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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

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At least 649 records · Page 36Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D 2 , +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

Fine-resolution land cover mapping over large and mountainous areas for Lāna‘i, Hawaii using posterior probabilities, and expert knowledge

The task of accurately mapping species-specific vegetation cover in remote and topographically complex regions like those found in Hawaiʻi presents unique challenges. This study leverages a machine learning approach to accurately classify vegetation into fine species-specific classes across the island of Lāna‘i, Hawaii, offering a novel methodology for tackling such challenges. Utilizing high-resolution WordView-2 satellite imagery, a neural network classifier and a custom lidar-based geometric correction, we introduced two new approaches to refine our high-resolution land cover classifications. This included the implementation of prior-based adjustments to class posterior probabilities to enhance land cover classification accuracy. Moreover, we developed mixed hierarchical classification maps that use class posterior probabilities to identify, at the pixel level, the finest land cover class that meets a user-defined confidence threshold. The resulting high-resolution land cover map for Lāna‘i captures the rich diversity and distribution of native and invasive plant species with high overall accuracy, generally exceeding 95%, based on independent ground control data. The capacity to produce wall-to-wall species-level vegetation maps provides a new window into monitoring vegetation dynamics on Lāna‘i and similarly remote and topographically complex regions, and contributes to our broader understanding of ecosystem responses to invasive species, climatic changes, and land management practices such as erosion and sediment control planning. Our approach offers a blueprint for similar efforts in other complex and remote ecosystems.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley

Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in water allocation as well as persistent drought conditions. Grasslands and shrublands declined, while developed lands increased in former agricultural and grassland/shrublands. Development rates stagnated in 2007, coinciding with the onset of the historic foreclosure crisis in California and the global economic downturn. We utilized annual LULCC estimates to generate interval-based LULCC estimates (2000–2005 and 2005–2010) and extend existing 27 year interval-based land change monitoring through 2010. Resulting change data provides insights into the drivers of landscape change in the Central California Valley ecoregion and represents the first, continuous, 37 year mapping effort of its kind.

California↗

USGS2023

Critical review of the phytohemagglutinin assay for assessing amphibian immunity

Infectious diseases are a major driver of the global amphibian decline. In addition, many factors, including genetics, stress, pollution, and climate change can influence the response to pathogens. Therefore, it is important to be able to evaluate amphibian immunity in the laboratory and in the field. The phytohemagglutinin (PHA) assay is an inexpensive and relatively non-invasive tool that has been used extensively to assess immunocompetence, especially in birds, and more recently in amphibians. However, there is substantial variation in experimental methodology among amphibian PHA studies in terms of species and life stages, PHA doses and injection sites, and use of experimental controls. Here, we compile and compare all known PHA studies in amphibians to identify knowledge gaps and develop best practices for future work. We found that research has only been conducted on a limited number of species, which may not reflect the diversity of amphibians. There is also a lack of validation studies in most species, so that doses and timing of PHA injection and subsequent swelling measurements may not effectively evaluate immunocompetence. Based on these and other findings, we put forward a set of recommendations to make future PHA studies more consistent and improve the ability to utilize this assay in wild populations, where immune surveillance is greatly needed.

Conservation Physiology↗

USGS2024

The relationship between maturation size and maximum tree size from tropical to boreal climates

The fundamental trade-off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a proportionately larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tree maturation size remain unavailable and we lack a global view on the generality and the shape of this trade-off. Using seed production from five continents, we estimate tree maturation sizes for 486 tree pecies spanning tropical to boreal climates. Results show that a species’ maturation size increases with maximum size, but in a non-proportional way: the largest species begin reproduction at smaller sizes than would be expected if maturation size were simply proportional to maximum size. Furthermore, the decrease in relative maturation size is steepest in cold climates. These findings on maturation size drivers are key to accurately represent forests’ responses to disturbance and climate change.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2002

Growth responses of subalpine fir to climatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

We studied regional variation in growth-limiting factors and responses to climatic variability in subalpine forests by analyzing growth patterns for 28 tree-ring growth chronologies from subalpine fir ( Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) stands in the Cascade and Olympic Mountains (Washington and Oregon, U.S.A.). Factor analysis identified four distinct time series of common growth patterns; the dominant growth pattern at any site varied with annual precipitation and temperature (elevation). Throughout much of the region, growth is negatively correlated with winter precipitation and spring snowpack depth, indicating that growth is limited primarily by short growing seasons. On the driest and warmest sites, growth is negatively correlated with previous summer temperature, suggesting that low summer soil moisture limits growth. Growth patterns in two regions were sensitive to climatic variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, apparently responding to low-frequency variation in spring snowpack and summer soil moisture (one negatively, one positively). This regional-scale analysis shows that subalpine fir growth in the Cascades and Olympics is limited by different climatic factors in different subregional climates. Climate–growth relationships are similar to those for a co-occurring species, mountain hemlock ( Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière), suggesting broad biogeographic patterns of response to climatic variability and change by subalpine forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2017

Upper thermal limits of growth in brook trout and their relationship to stress physiology

Despite the threat of climate change, the physiological mechanisms responsible for reduced performance at high temperatures remain unclear for most species. Elevated but sublethal temperatures may act via endocrine and cellular stress responses to limit performance in important life-history traits such as growth. Here, brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) subjected to chronically elevated or daily oscillating temperatures were monitored for growth and physiological stress responses. Growth rate decreased at temperatures above 16°C and was negative at 24°C, with an estimated upper limit for positive growth of 23.4°C. Plasma cortisol increased with temperature and was 12- and 18-fold higher at 22 and 24°C, respectively, than at 16°C, whereas plasma glucose was unaffected by temperature. Abundance of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) in the gill increased with temperature and was 11- and 56-fold higher at 22°C and 24°C, respectively, than at 16°C. There was no relationship between temperature and plasma Cl − , but there was a 53% and 80% decrease in gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity and abundance at 24°C in comparison with 16°C. Daily temperature oscillations of 4°C or 8°C (19–23°C or 17–25°C) were compared with 21°C controls. Growth rate decreased with temperature and was 43% and 35% lower by length and mass, respectively, in the 8°C daily oscillation treatment than in the controls. There was no effect of temperature oscillation on plasma cortisol or glucose levels. In contrast, gill HSP70 abundance increased with increasing daily oscillation and was 40- and 700-fold greater at 4°C and 8°C daily oscillation, respectively, than in the constant temperature controls. In individuals exposed to 17–25°C diel oscillations for 4 days and then allowed to recover at 21°C, gill HSP70 abundance was still elevated after 4 days recovery, but not after 10 days. Our results demonstrate that elevated temperatures induce cellular and endocrine stress responses and provide a possible mechanism by which growth is limited at elevated temperatures. Temperature limitations on growth may play a role in driving brook trout distributions in the wild.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗

USGS2012

Fuel treatment impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, and Arizona

Using forests to sequester carbon in response to anthropogenically induced climate change is being considered across the globe. A recent U.S. executive order mandated that all federal agencies account for sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of understanding how forest carbon stocks are influenced by wildfire. This paper reports the effects of the most common forest fuel reduction treatments on carbon pools composed of live and dead biomass as well as potential wildfire emissions from six different sites in four western U.S. states. Additionally, we predict the median forest product life spans and uses of materials removed during mechanical treatments. Carbon loss from modeled wildfire-induced tree mortality was lowest in the mechanical plus prescribed fire treatments, followed by the prescribed fire-only treatments. Wildfire emissions varied from 10–80 Mg/ha and were lowest in the prescribed fire and mechanical followed by prescribed fire treatments at most sites. Mean biomass removals per site ranged from approximately 30–60 dry Mg/ha; the median lives of products in first use varied considerably (from <10 to >50 years). Our research suggests most of the benefits of increased fire resistance can be achieved with relatively small reductions in current carbon stocks. Retaining or growing larger trees also reduced the vulnerability of carbon loss from wildfire. In addition, modeled vulnerabilities to carbon losses and median forest product life spans varied considerably across our study sites, which could be used to help prioritize treatment implementation.

California, Oregon, Montana, Arizona↗

USGS2015

Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2007

A view of Antarctic ice-sheet evolution from sea-level and deep-sea Isotope Changes During the Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic

The imperfect direct record of Antarctic glaciation has led to the delayed recognition of the initiation of a continentsized ice sheet. Early studies interpreted initiation in the middle Miocene (ca 15 Ma). Most current studies place the first ice sheet in the earliest Oligocene (33.55 Ma), but there is physical evidence for glaciation in the Eocene. Though there are inherent limitations in sea-level and deep-sea isotope records, both place constraints on the size and extent of Late Cretaceous to Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheets. Sealevel records argue that small- to medium-size (typically 10-12 × 10 6 km3 ) ephemeral ice sheets occurred during the greenhouse world of the Late Cretaceous to middle Eocene. Deep-sea δ 18 O records show increases associated with many of these greenhouse sea-level falls, consistent with their attribution to ice-sheet growth. Global cooling began in the middle Eocene and culminated with the major earliest Oligocene (33.55 Ma) growth of a large (25 × 10 6 km 3 ) Antarctic ice sheet that caused a 55-70 m eustatic fall and a 1‰ δ 18 O increase. This large ice sheet became a driver of climate change, not just a response to it, causing increased latitudinal thermal gradients and a spinning up of the oceans that, in turn, caused a dramatic reorganization of ocean circulation and chemistry.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Tillamook Bay tributaries and Nehalem River basin, northwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Tillamook (drainage area 156 square kilometers [km 2 ]), Trask (451 km 2 ), Wilson (500 km 2 ), Kilchis (169 km 2 ), Miami (94 km 2 ), and Nehalem (2,207 km 2 ) Rivers along the northwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted in coopera-tion with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Oregon Department of State Lands to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: Study areas along the six rivers can be divided into reaches based on tidal influence and topography. The fluvial (nontidal or dominated by riverine processes) reaches vary in length (2.4-9.3 kilometer [km]), gradient (0.0011-0.0075 meter of elevation change per meter of channel length [m/m]), and bed-material composition (a mixture of alluvium and intermittent bedrock outcrops to predominately alluvium). In fluvial reaches, unit bar area (square meter of bar area per meter of channel length [m 2 /m]) as mapped from 2009 photographs ranged from 7.1 m 2 /m on the Tillamook River to 27.9 m 2 /m on the Miami River. In tidal reaches, all six rivers flow over alluvial deposits, but have varying gradients (0.0001-0.0013 m/m) and lengths affected by tide (1.3-24.6 km). The Miami River has the steepest and shortest tidal reach and the Nehalem River has the flattest and longest tidal reach. Bars in the tidal reaches are generally composed of sand and mud. Unit bar area was greatest in the Tidal Nehalem Reach, where extensive mud flats flank the lower channel. Background factors such as valley and channel confinement, basin geology, channel slope, and tidal extent control the spatial variation in the accumulation and texture of bed material. Presently, the Upper Fluvial Wilson and Miami Reaches and Fluvial Nehalem Reach have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to local bed-material sources in combination with decreasing channel gradient and valley confinement. Natural and human-caused disturbances such as mass movements, logging, fire, channel modifications for navigation and flood control, and gravel mining also have varying effects on channel condition, bed-material transport, and distribution and area of bars throughout the study areas and over time. Existing datasets include at least 16 and 18 sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study areas in the Tillamook Bay tributary basins and Nehalem River basin, respectively, from 1939 to 2011. These photographs are available for future assessments of long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. High resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) surveys acquired in 2007-2009 could support future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport in all study areas. A review of deposited and mined gravel volumes reported for instream gravel mining sites shows that bed-material deposition tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Mean annual deposition volumes on individual bars exceeded 3,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) on Donaldson Bar on the Wilson River, Dill Bar on the Kilchis River, and Plant and Winslow Bars on the Nehalem River. Cumulative reported volumes of bed-material deposition were greatest at Donaldson and Dill Bars, totaling over 25,000 m 3 per site from 2004 to 2011. Within this period, reported cumulative mined volumes were greatest for the Donaldson, Plant, and Winslow Bars, ranging from 24,470 to 33,940 m 3 . Analysis of historical stage-streamflow data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Wilson River near Tillamook (14301500) and Nehalem River near Foss (14301000) shows that these rivers have episodically aggraded and incised, mostly following high flow events, but they do not exhibit systematic, long-term trends in bed elevation. Multiple cross sections show that channels near bridge crossings in all six study areas are dynamic with many subject to incision and aggradation as well as lateral shifts in thalweg position and bank deposition and erosion. In fluvial reaches, unit bar area declined a net 5.3-83.6 percent from 1939 to 2009. The documented reduction in bar area may be attributable to several factors, including vegetation establishment and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces, lateral channel changes and resulting alterations in sediment deposition and erosion patterns, and streamflow and/or tide differences between photographs. Other factors that may be associated with the observed reduction in bar area but not assessed in this reconnaissance level study include changes in the sediment and hydrology regimes of these rivers over the analysis period. In tidal reaches, unit bar area increased on the Tillamook and Nehalem Rivers (98.0 and 14.7 percent, respectively), but declined a net 24.2 to 83.1 percent in the other four tidal reaches. Net increases in bar area in the Tidal Tillamook and Nehalem Reaches were possibly attributable to tidal differences between the photographs as well as sediment deposition behind log booms and pile structures on the Tillamook River between 1939 and 1967. The armoring ratio (ratio of the median grain sizes of a bar's surface and subsurface layers) was 1.6 at Lower Waldron Bar on the Miami River, tentatively indicating a relative balance between transport capacity and sediment supply at this location. Armoring ratios, however, ranged from 2.4 to 5.5 at sites on the Trask, Wilson, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers; these coarse armor layers probably reflect limited bed-material supply at these sites. On the basis of mapping results, measured armoring ratios, and channel cross section surveys, preliminary conclusions are that the fluvial reaches on the Tillamook, Trask, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers are currently sediment supply-limited in terms of bed material - that is, the transport capacity of the channel generally exceeds the supply of bed material. The relation between transport capacity and sediment is more ambiguous for the fluvial reaches on the Wilson and Miami Rivers, but transport-limited conditions are likely for at least parts of these reaches. Some of these reaches have possibly evolved from sediment supply-limited to transport-limited over the last several decades in response to changing basin and climate conditions. Because of exceedingly low gradients, all the tidal reaches are transport-limited. Bed material in these reaches, however, is primarily sand and finer grain-size material and probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. These reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to basins on the southwestern Oregon coast, such as the Chetco and Rogue River basins, these six basins likely transport overall less gravel bed material. Although tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements, this conclusion is supported by the much lower area and frequency of bars and longer tidal reaches along all the northcoast rivers examined in this study. Previous studies suggest that the expansive and largely unvegetated bars visible in the 1939 photographs are primarily associated with voluminous sedimentation starting soon after the first Tillamook Burn fire in 1933. However, USGS studies of temporal bar trends in other Oregon coastal rivers unaffected by the Tillamook Burn show similar declines in bar area over approximately the same analysis period. In the Umpqua and Chetco River basins, historical declines in bar area are associated with long-term decreases in flood magnitude. Other factors may include changes in the type and volume of large wood and riparian vegetation. Further characterization of hydrology patterns in these basins and possible linkages with climate factors related to flood peaks, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, could support inferences of expected future changes in vegetation establishment and channel planform and profile. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the fluvial study areas on the Wilson, Kilchis, Miami, and Nehalem Rivers and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. Tidal reaches may also be logical subjects for indepth analysis where studies would be more relevant to the deposition and transport of fine sediment (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch ( Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration ( R H ) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat absorption (3.3 ± 1.24 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 ) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the climate system.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Vegetative response to water availability on the San Carlos Apache Reservation

On the San Carlos Apache Reservation in east-central Arizona, U.S.A., vegetation types such as ponderosa pine forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, and grasslands have significant ecological, cultural, and economic value for the Tribe. This value extends beyond the tribal lands and across the Western United States. Vegetation across the Southwestern United States is susceptible to drought conditions and fluctuating water availability. Remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to measure and monitor spatial and temporal vegetative response to fluctuating water availability conditions. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index II (MSAVI 2 ) to measure the condition of three dominant vegetation types (ponderosa pine forest, woodland, and grassland) in response to two fluctuating environmental variables: precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study period covered 2002 through 2014 and focused on a region within the San Carlos Apache Reservation. We determined that grassland and woodland had a similar moderate to strong, year-round, positive relationship with precipitation as well as with summer SPEI. This suggests that these vegetation types respond negatively to drought conditions and are more susceptible to initial precipitation deficits. Ponderosa pine forest had a comparatively weaker relationship with monthly precipitation and summer SPEI, indicating that it is more buffered against short-term drought conditions. This research highlights the response of multiple, dominant vegetation types to seasonal and inter-annual water availability. This research demonstrates that multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be an effective tool for the large scale detection of vegetation response to adverse impacts from climate change and support potential management practices such as increased monitoring and management of drought-affected areas. Different vegetation types displayed various responses to water availability, further highlighting the need for individual management plans for forest and woodland, especially considering the projected drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. and other arid or semi-arid regions around the world.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Hydrologic modeling for flow-ecology science in the Southeastern United States and Puerto Rico

An understanding of the applicability and utility of hydrologic models is critical to support the effective management of water resources throughout the Southeastern United States (SEUS) and Puerto Rico (PR). Hydrologic models have the capacity to provide an estimate of the quantity of available water at ungauged locations (i.e., areas of the country where a U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] continuous record gauge is not installed) and provide the baseline flow information necessary to develop the linkages between water availability and characteristics of streamflow that support ecological communities (i.e., support the development of flow-ecology response models). This report inventories and then directly examines and compares a subset of hydrologic models used to estimate streamflow at a number of gauged basins across the SEUS and PR. This effort was designed to evaluate, quantify, and compare the magnitude of error and to investigate the potential causes of error associated with predicted streamflows from seven hydrologic models of varying complexity and calibration strategy. This was accomplished by computing and then comparing classical hydrologic model fit statistics (e.g., mean bias, coefficient of determination [R2], root mean squared error [RMSE], Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency [NSE]) and understanding the bias in the prediction in these and a subset of ecologically relevant flow metrics (ERFMs). Additionally, streamflow predictions from a larger regional-scale hydrologic model were compared to those of several fine-scale hydrologic models under a range of hypothetical climate change scenarios to determine the range of predicted streamflow responses to fixed climate perturbations. A pilot study was conducted using predicted streamflow and boosted regression trees to develop a set of predictive flow-ecology response models to assess the potential change in fish species richness in the North Carolina Piedmont under several scenarios of water availability change. This report is intended to provide a general assessment of all the tools and techniques available to support hydrologic modeling for flow-ecology science in the SEUS and PR. It is our hope that the approach used herein to understand differences in streamflow predictions among a subset of hydrologic models that have been applied in the SEUS for developing flow-ecology response models will provide water resource managers and stakeholders with an informed pathway for developing the capacity to link streamflow and ecological response and an understanding of some of the limitations associated with these type of modeling efforts.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Caro↗

USGS2019

Climate change effects on deer and moose in the midwest

Climate change is an increasing concern for wildlife managers across the United States and Canada. Because climate change may alter populations and harvest dynamics of key species in the region, midwestern states have identified the effects of climate change on ungulates as a priority research area. We conducted a literature review of projected climate change in the Midwest and the potential effects on white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and moose ( Alces alces ). Warmer temperatures and decreasing snowpack in the region favor survival of white‐tailed deer. In contrast, moose may become physiologically stressed in response to warming, and increasing deer populations spreading disease will exacerbate the problem. Although there is some uncertainty about exactly how the climate will change, and to what degree, robust projections suggest that deer populations will increase in response to climate change and moose populations will decrease. Managers can begin preparing for these changes by proactively creating management plans that take this into account.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2009

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic climate-response program in Maine

It is important to monitor hydrologic systems in the United States that could change dramatically over the short term as a result of climate change. Many ecological effects of climate change can be understood only if hydrologic data networks are in place. Because of its humid, temperate climate and its substantial annual snowpack, Maine’s seasonal water cycle is sensitive to air temperature changes (Hodgkins and others, 2003). Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. A series of recent investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented changes in several components of the water cycle, including earlier snowmelt runoff in Maine during the last 30 to 40 years (Hodgkins and others, 2003), earlier lake- and river-ice breakups (Hodgkins and others, 2002; Hodgkins and others, 2005), and a denser and thinner late-winter snowpack (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006). Snowmelt runoff timing was measured as the date, each year, by which half of the total winter-spring streamflow passed a streamflow-gaging station. Historical snowmelt runoff timing for the Piscataquis River in central Maine is shown in figure 1 as an example. Results of climate projections input to hydrologic models indicate that hydrologic trends, such as earlier spring snowmelt runoff, are expected to continue into the future (Hayhoe and others, 2007). These trends could affect species at the southern edge of their range in Maine, such as Atlantic salmon and Canada lynx, and may also affect availability of water for human use. This fact sheet describes the framework of a hydrologic climate-response program that would improve understanding of the effects of future climate change in Maine.

Maine↗

USGS2024

Modeling the responses of blue carbon fluxes in Mississippi River Deltaic Plain brackish marshes to climate change induced hydrologic conditions

Carbon fluxes in tidal brackish marshes play a critical role in determining coastal wetland carbon sequestration and storage, thus affecting carbon crediting of coastal wetland restoration. In this study, a process-driven wetland biogeochemistry model, Wetland Carbon Assessment Tool DeNitrification-DeComposition was applied to nine brackish marsh sites in Mississippi River (MR) Deltaic Plain to examine the responses of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to climate change. Simulations of a normal hydrologic year (2013), dry year (2011) and wet year (2021), and a hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) case were conducted as climate change scenarios. These climate change scenarios were determined by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Northeast Division of Coastal Louisiana during 2001–2021. Model results showed that GPP, ER, NEE, CH 4 , and N 2 O vary with site, and these brackish marshes lost carbon (net CO 2 emission) due to large reduction in primary productivity under the climate scenarios, as well as even during the normal hydrologic year. Average cross-site NEE were 148, 140 and 132 g C m −2 yr −1 in the dry, wet, and normal years (all net loss of wetland C). Under the hypothetical SLR, NEE were reduced by -25% compared to the normal year, but GPP and NPP were declined by -40% and -70%, respectively. These results suggest that climate change induced changes in soil salinity and water table depth will exacerbate carbon loss from tidal brackish marshes.

Louisiana↗

USGS2019

Downstream‐propagating channel responses to decadal‐scale climate variability in a glaciated river basin

Regional climate is an important control on the rate of coarse sediment mobilization and transport in alpine river systems. Changes in climate are then expected to cause a cascade of geomorphic responses, including adjustments in downstream channel morphology. However, the mechanics and sensitivity of channel response to short‐term climate variability remain poorly documented. In the Nooksack River, which drains a glaciated stratovolcano in Washington State, bed elevation changes were inferred from shifting stage–discharge relations at seven USGS stream gages. Decadal‐scale elevation trends at most sites can be explained as a downstream‐propagating channel response to regional climate variability, where periods of persistent warm, dry [cool, wet] conditions corresponded to periods of aggradation [incision]. The channel elevation response propagated downstream at a rate of one to four kilometers per year; propagation rate scaled closely with channel slope. Historical trends in glacier extent and flood intensity both show some potential to explain climate–sediment linkages, though assessing causation is complicated by the shared climate signal in both records. Results show the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with relatively high coarse sediment yields prior to 1950 and since 1980, and notably lower sediment yields from 1950 to 1980. Measured sediment yields from nearby glaciated basins corroborate this history, suggesting a regional coherence to these climate–sediment linkages. These results document consistent relations between climate, sediment supply and downstream channel response at the basin‐scale, with channel responses propagating downstream over periods of decades with little apparent attenuation.

Washington↗