships were confounded by an overriding influence of stream slope on RHAP scores, and urban-related changes in fish assemblage structure preceded gross changes in stream habitat quality. Regression analysis indicated that urban effects on fishes accrue rapidly (<10 years) and are detectable at low levels (~5?10% urbanization). We predict that the decline of endemics and other species will continue and centrarchid-dominated streams will become more common as development proceeds within the Etowah basin.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Satellite assessment of winter cover crop and conservation tillage outcomes to support adaptive management in working landscapes

The use of winter cover crops and conservation tillage are agricultural practices promoted to reduce nutrient and sediment loss from cropland, improve soil health, increase infiltration, and support farm nutrient cycling and ecosystem services. However, environmental performance of these practices is variable in the working farm landscape. The Lower Chesapeake Bay research project within the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network has collaboratively developed satellite remote sensing algorithms to measure the performance and phenology of winter cover crops (aboveground biomass, nitrogen content, fractional cover, and emergence and termination dates) using no-cost Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite imagery. This research supports annual operational assessment of >28,000 fields per year in four states. Results document the impacts of agronomic management on conservation outcomes, support adaptive management of incentive payment structures, and can reduce the workload for conservation district staff by remotely verifying cover crop management. Additionally, super-spectral satellite applications have been developed to accurately map crop residue cover by measuring lignocellulose absorption in shortwave infrared wavelengths, producing a 7-year time series of tillage intensity maps for the Delmarva Peninsula. These remote sensing products can be used in decision support and modeling to estimate changes in nutrient, sediment, and carbon cycling resulting from conservation practice implementation in the working farm landscape. This manuscript provides an overview of remote sensing research findings and applications associated with the USDA LTAR and Conservation Effects Assessment Projects (CEAP), documenting a variety of previously published outcomes with update and expansion of techniques using additional unpublished data and analyses as appropriate.

Maryland↗

USGS2021

Clothianidin decomposition in Missouri wetland soils

Neonicotinoid pesticides can persist in soils for extended time periods; however, they also have a high potential to contaminate ground and surface waters. Studies have reported negative effects associated with neonicotinoids and nontarget taxa, including aquatic invertebrates, pollinating insect species, and insectivorous birds. This study evaluated factors associated with clothianidin (CTN) degradation and sorption in Missouri wetland soils to assess the potential for wetland soils to mitigate potential environmental risks associated with neonicotinoids. Solid-to-solution partition coefficients ( K d ) for CTN sorption to eight wetland soils were determined via single-point sorption experiments, and sorption isotherm experiments were conducted using the two most contrasting soils. Clothianidin degradation was determined under oxic and anoxic conditions over 60 d. Degradation data were fit to zero- and first-order kinetic decay models to determine CTN half-life ( t 0.5 ). Sorption results indicated CTN sorption to wetland soil was relatively weak (average K d , 3.58 L kg –1 ); thus, CTN has the potential to be mobile and bioavailable within wetland soils. However, incubation results showed anoxic conditions significantly increased CTN degradation rates in wetland soils (anoxic average t 0.5 , 27.2 d; oxic average t 0.5 , 149.1 d). A significant negative correlation was observed between anoxic half-life values and soil organic C content ( r 2 = .782; p = .046). Greater CTN degradation rates in wetland soils under anoxic conditions suggest that managing wetlands to facilitate anoxic conditions could mitigate CTN presence in the environment and reduce exposure to nontarget organisms.

Missouri↗

USGS2017

Widespread legacy brine contamination from oil production reduces survival of chorus frog larvae

Advances in drilling techniques have facilitated a rapid increase in hydrocarbon extraction from energy shales, including the Williston Basin in central North America. This area overlaps with the Prairie Pothole Region, a region densely populated with wetlands that provide numerous ecosystem services. Historical (legacy) disposal practices often released saline co-produced waters (brines) with high chloride concentrations, affecting wetland water quality directly or persisting in sediments. Despite the potential threat of brine contamination to aquatic habitats, there has been little research into its ecological effects. We capitalized on a gradient of legacy brine-contaminated wetlands in northeast Montana to conduct laboratory experiments to assess variation in survival of larval Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) reared on sediments from 3 local wetlands and a control source. To help provide environmental context for the experiment, we also measured chloride concentrations in 6 brine-contaminated wetlands in our study area, including the 2 contaminated sites used for sediment exposures. Survival of frog larvae during 46- and 55-day experiments differed by up to 88% among sediment sources (Site Model) and was negatively correlated with potential chloride exposure (Chloride Model). Five of the 6 contaminated wetlands exceeded the U.S. EPA acute benchmark for chloride in freshwater (860 mg/L) and all exceeded the chronic benchmark (230 mg/L). However, the Wetland Site model explained more variation in survival than the Chloride Model, suggesting that chloride concentration alone does not fully reflect the threat of contamination to aquatic species. Because the profiles of brine-contaminated sediments are complex, further surveys and experiments are needed across a broad range of conditions, especially where restoration or remediation actions have reduced brine-contamination. Information provided by this study can help quantify potential ecological threats and help land managers prioritize conservation strategies as part of responsible and sustainable energy development.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2005

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2007

Relations of Environmental Factors with Mussel-Species Richness in the Neversink River, New York

INTRODUCTION Declines in the distribution, abundance, and diversity of freshwater-mussel species (family Unionidae1) have been reported worldwide (Bogan, 1993; Strayer and Jirka, 1997). The principal causes of the observed declines are difficult to confirm, however, because only a few of the many factors that affect mussel-species populations have been identified (Strayer and Ralley, 1993; Strayer, 1999; Baldigo and others, 2003; Strayer and others, 2006). The Neversink River, which drains the Catskill Mountains in southeastern New York (fig. 1), contains seven species of mussels (Strayer and Ralley, 1991; Strayer and Jirka, 1997). Populations of the endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon) and the threatened swollen wedgemussel (Alasmidonta varicosa) coexist with other unionid mussels in the Neversink River (Strayer and Ralley, 1991, 1993; Baldigo and others, 2003). Dwarf wedgemussel populations had previously been found only downstream from the site of an abandoned dam in the lower part of the river at Cuddebackville (fig. 1), and swollen wedgemussels were only found in the lower and middle reaches of the river. The limited distribution of these two species suggests that they may be susceptible to local extinctions. The distribution of mussel populations can be limited by impoundments. Mussel larvae develop in species-specific host fish; thus, impoundments that restrict passage of these host fish also restrict the extent of mussels. The Neversink River is impounded by the Neversink Reservoir [241 square kilometers (km2)], a major source of drinking water for the City of New York, and was also impounded 50 km downstream by the Cuddebackville Dam until 2004, when the latter was removed by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to improve fish passage. The removal of this dam has provided previously unavailable habitat for diadromous and other fish species that act as hosts for rare mussel species. In addition, releases from the Neversink Reservoir that mimic the river?s original flow patterns have recently been proposed by TNC and could benefit the established mussel populations and aquatic communities. The ability to protect mussel populations and the potential to increase mussel richness in the Neversink River is unknown, however, because the environmental factors that affect the seven mussel species are poorly defined, and the distribution of mussel beds is patchy and thus difficult to quantify. In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with TNC, began a 6-year study along the Neversink River and its tributaries to (1) document the current distribution of each mussel species, (2) assess environmental factors in relation to mussel-species richness and distribution, and (3) identify the factors that most strongly affect mussel populations and develop an equation that relates environmental factors to mussel-species richness. This report (a) summarizes the methods used to quantify or qualify environmental factors and mussel-species distribution and abundance, (b) presents a list of environmental factors that were correlated with mussel-species richness, and (c) offers an empirical model to predict richness of mussel species in benthic communities throughout the basin.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2000

Time of travel of solutes in Buffalo Bayou and selected tributaries, Houston, Texas, August 1999

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, conducted a time-of-travel study in the Buffalo Bayou watershed during low flow in August 1999. The study was done as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Monitoring for Public Access and Community Tracking (EMPACT) program. The EMPACT program was designed for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to work with communities to “make timely, accurate, and understandable environmental information available to millions of people in the largest metropolitan areas across the country.” (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000). Buffalo Bayou, located in Houston, Texas, was chosen as a pilot project because it is a frequently used recreational water source, it has many water-treatment facilities located along its stream segments, and it has a history of water-quality problems (Houston-Galveston Area Council, 2000). One component of the pilot project is to develop a water-quality simulation model that can be used to assess the effects of noncompliance events on Buffalo Bayou. Because accurate estimates of time of travel during low flow are required to develop the model, the time of travel of solutes in Buffalo Bayou and selected tributaries was determined using dye tracing methods. The study was conducted during low flow in a 38.7-mile reach of Buffalo Bayou, a 9.6-mile reach of Whiteoak Bayou, a 5.9-mile reach of Mason Creek, and a 6.6-mile reach of Bear Creek. Efforts to determine the time of travel in a 7.5-mile reach of Horsepen Creek were unsuccessful. This report explains the approach used to conduct the study and presents the results of the study

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Try, try again: Lessons learned from success and failure in participatory modeling

Participatory Modeling (PM) is becoming increasingly common in environmental planning and conservation, due in part to advances in cyberinfrastructure as well as to greater recognition of the importance of engaging a diverse array of stakeholders in decision making. We provide lessons learned, based on over 200 years of the authors’ cumulative and diverse experience, about PM processes. These include successful and, perhaps more importantly, not-so-successful trials. Our collective interdisciplinary background has supported the development, testing, and evaluation of a rich range of collaborative modeling approaches. We share here what we have learned as a community of participatory modelers, within three categories of reflection: a) lessons learned about participatory modelers; b) lessons learned about the context of collaboration; and c) lessons learned about the PM process. First, successful PM teams encompass a variety of skills beyond modeling expertise. Skills include: effective relationship-building, openness to learn from local experts, awareness of personal motivations and biases, and ability to translate discussions into models and to assess success. Second, the context for collaboration necessitates a culturally appropriate process for knowledge generation and use, for involvement of community co-leads, and for understanding group power dynamics that might influence how people from different backgrounds interact. Finally, knowing when to use PM and when not to, managing expectations, and effectively and equitably addressing conflicts is essential. Managing the participation process in PM is as important as managing the model building process. We recommend that PM teams consider what skills are present within a team, while ensuring inclusive creative space for collaborative exploration and learning supported by simple yet relevant models. With a realistic view of what it entails, PM can be a powerful approach that builds collective knowledge and social capital, thus helping communities to take charge of their future and address complex social and environmental problems.

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene↗

USGS2024

Application of a workflow to determine the feasibility of using simulated streamflow for estimation of streamflow frequency statistics

Streamflow records from hydrologic models are attractive for use in operational hydrology, such as a streamflow frequency analysis. The amount of bias inherent to simulated streamflow from hydrologic models is often unknown, but it is likely present in derivative products. Therefore, a workflow may help determine where streamflow frequency analysis is credibly feasible from simulated streamflow and allow for a systematic way to assess and correct for bias. The proposed workflow consists of hydrologically matching model output locations with streamflow-gauging station (stream gauge) locations, computing the desired statistic from the simulated and observed streamflow record, computing the differences between the simulated and observed statistic (i.e., the bias), and constructing generalized additive models (GAMs) from the differences to determine bias corrections. The US Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council and the US Environmental Protection Agency, is testing the proposed workflow on a low-streamflow frequency (LFF) analysis. Simulated streamflows for the LFF analysis were sourced from a machine-learning model that estimated daily streamflow at Level-12 hydrologic unit code (HUC12) pour points (outlets) in the southern and southeastern US for 1950–2010. The comparison data set consists of 497 stream gauges that are coincident with a HUC12 outlet. The simulated LFF statistics were being overestimated on average; thus, there are limits to using simulated streamflow for frequency analysis. The magnitude of the overprediction generally increases where no-flow conditions are common. Bias corrections determined from the GAMs decreased the magnitude of bias observed in the simulated LFF statistics on average, suggesting it is feasible to expand the operational use of simulated streamflows to frequency analyses with the proposed workflow. The proposed workflow could be advantageous to practitioners interested in leveraging existing and future simulated streamflow data sets with regional and or global coverage.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗

USGS2020

Shared functional traits explain synchronous changes in long‐term count trends of migratory raptors

Aim Assessing long‐term shifts in faunal assemblages is important to understand the consequences of ongoing global environmental change. One approach to assess drivers of assemblage changes is to identify the traits associated with synchronous shifts in count trends among species. Our research identified traits influencing trends in 73 years of count data on migrating raptors recorded in the north‐eastern USA. Location Pennsylvania, USA. Time period 1946–2018. Major taxa studied Birds of prey/raptors. Methods Migrating raptors were counted during autumn, following a standardized protocol. We used a hierarchical breakpoint model to identify when count trends shifted and to assess the role of traits in driving these trends before and after the breakpoint. Specifically, we quantified the probability of the direction (PD) of an effect of body mass, habitat or dietary specialization, migratory behaviour and susceptibility to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) on count trends. Results We documented an assemblage‐wide mean shift in count trends of migrating raptors in 1974. In general, species that exhibited negative count trends before the breakpoint exhibited positive count trends afterwards. We found that traits associated with resource use (diet and habitat specialization) had high probabilities of affecting count trends, pre‐ and post‐breakpoint (> 90%). Moreover, the direction of their effects differed during both periods. Unexpectedly, other traits we evaluated, including DDT susceptibility, had relatively weaker associations with count trends. Main conclusions Trait‐based frameworks have promise for testing generalized assumptions about drivers of population trajectories. Historically, DDT was considered a key driver of changes in raptor population trends. However, our analysis suggests that other factors were also relevant. Moreover, the positive association between count trends and generalist behaviour depended on the temporal context. This result has implications for other settings where demographic trends can be linked to traits and help to identify drivers of biodiversity change.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Assessing the relationship between cyanobacteria blooms and respiratory-related hospital visits: Green Bay, Wisconsin 2017–2019

Potential acute and chronic human health effects associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins, including respiratory symptoms, are an understudied public health concern. We examined the relationship between estimated cyanobacteria biomass and the frequency of respiratory-related hospital visits for residents living near Green Bay, Lake Michigan, Wisconsin during 2017–2019. Remote sensing data from the Cyanobacteria Assessment Network was used to approximate cyanobacteria exposure through creation of a metric for cyanobacteria chlorophyll-a (Chl BS ). We obtained counts of hospital visits for asthma, wheezing, and allergic rhinitis from the Wisconsin Hospital Association for ZIP codes within a 3-mile radius of Green Bay. We analyzed weekly counts of hospital visits versus cyanobacteria, which was modelled as a continuous measure (Chl BS ) or categorized according to World Health Organization's (WHO) alert levels using Poisson generalized linear models. Our data included 2743 individual hospital visits and 114 weeks of satellite derived cyanobacteria biomass indicator data. Peak values of Chl BS were observed between the months of June and October. Using the WHO alert levels, 60% of weeks were categorized as no risk, 19% as Vigilance Level, 15% as Alert Level 1, and 6% as Alert Level 2. In Poisson regression models adjusted for temperature, dewpoint, season, and year, there was no association between Chl BS and hospital visits (rate ratio [RR] [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.98 [0.77, 1.24]). There was also no consistent association between WHO alert level and hospital visits when adjusting for covariates (Vigilance Level: RR [95% CI] 0.88 [0.74, 1.05], Alert Level 1: 0.82 [0.67, 0.99], Alert Level 2: 0.98 [0.77, 1.24], compared to the reference no risk category). Our methodology and model provide a template for future studies that assess the association between cyanobacterial blooms and respiratory health.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2026

Composite samples for perfluorooctanesulfonate in fish may change contaminant threshold decisions

The widespread occurrence and persistence of the per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the environment may pose significant health risks to humans. Fish consumption is a direct pathway for exposure, prompting extensive monitoring. In the United States and Europe, fish consumption advisories for PFAS generally focus on perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), the most frequent and abundant PFAS compound reported in fish. However, PFAS analysis is costly, leading monitoring programs to frequently use composite samples (i.e., combining different fish of the same species). This financial saving comes at an analytical cost of lost information on individual variation. It is unclear how this may influence threshold-based decisions. To test this, we used a modeling approach (i.e., Monte Carlo) based on aggregated data distributions from freshwater fish species. We simulated the measurement of PFOS for individual fish compared to composite means (three, five, and 10 fish) at different levels of error structure. These values were then compared to a typical do-not-eat threshold of 200 ng•g wet mass −1 and four metrics were estimated: (i) the probability of detecting a PFOS concentration above the threshold, (ii) the maximum simulated PFOS concentration, (iii) the number of false negative samples, and (iv) the rate of false negative samples. These results show that the probability of assigning PFOS levels above or below the threshold is shifted by masking individual value contributions in a composite sample. Because true individual contaminant loads are variable, composite sampling is a more conservative metric for contaminant thresholds. The model suggested that the greater the variability, the lower the detection probability for truly contaminated samples. Our study may help to inform sampling for monitoring programs aimed at managing human exposure to PFAS.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2013

Measuring the relative resilience of subarctic lakes to global change: redundancies of functions within and across temporal scales

1. Ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global change. We assessed the responses of littoral invertebrate communities to changing abiotic conditions in subarctic Swedish lakes with long-term data (1988–2010) and compared the responses of subarctic lakes with those of more southern, hemiboreal lakes. 2. We used a complex systems approach, based on multivariate time-series modelling, and identified dominant and distinct temporal frequencies in the data; that is, we tracked community change at distinct temporal scales. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across temporal scales. Within and cross-scale distributions of functions have been considered to confer resilience to ecosystems, despite changing environmental conditions. 3. Two patterns of temporal change within the invertebrate communities were identified that were consistent across the lakes. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second was one of showing fluctuation patterns largely unrelated to gradual environmental change. Thus, two dominant and distinct temporal frequencies (temporal scales) were present in all lakes analysed. 4. Although the contribution of individual feeding groups varied between subarctic and hemiboreal lakes, they shared overall similar functional attributes (richness, evenness, diversity) and redundancies of functions within and between the observed temporal scales. This highlights similar resilience characteristics in subarctic and hemiboreal lakes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The effects of global change can be particularly strong at a single scale in ecosystems. Over time, this can cause monotonic change in communities and eventually lead to a loss of important ecosystem services upon reaching a critical threshold. Dynamics at other spatial or temporal scales can be unrelated to environmental change. The relative ‘intactness’ of these scales that are unaffected by global change and the persistence of functions at those scales may safeguard the whole system from the potential loss of functions at the scale at which global change impacts can be substantial. Thus, an understanding of scale-specific processes provides managers with a realistic assessment of vulnerabilities and the relative resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. Explicit consideration of ‘intact’ and ‘affected’ scales in analyses of global change impacts provides opportunities to tailor more specific management plans.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2016

Comparative evaluation of statistical and mechanistic models of Escherichia coli at beaches in southern Lake Michigan

Statistical and mechanistic models are popular tools for predicting the levels of indicator bacteria at recreational beaches. Researchers tend to use one class of model or the other, and it is difficult to generalize statements about their relative performance due to differences in how the models are developed, tested, and used. We describe a cooperative modeling approach for freshwater beaches impacted by point sources in which insights derived from mechanistic modeling were used to further improve the statistical models and vice versa. The statistical models provided a basis for assessing the mechanistic models which were further improved using probability distributions to generate high-resolution time series data at the source, long-term “tracer” transport modeling based on observed electrical conductivity, better assimilation of meteorological data, and the use of unstructured-grids to better resolve nearshore features. This approach resulted in improved models of comparable performance for both classes including a parsimonious statistical model suitable for real-time predictions based on an easily measurable environmental variable (turbidity). The modeling approach outlined here can be used at other sites impacted by point sources and has the potential to improve water quality predictions resulting in more accurate estimates of beach closures.

Lake Michigan, Ogden Dunes↗

USGS2017

A foundation for future assessment and management of groundwater resources

Sequence stratigraphic models for the Pleistocene to Holocene sediments of the Los Angeles (LA) Basin will provide better understanding of regional groundwater flow and have helped identify seawater intrusion pathways into important groundwater aquifers. Because groundwater provides more than one-third of the municipal water supply for the coastal LA Basin, the aquifer architecture of this system is a high priority for groundwater managers. Seismic and sequence stratigraphy are now incorporated into groundwater resource assessments and environmental investigations. By evaluating subsurface data using sequence stratigraphy, the geometry and distribution of aquifer and aquitard sediments are defined, thus groundwater contaminant plumes and sea water intrusion pathways are better understood. The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Los Angeles County Department of Public Works and the Water Replenishment District of Southern California undertook an investigation of the groundwater stratigraphy of the Wilmington – Long Beach area of the LA Basin. Sequence stratigraphic methods were used to integrate preexisting groundwater well data with: (1) new borehole observations, (2) structural and physical properties data derived from geophysical measurements, (3) hi-resolution seismic reflection data obtained offshore of the present shoreline, and (4) vintage oil company exploration seismic reflection data from both onshore and offshore of the shoreline. These data were used to construct a series of Pleistocene to Holocene environment of deposition maps that show the overall progradation of sequences seaward over time. In addition, seawater intrusion pathways into coastal groundwater aquifers were identified and mapped. On a more regional scale, a vintage Texaco seismic reflection data set from the greater LA Basin was interpreted and integrated with a regional network of multi-level ground-water monitoring wells. The sequence stratigraphic correlation shows that many of the defined groundwater aquifers are not correlative. For example, one of the major groundwater supply aquifers, the Silverado Aquifer, when tied to the seismic reflection data has different ages depending on location. This new understanding demonstrates the need for a re-evaluation of the Pleistocene to Holocene stratigraphy using existing seismic reflection data integrated with well data from the LA Basin in order to understand the regional distribution of groundwater aquifers.

Conference Paper↗