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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS1997

The role of mesocosm studies in ecological risk analysis

Mesocosms have been primarily used as research tools for the evaluation of the fate and effects of xenobiotic chemicals at the population, community, and ecosystem levels of biological organization. This paper provides suggestions for future applications of mesocosm research. Attention should be given to the configuration of mesocosm parameters to explicitly study regional questions of ecological interest. The initial physical, chemical, and biological conditions within mesocosms should be considered as factors shaping the final results of experiments. Certain fundamental questions such as the ecological inertia and resilience of systems with different initial ecological properties should be addressed. Researchers should develop closer working relationships with mathematical modelers in linking computer models to the outcomes of mesocosm studies. Mesocosm tests, linked with models, could enable managers and regulators to forecast the regional consequences of chemicals released into the environment.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Recursive Bayesian computation facilitates adaptive optimal design in ecological studies

Optimal design procedures provide a framework to leverage the learning generated by ecological models to flexibly and efficiently deploy future monitoring efforts. At the same time, Bayesian hierarchical models have become widespread in ecology and offer a rich set of tools for ecological learning and inference. However, coupling these methods with an optimal design framework can become computationally intractable. Recursive Bayesian computation offers a way to substantially reduce this computational burden, making optimal design accessible for modern Bayesian ecological models. We demonstrate the application of so-called prior-proposal recursive Bayes to optimal design using a simulated data binary regression and the real-world example of monitoring and modeling sea otters in Glacier Bay, Alaska. These examples highlight the computational gains offered by recursive Bayesian methods and the tighter fusion of monitoring and science that those computational gains enable.

Ecology↗

USGS2019

Selecting a landscape model for natural resource management applications

Purpose of Review: Climate change and associated ecological impacts have challenged many conventional, observation-based approaches for predicting ecosystem and landscape responses to natural resource management. Complex spatial ecological models provide powerful, flexible tools which managers and others can use to make inferences about management impacts on future, no-analog landscape conditions. However, land managers who wish to use ecosystem and landscape models for natural resource applications are faced with the difficult task of deciding among many models that differ in important ways. Here, we summarize a process to aid managers in the selection of an appropriate model for natural resource management. Recent Findings: To guide management planning, scientifically credible information on how landscapes will respond to management actions under changing climate is required. Landscape models are increasingly used in a management context to evaluate of impacts of changing climate and interacting stressors on ecosystems and to test effects of alternative management options on desired conditions. However, the wide range of available models makes selection of appropriate and viable models a complex process. Summary: We present a series of preliminary steps to define critical scales of time, space, and ecological organization to guide an experimental design for a modeling project and then list a set of criteria for selecting a landscape or ecological model. Material presented includes the preliminary steps (crafting modeling objective, designing modeling project), organizational concerns (resources available, expertise on hand, timelines), and modeling details (complexity, design, documentation) of model selection.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗

USGS1994

Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

Ecology↗

USGS2024

Propagating observation errors to enable scalable and rigorous enumeration of plant population abundance with aerial imagery

Estimating and monitoring plant population size is fundamental for ecological research, as well as conservation and restoration programs. High-resolution imagery has potential to facilitate such estimation and monitoring. However, remotely sensed estimates typically have higher uncertainty than field measurements, risking biased inference on population status. We present a model that accounts for false negative (missed plants) and false positive (misclassified or double-counted plants) error in counts from high-resolution imagery via integration with ground data. We apply it to estimate the abundance of a foundational shrub species in post-wildfire landscapes in the western United States. In these landscapes, plant recruitment is crucial for ecological recovery but locally patchy, motivating the use of spatially extensive measurements from unoccupied aerial systems (UAS). Integrating >16 ha of UAS imagery with >700 georeferenced field plots, we fit our model to generate insights into the prevalence and drivers of observation errors associated with classification algorithms used to distinguish individual plants, relationships between abundance and landscape context, and to generate spatially explicit maps of shrub abundance. Raw counts of plant abundance in high-resolution imagery resulted in substantial false negative and false positive observation errors. The probability of detecting ( p ) adult plants (≥0.25 m tall) varied between sites within 0.52 < p̂adult < 0.82, whereas the detection of smaller plants (<0.25 m) was lower, 0.03 < p̂small < 0.3. On average, we estimate that 19% of all detected plants were false positive errors, which varied spatially in relation to topographic predictors. Abundance declined toward the interior of previous wildfires and was positively associated with terrain roughness. Our study demonstrates that integrated models accounting for imperfect detection improve estimates of plant population abundance derived from inherently imperfect UAS imagery. We believe such models will further improve inference on plant population dynamics—relevant to restoration, wildlife habitat and related objectives—and echo previous calls for remote sensing applications to better differentiate between ecological and observational processes.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

DNA and dispersal models highlight constrained connectivity in a migratory marine megavertebrate

Population structure and spatial distribution are fundamentally important fields within ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. To investigate pan-Atlantic connectivity of globally endangered green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ) from two National Parks in Florida, USA, we applied a multidisciplinary approach comparing genetic analysis and ocean circulation modeling. The Everglades (EP) is a juvenile feeding ground, whereas the Dry Tortugas (DT) is used for courtship, breeding, and feeding by adults and juveniles. We sequenced two mitochondrial segments from 138 turtles sampled there from 2006-2015, and simulated oceanic transport to estimate their origins. Genetic and ocean connectivity data revealed northwestern Atlantic rookeries as the major natal sources, while southern and eastern Atlantic contributions were negligible. However, specific rookery estimates differed between genetic and ocean transport models. The combined analyses suggest that post-hatchling drift via ocean currents poorly explains the distribution of neritic juveniles and adults, but juvenile natal homing and population history likely play important roles. DT and EP were genetically similar to feeding grounds along the southern US coast, but highly differentiated from most other Atlantic groups. Despite expanded mitogenomic analysis and correspondingly increased ability to detect genetic variation, no significant differentiation between DT and EP, or among years, sexes or stages was observed. This first genetic analysis of a North Atlantic green turtle courtship area provides rare data supporting local movements and male philopatry. The study highlights the applications of multidisciplinary approaches for ecological research and conservation.

Florida↗

USGS2003

Comparing marine and terrestrial ecosystems: Implications for the design of coastal marine reserves

Concepts and theory for the design and application of terrestrial reserves is based on our understanding of environmental, ecological, and evolutionary processes responsible for biological diversity and sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems and how humans have influenced these processes. How well this terrestrial -based theory can be applied toward the design and application of reserves in the coastal marine environment depends, in part, on the degree of similarity between these systems. Several marked differences in ecological and evolutionary processes exist between marine and terrestrial ecosystems as ramifications of fundamental differences in their physical environments (i.e., the relative prevalence of air and water) and contemporary patterns of human impacts. Most notably, the great extent and rate of dispersal of nutrients, materials, holoplanktonic organisms, and reproductive propagules of benthic organisms expand scales of connectivity among near-shore communities and ecosystems . Consequently, the "openness" of marine populations, communities, and ecosystems probably has marked influences on their spatial, genetic, and trophic structures and dynamics in ways experienced by only some terrestrial species. Such differences appear to be particularly significant for the kinds of organisms most exploited and targeted for protection in coastal marine ecosystems (fishes and macroinvertebrates). These and other differences imply some unique design criteria and application of reserves in the marine environment. In explaining the implications of these differences for marine reserve design and application, we identify many of the environmental and ecological processes and design criteria necessary for consideration in the development of the analytical approaches developed elsewhere in this Special Issue.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2017

Reclamation after oil and gas development does not speed up succession or plant community recovery in big sagebrush ecosystems in Wyoming

Article for intended outlet: Restoration Ecology. Abstract: Reclamation is an application of treatment(s) following a disturbance to promote succession and accelerate the return of target conditions. Previous studies have framed reclamation in the context of succession by studying its effectiveness in re-establishing late-successional plant communities. Re-establishment of these plant communities is especially important and potentially challenging in regions such as drylands and shrub steppe ecosystems where succession proceeds slowly. Dryland shrub steppe ecosystems are frequently associated with areas rich in fossil-fuel energy sources, and as such the need for effective reclamation after disturbance from fossil-fuel-related energy development is great. Past research in this field has focused primarily on coal mines; few researchers have studied reclamation after oil and gas development. To address this research gap and to better understand the effect of reclamation on rates of succession in dryland shrub steppe ecosystems, we sampled oil and gas wellpads and adjacent undisturbed big sagebrush plant communities in Wyoming, USA and quantified the extent of recovery for major functional groups on reclaimed and unreclaimed (recovered via natural succession) wellpads relative to the undisturbed plant community. Reclamation increased the rate of recovery for all forb and grass species as a group and for perennial grasses, but did not affect other functional groups. Rather, analyses comparing recovery to environmental variables and time since wellpad abandonment showed that recovery of other groups were affected primarily by soil texture and time since wellpad abandonment. This is consistent with studies in other ecosystems where reclamation has been implemented, suggesting that reclamation may not help re-establish late-successional plant communities more quickly than they would re-establish naturally.

Wyoming↗

USGS2003

Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels

Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence–absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterised with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence–absence data arising from Pollock's robust capture–recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situations where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence–absence data on two species of herons. Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variations. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning metapopulation and community dynamics.

Oikos↗

USGS2021

Insect pathogenic fungi for biocontrol of plague vector fleas: A review

Bubonic plague is a lethal bacterial disease of great historical importance. The plague organism, Yersinia pestis , is primarily transmitted by fleas (Siphonaptera). In natural settings, where its range expands, Y. pestis resides in association with wild rodents and their fleas (sylvatic plague). While chemical insecticides are used against plague vector fleas, biological approaches have not been as critically evaluated. Benign and cost-effective control methods are sorely needed, particularly where imperiled species are at risk. Here we explore the potential of two representative insect pathogenic fungi, Beauveria bassiana Vuillemin 1912 (Hypocreales: Cordycipitaceae) and Metarhizium anisopliae Metschnikoff 1879 (Hypocreales: Clavicipitaceae), each already used commercially worldwide in large-scale agricultural applications, as candidate biopesticides for application against fleas. We review the life cycles, flea virulence, commercial production, and field application of these fungi, and ecological and safety considerations. Pathogenic fungi infections among natural flea populations suggest that conditions within at least some rodent burrows are favorable, and laboratory studies demonstrate lethality of these fungi to at least some representative flea species. Continued study and advancements with these fungi, under appropriate safety measures, may allow for effective biocontrol of plague vector fleas to protect imperiled species, decrease plague outbreaks in key rodent species, and limit plague in humans.

Journal of Integrated Pest Management↗

USGS2014

How much is new information worth? Evaluating the financial benefit of resolving management uncertainty

Conservation decision-makers face a trade-off between spending limited funds on direct management action, or gaining new information in an attempt to improve management performance in the future. Value-of-information analysis can help to resolve this trade-off by evaluating how much management performance could improve if new information was gained. Value-of-information analysis has been used extensively in other disciplines, but there are only a few examples where it has informed conservation planning, none of which have used it to evaluate the financial value of gaining new information. We address this gap by applying value-of-information analysis to the management of a declining koala Phascolarctos cinereus population. Decision-makers responsible for managing this population face uncertainty about survival and fecundity rates, and how habitat cover affects mortality threats. The value of gaining new information about these uncertainties was calculated using a deterministic matrix model of the koala population to find the expected population growth rate if koala mortality threats were optimally managed under alternative model hypotheses, which represented the uncertainties faced by koala managers. Gaining new information about survival and fecundity rates and the effect of habitat cover on mortality threats will do little to improve koala management. Across a range of management budgets, no more than 1·7% of the budget should be spent on resolving these uncertainties. The value of information was low because optimal management decisions were not sensitive to the uncertainties we considered. Decisions were instead driven by a substantial difference in the cost efficiency of management actions. The value of information was up to forty times higher when the cost efficiencies of different koala management actions were similar. Synthesis and applications . This study evaluates the ecological and financial benefits of gaining new information to inform a conservation problem. We also theoretically demonstrate that the value of reducing uncertainty is highest when it is not clear which management action is the most cost efficient. This study will help expand the use of value-of-information analyses in conservation by providing a cost efficiency metric by which to evaluate research or monitoring.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2014

Nutritional stress affects corticosterone deposition in feathers of Caspian tern chicks

Stressful environmental conditions affect the adrenocortical function of developing animals, which can have consequences for their fitness. Discovery of the avian stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in feathers has the potential to broaden the application of endocrine research in ecological and evolutionary studies of wild birds by providing a long-term measure of CORT secretion. Mechanisms of CORT deposition in feathers are not well known and few studies have related feather CORT to circulating plasma CORT during feather growth. Our objective was to experimentally test the validity of using feather CORT as a measure of CORT secretion in developing birds experiencing nutritional stress. Caspian tern Hydroprogne caspia chicks were fed ad libitum or restricted (35% less than ad libitum) diets for four weeks. We measured CORT in feathers from these chicks to examine the relationship between feather CORT concentrations and nutritional limitation, circulating plasma CORT, and feather development. We found that feather CORT was higher in controls fed ad libitum than in restricted individuals, despite higher levels of plasma CORT in restricted chicks compared to controls. Feather mass and growth rates were strongly and positively related to feather CORT concentrations in both treatments. This is the first experimental study to show that feather CORT concentrations can be lower in response to nutritional stress, even when plasma CORT concentrations are elevated. Our results indicate that CORT deposition in feathers may be confounded when feather mass and growth rates are compromised by nutritional stress. We conclude that feather CORT can be used for assessing nutritional stress in growing birds, but the direction of response depends on how strongly stress affects feather development.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2023

Evaluating the institutional and ecological effects of invasive species prevention policy: A case study from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Wildlife and natural resource institutions play key roles in invasive species monitoring and management. Paradoxically, the extensive fieldwork undertaken by these institutions and their partners may result in the inadvertent movement and spread of invasive species within and between sensitive ecosystems. In this work, we consider the potential effects of internal guidelines and policies designed to prevent the spread of invasive species by the field activities of management institutions and their partners. Such policies could be high-leverage tools for invasive species prevention, however, as large, complex organizations seek to implement policies to limit the spread of invasive species, it may be challenging to accommodate the wide diversity of potential invasion pathways and mitigation efforts facilitated via the programs, activities, and ecosystems they manage. Prevention policies may also be met with resistance due to the costs of implementation unless concrete benefits can be demonstrated. Assessing and communicating the effects of prevention policies could motivate improved implementation and adherence by institutional units and partners and could help inform adaptive policy changes. However, assessing the effectiveness of invasive species prevention presents a unique set of challenges, including incomplete data on invasive species distribution and pathways, that make it difficult to measure the effects of prevention efforts. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for evaluating institutional policies for invasive species prevention. We describe a flexible, multifaceted approach that considers policy implementation and adherence as well as ecological outcomes. We discuss potential application of this framework using a policy recently implemented by the Pacific Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to prevent the introduction and spread of invasive species by service personnel and partners during field activities as a case study.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

USGS2000

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Program: Coastal Characterization: an overview and update

The U.S. Geological Surveys Biological Resources Division (BRD) mission is to provide leadership in gathering, analyzing, and disseminating biological information as support for sound management of the Nation's natural resources. Since becoming operational in October of 1996 through the transfer of programs from various bureaus within the Department of the Interior, the BRD, in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local partners, has begun research, inventory and monitoring, information sharing, and technology transfer. Through these activities, the BRD is fostering an understanding of biological systems and their benefits to society, and providing the essential scientific support and technical assistance required for management and policy decisions. The role of BRD' s National Wetlands Research Center (NWRC) in Lafayette, Louisiana, with project offices in Baton Rouge, LA and Gulf Breeze, FL, is to provide leadership in research and development related to the Nation's natural resources for the Southeast. The research focuses on wetlands ecology, animal ecology, and the development and application of spatial analysis techniques for natural resource related studies. Current geographic information system (GIS) technologies in use at NWRC are designed to provide natural resource managers with the on-line data and computerized techniques necessary to make informed decisions. Major GIS activities at NWRC include: compilation and analysis of digital databases for monitoring of natural resources; integration and transfer of databases with existing digital databases from various sources into a comprehensive GIS; and development of multifunctional decision support systems for natural resource managers using these data. NWRC is also an active participant in the National Information Infrastructure (NIT), in particular the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBTI), which will facilitate the dissemination of research results and other knowledge and information gained from these efforts. This summary and the three summaries that follow provides an overview and update of a four year study entitled, Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Program: Coastal Characterization.

Minerals Management Service↗

USGS2010

Assessment and management of ecological integrity: Chapter 12

Assessing and understanding the impacts of human activities on aquatic ecosystems has long been a focus of ecologists, water resources managers, and fisheries scientists. While traditional fisheries management focused on single-species approaches to enhance fish stocks, there is a growing emphasis on management approaches at community and ecosystem levels. Of course, as fisheries managers shift their attention from narrow (e.g., populations) to broad organizational scales (e.g., communities or ecosystems), ecological processes and management objectives become more complex. At the community level, fisheries managers may strive for a fish assemblage that is complex, persistent, and resilient to disturbance. Aquatic ecosystem level objectives may focus on management for habitat quality and ecological processes, such as nutrient dynamics, productivity, or trophic interactions, but a long-term goal of ecosystem management may be to maintain ecological integrity. However, human users and social, economic, and political demands of fisheries management often result in a reduction of ecological integrity in managed systems, and this conflict presents a principal challenge for the modern fisheries manager. The concepts of biotic integrity and ecological integrity are being applied in fisheries science, natural resource management, and environmental legislation, but explicit definitions of these terms are elusive. Biotic integrity of an ecosystem may be defined as the capability of supporting and maintaining an integrated, adaptive community of organisms having a species composition, diversity, and functional organization comparable to that of a natural habitat of the region (Karr and Dudley 1981). Following that, ecological integrity is the summation of chemical, physical, and biological integrity. Thus, the concept of ecological integrity extends beyond fish and represents a holistic approach for ecosystem management that is especially applicable to aquatic systems. The more general term, ecological condition, refers to the state of the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the environment and the processes and interactions that connect them. While the concept of ecological integrity may appear unambiguous, its assessment and practice are much less clear. Ecological integrity made its debut in the USA with the Clean Water Act (CWA) of 1972 (Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as amended through Public Law 107–303, November 27, 2002), which states only one objective, “to restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters.” This legislation compelled resource managers to focus on chemical pollution from point effluent sources, such as industrial and municipal outflows, as well as give attention to diffuse, chronic, and watershed effects on ecological integrity. Further, the CWA allowed pursuit of restoration programs in degraded water bodies and catalyzed the science and practice of restoration ecology. The term ecosystem health is often raised in discussions of ecological integrity. Perhaps it is natural to anthropomorphize our concern for personal health to ecosystems, so it becomes a useful metaphor for understanding the concept of ecological integrity. However, whether or not an ecosystem should be considered an entity, such as a superorganism, is a debate without end that began with early ecologists and continues today (Clements 1916; Suter 1993; Simon 1999a). Regardless, the ecosystem is indeed a natural unit with a level of organization and properties beyond the collection of those species that occupy it and presents the most appropriate spatial and organizational scale in which to assess and study ecological integrity. Streams and rivers serve as integrators of chemical, physical, and biological conditions across the landscape, and while the theory and practice associated with ecological integrity of aquatic systems is easily applied to flowing waters and is emphasized in this chapter, they are broadly applicable among all aquatic systems.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Evaluating hydrologic data products for scientific and management applications related to potential future streamflow conditions in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

The hydrology of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers is a fundamental driver of ecosystem patterns and processes across a large portion of the United States. Quantitative hydrologic data for the main stems of these rivers underlie numerous scientific investigations, statistical models, and decision-making processes for local, State, and Federal agencies involved in the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program. Although historical hydrologic data exist, data representing potential future conditions of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers lack the resolution necessary to anticipate biotic and abiotic responses to altered hydrology and to determine resilient management actions. A source of future hydrologic scenarios is the readily available LOCA–VIC–mizuRoute hydrologic data products (named for the chain of models the data are produced from—localized constructed analogs, Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model, and the mizuRoute hydrologic routing model—that we shorten further to LVM in this report) that include simulated discharges for historic and future timeframes. The objective of this study is to assess the reliability of the hydrologic data products for their use in Upper Mississippi River Restoration program applications. Key study questions are (1) do the hydrologic data products reproduce characteristics of hydrology necessary to support ecological modeling and restoration decision-making applications within the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program? and (2) are there geographic differences in the reliability of the hydrologic data products? Seven characteristics of river hydrology were selected related to flow magnitude, seasonality, and regime for evaluation. The seven characteristics were calculated using observed and historical simulated hydrologic data at 19 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages throughout the basins of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers; two streamgages are located on the main stem of the Mississippi River and two streamgages are located on the main stem of the Illinois River. Statistical comparisons between observed and historical simulated characteristics indicated that the hydrologic data products did not reliably represent historical hydrologic conditions in the basin or main stem. The hydrologic data products we evaluated could not reliably capture the overall hydrologic regime or flow magnitudes; the latter is evidenced by substantial underestimates of discharge at most streamgages. Seasonal hydrologic characteristics were captured more reliably than flow magnitude, but overall correspondence was low for most streamgages. A weak latitudinal pattern in seasonal characteristics indicated the hydrologic data products poorly represent streamflow timing in snow-affected regions of the basin. Discrepancies in magnitude, seasonality, and regime indicate the potential for multiple sources of error. Because poor correspondence was present across all 19 streamgages, it was not possible to identify specific drivers of poor performance (that is, drainage area or geography). The modeling chain should be evaluated for biases associated with meteorologic forcing data, as well as hydrologic model formulation and calibration. We conclude that the hydrologic data products we evaluated appear unsuitable for applications tied to habitat and ecosystem restoration and management in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Plans to develop a future hydrology dataset for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program would benefit from ongoing work to improve global climate model output downscaling methods, to improve hydrologic models, to make use of innovations in machine-learning approaches for projecting hydrology, and other efforts. The framework developed herein to evaluate hydrometeorological outputs generated using global climate models for a specific water resources application is a transferrable approach that could be applied to other data products and river systems.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Sout↗

USGS2022

Species distributions and the recognition of risk in restoration planning: A case study of salmonid fishes

One of the risks faced by habitat restoration practitioners is whether habitats included in restoration planning will be used by the target species or, conversely, whether habitats excluded from restoration planning would have benefited the target species. With the goal of providing a quantitative decision-making approach that represented varying levels of risk tolerance, we used multiple probability decision thresholds (PDT) to predict the range of occurrence for three anadromous fishes ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in a watershed in southwestern Washington, USA. For each species, we compared the predicted range of occurrence to the distribution used for restoration planning and quantified the amount of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers. Coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) had the broadest predicted range of occurrence (3061.6–6357.9 km; 0.75–0.25 PDT), followed by steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ; 1828.8–2836.8 km) and chum salmon ( O. keta ; 1373.9–1629.1 km). For each species, the predicted range of occurrence was similar or greater than the distribution used for restoration planning, suggesting that the current plan may exclude habitats that would benefit each species. Coho salmon had the greatest percentage of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers, followed by steelhead trout and chum salmon, respectively. Modeling species distributions at multiple risk-tolerance scenarios acknowledges uncertainty in restoration planning and allows practitioners to weigh the ecological benefits and budgetary constraints when considering locations for restoration. To effectively communicate restoration science to support practitioners in decision-making, we developed an R Shiny application online user interface available at: https://shiny.wdfw-fish.us/ChehalisRiverBasinSalmonidRangeOfOccurence/ .

Washington↗

USGS2003

Ecological criteria for evaluating candidate sites for marine reserves

Several schemes have been developed to help select the locations of marine reserves. All of them combine social, economic, and biological criteria, and few offer any guidance as to how to prioritize among the criteria identified. This can imply that the relative weights given to different criteria are unimportant. Where two sites are of equal value ecologically, then socioeconomic criteria should dominate the choice of which should be protected. However, in many cases, socioeconomic criteria are given equal or greater weight than ecological considerations in the choice of sites. This can lead to selection of reserves with little biological value that fail to meet many of the desired objectives. To avoid such a possibility, we develop a series of criteria that allow preliminary evaluation of candidate sites according to their relative biological values in advance of the application of socioeconomic criteria. We include criteria that, while not strictly biological, have a strong influence on the species present or ecological processes. Our scheme enables sites to be assessed according to their biodiversity, the processes which underpin that diversity, and the processes that support fisheries and provide a spectrum of other services important to people. Criteria that capture biodiversity values include biogeographic representation, habitat representation and heterogeneity, and presence of species or populations of special interest (e.g., threatened species). Criteria that capture sustainability of biodiversity and fishery values include the size of reserves necessary to protect viable habitats, presence of exploitable species, vulnerable life stages, connectivity among reserves, links among ecosystems, and provision of ecosystem services to people. Criteria measuring human and natural threats enable candidate sites to be eliminated from consideration if risks are too great, but also help prioritize among sites where threats can be mitigated by protection. While our criteria can be applied to the design of reserve networks, they also enable choice of single reserves to be made in the context of the attributes of existing protected areas. The overall goal of our scheme is to promote the development of reserve networks that will maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning at large scales. The values of ecosystem goods and services for people ultimately depend on meeting this objective.

Ecological Applications↗